Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Ziad Daoud & Michael Nierenberg

When the rest of the markets slow down, the futures market keeps moving.

Did you know that CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with

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In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessons after 4 p.m. until the next morning.

But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night.

Learn more at cmegrope.com slash equity futures.

So there's a lot of noise about AI, but times too tight for more promises.

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Single best idea.

After an exhausting week and just a little backstory here, it's the time in this week Alexa's

story.

And behind us are without exaggeration, 20 full-time people just trying to make it go to get

from Nathan Hager to get to what we're doing to get on to Carolyn Tim in the afternoon.

But around that, I'm not kidding, just a hundred full-time people in the Middle East.

And I'm probably under that.

It's probably 200 is well.

All sorts of conversations today on the war.

It's economic impact as well.

Ed Morse with us yesterday from Hartree.

Thank you for the response to that.

Zayah Dowd is out of the London School of Economics.

Quite definitive.

He was a Kennedy fellow at Harvard.

And he calls court as our EM economist, a report that went worldwide last night on how

we get to $165 oil, briefly, the middle of this year, and all of it because of a scope

and scale of the straight of our moves.

Let's listen.

It is large.

And it's large and concentrated.

If you think about it, what it transports, it transports oil and gas and energy from the

Middle East to the rest of the world, and the rest of the world sends almost everything

else of the Middle East needs through that straight.

So it is a lot of trade that goes there and is concentrated in a crucial commodity that

is oil and gas.

And the other thing with the straight of hormones, which is different than the Swiss

canals, not just the size, is it's not alternative.

So most of the oil that's going from Saudi Arabia, from Iraq, from the UAE, goes through

hormones, all the energy that goes from Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar goes through hormones.

It's a big shock, 20% of global oil supplies.

Right.

I can't think of a larger oil shock in recent history.

If this is not the largest, then it's one of the largest for sure.

Zayah, there's just absolutely brilliant.

And I looked up the numbers here.

That's what I do with AI, and really the only equivalent to hormones is a straights

of melaca down by Malaysia and Singapore and north of Indonesia.

I mean, other than melaca and that conduit going up the Pacific Rim to Japan, there's

no other scale in size.

I think we're only beginning to really understand the factor, the magnitude scale of hormones,

the Persian, the Arabian Gulf.

As well with this Michael Nirenberg of rhythm, and of course this would have been the number

one topic of the week except a war, and that is private credit and the challenges that

are out there.

He's with rhythm.

Let's listen.

Listen, there's going to be pockets of private credit that are going to, you know, right

now obviously in the news, private credit is negative.

I don't think all private credit is negative to be totally honest.

I think there's been some, obviously there's been some headlines with some of the other

larger asset managers that have put up gates.

And I think a lot of that has to do with what we've seen the distribution of private credit

into retail.

And when you take products that may not be 100% suited for retail, and retail wants their

money out because the equity markets have turned over and folks are looking for liquidity,

it creates a little bit of what we'll call a say so called run on the bank.

Munchen here in Berger with rhythm today in private credit, special thanks as well to

Hugh van Steenis of Oliver Wyman, Oliver Wyman, vice chair, Oliver Wyman, who was just

brilliant there on getting through the weekend in private credit, both of them fairly optimistic

that it would be contained around the retailization of private credit in that a large part

of the industry would continue to move forward on podcasts, run Apple, run Spotify and

YouTube podcasts.

And single best idea.

When the rest of the markets slow down, the futures market keeps moving.

Did you know that CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with

great liquidity?

In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessons after 4 p.m. until the next morning.

But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night.

Learn more at CME Group dot com slash equity futures.

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So there's a lot of noise about AI, but times too tight for more promises.

So let's talk about results.

At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need.

Now, a global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving

94% of common questions.

Not noise.

Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off.

Deep in the work that moves the business.

Let's create smart to business.

IBM.

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