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A U.S. Special Forces soldier who helped to plan the January capture of Venezuelan President
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Nicolas Maduro has been indicted for allegedly using classified information about the raid
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to place bets in the prediction market.
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The soldier who was stationed at Fort Bragg and North Carolina won more than $400,000 on
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the platform Polly Market by placing a series of bets about Maduro's removal.
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The indictment is raising new concerns about insider trading and the need for regulation.
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Joining us to discuss this is our White House correspondent Liz Landers and David Hill,
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who's a journalist who writes about gambling for Rolling Stone and on his American gambler
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sub-stack. Welcome to you both. And David, I'll start with you because you follow these markets
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so closely. Just briefly set the stage for us. What kind of concerns does this indictment raise?
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Well, it raises a lot of concerns. It also answers a lot of concerns. There's been quite a bit of
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there's been quite a bit of concern about prediction markets and the markets that they offer on
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geopolitical events, but also an insider trading that might be happening those markets for a number
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of months as we've seen prediction markets grow in the United States. And so a prosecution like this
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is very important, I think, for the prediction markets to try to return to some trust and
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sense of integrity about the markets that they offer. And Liz, you had a chance to ask President
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Trump about this indictment specifically yesterday. What did he say? This news was breaking as we
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were going back into the Oval Office around 6 p.m. last night. And I asked the president about this
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case kind of read some of the details to him. He actually seemingly not heard about it yet. So
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he was asking me questions. And then I asked him a follow-up question about these bigger beds that
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are also being placed about Iran. Here's that exchange. Can you place as well on the Iran conflict
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too? And there have been some trackings where people suspect that there's insider trading happening
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on these prediction markets around the world. Are you concerned about that? The whole world,
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unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. And you look at what's going on all over the world
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in Europe and every place they're doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of that.
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I like it conceptually. But it is what it is. No, I think that I'm not happy with any of that.
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One of those beds that has drawn quite a bit of scrutiny is a large bet again on polymarket
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back in March on the death of the Ayatollah. This person made about a half a million dollars
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on anonymous better on polymarket. Meanwhile, David, we know there's been guidelines for sports
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gambling websites in place for years. That is not true when it comes to betting on geopolitical
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events. You know, Congress is just starting to introduce some related bills. But when it comes to
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regulation or guidelines, what do you think is needed here? Well, what polymarket and calcium
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want us to believe is that they are offering futures contracts and should be regulated by the
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CFTC. And there are regulations that exist within the CFTC about insider trading in commodities
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and futures. And so, ostensibly, any bet that you make on calcium polymarket should be
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under those same regulations, which is part of what I think we're trying to test here with the
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arrest of Mr. Van Dyke and the investigation about whether or not he committed insider trading when
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he made the bet about the Maduro, the Maduro operation. As we know that the White House has
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reportedly actually issued a warning to its own staff last month against using insider information
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to bet on the Iran War in the prediction markets. Tell us about that. Pretty unusual. The White
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House personnel office sent around an email to White House staffers last month according to
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the Wall Street Journal and said that they cannot bet on the Iran War in these prediction markets.
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White House said in a press statement that federal employees are subject to ethics guidelines that
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prohibit the use of non-public info for financial benefit. The Trump family, though, does have
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connections to these prediction markets. The president's son, Don Jr., is an advisor to both
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calcium and polymarket. Some critics of the presidents have accused him of using his power as the
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president to manipulate the markets when he talks to reporters on the phone or issues statements
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on truth social. The Trump administration, though, is coming down hard in this indictment that
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came out yesterday. The Acting Attorney General Todd Blanch said, quote, widespread access to
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prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security
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information fully apply. The U.S. Attorney that brought these charges against Van Dyke yesterday
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said that he engaged in, quote, clear insider trading, Amna.
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David, pull this back a little bit for us on terms of the lens through which we're looking at
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this. Now, even if it is legal, right, is there something immoral or ethically questionable here
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about betting on geopolitical events when lives are potentially at stake? Certainly, the question
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of morality is sort of central to all of this, but I do think it's important to understand that
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these types of bets are made in the major financial markets every single day.
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I mean, just one of the big controversies that I think the Trump administration is sort of
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reacting to isn't just the best that are made on polymarket or on CalShi, but that in the minutes
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before he announced the Iran ceasefire, there were close to a billion dollars worth of oil futures
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that were traded in the commodities markets. And so there's always the sort of looming question
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about insider information that could be utilized on bets in the markets that are impacted by world
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and global events. All right, that is David Hale from Rolling Stone and our own Liz Landers,
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covering this issue for us. Thank you to you both.