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He's looking around for allies and I think he thought he was going to find one in Kierstahmer and he did not and that, of course, is going to permanently, I think, color his relationship with the PM.
The Basin said, none of this will overshadow my relationship with Britain, but it's Stahmer that I've got a problem with.
When you see Islamist gaining more power, gaining more population size in terms of their percentage through mass migration in countries like the UK, this is clearly and could potentially be something
that causes the United States to rethink those relationships.
He's playing with fire, isn't he?
Yes, very much so.
There's a level of skepticism for the United States embarking in any Middle Eastern conflict again because of the shadow of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Now, my interview with President Trump has caused quite a stir both in Britain and today in the Oval Office,
where the President doubled down on his astonishing attacks on the Kierstahmer.
It's safe to say the leader of the free world is pretty pissed with Britain.
Last week, Sir Kierstahmer, the lefty labour lawyer that leads Britain, blocked American BT bombers from refueling in the crucial Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia,
that military base has been so contentious this year as Britain looks at how they can secure its future,
potentially giving it away only to rent it back from Mauritius.
The Chagall Steel has been running along for months now, but it's pretty clear from Donald Trump's words to me last night,
and in the Oval Office today that he considers the deal dead.
He told me he calls it Woke Island.
He has no idea where Britain's giving it away.
He just says ignore a non-binding international ruling, perhaps means that one day Mauritius could claim ownership for the island.
No fire in our person to speak to.
Manu knows Donald Trump very well.
Manu knows Naval Intelligence very well.
Manu knows the MAGA movement very well.
Jack Prasovic, welcome back to Harry Colt saves the West.
Thanks for joining us today.
A pretty remarkable moment.
You know better than most people, the depth of the special relationship in terms of military might,
naval might, satellites, security, cyber, spying.
It's bigger than two politicians,
but I can't remember a time when it's being quite this rough.
And is Donald Trump just annoyed about Diego Garcia?
Or is there something slightly wider in the relationship between Britain and America, do you think?
Well, I think that remains to be seen clearly.
We know President Trump, and I was there with him at the board of peace just a couple of weeks ago.
I really just last week, I should say, when he spoke about Diego Garcia.
He talked about the importance of this.
He put a truth social post up about it just after then talking about the importance
of the U.K. maintaining that, allowing the United States to continue their basing rights there,
and in terms of aircraft to provide those options for these critical refueling flights,
as it is almost directly south of the Persian Gulf, and just allows for more optionality for
long-range bombers. As many of the United States' holdings and territories and other territories
in the Pacific do the way that Puerto Rico kind of serves the similar purpose in the Caribbean,
at least not so much for Arab or for naval vessels and naval capabilities there for the United
States in the Caribbean. And so this is something that has long standing been a key element of U.S.
and British partnership there in the Indian. And for this refusal, I believe that President
Trump very clearly took it personally, and I think that's why he responded the way that he did.
Yeah, I mean, we've seen President Trump live. He's gone off at one at the Canadians.
He's gone off at one at the Mexicans. He's gone off at one at NATO. And at the end of the day,
he sort of always comes back to the fold, but he's been quite definitive in this one.
I mean, this is a man that kind of ate quite a lot of flack, I suppose.
He, you know, Keir Starmer is not Donald Trump. They couldn't be more opposite.
They had this sort of unusual bromance. It's, you know, in Mr. International Law, Mr.
do everything by the book. He's nicknamed Britain as Mr. Rules.
And then you have a president on the other side who says that the only guardrails that he actually
has are his own morality, regardless of constitutions or legal or international legal obligations there.
But they did sort of forge a sort of 18 months slightly uneasy bromance, you might think.
But is there, do you think there's anything, you know, how do you come back from the president
basically giving you the most insulting put down you possibly can of you're basically saying,
I love Winston Churchill so much. I've got a great big bust of him in the Oval Office.
And you sir, I know Winston Churchill. I mean, that's up there with, you know, I knew,
I knew, I knew John Kennedy. John Kennedy was a friend of mine. I served John Kennedy.
You are no John Kennedy. I mean, it's, it's one of those, it's one of those sound bites.
It's going to really hang around Starmer's neck probably for the rest of his political career.
Well, I think that's exactly right. And look, we know the president Trump has this affinity for
the UK because of his Scottish ancestry, because of his mother being born there, because,
of course, of his property up in Turnberry, because of his relationship with the late Queen,
someone who he held in the highest of esteem. And in fact, he also talked very favorably about
King Charles. And he said that he was hoping to see the king very soon here. So I think that,
again, he thinks that it really feels that he's shown the utmost of respect to the UK,
to the British system, to the relationship, and doesn't feel like that's been reciprocated at
a time. By the way, when, of course, he's facing headwinds from the Democrats, he's facing headwinds
from the United States Senate, even Republicans there to pass his, his agenda and put it into
legislation, different acts like the SAVAC that he's pushing for allowing, or I should say,
blocking illegal aliens to vote. So this comes at a time where the president, of course,
has gone in for quite a big gamble, obviously, going to war is never an easy task, as Churchill
himself, of course, famously found out in certain operations of World War I. And this is a time
where he's looking around for allies. And I think he thought he was going to find one in
Kierstormer, and he did not. And that, of course, is going to permanently, I think, color his
relationship with the PM. But that being said, President Trump also has a remarkable
capability for forgiveness and for redemption. We've seen him do this time and time again
to people that he's been crosswise with, to people that he's called out in the media,
depending on how they respond. If they respond and, of course, correct, if the PM does that,
there is a possibility that President Trump could say all is forgiven. We've seen him do this time
and time again. So I wouldn't surprise me if that happens as well. Well, yeah, the King is
Julian Washington, D.C. in New York at the end of the end of next month. So that's certainly going
to be a lily moment. He actually was actually pains to say to me last night that actually
why he still loves the UK. He still loves, as you said, that relationship he has with Britain,
he loves King Charles. And he said, I'm looking forward to seeing this. He basically said,
none of this will overshadow my relationship with Britain, but it's Stormer that I've got a problem
with. The other thing we discussed was, and we see it, I think, a lot here in the United States as
a big crossover is the idea of left-leaning politicians and now realizing that in light of
what's happened in the Middle East in the last couple of years, they are essentially bleeding
out voters to the hard left and a hard left combination of traditional left wingers and Muslim
block voting and Islamist elements, sectarian elements within infiltrating mainstream politics.
And I suspect he'd probably take quite a dim view of that shaping foreign policy. And
Kirstama's open to the exaggeration is not just me making it. It's the leader of the opposition
in the United Kingdom. It's multiple commentators in the UK who are saying, look,
there's clearly party politics involved in this. I mean, the special relationship is surely
meant to be more than helping the party that's in power and keep its grip on power by essentially
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Well, and in fact, JD Vance as well, when he spoke in Munich last year at the Munich Security
Conference, this is something that he pointed out as well that when you see Islamist gaining more
power, gaining more population size in terms of their percentage through mass migration in countries
like the UK. He also called out France and Germany and others and particularly in Western Europe
that he said this is clearly and could potentially be something that causes the United States
to rethink those relationships. When we talk about the special relationship, we're not just talking,
of course, as you say about these formalities. We're talking about military basing rights. We're
talking about the five I's intelligence sharing treaty, which I certainly used every single day
when I was in the intelligence community and have a very clear understanding of how much
intelligence the US shares with the UK and the other five I's partners and vice versa as well.
And so that is something that has only traditionally been shared with countries that are in the
Anglo sphere. So this is not something that's shared with other NATO members. It's not something
that's shared with other partners, not like Israel, for example, that we embark in military
operations with five I's is always the highest level of intelligence sharing. So for JD Vance to
call that into question that seriously calls into question whether or not the US is going to allow
direct access to the array of spy satellites, the communications, infrastructure, the NSA databases,
all of these things that the US and the UK traditionally have shared in terms of national security
that he is really looking at that saying, look, there's a serious issue here that if these,
I don't even know how to put it really, these new demographics taking over in various parts of
the country having influence in various parts of these countries could call into question whether
or not those security agreements continue. So he's playing with fire, isn't he? Any really? Yes,
very much so. I mean, I'm fair to say it's just the the sort of Middle Eastern linked communities
we put it. I mean, imagine, imagine, imagine if you put out right now that the location of US
submarines or the strike packages for targets that were coming up in Iran before it took place,
let the Ayatollah know where, you know, when the strike was coming this sort of thing or given,
given the locations of US special forces. Again, these are the types of material I'm generally
speaking, right? I'm not, I'm not revealing anything, but in generally speaking, these are the types of
things you've revealed too much. That's the CIA. That's actually the New York Times, believe it or not.
That, you know, that the United States would would currently, you know, perhaps be sharing and
not want to for after that. It'd be unfair to say it's just the changing demographics that have
some skepticism towards this operation, this war, I think we call it, in Iran. The long shadow of
Afghanistan and Iraq linger over Britain just as they do across America. There is sort of skepticism
about the end game of this of this operation in the UK, just as I think there is growing skepticism
here. I mean, the initial ra ra of the Ayatollah's wax on the first day, I mean, it's a bit like
Maduro. No one's going to get sick of seeing a bad evil tyrant in chains and no one's going to
weep for the butcher of Tehran. But what's the mood like in, you know, you have your finger on
the pulse of the movement that elected Donald Trump. It feels very divided, especially online,
but it does feel slightly divided around the wider America as well. In the fact that I'll be really
going to do this again. Is this going to be another forever war? It starts with bombs and then it
sputes. There's only been six American casualties. The escalation around the wider Gulf. I don't
think anyone really expected. How's the mood in Trump says we're winning, this is great, we're
dominant. But JD Vance certainly has been coy on it. What's the temperature? Well, I'd say the
temperature is, of course, as you say, there's a level of skepticism for the United States in
barking in any Middle Eastern conflict again because of the shadow of Iraq and Afghanistan. This
is something absolutely colors all of our actions over there. And at the same time for folks who are
veterans like myself, who served in these time frames that, you know, we understand that you'd
start small and then it becomes bigger and then eventually a configuration that becomes very,
it's easy to get in hard to get out. And so this is something that worries a lot of people.
This is this possibility of mission creep. But at the same time, I would also offer that President
Trump has won himself credibility, not just in his second term, but really in just the last 12
months since Operation Midnight Hammer, which was an in and out exercise, since the Maduro raid,
which you bring up, was also an in and out one night exercise was seen as largely successful.
And he he bandied that at the state of the Union to raucous applause, people cheering when
that was brought up. So again, that is seen as a success in terms of his foreign policy. And,
you know, something I've said in a few other spots as well is that at the end of the day, Donald
Trump is not George W. Bush. JD Vance is not Dick Cheney. They are not part of that group that
led those wars. It led to the beginning of those wars. There's certainly not Barack Obama either
who was sending the the pallets of cash for American hostages when my Navy shipmates were picked up
there at in Keshe, Mile and those small boats that were picked up in 2016. So it's just it is
a new day. It certainly is. And I believe there is a level of credibility that the president had
and trust that the president has. But at the same time, there are still a lot of people. And I would
say there's a generational divide. And Charlie Kirk, my late friend talked about this quite a bit
about this generational divide when it comes to action and not specifically military action
in the Middle East, where Gen Z college voters, which Charlie understood very well because he spoke
to them four hours a day, a clip when he would go to these campus, these ubiquitous campus stops,
that they don't want to see action in the Middle East. They want to see action when it comes to
the clients and friends of Jeffrey Epstein. They want to see mass deportations and they want to see
economic relief specifically coming into a midterm election year like the United States
is in this year. That's what they want. So and when I go and I talk to my audience,
you know, we ask people to sort of share in their age. I've been asking that on this and we see
that split as well. It's not always 100 percent. But typically the age, it's around 45, 50, where people
are either if you're over that number, you're very much in support of these operations. If you're
under that number, this gamut ranges from skeptical to being totally against. And so that's something
that I think the president, the White House, the administration clearly understand very well
going into this. And we also know that President Trump has come out and said he thinks that this
is necessary. And so he's banking on that credibility that he's built up with the past operations
to see this one through. Spank signal was out of the, probably shouldn't you smoke signals,
given what's down down to run and so right now. But the the mood music outside of out of the
Pentagon feels like this is a sort of four week campaign. I think the sort of goals have already
been achieved before quicker than they expected to be. This isn't going to be forever war.
But presumably this is shone and done up and and the deck is cleared by, you know, before the midterms
are even on the, you know, even on the cusp of the campaigning really beginning proper. How long would
you, how long would you be comfortable seeing this action take place? Well, look, we reported that
as well over human events that four weeks was about the time frame that the administration was
looking at the White House, probably where I read it could be, could be. And, you know, one of
the things though that the president has said and one of the signals that we're also getting out
of the administration is that they are looking at the Venezuela model that this would think about
what we're not hearing, right? We're not hearing these stories of nation building. We're not hearing
democracy spreading capacity building. Everyone's a liberal democracy now. Let's drop a key
Jeffersonian and liberal democracy is going to flourish in the streets of town. We're just
not hearing that. And obviously, President Trump and JD Vance have said, look, we would obviously
support that if it happened. But that's a question that they're willing to leave with the Iranian
people themselves and JD Vance coming out last night. And the word that he used on Fox News,
I thought it was interesting. He said, incidental. It is incidental to this operation who the new
leadership of Iran becomes. And I think that's very telling that the vice president using his
first public address since the start of this operation to use the word incidental rather than
say we're looking for regime change, we're looking for partners, we're looking for, you know,
backing a militia, this sort of thing. He said incidental. And so that to me says that they're
looking at that Venezuela model. You take out whoever the current senior leader is and then whichever
group rises to the top, whether that be from the IRGC, whether it be, I believe, largely,
the civilian leadership of Iran seems to still be intact, the foreign minister, the civilian
president, and also the son of the Ayatollah. We, you know, again, fog of war, but with all the
caveats we believe he's still alive. So the son of Hamini is still alive. And so you could see a
group coalition come together that wants to spark a more pragmatic relationship with the United
States rather than an aggressive take. As far as I can see, it's no bomb, no efforts at a bomb,
stop the bomb and stop with the death to America crap. And, you know, we'll leave your oil
production alone and, you know, be more amiable to the west and you won't get your head blown off.
Is that fair? Yeah, I mean, that really seems to be what they're looking for. And again,
the Venezuela model proves that. Obviously, there was a recalibration when it came to the oil
sales there. They're now sending oil supplies to the United States, the US allies. But by and
large, the machinery of government has still been left in place. And even Steven Miller had this
incredible moment on CNN, where Jake Tapper was asking him, are you going to push for democratic
elections? And Steven said, we're going to work with the government in place. We're not interested
in going down that road. Just take out the ultra baddies and hold your nose and what were places in
President Trump has said before. And in times where I've spoken with them that, you know,
specifically about the Middle East, that, you know, you need, you need tough people in that region.
And so this is something where you look at his policy in Syria, where Al Jolani, a guy who has a
rough background, I believe is the president called it himself being a prior member of working
with Al Qaeda in Iraq. Supposedly, a reform terrorist is now the leader, but he has the backing of
the US and many of our partners. And the president's saying, look, we need people who are rough to take
care of a rough area. I think no one's ever attended the Emirates, the Saudis, the Ammanis, the
Baranis, particularly nice guys. The Jordanians put a nice spin on it. At the end of the day, you know,
they've held their grip on power for a reason without the flag waving democracy and the other
nations have tried. Jack, the other split I can pick up, obviously it's pretty hard to miss, is
this growing movement within the right, the alt-right you might call it, the, you know, the
work right of this kind of obsession, growing obsession with Israel and, you know, Netanyah who's
calling the shots, you know, there's a sort of slight confusion over Rubio's comments in the
Congress the other day where he seemed to him suggest that Israel were going to strike first,
so the Americas had to do it anyway. I think it was a bit more nuanced than that if you actually
look at the whole transcript, but obviously those comments were lept on by the kind of, you know,
I'd say you're probably still a member of Team Sensible, right? The same crazies have
absolutely run with, run with that in terms of, in terms of whipping up sort of, and resistance to
this, to this, to this action. You've got Nick Fuentes saying, you know, you still, you still think
it would have been worse with Kamala, you know, advanced as dead, Rubio's dead, Trump is dead,
we've got to, you know, we've got to take back the, we've got to take back the movement and
strip Israel out of it. This is given the sort of that very vocal, very online sect of the movement,
quite a lot of ammunition, isn't it? Well, I think it certainly has, and there's no question
about that, and certainly, by the way, I'm not one of these people who says that, you know, it's
impossible to have a discussion about whether America's interests and Israel's interests are
aligned on any topic of foreign policy. I think that's perfectly fair, and in fact, I think it's
probably something that should be discussed more when it comes to questions of whether or not we're
going to war, whether American, by, we've already had six Americans killed in this, so, you know,
this is not bloodless, this has come at a cost, and certainly, it deserves to be understood. Now,
that being said, wouldn't want anything to color that bias, and I do think there are times where
the United States and Israel's interests do align. President Trump has said they align
when it comes to Iran, and it comes to these ballistic missiles when it comes, obviously,
to the nuclear facility, and the nuclear-raining enrichment as President, or excuse me,
Vice President, advanced, talked about last night. But I would caution, though, that one piece of
this that I could see where it getting away is this mission creep, because when you look at it
from President Trump, he's looking at this from a grand strategy standpoint. He's thinking about
China. He's thinking about Russia. He's thinking about the pressure that it puts on the BRICS
alliance, this, this not alliance, sort of geopolitical third world, third party movement,
and so the multi-polarity world, as they call it. And so he's looking at putting them in check,
that's why he goes to Venezuela first, then he goes to Iran, understanding the closure of the
Strait of Hormuz, and the effect that would have on the world, oil markets, that is more of an
effect on China and more of an effect on Europe than it does the United States. And of course,
that means, though, that the United States, it'd be a writ large, still would favor a stable Iran,
be that a free Iran or a Iran with a more pro-Western government in place, the Shah,
someone who had the U.S. had backed before, certainly was not democratically elected. And Israel,
on the other hand, would probably prefer seeing an Iran that's fighting itself, seeing a
Iran that's more at a civil war, seeing more instability, various opposition groups fighting each
other. They would rather see that. So that might be an area, perhaps, where we see this mission
diverge in terms of the United States wanting to end this quickly, whereas Israel could probably
want for their interests to drag this on much further, so that their regional threat is then
diminished in the long term. Well, you've got figures like Megan Kelly that. I mean,
it's been on an incredible journey from sort of semi-moderate Fox News presenter through to,
you know, Pogcasta, but she's saying, you know, six lives would land down for Israel.
It's quite a remarkable place to, you know, the traditional sort of relationship between the
American right and Israel is pretty bruised right now, isn't it? Right now, new
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Gambling problem called 1-800-Gambling. Well, I think it has been bruised and I think that the
Warren Gaza has played a huge role in terms of that. I think that the continued warfare has
played a huge role in that. And look, there are a lot of people that came on board with President
Trump and JD Vance in 2024 who are hoping for an end to not just new wars but all military action
in the Middle East. That didn't work out. The world is the way the world is. President Trump
taking a leadership the way that he is. And look, they're using Israel as this, you know,
this using Israel as this casual to point to it saying, look, Gaza, look what they did in Gaza.
Now they just want more war here. But they're sort of overlooking the fact that President Trump
actually led to the ceasefire in Gaza and even slapped down Israel when they were working or,
you know, making moves to break that peace fire. And he slapped down BB Netanyahu very quickly
when he did so. So I think the president is his own man. I think he's in the driver's
seat when it comes to this. Foreign alliances absolutely open for debate. There's no question
about that. I'm not the kind of person that's going to shut that down. But I would say just
make sure you're telling the whole story. Yeah, I think the exact quote from Donald Trump was
they didn't know what the fuck they're doing. Wasn't it? As he walked across the south
corner. Yes, he was like, it was like 9 a.m. on a Saturday morning and it was just like,
I was watching TV slightly hung over and I was like, what the hell is it going on?
When you see the leader of the free world, basically, yeah, as you say, knock it down very quickly.
That division does seem to sort of play out a little bit within the administration,
though, as well. Rubio obviously is much more forthright on his support of Israel. Obviously,
he's in a state department facing, you know, foreign facing role and they are a crucial
regional ally, not least now. But JD Vance is keeping his power quite dry on this one. I think,
obviously, he was silent for a few days after the strikes happened. He appeared on Fox last
night. He didn't not, he didn't completely deny stories that were circulating that he had been
very anti the strike on Iran, but then come round to it and if you could do it, do it quickly,
which is kind of, I think, quite a neat way of sort of side-stepping the issue. We're sort of,
we're heading into a campaign now, really, aren't we? Where Israel and geopolitics can be
confronted center of the future of the Republican Party that's looking to me like it's, you know,
whereas I'd say six, seven months ago it was going to be JD's for the taking. Rubio is looking
like he could be a contender and it's going to be a high stakes, you know, high stakes high-minded
primary if those two go head to head, isn't it? Well, look, I think it's no one's, no one's
surprise. It's too no one's surprised that when you have a team full of alpha males when you've
got all the guys together and, you know, they're all knowing that President Trump is at least
constitutionally term limited. We'll see whether or not he takes another bite at that apple as
he likes to tell us. But no, it's very clear. Look, the jockeying for 2028 and the primary has
already begun. It's clearly in full swing and that is what's adding, I think, to the tension of
all of these statements. Marco Rubio comes out and suddenly, I think these, you know, prediction
markets have already begun, you know, sort of scanning for, you know, Rubio's chances going
up or down, JD's chances going up or down. And so they're already clearly looking at it. Of course,
the vice president has seen all of this. He's an avid reader of Twitter as we all know, which
avid reader of X. And so I think that all of that colors a lot of these decisions and a lot of
these moves as they are made. But I would also caution that if this thing does turn out to be
successful, then it could be to their, both of their benefit, really, for kidding out in front of
it early on and saying that, look, we did this. It was successful. We have a new relationship with
whoever is able to come to power in Iran. I'm not saying that's going to happen. I am just saying
that if you compare it to Venezuela where there was a net good outcome, that that is something
that will be quite popular back home. Yeah, success has, has many fathers, I suppose, if it's
a show in six years. They'll be running. In the military, we used to say that there are only
operational successes and intelligence failures. So whenever the intel is right, we never get credit.
What is an operational success look like to you? So say where are we now? We're in early March.
So let's fast forward to the end of the summer, August as the midterms loom. What does Iran look
like then? Well, look, I mean, you would hope that there's stability in Iran by then. You'd
hope that in the middle of the summer driving season in the U.S. that gas is not going up to those
kind of shocks that we saw back in 2008. The last time there was this level of instability in
the Middle East, you would hope that President Trump is working to fight inflation and fight a lot
of the regional inflation that we have in the U.S. There's different parts of the U.S. that have
higher inflation than others and are working to get those wages up. And quite frankly, hoping that by
August, we're not talking about the Middle East, and we're not talking about the straight-of-horn
moves and trying to measure how many nautical miles across it is, and whether or not a cruise missile
can achieve a- Could I be monitoring the situation? Across the, yeah, no more monitoring of the
situation, especially for U.M. myself and our benefit. Though, of course, my-I have been able to
give my kids a little bit of a lesson in naval power projection, because they keep asking,
Daddy, how is the United States can do this? Well, son, let me tell you something about what your
dad used to do in the Navy. And so, you know, politically speaking, I would say it is to the benefit
of the administration, to the benefit of the Republicans, to take the win, get out swiftly,
get out quickly, find that stability, and then refocus big on domestic policy, focus on economic
policy, so that, look, we're in February. February is a long, or excuse me, March, we just begun March,
March is a long time away from the midterms, a long time away from November, where this thing could
honestly be completely forgotten when people go to the votes. I wonder, I wonder, as you say,
big risk, big strategy, bold, big bold play for a-for a president who is in a legacy to finding
here, lose the house, and I think it gets very, very tricky, very quickly for the administration.
Jack Posabick, always a-a pleasure, fascinating as ever, and always, always welcome here
for more monitoring the situation. In fact, we could do an entire spin-off show. Jack and Harry
monitor the situation. I'm up for it, I'll bring the coffee you bring the tea. All right,
did take care. Thanks for having me. Good to see you.
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Time one spent sorting and waiting, folding and queuing, now spent challenging and
innovating and pushing your way to greatness. So pick up the Irish flute or those calligraphy
pens, or that daunting beef Wellington recipe card, and leave the laundry to us. Rinse, it's time to be
great.
Harry Cole Saves The West
