Stocks Aren't as Expensive as You Think | WAYT?

0:00Here we are. There they are. How are you boys doing? Let's go. Fantastic, excited. All right. It is Tuesday, September 8th. We are live at 5 as always. My name is Michael Batnik and I am joined by Sean Russo. I am going to introduce you to the audience. What's up guys? And of course, Chart can Matt who needs no reintroduction. Chart, say hello. Hello everyone. Great to see you guys. Why are they here? Well, Josh is out today with a back. If there was an injury report, get into the NFL swing of the things. Josh has a back. Not going to reveal more than that. I myself dealt with back issues. Me too. Not fun. Oh yeah? Yeah. During your playing days? All the time. Last month.

1:00Sean flex a little bit. What did you do for what? What's your sport baller? I was a sport baller. I played football in North Dakota. The Hawks. You got your football guys here. Michael got deep for me. We'll get to you. Sean, guard or tackle? A little bit of both, but tackle mostly. All right. D. What was that D1? Yeah, D1 SCS though. Yeah. Chart, where did you play? Union College, Division 3, Liberty League. Still? Hell yeah. Still not nothing. All right. So Josh, I hope you're feeling better. Get well soon. Here's what we're going to get into tonight. We're going to talk about, and we've got charts out the S. You would not believe how these boys cook tonight. We're going to get into the great re-rating and why some stocks might not be as expensive as people think. We're going to do a little bit of Peter Lynch's old adage invest in what you know why it's harder than you think. It works sometimes sort of. We're going to talk about one. What I think is a sort of missing ingredient from this alleged stock market bubble, and then we'll get into apples 2000 phone.

2:10We'll do a mystery chart and then we'll get out here. But first we've got a sponsor tonight. Gentlemen, what do we got? This podcast is brought to you by DBMF, the world's largest managed futures ETF. Feel like the world's changing fast. Imagine a strategy built to move when everyone else is standing still. Going long or short across global markets as the trends shift. DBMF is made to move differently. A single low-cost ETF offering genuine diversification even when stocks and bonds move together. Discover why DBMF's liquid uncorrelated managed futures strategy could be what your old allocation is missing at www.dbmf.com slash wawyt. DBMF made to move differently. The IMGP DBI managed futures strategy ETFs investment objectives, risk, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The statutory and summary perspectives contain this and other important information about the investment company it may be obtained by visiting www.imgp.com.

3:14DBMF is the world's largest managed futures ETF as of July 31, 2021-26 with 4.16 billion AUF. Listen, I feel like I make it look easy. You guys are lumbering through that. You're coming off a wedding so you have an excuse. I'm sorry. Let's get into it with Matt. This is you. We're talking about a great re-rating. We're talking about the great re-rating. The beginning of the year I talked about the great broadening and that was happening in the market. We had a lot of stocks that were going up that weren't necessarily the MAG-7. Now we have a new phenomenon which is what I'm calling the great re-rating. The first chart that I brought today, Duncan, can we throw this up? We're looking at the number of S&P 500 stocks with a 4P greater than 40. These are the stocks that are the most expensive in the market. As this line goes down, it means there's less stocks that are trading above a 4x4P. Look at it today. We have 27 stocks in the S&P 500. Only 27 trading with a 4P greater than 40.

4:24That's like marking past bear market lows and we're within 2% of all time highs. That's really incredible. I was about to ask you a sort of a got your question, not really. Try it off please for a second and we'll come back to it. I was going to say I wonder if this looked a lot different if you included stocks that were say, move the 4P even 40 down to 30. But it doesn't matter. That's not what you're trying to say. What you're saying I think is holy shit. We only have 27 stocks in the S&P 500 with a 4P eA 40. We were at these levels, just 27 stocks, at the bear market low in 2022 and at the COVID low in 2020. Where is the enthusiasm? We're basically at all time highs and every stock is getting cheaper. 100%. How can you talk about being in a bubble when you have the number of stocks with a 4P greater than 40 back to the levels that we saw in March 2020 when the market went down 30% in October 2022 when we had that grueling bear market.

5:28It just doesn't make sense to me. What a killer of a chart. This might be if you were to go in front of the judge, the bubble judge and you had one piece of evidence. Is this exhibit a pun intended? That's exhibit a right there. I like that one. But I looked at it also, Michael. Nice little segue there on a sector by sector basis. John, if we could do this next chart as well. I made this evaluation heat map. What you're seeing is within each sector, the percent of stocks within various 4P buckets. For example, look at utilities. 81% of utility stocks have a 4P between 10 and 20. That's how the chart is constructed. I first want you to focus on tech. John, can we flip to the next one? Focus there. Look at tech. 38% of constituents within tech have a 4P between 10 and 20. The next most common band is between 20 and 30 times forward. That's not crazy expensive for the growth we're seeing within tech.

6:28John, one more flip. Okay. Now look at the average. So on average across all sectors, 52% of stocks are falling within within the 10 to 20 bucket and 4P. That's not crazy expensive. What do you guys thoughts? Go on, John. Maybe this is silly question to start out with. Is there just no companies with less than 10X earnings? Oh, they're in there, but like for example, you know, they throw the chart back on. These are probably real pieces of shabby. Look at utilities. 10% of those are trading below 10. There are some. I was looking, I was going through the data. There's some like 3, 4, 5, 6, there. Like Michael said, they're kind of like pieces of shit companies, but they're very rare. Go back to the tech one, please. So what this is shown is that two thirds of all stocks in technology, which is the epicenter of the stock market, Mania, air quotes. Two thirds of that of those stocks are trading below 30 times forward. And only 20 only one out of four are trading above 30 times earnings.

7:37All right, pretty reasonable. Good stuff. What else we got? Oh, all right. I counterpoint. Sean, did you come with this chart? Yeah. So I think we see a lot of counterpoints about complaining about the price of earnings and forward earnings. And they throw up the price of sales. So John, if you want to throw up price of sales, sales. This is the trailing price of sales. And it's at all time highs. And this is the counter that a lot of people are saying. But in my mind, this is an inept argument. The counter to the counter to the counter counter to the counter that I put in. If a company turns more of each sales dollar into profit, its price sales goes up, even if you're paying the exact same multiple. So for example, a business earning $2 on $10 of sales at 15 times earnings trades at 3x sales. Hold on, go slower. I don't know we're doing math here. A business. So if you have a company that has $10 in sales and their earnings are $2 and they trade at 15 times earnings, that's 3x sales.

8:39With you. If that $2 of profit turns to $4 on the same $10 of revenue, still with the same multiple, the sales multiple doubles, but the earnings multiple says the same, which is what's been happening in this market. There you have it. All right, this next chart that we're looking at from Meb Favour via Deutsche Bank. What are we looking at here? This is the, what is this? Yeah, so all right. So they looked back since, wow, this is since 1935 and they plotted the S&P 500 quarterly earnings and they did it in a log scale. And so essentially what's what's shown here is this long term channel that you're seeing and we're starting to break above it. So this is from Deutsche Bank. US earnings are breaking out of a 90 year channel on the upside, which is incredible when you consider the high growth periods of the past. The debate will rage on as to whether this is a sustainable new plateau or an artificial period of AI related elevated earnings. But if you squint at the chart, you can see the actual earnings are breaking out of the channel.

9:43It's not the projections. And my question to you guys is, what do you guys think? Like, are we going to look back in 20 years and say, AI marked the beginning of a new paradigm where earnings grow 11% annually for seven. I'm making it up. Like, is it, is that too cute? Or what do you guys think? I think it's a weird way to show earnings. That's what I think. There's a sort of a bizarre chart. All right, let me answer your question. Sean, you answered the question. What do you think? I don't think it has to be like a whole new paradigm forever. I think it certainly is a theme that we're going to experience for the next whatever. Like if we're going to put an ending to it, we did this last time. Like, I would think we're in the first half of the innings, but I don't think it's going to continue on forever. Well, you boys know I'm a gaps get filled guys. So I think this is going to come back into the channel. One of the things that's remarkable about the current moment in time is the earnings growth. Now, this is the debate that it's getting pretty tiresome if I'm being frank. But the earnings growth is off the charts. And the kind of point would be, yes, but that unsustainable capex build out.

10:58This is not going to continue, which is why the market is not rewarding these stocks. This is why the PE is shrinking because these earnings are not sustainable. I think that is probably consensus. That is what that is what the market is telling you. The market moldable is 19X right now, excuse me, which is below the five year median multiple. It's right at the average median over the last 10 years. So we're pricing in those fears of circular spending or non stable earnings. Like that's priced in. That's what we're creating in 19X. We should have came with a peg ratio, long term peg ratio. Can we do that chart? Yeah, we can make that. Yeah, we'll make it. Okay, so, so who made this chart about this is growth. This is my earnings growth chart walk us through it. So this is from Jim Bianca at Bianca research. We're looking at quarterly year over year earnings growth. I'm sorry, it's Bianco. He is not a lady of the night. Bianco, Jim Bianco. Anyway, we're looking at quarterly year over year earnings growth, the S&P 500.

12:04And we're looking at just operating earnings in the blue and that gray bar that last Q2 2026 gray bar is what the year over year earnings growth would be if you included the realized investments. All of the other blue bars do not include it. So two things I want to point out here. Thing number one, we're coming off of what is already a pretty high base, right? A one year ago, four quarters ago earnings were already above average or right at average. Right? So that's one thing. The other thing is the earnings growth is still incredible without the unrealized gains and investments. So we're just at in a period of time where earnings are incredible. Sean, before we get to your next chart about that we're already at a high base, you just thought on one more time because I think I was confused and I think the viewer might be confused. The labels, the Q2 2026 earnings growth X and Y, they'll say the same thing, right? But my eyes are not deceiving me. No, yeah, you're correct. Okay, but what you're, but what we're looking at here is the gray bar on top of the blue bar, that's if you include all of the all of the non operating earnings, all of the increases and the valuations of some of these privately finance companies that Nvidia is investing in for example,

13:17exactly right? Yeah, that's correct. Okay, so take that top off that top gray bar and it's still in same growth. Yeah, all right, next chart. This reminded me of a charcade mat hitter from charcade mat.com. The base matter. So if you look at earnings growth, this is S&P 500, you're over your earnings growth for tech quarterly. And like I mentioned, the base, we are right now coming off of a average to high base, same thing for tech, right? So if you look at the few quarters from 2020 into 2021, earnings growth was incredible because the base was so low from COVID, right? The comps were very easy. But if you fast forward to 2025, the earnings growth that we're looking at here, it's not off of a low base. It's actually off of a high base, which makes it all the more meaningful and insanely improbable. All right, we're going to move on to the Peter Lynch thing, but before we do, I know what you're thinking. Wow, that's a snazzy shirt. You're right. So we did a collab with Tropical Bros and we've got a new one dropping for future proof next week.

14:26We also have a woman's cut. So we made that available for inquiring minds. If you are at the festival and you want a chance to win one of these snazzy looking polos and they are quite comfy, come by the booth and we'll see what we can do. All right. So I was thinking about this. There are so many name brand stocks getting sent into outer space. So Matt, you made me a chart of some of these. This is my chart. Oh, hell yeah. All right. So the title is a bit cute. It says do not invest what you know. So before we go to this chart, Peter Lynch is probably really annoyed at this segment because he's been dealing with his entire career since he retired. And he didn't just say blindly buy what you know. Okay. In fairness, he said maybe think about what you consume on a daily basis, which I should have done in 2012 when I was in a Chipotle every day. And think, Oh, like I'm using this product, this service all the time. Maybe there are other people just like me. All right. With that caveat aside, holy smokes chart on.

15:34There are so many names that we know and love to varying degrees. Getting wrecked auto zone and a 32% drawdown. Domino's pizza down 28% Lululemon down 55% Uber 28 Nike down 50. By the way, Nike's market cap is down to $56 billion. And it just cannot cannot get off the mat. No bounce whatsoever. And finally, my beloved Netflix is in a 40% drawdown. When you chart off, please. When you guys see this and digest it, what is the takeaway? Sean, you start. When I was in high school, I first started looking at this types of stuff because like you see target and you see the ticker and you know it and you're aware of it. You see Nike and you're like, I know this brand. Like I want to invest in it. I like their products and like it's a very simple way to invest in things. And I think with Peter Lynch, like he wrote a lot about it. The first book I read was a Peter Lynch book.

16:35Invest in what you know. Like I forget what stock he invested in, but it did incredible. And it was something that his wife used. And so it just it's intuitive, but obviously it doesn't work all the time. Chart. I started trying to put money in the market when I was I think a sophomore in college. And so it was like 2024. This is this is like this is like literally actually December 2019. Okay. And I had only bought individual stocks. Okay. I could almost remember it was like proctoring gamble. I think Apple was in the mix, but you know Coca-Cola, all of these know what you own. And I was reading the same books as Sean. I think the best thing that could happen to me is COVID happened and these things got cut and like you know these stocks got crushed. And I sold like a dumbass. And it was the best thing that happened to me because even I knew these stocks. And then I knew that just because I understood them and I might understand their business models that didn't give me an edge.

17:37And I just started indexing. And for me as a young person, it's actually been very helpful that some of these know what you own stocks have gotten cream. Because these are the things that I did on it and they didn't work. And even though I was going to Chipotle every single weekend after football practice, the stock wouldn't go up. And like you said Michael, the stock doesn't know you own it. I thought it did for a very long time. And it never did. And it went down and I sold and I started indexing. And it actually worked out. That's my point to take. I don't have this chart made, but McDonald's for example, probably the ultimate by what you know stock. If you look at a ratio of McDonald's divided by the S&P 500, which basically shows you like how one is performing first of the other. McDonald's hasn't outperformed since 2007. Like it is crashing relative to the S&P. Unbelievable stuff. Nike's at the same price since 2014. Like it has its own lost decade. Like it's incredible.

18:40So you look at charts like this and say, man, this is really, really hard. I'm just going to not do this anymore. And then you do it anyway. At least I do. I can't help it. That's right. Yeah, we all do. All right. Wait, can I add one thing? John, can I throw up the butt also? Do you want to do that? Wait, wait, wait, wait. Before we get there. I just want to say one thing on this. There was a so Michael Barry was buying Lulu Lemon, which seems strange at the time. And then Lulu reported earnings last week, got smoked. And he revealed in a sub stack, which I was curious to read. But I really feel like spending 50 bucks a month for Michael Barry. He said he's going to it's his biggest position, which seems very curious. And he wanted to aggressively add below $100. I never got below $100. But wait, wait, wait, I want to jump in here. Yeah, because I think like the general sentiment, you know, people put Michael Barry's tweets to say sell and they put them on an S&P 500 chart. And it just goes up.

19:43But like I actually do. Like I do listen when I see something like that. Like it does impact me as an investor. It does. I'm like, hold on a second. Maybe he's right. You know, like it's very easy to just pass it off, I think. But you know, I know he was right one time and it probably impacts the way things about things. But I do think that he's a smart man and probably has, you know, he could be right. It's all I'm saying is he could be right. And Lulu or in general on Lulu, no, not in general on a specific stock. You know, it's like almost like so specific. Well, you should have kept that to yourself. But I'm only teasing to varying degrees to varying degrees. We are all influenced by things that we hear other people say, especially people that have done incredibly well. I mean, obviously, that's, you know, that's part of the deal. All right, Sean. So on the other side, there's also things that you know that have worked short and really well. Apple, for example. So what did you bring? Yeah, so you didn't ask for this. But I just, this is this is a whole thing for me is that investing is difficult. Like we could, we could start with Peter Lynch and say invest in what you know.

20:51And then everything that you know doesn't do poorly. And then so then, okay, is our new iron cloud rule never in investing anything that you know. And the answer is no. Like we could have commenters coming in saying, Hey, dummy is like go look at Apple, go look at Airbnb, right? Go look at monster. Like some target. Like some of the most well known brands are doing incredible. So I think just the takeaway for me is that just because you know a brand and use their product does not mean that they're a stock that you should be investing in. Correct. There are no iron clad rules in the stock market. Yeah. All right. So I am listening to a new book 1873 and it was all about the early one of the earliest global economic truly global economic and stock market booms and about the raw shiels and financing out the railroad bill that are not just about the railroads, but they go like geography by geography. And it's it's a good good listen. And one of the key ingredients around every single mania bubble bull market whatever is fraud.

22:00It always happens. And I was talking to Josh about this. And I said, where's the fraud? And he said, what are you talking about it? And I said, say it for the show. So I don't know what he was going to say, but one of the I think one of the points that he this is the first point that he made that I said that I said, you find out about the fraud after, which is fair and obvious. But if you think about the last mania that we lived through, which was four years, five years ago, right, like 2020 was legit mania. And I think, you know, we many people said in real time, this is, you know, this is nuts. Price of sales ratio, how many stocks were trading with the pieces of sales ratio above, I don't know what the crazy numbers above 30. I mean, it was, it was nuts. So as I have this topic in the doc, some new shit has come to light. All right.

23:00Forget about the markwater thing because while that is very, very much in the headlines and it's an incredible story, he bought the Dodgers in 2012. So yes, there's, but, but like his whole empire is not a result of the market environment today. So put that alleged self dealing to the side. What I'm about to present to you is not any fraud per se. It's just things. So to be clear, not fraud. I want to say per se is not fraud. Okay. I'm not alleging fraud. But it is certainly things you see that make you maybe tighten your stops or maybe take a little bit less risk or maybe not do the leverage thing. Okay. So the timing on this was really shifts. I think I saw this over the weekend. I didn't read the article because frankly, who gives a shit. But Hunter Biden enters the cryptosphere with a new meme coin. Okay. All right. We're doing this. We're doing this again. Then yesterday or when was this whatever Friday, whatever it was, LeBron James doing a deal with polymarket alongside my beloved Eli Manning.

24:16And I think Aaron judges involved. Then yesterday, I saw Robin Hood is playing an official part in the IPO process for the wellness app. The ring. I think is part of this deal. I don't know. Laura, now I actually did read this article and I do like Robin Hood. They're not they're not like the lead dog here. There, there's 18 different participants in this IPO and they are 18 out of 18. But still. Now in 21, we saw the fraud in real time, right? Like we don't need to, we don't need to dig at old scabs, but we saw it. In 2026, do you guys see anything that's outright fraudulent that if we are on the other side of this is going to be very obvious? And also does that even matter? Is that like an absolute necessary ingredient for greed? What do you guys think?

25:17I feel like the hundred Biden thing, like they're kind of just jabbing at the other side, like politically. The other stuff, like I don't know, like the polymarket LeBron James, I'm not sure if I would consider that like speculation fraud. I mean, I guess I'm this off-road. There's nothing fraudulent about it. It's just we're in a bull market and this is bull market behavior. I don't know. I think it's getting a little cute. Like Robin Hood has been doing IPO stuff for a while, right? I think they're doing IPO stuff in in 2022. Not like this. They were getting an allocation. They're now part of the syndicate. True. Yeah, I think I always find the magazine article stuff and trying to like point to these types of things is a little bit cute for me. That's what I think. Chart? Yeah, I don't know if I'm like seeing anything that's just like outright fraud. You know, is it illegal for, for example, I was in Rhode Island over the weekend. There's some sports betting there. You can't do it. But draft kings flips their UI. So all of a sudden you start seeing things. It like from the betting odds, but you can bet through draft kings. And instead of minus 110, it syncs up with like what the odds would be on something like a polymarket.

26:19So you're so essentially like mimicking the prediction market. And like, is that fraudulent? No. No. It's not fraudulent. But you know, it does feel that it's just getting kind of cute. And can maybe we look back in a few years and we see some of these headlines and we put them on a chart and say that maybe it marked some sort of like important turning point maybe, but like that wouldn't be something that I would bet on. All right. I've got fraud for you. I forgot this. Me a couple are ready. Credit to me. Hand up. There was fraud very recently. In the which which IPO I guess in the space expo. Nothing to do with space X on their part. But there was a lot of SPVs on SPVs. These were the Russian egg dolls where people thought they held shares. And they were excited for life changing money. And in fact, they either didn't. Or there was just there was some bullshit going on. So that is it. That literally is fraud. And that actually just happened two months ago.

27:23And that probably that type of stuff probably only happens during massive bull markets when there's incredible IPO is happening. Right. Yeah. Okay. So all right. Let's do this. You know, chart. Take it away. All right. Here we go. So on June 20th, 2025, we did an episode on TKF with myself, Michael and Todd Soden Josh. And Michael, you said we are not and we are quote at an absolutely critical juncture for Apple. John, can we put this chart on setting the table? Here we go. So this is a ratio chart that Michael, you had shared during the during the podcast prior. And I put a dot when that episode aired. And this is just looking at Apple divided by spy. And your point was look, there's a very critical line in the sand that we were at. We said, okay, Apple is either going to break down. And it's going to be very bad or it's going to be up or we'll just see or this is going to be a rebounding point.

28:26Exactly what it was was a rebounding point. Which, you know, I guess this is also just a marking of the importance of technical analysis, right? Like you saw a very important level that it had touched multiple times. And it held that line. And then if you want to go to the next chart, John. All right. So now we're this is showing Apple correlation and correlation with the NASDAF 100. So Apple is coming, becoming extremely uncorrelated with the remaining other 99 NASDAF 100 stocks. And this is going back to 2003. This is a very long time. Wait, it's not just uncorrelated. It's negatively correlated. Completely, yeah, negatively uncorrelated. So if you just go back 30 trading days and look at the, look at the NASDAF 100 versus Apple, they're doing completely the opposite things. And so it looks like this is just a function of the market picking other winners or maybe this is a function of the other stocks and the NASDAF performing well and it's a function of broadening, but it's. They're quite moving the opposite directions. There's a lot of ingredients going on in the story and the chart that you opened with for Apple Spy. This is why we respect technicals.

29:35Anybody could have looked at this chart and said, all right, like clearly there is something happening here for reasons that don't matter. But this was, that was a critical point in time and the market did what it did as far as what's happening right now today. Josh was early on this, I credit to him. Apple is so divorced from the current news flow as far as A.I. is everything. No, it's too much. Like they are the only ones we made this chart earlier showing. CapEx spend, we did this like a year or two ago, maybe CapEx spend this percent of revenue and we said, what the hell is Apple doing? What is Tim Cook thinking? They're just not in the game at all. And Josh made the case last week on why Tim Cook deserves to be in the Mount Rushmore. Maybe for some of the things, some of the decisions that he didn't make, that he very deliberately, not decisions that he didn't make.

30:36Decisions that he chose, things that he chose not to do deliberately to avoid and he could have definitely steered them in this direction of doing what everybody else is doing. But he went the other way and now you have it with a negative correlation, negative to its constituents. And the other part of this story is just the overall market correlation is extraordinarily low. So zero hedge tweeted, this is from Goldman. We just traded through the lowest realized correlation period in recent history. In the last 25 years, only two periods have seen this correlation before. And they weren't great, whatever it's worth, which in my opinion is not much, but 2007 and 2018. Now this is not sustainable. Sean, or Chart, you asked like, are we going to see earnings come back into the channel as AI going to make earnings after a new paradigm? You know, whatever, who knows?

31:39I know for a fact that this relationship is not sustainable. Now it doesn't mean that the crisis coming or anything, you know, I'm not suggesting that, but this will change because all it takes is one risk of event when correlation spike to one. Right? What do you guys think is going on with Apple and the broader correlation story? I wish I had this chart in here. Excuse me, my voice, my God. It's OK. Momentum and the Mag 7 has been as uncorrelated in history since the MTUM ETF launched, which is kind of wild. So in other words, the Mag 7 is no longer momentum and it had been for a very long time. Well, because how much of MTUM was the Mag 7? Exactly. Yeah, so I think that's a part of it is like we're getting rotation, which I know the chart that you just laid out is not those dates aren't great when these stocks aren't correlated with each other. But I think it's great, right? Like health care and all of the other sectors, energy are kind of holding us up, holding the index up as these other sectors kind of, you know, feel the pain, I guess.

32:44I think you're right. It's wonderful. Right now at this moment of time, I feel like the the news cycle, the things that I'm talking about every week, it's getting really repetitive. And I wish something would happen. That was the market for 2023 and so many years where it's like, I have nothing else to say about the Mag 7. I don't know what else to do. So I think this is great. Matt, anything from you? Like, show me this. No, I do. I just do, you know, if you show me this chart without knowing anything else on what's happening in the market, right? This the realized the realized correlation chart. That sounds like there's a lot of chart. There's a lot of stocks within the index that are performing opposite to one another. And that's to me. Great. I mean, you're seeing rotation out of certain areas and into others and you're seeing like very intentional selling of certain pockets to buy others. There's no like this. Yes, I would say it's confused intentional selling. Because people don't know because we're in such an uncertain environment, which I know is cliche, but we really are that it's either this basket or that basket or this basket or that basket or no software is actually back and right like the news flow is changing on a on a daily and weekly basis.

33:59100% right the conditions are different this time versus the past ones to which also means that there's probably no signal in this versus like looking back at February 2007. I agree with your conclusion. All right, before we leave this topic tomorrow is John Ternis's first big reveal. They are going to be showing the world. I think the foldable iPhone, which they were saying like, well, hang on, like other companies. This is not like a new thing. Samsung's having the foldable iPhone forever. I think in order for Apple to do it, at least this is what I read in the article in order for them to do that they acknowledge as technology has been around. It would have been prohibitively expensive. All right, fine, whatever. It's still fucking expensive. So this new phone is going to debut at over $2,000. I'm excited about it though. So I want I want to ask you guys, is this going to be a flop or is this going to be yet another smash from Apple chart? You're not in. What do you think? I think this is so smart. I can. So I wrote that blog post about how like there's sort of like this increase in nostalgia now and like going back to a previous period in time and kind of like the boom of analog.

35:15And I think that this is a play on that like I do think that I think people are just it's nauseating to open up your phone and be inundated with Instagram real notifications and for the younger folks Snapchat. And I think that people just don't need the interface of having a screen in front of you all the time. And so just the process of folding it open. It's going to be I think a lot of people are going to ditch. I really do think it's going to be a great a great product release like people are going to say ditch their current iPhones and show and switch. So what do you think? I'm going to go the other way. I want it to work because I like Apple and I like their products and I like innovation and I think it's interesting that they're putting something new out which I haven't done in what feels like a long time. However, $2,000 for a phone feels like a lot. Matt, you said this but people are trying to be on their phones less like with more screen. I feel like this is for people who are watching movies or shows on their phone. Like I don't know like I feel like people aren't going to want to pay $2,000 for something that's just like they they're already getting tired of you know but who knows I'd be happy to be wrong.

36:17I am firmly on the fence on this one. I really do see both sides. I really do see this as like a come on. Looking back like you thought that they were going to be able to charge people $2,000 for a phone. But the way that it's financing stays people have no governor anymore what they pay for and it's like you have to give them you know give them your credit card. I mean it's it's in the it's in the bill. I could ever buy the the Apple VR things right like who would ever do that morons morons. I said yeah when you close the phone. Does it whatever I will find out tomorrow okay I want to talk about this. We and others spent a whole lot of time. When SpaceX was $110 saying uh oh how low is it going to go. When the unlock actually happens and credit to me I believe that I was like it's on the calendar. Who has the ability to sell shares is going to sell them at $110 when they IPO at $150 and it was $200 bucks five hours ago.

37:25Right like who's just going to done by and you sure some people will but there's also going to be buyers and this index funds involves so um chart walk us through the Google search chart that you made. Yes so John could we throw up the chart that shows SpaceX price for search interest okay so Michael was just looking at Google search interest today and you saw that the uh the peek in Google search interest for SpaceX correlated to the bottom and at the actual space X price that's what you're looking at. So look people got a lot less interested in SpaceX at the same time that the actual stock bottomed and it went from $108 to $154 today. Markets are so difficult and you know this is just another example of taking the other side actually working out. So up 50% since then and you know what's funny Matt. Try not to please I actually so I said you the data the thing that I put into the search history into Google search and it's the exact same chart I put in SpaceX unlock.

38:29But it's the exact same shape this is all that anybody was talking about so um we had the unlock and it's a staggered unlock and this could be more coming but I think it was like 900 million share I mean it was a lot it was a lot that came to market and guess what. The market freaking absorbed it and we just moved on I haven't seen anybody say hey all those fears all those articles all that time that we spent talk about the unlock the only on that was the bottom funny how markets work. All right so now they're friend of not tweeted an article from from Bloomberg and it's basically saying that the the waiting of SpaceX right now is one and a quarter percent. That's the 19th truck out tweet off for one second let me just set this up. I know it's hard to like read the tweet read listen to me. All right so it was 1.25% of the Nasdaq which was the 19th biggest waiting. Despite the fact that it had the sixth largest market cap in the world at two trillion dollars so Bloomberg is saying that the waiting could hit 1.5% after the rebalance now there's a rebalance that's going to bring on more buying pressure so maybe some of the unlock is being soaked up by the index rebalance okay back to Dave's tweet.

39:40So Dave said while the article ignores that the Nasdaq re wrote the rules just for this event okay worth noting that the SpaceX lock up coincides with a massive massive cues and related by order as their waiting increases but the bottom line is this Dave said good luck figuring out whether supply is more than demand in a few weeks. Yes so like I might take here is like there are like known risks and there's unknown risks and the known risks are priced in the second that we all we all know them. What is on the calendar it's on the calendar it's a different thing it's in the prospectus you can go and read it it's already priced in and so it's like how can that information that's priced in how can that information change and that will move the needle on the stock like if we all expect Apple to have a really great announcement tomorrow and they are going to be a real good. They have a great announcement it doesn't really matter for the stock price but if they under deliver just slightly then it matters and it's like here like how is the actual news that information that we know today going to change over the next few months I think this point is like we know this information.

40:53And there's still more shares to be unlocked Michael I think you put in a chart of Bloomberg that there's like billions of shares left to be unlocked and the prices near its IPO high so my mind like I'm just in a blender is to how you can ever think that this is. Signal like this is just all noise to me I really do so I actually will take the other side of that at this point okay even though I just made the case it like all of the talk. Mark the bottom because it was on the calendar try back on this is a lot of supply this is a lot a lot a lot of supply and I would love to go ahead I mean can't you we just said it was priced in. What does it difference between 900 million shares unlocking and 5 billion you can only price in so much big Sean. This is my meme that I thought of with with the astronaut which is which is funny saying wait it's all priced in and the guy with the gun saying always has been. Shout out John that was great placement by you.

41:54All right before we get to the mystery chart any any final thoughts anything you want to live the audience with I think that the next podcast I do I'm not going to do math on it. Yeah so just for next time yeah yeah. Charter charts. If you can't really hear me I was at a wedding all weekend for my brother so shout it's my brother got married love you Carolina Michael and yeah I don't know if I'll be following Michael Buries stock picks but yeah they influenced me a little bit. It's okay you're human so my all right the chart that we're looking at today is let me start let me just start harder than I'll give you guys more clues as needed. It's the theme of 2026 and before we start to guess are you buying this chart.

42:55I am you're not going to buy this yet I'm not right now there is no evidence whatsoever whatsoever that this downtrend has been extinguished. I mean there's a button if you zoom in there are a bunch of higher lows but I know this is longer term I think you do what is it. Biotech not even close love you though. So okay Michael would you buy this chart I know we have to guess how about chart off I'm sure I got to look at you I said this has been the biggest theme of the year and I met it that was enough AI felt like too obvious that wasn't a rope it up this is truly this is. It doesn't look like any AI chart that I've ever seen all right let me give before I give you one more clue chart you want to win. I mean the theme of the years brought in it's a ratio chart. Yeah it's a ratio of course it's a ratio of a chart see that going down since 2021 it's something that sucks it's probably like a household name.

43:55Is it like that it's gone up recently I mean Nike looks horrible all right hold on just think about. Trot off please close think about what happened inside the market we've been talking about a lot over the last 45 days that's a random number but. It's healthcare divided by tech no but you're going to be you're going to be mad when I when you're. All right anything else there's a lot of effort Josh is. Yeah this is yeah sorry man yeah no go just go Michael I was going to say like real state divided by spy or something. All right that is software divided by semis. Oh geez man we're bad come on boys I mean you make it look pretty easy Michael you know like you're. I mean I'm very good at this but you guys but you guys look at charts all day too it's. Hold on you should have admitted that it was a ratio chart from the start. The why I knew that's the only thing I knew.

44:57And not someone slack those a ratio charts so you can't you can't pleading the. I'm pleading the fifth. All right you guys want to like apologize or all right I'm sorry we love all we love all the viewers and listeners we apologize. All right thank you everybody who tuned in for the live let's wish Josh well hopefully he is in good health for the event next week out in California. Hope everybody is enjoying the early stages of fall this is my favorite time of the year we've got football and Wednesday and Thursday and Sunday and Monday and. All right starting. Thank you for listening see you guys next time. Thank you. All right. All right. All right.

45:58All right. Get business done with the new American Express graphite business cash unlimited card with unlimited 2% cashback on all eligible purchases unlimited 5% cashback on flights and prepaid hotels but through American Express travel online and a flexible spending capacity that can grow with your business. You'll have the confidence to keep building apply today and are in a welcome offer of $1,500 cashback after you spend $50,000 in qualifying purchases on your new card within the first six months of card membership. Terms apply learn more at go.com.xlashgraphite.