Stocks Jump Higher On Hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal

Welcome to Risk Reversals Market Matrix, your AI-generated podcast curated by Guy

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I'm your host, Brunson, and all of today's market data is provided by FACSET.

It's Wednesday, March 25, and these are your top stories.

Stocks climbed Wednesday as oil prices pulled back on fresh developments in the Iran War,

the Dow gaining 300 points, and the S&P 500, and NASDAQ each up more than half of a percent.

The moves came after the Associated Press, reported that Iran received a 15-point US peace

proposal delivered via Pakistan, though Iranian state media quickly rejected the offer,

laying out a five-point counterplan that includes granting Iran control over the strait

of Hormuz.

All fell on the news, with WTY dropping to $91, and Brent falling to $102.88, while Treasury

yields also tumbled.

The two sides remain far apart.

The Wall Street Journal separately reported the US is deploying the Army's 82nd Airborne

Division to the region, and markets have swung sharply all week, as conflicting signals

on negotiations have emerged.

Tech led the rally within video, AMD, and Intel all jumping, while financials and industrials

also gain.

Wall Street is cutting its US economic forecasts as the Iran War's impact comes into view,

with Goldman Sachs raising recession odds to 30 percent, and projecting unemployment rising

to 4.6 percent by year end.

Bloomberg notes that gas prices have surged more than 30 percent this month to around $4

a gallon, the biggest spike since Hurricane Katrina, with several firms now forecasting

inflation closer to 3 percent than 2 percent this year.

Morgan Stanley downgraded its consumer spending forecast to 1.7 percent growth, saying

the oil shock has effectively neutralized the tax refund bump, while a growing fertilizer

shortage tied to the conflict is set to push food prices higher.

Most forecasters still see overall US growth around 2 percent in 2026, with ongoing AI data

center investment acting as a relative buffer, and several firms including City still expect

the fed to resume rate cuts at some point this year.

In an interview with CNBC, Goldman Sachs senior chairman Lloyd Blankfein warned that the

damage from the Iran War is going to last, even if there were a resolution tomorrow,

cautioning that infrastructure damage and disrupted oil supplies through the straight

of Hormuz will keep markets under stress regardless of how the conflict ends.

Blankfein urged investors to avoid conviction trades in either direction, saying it's

equally dangerous to assume full resolution, as it is to assume the war never ends.

And recommended investors be very fleet of foot and very protective of their positions

through hedging and contingency planning.

He also flagged private markets as a lingering risk, warning that valuation marks in private

fund portfolios haven't been tested as equity markets have risen.

There has to be a reckoning, we haven't had one, and the longer between reckonings

the worse it could potentially be, he said.

When Axios article highlights just how shaky the private credit market is, with fresh warning

signs from Apollo Global Management and Aries Management limiting withdrawals as redemption

surge, while Moody's just downgraded a KKR-linked fund to junk.

The pressure is centered on software loans facing AI disruption, with Goldman Sachs estimating

worst case losses of $105 billion, potentially cutting new lending by 5-6%.

Meanwhile, risk is building under the surface.

More borrowers are deferring interest, and covenant-light structures delay signs of stress.

With approximately $2 trillion in bank loans tied to non-bank lenders and insurers heavily

exposed, any downturn could spill well beyond Wall Street.

Something regulators like the ECB and SEC are now watching closely.

A Wall Street Journal piece dives into how the AI boom has fundamentally redrawn the

map of the world's most valuable companies.

With seven semi-conductor firms, now sitting in the Global Top 25, up from just three

three years ago, Nvidia leads the pack at number one with a market cap of nearly $4.3 trillion,

up from $661 billion in 2023.

While worldwide chip revenues are projected to hit $1 trillion this year, a milestone

forecasters once thought was a decade away.

The surge is pulling new names into the elite tier.

Broadcom, ASML, and Micron have all cracked the top 25 for the first time.

While South Korea's SK Heinex, a key supplier of the high-bandwidth memory that powers

Nvidia's AI chips, has seen its stock grow nearly fivefold since the start of 2025,

and is now pursuing a US listing that could raise roughly $10 billion.

The chip industry's rise is arguably the defining financial story of the AI era, reshaping

global capital markets in ways that are still playing out.

Arm holdings is making a major strategic shift, launching its own AI server chip, the

ArmAGICPU, and stepping beyond its traditional role as a neutral design supplier under Softbank.

Heavy weights like Meta and OpenAI are already on board, alongside Cloudflare and SAP, as

CEO Renee Haas claims the chip can handle AI workloads more efficiently than GPUs dominated

by Nvidia.

According to the information, the move gives major AI spenders a credible alternative as

they look to reduce reliance on a single supplier, with Meta even co-developing the chip.

Notably, Nvidia's Jensen Huang offered a congratulatory message, a sign of how intertwined

Arm's architecture already is across the ecosystem, including within Nvidia's own chips.

If the AIGICPU delivers, this could quietly reshape the AI hardware landscape without

a direct showdown.

The Wall Street Journal reports a jury found Meta and YouTube negligent in a landmark social

media addiction trial, ordering $3 million in damages to a plaintiff who testified that

years of use beginning before her teens contributed to anxiety, depression, and body dysmorphia.

The case targeted app design rather than content, allowing it to sidestep section 230 protections

that have long shielded tech companies from liability, with the jury also determining

additional punitive damages are warranted.

It's the second blow to Meta this week, after a $375 million verdict in New Mexico overfailure

to protect miners from explicit content, and with 3,000 plus similar lawsuits pending

in California, the verdict could trigger a wave of settlements industry-wide.

Now to the partial government shutdown, which is putting severe strain on TSA and driving

some of the longest wait times on record.

According to Bloomberg, the agency has already lost more than 480 officers during the funding

laps, and at some major airports as many as 40 to 50% of officers have called out on

certain days, forcing TSA to consolidate screening lanes and shut down pre-check and clear

operations.

I, CE agents, have been deployed to assist with non-specialized screening functions, drawing

pushback from Democrats who questioned their training for the role.

With the shutdown deadlocked in Washington over immigration enforcement disputes, McNeil

warned the situation will only get harder to stabilize ahead of the summer travel surge,

and the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

That's your risk-reversal market matrix.

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All of the articles mentioned on today's podcast can be found in the show description.

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Story Curation by Risk Reversal, Scripts by PerplexityProw, Voice by 11 Laps.

I'm Brunson.

Thanks for listening.