Strikes on Iran will have huge implications far beyond the Middle East, analyst says

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With the US and Israel launching this war with Iran,

this could be one of the most consequential days

for the Middle East in generations.

To put it all in the context, let's bring in

analyst and author Douglas Murray.

Plus chief Washington correspondent, Major Garrett.

Major weight right there.

I'm going to start with Douglas here on set.

There's reporting from the Wall Street Journal tonight

that Israel has managed to hack a popular Iranian prayer app.

And it is sending messages telling members

of the revolutionary guard to leave and liberate the country.

What do you make of that?

A festival, it's a tactic that the Israelis have used elsewhere.

They've used it in Gaza.

They've used it against Hezbollah and Lebanon.

So it's a familiar tactic.

The message itself is simply reiterating

what President Trump said in his late night message,

which is to request that the revolution regards

the Bastion others, put down their weapons.

And in Trump's language, he said last night,

now is the time to do that.

Otherwise, there's another route further down the road.

So let's talk about the otherwise.

What are the implications in the days, weeks,

or longer ahead for America, Iran, the world?

Well, the first thing is, of course, is,

I mean, you mentioned at the beginning how historic this is.

I mean, since 1979, the Iranian Revolutionary Government

has first been repressing, of course, the Iranian people.

It's been colonizing the entire region.

It's been colonizing Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen.

And of course, it's been the world's foremost sponsor of terror.

So the fact that that regime seems to have been

certainly decapitated and seems now to be tottering

means, first of all, that we will very likely

see a very different Middle East.

But there's a secondary thing, which is, of course,

and President Trump did refer that to this,

a bit in his remarks, perhaps not enough in my view,

was don't forget that the terrorism that this regime

has been spreading has not been limited to the Middle East.

The regime spread terror to South America.

It's tried to carry out assassinations here in New York

of dissidents.

It tried only a couple of years ago to kill a former American

secretary of state and a former national security advisor

in Washington, D.C.

So the fact that that foremost sponsor of terror

is now seemingly on its last legs is something

that's going to have huge implications

way beyond the Middle East.

All of what you said has been true, though, for a while now.

So why right now was it just the moment presented itself?

It seems to me that the moment presented itself.

I mean, if you consider the difference between what's

happened in the last 24 hours and what happened last summer,

last summer it was very clear that in the 12th day

war that decapitation of the regime,

specifically the targeting of the Ayatollah

was not on the table.

That seemed to be the one thing that was absolutely not

on the table, taking out the nuclear sites

was the main objective then, but not regime decapitation.

Something has changed in the last year.

Possibly, it's simply President Trump's realization

of the intractable nature of the Iranian Revolutionary

government and negotiations.

They have strung on negotiating team,

after negotiating team, from the West,

from the international community,

four decades on every one of these issues.

Douglas, thank you very much.

Major Garrett, I want to bring you into this conversation.

The president likes to describe himself

as the president of peace.

He ran a campaign of no more wars in the Middle East

and then from the perspective here

of someone in his own coalition, this looks like a new war.

What do you make of it?

Yes, but there are times Tony,

when we make the observation that President Trump

is so different than all of his predecessors

and operates differently and doesn't necessarily adhere

to the conventions of the presidency

as conducted by presidents before him.

In this one respect, there is a constant.

To pick up on the point just made, since 1979,

every American president has to one extent or another,

been frustrated, be deviled, deterred,

and in some cases haunted by the Islamic regime in Iran.

And it's use of terror cell networks

and proxies not just in the Middle East, Europe, South America,

even Asia.

Every American president has had to deal with this.

Carter, Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton,

all dealt with not only the Iranian Revolution in 1979,

but it's expansion of use of terror throughout the region.

And then it became a much bigger problem.

After 9-11, the global war on terror,

then it's nuclear ambitions that was Bush II,

that was Trump, Obama, Trump again.

Biden, all of them, have been dealing with this.

So that's one constant threat through the American presidency

from 1979 to now.

And it's at that point that I believe President Trump

is saying not only is the time now, but Iran and its regime

and its proxies have never been weaker.

So when they are weak, it's time to strike.

Not that they present this particularly malevolent new threat,

but it may be time now to deal with that long running threat

from a position of, if not maximum advantage, near maximum advantage.

But Major, we have midterm elections coming up.

The president does need to have a coalition in Congress.

This is difficult for them to explain to people.

The polling is not in favor of a unilateral strike

without approval from Congress.

How does this play?

Well, let's go right to our polling data, Tony,

on that very point.

Our polling unit talked to Americans

before the president's state of the Union address.

Ask one question.

Has the Trump administration clearly explained

the U.S. position on military action against Iran?

72 percent told us the answer to that question was no.

Only 28 percent believed the administration had clearly explained

what was about to happen or what it was contemplating.

Now, let's go after the state of the Union address.

We asked some other questions.

How should the United States approach Iran's current leadership?

Let's go to the lowest rated answer, 18 percent.

Remove them from power with force.

Then next, 22 percent do not get involved, 22 percent.

Pressure them with sanctions, 38 percent.

Negotiate with them through diplomacy.

We also asked, does Trump need approval from Congress

for military action?

74 percent, Tony, said yes, he does.

That's clearly not happening.

One last question.

U.S. military action against Iran to stop them

from making a nuclear weapon.

How did that come out?

51 percent would favor 49 percent.

And would oppose very closely divided on those central questions.

Tony.

All right, Major, thank you very much.

Douglas, while I have you here, I think of Rick Crawford, the congressman, his first

district there in Arkansas, the people sitting there tonight, and all over the country,

asking themselves, what does this have to do with my life?

How does it make my interest better?

Well, a huge amount is simply going to depend on the success or otherwise of this operation.

If you look at the polling data from the operation of Venezuela the other week, the initial response

among floating voters was pretty negative about it.

Once it turned out that, you know, an extraordinary operation, highly successful, Maduro seized and

brought to New York, those numbers of approval went up hugely.

But there's a caveat to that, and any Republican you speak to, and anyone in your administration

you speak to, as you know, knows this, which is none of these issues are actually mid-term

issues.

You know, it's the economy, it's cost of living at the mid-term issues.

But nevertheless, as was just mentioned, these are...

This issue of the Iranian Revolutionary Government is something that, as several people this

hour have said, has been deviled not just the Middle East, but America for 47 years now.

We have been strung along in the West on nuclear issues, on terrorism issues, and much more

all of this time.

Clearly, there was a moment that was seen that could be seized, Donald Trump seized it.

And if it's successful, I'll imagine this success will have an awful lot of people claiming

a bit of it.

Thank you very much, Major Garrett.

Thank you as well to you.

Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing.

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