STUNNING: Will Miami-FL's REVERSAL Continue Against Missouri?

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Where did this Miami Hurricanes basketball season come from?

And also which ways are Lockdown Bet's expert leaning?

Let's find out right now I'm Lockdown Mizzou.

You are Lockdown Mizzou, your daily podcast on the Missouri Tigers, part of the Lockdown

Podcast Network, your team every day.

Hey all you true sons and daughters, I'm John Miller, your Mizzou Mafioso, and the central

scrutinizer of Missouri Tigers football and basketball, and on today's program, I'm

going to talk with Lee Sterling of Lockdown Betz, not only about wagering this game and

a bunch of great tips on the tournament, Lee really knows his stuff by the way, but Lee

also lives in the Coral Gables Florida area.

Seize a town of Miami basketball too.

So to me, he's the perfect guy to talk to here on Lockdown Mizzou, but before I start,

I do quickly want to remind you today's episode is brought to you by Fandool.

Is giving you a way to turn your energy into an even bigger potential with a college

basketball parlay profit boost head to Fandool dot com to get started.

And without further ado, let's get started with Lee Sterling.

All right, time for another crossover edition of Lockdown Mizzou joining me now, Lee Sterling

from Lockdown Betz.

And we're definitely going to talk some wagering here in a little bit, but I want to start off

talking with Lee about this Missouri Miami game because, well, Lee is a Miami guy and

gets to see this hurricane's basketball program up close and personal all the time.

First year, by the way, with with Jay Lucas and former Missouri assistant CY Young, by

the way, how do you think this first year went down in Coral Gables?

Well, it was a total shock.

I mean, by the middle of last year with Jim Laranaga, so as a coach before he stepped

down, they literally, they had sometimes not even hundreds of fans at the game.

It was, it was, it was pick a section day.

It was that bad.

He just lost interest, you know, and it happened the year before when guys left who were back

up.

So you thought that they were going to, you know, stay around, you know, just like it

used to be, you put in a little bit of time, at least.

And those guys took off and took off for the money.

So it just, there was, there was nothing in the building.

They had a couple of injuries on top of that.

And then to hire a coach that people, they might have known the last name because of

his father, but people just weren't familiar with him.

But Lucas had done an incredible job at Duke and to build the scene, they did not have

one, not one player, not one starter, not one player returning from last year.

I didn't expect much.

The first of the year, they didn't look that good.

I went to a few games, even right out of the gate to see him.

They were nothing special.

I mean, they were better than, you know, the teams they were playing.

But no one really plays anyone.

And then to come on just to see them get better and better and better, they didn't beat

really any great team.

They caught North Carolina beat them after the Duke game.

But I can make a real strong argument that he deserved to be coach of the year.

Nothing against John Shire, you know, did a great job as team number one, but to take

a team that went 7 and 20, I think they're what, 25 and 8, something like that.

Just incredible, mind numbing as far as what a great job he did.

So got some good assistance too.

So specifically, how are the canes able to be such a shocking turnaround this season?

What are the strengths and weaknesses of this club?

So the weaknesses right out of the gate weren't relevant.

They couldn't shoot free throws and they couldn't shoot three pointers.

That's you saying.

I know.

Yeah.

But maybe even worse for Miami.

And they did perform better down the stretch.

Now the last game was kind of an aberration when trade Donaldson, their point guard got

in foul trouble and then got hurt.

But they, I just think it's hard work and cohesiveness.

It just shows you really what five maybe, maybe six or seven guys can do if they work together.

So I thought that that was the most refreshing part.

Do I think they think they can go far?

No.

I think it's pretty much one and done or one and then lose the second game.

But it was, it was, it was fun to watch this team compete and no bench at all, zero.

So no three point shooting, no free throw shooting, except for a few periods.

And absolutely no bench like their best two guys off the bench might be true Washington

number 10, the backup point guard and the guys that turn over kids that turn over machine

and Malavik at number 88 shoots three is at 33%.

But they're really non factors.

I mean, once in a while each will hit a couple shots, but they have absolutely no depth.

It's just five guys without a true governance center and all these other things that just

really work together and just shows you what Lucas can do.

He really coat, he really comes up with some great plays also out of the timeout, which

is important too.

I don't know which coach said this might have been Jim Valvano back in the day.

He said, you get me to, they played 12 minute, they played 12 minute quarters, right?

That's good.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So he said, you get me to the first 38 and I'll take you the last two minutes, I'll take

you home.

So just great calling plays out of the timeout him and his staff.

Yeah.

Incredibly.

Missouri 309th in free throw shooting.

Miami actually 311 so slightly worse.

You are correct.

And they had a one, they had a run where they're shooting the last 10 games that they perform

really well.

Well, good for them, I guess, gotta get, gotta get it up there somehow, but I have to

agree with you in terms of, I think Missouri would likely be one and done as well in this

scenario simply because that Purdue team just looks like a real world beetle right now.

I will say Purdue just beat Michigan.

I was saying, hey, I'd kind of rather have the way this Missouri team, the way this Missouri

team sets up the way they have two true centers and Sean Phillips and Trent Burns.

I kind of thought, you know, I'd rather play a team that has more of a classic center

than somebody like Cameron Booser who can take the Tigers big guys away from the basket.

So that was one of the first things I looked at Lee when I started looking at Miami

was, do the hurricanes have a stretch five?

It sure doesn't look like it's earnest to you, Doe, does it or you day, you day.

You days not.

If he takes a three pointer, the coach is probably on the sideline yelling, no, no, no.

I can't remember the last time he's seen, maybe he's taken a couple, but total non factor

shooting three.

So that, I think, is in your factor, what's interesting, the six losses they have in

conference and through the conference tournament, three, only three were away, mostly usually

C teams that defend the home court.

It wasn't really until late this season, last three, four home games where people started

showing up and only C7000 are home arena.

So they were getting 1500 2000, maybe 3000 for most other conference games and then they

then North Carolina shows up, it wasn't sold out, almost sold out.

And then things kind of snowballed from there and then the crowds got into it.

So for some reason, I can't explain, they do seem to play better on the road and some

teams do that, you know, you're bond and if you have a good bond, you know, unless you're

playing, you know, a place like Duke and you're totally outmatched, that's where they've had

the biggest problems against teams like Virginia on the road where they are outmatched.

They did lose to Clemson outmatched, maybe it didn't play well, but they beat the teams

that are similar to them or they're slightly better, they almost all the time.

So would you say Miami's best player is Malik Renaud or Trey Donaldson, you're a paid

player for the four Malik or the guard tray?

Yeah, I would say Malik Renaud is important because he scores 19 points and has 6.6 rebounds

and he does everything.

All five of the Miami guys defend extremely well, even Trey Donaldson and Trey Donaldson

remember, started at Auburn two years, then he goes to Michigan, he started, plays, scores

6 points per game at Auburn this sophomore year, then he goes to Michigan, I think he

scored 11 and he's just taking his game to the next level.

He's a ferocious defender, I've seen a couple times where good point guards, they're going

left, right, just going back and forth and he's able to get in front of him.

He plays extremely hard, I think he's the heart and soul of their team.

You get him in foul trouble, your chances are very good to win the game.

He can get by not shooting great also because he's a distributor and just a fiery leader.

He's what you want from a senior point guard and that probably is the most important thing

John.

When I handicap these tournament games, people are like, oh, you got to have a score.

No point guard because they can control the tempo and late in the game and this is probably

going to be a close game.

I would be shocked if either team wins by 8, 10, 12 points or more.

You got to hit free throws and usually your point guard is going to get fouled and you

got to shoot free throws and hit him.

Yeah, that Donaldson, that's an interesting matchup.

Six threes got pretty good size for that position.

Missouri has pretty good size of that position with Tio Barrett who's going to start but also

Anthony Robinson who was expected to be the starter coming into the season.

He's still part of the rotation.

By the way, also from Tallahassee, Florida, like Donaldson, they played at least one year

of high school together.

You mentioned Donaldson's a pretty fiery guy.

Robinson can be emotional too.

I heard they used to go at it pretty good back in the day.

And by the way, speaking of a point guard who will commit a foul or two, Robinson, Barrett

both are guilty of that at times for sure.

I think it's important to have the both of those guys really play hard against them and

try to tire them out.

And when he goes to the bench when Washington's in there, you can get some teams have been

able to press them and been able to get some turnover.

So that's what I would do outside of Donaldson.

I mean, Washington is an okay backup point guard, but not a real good ball handler.

So which way is our new buddy Lee leaning here?

Well, let's find out if Lee would be betting on this basketball game and his pit coming

up here on the other side of this break.

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Would you bet this game either way?

It's Miami minus one and a half right now over fandall.

What do you think?

So I've done pretty well going foreign against Miami, okay?

I would say that Miami has the edge here just because I think that they play better on

the road.

They bond together.

If they win this game and the line is under 10 against Purdue, I think they'll get blown

out.

So sometimes I probably won't, I'm almost sure I won't give out the game to my clients.

But what's important when you're a professional better is I always take notes as I'm watching

games.

Like I could be watching Maryland Baltimore County, you know, playing another team and

I'm taking notes and a lot of times nothing, make nothing of those notes.

But every once in a while something comes back and you're like, you know what?

This team, if they're playing against a team that doesn't have a center that can go outside

and take, you know, take the defense away, they can have some success.

So that's been, you know, part of my success in football and basketballs to take notes.

And sometimes your best bet is no bet, you know, people are out there betting.

There's some guys.

That's the biggest mistake rookie batters make is they bet on way too much.

I might not manage their bankroll.

Right.

I mean, there's some guys, there's one guy on radio has a game every Saturday on every

game on the board, college and pros.

Nobody has that much of an edge on every day.

It would take you like two hours, John, to grade all those games.

Exactly.

You know, five to seven games.

I know it's exciting.

People go to parties, they go to sportsbooks and casinos and one.

But try to limit to your, to your best plays point guard is very important when playing

the tournament.

And I don't really look at what a team does at home.

It means absolutely nothing.

I'm just looking at neutral site and away games because, you know, they're going to be playing

in places they really have never played before.

I think that's a great point and you get much more of a neutral whistle in the NCA tournament

of course than you do at home and that makes, can make just a massive difference.

We've seen that time and time again.

But as I said, you know, Lee Sterling, a Miami guy, well, guess who else has spent a lot

of time in Miami over his life?

New Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons, Lee, what do you think about, what do you think

about Austin?

I know you're very familiar with his game.

Yeah.

I love me.

I mean, he played very limited the year before and then started this year, but I like his

makeup.

It's always hard to really judge a lefty because it's completely different and it does take

the receivers some time to get used to, to catching a ball coming with different spin.

I was a left-footed punner, so I used to get a lot of guys that dropped my punts.

The muff master.

That's what they called you back in the day.

Yeah.

Well, besides I was always faking the pun, I felt it was an offensive play.

A lot of times no one's Russian, felt it was a time to take off, so yeah, but I like

his makeup.

I think he's really good and I think he's, he has a really high ceiling.

Some of these other quarterbacks they've had in the last couple of years haven't had

quite the ceiling that he has, but I think, you know, if they get him the right system,

he gets some confidence to start the season.

I think he can be one of the top two, three quarterbacks in the SEC.

Well, I love hearing that.

The one thing I didn't love hearing is that you're leaning toward Miami, but you're

not going to give it out to your subscribers, where, by the way, Lee has been on a heck of

a run here going 14 and two recently.

So that's why I was getting nervous when he's leaning toward the canes.

Really some, some bias is creeping into a usually objective man here.

But you know what?

Speaking of your objectivity, Lee, let's look just one more question here and I'll get

you out of here.

I just want to look kind of bigger picture at the field here.

I saw a stat.

I don't know if this is accurate, saw it online may not be accurate or not, but I saw

that this may be the first time ever that every top four seed is a double digit favorite

right now in the first round.

It seemed like last year there weren't a whole lot of upsets.

Is this the NIL portal era just pushing all the good players upward into the high major

teams?

Do you think this is a real trend here?

And maybe I think it capitalized on here in 2026.

What would I, what I feel is I think that the one and the two seeds and some of the fours

like and five, I thought St. John's got host, they should have been a three or four

seed.

I like the fact of making Miami Ohio, even though it's almost like a home game only a

couple hours away, making them play themselves in if they want to get in the real tournament.

So they're going to have to win that first game in Dayton.

So I liked, I liked, usually I've got like five or six pet peeves I didn't like, but

I liked that fact that they're making Miami Ohio play a name team SMU, even though they're

not playing extremely well right now, make them earn their way and you've got to play

a tough schedule.

So they deserve to be in, but you know, they didn't beat anyone and a couple of the other

like Alabama might could be without one of their key players who's arrested earlier

today unless I read something that's AI.

I mean, no, that was correct.

I saw an ESPN.

It's out there.

Yeah, Aiden Holloway was arrested on some type of drug charge.

Yeah, right.

So, you know, you got it, you got it, you got to know the rules.

So here's one of the funniest stories there, right?

A friend who moved from LA to Miami and he joins our March madness.

I was in a couple different ones, but he was in the big one.

I think it was like 100, 200 bucks, it was back in the day.

This is probably early 90s.

And what does he do?

He literally, I sent him all the rules and he goes out and picks the final four this

first year.

Nice.

So everyone thinks that he's another professional gambler.

He wasn't, he was an attorney just happened to move here, but he forgot to read the rules.

And the rules were, let's say 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and then maybe 50, 50 points in the

semifinals and finals.

He predicted so many upsets and got so many wrong, even though he got the final four,

he didn't make the top three.

So, know the rules, repeat the rule.

Don't be a hero.

Yeah.

Well, if the rules state, you get a lot, a lot of points for the first round.

There you go.

And then it goes down, then yeah, you know, but, but there are some, there are some brackets

and contests that give extra points for picking an upset, for example, oh, you'll get 16

if a 16 beats a one, but if the one wins, you'll get one point.

That's great.

Well, that changes the risk for award ratio.

Right.

You got it.

You got your rules.

That's the point.

Yeah.

Got another rules.

And if it goes from, let's say, one to two or one to three points, you can take some

chance or one to five, you can take some chances on some first round upsets and, and then

hit on something.

So, know the rules and have some fun with it.

You know, don't go crazy.

I had one, another friend went and went to Vegas and he bet 49 games, 49 games the first

day.

He went 25 and 24, which is great, but he lost, but he lost five or six bets because every

wager was also minus one 15, minus one 20, things like that.

So limited a little bit, if you're playing more than five to seven games in a day, probably

a little too much wise words from a winning wager, Lee Sterling, thanks for joining me.

You can check him out on locked on bets, of course, on this network and you can find

him on social media at a paramount sports, anything else you'd like to plug.

No, that's it.

Couple of teams.

I'm looking at first round.

I like Texas a little bit, and Miami, Ohio, in those first games, I think some lines

are going to move.

Last couple of years, these lines were really low and didn't move.

So you can get some Texas at plus one and a half, open to minus one and a half.

There's a few.

That's why it's important also to line shop.

If you got three or four apps, take the best line.

Don't just go with the one that you like the most, or as the prettiest background.

So I like Texas.

I got them at one and a half, like Miami, Ohio, plus seven and a half.

I like Kansas.

I think they're going to win and blow up fashion.

Another 200 dogs.

I like South Florida a lot.

I think South Florida.

Red hot right now and also Troy.

I think Troy can hang there in that game also.

Love it.

Thank you so much for your time.

Thanks for the picks.

Great stuff from Lee Sterling.

I'll see you soon, hopefully.

Thanks, Sean.

Thanks for having me.

And great stuff there from Lee Sterling.

And especially nice to hear more, more nice words and really positive words and

assessments about Austin Simmons.

I'll just say Simmons, a guy, again, from that Miami area, it seems like the people who

see Simmons up close and personal the most end up really, really liking the young man.

So just something that I thought I would note there.

But you know what?

Coming up on the program got more on this basketball game.

Dennis Gates with some interesting comments as per usual.

So yes, more to get to here on locked on Mizzou.

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And of course, as I'm sure you've probably heard by now, Missouri, actually the final

game of the first round on Friday and approximate 9 10 tip off, although these days with all

the replay reviews and everything seems like that'll almost certainly get pushed back.

Speaking of Lee Sterling, I'll take his action on getting that one pushed back, but also

as power mazoo pointed out on Twitter, I was saying, Hey, Missouri fans, let's get in

there and then fill fill the arena might be a little tougher than I was maybe initially

expecting.

Again, as power mazoo points out here, mazoo fans wanting tickets for Friday and St. Louis,

I'm told each school receives a very, this is an all caps here, very limited allotment.

For most, you'll need to go through other channels to get tickets to the NCAA tournament

game.

So game time or especially or through the official routes in the NCAA tournament.

But I will say this, I've seen a lot of talk.

Of course, about Missouri getting to St. Louis, obviously, Missouri is fortunate to be in

St. Louis.

I'll agree with that for sure, but I've seen some other people say that, well, maybe

this three game losing streak wasn't the worst thing in the world because at least that

got Missouri off of the eight nine line.

I suppose that may be slightly true on the margins, but I got to tell you Purdue might

be playing its best basketball right now.

Did you see the boiler makers against Michigan who's been one of the top three teams, let's

say, all season in NCAA basketball.

Listen, if Missouri was going to have to, if Missouri or Miami for that matter, whoever

ends up winning that game, it's going to be a

monumental task against Michigan or Purdue or Duke or whoever it might be as a top one,

or even a two seed.

I think as a two seed Purdue is about as tough of a match up as you're going to get at

this point.

And one of the reasons why it just seems like as I touched on this a little bit with Lee

in that second segment, it just seems like the talent just keeps creeping up higher

and higher into high major basketball.

And Dennis Gates said, by the way, that the 46% win percentage for teams on the road in

the SEC, that was the highest ever in the conference.

I'll just take his word for it on that one.

But to his point, that win percentage on the road, kind of shocking, I mean, not shocking

if you consider the changing landscape of college basketball, but it really does show

how much this sport has changed quite a bit in a few years.

Unfortunately, while the NCAA tournament, I think, I think the, I think we saw this

last year in the tournament.

I think it may well play out again this season.

I think your later games in the tournament will be really good basketball.

But if you're the type of fans that want to see some big upsets on Thursday and Friday,

I think you may need to adjust your expectations a little bit.

Hey, if they happen, that's great.

But don't expect a bunch of them because I think that that era might be coming to a

slight close.

It's never going to be 100% closed upsets are going to happen.

But again, just to repeat from the previous segment, every single one through four seed

is a double digit favorite right now, at least of last check.

This stuff can move around a little bit, but that's pretty much without precedent.

So I don't know if you're looking for a lot of major upsets, you're looking for the

Hampton coach to get hoisted into the air.

You're looking for the Val Parasos shot, that type of thing.

Again, expectations are an important part of life.

Let's set ours accordingly.

And by the way, one final thing I thought was interesting, Dennis Gates said on his schedule,

hey, there are a lot of people now who wish they scheduled like us.

Hey, for all the talk of the non-conference schedule, tough to say that Dennis Gates did

anything wrong here.

And you definitely won't do anything wrong if you continue to listen to Lockdown,

Mizzou this week, got plenty more coming for you on this game, going to do my own personal

scouting on the Canes, going to bring in Alex Dono of Lockdown, Hurricanes as well.

Going to be a great week here on Lockdown, Mizzou, hopefully the Tigers will make it even

better with a victory.

So until next time, I am John Miller, this has been Lockdown, Mizzou.