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Everybody, Peter Zine here coming to you from Colorado.
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Today we have to take a break from what's going on in Iran and look further north to
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Sweden of all places.
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The Swedes over the weekend have brought in a Russian shadow fleet vessel into their
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ports and basically have arrested the crew.
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This is interesting for a number of reasons.
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Number one, we've had a couple of dozen shadow vessels be captured by various powers.
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The United States, India, France, Belgium.
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This is the first for Sweden, and so we're seeing a broadening net of countries going after
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the shadow fleet, which is basically what the Russians have been depending upon in
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order to ferry things that are under sanctions around the world.
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Second, beyond this being Sweden's first one, this is the first shadow vessel that wasn't
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And it's unclear whether it was carrying cargo from the Middle East to Russia or stolen
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Ukrainian grain from Ukraine to Russia to somewhere else.
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Really doesn't matter specifically.
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The point is is that the entire shadow fleet, not just the tankers, everything that the
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Russians have been relying upon to maintain their reach beyond their own territory, is now
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under direct threat.
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We will probably see a complete dismemberment of the shadow fleet over the course of the
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And now that we have countries as minor as Belgium and countries as well placed as Sweden
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going after them because Sweden basically controls the Baltic Sea if it wants to, this
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should wrap up pretty quick.
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We're now in a weird little situation though where there's going to be a logistical issue
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The shadow fleet is over a thousand ships, and there are not enough port facilities in
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the world to take them all.
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It will probably happen at the end of the days.
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They'll all end up eventually in a place like Bangladesh or India where they will be
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broken down for their steal.
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All of the shadow fleet vessels are old.
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Most of them could not qualify for a normal insurance policy under normal circumstances and
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it's only because they're operating functionally illegal under the Russian banner that they
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But as logistical problems go, that's a really good problem to have.
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So in the meantime, they'll probably be dropping anchor off places until they can be unloaded
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but that will absolutely take weeks to months.
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So we are at the beginning of the end of the process and now we can start looking to the
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other side where we go from having a surplus of vessels in the world to a shortage of vessels
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in the world and where we have Russian crude and Iranian crude and Venezuelan crude and
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perhaps Saudi and Emirati and Kuwaiti crude all falling off of the market at the same
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So what was for me really dramatic when this started to happen about a month ago.
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Now with the Iran War, I don't want to say it's a routing era but this is just the
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lesser of the two big things going on and it's all happening at once so buckle up.
3:24
You're listening to a podcast right now, driving, working out, walking the dog.
3:29
If you're into podcasts, chances are you have something to say too.
3:33
With RSS.com, starting your own is free and easy.
3:37
Upload an episode and we distribute it to Apple podcasts, Spotify, Amazon music and
3:44
Back your listeners, see where they're from and start earning from ads like this.
3:49
Even with just 10 listeners a month.
3:51
If you've been thinking about starting a podcast, this is your sign.
3:55
Start free at RSS.com.
