Tariffs, Trust, and Tokyo

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Japan analyst Tobias Harris to unpack rising tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations amid the Trump administration’s tariff blitz. They explore how Japan—historically a close U.S. ally—is reacting to unclear demands, internal U.S. policy chaos, and the potential collapse of trust in American economic leadership. Tobias breaks down the limits of personal diplomacy, the legacy of Shinzo Abe, and why Japan is quietly building plan B trade alliances. They also cover Japan-China relations, a political shift in South Korea, and how domestic rice prices could determine Prime Minister Ishiba’s fate. Global stakes, local politics—fully intertwined.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:14) - Japan-US Trade Relations

(04:00) - Internal US Negotiation Issues

(09:39) - Japan's Strategic Dilemmas

(14:09) - Hypotheticals and Future Scenarios

(18:50) - Impact of Abe's Relationship with Trump

(24:10) - Japanese Relations with China

(25:25) - Japan's Efforts to Repair Relations

(28:31) - South Korea's New Leadership

(29:57) - Challenges in Japan-South Korea Relations

(36:13) - Japanese Domestic Politics

(40:50) - The Importance of Rice in Japanese Politics

(46:48) - Growing Interest in Japan

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Referenced in the Show:

Tobais' SubStack - https://observingjapan.substack.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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