TDI Podcast: Gerber on Ai, Tech and War (#963)

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your money and the markets. Sit back and get ready for this edition on the Disciplined Investor

podcast. This episode of the Disciplined Investor is sponsored by Horowitz and Company.

If you're looking for a portfolio manager look no further. Horowitz and Company from seed

brew harvest cultivating financial success. War and markets not a great mix. South Korea

tumbles the most in history. Inflation risk is real again and the Fed's quandary is getting worse

and our guest today. Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki all this and much more on episode number 963

of the Disciplined Investor podcast.

It's always something these days isn't it? I mean the good news is that investors well they

love their stocks. We love stocks. In fact it doesn't really matter seemingly if there's a war

of something going on in Mexico or maybe even an oil embargo would issue with energy around the

world. Yes. The lows the days held and bounced back extraordinarily on US stocks and we've seen

several days of these crazy moves just this week after the missiles were flying over the Middle East

but generally what we saw if you look at this in fact it looks like the trail of a missile

when you look at the actual stock on a bar candle style chart where you see that the lows were

down these long tails we call it and then right back up to the top. Each day that we saw the

sell off this week there was a little bit of damage done. Yes, but not so much. I mean we're talking

about this horrible feeling this crazy amount of risk the volatility VIX moving up to 24 and a half

or 25 and we're talking about two to three percent off of the recent highs on most indices in the US

lots of long tails lots of continued interest in buying US stocks were the ones again that we were

looking at around the world a little bit different traders picked up buying at the bottoms no real

technicals that were flashing any signals just price action is at least as I see it it was all this

oh my god it's down so much let's buy it wasn't like I would hit the 50 day moving out of bounce

to 200 to 150 to 100 or it wasn't like oh the MACD was showing that a conversion divergence

into the upside should be played or maybe the R squared or the the the the the the stochastics

or the bong bands or whatever you want to say the fact is that it was all about boy this looks like

it's really sold off a lot I'm going to buy in now kind of interesting but some things were

decisively sold I got to tell you something when we look at for example wow the Cosby Korean stock

market now remember something this market was up about 150% or so last year which is an extraordinary

number for a developed nation you don't usually see something like that unless it's

Venezuela that has inflation at a thousand percent per year the Cosby last year was the epicenter

of the tech trade the opportunity for a very small market capitalized index to gather and

garner all sorts of money and an interest thereby pushing it up dramatically then the momentum

traders took over and it was off to the races followed through this year with another 50% increase

in the first two months of this year until all of a sudden there was a selloff that was due to

what well the Middle East conflict it was kind of interesting what happened here we had a few

historic days one day I think it was on Wednesday their Wednesday 12% drop for the market

numerous market halts and why was that well we had an overbought a fundamentally overdone

kind of a over the skis kind of situation and once there was a hiccup with investors who

probably had an incredible amount of margin leverage in that market they said the hell with

some out and because against small capitalized markets said a lot of money moving in moving out

it was exacerbated because of a lot of different things one of the problems is that many countries

like South Korea really doesn't have oil they're reliant on others and who are they reliant on

well in this case it's places like the Middle East Iran etc and when you see that they are

freaking out because of a potential energy emergency things go a little crazy and then you add to

that the excessive margin that's on the account and the leverage in the system

and the momentum players falling over each other trying to get in and now trying to get out

as people little left you know hanging dry the rogue was pulled

India is another example of a of a market that does an incredible amount of reliance externally

for oil and and by the way if you didn't see it there was something else that happened

Europe is now in a pickle the problem is that in Qatar the one of the largest liquid natural gas

LNG producers and exporters about 20% of the world's LNG is shut down because of the bombings

etc that is causing a major crimp and it's still winter time we're starting to work into spring

here I know it's the beginning of March but we're working into spring but yet still winter

still cold still use of heating fuels of natural gas of course for factories and other things

like that but also for heating that price skyrocketed the LNG price and heating oil and we saw

LNG prices grew up 60% in one day I'm talking about European natural gas the natural gas

on their markets that's a big big big story the streets of hormones is closed and

even with the backdrop the promises of President Trump offering insurance and maybe even

escorts maybe escorts through the streets of hormones there's a lot of concern that we're going

to see oil rising in price and what's interesting is that oil did already rise in price but it wasn't

you know it's not that big of a deal it's just not that big of a deal we didn't see oil really

skyrocket there was some concern about a $20 move it moved what I don't know the range the range

was $15 $14 still not in a place that's you know above 80 it's not above 80 it's fine right now

and with that in mind the concern that everybody had about this huge increase or it's not happening

at the moment at the moment things can change there's some reports midweek that talked about how

Iran may be out of their missile capability then what they're going to be left alone they've

drones but then they're sitting there they pissed off everybody in the region and who knows how

fast this thing's going to shut down especially if there's no government no leadership no ability to

really coordinate any of this which is you know that was the goal right that was the goal to cut the

head off the the serpent and to reestablish what's going on there and then have basically a regime

change that can be much more friendly and we'll see how that goes you know this is a little bit

different because there's a lot of religious issues going on with this is not just simply a leader

that's a strong man this is a religious cleric the the the holy that was taken out and due to

Sharia law and the way that they work there you know it's a little bit of a different environment

but like I said not easy to point out but basically we could all say it's a lot going on

and and rightfully so volatility measures are are heightened but there's a lot of opportunity

don't forget that a lot of opportunity on all sides of this trade whether it's the short side

the long side a lot of opportunity and we'll say it again because I don't want you to forget it

I want you to recognize that this is not about fear and freaking out we had some people call us

last week you know wondering about this and nobody was freaking out or were worried to a point that

they were you know like oh my god I gotta do something bad but you know people naturally get

concerned upset about this now it also depends on how long you've been investing if you're new to

investing you're probably a lot more worried concerned about what's going on if you're an old hat

at it you've seen that wars in particular are those things that initially are shocks to the system

but then they kind of we get used to it and that takes some time but and hopefully

what I'm going to go that long with this particular conflict but if we do that's the progression

unless something comes home on our turf but the crazy thing that you have to understand

about war is that war in his perverse way is actually good economically in some degrees

clearly even if you are the recipient of the bombs it may not be good for you and of course

you as a person but the rebuild process is actually economically positive think about that

the act of actually getting and having bombs built munitions generated manufactured and then

the rubble cleared and then rebuilt all that is an economic benefit to various parties

something just to think about as horrible as that may sound

we're going to end there on this note because I want to spend a lot of time with our guest today

and he's a great one and someone who I really respect call a friend and who is a good friend

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PA. Now let me tell you about our guest real quick and then we'll bring him on he's waiting in the

wings draws Gerber he's co-founder and president and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki wealth and investment

management. He oversees Gerber Kawasaki's corporate and investment management corporations

as well as serves individual clients. He's become one of the most followed investors on

social and on traditional media. His investment ideas and advice have made him a regular and

business news and featured on CNN CNBC Fox Bloomberg Reuters your name and he's been there.

He received a BA in communications from the Annenberg School at the University of Pennsylvania

with a concentration in business law at the Wharton School of Business. He also completed a

second concentration in classical music studies and attended the Grove School of Music which we're

going to talk about. I have some questions for him. Let's bring him on right now.

Ross Gerber how are you? It's been a while. I'm pretty good you know it's been a definitely a

different week than I would have predicted a month ago but you know I I'm pretty happy about

the success we've been having so you know since the next week is going to be much different than

the week you would have predicted just this week. Right and I think that we're sort of entering

a new stage of in some ways history that is pretty you know uncertain what that will look like

you know a year from now. Yeah I want to talk about some of your personal stuff first do a

little warm up let people know a little bit more about who you are. So we know that you're a

musician you you you played guitar you played guitar who who was I think I know this answer but

who was your earliest musical inspiration that really set the stage for I want to do that?

Well the real story is a little bit you know unique in that I had an experience when I was 16

and in that experience it involved seeing the Woodstock Jimmy Hendrix performance on video

around two in a morning and during that experience I decided that I could not live my life without

actually playing music playing guitar and playing Jimmy Hendrix. So my original inspiration was

certainly Jimmy Hendrix and stills to this day and my my son's name is Jimmy spelled J I M I look

at that now let's go back also and talk about the early days of your music. You played with the

the first thing you played with was third eye and you played you played you played weekly. What's

you're digging deep. I got some deep stuff here. You played you played in college. You played

in place which was often to this day referred to as the penstitution the iconic Smokey Joe's

you know weekly right. That's right and I love Smokey Joe's and you know I was back there about

five years ago and Paul Ryan still runs it and I walk in there and I haven't seen him in a long time

and I was like you know I'm so and so and he was like oh my god how you doing you want to play

tonight you know I was like I was like really right you have like a certain memory of that spot

that you have something I have a thousand memories I you know I learned so much playing music and

Philadelphia four guys like Paul and and and the Irish guys that ran the bars over there and

still run the bars over there and and I learned life lessons that a kid who grew up in Bel air could

never learn in Bel air I love it now and now you're with the danger band that's been your band for

years well no that ended and yeah yeah unfortunately when covid hit we were sort of at a high I

just started a new music company too called cocoons and we were like we we rented a house in

Malibu turned it into a studio it was like amazing then at 2019 was like an amazing time in my

music career just like building stuff in my band and all this was like coming together and then

covid hit and when covid hit it was really detrimental to the music industry obviously and unfortunately

one of my band members committed suicide and it was a very it really really hard thing to deal with

in April of 2020 Tracy Reston peace and so since then I've played live twice and one time I was

lucky enough to play with Cisco others and famous artists in his band and of course they make me

sound really good and that was super fun and I played live once you know several years back but

I'm looking to start doing this again you know as soon as time allows I still play every day almost

in practice great yeah you know playing live is is wonderful and so I'm kind of trying to find

figure out a different way to do it so I kind of when I built my new office it's kind of partially

down that's great well if you need anybody in the band I could do either I have a hell of a

triangle and tambourine guy well tambourine has a role I don't know about the triangle yeah I know

well we can work with a tambourine all right let's talk about I want to talk about I've certain

things that I put together for our discussion here because I know we can go right into a lot of areas

and and I want to talk about AI the revolution the broader text landscape and you've been bullish

on videos dominance in the AI space right we know that yeah I've been bullish on in videos since

I was a little kid right exactly since since before and video even knew they were in video

right right they did know then well they knew they were in video game well video game they were

second fiddle my friend by a long shot for who now come on they would well to them to the

to the on the mother borders like what chip do you want it what you know was right right right

that's true that's I'm saying but like what we used to use like I don't know play stations

and in Xboxes or whatever and and the Nvidia PC route was sort of a different gamer route

than the console route which I was kind of a console guy so it was actually at a E3 I was telling

my kids about E3 because they don't do that anymore and it will used to be an just an amazing

experience to go you know and that's where I learned about Nvidia because they pulled me aside

and I said I listen I'm not interested in chips I'm interested in games so the guy goes no let me

show you because this is going to make games way better and that's when I invested in Nvidia so this

was long time ago and this was before crypto and everything else that got it really going and

and then through Tesla was really when I started understanding where GPUs fat fit in the autonomy

or ultimately what we call the AI equation now and and it was through GPUs this was now about 10

years ago at CES when when Jensen did his presentation it was like a big epiphany for us and

we put millions of dollars into Nvidia then on 2016 and and I was about a decade ago and it's been

just a wildly successful best cost basis zero so that's all that's like one exactly so you

recently had to see an end appearance I think it was like two weeks ago or a week and a half ago

and you talked about the AI trade you taught you highlighted Nvidia's strength here's my question

though you know and I think as a matter of fact Nvidia came out this week it talked about that they

think that last 30 bill with the B is the last time they're going to invest in an AI which I'm

I want to get into that discussion in a minute but do you see any risks in any of this AI

discussion like for example NNG constraints or maybe yeah like with what's going on with

anthropic with with it's not totally out there with anthropic with the government with regulation

over investment I don't know something is there something that's concerning well my basic

premise right now is everybody's concerned about the CapEx spend and I don't think they're going

to be able to deploy it all that rapidly so that that's my concern which you I think was the

first thing you said which was around infrastructure and infrastructure in the United States especially

around electricity is pretty old and poor and so just the idea that we're going to just like rapidly

ramp up energy is not that simple or easy to do and it's quite a you know expensive to fix and

upgrade electrical infrastructure and so we're in this period of time where electrical electric

prices are going up here in LA it was like a 20% increase in electric prices just this year and

and it's a big hit like I was like wow this is a big difference what we're playing per kilowatt

hour than what I was paying so I went from 25 cents to 30 cents and I was like wow you know that

like the demand for electricity is huge but the supply and the ability to ramp

this supply is not that easy and it's quite hard to deploy so so my basic thing is you're in this

race to meet the demand for inference and you know for AI and yet you know these companies are

going to struggle to be profitable because they're going to want to deploy the infrastructure and

do all this as rapidly as possible and it's very expensive to do it this way so I think that

the profits for AI will be more driven in industries like mine where we can get immediate

efficiencies from using AI that are profitable from like day one versus the actual AI companies

which have a lot of investment to do before they profit but I think in five years they'll be wildly

yeah but the problem we have right now is that you just stick stick on the energy issue for a second

here and you talk about the the infrastructure build and the amount of money that we're talking

about from the hyperscalers that are giving and again I want to save this because I have a different

part of this discussion about circular and vendor financing but I have a hold I've been on this

bandwagon for a while I can't get off it somebody somebody should talk me off of it but I can't

get it I'm going to try to talk you off of it today but um so you know you talk about this energy

situation recently we saw that there's this thing where data centers hyperscalers are going to

need to supply their own energy right we were all hold before this this SMR of the small module

reactors that whole thing that's not going to have scale I mean who knows how long that's going to

take if it's going to take five years to 10 years five years to 10 years right so everybody was

investing that was a big thing talk about the markets you know going in advance of things but where

are we going to get the energy to do all this we don't have it so how does that work so how does

that work then so so how it works is so how do I rapidly deploy new energy okay what Elon did was

he just bought a bunch of turbines and Memphis lied to the government told him they were temporary

and just been running them all full bore all day long and it's real bad for the environment you know

so just running like gas turbines you know to make energy you know it is it pollutes and so there's

a lot of rules now in Texas there aren't so you can do these kind of things which is where they

trouble right exactly but in California you're not doing anything like that so the first question

is like how do we increase energy supply rapidly and the best way to do that is through solar

deployment and battery systems so solar is the cheapest way to get energy quickest with battery

systems so we really like that business especially battery the market doesn't like that business

though let's be honest market's not real the margolags I'm just saying just saying from the

stuff it works I you know right but like renewable energy needs battery systems to really get the

most efficiency out of it and battery systems with renewable energy have proven to be the lowest cost

best source of energy so if we really want to do stuff we've got to just go all in and and start

you know really deploying things like solar rapidly and and we can't we have the ability to do this

so so I think it's just about investment the the second side of it which I think is harder

is the actual transmission lines and the actual infrastructure this is a whole nother level of

difficulty then just putting up solar power capturing energy and putting it in in a in a battery

or whatever now I got to build transmission lines that take this to the place so if I build my own

power around my data center you know and then it's a pretty simple process but that has to be

put into the economics of building the data center which is now I have to build a whole new energy

source and transmission for each data center how much more does it cost to do this so so that's why

I say it's going to take more time to deploy the infrastructure than people will want to accept

because there's a lot of like things that have to be done and then when you go to the

city or the county and you say I want to add my own energy infrastructure here it's you know

you've got to deal with politicians which means nothing happens fast and they probably also have

Ross tell me if I'm wrong about this is the energy consumption that we have right now with

we'll call it AI1 you know 1.0 conceptually right then moving into inference and then moving

into agentic as a whole it's not just a one two three the whole different level of consumption

it's already like maxed you know like we're using cloud a lot here at you know at work and

and like it'll be like okay you've you maxed out your usage today and it's like how much more can

we pay you know and then it was down the other day because there's so there's just so much to man

and and they have to like kind of limit it how much how many tokens you're using and you know a token

is kind of like a word and so like the more questions you ask AI and the more it spits out more data

it costs money and so they're undercharging for this product right now to get everybody to sign up

charging 20 bucks a month you know Netflix costs more money and does a lot less for me than AI

you know you've talked about this you've talked about like you know Grock and Claude and

Glock and it doesn't matter the other ones we talk about they're not going to stay cheap forever

right so right now I'm paying 30 bucks a month for co-pilot now I know that pilot is a is the

least good of all it's the least but it does a good job for things like you know grammar check

this you know rewrite this sentence right make sure this email looks good look like cotton paste

right yeah right or look up look up you know look up find information on this client's information

in my work aside you know that that's all right in there but do we think that the

differential between pricing where you have AI models and the AI companies that are the

open quote unquote open source right and and and the for the good of mankind versus the business

based ones you know those two competing forces these days which everybody's starting to move much

more towards the other side forget about the good of mankind right is this going to start costing

us a lot more um I don't think it's going to be right away but yeah for sure and people will pay

a lot more but you have to look at it like as a cost benefit you know like how much of my willing

to spend to get huge efficiencies in my business and you know not have to hire employees that we

were going to hire so if you just don't hire one employee because of AI let's say that's saving

you a hundred grand a year right there so like wouldn't you pay two thousand dollars a month for

cloth you know yeah and people will right and that's what's going to be you know and so companies

will pay a lot more than individuals and I think there'll be free versions of these things obviously

to get would that'll be like ad supported you know and then they'll be like the $30 or $50

or how how many like tokens you're really using you know so it'll be based off usage because

it's kind of like when the internet started in a well used to charge you know 29 99 a month you

know and so that they needed to do that and when a well said okay we're not going to charge

anymore it was down you know like the demand I never stood that I never stood that whole thing

the idea was to get everybody on the internet like it was just get everybody on the internet so

if we do like as soon as we could afford to like just not charge it was better to get scale an

AOL was the biggest remember time-order of all people of course you know of course and so I was

there 99 top of the market AOL time-order you know that's why I was like don't buy time-order

Netflix please don't it's it's like a curse you know so when it comes to this AI jobs

cannibalism if you will to a point there's been a lot of discussion I've heard it's almost I

I've been saying that it's it's he who protest too much this whole idea on every out of everybody's

mouth that no no no no we're not building this to replace employees but meanwhile meanwhile

it seems like the it's happening you know look what happened with no no no we are building

this to replace employees or not hire them in the first place right isn't that the truth what

is a bullshit the question is which employees right and that's where I think a lot of people are

making a whole big deal about the fact that this is about efficiency see what I'm telling my team

is you better learn this I tweeted this the other day I direct all members of my team to work

on Claude immediately I don't care what you do just get on it you know and like the idea is we

can become super advisors by having AI agents helping us do all of our work and we do a lot of

like behind the scenes work let's say building financial plan and now with AI we'll be able to

we're already we've already built platforms on Claude that are super awesome right out like so

we're just trying to figure out how to deploy this across the company because that like you literally

can't even share the documents and or save data you know so so we've got like templates that we

built that are amazing already and better than the stuff that these companies that charges $10,000

a month for they we don't need to pay anymore so when you're talking about employees well certainly

if you're in what I call real work like construction electrical putting in you know electrical

infrastructure AI can't do that right when you're mechanical mechanical yeah and you're thinking

about like a lot of jobs are you physically have to exist to do those jobs right and then you have

this whole what I so this is what I was saying the other day the the the the generation that's

graduated from college over the last decade their degrees are worth substantially less than ours

okay so the education system has gone down the the gutter of tube of shit okay and what it's

become is some sort of consensus building woke weird thing where you don't even learn the history

that's actually the history anymore like it's the least prepared college educated people that have

ever been produced by the colleges let's say and so now they're graduating and there are all

these entitled kids who think that Facebook is everything or Instagram and that they spend half

their day wasted you know high just like playing on their social media's and then they go get a job

which is basically like how can I fuck around as much as possible and look like I'm working and then

they post this stuff online which is even funnier and those are the people losing their jobs and they

will never get jobs again because you know if you're not if you don't really have a skill you're

screwed because of AI so all these kind of cushy jobs at meta look at what happened at block the other

day they go well block not doing well you know blocks not doing well so maybe it was just layoffs

they go that's absolutely true they have literally thousands of people who do nothing there you know

and how did it get that way because we just hire and we hire and we hire and companies get big

and they don't even realize that half the people don't actually do anything every day and so it's

going to be a tough time for college educated younger people who don't actually have real skill sets

and actually didn't really learn anything of value in college. This is the story that I've always

had that if you don't know how to add and subtract multiply and divide and understand the basis how

you can actually use that powerful excel to its fullest you know if you don't understand

what an average difference between a median mean or whatever pick whatever how about if you don't

understand why we're fighting and I ran right now you should be like going back to school right

well you missed history like you just missed history. Exactly. You know it's a lot of talk about

that. Let's talk about it. You've been pretty vocal about the young going yeah yeah I'm very

excited. You're you see this market de-sabilization energy spike. I like it. It's good. You like it

what part of it? I love it. You like it. I want to buy stocks. I want to buy stocks because when this

is over like the world has changed so much for the better. There is nothing more concerning

to our future than a nuclear armed Iran. Right. I agree. And you know honestly it's not an

opinion. It's just a fact like you know what I'm saying like I'm not trying to say this like

I'm just saying that if they had a nuclear weapon right now they would be using it. That's

why we cannot let this happen. And we played this game with them for like 20 plus years while they've

attacked us and terrorized us and and and light light. I mean it's just a million things. They played

this game and they were building a weapon. Okay. I don't care what kind of propaganda nonsense

you're reading online. They're building weapons. They have the ability to an highly enriched

uranium and they just don't give a crap about the West and they are trying to arm up to destroy

our civilization. That's that's a reality. Okay. Then Ukraine war starts and they're the first

people to help Russia massacre our Ukrainian brothers and sisters left and right. Okay. And so

you know then he who do you think was behind October 7th? So the the Arab world wants to like

end all this nonsense and you know Israel and Saudi Arabia start talking and then they unleashed

this Hamas attack on Israel which just changed everything. You know and whether I ran realized it

when they unleashed October 7th that it was going to be there undoing I'm sure they did not think

that in the end Netanyahu and the Jews would destroy them. They probably didn't they did the old

Sunsu era of underestimating their enemy of 5,000 years on forum nonetheless. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.

They didn't even read the story of forum. Okay. Which is about them. Yeah. Okay. It's amazing.

So today we we actually sunk a ship with a torpedo and an Iranian Navy vessel. I was like

cheering. We they have no Navy. They have no Air Force and and we are just systematically taking

apart their entire military apparatus that have killed tens and tens and thousands of their own people

in the most harsh and horrible ways. So how is the world not a better place today than it was two

weeks ago? Yeah. I want to also talk about though the traditional war footing when it comes to

market for a second because there are. Yeah. I think there's three phases give it take. I mean,

we could probably talk about this and argue about this. But there's this you know the initial right

the shock. This is why things done on the weekend. So they let it sink in a little bit right. This

is purposeful. Give a couple of days Sunday night. Sunday night at about 558 would be very nice

Eastern time right before futures open. And you know you get that shock. Then you get that kind

of adjustment. This is the old frog boiling in a pot. Right. Then you get this normalization

that okay, we're in a war. We've been in a war forever. Who cares over there? The only time

it really gets crazy is if I got a bomb blowing up on my doorstep. Right. It's over there. Which is

next by the way, you know, well here in LA. I'm closer. No, I mean, I'm not kidding. I'm not

kidding. You know, the Persian community here in LA is so happy. I've never seen anything like it.

They're dancing in the streets and I'm telling you it's a risk that they're going to attack us

here in Los Angeles between the Jewish community, the Iranian Jewish community and the Persian community

that's just everybody here. LA is so happy right now. I can't even tell you. You know what I mean?

And like everybody. So we're a target. So it's kind of what I told my kids. You know, I gave my

kid, I don't let him have the phone, you know, and I gave him like he's 13. I gave him the phone.

I said, listen, it shit goes down. I want you having the phone because shit's going to go down.

Just when they get desperate enough, they will attack. And so I think Americans need to not be

complacent at this period of time. We are at war and many of the young people today don't remember

the wars that we've been fighting for the last 55 years that I've been alive. And so, you know,

I'm prepared. You got to, you know, Americans need to watch out for each other right now. We got

to be smart. Let's talk about though. What mistakes people make when wars happen when it comes to

markets. Like we saw for example, you know, the first time, right? Yeah, the panic they get

upset because we don't know. There's a lot of uncertainty, isn't that? Is this just the same

uncertainty curve as any uncertainty curve, tariff uncertainty, new political thing? You know,

this with Trump, there's uncertainties that you can't quantify, which I think market participants

don't like. But if you would have told me that the market really isn't down from all this,

I would have said zero chance. You know, like Monday morning, I had my like combat gear on,

you know, ready to deal with clients and panic mode. You know what I mean? So I've done this

pony. You know, that's why people pay me. I'm the guy you want in your bunker. You know what I

mean? When the markets are getting killed, I've been there, done that. I'll get you through it.

So I, you know, my wife just doesn't understand these things. She doesn't pay attention to the news

and stuff. And she's trying to act like everything's normal. I looked at her, said, we're,

we just started a war. Okay. In my business, that means we're included, you know. And so like,

I'm not the same today as I was yesterday. Like I have to deal with some potentially really

difficult things right now. So please be supportive. And so, you know, and just understand the stress

I'm under because I, I warn my family because my job most of the time is not too bad. But these

kind of times can be tough. But when you're surprised, you were surprised. I'm surprised. I,

you know, I think the market should be down 5%, you know, maybe 10, right? But when I thought from a,

like a rational perspective of like, what are, what is the potential outcomes and how good or bad

are they? I was like, dude, we got them all the first night, okay? So when I started extrapolating

out six months from now, to me, there's the potential that this could be one of the greatest

paradigm shifts in modern American history. Like eliminating the Iranian regime threat,

which ultimately neuters the Russian regime threat, maybe ends the Ukrainian war. And oh my

God, this would be wildly bullish, wildly bullish. And so that's why I'm saying, if it goes down,

I'm a buyer hardcore because I, I think we're going to win this war. I think Iran is just, you

know, I think they're done. I think the people want to be free. And, and if we can give them a window

to somehow take over their country, it'll be messy. And it'll be messy for a long time. But there's

an opportunity to re, rejigger the world into a much better world order for everybody. And like,

the Middle East could become one of the wealthiest training areas in the world. And I, I, I,

I ventured to guess that the Persian community, if they come back to their country and rebuild it,

will build an amazing country. I want to, so I'm hopeful. Yeah, let's pivot to another

hole full area. Let's talk about SpaceX X AI. We'll talk about. Yeah. I mean, I knew that he

was going to start combining those things. That was like, I'm glad. I got out of my Twitter

investment. And then now I own SpaceX. That's the best outcome I could have asked for. Yep.

So because I got screwed. Well, but the, I listen, I think the valuation of, well, what is it now?

When he went, when Twitter got folded into X AI, the number that came up was like,

this pie in the sky number of what Twitter was worth. Let's be honest. But, you know,

let's start it with 44 billion for Twitter, right? Then they merged it with X AI and they said

it was 110 billion. Right. Then they merged it with SpaceX. And they said it was worth 250

billion. Right. And then what he says worth now. Now they're saying it's worth more. I know

that. It's just some crazy number. So yeah, you, you were very against, uh, musk, dabbling in his

governmental duties of the Doge gets hold on all that. And you're right. That worked out well,

didn't it? Yeah, that was that, that whole thing was ridiculous. I mean, it was, it was a game.

And Chrissy Nome is flying around on a private jet with her, with her own bed and sleeping with

the special government employee and giving her friends $150 million dollar contract right under

Elon's nose. Yep. You got to love that. The whole thing was, was bad. So, uh, where are you on?

Do you, are you? First of all, do you think that Tesla's going to become another division of

X eventually of X AI? Yeah, SpaceX. What if you want to call it at that point? It'll be part of

X. X will be the company. And it'll be multiple verticals of the future, basically. And, and at

this point, now, I think that Elon's a little bit frustrated because he wanted to get this thing out

public. And now we got a war. It's very hard to take companies public, you know, during conflict.

And so it makes a lot of sense for Tesla and SpaceX to merge. They're basically worth the

same amount of money. And then it's like they could go public through this reverse merger process

kind of thing. And if they do that, does he then get the benefit of the valuation of Benchmark

to give him the $3 trillion that he was now having in his new contract? Or is that something different?

I don't know. You know, I don't know how that would affect the, the goals that were set for

the new contract. And my assumption is that goals are goals. And so you still have to achieve those

goals to achieve the, the pay. You know, at this point, I don't know how many goals they're going

to achieve. So, you know, I don't know. You know, I've never, I was just actually at the Tesla

dealer taking my car in. And there's cars everywhere. And these people are working their butts off.

And Tesla makes great vehicles. And they pretty much can drive themselves. And I just think that

moving away from the vehicle sales business is a death blow to Tesla.

Their vehicle sales stink. It stinks because they don't want to sell. They don't care.

Well, like Elon's not trying to sell cars. He is basically saying, you're going to take my cabs.

And we're going to build these robots. And, and, and we'll sell cars too. But I don't care.

I'm going to end the Model S. The best car. Every time I go over the Tesla,

I can't believe that. That's the only Tesla I would buy by the way.

It's the best car they may. Yeah. The Model S plaid with full self driving is the best vehicle

that's ever been made. And they discontinued it. And over this fluffy lie that putting a robot

line in Fremont makes any sense at all. Because we all know if you've ever been to Fremont,

it does. You're not putting a robot line there. It's a mess over there. Okay. Yeah. So,

so then the valuation of where Tesla is and the price it is in the market currently

is really a factor. Not of the anything to do with Tesla, really. It's just a hope for

roll up into the future. When I talk to my, my Tesla clients that won't sell their shares.

And I'm and you know, I approach it very delicately because they love Elon and Tesla. And I say,

look, you know, what do you think of the Model S being discontinued? And you know, they have

this big dissonance that they're having a trouble with. But what they've bought into is that this

future abundance with robots and cabs is the future of Tesla. And they're fine. They don't care

about selling cars anymore. That's what I'm saying. They just don't care about selling cars. And

that is, you know, you have a $100 billion revenue business that was doing $15 billion a year in

profit and probably worth, you know, three to 400 billion, right? And they're going to abandon it.

So I don't know what what happens. But I know nobody's buying Tesla's right now. So when you look

at what they're trying to do, the the optimist ambitions and this whole issue with, you know,

I don't know whether it's a scene from from sleeper. I keep envisioning this, this scene from

sleeper with the robot, you know, Woody Allen with his little orb. Yeah. And the, I mean,

I just go straight to like Robo cop. Yeah. Robo cop. It's that too. And that was LA. That was an LA.

Yeah. And and what where are the limit? Where do you see the limitations, the boundaries,

the potential for adoption for this whole thing? And are we ready for this?

You know, first of all, getting a robot to work is really hard and to work for a long time.

You know, so let's be real. We've got some time here. Yeah. Before, you know, I use the example

all the time of my hands, you know, because I'm a guitar player, you know, the complexity of your

hands and calluses and playing a musical instrument and the dexterity that humans have developed over

millions of years of evolution is not that easy for them to build. And Elon, I'll tell you that

himself. And, and then you got eyes and you got feet. So it turns out eyes, feet, and hands make

humans super unique as animals. So we're fundamentally we're animals and animals adapt to millions of

years of different challenges and the animals that don't adapt die and the stronger ones survive.

And we've evolved over millions of years. And and most species, if you drop a human into Africa,

right now, humans would get eaten very quickly and we're not adept to surviving the wild anymore.

We're domesticated animals now like a cat. And so when you think about this idea that we're

going to just replace ourselves with these metal robots that think and need power. And you look at

some of the incredible feats that humans do on a day-to-day basis like that dude who just climbed

that building. Oh, okay. And you know, don't underestimate the humans is what I say. Right. So

though, I'll bet on the humans over the robots for a long time. But now, because of what I'm

reading in the military circles, what I actually believe is Tesla will be a military contractor.

That's interesting. And that's interesting. But both on the AI side and the robotic side, space X

Tesla robotics, AI, all of it. He always, he's building an army. He's building the US army.

But isn't that what the game you always played was to go after the highly profitable and very squishy

government budgets? Or there's that. I mean, Elon's been doing that since he started. And then

there's the Iron Man model that he kind of buys into you that I'm creating technologies to

protect America from its adversaries. And there's no question that Starlink has been a major factor

in the conflicts that we're seeing today. And so for the first time in history where we launched

a drone attack using Starlink antennas in the back of the drones that we can now drive directly

to the target from anywhere in the world, this is a game changer technology when it comes to the

modern combat and warfare that we're seeing in the battlefield today. And then when you extrapolate

out robotics and what Tesla is building and cyber trucks and all of a sudden you've got an army

of drones, robots and and and autonomous vehicles that could be extremely effective against our

adversaries. So so I think that argument is probably a better argument than any human wanting

some stupid metal robot in their house. I would agree with that. I mean, you know, I mean, obviously

there's a long as you said a long way now. What about the the cyber cab or the robot attack? Which

is it? Is it cyber cab or robot tax? I call them all robot taxis, you know, because certainly

Tesla's not the only one. And I'm a Waymo user. And you know, one of the advantages you get about

living in Santa Monica is you see all the technologies before everybody else. And you see them compete.

And that's how we found Tesla was because they were here in Santa Monica. And so the fact that

robot taxis aren't even operating in Santa Monica currently just shows you how behind they are.

Right. Because you know, they're operating in San Francisco supposedly and basically Austin.

But they're not robot taxis. They're driven by drivers on full self driving essentially. So it's

no different than an Uber driver who uses full self driving. You see what I'm saying? Right. And so

so the promises have become a joke at this point because by the end of the year the the people

were supposed to be out of the cars. They're not out of the cars. And there's a reason why they're

not out of the cars because the cars will kill people. And so we need the safety drivers. And I use

full self driving, you know, extensively all the time. I think that the software is better than

it's ever been. I think it works really, really well. I just went to San Diego and back. And I had

to disengage several times in that trip for safety reasons. And a lot of that had to do with things

that are super random that just happen. Like there was a motorcycle accident in the middle of the

freeway that we drove right up on. Cars were like all over the place. People were out in the freeway

trying to help this guy who was hurt. You know, it was a it was a tough driving situation.

Well, humans can communicate with each other in the car. This is another thing that, you know,

cabs can't do with robots. You know, it's like you wave at the person, you look at them,

so you don't hit each other. You know what I mean? Yeah, yeah. Or you see what they're looking?

You see what they're looking? Well, we had to navigate around all this mess, you know. And

and so, you know, fortunately, I was right one of the first person because the traffic,

you know, was going to be a nightmare for the rest of the day. But and I almost had to stop to help

these people, but there was already somebody doing that. So, but that said, self-driving didn't

know what to do. You know what I'm saying? And so you just have to disengage, you know. And so

there's a lot of scenarios now that happen in L.A. driving that are non-quantifiable because

it's L.A. And so this is what's made it very, very hard for full self-driving to work. Now,

Waymo's solution, which turned out to work, is just put like tons of sensors everywhere,

so that we can really measure everything. And in the cars don't look as good, but they work,

and they're safe because we know everything around us how far it is, how fast it's going,

and we're safe. So, you know, I think there's something to Tesla just like putting some sensors on

the car and fixing their problem and moving on. But, you know, they're just too stubborn.

Let's talk about this getting me off of the edge of the, of the ledge here and talk about

this whole idea where these, we've seen these hyperscalers, right? We've seen Amazon and alphabet,

Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia. Well, that's not hyperscalers, but Nvidia. All these guys spending

in your lifetime, you've never, I'm telling you, and you agree with me, you've never seen spend

like this. The spend is absurd. The numbers are absurd. They dwarf any, I think any stimulus

package that has ever been given out by a government over time. Oh, come on. You know, Biden

was sending checks to everybody. Everybody has a trillion dollars. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You know, the changing the, this, this, this government's going to be

changing the San Andreas fault name. Did you know that? That's going to be to what the Biden's fault?

Yeah. So I felt for that joke. Okay. Sorry. You got me, but that was fun. So this whole spend

right into that, this whole, this whole spend that we've been hearing about. And the numbers

just go on and on. And right, you're telling me that when Nvidia gives money to open AI and open AI,

then turns around and buys buys and video chips and video chips or Microsoft to open AI,

open AI buys cloud service blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. This is not some kind of weird

deal where brilliantly you take money off your balance sheet and you turn it into income. And then

you use your EPS and then your stock goes up. This is like what everybody does. This is what everybody

does. This is profound. Okay. No, it's, it's, it's common in business. So now you got to share the

wealth, you know, like Nvidia can't just make $43 billion in a quarter and just like

distribute it to their shareholders. Like they have customers that are spending all this money

and they want to own a piece of all these people. And if they're going to spend the money with them

anyways, why not put, give some of it back to these guys and own a piece of all of it.

Well, that's what I mean. But when you get a piece of it and you get like a deal with AMD, right?

Where meta deploy AMD is going to deploy six gigabytes of this GPUs over time, blah, blah,

they can get this money. They're going to pay for it. And then they're going to get 10% of AMD meta.

You may like that as a meta shareholder because they basically just got free shares of AMD. But

what the hell? Well, that's what AMD has to do to get business because they're inferior to

Nvidia. And so it gave way 10% of their company. Yeah. I wouldn't have done that. You know, like,

but that's like we've done the analysis comparing an AMD chip to Nvidia. It's like day and night.

So, you know, they're not competitive. They've never been competitive with Nvidia.

They've always been a second to your chip company. And if I want to build GPUs with them,

I'm accepting a lesser product essentially. And so why would you do that? So everybody's

trying to spread the wealth and do all this stuff. But I think, you know, if you look at a company

like CoreWeave, which is probably like the epicenter of where people don't like it, where it's like

people invest in CoreWeave. CoreWeave turns around buys the chips. Then they build a data center

and then they rent it out basically the same people, right? But, you know, we have to understand

it's actually quite smart. I'll give you an example of my company. When we were starting,

we needed money. And we, you know, talked to LPL. We moved our business there. And we said,

hey, look, you know, and they said, look, we have a forgivable loan program. We'll give you

XYZ if you guys do XYZ. Now, it's smart for them to give us money because we've grown to be 20 times

bigger things with their help. It helps. And so you can say, oh, they're just giving money to the same

RIs that come back and pay them. Well, that's true. But it's also now or 20 times bigger. So,

it's a huge win for them. Whatever they gave us, they're making back way more. You know what I mean?

Yeah, yeah. And so I think that's part of the calculus. It's like, if we invest in this ecosystem

and we build it, like in these companies succeed, what Nvidia's business is going to look like in 10

years will be way more than if they just are selfish and they keep all the money for themselves

and pay it all to shareholders and pay dividends and do all this shit. You know, all these companies

might struggle a lot more. And then they have less better customers in the future. You know,

so it's smart business. You see it all over the place. Almost every industry does this where

they try to support the businesses that will help them get more business down the line.

And so, but does it increase in market cap that was based on some of these things

immediately makes sense. It took years. Well, if you want sense, if you want sense, you do not trade

the stock market. Okay. You trade in the stock market because you know that there isn't sense

in certain areas and there's opportunity for you to make money. So there's opportunity for

you to lose money to see what I'm saying. And so nobody forces you to buy core weave.

You know what I mean? And I looked at core weave three or four times and I actually still think it's

a good company, but I don't own it because I don't like the economics of investing. Let's say

$50 billion into Nvidia technology today to build data centers. Then I've got to

depreciate over let's say six to 10 years and then I have to get all this revenue into the future.

Which I'm sure they'll get, but it's so uncertain. It's like how do you draw out the numbers?

You know, and so that's my issue with core weave. How much business are they going to get in the future?

I don't know. It could be tons. You know, I don't know. I know the demand is off the charts, but like,

do I want older chips or do I want to like diversify into different layers of different chips?

You know, like I don't know. So there's a lot of people doing a lot of things and some of it's

not going to work for sure. But I think Zuckerberg said I would rather over invest. I would rather

lose money on some of this than not be in the game because the game's over already. You get that,

right? Like, these are household names now. Gemini, quad, you know, chat. Like my kids talk about chat,

you know, like, you see what I'm saying? Well, they didn't do this. But what's interesting, Ross,

we don't know who's actually come out. One of the things I wanted to mention is that they won

already. It's over already. Open AI has pledged so much money. There's so many companies on the

come. That one in particular, right? Well, Sam Altman's a little bit crazy. Yeah. Yeah.

And the question is, are they going to be the winner in five years now, two years now,

10 years now, whatever the number is when the, when the, when the rooster comes to crow and,

and, and, and has to pay up. Well, remember who started the internet. We started this,

this podcast. I was talking about AOL, right? Where's AOL today? Yep. It's, I still use it,

actually. Yep. You do you? For what? I have my email. I have an email, AOL address, and I keep

it because it makes me happy because it's, I was the first person on the internet. I was, I was,

you know, I was like, Al Gore. You and Al Gore together, huh? E-mailing back at Al Gore. Yeah.

I have the first AOL address, you know, like, I, I take pride in my AOL, you know, that said,

AOL is not the leader in the internet today. Yeah. Yeah. So it will open AI, be the leader of AI

in like 30 years. I have no idea. And, and if you are an investor, it would probably be a mistake

not to invest in these companies right now. You know, like, we don't know who's going to win.

I'm a big investor in Google. I think Google wins here. You know, I'm an investor in Microsoft.

I think they win here. You know, I, I love that Google owns part of Anthropic. I would invest

in Anthropic. I would invest in Open AI. Yeah. I'm saying like Microsoft and then you got Amazon too,

of course, opening right now. Do I want to buy Open AI at 680 billion? No. I don't. But like,

it doesn't change that it's not a good company. You know, but like, as I said, I think the

hyperscalers have already won. Like, if I want to be a startup AI, large language model and

compete against any of these models, like, how much money do I have to invest? Like hundreds of

billions. So the game's over. And so these companies knew that if they didn't go all in, you know,

they had good, they had good cards. If they didn't go all in, there's very potential

possibility that a third party that they don't know could have come and eaten their lunch. Yeah.

And so, and so this is the cost of the moat. It's the cost of the moat is 150 billion a year. And,

you know, I think they're smart. I think they're smart. I think that

the way the world will look five years from now is extremely different than what any of us can

imagine. Well, that's pretty cool. Let me, let me ask you this on the end. I wish I could tell you

what that is. Well, I'm going to ask you something is a little bit shorter term as a closing question.

And recognizing that we said last week, we would know what's happened this week. This week,

we're not going to know what happens next week. But six months from now, what will investors wish

they had been paying more attention to today? Hmm. I mean, is it, is it, I'm going to beat around

a few things, the price of fuel, maybe the fact that we have a new, yeah, the fact that the fed

is a new feds coming in. And that's going to be very theoretically, I don't know. Is it, I don't

know if they're going to be dovish? Is it the, is it the Nvidia comment from a couple days ago

about not spending any more on open AI? Is it, oh, how about this private credit?

Well, you know, it's funny because they do a lot of these shows and I get asked a lot of the

same questions. So, you know, private credit is just junk bonds that rich people bought that

sock and they lose money. And that's that, you know, it's not going to, it's not going to,

it's not going to infect the market because people in the market don't own it. It's just rich people.

So rich people like losing money on high fee products. And I'm all for it, you know,

if that's what they want to do, they can just call me and I tell them not to buy it. You know what I

mean? Well, you've been trying to get some clients out of it that we adopted some stuff for.

Yeah, it's hard. It's hard to get out of the stuff. That's why we don't sell it to people

because my theory is how, you know, I start with like, how do I get my money back? You know,

when you, when the private credit guys come and the VC guys and the hedge fund guys come in and

pitch me, I'm always like, well, how do I get my money back? And they're like, oh, nobody ever

gets their money back. You know, it's like, well, and Ross, why do they always come in with two people

in the office? Well, they always come with two people. Right. Am I right? It's always two. No,

you're totally right. And and and and I always pose the same question to them. You know, we manage

the client. It's a lot of effort to get the client, manage the client, get their assets under

management, make them happy, service the client, and then they come to us with a two and 20 product.

Yeah. And they go, well, I'm charging 75 basis points. Yep. And you want me to pay you two and

20 to buy a bunch of junk bonds. Right. You know, and it's like, no, why should you make 4% off my

clients? You know, so you, you're buying garbage at 12% and you're paying them eight and nine.

You know what I mean? It's like a recycling machine. It's like, it's like, it's like a

before recycling machine. So we don't do that here at GK. You know, we just don't do it. You know,

every year, like even this year, all these guys come in and then, you know, guys in my firm

are like, they see all this stuff and they're like, shouldn't we be offering all this stuff?

Ross, why are you so stubborn? And I said, you know why? Because when these things go bad,

oh yeah, everybody hates you. And so I've, I've protected you multiple times through multiple

cycles of garbage products that are pitched to us because I'm fortunately old enough to have seen

many cycles of garbage products being pitched, including ones that cause the financial crisis

for that matter. It's funny because private credit always seemed to me to be the crap that

already nobody wanted to buy that's being bought out by the people that ready. And if anything ever,

if everything's fine, okay, it all goes good because they don't market. They just kind of let

us see rates go down or rates go down or something like that. Then they can market whoever they

want. Then they don't have to remark it until some other deal and they can do side pocketing.

And then in the end though, those are the ones that are going to have the worst problem because

the liquidity issues and they have, they have liquidity issues is why we have liquidity issues,

right? To begin with, right. And like, if I, if I give you $1,000 as alone and you're going to pay me

10%, you know, it's not bad credit if you just pay me back. So, you know, what I was saying the

other day is that if you're looking to, you know, deploy capital, let's say $50 million into

private credit, you know, that's probably pretty easy to do and you could hold out for good companies.

But if you're looking to deploy a billion dollars, you start to have to go down the, to the bottom

of the barrel here to find investments or else you don't get paid. You know, so so much money

goes into the sector, but how many high quality private companies really exist, you know? And private

companies are really tough to invest it. You know, you can't get your money out easy. And,

you know, what's your exit strategy is them going public or, or are borrowing from somebody else

to pay you back, I guess, right? Right, right. So, so, you know, there's a lot of people that don't

want to do the hard work. We do a GK like getting and managing clients and they rather just sell

products to our clients. And that's why we don't let them in is because it's like you lose the money.

I'm the one that has the deal with it. You know, and I lose the client and you still got paid

the whole way, right? You know, right? Right. So, so we don't have that here. It's not a problem for

me. And as I tell most people, I love liquidity. You know, like I, I learned this lesson. I mean,

it's like how old do you have to be before you just learn lessons and and one lesson that is

constant is when things go bad, liquidity is a massive premium. You know what I mean? It's like,

it's great to have liquidity because you can actually take action when things get bad. Like,

you can now buy this private credit at 15 cents on the dollar. And when things go bad, it's not

like let's do a redo. Let's have a second chance. Oh, maybe let me, let me go backwards a minute.

You're in it. You're in it. That's right. Once you're in the quick stand, you can't get out.

Hard to tell clients, you know, they wrote a $100,000 check for blue owl fun seven. Yep.

And then you say it's all gone. Thank you. But it's really hard to do that. And I'm glad I've never

had to do that. I agree. I agree. Ross Gerber Gerber, Kawasaki, always a pleasure to have you on the show.

Appreciate you. We're going to have all the information on how to get in touch with you on the

discipline investor.com episode notes for number 963. Thanks, buddy. Wow. Yeah. Thank you. Thanks for

having me. Yeah. That's gonna wrap up this episode of the discipline investor podcast.

That was awesome. I mean, Ross Gerber, we seem to hit it off really well. And I really enjoyed

that conversation. So if you did to send me a note, drop me a line. Go over to the discipline

investor.com. Click on the ask Andrew button. The contact does find somewhere something to click.

Send me a note. Tell me what you think. I appreciate all the, all the good feedback. I'll take

the bad feedback and read it, but then probably toss it. But nonetheless, I like your feedback.

Anyway, you want to send it. Thanks for joining me this week and every week. Next week coming up,

we got a great guest. We got Thomas Petrify. He is the founder. He is the guy that created.

He is the current one in charge of interactive brokers and quite a history and something that I'm

going to enjoy. I've never really had the opportunity to speak with him before, but this is going to

be a great episode. Make sure to be there next week when we bring him on. Thanks for joining me this

week and every week. I'll see you again real soon. This podcast is intended for informational purposes

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