Temper: Patriots Free Agency Expectations–Eliot Wolf & Mike Vrabel Calculated

If you are among Pats fans who expect a spending spree this off season, it's my advice that

you temper those expectations.

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latest intel on plans for tight end safety and more.

In the second segment, we break down all the rumors about the Pats involvement in the

free agent edge market and whether or not Caleb on chase on a reunion is seen as likely.

But first, Mike Vrable, Elliott Wolfe and several reports are stressing one word to

all of you this off season.

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Usually when a team gets to the Super Bowl and they lose that Super Bowl, it brings an

unbelievable amount of urgency that off season.

The question always is, what do we need to push this thing over the top?

But all of the intel, all of the reporting over the past couple of days tells us the patriots

are not, they are not going to get crazy aggressive.

Aaron Gregian, Mark Daniels of Mass Live, they wrote, after spending over $100 million

in free agency last season, the patriots are not expected to make the same big free agent

splash this off season.

They'll still target several veterans and build depth.

But the team is hoping for another strong draft class.

We heard from Elliott Wolfe.

We heard from Mike Vrable during the week of the combine last week.

Everybody, everybody that asked those two gentlemen questions about, are you in a rebuild?

What part of the process are you in the middle of here when we talk about this off season?

Both Wolfe and Vrable continue to highlight the idea of building the program, not rebuilding,

but building the program.

Mike Reese Sunday morning ESPN.com wrote, while they will always listen to trade possibilities

for big name stars, they believe would help the team.

They don't view themselves as the proverbial, quote, one player away, unquote, from a return

trip to the Super Bowl, the possibility of acquiring the likes of AJ Brown, Max Crosby

or someone of that ilk is tantalizing.

It seemed clear from the combine that the only way the patriots would be involved in those

hypothetical options is if the price is lower than last year's deal from Micah Parsons.

Micah Parsons went for two first round picks and Kenny Clark, if you don't remember.

First things first here, everything I just read to you and everything that Vrable and Wolfe

said during combine week does not preclude them from a free agent splash.

Nothing that I just read.

There's a difference between making a splash and spending upwards of 100 million dollars

in a single off season.

I'm not going to expect the patriots to spend a hundred million dollars in free agency,

but I also don't think we're going to see a bunch of guys getting one year, five million

dollar deals.

I do think the patriots will make a splash.

Now whether that's going to be free agency and go out and sign somebody like a Jalen

Phillips or if it's going to be a trade, but as far as spending the 100 million dollars

in making a splash, the fact is when you look at the free agency market year in and year

out at this point, there are not many Milton Williams is available to you.

Teams do a better job of extending their young players.

It's very unusual to find a player like Milton Williams in his mid 20s, just about to walk

into his prime after having an incredible impact on that defensive line and Philly, especially

in the Super Bowl.

You don't usually find guys in the market that are like that.

Milton Williams was available because Philadelphia had a bunch of dudes on their defensive line.

And they need to sign a number of those dudes.

That's why he was available.

It was an embarrassment of riches for the Eagles and they weren't going to sign every

single solitary interior defensive lineman on their roster.

That would be ridiculous.

Look at what's happening with Indy and Alec Pierce.

All signs are that the cults are going to keep Alec Pierce, whether it's a transition

tag, a franchise tag, a straight up extension.

All the reporting is saying that Alec Pierce is going to stay in Indy and that is usually

the case when you look at some of these guys that are top free agents and they're about

to hit the market, but they never truly get their Kyle pits with the Falcons is another

example of that.

And as I said, the idea of not spending a hundred million dollars in the off season doesn't

preclude a free agent splash.

It also does not preclude a splash trade.

There's a difference between trading two ones versus trading a single first round pick.

There's a difference between trading two first round picks, a second round versus a second

round pick and maybe, you know, a day three pick next year.

There are differences, right?

Just like there's a difference between making a splash signing and spending a hundred million.

There's a difference between trading all of your assets to first round picks for somebody

like Max Crosby or trying to find a middle ground, a gray area and say, hey, we'll give

you the first round pick, but we're not going to give you two first round picks.

I would also just say it's, it's pretty obvious that the Patriots are absolutely interested

and intrigued by adding a big name player.

The reported interest in AJ Brown, they are interested in brown.

Brown would certainly be a splash if you made that trade.

Reportedly they have interest in Jalen Phillips.

Again, if you signed a Jalen Phillips, that's an absolute splash via free agency.

So if you're, if you're not having these types of conversations, then I would say, well,

it's obvious the Patriots, they're not looking for a splash, get ready for a bunch of cheap

free agent signings, walk into the draft and they get who they get in that draft.

But you are not having these types of conversations.

You are not even entertaining the idea of acquiring an AJ Brown.

If you were shutting all the doors to a splash.

So it's not about a splash.

It's about how many splashes it's not about spending money in free agency.

It's about how many big ticket items are you actually going to sign in free agency?

It's not about being aggressive and trying to make a trade.

It's not wanting to spend two first round picks to make a trade.

And this goes back to the very beginning of this off season.

And I've been saying this consistently over the past few weeks.

The Patriots off season should be aggressive, but not reckless.

I said that right after the Super Bowl and I stand by that as we begin the month of

March, as we are a week away from free agency.

The Patriots should be aggressive, but not reckless.

And that is exactly how they are reportedly approaching this off season.

Yes, patience, striking when they can not afraid to make a splash move, but also understanding

where there's football team is that they're still building this thing out.

And you don't want to be crazy aggressive.

Give up assets that you will regret down the road because you mistakenly thought you

were that one piece away.

So I do think we will see a splash, whether that's trade free agent.

I don't know.

I do think we will see a splash, but I don't think this team is going to go bananas and trade

all the assets, trade all the picks, spend all the money.

And I think that's actually the right way to go aggressive, not reckless.

The very latest on Max Crosby in the past search for edge help coming up next.

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comments on this offseason Mike variable Elliott wolf preaching patience to patriots fans

are you buying into that?

I'm buying into being aggressive and not reckless and I think that's going to be the plan.

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The next goal as we get ready for free agency.

It has been universally reported that the patriots number one priority this off season is

at defensive edge and I would agree with that.

And there was a lot of intel over the weekend about the edge position and we start with

the guy who I think would be the home run swing and I think many of you would feel the same

way.

And that's Max Crosby.

If you acquired Max Crosby that is taking a home run hack Andrew Callahan Doug guide

of the herald wrote the following are the Raiders actually willing to play ball.

That is the question on the minds of patriots decision makers leak sources don't believe

the Raiders are serious about trading Crosby.

One team source believes a first round pick and other lesser assets, including one of the

patriots to fourth round picks would be fair compensation.

So that's the herald ESPN's Jeremy Fowler on Sunday wrote it's somewhat quiet on the

Crosby front.

This is a layered discussion because a team source said a few weeks ago that Crosby's

chances of returning were relatively small, but he does not plan to request a trade Crosby

probably would not go on or a Parsons like trade package, which again was two firsts

in Kenny Clark.

Some teams I've spoken to wrote Fowler to believe believe he will remain with the Raiders.

For now added an executive from an NFC team, quote, I think the price is too high.

I'm not sure they really want to move him at this point, but that could change unquote

at least a dozen teams have expressed cursory to strong interest in recent weeks.

So if the patriots are looking at this and saying to themselves, a first round pick and

quote unquote, lesser assets is enough.

And one of those lesser assets would be one of the fourth round picks they have in this

year's draft as they have two of those.

A first round pick and a fourth round pick is nowhere near what two firsts in a vet is

as far as a trade package.

I mean, that's not even in the same ballpark.

So if the patriots are offering, let's just say hypothetically, a first, a fourth and

then another lesser pick, whatever that would be a fifth, a fourth next year, whatever.

And the Raiders are looking at that Micah Parsons trade.

And that goes back to Jay Glazer when we talked about it radio row, Jay Glazer said that

he thought Crosby would net the Raiders more than a Micah Parsons trade.

I found that hard to believe at the time and I still find that hard to believe.

I don't think you're getting more than two first round picks in a veteran like Kenny

Clark for Max Crosby.

I don't think you're getting that type of package.

The billion dollar question is whether or not the two sides, whether it's the patriots

or another team and the Raiders can meet in the middle because if the Raiders are going

to draw that line at two first round picks in a vet, I don't think they're getting that.

But if they're willing to seed some of that and say, okay, how about a first and a third

for example, maybe the patriots do that.

Maybe a first round pick this year and a second next year with a middle round pick this

year.

Maybe that's something they would do.

But right now, if it's a first, fourth and another lesser pick versus two firsts in

a vet, this is not going to work out.

The patriots are not going to trade for Max Crosby.

If neither side is willing to budge and you know, for the Raiders, if Crosby does not

request a trade and the fact that his contract is settled, he just got a new deal.

It feels like it would be less likely he gets dealt.

Now I still think he's going to get traded because it makes the most sense for everybody

involved.

But I don't think it's completely out of the question that he stays.

How about the free agency edge market?

We got the latest on that again, back to Andrew Callahan and Doug Kai.

Multiple team sources believe there are no game changers and free agency.

Trey Hendrixson, Jalen Phillips and Adafé Oway appealed to the patriots, particularly

Phillips.

And of course, we heard that we did the Friday bonus pod for you where Karen Grigian and

Mark Daniels wrote that the patriots are interested in Jalen Phillips.

The Harold says the same here, but the front office is prepared to be priced out in what's

expected to be a red, hot edge market.

So again, aggressive, not reckless.

They're willing to go to a certain point for Jalen Phillips, but they're not going to

go absolutely crazy for Jalen Phillips because they don't think they're that one piece

away.

Callahan and Kai write, therefore, it's likely the patriots double dip with another cheaper

option like Dremont Jones or ex-packers draft pick Kingsley enagbari.

Both players were, you know, drew interest from the patriots at the trade deadline, though

talks involving Dremont Jones were never serious.

So if you're looking at a Dremont Jones type plus drafting somebody and that's what you're

going to add, that's not enough to me.

I mean, Dremont Jones is similar to a Caleb on chase on, I just, I don't think that's

enough.

I don't think going out there and getting a lower to middle tier free agent at edge and

drafting an edge, especially if you got to wait until the second or third round of draft

that edge and Harold Landry coming back.

If he comes back, how's he feel during camp, et cetera, et cetera?

I don't think that's enough.

I do not think that's enough.

I think Caleb on chase on is better than those two guys mentioned, both Jones and enagbari.

I think he's better than those two guys speaking Caleb on chase on the latest on him back

to the Harold, Callahan and Kai, chase on league sources projected could land between

10 and 12 million per year.

If not more, the patriots view chase on in a similar group as Seahawks, Ed rusher, boy,

a mafia and bangles defensive and Joseph a sigh among others.

Now, Joseph a size and interesting name because I would have boy a mafia slightly ahead

of him.

But it certainly feels like the paths have tears when it comes to free agency edge guys and

chase on is more towards the boy, a mafia tier while you look at the Trey Hendrixson

Jalen Phillips and the Daffay O way tier as above that.

Mike Reese, meanwhile, he has PN wrote about chase on to front office executives from other

teams projected chase on's market will be in the 8 million to 11 million dollar range

per season.

So pretty close.

I mean, a Callahan and Kai have 10 to 12 million per year.

Reese talked to two executives that said 8 to 11.

It echoes my thoughts, the Mike Reese Intel echoes my thoughts a week or two ago.

As far as chase on's earnings, I think you're looking at 10 or 11 million a year.

I said that a couple of weeks ago, you know, 12 million a year would seem to be the absolute

ceiling for him.

And I do think the Patriots would bring chase on back if they're looking at 8, 9, 10

million dollars a year.

I do think they would be open to a deal that looked like that kind of deal.

But if you start talking 11, 12, 13, 14 million, I don't think the Patriots are going to

make that move.

I would also remind everybody that the Patriots tried for, you know, Dremont Jones,

E Nagbari.

And they also were interested in and boy a mafia, all three of those guys, they had interested

all three of those guys during the trading deadline.

And that's when you had Caleb on chase on and Harold Landry.

I think the most reasonable path is that the Patriots sign a proven vet.

I'm talking about maybe not the tip of the top.

I would love to see a tip of the top tier guy.

But if they don't go tippy top tier guy, what, what of boy a mafia or Caleb on chase on

sign a proven vet.

And draft one or two edges to join Harold Landry, Anthony Jennings, Elijah Ponder and

Braden Swinton.

I think that's the most reasonable path at that position.

Christian Barmore's trade value is reportedly almost nonexistent.

And more next, this is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown podcast network, your

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Don't forget to like, comment and subscribe, appreciate every single one of you lots speaking

of appreciation.

I appreciate the local beatwriters, lots of local beatwriters doing tremendous work over

the past couple of days, Karen Grigian, Mark Daniels, Andrew Callahan, Doug Kai, Phil

Perry Chad graph, lots of people doing great work.

And Andrew Callahan, Doug Kai did a lot of work over the weekend.

They had a magnum opus of information in the herald.

Let's start with Christian bar more.

Now we've talked about bar more.

The idea of the Patriots may be getting rid of bar more.

I want to talk about the return for bar more if the Patriots did decide to trade him

because that's what stood out to me the most from the herald.

Here's what they wrote.

High ranking members of the organization expect bar more to remain in New England barring

something unexpected.

We've heard that from Karen Grigian and Mark Daniels of Masla, but here's more info from

the herald.

If the Patriots choose to explore the trade market to AFC executives believe they could

land one amounts to a late round pick for bar more.

One estimated the team could land a sixth rounder straight up while the other said bar

more would fetch a fourth round selection in a pick swap trade where the Patriots also

send a sixth or seventh rounder to his new team.

Day three picks a sixth round pick straight up.

No way on God's green earth and my trading Christian ball more for a sixth round pick.

And I know all the questions, right?

We got to see how the court case plays out more on that in a minute.

You know, the knees are not great.

The blood clot situation, the off field stuff aside from just the latest in the court case

coming up.

I mean, I understand it.

We've talked about all of it, but a sixth round pick.

I'm holding on to him getting a fourth round pick.

If you trade bar more in a sixth, I'm holding on to him.

I need a second round pick for Christian bar more.

Maybe you could talk me into a third, but I need a second round pick that that's my

asking price if I were the Patriots.

So we're not even in the same universe.

Now things can change if the court case doesn't go well.

If there are even more allegations, then anything can happen.

And that has been consistently reported.

Like if this court case falls off a cliff or bar more if things don't go well, the Patriots

I do think will cut him if it gets that bad.

I don't think aside from that court case, I think I said this from the very beginning

with how Mike Vrable handled the questions about Christian bar more and how Elliot Wolf handled

the questions about Christian bar more.

This say Mike Vrable thing.

If Mike Vrable feels like he can handle, quote unquote, Christian bar more, they're going

to hold on to him because he does have an impact and I know he's not consistently game-changing

like you wished he was.

He still brings impact and he and Milton Williams are still a headache, especially when

bar more is right.

If you could give, if you could get a second or third round pick, then yeah, you have

the conversation.

But if we're talking about a sixth, you already have four, six round picks in this year's

drive.

You need a fifth.

So I think this court case goes okay, Vrable is going to believe in himself.

He's going to believe in his ability to handle bar more and get the most out of him.

All right.

Let's jump to tight end.

Patriots need to add.

We've talked about it.

They need to add at tight end.

They need to get younger at tight end.

Alejana Kydro, on offense, one league source believes the Patriots will sign a Y, which

is a blocking tight end and draft an F or receiving tight end given the availability of both types

of players and free agency.

If Austin Hooper leaves, don't expect the Ravens Isaiah likely or the Titans to go ZM on

Conquo to replace him.

Now the Isaiah likely piece, that conflicts with the Chad graph report and the athletics

saying the Patriots would be interested and likely.

Of course, part of that report from Chad graph was if the price was right.

But the Harold, Callahan and Kyd saying, don't expect Isaiah likely.

A Conquo was interesting because, of course, he has the Mike Vrable link.

He was, you know, Vrable was in Tennessee when a Conquo was, was drafted.

So that would make sense from that standpoint, a Y tight end is huge.

It's an absolutely huge need, I think, for this football team.

They need somebody who they can, you know, bank on blocking in the run game.

Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper were both very inconsistent when it came to blocking.

They need a tight end that can block, even in past protection, how many times, right?

We saw chips and they weren't really good.

They need somebody who can block and you also, if you want to play three tight end sets,

you need somebody who can block.

Now one of my targets at tight end would be K Don, I, I, I will get to that later this

week when I give you my full free agency and off season plan that'll be coming later

this week.

K Don's a guy that I have highlighted.

All right.

How about Stefan Diggs?

Well, we have even more on Stefan Diggs, Callahan and Kyd according to team sources, Diggs

returned to New England is no guarantee, though multiple high ranking members of the organization

believe his current contract is fair enough, he could continue to play on it.

I would disagree.

I do not think 20.6 million dollars on the base is fair.

I, the way that Diggs started to fade towards the end of the year was not ultra productive

in the playoffs.

Some of that was on the quarterback missing Diggs, but I mean, I look at 20.6 million

base and I look at the, you know, 26 plus million dollar cap hit.

I don't think that's a fair contract for Stefan Diggs in what he brings to you.

Back to the story.

Most outside league sources cast doubt on Diggs's return this week.

Some familiar with the Patriots thinking, however, believe or have a strong belief that

he will be back.

So there's stronger belief internally that Diggs will be back with the Patriots.

Take that for its worth.

And last, no, Jalen Hawkins safety talked about this, right?

That's going to need a safety.

If Hawkins walks, they need a safety.

You bring back Hawkins, you feel okay?

Maybe some depth there you might need, but Jalen Hawkins set to be an unrestricted free

agent.

Callahan and Kyle wrote over the weekend, the Patriots view safety as a deep position in

this year's free agent class, which includes Hawkins.

His market Hawkins is market per sources has been unexpectedly cool.

One AFC team doesn't even view Hawkins as a starting caliber player.

Now if Hawkins leaves, Callahan and Kyle, they mentioned chief safety, Brian Cook, Rams

veteran, Cam Curle and Seahawks up and come or Kobe Bryant as names to watch.

And we have to remember as Callahan and Kyle, right?

The Patriots have a clear type at safety under variable and safeties coach Scott Booker.

They prefer smaller range year players that can cover tackle and communicate well.

That's why Kyle Dugger didn't have a spot.

That's why it's your bro peppers didn't have a spot.

Those guys were sent out because they don't necessarily fit the mold of a Mike Vrable safety.

Jalen Hawkins, he was solid enough last year.

I would have absolutely no issue bringing him back.

I would not sign him to a huge contract.

I wouldn't sign him to a three or four year deal, bring him back a couple of years, right?

Maybe a three year deal, but with an out after year two, you don't need studs everywhere.

So I would have no issue bringing Hawkins back and it feels like according to the herald,

he doesn't really have a hot free agency market.

And he is on record saying he wants to come back and Elliott Wolf went on record during

the combine saying that the Patriots would like to have him back.

That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots.

Thank you for making us your first listen and for being in every day, reach out to me

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