Tensions in the Taiwan Straight and Beyond | Silk and Steel

Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing.

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I have returning guests, Shangri-Yi,

all the way from Taiwan because a couple of things

have happened.

Recently, there's a large Chinese naval exercise

around Taiwan.

And I wanted to get your assessment, Shangri-Yi.

Also, I wanted to know what is the reception

within Taiwan Island itself.

And then we can also maybe address some people

who are saying, there's a lot of media spin recently

regarding US action toward Venezuela,

the kidnapping of Venezuela and President Maduro.

Many people are saying, oh, this is such a humiliation

for China that now it's the dumbass Bill Ackman.

He put it a tweet.

He said, now that China no longer has its hands on Venezuela

and oil, it will make it much harder for China

to take action on Taiwan, which just shows you,

you don't really need a high intelligence

to be a billionaire in the United States.

But let's talk about what is going on.

How did people in Taiwan saw this latest military exercise?

People are just pretty numb to the situation

because there's lack of internal cohesion

over here in Taiwan.

This military drill was in part in response

to a very controversial arms deal

that was passed between the US and the authorities

over here in Taiwan that was pushed by the DPP.

Now, the opposition isn't necessarily against

arms purchases, but it is against this sort of

lack of transparency.

I mean, okay, like Qingdao is saying things like

the CPC has a timeline of reunifying by 2027.

But you look at this arms deal,

like a lot of the stuff doesn't arrive to Taiwan

until many years later.

So then it's like, if that is your excuse for the arms deal,

then why aren't you pushing for things to arrive this year

as opposed to way after 2027?

So it's very apparent that like Qingdao

who was extremely unpopular over here in Taiwan

is doing this in an attempt to curry favor

with the US authorities by paying more protection money

for ultimately no meaningful protection.

The greatest protection that we can get

is having better reconciliation with the Chinese mainland.

And so I think the mainland's response,

the PLA's response with the encirclement of the island,

it's the same as the United,

what is it, the United Trump sword drills of 2024?

Which is a simulation of a total blockade

around the island if people are not familiar

with Chinese history pertaining,

especially history pertaining to China's Taiwan.

The Kangxi Emperor of the Qing Dynasty

was able to reunify the two sides of the strait

by doing exactly that, a naval blockade around Taiwan.

Reducing supplies over here to the point where the rump,

the rump regime, the Zheng regime had to surrender

to the Qing authorities.

And this blockade, the simulation of the blockade

is the PLA is doing a proof of concept saying,

look, if we wanted to, we could definitely

exercise total control around the island.

We don't care about your porcupine strategy

and any of that, you're reliant on foreign countries

for energy.

If we do a total blockade,

you're screwed within a few weeks

and there's no other choice but surrender.

So you might as well make the smart decision

and stop treating us like enemies and come to the table

and keep business within the family among ourselves.

This is basically the message, it's nothing too new,

but I think a lot of those political commentators

in the West, I'm not sure if they actually believe

what they say, I think half of them believe what they say

and the other half is just treating people like dumbasses

and they're talking out of their asses,

saying whatever they think gets the most clicks

and the most views, whatever is most sensationalist

and that does not really help anyone, in my opinion.

What is your assessment?

Oh no, I agree.

I mean, it could be both.

It could really be dumbasses

and they also thinks their audience are dumbasses.

You know, in Bill Ackman's case,

I think that's definitely the case.

And also, there's a lot of grifters.

A lot of these people who are posting about China

and Taiwan are like Palmer Lucky,

the guy who started the making Jones for United States.

You know, he was selling, he was selling the Anduril.

Anduril, Jones to Taiwan at a hundred,

it was like a million dollars apart.

You know, he sold like around 300 Anduril,

Jones to Taiwan and Taiwan had to spend like 300 million dollars

and his Jones have been proven pretty ineffective

in Ukraine, you know, the Ukrainians are now using their own,

own Jones who they're making using imported Chinese

Jones components.

That's why I joke on Twitter, I say,

you know, Taiwan could just save money directly source

from mainland to make their own Jones

rather than spending like a million dollars apart

to buy Anduril, Jones from United States.

But of course, as you say,

this is really not about contributing

to quote unquote defense of Taiwan.

It's really about current favor

with, you know, the US Congressman keep them happy.

So, you know, it's been part,

it's part of being the client state of United States.

You just have to pay up.

And as you say, many of the weapons,

you know, despite Taiwan have paid money up front,

won't you really get delivered decades after?

And they're also buying like weapons

that probably not going to be very useful.

These are very expensive outdated weapon system.

You know, Taiwan, I think they just took delivery

of some apron tanks, which to pay for a long time back.

And by the time you need apron tanks,

it's a little bit too late.

See, in the cross-strait conflict,

in the cross-strait conflict,

an amphibious landing by the PLA would be the last chapter

of a very long book.

So, by the time that happens, you're already screwed.

And you might as well, I mean, at that point,

I'm not even sure if people over here in Taiwan will fight.

Here's the thing, the people of Taiwan,

that doesn't matter whether or not you're in denial.

We are Chinese, okay?

The people over here are Chinese.

And there is quite a bit of civilizational wisdom

in Chinese culture and Chinese people in general

tend to be pretty pragmatic.

And now, specifically in Taiwan,

the people here are not as brave as the people of Ukraine,

but what we lack and courage,

we have more pragmatism and intelligence, I must say.

I mean, even to Zeybian, the first DPP leader of Taiwan,

who actually tried to push Taiwan's separatism

in an interview with Cao Cao Kang.

He said, this is not a matter of how much you love Taiwan.

No matter how great our military is,

the objective reality is we cannot defeat

the people's liberation army.

Even, even to Zeybian is saying that.

But now, you know what the lighting

the administration is doing?

What are they doing?

Every family entire, every household in Taiwan

received one of these little orange books.

No way.

And they're telling us some.

When the crisis comes.

Yes, when the crisis comes

and then it's like the all people of Taiwan,

the safety instructions.

Safety guide.

Safety guide, yeah.

And then it's like the.

Do you know what this reminds me of?

There's a game, a popular RPG game.

It's a American game actually fall out.

And in fall out, it's about the post-New Clear Apocalypse

United States.

After it had the New Clear Exchange with China supposedly.

And one of the running gig of the game

is you run into all these like safety guys, you know?

What to do in case of a new clear attack?

This is what it reminds me of.

And that has a light-sheen-dust signature.

Yeah.

OK.

I'm trying.

This is like a mirror in the dream of the screen.

It says, this is the Taiwan that we love deeply.

We are, I can't, I can't read backwards.

We are, we can enjoy freedom, democracy,

and be the master of the country, our country.

And this is a result of the sacrifices

of previous generations.

And that was a tinside.

OK, so whether it's natural disasters or natural disasters,

extreme climate, or Chinese aggression.

See, he's not even saying mainland aggression.

He's saying Chinese aggression.

So he's trying to frame it as Taiwan and China versus Taiwan

in the mainland, implying it's two separate countries,

despite the laws of the very government he's leading.

But the challenges we face have never stopped.

Yeah, I've never stopped.

And that's a good tool.

It's hard to read backwards, man.

This is like mirror image.

It's a, this is the time full of challenges.

Our safety is built upon a resolute will for defense.

Yeah.

And our determination to prepare in the normal times,

to be prepared, be prepared more safe.

Yes.

This booklet will provide everyone with the safety guide.

Yeah, yeah, basically let us in.

It's all a bunch of bullshit.

And then it's like, OK, what to prepare in your home

or whatever.

But then it's also, it also has like part saying,

like don't believe fake news.

Any voice is saying that saying that calling for surrender

or whatever is fake and that we must like

defend to the very last man, stuff like that.

So it's some, everyone's making fun of this.

I mean, no one's.

So you have to understand the same people in Western media

that are telling you Maduro is widely hated in Venezuela

are the same people telling you that this government in Taiwan,

the Lai Qingda administration, is widely popular.

When he is, I think he's the least popular in my entire lifetime.

I was born during the Li Donghui era, right?

I wasn't alive during Jiang Jinguo, but Li Donghui,

Chen Shui Bi and Ma Ying, Zhou Cai and Wen,

Lai Qingda been the life of five leaders.

Lai Qingda is so far the least popular.

And it's only his second year of leadership.

And his popularity and support is going down.

He doesn't have any domestic support.

So he's trying to curry favor with his US pastors.

Meanwhile, the KMT right now under its new leadership

of the new chairwoman Zheng Li Wen

is calling for a return to a more reconciliation

and a working relationship with the Communist Party of China.

And I think this is the wise decision

because you see under the KMT under the leadership

of Zhang Ji Chang, Zhang Ji Chang, he's tried so hard

or like Zhu Li Run, they tried so hard to be pro-America,

but they still got hit with allegations

of being a CPC puppet.

If that's the KC, might as well just work

for closer relationships with the CPC

because no matter what, given the political landscape

of Taiwan today, as long as your KMT,

you're always no matter what you do,

you're still going to be seen as a CPC puppet.

Might as well become one.

That's the general.

And she says she's going to visit mainland next week.

So actually, it will be this year.

She says she's going to be visiting mainland this year.

Yeah, yeah.

I think I'm just saying that last year, so.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, some people think

it's some sort of unprecedented breakthrough,

but I think it's because in recent years,

Taiwan's been under DPP leadership.

So it's like kind of a distant memory

when the KMT and the CPC were a little bit more

reconciliatory, though, I mean, during the Mayanjo years,

he met with the leader of Taiwan Mayanjo

and met with President Xi Jinping in Singapore.

But I think that was poorly executed on his part.

Like he did it when his support in Taiwan

was at its lowest.

You don't make controversial moves like that

when your support is already low.

You do it when it's high.

He should have met Hu Qin Tao

when he was first elected and his popularity was like sky high.

But that's either here or no there.

It's not something that we get to decide.

So yeah, I think what you want to tie this with

is Venezuela and what people here in Taiwan are thinking.

Well, I mean, because you know,

a lot of people were saying, oh, now like,

I mean, this usually just Trump supporters that are saying,

oh, this is this is a big setback for, what is this?

They even said this in English.

Oh, in the event of military invasion of Taiwan,

any claim that the government has surrendered

or that nation has been defeated is false.

Step one, like the Sambu Iao,

like the three nose and one must know,

I guess don't make, don't create fake news.

Don't believe fake news.

Don't spread fake news.

And then you must a fat check,

which is funny because the DPP media never fact checks.

You have people like, you know, for example, Bill Ackman,

Bill Ackman, who says, oh, this is this move

by Xi Jinping Maduro.

You really show China makes China think twice

about moving on to Taiwan, which is completely ridiculous.

And then there's also people in the mainstream media saying,

oh, you know, China is doing this super aggressive move

by carrying out naval exercise in the Taiwan-Sue

in violation of regional peace, stability, all that.

While they're saying that with a straight face,

while US just carry out this kidnapping

of a leader of a sovereign nation.

So a lot of this is just noise,

but I still wanted to talk about it

because, first of all, China's plan for Taiwan

or whatever China is going to do with Taiwan

has nothing to do with what United States is doing

in the Western hemisphere.

You know, China will carry out its plans no matter what.

And in fact, I think the whole,

the recent tightening of the court down around Taiwan,

this is precipitated by Nancy Pelosi visit a few years back.

And I remember also when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan,

people were also saying,

oh, this is such a humiliation for China.

You know, they failed to stop Nancy Pelosi from landing.

Even a bunch of these resistance accounts on Twitter

were like spurging out about it.

And I'm like, and then they're like,

why didn't China, I'm so disappointed,

why didn't China shoot down the plane?

And it's like, okay, shooting down the plane,

that would have created an international disaster.

But what the PLA ended up doing using that

as an excuse to tighten its military drills around the island,

it played perfectly into China's hands.

Like you have to realize the Chinese government

is much more far-sighted than most average people,

most average Chinese people even, right?

So, I don't know, it's also this understanding,

like why do you assume that the PLA's plans,

for Taiwan is a military operation

and the kidnapping of a leader or anything like that?

For ever since the 1950s and 60s,

like the CPCs pivoted towards liberating Taiwan

to coming up with a peaceful negotiation.

I guess in the 1950s, it was still like,

okay, the Civil War hasn't completed yet.

So like Taiwan is a final frontier that we must enter.

But then after things stabilized, it's like, okay,

we can respect the fact that Taiwan is still

under separate administration.

As long as everybody acknowledges that we are all Chinese,

we are one country, this is a conflict

between two rival factions within the same country.

If you keep it within the family, it's all good.

We can solve it on our own accord without foreign interference.

Right, so why do people assume that the PLA is bloodthirsty

and wants to launch an attack on Taiwan?

If it wanted to, it would have done so a long time ago.

But the thing is that's messy and it doesn't,

it doesn't really benefit anybody.

Look, the CPC, it studies history a lot.

It studied what, all of the things,

all of the challenges that the KMT faced

when they took Taiwan back from 50 years of Japanese rule.

And the lack of tactfulness that the KMT exercised

during the first few years, specifically,

especially culminating in the 228 incident in 1947,

these are all things that the CPC would like to avoid.

And you know how you don't avoid them is

if you are overly, militarily aggressive

and want to solve things right now,

see, like, like, too Beijing, it's like, okay,

the writing is on the wall.

Decades ago that it's an inevitability

that Taiwan will be re-inified with the rest of China.

Taiwan has already been returned to China in 1945.

It's just right now it's under an internal division.

So I don't understand the, I really don't understand why people,

even pro-China Westerners assume that, you know,

Beijing is going to make a move like that

or wants to make a move like that.

Military force ever since, especially ever since

the thung-shelping era has been framed as a last resort.

Is this something that people in the West have just missed?

Like, even pro-China people have missed?

Is this something that they don't understand?

I think there's just such a black hole of ignorance

about China in the West in general.

I mean, no matter which side of spectrum you are on,

you just, not just not many people really know

what's going on in China across the Taiwan Strait.

This is why I have you on my show.

And, you know, and even like I saw people talk to him,

oh, China could then, you know,

or, you know, like the people say,

oh, now, now you've tried, you have,

you have people, I think, who's many has found you say,

oh, you've China now go kidnaps,

the captures, the leader of Taiwan,

now the US wouldn't be able to say anything

because the US is doing the same thing.

But like, first of all, why would,

let's set aside the fact that

Venezuela is a sovereign nation?

Taiwan is not.

Let's set that aside for a moment.

But why would China even need to capture Leichin does?

Like, Leichin does is useless.

He's like a leader with low popularity in Taiwan,

as you say.

Exactly, what's the point?

What China's ultimate goal is to integrate Taiwan, right?

Capturing, just simply capturing Leichin does minimal.

I think capturing Leichin though

would increase its popularity.

Yeah, probably.

I think there's the delay between us.

That's why it sounds like I'm talking over you.

It's fine, it's my internet.

I think it's either my internet.

I don't think it's your internet.

It's your third-world internet.

It's better.

It's about.

So, yeah, it is.

China has a very patient plans for Taiwan.

A lot of people do not understand the Chinese strategic

patient.

This is why I brought an example of Nancy Pelosi.

Back at the time of Nancy Pelosi's visit, as you say,

a lot of people say, oh, China totally got humiliated

by allowing her to land and by not do anything.

Now, Nancy Pelosi's plane was escorted by US Air Force fighters.

I mean, shooting her plane, but shooting down her plane

is going to lead to a war immediately.

But, as you say, China, what have Lao China to do

is then after they waited for Nancy Pelosi to leave

and then started naval exercise around Taiwan.

In a scale that was surpassed any previous exercise

in Taiwan's trade.

And now, the frequency of the exercise is more and more.

And if this had happened without Nancy Pelosi's visit,

the United States would have thrown a shit fit.

And as well as all the talking heads in the Western media

will be in the uproar.

But because we're expecting China

to do something drastic, and then the real,

then at the end, China just did the naval exercise.

So in the end, it's like, okay, no, no, we'll work three.

It's just an exercise.

But now, China gets to exercise sovereignty

around the waters around Taiwan.

And it does that anytime it wants to.

That's what the latest exercise showed.

But people don't appreciate that because I think people

are so used to how the United States would do things.

So that's what China should do to counter the United States

to do exactly what the United States would do.

Which is, I think it's great.

You know what really upsets me about these people,

especially the ones in the West to say they are pro-China?

When they frame things like this,

they are fundamentally saying they don't

view the people of Taiwan as Chinese.

And if you don't view the people of Taiwan as Chinese,

even if you say you are for Chinese reunification,

you are objectively siding with the Taiwan separatists,

you are objectively sowing the vision

between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Because you want the People's Liberation Army

to attack Taiwan and bomb Taiwan,

they are going to, if they do that,

it's Chinese people killing Chinese people.

And that's what advocates of Chinese reunification

on both sides of the Taiwan Strait want to avoid.

Now the PLA has a completely ruled out

the use of military force because there's no telling

what separatists or the US might do in the region.

But that doesn't mean that this is the preferred method

of resolving this decades-long unsettled business

within our country, right?

And also the whole thing, you have people saying,

oh, Venezuela happens, so China,

do your thing with Taiwan.

And to me, that is a very disgusting view

of China's internal affairs.

You know what, you are not Chinese,

you are, it's just not your place to dictate, man.

It's the days of, I don't care if you say you are pro

or anti-China.

The days of foreigners pointing their fingers at us,

telling us how to run our business is over.

This is no longer the late Qing Dynasty

or the early Republican period.

This is a new China.

The Chinese people have stood up.

We fought, defender our sovereignty in Korea,

pushing the Americans back to the 38th parallel

when MacArthur was trying to make advances

into China across the Yalu River

and even biochemical weapons were dropped

within China on the frontier regions.

The days, in the words of Marshal Peng Dilhwei,

the days of Westerners telling China what to do

by setting up a few gunboats on our coast are over.

And this applies even to these so-called resistance people

in the West.

I'm sick of these people telling Chinese people

what we should and shouldn't do within our own country.

You know?

Not exactly.

I mean, those so-called resistance people

or pro-multiple-erity people,

they actually don't care about China or the Chinese people

because to do a war between on the Taiwan Shrine

will have big consequences that will be mostly bear

by the Chinese people on both sides of Taiwan Shrine.

You will be the Chinese people that's doing the dying.

By making rhetoric like,

oh, China, why don't you use this opportunity

to go after Taiwan?

What they're saying,

they really don't care about China or people,

so Chinese people.

They just want to use China as a tool,

as a leverage against their big gray Satan, right?

They just want, okay,

or we just want someone to oppose United States.

I don't care if you, you know, if you bleed or die,

I just want you to do it for me because I'm powered.

Hold on, hold on, hold on.

Sorry, my grandma was having,

no, my grandma grandma was having complications

with her little wireless phone.

Like, it's ringing the bass and she's like freaking out

because it's an unfamiliar sound, yeah.

Okay, everything's okay now.

Yeah, everything's good.

Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, I mean,

this is all about their own little personal ego trips.

Like they, because they,

some, themselves feel impotent to stop the United States.

They're like, oh, China, do it for me.

And if you don't do it, China, you're coward.

So I can, you know what it is?

Look, what?

It's, these people, they grew up believing in the fact that,

believing in the idea that America's the leader

of the free world and it's on the right side of history.

It's fighting for justice.

And then they became disillusioned with, you know,

this rhetoric, they saw the things that America was doing.

So now there is a void in their worldview

and they want something else.

First there was a Soviet Union

and then there was China to fill this void, right?

Okay, and then the Soviet Union collapsed

and now they want China to fill the void

of the Soviet Union.

But I'm sorry, China is not the Soviet Union.

The Soviet Union, yes, there were many successes.

They did a lot of great things.

They also messed up a lot,

which is why they are not here today.

If they were that great, they'd still be here today

is what I'm saying.

Why should China follow in the footsteps

of something that ultimately failed, right?

There were many successes, I don't deny that.

But the fact that they're not here anymore

says that there were things

that were fundamentally messed up about them.

And yes, you can blame, oh, but it's because

of Western imperialist that did this.

Okay, but if they were that great,

why couldn't they fight off that influence

and stay alive?

If they were that great, why are they not around anymore?

And then they would also say things like,

oh, but see, China's not doing enough,

whereas the Soviet Union did this, this, this and this.

And it's like, okay, so are you going to pretend

that the Soviet Union was above real politics?

You wanna look at the times the Soviet Union's

like screwed over China in disregard of Chinese sovereignty?

Look at the way out of Mongolia was carved.

See, I'm not even upset at this.

The fact of the matter is,

China, we were too weak to do anything about it.

When you're weak, there's nothing you can do.

And from the Soviet perspective, it made sense

in their interests to carve out out of Mongolia

as a buffer state.

And then they were like, okay, hey, Japanese people,

if you recognize an independent Mongolia,

we will recognize your puppet state of Manchu Kuo.

I mean, is that not real politics?

What about their solidarity?

Their international solidarity?

What the Chinese people who were being invaded

by the Japanese and being carved up by them

and had the Northeast carved up into a puppet state

of so-called Manchu Ryo, huh?

And I'm not saying this because I'm mad at them.

I'm just saying, what's up with these double standards?

It's like, these western, like, it's just,

it's just unresolved daddy issues projected

on the politics as my opinion.

Not exactly it is, but you are also assuming a lot.

You assume they know all these history.

I can guarantee you, with 90% uncertainty,

they have no idea what you just talk about.

This is why I have this podcast

trying to educate people, trying to bring them

just basic facts and with some historical perspective.

Yeah, I understand why people would be upset

because United States is on rampage

and it seems it's unchecked.

But look, man, the way that they carry out their frustration,

like, why is, how is this China's fall?

Like, you should be blaming United States.

China is doing its best.

It has condemned U.S. actions,

but even if you, I don't know what they expect,

even today, China still lacks the power projection,

capability that way the United States military has

because U.S. has military base all around the world.

And there's no Chinese military base in Latin America.

There's, and like, even if China wants to do

an intervention in Venezuela, China lacks the power projection.

And you really want China be the mirror image

of United States to have military base all around the world.

I mean, that's one of the things

that distinguish China from United States.

Exactly.

China's, do not have an interventionist foreign policy.

And but a lot of people seem to accept that.

It seems like, okay, you have to be,

if you're powerful, you have to act

as mirror image of United States.

No, no, that's not the case at all.

Do they, do they think that during the Korean War,

the U.S. was dispatching troops

by sending ships across the Pacific every day?

No, they were operating out of Japan.

That's where MacArthur's base was.

Yeah, and also in case of Japan,

and in case of Korea and Vietnam,

China did intervene because those countries

are on the border of China.

China could send over supplies over the railroad,

over roads, this is like China now face,

they want to do something in Venezuela

that faces the dilemma of the tyranny of distances.

I mean, South America is literally one of the places

farthest away from China.

I don't think there's any direct flight from China

to South America at this point because it's too far.

Vietnam were on China's border.

So China had the incentive to intervene

because it wasn't just about good feelings

or whatever it was about.

It was a matter of national security

whereas Latin America is so far away, you don't think.

United States, the mainland United States

is closer to China than South America.

If China has the capability to deter United States

in Caribbean, that would have meant

that China has the capability to deter United States

from the coast of California.

I mean, to put that into perspective

because California is closer to China than Venezuela is.

And so there's real constraints,

there's physical geographic constraints.

And I think about these people

is they have, they're very ideological,

but then when it comes to military affairs,

military affairs have are still grounded

in objective reality.

Yes, you can make the argument that like a people

who's will is unbreakable cannot be defeated.

But there are limits to that, there's limits to that.

I mean, that that was even though the US

was far better equipped than the Chinese and Korean soldiers

during the Korean War, there were still advantages

on the Chinese and Korean sides,

which is why the Chinese people's volunteers

were able to push US forces back to the 38th parallel

more or less and wear them out to the point

where they asked for an armistice.

The thing about these people that are just so ideological

that they just forget about the objective realities

of politics, the economy and the military is,

I bet if you tell these people that Mongolia has a navy,

they'll believe you.

I think Mongolia did have a navy at one point.

They have a lake.

They have like a lake near the water with Russia,

they have a lake.

So I think there is a Mongolian navy

at some point because this is the one fairytale.

I know what you're saying.

I mean, most of these people are just venting

their own personal frustration

because they somehow they see this geopolitics

as some kind of personal drama

and they're projecting their own personal frustration

onto their own inability to change the policy

of United States, the project that to others.

Yeah, I think we spend enough time talking about it.

DPP on the one hand is like kind of saying

that this is a victory for democracy in Venezuela,

but at the same time, it's like trying to up its defenses,

just in case Beijing takes inspiration from this operation.

So that's really funny because how can two of these facts

be true at the same time?

When it's clearly just the violation of sovereignty.

What is your crystal ball?

Like, Lichen does still have many years to go, right?

On his as the president of Taiwan.

Two.

Yeah, two more years.

Do you think the opposition have a serious,

could present a serious challenge to the DPP rule

after the, after at the next election?

Well, the immediate next elections this year

with the mayoral elections and the county magistrate elections

and because DPP's widely unpopular right now,

there's a chance that the cities of Tai Nan and Gaoshu,

which are traditionally DPP strongholds,

will flip towards the KMT.

See, the last election in 2024 saw a DPP victory

because the opposition, which is split between the KMT

and the new third party, the TPP, the Taiwan People's Party,

were split.

But ever since that split and because the two of them

have been attacked as a single unit by the DPP,

their unity is much better than ever.

And right now, I think there is a mutual understanding

between these two parties where it's like, okay,

we are at an advantage in this city.

So you will throw support behind us.

And then in this other city where you are at the advantage,

we will throw support behind you

when we won't try to take away from revolts.

There is that sort of a symbiotic relationship

between the KMT and the TPP that's never been seen before.

And the thing about the TPP is I'd say more than half

of their supporters are former DPP.

They appeal to those types of people.

Whereas the DPP is just a bunch of boomers and millennials

that were always DPP supporters and are very stubborn about it.

So there is much more flexibility in the opposition right now

that's made up of old school KMT,

like this lukewarm KMT, as well as former DPP

when it comes to appealing to the masses.

And if Tyna and Galsheng flip blue this year,

then it's a very bad sign for the DPP.

Now, there's no telling what will happen

within the next two years.

But my prediction is things will go very bad

that Nightingale will suffer from a humiliating defeat in 2028.

There's little chance I can't see him being reelected.

Unless something totally unforeseen happens

in the unity between the KMT and the TPP is utterly destroyed.

Yeah, I mean, he himself,

Lai Chien, the only guy elected with a 40% of the votes.

Yeah.

And then he was only because the split opposition

that allow him to gain a plurality of the votes

and to begin elected the leader.

So yeah, we'll see what happens.

Well, the internet is so bad.

So let's just wrap it up.

Yeah.

So thank you.

Is there any other topic you would like to discuss?

Well, I just got a very exciting announcement to make,

which is I've hinted at this for a very long time.

But I am now in the North Korea travel industry.

I'm now working with a company called Teton Tours.

It is a newcomer in the industry.

And as North Korea, North Korea tourism

was shut down in 2020 and responds to COVID.

And there's been a few false starts,

but it hasn't fully reopened to tourism yet.

Right now, only Russians can get in.

But we at Teton Tours have secured a contract

with the local Korean tour operators and the DPRK.

And as soon as tourism is back in action,

we are ready to go.

So anybody that wants to go to North Korea,

that's not from a country that bans you from going.

Hit me up.

You can look us up on Instagram at Teton Tours.

That's T-A-E-D-O-N-G tours.

And if you just follow me on socials,

you'll see links to it.

I'll mention it.

Yeah, we're a newcomer.

So please, please, please support us, help spread word.

And we might not be the oldest in the game,

but I do believe we are the most knowledgeable,

the most culturally sensitive, the most culturally,

in tune with the Koreans and overall, the most-based.

So that's why I've been hanging around the China's Northeast

so long in these past few months.

I know these trips might seem random.

Like, why am I going to a Northeastern China so much?

Well, now you know.

Because what's right next to the Northeast?

So by your estimation, you think that the opening

of North Korea for tourism will come probably soon.

Maybe even this year.

I don't want to say anything about this

because until there is official confirmation,

everything is just speculation.

I have reason to believe that it's this year,

but I can't promise anything because there's so many factors,

so many moving parts.

I feel that like if I say anything,

like for certain, the opposite's going to happen.

So I'm just going to, yeah.

But follow us.

Go to our website, TedonTours.com.

There's a newsletter you can subscribe to.

If you subscribe to our newsletter,

as soon as we receive confirmation from the Koreans

that the DPRK is reopening of tourism,

you will be among the first to find out.

Good, good call, good call.

What, there's only two countries

that bands travel to North Korea, right?

United States and South Korea.

Is that correct?

Three, what's this?

Malaysia.

Is it Malaysia, sir?

Yeah, yeah, okay.

So if you do not hold, if you hold a passport,

that's none other than those three countries.

Or if you do have those three country passport,

or if you have additional passports,

then you can go.

It depends, it depends.

For South Koreans, the band comes from South Korea too.

And as long as you are a South Korean citizen,

you are still on the hook.

So if you go to North Korea on,

now the North Koreans don't let South Koreans go.

And the past, it was just South Korea

doesn't let its citizens go,

but now the relations are bad.

So in our contract, it literally says,

we do not accept guests holding the South Korean passport.

And then the Korean version of the contract

that says,

they don't say South Korea anymore.

It's the Korean Korean.

So I'm public Korea.

So and then Malaysia doesn't allow for dual citizenship.

So you can't, yeah, if you're in Malaysia and you can't go,

the US travel band, however,

it's a band on the US passport.

It's not a band on the US citizen.

So if you are a US citizen,

but you have a Canadian passport,

then you can still go.

But please do your own research before making any decision

to book any tours,

because I am not a legal advisor.

This is, these are just the laws.

We want everybody to do their own research

and we take everybody's safety very seriously.

And I'm sorry,

but if you only have a US passport,

we will not help you facilitate any violation

of this travel band.

For your own safety, as well as for our own, as well.

We don't want you going back to the United States

and just dealing with things that you probably do not want

to deal with.

And we certainly don't want to deal with any potential fallout

that results from that sort of.

Yeah, we can only hope for the best.

The travel band is set to expire every year.

The reason why it keeps on being in place

is because so far ever since 2017,

it's been renewed every year.

But as long as there's some sort of diplomatic breakthrough,

and between Washington and Pyongyang,

I can see the travel band just expiring on its own.

And before we know it,

I think within the next decade,

hopefully Americans can start visiting the DPRK again.

That's my hope.

It's, I think it's good for everybody.

It's good for obviously good for business,

but I think it's just good for building bridges.

And giving Americans the opportunity

to see North Korea beyond the headlines

and an opportunity for the people of the DPRK

to see Americans as beyond their headlines

as well beyond the political rhetoric.

Because in theory, they know that,

okay, the American people and the American government

are different, but when you don't have contact

with regular American people,

it's easy to forget that part.

So that's just, yeah, that's kind of our MO,

just becoming serving as a cultural bridge

between, yeah.

All right, let's,

okay, we can wrap it up here.

Thank you, Sean, you're for making the time

to speak to us on the issue of Taiwan.

And thank you very much for having me on the good.

Thank you all.

Thank you all.

Oh, anytime, anytime.

You always provide a valuable perspective.

And for everyone listening,

thank you for tuning in until next time.

Bye.

Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing,

another checkered flag for the books.

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