'Terror Attacks Guaranteed Across West' John Bolton WARNS Over Iranian Spy Breach At UK Nuclear Base

They've got their hands on the windpipe of the world's oil supply, and it's dangerous for them to have that potential to turn it on and turn it off again.

They may not be standard issue army combat boots, but there are people on the ground doing special operations kinds of work.

If the regime survives like a wounded animal, the repression against its own citizens will be the first thing they do.

Well, look, I think Iran has terrorist and espionage capabilities across Europe, across North America.

I think we should all be on a heightened state of alert.

Now, President Trump is declaring almost victory in Iran, but at the same time the Pentagon's denunding another 200 billion in military funding to keep the war going.

Who's right? Who's correct? Joining us once again for the latest updates on the situation in Iran.

Former National Security Advisor, Ambassador Bolton, John Bolton, good morning.

Good morning. Glad to be with you.

Thanks for joining us again. Who's correct? Donald Trump saying the war is almost over.

The Israelis are saying they're about halfway through, and the Pentagon seem to be in it for the lumbar.

Well, I'm not sure any of them are right, but for different reasons.

I mean, look, Trump is a salesman. That's what he does. Everything's fine. Almost over. What could go wrong?

He's obviously worried about oil prices and the general effect on the economy, especially in the US as we head toward midterm elections.

Look, I think Netanyahu clearly wants regime change. It's not clear what Trump's objective is.

He's talked about regime change, but his advisors keep saying different things.

Regime change is going to take longer. And as I said, I think that's what the Israelis really want.

The Pentagon budget request is, I mean, we need to look at the details, but I'm sure it's more than just the cost of the war to date.

They're also thinking about replenishing the stockpiles of weapons that we've used in the war with Iran and in providing assistance to Ukraine.

We've obviously budgeted for many years to far too small stockpiles and arsenals.

And in a dangerous world, we need to have more. I'd say the same is true for every NATO member.

Absolutely.

The first few weeks, we're approaching week three of this conflict.

The first couple of weeks, it appeared the Israelis and the American military were in lockstep.

They were heaping praise on each other.

Piheskas saying what brilliant allies they are.

Starting to deviate a little bit now. There's a sort of slap on the wrist for bombing all facilities.

It does seem that while the Americans are keen to talk about the nuclear threat, as you say, the Israelis are pushing for a much broader and comprehensive,

almost sort of chaos theory of shaking the tree and seeing what happens.

Are we seeing a deep divergence between the two allies there?

Well, I think there could be. I wouldn't overstate it though.

I mean, if you look at the history of World War II, the differences between the UK and the US between Churchill and Roosevelt on how to carry through to victory over the Nazis in Europe, but for both countries over Japan and the Pacific.

Covered over a lot of differences.

I mean, there were some hard fought conferences during the course of that war.

How Churchill wanted to approach through southern Europe, how the US wanted a landing on the coast of France and so on and so forth.

So, you know, nothing in human life ever finds agreement on everything.

And I don't, you know, it's Trump has obviously got a different temperament than Netanyahu.

That's the politest way I can put it.

So these differences are going to arise. There's no doubt about it.

Speaking to his really figures in the last few days, they've said they've been, you know, they're more concerned about being alive than they are about being popular.

And frankly, I'm not paying a huge amount of attention to the sort of global, well, certainly Western backlash and popularity of this conflict.

They're saying they're in it for a reason and that, you know, that's the important thing as a survival issue for Israel.

Not quite the same for the Americans, as you say, with midterms coming, the increasing of gas prices, global market instability, oil prices soaring.

Do you get the impression that the president is starting to not perhaps tire of this conflict, but certainly looking for that off ramp we've discussed?

I think that's clear. I mean, he, his idea of a long war was the 12-day war last summer with Israel against Iran's nuclear program where America's participation in that 12-day war was one war.

One day you could call it a 12 bomb, 12 or 14 bomb war, or the capture of Maduro in Venezuela, a brilliant operation, although it left the rest of the regime in place.

You just can't do that in the case of Iran. You know, in Israel, as you say, they do see it as existential.

I think it's as close to unanimous as anything you get in a democratic society that they want to see the Iranian threat removed.

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So I think Trump is torn in somewhat different directions. He said in Kentucky a few days ago, look, we don't want to have to go back and do this every two years, which is the right, the right conclusion, but the only way to be able to do that to avoid going back every two years is to get rid of this regime.

So I think he's hoping for what everybody would like, which is the regime topples quickly. And you know, these autocratic regimes can look hard on the outside, but be rotten inside. And as we decapitate the top leadership is as tensions grow as people inside Iran start to inside the regime start to go at each other.

But this could come more quickly than we think, but we've also got to be prepared for the longer term. We've got to do more to help the Iranian opposition, help the ethnic groups, help the young people, the women, the many, many people who are dissatisfied with the regime so they can connect with figures, for example, in the regular army, not the revolutionary guard, but the regular army have them come over the opposition side.

That is a longer term proposition, but we need to give them more help right now.

Do you think the president's bit not more than he can chew? There's also these conflicting reports and denied very heavily by the administration, but sourced nonetheless to senior figures within the intelligence world that he just wasn't prepared for the scale of the Iranian retaliation and not just in terms of blocking the streets, but in terms of bombing, bombing, bombing Gulf allies.

Right. Well, he has said that and particularly said nobody thought they would attack the Gulf allies. I can tell you we thought of it back in his first term. It's an almost knee jerk reflex on the part of the Iran's as is closing the straight of hormones or just making a shipping traffic in the Gulf itself difficult. It's not it's not really a large body of water as we see things.

I've heard our naval officers talk about his sailing around in a bathtub. So that threat to the oil tankers and the oil and gas commerce through the Gulf and through the straight was always a threat.

And I think if anything, the actions Iran has taken to close the straight to destroy the tankers in the Gulf shows why we can't let that regime endure in power because they now know they've got graphic proof.

They've got their hands on the windpipe of the world's oral supply and that's it's dangerous for them to have that potential to turn it on and turn it off anytime they want.

Good to serve the lining of all of this be a complete realignment of the usual rules in the region in the fact that you've now got the Saudis and the Emirates and not perhaps the Qataris, but the Saudis and the Emirates almost sharing objectives and goals with the Israelis.

Look, it's that's part of the seismic transformation of the region that led to the Abraham Accords, the recognition of Israel, the exchange of diplomatic representation that many of the Arab states came to the realization they and the Israelis had a common view on what their main strategic threat was and it was the.

I told is in in Iran and I do think the so as you say the Saudis and the Emirates are actually getting closer to joining in the hostilities they they see an existential threat to their regimes if Iran itself continues to go after their oil infrastructure.

So the Qataris are in a different place, but but it looks to me like the the overall movement in the key Gulf countries is closer relations with Israel and the US.

Although it would be a marked escalation in this conflict you think in a weird way it could take some pressure off of the of the White House if the Saudis say as their threatening started start to start air strikes on Iran.

Yes, I do. I mean I look I think one of Trump's mistakes beforehand was not briefing the allies and making the case for regime change or whatever his objectives are in advance.

You don't have to tell the allies or the general public exactly what you're going to do or when you're going to do it but you have to get them ready roll the pitches I think what they say in in Britain and he didn't do that.

I think if if if you look at Europe in particular if they saw some of the Gulf Arab saying look we're not just in this as a matter of self defense we think that this regime's got to go or at least its capabilities dramatically reduced I think that would cause a lot of European leaders to rethink their reticence to get involved.

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Well he certainly made that point clear with the with the Japanese yesterday in the in the oval office talking to pitch rolling though I feel it does feel like there's beginning to be a slight drum beat towards a possible marine deployment boots deployments on Kerg Islands.

That would obviously be again a dramatic escalation on this but why has officials briefing this morning that you know a US president a commander in chief deploying boots isn't necessarily an unusual thing.

And unusual thing and actually you can point to almost every previous president in modern history deploying boots somewhere on the ground.

Do you think that's where it's heading at the same time as the president saying this is nearly over there's clearly clearly studying the options on Kerg right.

Right well Trump's perfectly capable of saying to contradictory things at the same time he does it he does it all the time.

Look they're boots on the ground now Israeli and American they may not be standard issue army combat boots there are people on the ground doing special operations kinds of work and and I think the options they're looking at don't don't are nothing like a full scale invasion that's not what they're talking about they're talking about things as you say.

To seize car dial in the main terminal to for a run to lift oil onto ships perhaps seizing a high ground around the straight of hormones perhaps securing or removing some of the uranium rich uranium from the nuclear weapon sites those kinds of more limited operations which you know what need careful review on their own merits but which I certainly wouldn't rule out especially on the nuclear side we don't we don't want whether there's regime change.

Not we don't want the enriched uranium the centrifuges the other sensitive equipment and information at the nuclear sites to fall into the wrong hands.

Yeah I'm not on that point that would have sort of given you know there is a there's a path to declaring some form of victory if you know the stated aim of surrendering or destroying seizing or destroying sorry the refined nuclear capabilities.

I mean we're reading today that it's under a 300 you know 300 foot mountain mountain pickaxe that's going to be you know that's quite a bit the difference between going in and grabbing the duo and getting 300 300 foot down a cave isn't that.

Right well in the uranium enriched uranium is probably in the form of a gas uranium hexafluoride which at room temperatures becomes crystalline so in the United States we store that in 5,000 pound containers.

I don't know how the Iranians store it but you just sort of don't walk in and pick up 5,000 pound containers all that easily.

Another alternative though at tickaxe mountain or at Fort O where there were uranium enrichment chambers located deep under a mountain if you could see all the entrances effectively and bury the stuff inside and the Iranians couldn't get on it you could also monitor that from the skies forever.

And if you saw them attempting to open it up then you could go back in and close it again so I think we need to know more about what the situation is on the ground which means potentially a longer and therefore more dangerous mission but but as you say being able to say we have secured

that ex-thousand pounds of enriched uranium hexafluoride would not be a bad thing.

What's your gun instance obviously the intelligence picture is mixed we're reading sort of various reports that the new supreme leaders perhaps lost a leg perhaps he's in a coma.

I don't even know his the the itola yet who's really in charge it does seem to be some massively local disbursement of power within the regime.

What is your gut say on on how does you mentioned earlier that you know the things things can look very good and then look very bad very quickly.

What is your what is your instincts say on where the regime where the regime is.

I think it's in deep trouble I think the the decimation of the leadership is real I think one reason they picked the supreme leaders son who was a very controversial figure and yet they picked quickly was they wanted to show they could they could accomplish the succession quickly and he could well be he was in a coma and they could all agree on it because because it would paper over their initial differences there's still no sign of life there's still no indication he's alive at all.

So I don't know if this is what was the name of that movie weekend at Bernie's or something like that that that's the kind of regime they have but but I do think the decimation of the top leadership is significant and their pre war.

The instruction to de-centralize control in the revolutionary guard may sound like a good thing if you're worried about losing communication with all your units but once you've split up like that it permits the opposition they can get some weapons for example in the Kurdish areas or the Balochie areas in southern and southeastern Iran they could begin to pull the country apart province by province and that I'm not sure something the revolutionary guard contemplated but there I think there are a lot of things going on.

Behind the scenes you know we hear of every bomb and every drone that drops outside of Iran because there are reporters all over the region there aren't exactly a lot of Western reporters roaming around Iran telling us what's going on but what I hear via people who have contacts inside is that that by and large the people of Iran who are deeply opposed to this regime understand that the bombing is directly targeted at the revolutionary guard and it's a city.

It's not indiscriminate and they're hoping we provide the opposition more assistance so that they can help overthrow the regime. I hope we don't miss this opportunity just by not doing enough with the people inside Iran.

Yeah, the president said the other day that you know the one size got guns and the other one doesn't mean sort of left that comment slightly open ended.

Is it your understanding of your suspicion that you know say I will be arming people one now.

Well, I think we should be honestly that there was talk of arming the Kurds. I think the Kurds of the one group inside Iran that probably have a sufficiency of weapons from their brothers across the border in Iraq and Turkey.

But there are others I think the Azerbaijan population have mentioned the Balochies the Arab population but look Persians themselves are overwhelmingly against this regime.

It's deeply unpopular it's weaker than it's been at any point since it took power in 1979 and and and really this this this is the opportunity we may not get another one if the regime survives like a wounded animal.

The repression against its own citizens will be the first thing they do and the next thing they do will be to rebuild the nuclear program in the terrorist organizations.

Given how many times the Kurds have got us out of the mess in the last 20 years we really do start to owe those guys something they you know from Syria to Libya.

They are they are they are they are strong allies aren't they.

Yeah well it goes back to the Treaty of Versailles when the US and Europeans carved up the Ottoman Empire unless the Kurds were not a nation so it really is a western problem.

I have a long thought there should be an independent Kurdish state I'm not advocating breaking up Iran we got to come to a reckoning on this at some point for the Kurds.

I mean we kind of we kind of owe them one at this break given 30 years of solid of solid conflict on the good guys on the good guys side.

I'm just on a personal level I know you you've been long advocating the you know a much tougher line on Iran and and regime change.

You must feel slightly conflicted though because obviously you don't feel that this is going as perhaps to plan or it could have been done a lot better.

Where are you where are you on the wars it's still are you still in the position of this was worth it.

The objective of regime changes unquestionably the correct objective and I think we're certainly causing a lot of damage to key assets the regime has.

But I think it's inevitable if it stays in place it will rebuild and will remain a threat.

So I'm in the difficult position of supporting Trump in the sense that I think he did the right thing but very worried that he's not going to carry it through or hasn't done adequate planning and preparation in several critical areas.

Again I would underline not giving enough assistance not coordinating effectively enough with the opposition being the key defect at this point.

And can you envision a situation with the president did you know sort of withdraw from the conflict the Israelis carry on.

Well look Trump could be declaring total victory as we speak he's perfectly capable of doing it I've heard different things from Israelis I think the most common thing I've heard is Trump started the war and Trump's going to end the war.

The Israelis they will want to continue I mean if Trump lets them I think they will but but but it depends on Trump he's the one who stopped the 12-day war.

The Israelis had a much longer target list in the summer of last year but he said after the one-day American war that's it I'm done and so was the Israelis.

And finally I'd like to get your reaction to a breaking news story this morning in in the UK an Iranian citizen has been detained and arrested along with another woman in her 30s attempting to break into Faslane.

Faslane naval base which you all know and perhaps our readers and listeners will know is the home of British nuclear deterrent it's a home of our nuclear submarines.

A fairly brazen act at the time of heightened tension.

Well look I think Iran has terrorist and espionage capabilities across Europe across North America.

I think we should all be on a heightened state of alert and I think given the pummeling that the Iranians are taking their resort to asymmetric warfare particularly terrorist acts is almost guaranteed.

And given the fact that the British Prime Minister said that there was no direct threat from Iran has as a reason for sitting out those initial strikes and in fact not just sitting out actively hampering them by blocking the use of Diego Garcia.

I mean he looks slightly ridiculous when you've got you know our nuclear deterrent our nuclear submarines directly being targeted by the Iranians.

Yeah I know I know he's a favorite target of Trump's now but I do think he's made a lot of mistakes I think this idea that somehow this is not Europe's war certainly to say it's not the UK's war is just wrong.

This affects all of us as we can see from the impact on the global economy and the Iranian nuclear threat is much more imminent for Europe given its limited missile capabilities than it is for the US.

I hope Starmer changes his mind we need British participation in this offensively as well as defensively.

Not least you know prescribing the Iranian Revolution regard who still have diplomatic status in the United Kingdom surely.

Yeah I mean we took a struggle even in the first Trump term to have them declared a foreign terrorist organization but they absolutely are that's what their purpose is.

Do you fear that we will see more of this across the West as you know as the Iranians become more desperate as you say we will see all sorts of perhaps more sleepers is probably wrong the wrong phrase but these are the sort of slightly gray attacks popping up across you know cross countries like Britain.

Yeah I think there are a lot of lone wolf so called the potentials people who watch this on the internet but I also know from my own experience that the Iranians are capable of trying to hire hitmen to assassinate people they want to.

Eliminate and their terrorist capabilities have been honed through Hamas hezbollah the hoodies the shea militia in Iraq this is a very dangerous option.

Ambassador John Bolton thank you for what now our week three updates on the war in Iran let's see and let's see where we are next Friday.

Stay with Joey.

Okay thanks for having me.

Thanks Ambassador.

Thank you.