Texas Votes: Crockett vs. Talarico! How MAGA Will Texas Go?

What's up everybody? It's an election night. I love an election night

I used to really love election nights until Donald Trump started winning elections and they're a little triggering now

But I do I do still love them deep down inside. I'm Tim Miller. I'm here at Sarah Longwell publisher of the Bullwork JBL

Editor author of the Triad newsletter love our girl Lauren Egan coming in here in a little bit

She's been covering the Dems and we just want to do a live

Live podcast live streaming with you on a big election night

Set the table here

Big win for the eight-year-old girls basketball team. I go to honey bad just tonight. I don't know. It's what you guys agree to hear about

It's been a tough season, but things are clicking right as we get to play off. I'm okay anyway. Tim's working the refs

That's why I was working

I was working the rest and it was working baby. We got a big W tonight. Okay on to the actual news. You're here for the

The Texas Senate race is on both sides is the one that we're most focused on the a couple other races

We're monitoring

Returns are coming in on both the Republican and the Democratic side

We had a delay. I guess the big news of the night is that in Dallas County

They're probably don't know how to run elections. They don't care. I don't know if this is this kind of news to you guys

But in Dallas County, that was like mass voter confusion

One of my buddies lives there. So I was texting about it. It's like the the vote at the election site was down

If you the a lot of places where people usually went to vote you want a lot to vote there

Because they changed the rules. You had to go to your precinct and a lot of people will try to vote weren't able to so they extended it now or

I think that in particular. I think jasmine krakens campaign is interested in that because it's our home base

It's our base of support in Dallas

So that might delay us a little bit tonight. That's the big news

The early results here

We're looking pretty favorable for James telerico just to be blunt

Not over yet

But if you look at the kalshi prediction markets

They basically called it for telerico already Dave Wasserman over at this

Over at Kirk political

Is very sober mind that he says it's looking like telerico the broad swaths of that and then I'll go you guys kind of weigh in

Is krakens continues to be well with a voting base of black voters older black voters in particular

She's doing well in a lot of counties that Joe Biden did well in in the 2020 Texas primary where he

Beat uh Bernie, but it was a more of a those a bigger field right so a lot of other other other vote was

fractured

Talrico is doing well as expected like around austin. He's running upside down. He's saying numbers in austin

He's up 7623 there right now

And in and in west Texas that austin to San Antonio area

The interesting thing is houston was one we were wondering another urban area

You know a lot of black voters in houston that also out of college educated voters

Obsused with big kind of fault line here. Talrico is down in houston, but it's a lot closer than I think people thought

And then the other group of Hispanic voters

Along the Rio Grande Valley and they're a little later to come in, but

Earlier results seem to indicate that Talrico is doing well among

Hispanic voters

So that is kind of where we're at to start any big takes from you guys on

What why this matters what you're seeing

I guess maybe I want you to go first because you kind of wrote about why this matter

so this total

Okay

If it plays out the way we think it is

Total vindication for the Tim Miller Sarah Longwell view of democratic politics going forward

For people who are not maybe regular viewers of this

Tim Miller has been saying Democrats got to try doing different things

Everywhere Sarah Longwell has been saying

Got to speak to Trump voters got to try to meet them where they are

Speak their language

Maybe lead with faith at some point

and

Talrico did this

And Jasmine Crockett did something different too now what she did wasn't

Very effective. Maybe it turns out

But she tried running like a shit poster like hey, I'm just gonna go for low info voters and try to turn that out

And it seems to have not worked

But that's good

It's good to try these things. It is good to run the experiments and

What I most wanted I just didn't want like a 49.8 to

We might still get that yeah, I would not say yeah, we might

But it looks like we're gonna get like a clean result and

Not not a dusty finish as they would call it in wrestling but but a clean win

And it's good to have tried an experiment in real time and have gotten a verdict on it

And not to just have had like

Two or three candidates were all indistinguishable from one another running in the same way

Yeah, let me talk a little bit about why it matters like big picture

So people watching this live stream are probably political nerds

So this might be a little basic, but I do just want to lay out the fact that

Texas has been like a desperation

Reach state for Democrats for so long

They thought they could get somewhere with Beto against Ted Cruz. It didn't work

Collin all red didn't work just hasn't worked in Texas. However, the Republicans much like they did in 2022

Seem primed to nominate back onto the Republicans yet, but there is a strong chance

That they might nominate a guy named Ken Paxton who has more baggage than Tim Miller on a trip to Europe

It is I don't know do you pack a lot to go. It's guess it's all speedos and stuff. I don't know

Uh

You're muted dude

I was coughing. I thought that was me. I'm just gonna move on what I thought that was I shouldn't say so you just keep going

Lot of baggage Ken Paxton

You know and not he's there's been a lot like the tabloidie stuff with uh his wife and affairs and things like that

But that's not it's also like a ton of corruption this guy was actually he was um impeached by his own state at one point

He leads with his faith to just like James style recall though. There's a few problems

With that and so his wife

divorced him not that long ago saying that he had offended their spiritual

home and arrangement so

In a year

Where Republican enthusiasm might be at its absolute lowest point with a

Candidate quality problem on the Republican side

It is the closest opportunity Democrats have had in a really long time to pick up a senate seat in Texas

In a at a moment when that could be the difference between Democrats

Being even

Doug Jones versus Roy Moore. That's right. It's a big race. It's a big race

And so who the person is on the Democratic side is

Very important and so you're testing and what I like about. I've really liked this Texas primary

Even though it's been kind of ugly at a national level doing the focus groups with Democrats

Was actually a bit of a relief. I don't know if you guys listen to the episode, but

Democrats in Texas were like I'm making a big announcement

I'm getting back on the focus group podcast right now

I had to take a year off because I just couldn't hear the voters. I was too mad at them

But I should have listened to the Texas primary when I feel bad

I did end right now and I'm getting back on starting this Saturday

Sorry, continue. I can't believe it because you know what they you know

So we were talking about what a nasty race it's been

They liked both of them

70% approval for both of them. They were not really tracking like the

All of the drama that yeah the online stuff they were like on one side

We got Jasmine Crockett. She's fiery. She's authentic. She goes hard. She's a fighter

I love that on the other side. We've got James Talrico who talks about faith, which is so good in Texas

and so

If Talrico pulls this out

I think what you're going to see is the divide between black voters and Hispanic voters like we already see this

We got guy named Talrico. We've got a black woman in the race and so blacks and Hispanics are

Seems to be lining up. Telleriko just because his name and the end of the valve. I'm not actually Hispanic

I know, but this is this is this is I know but this is everybody is talking about the Hispanic. Yeah black

Like Hispanics are going for Talrico. Yeah, Taloriko

Uh, it's one of my people. Yeah, is he's just Catholic

Uh, you know, that's the first in Davis County in Texas. Can you just let me finish this and then I'm not going to see that much more, okay?

So then

Where it goes is going to be down to a lot of the like

white Democrats in Texas and here's the thing about the white Democrats in Texas

They I don't think have as much of a dog in the fight as it seems like Hispanics and black voters do

They want to win and so this became for those voters and electability conversation

Who do they think could potentially beat Ken Paxton and if this goes the way it looks like it's going to go

With Taloriko winning. It's because they decided he was the more electable candidate probably not that they liked him better

But that he had a better chance of beating Ken Paxton in a general election

I want to de-racialify that a little bit because I think that just we've learned a lot

Over the last six years in particular the Democratic primary voters overall are pragmatic

Overall, they're pragmatic. They're more pragmatic than Republicans. It doesn't mean that they won't

Pick the more lefty candidate. I you know, we've even talked about the main race earlier today

And so people say well if general voters are pragmatic. Why isn't Janet Mills doing better?

I think that they're pragmatically making a bet maybe they're wrong

But I think that they think that grand partner would actually be a stronger candidate in the general because

Of the way he codes is a working class guy because they tried Sarah Gideon last time she lost

They don't want a boring old person. They so the democratic voters care a lot more about electability in their primary

It's a higher education audience. It's a higher engaged audience a higher news watching audience and and you know

This is our boy Lakshadjane over at split ticket and he's saying that jasmine carcass basically under performing everywhere and

Obviously she's doing better and black counties and closer to home counties

But like based on the baseline of what they thought that she was going to do she seems to be underperforming everywhere and

You know, and so I look I think that the Hispanic voters are also being pragmatic

And again despite that taleriko sounds a little more Hispanic. He's just a white guy. He's just a pastor

So I don't know that there's a big racial affinity there

I think that folks who are looking at this and saying look this guy

We've talked about their religious aspect. He goes on Fox. He went on Joe Rogan

He at least has a theory of the case for talking to Trump voters

This is my big thing about cracking all time. She didn't even offer a theory of the case for what her message was to them

Those days go like fuck you Trump voters and we'll see what happens

We maybe that would have worked. It seems like we're not going to know. We don't know for sure

But I just think that there's a lot you see this across the board now for violent democratic primaries a lot of pragmatism

I hate to bring up old wounds, but

It's kind of why some of us thought there should have been a primary in the 24 presidential campaign

So do you think the democratic voters would have been pragmatic about that? But anyway

We'll continue to monitor that as it goes on over to the Republican side unless javiel you don't think that but

No, I agree completely

I think on the Republican side we are probably probably headed towards a runoff

You got to get 50% there were three candidates on the Republican Senate side john cornon

Ken Paxson and Wesley Hunt was the third candidate um Sarah talked about Ken Paxson's baggage

earlier

I the relevance of I think the result in this primary is a lot of people are saying if Ken Paxon won by a lot then maybe

Then maybe the runoff would kind of be pro forma because Trump would endorse him and

That's not happening right now right now john cornon's up by about 4%

It looks like there's a lot of vote not out out of vote out uncounted out in rural Texas

And he kind of like look at the map here

You know cornon is is doing a little better in the suburbs and and

Paxson's doing better out and kind of excerpt

So we'll see how that goes

I think it's possible that Paxson could run up the score in some of these other counties

So it doesn't look like Houston's and either so

TVD on that couple other things to monitor on the Republican side that are a little bit of fun for everybody

Um, well ones kind of dark, but the other ones are kind of fun. Um Dan Crenshaw

um

He's got a primary from the right

I made a suggestion to a couple of bull and I was like look if you're a bullwark podcast

Let's turn you live in Houston and you don't have a dog in the Senate race

Maybe consider pulling the Republican ballot and voting against Dan Crenshaw just for kicks right now

He's down 53 to 44

To a man named

Steve Toath that I'm just going to be honest. I don't know much about

But he cannot possibly be as smug and condescending and annoying as Dan Crenshaw

So we'll keep an eye on that. That's early. It's really only 28% of voting. It's a sham Crenshaw podcast

The sham it exists already. I was doing worse than mine the sham wow guy

Is also running in a primary that's a lecture you monitor

Uh, yeah, there's a big issue that they wouldn't let him put his name sham wow

On the thing on the ballot. So he's mad about that

Thinks of the steel and then Tony Gonzalez

Um, who is the uh congressman who's

Uh, go more set herself on fire

Um, he is also in a primary. He's up 1.4% so

That's kind of what we're watching on the Republican side. Anything I miss there you want to talk about on the Republican sides here

Did you hit North Carolina

No, so I don't often why don't you talk about North Carolina? Yeah. Yeah. So Mike Wattley

His one the Republican primary in North Carolina, which means he is going to face off against

The guy who's going to beat him

Whose name I don't know. I'm just blanking on right now anybody got it right Cooper. Thank you

Um, so that's the only other one. I'm really watching. I do want to

Uh, go back to the Texas Senate race for just one second. Yeah

Um, because I was seeing some chatter in the comments about how like running to the center doesn't work

And I'm interested in that comment because I am wondering

Which candidate they mean

Because one of the interesting things about the Texas Senate race is that I think people think

That Jasmine Crockett is the more progressive candidate in the race, but she is not

um

She is the more just as a strict policy matter or a strict establishment democratic matter

Jasmine Crockett's pretty like establishment Democrat uh, and James Tauriko is I think sort of the more progressive one when it comes to

Actual policy beliefs and so

I don't know who they think is running to the center. I do think

It's probably fair to say some people think Tauriko codes

More center because he seems more temperamentally moderate. Yeah, like some people think he's a little more boring

I heard this in the focus groups that some people thought he was a little milk toast and she was just more like fiery add more passion

Um, yeah, I also say that's just wrong. I hate when people make uh, just blanket statements like that

I do think there's just like really big online thing where like it's like a big fight between moderates and progressives

And it's just like you know, sometimes the progressives are sometimes the moderates are right

I hate to bring that you know, bring it down like that

But it running to the center does help sometimes Ruben Greggo who had on the pod today

ran to the center on immigration

and outperformed

Kamala Harris by like

12 points and ended up winning his Senate race while she lives in Arizona

Those in Arizona right so it made sense for him to do that

You know, we're talking about at Platner like Platner is kind of running to the left

It's a populous left. I think that makes sense right so um

You know, they don't there's never uh

Folks that say that's running so the center never works. They don't ever offer that same opinion when it's their Republican side

So I think it's important to make sure you just for a thought exercise if you think it never works

Think about a Republican primary like do you think that Republicans benefited from having carry lake

Is there nominee in Arizona versus having like a more boring moderate person?

I don't like I think that they and so you know at the presidential level things are very

And so I just I would encourage you personally you can't necessarily map

presidential politics

In a swing state where there's all this national attention onto what's happening and like a Texas center race like the dynamics of it are quite different

Yeah, but also Donald Trump people thought he coded as a moderate. They thought he was moderate on social issues

Because he was moderate on social issues and spending and war and spending and you know

He was I'm gonna save Medicare so security like didn't turn out to happen on war

But he did run to the center on war just he didn't end up doing it

He said it

He said it we all saw the truth but some of the voters didn't so you know, there's maybe some lessons to learn from that

Okay, more results coming in telleriko

Now 52% to crock at 46 and we're not gonna really know

Until we get to Dallas

And see what happens out of Dallas, but signs are are are looking towards crock at one other thing

I sort of mentioned on house primaries a couple other races were monitoring and well you guys you guys shoot out questions to us

You can shoot super chat to us for on YouTube or questions on sub stack

a couple other primaries. I sort of mentioned

Valerie Fouche

And is it Fouche your Fouche? I don't know if I'm giving that right

She is a North Carolina Democrat that was supported by APAC and had kind of a left challenger

Lots of events that she's looking okay so far

Al green who's more of kind of an establishment Democrat that's

Has basically complained about him is that he's old very old. He has a younger

Challenger. I think also slightly to the left

But that raises basically mapping along a generational lines and green seems like he's in trouble. It's a Texas Democrat

Um

So Al green and Dan Crenshaw and maybe Tony Gonzalez in the house on on the ropes a little bit

Sorry, sorry, are we trying to chime in on something? I wasn't no

um

Yeah, so cover yeah hyper driven here Taloriko Codesmore Center and appeals more to the Latinos

Yeah, I think that there is something to that, but we'll see in a pride

We'll see how that plays out in a general. I mean he's that he hasn't

Taloriko has not really in any meaningful way

actually taken

Like centrist positions as he is there something that I'm missing well, I mean

Talking about Jesus Codes as centrist

Right sure and but I'm in actual issues

Right, well, but here's my question for you guys

Is it possible the Taloriko could help

Some people understand that uh if you take the Jesus stuff seriously, it's both based and woke

Like I mean this is one of the things I've spent the last decade sitting around going is like

this

Christian nationalism stuff has fuck all to do with Jesus and if you

I mean if you just look at all the Catholic doctrine and then I understand christianne is born just got policies and sort of um

like it's uh

You know

It's awfully woke all the woke stuff is in there feed the hungry

Clothe the naked comfort the prisoner like it I you know this is all that new covenant stuff

It does not mesh well with what

Is political Christianity in America

Yeah, I think that's right. I also just think um

It would be helpful because one of the things I know listening to the focus groups is while democrats don't lead with their faith

They're plenty faithful um like if you start if you bring up religion

Lots of democrats will speak to it, but if you talk to republicans and ask them why are you a republican

They will point to their faith as a central reason

Uh, which I think confuses people as to how somebody could you know vote for Donald Trump if they're a Christian

But if your entire

Culture has intertwined your Christianity with your political identity and your identity is like deeply rooted

That holds up better to change than democrats who are say I'm a democrat because I believe in xyz

Because then if a candidate doesn't do xyz you get mad and maybe don't vote for them

Whereas republicans are willing to vote for

Anybody who shares that identity even if they don't share the faithfulness

Um, Nick Nicholas so speaking of coding uh, JBL is coding a piscopalian

Which that's fired shot fired big time. Yeah

Wow

libass JBL coding a piscopalian

Thanks really that's those are her words

The uh

Tell here's the other thing about teller you teller you came into a lot of people's consciousness

I'm pretty sure

By he went on Fox and he had a huge viral mo with Pete Hegseth going after Pete Hegseth

The current secretary more who was at the time a co-host on a weekend talk show and James

Was trying to get him to say who won the 2020 election, which is a good good gambit

And then he goes on Rogan and Rogan by all counts like so

And like says nice things about it

Which like you know shows you the benefit of like trying um and

Uh, you know showing up a lot of these guys. It's another thing that got an always annoyed man people and people like the democrats

She can go on those things because they have bad opinions. It's like all these guys are stupid

I was about to say the R word, you know

A lot of them are very dumb

And it's like if you're smart

What James telleriko you can sit there for two hours of Joe Rogan runs circles

It's not that hard

To win some people over um reago says a Cooper or one of the dams and has lost him in Texas win the general election

Are they the front runner for 2028?

I don't think that Roy Cooper is going to be in the 2028 mix um god love him

I who the hell knows though. I mean, I think the telleriko there'd be a lot of um

Lot of pressure on him not to run

Because yeah, the democrats finally win in Texas finally in Texas statement. You give up the senate seat that said

I don't know a lot of people told Barack Hussein Obama that he should wait for Hillary Clinton

We saw how that turned out so sometimes waiting

Yeah, you know, what that was an Illinois Senate

If you want a good Christian democratic and speak to his faith you can go get Raphael Warnock

I like Raphael Warnock

Uh, we're getting Lauren Egan's going to come on here in a minute

Let me just peek up here at the latest on the numbers. We're still

Uh Ken Paxson is closing the gap a little bit with Cornyn. So that's something that we'll monitor

Uh, and telleriko's expanding if we don't interest in the Cornyn Paxson race. Yes

Paxton uh here here's so I and this is this is a change for you. It is

This is back to 2060 boy. It's a book. I want to hear so

Look, I think that this is this is the only way a democrat wins the seat is if Ken Paxson is the nominee

And I would like a democrat to win the seat and I think I have made this case now

I think one of the big shifts for me was there was a period of time

When what you needed were sort of reasonable Republicans to stand up to Trump during the first term right

And so I was like, yeah, you know, we should we should be trying to elect

sensible saying Republicans, but they all got run out of the party like out on a rail and

At this point the moderate Republicans Susan Collins

And not even to just like establishment Republicans like old-score Republicans

Not only do they not stand up to Trump, but they do a tepid

Korean favor of Trump like Cornyn has done his best to butcher up like he did an ad where he's like reading the art of the deal

And I would rather the Republican party just show people who they are they are hypocrites and

And I but you know, I think this now, but like I I think

It you should be who they are and Ken Paxson perfectly reflects what Republicans want

Stellarationist Sarah is the best Sarah. This is not an accelerationist. Uh, this is this is a what is more than better on

I got that's the thing I come down to

It's it was like show me something that John Cornyn has voted on that

Was very meaningful that Ken Paxson wouldn't have to to contain Trump. He hasn't so fuck him

Well, and this is this is I would say this speaks to

Something you have said many times Tim

Which is that maybe if the grown-ups hadn't been in the room and Trump won we wouldn't have had Trump too

Right like all of the people are like well, I got to be in the room to stop the worst stuff

And I'll take the really crazy shit off his desk

Maybe if they hadn't done that and we could have just had the real full Trump and Trump won we wouldn't have be here now

Maybe we saw plenty of full Trump

Uh, I mean he tried to overthrow the election

Yeah, he had a lot of great he had a lot of crazy ideas that he didn't get to execute on but you know, sure fair enough

And it's a weaker argument now that he got elected after January 6th. I will I will say

Yeah, this is just there is remains a theory out there that like you should be protecting

Uh, what's his thoughts who he voted to impeach Trump, but then he used it

Cassidy right like oh, we should protect him from a from a tough Republican primary because the other person's gonna be more mega

And you're like

What's the difference? What's the difference between Cassidy and this other person now?

You can look backwards and say Cassidy was willing to

impeach him

But if you look at everything since then Cassidy has done everything Trump wants in order to try to win this election

And I would rather just dispense with the

Farce dispense with the K-fabe as JVL would say

Um, I want it before you go

Throw oh, yeah, I think you wouldn't you know what go ahead you say it because we're gonna say the same thing

I have a schmoment just I'm just gonna sit here

They call a cruncher. No, I haven't called it yet, but mr. Toath is beating

Dan and I'm not gonna comment on any of how Dan looks

So I'm just gonna enjoy it mr. Toath is beating Dan cruncher by 20 points with 60% in

So not called yet, but they're not looking great for old Danny Danny C

Oh, could somebody find me on the producer side that was this there's a sad video of Dan cruncher

He used to act like he was an independent Republican. This is right. I'm not sure I was just talking about

And when he decided to throw all in with Trump, he was at like a TP USA event

And he was sitting down in the front row like screaming like mr. Trump. Please sign my

Please sign my boobs like he was shouting at him. That was very sad

Let's let's do a low light real Dan crunch off. We could effort that. Let's bring in Lauren Egan

What we try to find

Uh some of the most embarrassing moments of Dan cruncher. Maybe a highlight reel with the time being Dan cruncher

Debate at each other. Maybe maybe should we watch me should we watch highlight reel me? I don't know. We'll see how things go

uh

Lauren what I want to get your take on this democratic center. He's looking good for Telleriko

I had mentioned kind of him going into the lion's den is something that

Separated him and draw a lot of attention him doing Rogan and Fox

Also social media game those been pretty legit. Why don't you kind of talk about what you think explains

How Telleriko's position himself

Yeah, he was kind of a no name person even just a few months ago

I remember the first i think like a year ago sam and i were slacking about like how do we pronounce this guy's name

And now everyone knows him um

But he really started to catch people's attention off of his tiktok and instagram when we're talking about the attention economy

He's kind of one of these early democrats who really demonstrated that you knew how to master it

He went viral a lot for his speeches on the house floor

Especially in his opposition to the school voucher movement in texas

And i think what's interesting about his social media stuff

I mean, it's kind of different from what we've seen with mom donny. It's not super gimmicky

There's not like a halal cart involved or things like that. It's oftentimes him speaking

From the state house

oftentimes him talking about scripture talking about his faith and how he relates it to politics

And it just really took off these has millions of followers on tiktok

and instagram and

Someone ended up sending one of his tiktoks to joe rogan like one of joe rogan's friends

It was basically like hey, you've got to have this guy on your show. So long story short

Telleriko goes on the joe rogan show last summer and that's kind of what kick started his whole campaign

He announced he's running for a senate just a couple weeks after that

Talked to us about how seriously the democrats are taking this and looking at the prediction

Markets here and

Yeah, we there's no sense overreacting to that but it's it's a data point

And just tonight as these results are coming in you see texas senate winner republican or democrat

The republican number has gone

You know from like 80% down to 65 like you start to see the red line going down the blue line going up as it looks

possible that it's a taleriko verse paxed in race

Is this like a social media buzz thing?

A lot of us like to talk about it but the actual dsc the democratic campaign folks are more like interested in other states

Or do they think it's real?

It's not anything. It's real is not on the top tier list of states

This was i mean when shumer and the dscc were laying out their top tier the states that they had to win

This was not on it. I when i talked to shumer a couple weeks ago about texas

He basically said well, we're gonna wait and see what happens in the primary

We'll make our decision about how much we want to get involved and how much money we want to put into the state

Until we see who these winners are

Obviously they were watching to see who the republican winner was and the democratic nominee as well

I think that if this ends up being a paxed and taleriko race which

Early signs indicate that that's potentially where we're headed

Democrats are gonna feel a lot more bullish about this race

But it's this is still i mean we say this every cycle. This is still a really hard state

For democrats to win in so i think the difficult thing for the party now is they're gonna have to decide

Just how much do they actually throw into the state and invest when their path back to the senate has to include places like

Ohio potentially Iowa, Alaska, North Carolina, and then texas is really on that like be list of of states

Yeah, I mean Ohio and texas could end up flopping. I don't know

Sarah don't want to get your chime in just on the democratic wave

Thing in these random races. Oh, there's also Arkansas tonight. So random house district. It's north of

Little Rock

But in the election in 24 the republican won narrowly in this kind of little rock suburb

149 special election right now the democrat is

Shalonging the republican like 63 to 36 and they're about to call it so you know just things like that

It's just whatever and it's just that it's just an Arkansas special but a 30 point swing is in line with kind of the stuff

You've we've been seeing yeah, and i think republicans have noticed this right they've noticed that in every special election

This is not it's not look you can one race

I think it was desantis who came out and said hey, I think we should be worried about this. We're seeing

15 20 30 point swings in every single special election and it speaks to two things one

increased democratic enthusiasm and two decreased republican enthusiasm

And also and I think it's worth just making this point every time we talk about the midterms

But the fact that republicans

Uh

Have

Sorry somebody else go. I just lost my turn. I thought I have to come back to it. Lauren you go

The chat yeah, I look at the chat. Why are you looking at the chat?

I know I know I get it. I'm gonna turn it off. I gotta turn it off

Too many did I'm I'm I'm sorry. Sorry. I'm sorry. I got it back. Sorry. It's that the people who are turning out in the midterms

right are

The low propensity voters who vote for Donald Trump

Are not midterm voters. Sorry. That is just the big overarching thing

We want to say every single time that Democrats now have a structural advantage in off years

That republicans used to have but no longer do

Um, we were mentioning the tiktok so it live and uh, we want to trigger Sarah a little bit on this one

So there was an issue uh, that James Talleriko got a lot of momentum on that um

It's I think maybe contrast Sarah's priors. That's good. We like we like to be honest about our views around here

Maybe even counter JVL's let's watch it. It's James Talleriko

As one of his first viral videos on tiktok

Just like any scam

vouchers may sound good

But once you dig into the details you realize they're ripping you off

A voucher is any program that takes our hard-earned tax dollars out of our underfunded public schools and gives them

To unaccountable private schools. It's not a popular idea

And that's why voucher proponents have had to come up with a bunch of new slogans to sell their scam

Let's walk through each one

First that's not great um, you get the gist you get the gist of 1.1 million views

Another thing he's been hitting on is um

Talking about the tops versus the bottoms. It's kind of different than how we discuss it at odds

In the friddle in New Orleans you got that dim

Yeah, but he's he's talking about the income bracket. Okay, not anything sexual. So get your head out of the gutter

But um

He has I think incorporated

A lot of like the populist left economic stuff

Into you know more of that kind of moderate cultural

Attitude and is that I mean and and that's it's good. I mean everybody's doing that now at some level

But but I think he he's really done a good job of focusing on it

And I think they separated himself from jasmine on that focus. I don't know lord if that feels right to you

Yeah, I mean this race is so interesting because it's hard to

Like put any of them into boxes that there's a lot of cross-cutting dynamics on him moderating culturally

I mean in some ways yes because

Thank you guys mentioned this earlier the

He talks about religion. It's so central to who he is that he kind of codes is a bit moderate

But he's really not on things like abortion

um

You know he

Kind of got criticized early on in the primary. Do you guys remember Terry vert? He was running in this primary

I like Terry for it. It's Austria. I'll ask around. He's in a primary tonight. Let's check him on Terry

You keep talking the house race now. Yeah, but he was in the senate race and he dropped out but he

um

He released an attack ad basically on telleriko pulled up some of his old

florist speeches that he made saying that god is by non-binary that there

Sixth genders or something like that and you can understand what telleriko might have been trying to say

Intellectually, but Terry vert's whole thing was telleriko is actually too far left

He's too progressive for a state that's as red and moderate or red and conservative as texas

So that's what I think is kind of fascinating about this race is you just he's

Causes moderate, but he's really not and you can't put any of them in this neat ideological boxes at all

One other democratic race we've not mentioned tonight

Which gained a little bit of interest because of the way that he inserted himself into the senate race is

The house

Distracted with 33 in the Dallas suburbs. I think it's the district the George W. Bush lives in and that's calling all red and Julie Johnson

um

And it's two because of this redistricting nonsense

You know two democrats got thrown in together think the initial thinking I think is that all red was gonna be a favorite there

But he like in a very weird way

Like inserted himself into the telleriko crocodile feud in a way that I think bugged a lot of people

Nothing there yet because that is in Dallas

So we'll see in about 20 minutes start to get some some numbers out of there

What are what are what are one of the democratic whispers on that race anything Lauren or Sarah you guys hearing anything on that race?

I think people were feeling pretty down on all red going into this

Which is interesting just how much his sort of stock and the party is plummeted in the past couple weeks

I mean after a lot of that his whole back and forth with telleriko

um and the crocket campaign

That was when the influencer there was an influencer in texas

Who basically um accused telleriko of saying that

All red was a mediocre black man and it created this whole identity conversation

She kind of

Missed represented about telleriko is saying he was trying to say that all red was running a mediocre campaign

Which I think is a fair statement to make considering he's no longer in the senate race um and

Crocket and all red I think kind of cynically tried to paint telleriko is being racist um

In this race, and I think that kind of backfired in some ways

I don't think that that was really um taken very well

In some corners of the party and um you saw some folks kind of come out and

um

Endorse johnson in these past couple weeks um so

Sure, so we'll watch that jade debatio says the telleriko is a white marakus a nobama

You got any takes on that that would go to my theory that he just you win and you run

Any i i want to revisit this i know i know that people would not want him to leave the texas senate seat

But the democrats do not have a frontrunner if somebody one texas it might be there might the momentum might be too hard to stop

I kind of feel that way about plan or in main. I don't i

The nobody the thing is not the field is not lighting anybody on fire

The field is not lighting anybody on fire. That's all it's 940 on March 3 and Tim is not throwing guys

One there are primaries yet protecting them out too

Also, I just telleriko

I think there's some there's gonna be a buzz candidate. It's gonna come from somewhere

Um, it's not gonna be the guy with the nazi tattoo

He might he might be able to pull it out in Maine, but I don't think it's that's gonna be the

I don't know about Sarah. I don't know about that. Okay. Can I just say julie johnson? Yeah, part of the lesbian phone tree

uh

No, er, liker. She's gonna be great

What happens on the lesbian phone tree? Is that like do you share notes on scissoring or like?

No, you can just you can just find any lesbian so like if you have if you have like a core group

From there you can find anyone like jvl said

Sarah, I need to find Allison Bechtel and what happened like minutes?

Boom

Um

Ann asked how happy I am the krenshaw might list. I do I'm hoping that

The no, it's been called tim. It's been called it

Dave Wasserman has called it. Wasserman has called it. Are you sure?

I need to see it myself. I need to see it myself. We need to do. We have a sound effects. I wind up

Steve Toff defeats representative Dan krenshaw in the texas 02 gop primary

Bring me a high noon. I'm contacting downstairs. I'm gonna have a victory cocktail

Let me tell you

The redistricting last year did krenshaw know favors

So krenshaw got fucked by his own texas state Republican party

Well, that's a shame

First of all, that's the kind of smoke people deserve for them starting this

They set off that whole arms race on that but but but krenshaw is a perfect example

Of this like corn and phenomenon that I was talking about. It is somebody who

Does not like Donald Trump, but does not like maga. It's not who he was

It's not who we wanted to be when his career in his career when he got into politics

But he made his accommodations and he wound up in the sour spot with voters where he's not

Maga enough for the people who really want maga and he's not sincere

Or like able to own his space enough to bring over dem voters or build a big coalition

Bye-bye Dan krenshaw. You were one of the people who

Did all the accommodating and this is where it got you. Somebody's phone's buzzed on their desk

I am I'm waiting for my victory drink waiting for my victory drink

Luckily, I think that there's some viewers of this live stream downstairs at my house nice to live stream at your house. Yeah, Lauren

Yeah, she's still relatively new here. I don't know their announcement, but sure Lauren

What feels better seeing a good candidate when we're seeing a terrible candidate lose

There's only one right answer to this

Whoa only one right answer

For me personally, it's seeing a terrible candidate lose. Yes, that's really satisfying

Surely satisfying, but that does speak I think to the cynicism of our time

I do think people have had a different answer about that in 2008 and that does

It does make me kind of sad

Well good riddance old Dan krenshaw

The other announcement is that it seems like

We don't really have a call on the Republican side of the Texas race

We have a call that will go to a runoff

I still think it's pretty relevant whether Ken Paxson can pick up enough ground here to pass Corden. There's just something

I don't know. There's something vibes ish about winning the first round. It doesn't

Guarantee anything in the second round of a primary, but especially in a race like this

It's basically a head to head and you've a third candidate. It's like kind of different if there's a coalition

But um, I think that's meaningful. What is hunt is good to the right of ever of these guys? What's these hunters? It's typical kind of mega

So, uh, that's nice. I was good riddance Dan krenshaw

Uh, break. We'll see you on the podcast charts. We'll be losing again

I was talking to the show

And heard you call for it

If anybody's listening, I would like a drink

Uh, Mary's on his way over to your house right now. Here's the thing about hunt

He was actually kind of a normal guy like a normie Republican until he decided he needed to get into this race

And he became a super mega like I love Trump like he just went, you know, and it

And it gave him just enough juice to force these other two into a runoff, which I got to say

There is also something that you can take pleasure from here

Which is not only his cornon already spent more on this Republican primary

Than basically any other Republican in the history of Republican Senate primaries

Now a Republican Democrat or sorry Republican donors have to fund a runoff

Uh, and that's a lot of money for Republicans to have to spend in a primary

And then a runoff

probably for Ken Paxton to win uh, and then

Do it all over again. Yeah, do it all over again. Cornon spent I believe 69 million nice uh in the primary on TV

Which is a hell of a lot and they got a couple more months now

And I think they will feel like they'll have to fund him

You know just you know, because making the bet

I guess that you save money on the back end in theory not having to try to bail out Paxton because these guys all bail out Paxton because they have no they have no morals but

Um, it is definitely

Wasted resources and a lot of the mega Republicans have noticed us. I've seen this in my feed

This could like like they're getting hit from both sides um, where like mega Republicans are like why are you wasting our money to save this desiccated old guy

Like why shouldn't we be spending it in these other states with candidates that we we like

Can I ask you a leading question

Aren't most of your questions. I mean who can say

Uh

So you had said, you know, what is the difference between John Cornington Ken Paxton right there they they'll be the same name and name of a

But if we switch it around and look at it from the point of view of a Republican voter in Texas

What is the reason you would prefer Ken Paxton a guy who should probably be in jail

Who is a serial adulterer who who would vote no

Than this other guy John Corning who is a respectable person who you voted for five times already and who also votes all the ways you want him to vote

Sarah

He's a fighter and he's more mega they think that John Corning is a phony

Uh, elitist establishment Republican right now and they see all of his overtures in

Trying to like put on a cowboy hat like they just they they think he's a fake and they think Ken Paxton

Yeah, right. No, that's true. He's part of an old guard Republican party that everybody was fine with back in the day

But now they want a mega fighter and when you try to tell people who want a mega fighter

Hey, this guy's had a lot of affairs and he's corrupt. They're like

That guy that's just like the that's just like the other guy. I really like like they're not turned off by that

I also this always takes me back. I want to add another thing to um that answer

To my favorite Sarah focus group ever

Which was over Republican voters. I believe in Georgia, Florida, Alabama. I kind of forget why you picked those three but um

We're going through various races and the voters through the mega voters

We're talking about the House candidates and they were talking about in Congress the people they like that are really getting shit done

Our Mac gates and Marjorie tailgreens a few years ago now and

They didn't know what the policies were that they passed

But they just see them out there owning the lips

And then when they start and then when we moved on to ask about the governor's race and stuff

You know, they're like yeah, I kind of like Brian camp better than whoever the mega was running at the time because

Our schools are getting better and I care about the road right like I do think that a lot of voters

Do look at Congress is like your job

Mega voters in particular your job is to make lips cry

Like to vote for crazy shit, you know, make a scene make me feel good

And and can practice and can deliver that form um I

I want to get uh lord and I'm gonna go around the horn about a telleriko thing

Bill crystal

Bill if you want to jump on here, please jump on bill is messaging us and it's like he's one of the commenters bill crystal

And he wanted to point it out

Jump on here if you want bill. We'd love to see you uh

That Bernie Sanders and the Bernie Sanders counties near Austin go in the hill country and like the Austin burbs

um

Telleriko's putting up huge numbers in the Bernie Sanders counties and

This kind of goes to a conversation we were having earlier thinking about what might work for telleriko

And it is what I'm calling the inverse of the Kamala paradox

Was it the Kamala paradox? I'm trying to brand it. So you're good at branding these things. Let's try and go Jim

It's gonna. It's the Kamala. It's a Kamala something

The Kamala Kenundrum the Kamala Kenundrum

It's a Kamala Kenundrum which is that

Lefty Bernie voters thought that she was a corporate shill

And centrist corporate shill voters

Thought that she was a California lefty. Yeah, and so she was in the sour spot

And I do think that telleriko has a chance and looking ahead to future democratic primaries

I feel like the ones are gonna succeed are the ones like the Bernie voters look at them like yeah

He's not quite Bernie enough for me

But I like that kind of that guy or gal's jib and the moderate voters like

A little lefty for me on some things, but I

I like whatever you know, what something else about them and telleriko has seen to figure that out

I don't know

Yeah, I just I think I was having a conversation with um

A strategist who's kind of in the moderate wing of the party the other day and we were talking about

populism and

What role it should play in the party. I was kind of surprised because he was like yeah

We fully recognize that the nominee in 2028 needs to be someone who embraces populism

Which is interesting because again this person barely moderate

Very much mainstream centrist wing of the party um and I think telleriko absolutely did that like he's it's been interesting

He's not really gone after trump a whole lot in his campaign. He did

He films like a little ad at the Texas state fair a couple of weeks ago

um

Noting that like fried Oreos and all these things are so much more expensive because of tariffs

He never said trump's name. He just talked about tariffs

Um, so his whole thing really is not about

Punching trump or punching the Republican party. It's all billionaires versus us

So what you have in that uh the only thing I was gonna say is that when you talk about the Kamala conundrum a lot of that comes from her not being

Uh able to cut like a really clear picture of who she was like I remember listening to voters talk about Kamala Harris all the time

And they're big complaint wasn't even too liberal or too moderate so much as I don't know what she stands for

I don't know who she is and I think with telleriko even if it's when you do the faith thing like if you've got something

That's clear for voters to grab on to so that they're like I know that person

I know what they're about like I get their vibe

Just something that really stands out to them and is sticky like that's a big piece of it

Just so they can locate you they didn't feel like they could locate Kamala Harris

In terms of who she was

Um, okay, we've got a little bit of bad news um and a little bit good news the bad news is the sham wow guy currently in sixth place

In his primary challenge against some mega person. I've never heard of John Conner

So that's too bad kind of interesting in an arc in saw race. I wanted to flag another one is uh

There's a supreme court seat there connected with constant supreme courts

It's it's one of these nonpartisan things but it's really partisan um where the incumbent is this like

You know person that believes that earth is 800 years old or whatever and that the dinosaurs and ladies live together

And um, and then there is like kind of an activist other candidate

The one against book bans and it's our can saw and the the conservative guys winning brownie 52 to 48 over atoms

But again, it's just kind of like those things are eyebrow raising you know, there was the the

Ryan Zinky dropped out in Montana this week. I like Lauren. You're gonna talk with uh

Ryan another Ryan Ryan bussy later this week about that race. He's running for congress

It's like, you know, he only won by 12 last time this Republican mega Republican guy in Montana

And if shit if an Arkansas supreme court race is four points, you know, I the field does start to open up a little bit

um

For the democrats. Are we ready for some shot in proida?

Yes, all right, um, I asked for the video of Dan Crenshaw sucking up to Donald Trump. Let's let's take a look at that

I'm just holding it

Look at Dan, where is he?

I love you, Trump

Oh, yeah, oh, you gotta come off on stage. Oh, yeah, there it is

I was gonna get a signature. Oh, yeah. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir

lick the lick the boot, Dan

lick the boot, Dan. That's too bad. I don't, Dan, I thought was supposed to be a normal one

I said this better be good, Dan

That took a long time

I said, Dan, what the hell is it? He said it's a no vote on impeachment day. That was a no

No vote on impeachment. No vote on Dan Crenshaw. That's enough to see you later, Dan

um, it's been real

We can't enjoy Dan Crenshaw losing in a primary to a mega Republican. What can you enjoy in this world, you know?

Do you remember when he made that ad where he was in a really tight

Body suit and he like oh, yeah, he like dropped himself through a window

With the matrix or something

That was embarrassing too. He's an action figure

great

Um, there's a devil. We have another let's keep doing it. We have another. We have a highlight reel

We have this is when me and Dan were debating on Pierce Crusher

It's kind of we need to music from like the from the Oscars like when somebody died

You made like that. Here's the thing Congressman frenchaw once your audience to thank

That the Republican party right now is the same as it was in 2017

And that the Donald Trump administration will be the same as it was when you brought in a bunch of traditional Republicans

To be around him and his cabinet and to work in his staff and I'm sorry

That's just an imaginary world that the congressman wants to live in to feel comfortable because what the world

We live in now is all those people. I'm sorry. Pierce. Let me finish. Let me finish all those people are gone now

And at the RNC at the box that people around

Trump is gone now

Marjorie Taylor Greene Tucker Carlson Tucker had a prominent spot to speak at the convention

Congressman Crenshaw did not this new party is a nativist party

That's going to be about mass deportations and tariffs and revenge on Donald Trump's enemies

If you don't believe me listen to what Donald Trump says and I just want to know why Congressman Crenshaw thinks

That he understands where the party is better than Trump's own vice president Mike Pence

Who assesses this and says no, this is not someone we can trust

Why does Congressman Crenshaw think that he knows better than Mike Pence about Donald Trump's character and what kind of policies he would

How's cooking

You look so young. What year was that?

Fuck you

You are the one aging me. You're making me sit here for hours watching the news. Yep. I need to cigarette after that

I

Can't get a cigarette actually

Okay, can we send him yeah to his office could we send him an edible arrangements love the bulwark? No, we could set him some soul

Edibles

Say let me tell you I this is this is um

We won't have a clip of this, but you know what else Dan Crenshaw did me doing something good. No

He threw Liz Cheney under the bus really hard like they were the same

They were like had the same views sick. She was in leadership. And then

He came out hard against her in her primary and I hope that Liz Cheney sent him a little note

Hope she's happy tonight. We end about three minutes when we get in some Dallas numbers in

And I think that once we get the Dallas numbers in

We'll probably get a call on the Texas on the Democratic side of the Senate race and we'll know a little bit about that

Collin already Joey Johnson

Lesbian on football player

battle

So we'll keep an eye on that

Lauren were you monitoring this um

Valerie Fushie race at all over North Carolina

Yeah, the fourth district. Yeah, yeah, I don't know if we have if that's been called it looks like Valerie's gonna win

But it's it's not over yet. They haven't called it. Okay. Yeah, I mean that was an interesting primary

This was I believe a rematch. I think in this primary

Basically Fushie is I think she's almost 70

She's the incumbent and she's getting a challenge from the Durham County Commissioner need a alum

Alums young she's in her early 30s

endorsed by standards

In Justice Democrats and David Hogg's groups and sort of that that cohort

um and

This race I think was a lot it was in some ways it was a generational sort of test

A bit of whether or not there's going to be a Democratic Tea Party

um

All-on was really painting her opponent is kind of backed a corporate Democrat almost back by APAC in better the AI industry things like that

So I mean, I'm interested if if Fushie kind of holds on she's one of these older Democrats who's been criticized for not really

You know kind of being asleep at the wheel sometimes, you know taking forever to come out and say something against

Trump's actions in Iran

So I don't know you it's it's hard to like read too much into any one race about what other incumbents can expect but

And a really interesting test

Um, this is an interesting race. I haven't been following um

The Texas Attorney General race and uh ship really

I once wrote an article about chip Roy uh where I called him a cowardly goldfish

Yeah, I kind of forget what I'm the cowardly goldfish now because I kind of forget what I was mattered about

But I would I remember clearly I still living in Oakland so I thought I bet I looked really young what during this phone call as well Sarah

And uh, he called me and like yelled at me for an hour

This was like when the bullet was just starting when Republicans like before they'd given up on me

They haven't given up on some of the other ones before I've all these guys that I used to work with they've given up on me

And so he called me to scream at me

But yell at me and about how like it's important to still have good Republicans in here Tim. Why are you coming after me?

I'm I still care about spending and I went against Donald Trump on impeachment and

Anyway, uh, he left Congress to run for attorney general and he's running against a guy named maze Middleton

I know nothing about maze Middleton, but if we could pull his picture up on the screen

That would be nice

We pull up a picture of maze

Middleton

Look at this guy. It's going to be a second, but here we go. Now there's some better ones. Let's keep going

Let's keep looking. Let's keep looking. Let's find his headshot. Let's find a headshot of maze Middleton

Anyway, while we effort that he is uh, he's waiting 43 to 29

Oh, over chip Roy chip Roy left Congress to run for Texas attorney general

And he is getting

Beat pretty handily by a fellow named maze

Middleton

Uh, remember the Texas Senate 11th district. You know, it looks like a uber

Part of why that's interesting is

The same picture there

There we go that man right there

That man is beating chip Roy like a drum right now. That is an alpha

You're a fighter if I've ever seen one

It's a fighter

He's crushing chip Roy in the Texas attorney general race. That's something

If you put a little hat on him, he looks like he could be he could be working in the Santa's workshop

Built in the

He's ever frame mugged anybody in his whole life. I think he has been bone smashing

Mays might be the attorney general now that is something else tough break for chip Roy and Dan Krenshaw

Krenshaw and boy. Do you guys think you're going to get any

more Republican

Retirements in the next two weeks after tonight's like as people start looking through

Again all the the weird races just places where it's a 30 point swing and stuff like that

Are more because I assume is why chip Roy didn't run and why I don't know in the next two weeks

But I think you're going to continue to see Republican retirements. Yeah, I think there's a lot of people heading for the hills

I think we've seen a lot already, but I don't think

We finished I do just but I think with chip Roy, you know chip Roy's one of those people who

Frequently doesn't vote for the speaker of the house or

doesn't or doesn't vote to pass a spending bill and

I don't know that his principled conservatism is very welcome anymore

I think people want somebody who's just going to support Trump's agenda and keep their mouth shut

Yeah, here was chip

After this was it was around January 6th. I was writing about this trump deserves universal condemnation

for what was clearly impeachable conduct

chip came around like they all did and the people just didn't believe it

So you got telleriko up by eight here with about half the vote in we're waiting on Dallas and I think that is

Gonna be

Pretty telling I'll start to start to peek at you if you have questions for us

Did I say San Antonio was West Texas somebody tell me I didn't I mean it's west of Austin

I'm aware that San Antonio's not West Texas. I watch landman. Okay. I watch landman

I know what's that. I know where West Texas says um

Lauren. Did you know that James Taleriko is not Hispanic?

Um, yes

Although I believe in the goal. Get the goal. I'm just saying

Mexico

Taleriko rhymes with more than regga

Um

You know, I think I think it did benefit Taleriko a lot like it's weird in these Texas races

There usually is like a spoiler

Hispanic candidate from

The Rio Grande Valley like a Dalga County or something and that that didn't happen this time

So Taleriko's really running up the score down there. I'm just looking at this

Right now like Cameron County

His Brownsville 63 34

Web County

65 31

Taleriko's really really running up the score with the uh with his banks

We'll we'll keep that. We'll take a look at your questions as we listen isn't Taleriko

um

Is it south of Austin San Antonio is south and west of Austin? Is it not? Am I crazy? Am I losing my mind?

I don't know. This is a fun geography question, but uh

Uh

Lauren

Yes, do you know so I don't need you to be Steve Kornaki here, but if if Steve Kornaki was here

He would be trying to tell us how many votes are in Dallas

That are possible and whether or not that would be enough to overcome the current

eight point gap

That currently exists between Crockett and Taleriko now. I don't know how many

Votes are there, but I see three hundred and twelve thousand for in Dallas

I got it just in the Democrats. Um, I'm not wearing khakis, but I'll be there

That I mean, that's that's obviously Crockett's home base. Um, I don't think

I don't know if there's enough

Where she could conceivably right now. We'll tell you this

Jazz James Hariko leads by a hundred thousand votes right now. There are three hundred thousand votes in Dallas

You guys can do the math or you can just look at Dave Wasserman, but we only have half the vote

Dave Wasserman over a district. He's seen enough James Hariko wins the Texas Senate Democratic

And uh, we'll head on to a general election against either John Cornyn or

Ken Paxton one of the big concerns that a lot of people have Lauren

I'm gonna ask you about this and we can let you pop if you want to about a general election with Taleriko

Is that it did it got kind of nasty with Crockett and there's some folks out there making the case that Taleriko is gonna have trouble turning out black voters in Texas now

Texas and Georgia

You know the percentage of the black mode is not as great as it is in some of these other states the raw number

There's a ton of black voters in Texas like the second or third most to any state, but um

What what's your sense of that like is that kind of be priority number one for him or like what are people saying about

And what a Taleriko been saying about how he's gonna you're trying to motivate black voters after kind of I can touch his primary with with Crockett

Yeah, I think that's gonna be one of the main things

Right out the gate that he's going to have to focus on I mean his strategy here was clearly

He knew that Crockett was gonna

win the black vote by a lot

So his play here was to run out the score with white voters and Latino voters um

Not to say that he didn't go into some black areas in campaign there

But that was not his primary focus in this in this primary race

So that's gonna be a major thing that he's gonna have to work on coming out of this primary Crockett

I will say has a role to play there and that is going to be interesting

to

I think before tonight it was very clear that Taleriko was a bit more of a team player

I mean he he made very clear to his supporters that if Crockett wins

We are all gonna go knock doors. We're gonna help her win this race

Um, and then Crockett's campaign put out a statement basically saying like we'll support whoever wins

But it didn't come from her you know, there's just like a different level of sort of commitment that you felt from the two of them

So I'm curious to see what she does coming out of this um

And how much she kind of helps the driver mr

Obama's been on the sidelines and you know not done a lot

But he has popped out in campaign season from time to time

And I know that he and Taleriko have talked and I wouldn't be surprised if he was called in to

Help with that um

All right, Loni, you got any other final thoughts for us?

If you want to pop off then we'll just kind of go around the horn and close things down the three of us. That's great

Thanks guys

We'll look to your guys questions because if any questions thoughts um here before we let you all go

um

The Arkansas Supreme Court race just one of the things I want to mention it does look like the bag the the

Christian Nationals guys gonna win there

But the the Democratic Align person is overperforming Kamala in Arkansas by 52 points right now and so I just

You know again off off year whatever like special election

But primary night

But I just can you continue the positives for me the positive takeaways and we'll get to kind of go around and take

aways and go to questions um is

Dan Crenshaw

Bites the dots see you later Dan

Democrats do continue to overperform in these specials and and the Texas Senate races, you know

That nobody's getting good and counting their chickens on it, but it feels more in play than it did an hour ago for the Democrats

Yes, um, and and I saw a question in the chat that I think is a good one

Which is it was it was asking where do the hunt voters go right because this is this is the question so right now in this

Cornon is up by about two points

Over Ken Paxton, but I believe Wesley hunt has like 12 points. That's a lot, right? That's a big

chunk that he got as a as a third candidate

Um, and I think hunts people go

To Paxton um feels like it, right? Yeah, I mean, so you so first of all hunt ran as like the ultra mega guy

Even though I don't think that's quite who he is um and he's also he's a young black guy

Uh, and so I think that these are voters in Texas who are like I want something new and different and I don't think that the new and different crowd

Goes back to cornon. I think that's something, right? Yeah

That's right. Yeah, you have two challengers in an incumbent the what are the chances that the challengers voters are gonna say

Oh, actually, I really want the same

yeah

Um, the uh algreen um

I mentioned I just want to bring that in one more time because just interesting the generational change out of this Christian

Manifee is the young guy to watch handsome guy um and uh he seems to be like he looks like he's gonna be winning

That primary over algreen hasn't been called yet, but he he's up by he's up by six points um

JBL, do you have any other uh final thoughts before we take some questions and get out of here?

Yeah, I do uh there's you go pull out today

showing that

Trump's strong disapproved number is now 51%

His overall approval is down to 38%

This

This starts to look

say

It starts to look like things could really

Like the bottom could fall out

Right, we could go down to 35

Bush line. Bush line. Bush line. I'm just saying. I mean nothing if you look around and say so what are the things that get better for him

I mean, I guess he could stop warring

He could stop doing his war

He could stop doing tariffs, but I don't know like it

I don't want to be optimistic JBL well. Yeah, love that. Can I sorry?

I've just one other little tidbit which is um

Kamala Harris endorsed Crockett, which was one of the questions Jesse said that which endorsement was worse

Trump for Herschel Walker or Kamala for Jasmine Crockett Trump for Herschel Walker was a jasmine Crockett both um like

Was not an abuser who played Russian roulette all the time psychopath, but um

But I do think it is

I was a tough one for Kamala to jump in and try to test

her ability to

Move voters

Because that didn't it didn't work out that way um

So yeah, well, what did she do it as ability to test voters? What if she did it as like hey jasmine Crockett is a black woman trying to set something

Trying to do something historic and that's fine

That's fine

Well, hold on the question is not whether you're respected or whether because her reasons can be

Perfectly good. It's more of a

It means like Trump could endorse somebody and pull them over the finish line no problem

And so it is a test of who juice with voters

It's not a thing. It's just a test of political

Also, yeah zero juice, but also political skill and let's say this. I like Kamala first line

Got to meet her a few times. I like her and I and I you know to to make this even Stephen

We're we're ripping on Jeb today on the TNL for his

Comment on our Iran. I like to Jeb

Jeb didn't really have any juice like Jeb's political skills that without that great. He's a good governor

He he wasn't politically that strong and his instincts went back great politically on the national scale

um

And we've now seen from Kamala

Okay primary campaign that was bad

um, you know some bad political instincts as VP I think some bad ones in the post

Campaign choices and this race it's like you're going back to that sour spot the Kamala conundrum

It's like it was kind of a half-sea endorsement, right? She did a she did a

Auto dial for something a phone call to went to evil's houses. So it was like

Not enough to really help her

To help Crockett

But enough to

Annoy people that were on Dalariko's side, right? And so it's like well, what was the point of doing that?

It's just it's showed I think a lack of political judgment that

We've seen a couple of cases with her so anyway

Not a huge deal, but but not particularly savvy endorsement of the breaking news here. I think okay

What polls just park them Tina Peters? Oh, fuck did we have to do this live?

You have to come at me as Jeb and Jared pull us in the same

I'm sorry. I thought this was a live cast as news. We're gonna we want to break the whole hold this

I'm gonna try to confirm you you talked in okay. I'm gonna answer one of these questions because I have an answer to this um

Odie Tavish, I think

Adie Tavish um asked now are any of these races we're donating to or do we want to wait till?

Help up smaller down ballot candidates later. I'm gonna work on this project

It is coming soon

Where I'm gonna highlight some races that I think are super interesting to donate to

If you're so inclined

And the races that I

Think are the where you get the most bang for your buck

Are going into red states and districts where there isn't already going to be a ton of funding

So I kind of think Tavariko is going to be pretty well funded. I don't think that's a waste of money

But the races I'm looking at Mary Peltola Alaska

Making sure she's really well-funded. I think it's going to be important for the Democrats

And I don't know if that's going to be as high a priority from the big ticket donors

Maybe the island Kansas Senate races. Let's see how those shake out. I think those are also stretch races that

A Democrats are almost as likely to win as Texas, but won't have as much attention on them

And then he'll he'll hold a bunch of house districts

I mentioned that Montana House race earlier Ryan bus. He's a really good candidate former

Gunwrites advocate. He's kind of like the

Sarah of gun rights, you know, he's he's flipped and

And seen things from the inside and

It's still still an active gun owner and user, but wants to see

reforms and and and but is not is really in step with Montana

12 point race as I mentioned earlier like that something so I'll put together a list for people

Coming up here in the next few weeks, but yeah

Don't donate yet. We are going to we will talk a lot about these things. Yeah

Fact check polis is not yet part of Tina Peters

He's simply put out a tweet saying that here a Democrat has been just

given probation for a thing which is just as serious as what Tina Peters did

And he really has to look forward to the equal application of the laws

That's what he's thinking about right now

But he's going to part of Tina Peters. Well don't make me text you at polis right now

I'm enjoying myself. I'm enjoying where you don't do it Jared. Don't do it. Don't do it

Guys, he's not gonna listen to me. Let's let's let's just do a quick recap because it's been a good night actually

I'm sorry. I don't optimistic. So I had to even things out Sarah. Yeah. Okay. I that's that's you that that tracks

But this was a really strong night and I want to say I

I actually maybe liked Jasmine Crockett more than one might think I I tend to

Think that right now she did not run a very good campaign, but I I sort of like

The gutsy like let's try like let's me a fighter like you're gonna need some of that energy

And I really hope she does go to bat for James Talrico going into this that would be like a strong move on her part

But I do think Talrico was the best choice in terms of putting a seat in play

And I'm just gonna say again

Republicans now have already spent more on this Senate fight

Between Corning and Paxton

Then they wanted to now they've got to spend more money on a runoff and this is gonna be a competitive Senate race in Texas now

And so for those of you who are disappointed about Jasmine Crockett, I understand

But I do think everybody should

Think hard like and look nobody's here being polyannish about waves or anything else or it's just that

For Texas to be in play when you're seeing these big swings

It means it's worth looking at and I'm somebody who

Last go around I was like leave Texas alive. It's not gonna happen

But I think you know Ohio now will look very competitive in this type of environment

Especially for an award where you got shared Brown

Running and so this is a good first step in my opinion

All right, everybody close out well recent Bollard podcast guess Bobby Polito and Bollard fan and um

Musician what's what kind of music does he do not Latina music?

Anyway, whatever

It's not my cup of tea exactly, but he was great. I liked him a lot

Very interested candidate. Sorry. We have one thing I'm in the chat from Matt Marshall our buddy

Texas Supreme Court is temporarily blocked a Dallas judges order to keep the polls open until nine

And ordered the county to separate out votes from people who are not in line at seven p.m

This is not a final ruling, but we'll create chaos and getting the results. So why would they possibly do that?

The

It's almost as if you think

Tehano music is the kind of music I was talking about the volume leader does

It's almost as if the Republicans that run Texas want people to not have faith in elections

So it makes it easier for them to steal them. It's almost as if that. It's almost as if they're trying to defund

Elections of the administration and make this as hard as possible and as confusing as possible

So they can do shenanigans in the future. That's just something to keep an eye out. So that's a negative thing on the positive side

James Telleriko

Renegade campaign

With a big win over Jasmine Crockett on the Republican side John Cornyn and

Ken Paxton are going to a runoff

Which means that they're gonna have to spend a lot of rich Republicans money trying to prop

John Cornyn up

That's great. We like that

Dan Crenshaw good riddance

Lost a primary to a Mr. Toath

Tough titties for you

Dan Crenshaw and does some democratic overperformance in other places. So

Generally a good night. We appreciate you guys for doing this with us

We have made many primary nets ahead. So yes leave some comments

Let us know what you thought about how this things went

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