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What's up everybody? It's an election night. I love an election night
I used to really love election nights until Donald Trump started winning elections and they're a little triggering now
But I do I do still love them deep down inside. I'm Tim Miller. I'm here at Sarah Longwell publisher of the Bullwork JBL
Editor author of the Triad newsletter love our girl Lauren Egan coming in here in a little bit
She's been covering the Dems and we just want to do a live
Live podcast live streaming with you on a big election night
Set the table here
Big win for the eight-year-old girls basketball team. I go to honey bad just tonight. I don't know. It's what you guys agree to hear about
It's been a tough season, but things are clicking right as we get to play off. I'm okay anyway. Tim's working the refs
That's why I was working
I was working the rest and it was working baby. We got a big W tonight. Okay on to the actual news. You're here for the
The Texas Senate race is on both sides is the one that we're most focused on the a couple other races
We're monitoring
Returns are coming in on both the Republican and the Democratic side
We had a delay. I guess the big news of the night is that in Dallas County
They're probably don't know how to run elections. They don't care. I don't know if this is this kind of news to you guys
But in Dallas County, that was like mass voter confusion
One of my buddies lives there. So I was texting about it. It's like the the vote at the election site was down
If you the a lot of places where people usually went to vote you want a lot to vote there
Because they changed the rules. You had to go to your precinct and a lot of people will try to vote weren't able to so they extended it now or
I think that in particular. I think jasmine krakens campaign is interested in that because it's our home base
It's our base of support in Dallas
So that might delay us a little bit tonight. That's the big news
The early results here
We're looking pretty favorable for James telerico just to be blunt
Not over yet
But if you look at the kalshi prediction markets
They basically called it for telerico already Dave Wasserman over at this
Over at Kirk political
Is very sober mind that he says it's looking like telerico the broad swaths of that and then I'll go you guys kind of weigh in
Is krakens continues to be well with a voting base of black voters older black voters in particular
She's doing well in a lot of counties that Joe Biden did well in in the 2020 Texas primary where he
Beat uh Bernie, but it was a more of a those a bigger field right so a lot of other other other vote was
fractured
Talrico is doing well as expected like around austin. He's running upside down. He's saying numbers in austin
He's up 7623 there right now
And in and in west Texas that austin to San Antonio area
The interesting thing is houston was one we were wondering another urban area
You know a lot of black voters in houston that also out of college educated voters
Obsused with big kind of fault line here. Talrico is down in houston, but it's a lot closer than I think people thought
And then the other group of Hispanic voters
Along the Rio Grande Valley and they're a little later to come in, but
Earlier results seem to indicate that Talrico is doing well among
Hispanic voters
So that is kind of where we're at to start any big takes from you guys on
What why this matters what you're seeing
I guess maybe I want you to go first because you kind of wrote about why this matter
so this total
Okay
If it plays out the way we think it is
Total vindication for the Tim Miller Sarah Longwell view of democratic politics going forward
For people who are not maybe regular viewers of this
Tim Miller has been saying Democrats got to try doing different things
Everywhere Sarah Longwell has been saying
Got to speak to Trump voters got to try to meet them where they are
Speak their language
Maybe lead with faith at some point
and
Talrico did this
And Jasmine Crockett did something different too now what she did wasn't
Very effective. Maybe it turns out
But she tried running like a shit poster like hey, I'm just gonna go for low info voters and try to turn that out
And it seems to have not worked
But that's good
It's good to try these things. It is good to run the experiments and
What I most wanted I just didn't want like a 49.8 to
We might still get that yeah, I would not say yeah, we might
But it looks like we're gonna get like a clean result and
Not not a dusty finish as they would call it in wrestling but but a clean win
And it's good to have tried an experiment in real time and have gotten a verdict on it
And not to just have had like
Two or three candidates were all indistinguishable from one another running in the same way
Yeah, let me talk a little bit about why it matters like big picture
So people watching this live stream are probably political nerds
So this might be a little basic, but I do just want to lay out the fact that
Texas has been like a desperation
Reach state for Democrats for so long
They thought they could get somewhere with Beto against Ted Cruz. It didn't work
Collin all red didn't work just hasn't worked in Texas. However, the Republicans much like they did in 2022
Seem primed to nominate back onto the Republicans yet, but there is a strong chance
That they might nominate a guy named Ken Paxton who has more baggage than Tim Miller on a trip to Europe
It is I don't know do you pack a lot to go. It's guess it's all speedos and stuff. I don't know
Uh
You're muted dude
I was coughing. I thought that was me. I'm just gonna move on what I thought that was I shouldn't say so you just keep going
Lot of baggage Ken Paxton
You know and not he's there's been a lot like the tabloidie stuff with uh his wife and affairs and things like that
But that's not it's also like a ton of corruption this guy was actually he was um impeached by his own state at one point
He leads with his faith to just like James style recall though. There's a few problems
With that and so his wife
divorced him not that long ago saying that he had offended their spiritual
home and arrangement so
In a year
Where Republican enthusiasm might be at its absolute lowest point with a
Candidate quality problem on the Republican side
It is the closest opportunity Democrats have had in a really long time to pick up a senate seat in Texas
In a at a moment when that could be the difference between Democrats
Being even
Doug Jones versus Roy Moore. That's right. It's a big race. It's a big race
And so who the person is on the Democratic side is
Very important and so you're testing and what I like about. I've really liked this Texas primary
Even though it's been kind of ugly at a national level doing the focus groups with Democrats
Was actually a bit of a relief. I don't know if you guys listen to the episode, but
Democrats in Texas were like I'm making a big announcement
I'm getting back on the focus group podcast right now
I had to take a year off because I just couldn't hear the voters. I was too mad at them
But I should have listened to the Texas primary when I feel bad
I did end right now and I'm getting back on starting this Saturday
Sorry, continue. I can't believe it because you know what they you know
So we were talking about what a nasty race it's been
They liked both of them
70% approval for both of them. They were not really tracking like the
All of the drama that yeah the online stuff they were like on one side
We got Jasmine Crockett. She's fiery. She's authentic. She goes hard. She's a fighter
I love that on the other side. We've got James Talrico who talks about faith, which is so good in Texas
and so
If Talrico pulls this out
I think what you're going to see is the divide between black voters and Hispanic voters like we already see this
We got guy named Talrico. We've got a black woman in the race and so blacks and Hispanics are
Seems to be lining up. Telleriko just because his name and the end of the valve. I'm not actually Hispanic
I know, but this is this is this is I know but this is everybody is talking about the Hispanic. Yeah black
Like Hispanics are going for Talrico. Yeah, Taloriko
Uh, it's one of my people. Yeah, is he's just Catholic
Uh, you know, that's the first in Davis County in Texas. Can you just let me finish this and then I'm not going to see that much more, okay?
So then
Where it goes is going to be down to a lot of the like
white Democrats in Texas and here's the thing about the white Democrats in Texas
They I don't think have as much of a dog in the fight as it seems like Hispanics and black voters do
They want to win and so this became for those voters and electability conversation
Who do they think could potentially beat Ken Paxton and if this goes the way it looks like it's going to go
With Taloriko winning. It's because they decided he was the more electable candidate probably not that they liked him better
But that he had a better chance of beating Ken Paxton in a general election
I want to de-racialify that a little bit because I think that just we've learned a lot
Over the last six years in particular the Democratic primary voters overall are pragmatic
Overall, they're pragmatic. They're more pragmatic than Republicans. It doesn't mean that they won't
Pick the more lefty candidate. I you know, we've even talked about the main race earlier today
And so people say well if general voters are pragmatic. Why isn't Janet Mills doing better?
I think that they're pragmatically making a bet maybe they're wrong
But I think that they think that grand partner would actually be a stronger candidate in the general because
Of the way he codes is a working class guy because they tried Sarah Gideon last time she lost
They don't want a boring old person. They so the democratic voters care a lot more about electability in their primary
It's a higher education audience. It's a higher engaged audience a higher news watching audience and and you know
This is our boy Lakshadjane over at split ticket and he's saying that jasmine carcass basically under performing everywhere and
Obviously she's doing better and black counties and closer to home counties
But like based on the baseline of what they thought that she was going to do she seems to be underperforming everywhere and
You know, and so I look I think that the Hispanic voters are also being pragmatic
And again despite that taleriko sounds a little more Hispanic. He's just a white guy. He's just a pastor
So I don't know that there's a big racial affinity there
I think that folks who are looking at this and saying look this guy
We've talked about their religious aspect. He goes on Fox. He went on Joe Rogan
He at least has a theory of the case for talking to Trump voters
This is my big thing about cracking all time. She didn't even offer a theory of the case for what her message was to them
Those days go like fuck you Trump voters and we'll see what happens
We maybe that would have worked. It seems like we're not going to know. We don't know for sure
But I just think that there's a lot you see this across the board now for violent democratic primaries a lot of pragmatism
I hate to bring up old wounds, but
It's kind of why some of us thought there should have been a primary in the 24 presidential campaign
So do you think the democratic voters would have been pragmatic about that? But anyway
We'll continue to monitor that as it goes on over to the Republican side unless javiel you don't think that but
No, I agree completely
I think on the Republican side we are probably probably headed towards a runoff
You got to get 50% there were three candidates on the Republican Senate side john cornon
Ken Paxson and Wesley Hunt was the third candidate um Sarah talked about Ken Paxson's baggage
earlier
I the relevance of I think the result in this primary is a lot of people are saying if Ken Paxon won by a lot then maybe
Then maybe the runoff would kind of be pro forma because Trump would endorse him and
That's not happening right now right now john cornon's up by about 4%
It looks like there's a lot of vote not out out of vote out uncounted out in rural Texas
And he kind of like look at the map here
You know cornon is is doing a little better in the suburbs and and
Paxson's doing better out and kind of excerpt
So we'll see how that goes
I think it's possible that Paxson could run up the score in some of these other counties
So it doesn't look like Houston's and either so
TVD on that couple other things to monitor on the Republican side that are a little bit of fun for everybody
Um, well ones kind of dark, but the other ones are kind of fun. Um Dan Crenshaw
um
He's got a primary from the right
I made a suggestion to a couple of bull and I was like look if you're a bullwark podcast
Let's turn you live in Houston and you don't have a dog in the Senate race
Maybe consider pulling the Republican ballot and voting against Dan Crenshaw just for kicks right now
He's down 53 to 44
To a man named
Steve Toath that I'm just going to be honest. I don't know much about
But he cannot possibly be as smug and condescending and annoying as Dan Crenshaw
So we'll keep an eye on that. That's early. It's really only 28% of voting. It's a sham Crenshaw podcast
The sham it exists already. I was doing worse than mine the sham wow guy
Is also running in a primary that's a lecture you monitor
Uh, yeah, there's a big issue that they wouldn't let him put his name sham wow
On the thing on the ballot. So he's mad about that
Thinks of the steel and then Tony Gonzalez
Um, who is the uh congressman who's
Uh, go more set herself on fire
Um, he is also in a primary. He's up 1.4% so
That's kind of what we're watching on the Republican side. Anything I miss there you want to talk about on the Republican sides here
Did you hit North Carolina
No, so I don't often why don't you talk about North Carolina? Yeah. Yeah. So Mike Wattley
His one the Republican primary in North Carolina, which means he is going to face off against
The guy who's going to beat him
Whose name I don't know. I'm just blanking on right now anybody got it right Cooper. Thank you
Um, so that's the only other one. I'm really watching. I do want to
Uh, go back to the Texas Senate race for just one second. Yeah
Um, because I was seeing some chatter in the comments about how like running to the center doesn't work
And I'm interested in that comment because I am wondering
Which candidate they mean
Because one of the interesting things about the Texas Senate race is that I think people think
That Jasmine Crockett is the more progressive candidate in the race, but she is not
um
She is the more just as a strict policy matter or a strict establishment democratic matter
Jasmine Crockett's pretty like establishment Democrat uh, and James Tauriko is I think sort of the more progressive one when it comes to
Actual policy beliefs and so
I don't know who they think is running to the center. I do think
It's probably fair to say some people think Tauriko codes
More center because he seems more temperamentally moderate. Yeah, like some people think he's a little more boring
I heard this in the focus groups that some people thought he was a little milk toast and she was just more like fiery add more passion
Um, yeah, I also say that's just wrong. I hate when people make uh, just blanket statements like that
I do think there's just like really big online thing where like it's like a big fight between moderates and progressives
And it's just like you know, sometimes the progressives are sometimes the moderates are right
I hate to bring that you know, bring it down like that
But it running to the center does help sometimes Ruben Greggo who had on the pod today
ran to the center on immigration
and outperformed
Kamala Harris by like
12 points and ended up winning his Senate race while she lives in Arizona
Those in Arizona right so it made sense for him to do that
You know, we're talking about at Platner like Platner is kind of running to the left
It's a populous left. I think that makes sense right so um
You know, they don't there's never uh
Folks that say that's running so the center never works. They don't ever offer that same opinion when it's their Republican side
So I think it's important to make sure you just for a thought exercise if you think it never works
Think about a Republican primary like do you think that Republicans benefited from having carry lake
Is there nominee in Arizona versus having like a more boring moderate person?
I don't like I think that they and so you know at the presidential level things are very
And so I just I would encourage you personally you can't necessarily map
presidential politics
In a swing state where there's all this national attention onto what's happening and like a Texas center race like the dynamics of it are quite different
Yeah, but also Donald Trump people thought he coded as a moderate. They thought he was moderate on social issues
Because he was moderate on social issues and spending and war and spending and you know
He was I'm gonna save Medicare so security like didn't turn out to happen on war
But he did run to the center on war just he didn't end up doing it
He said it
He said it we all saw the truth but some of the voters didn't so you know, there's maybe some lessons to learn from that
Okay, more results coming in telleriko
Now 52% to crock at 46 and we're not gonna really know
Until we get to Dallas
And see what happens out of Dallas, but signs are are are looking towards crock at one other thing
I sort of mentioned on house primaries a couple other races were monitoring and well you guys you guys shoot out questions to us
You can shoot super chat to us for on YouTube or questions on sub stack
a couple other primaries. I sort of mentioned
Valerie Fouche
And is it Fouche your Fouche? I don't know if I'm giving that right
She is a North Carolina Democrat that was supported by APAC and had kind of a left challenger
Lots of events that she's looking okay so far
Al green who's more of kind of an establishment Democrat that's
Has basically complained about him is that he's old very old. He has a younger
Challenger. I think also slightly to the left
But that raises basically mapping along a generational lines and green seems like he's in trouble. It's a Texas Democrat
Um
So Al green and Dan Crenshaw and maybe Tony Gonzalez in the house on on the ropes a little bit
Sorry, sorry, are we trying to chime in on something? I wasn't no
um
Yeah, so cover yeah hyper driven here Taloriko Codesmore Center and appeals more to the Latinos
Yeah, I think that there is something to that, but we'll see in a pride
We'll see how that plays out in a general. I mean he's that he hasn't
Taloriko has not really in any meaningful way
actually taken
Like centrist positions as he is there something that I'm missing well, I mean
Talking about Jesus Codes as centrist
Right sure and but I'm in actual issues
Right, well, but here's my question for you guys
Is it possible the Taloriko could help
Some people understand that uh if you take the Jesus stuff seriously, it's both based and woke
Like I mean this is one of the things I've spent the last decade sitting around going is like
this
Christian nationalism stuff has fuck all to do with Jesus and if you
I mean if you just look at all the Catholic doctrine and then I understand christianne is born just got policies and sort of um
like it's uh
You know
It's awfully woke all the woke stuff is in there feed the hungry
Clothe the naked comfort the prisoner like it I you know this is all that new covenant stuff
It does not mesh well with what
Is political Christianity in America
Yeah, I think that's right. I also just think um
It would be helpful because one of the things I know listening to the focus groups is while democrats don't lead with their faith
They're plenty faithful um like if you start if you bring up religion
Lots of democrats will speak to it, but if you talk to republicans and ask them why are you a republican
They will point to their faith as a central reason
Uh, which I think confuses people as to how somebody could you know vote for Donald Trump if they're a Christian
But if your entire
Culture has intertwined your Christianity with your political identity and your identity is like deeply rooted
That holds up better to change than democrats who are say I'm a democrat because I believe in xyz
Because then if a candidate doesn't do xyz you get mad and maybe don't vote for them
Whereas republicans are willing to vote for
Anybody who shares that identity even if they don't share the faithfulness
Um, Nick Nicholas so speaking of coding uh, JBL is coding a piscopalian
Which that's fired shot fired big time. Yeah
Wow
libass JBL coding a piscopalian
Thanks really that's those are her words
The uh
Tell here's the other thing about teller you teller you came into a lot of people's consciousness
I'm pretty sure
By he went on Fox and he had a huge viral mo with Pete Hegseth going after Pete Hegseth
The current secretary more who was at the time a co-host on a weekend talk show and James
Was trying to get him to say who won the 2020 election, which is a good good gambit
And then he goes on Rogan and Rogan by all counts like so
And like says nice things about it
Which like you know shows you the benefit of like trying um and
Uh, you know showing up a lot of these guys. It's another thing that got an always annoyed man people and people like the democrats
She can go on those things because they have bad opinions. It's like all these guys are stupid
I was about to say the R word, you know
A lot of them are very dumb
And it's like if you're smart
What James telleriko you can sit there for two hours of Joe Rogan runs circles
It's not that hard
To win some people over um reago says a Cooper or one of the dams and has lost him in Texas win the general election
Are they the front runner for 2028?
I don't think that Roy Cooper is going to be in the 2028 mix um god love him
I who the hell knows though. I mean, I think the telleriko there'd be a lot of um
Lot of pressure on him not to run
Because yeah, the democrats finally win in Texas finally in Texas statement. You give up the senate seat that said
I don't know a lot of people told Barack Hussein Obama that he should wait for Hillary Clinton
We saw how that turned out so sometimes waiting
Yeah, you know, what that was an Illinois Senate
If you want a good Christian democratic and speak to his faith you can go get Raphael Warnock
I like Raphael Warnock
Uh, we're getting Lauren Egan's going to come on here in a minute
Let me just peek up here at the latest on the numbers. We're still
Uh Ken Paxson is closing the gap a little bit with Cornyn. So that's something that we'll monitor
Uh, and telleriko's expanding if we don't interest in the Cornyn Paxson race. Yes
Paxton uh here here's so I and this is this is a change for you. It is
This is back to 2060 boy. It's a book. I want to hear so
Look, I think that this is this is the only way a democrat wins the seat is if Ken Paxson is the nominee
And I would like a democrat to win the seat and I think I have made this case now
I think one of the big shifts for me was there was a period of time
When what you needed were sort of reasonable Republicans to stand up to Trump during the first term right
And so I was like, yeah, you know, we should we should be trying to elect
sensible saying Republicans, but they all got run out of the party like out on a rail and
At this point the moderate Republicans Susan Collins
And not even to just like establishment Republicans like old-score Republicans
Not only do they not stand up to Trump, but they do a tepid
Korean favor of Trump like Cornyn has done his best to butcher up like he did an ad where he's like reading the art of the deal
And I would rather the Republican party just show people who they are they are hypocrites and
And I but you know, I think this now, but like I I think
It you should be who they are and Ken Paxson perfectly reflects what Republicans want
Stellarationist Sarah is the best Sarah. This is not an accelerationist. Uh, this is this is a what is more than better on
I got that's the thing I come down to
It's it was like show me something that John Cornyn has voted on that
Was very meaningful that Ken Paxson wouldn't have to to contain Trump. He hasn't so fuck him
Well, and this is this is I would say this speaks to
Something you have said many times Tim
Which is that maybe if the grown-ups hadn't been in the room and Trump won we wouldn't have had Trump too
Right like all of the people are like well, I got to be in the room to stop the worst stuff
And I'll take the really crazy shit off his desk
Maybe if they hadn't done that and we could have just had the real full Trump and Trump won we wouldn't have be here now
Maybe we saw plenty of full Trump
Uh, I mean he tried to overthrow the election
Yeah, he had a lot of great he had a lot of crazy ideas that he didn't get to execute on but you know, sure fair enough
And it's a weaker argument now that he got elected after January 6th. I will I will say
Yeah, this is just there is remains a theory out there that like you should be protecting
Uh, what's his thoughts who he voted to impeach Trump, but then he used it
Cassidy right like oh, we should protect him from a from a tough Republican primary because the other person's gonna be more mega
And you're like
What's the difference? What's the difference between Cassidy and this other person now?
You can look backwards and say Cassidy was willing to
impeach him
But if you look at everything since then Cassidy has done everything Trump wants in order to try to win this election
And I would rather just dispense with the
Farce dispense with the K-fabe as JVL would say
Um, I want it before you go
Throw oh, yeah, I think you wouldn't you know what go ahead you say it because we're gonna say the same thing
I have a schmoment just I'm just gonna sit here
They call a cruncher. No, I haven't called it yet, but mr. Toath is beating
Dan and I'm not gonna comment on any of how Dan looks
So I'm just gonna enjoy it mr. Toath is beating Dan cruncher by 20 points with 60% in
So not called yet, but they're not looking great for old Danny Danny C
Oh, could somebody find me on the producer side that was this there's a sad video of Dan cruncher
He used to act like he was an independent Republican. This is right. I'm not sure I was just talking about
And when he decided to throw all in with Trump, he was at like a TP USA event
And he was sitting down in the front row like screaming like mr. Trump. Please sign my
Please sign my boobs like he was shouting at him. That was very sad
Let's let's do a low light real Dan crunch off. We could effort that. Let's bring in Lauren Egan
What we try to find
Uh some of the most embarrassing moments of Dan cruncher. Maybe a highlight reel with the time being Dan cruncher
Debate at each other. Maybe maybe should we watch me should we watch highlight reel me? I don't know. We'll see how things go
uh
Lauren what I want to get your take on this democratic center. He's looking good for Telleriko
I had mentioned kind of him going into the lion's den is something that
Separated him and draw a lot of attention him doing Rogan and Fox
Also social media game those been pretty legit. Why don't you kind of talk about what you think explains
How Telleriko's position himself
Yeah, he was kind of a no name person even just a few months ago
I remember the first i think like a year ago sam and i were slacking about like how do we pronounce this guy's name
And now everyone knows him um
But he really started to catch people's attention off of his tiktok and instagram when we're talking about the attention economy
He's kind of one of these early democrats who really demonstrated that you knew how to master it
He went viral a lot for his speeches on the house floor
Especially in his opposition to the school voucher movement in texas
And i think what's interesting about his social media stuff
I mean, it's kind of different from what we've seen with mom donny. It's not super gimmicky
There's not like a halal cart involved or things like that. It's oftentimes him speaking
From the state house
oftentimes him talking about scripture talking about his faith and how he relates it to politics
And it just really took off these has millions of followers on tiktok
and instagram and
Someone ended up sending one of his tiktoks to joe rogan like one of joe rogan's friends
It was basically like hey, you've got to have this guy on your show. So long story short
Telleriko goes on the joe rogan show last summer and that's kind of what kick started his whole campaign
He announced he's running for a senate just a couple weeks after that
Talked to us about how seriously the democrats are taking this and looking at the prediction
Markets here and
Yeah, we there's no sense overreacting to that but it's it's a data point
And just tonight as these results are coming in you see texas senate winner republican or democrat
The republican number has gone
You know from like 80% down to 65 like you start to see the red line going down the blue line going up as it looks
possible that it's a taleriko verse paxed in race
Is this like a social media buzz thing?
A lot of us like to talk about it but the actual dsc the democratic campaign folks are more like interested in other states
Or do they think it's real?
It's not anything. It's real is not on the top tier list of states
This was i mean when shumer and the dscc were laying out their top tier the states that they had to win
This was not on it. I when i talked to shumer a couple weeks ago about texas
He basically said well, we're gonna wait and see what happens in the primary
We'll make our decision about how much we want to get involved and how much money we want to put into the state
Until we see who these winners are
Obviously they were watching to see who the republican winner was and the democratic nominee as well
I think that if this ends up being a paxed and taleriko race which
Early signs indicate that that's potentially where we're headed
Democrats are gonna feel a lot more bullish about this race
But it's this is still i mean we say this every cycle. This is still a really hard state
For democrats to win in so i think the difficult thing for the party now is they're gonna have to decide
Just how much do they actually throw into the state and invest when their path back to the senate has to include places like
Ohio potentially Iowa, Alaska, North Carolina, and then texas is really on that like be list of of states
Yeah, I mean Ohio and texas could end up flopping. I don't know
Sarah don't want to get your chime in just on the democratic wave
Thing in these random races. Oh, there's also Arkansas tonight. So random house district. It's north of
Little Rock
But in the election in 24 the republican won narrowly in this kind of little rock suburb
149 special election right now the democrat is
Shalonging the republican like 63 to 36 and they're about to call it so you know just things like that
It's just whatever and it's just that it's just an Arkansas special but a 30 point swing is in line with kind of the stuff
You've we've been seeing yeah, and i think republicans have noticed this right they've noticed that in every special election
This is not it's not look you can one race
I think it was desantis who came out and said hey, I think we should be worried about this. We're seeing
15 20 30 point swings in every single special election and it speaks to two things one
increased democratic enthusiasm and two decreased republican enthusiasm
And also and I think it's worth just making this point every time we talk about the midterms
But the fact that republicans
Uh
Have
Sorry somebody else go. I just lost my turn. I thought I have to come back to it. Lauren you go
The chat yeah, I look at the chat. Why are you looking at the chat?
I know I know I get it. I'm gonna turn it off. I gotta turn it off
Too many did I'm I'm I'm sorry. Sorry. I'm sorry. I got it back. Sorry. It's that the people who are turning out in the midterms
right are
The low propensity voters who vote for Donald Trump
Are not midterm voters. Sorry. That is just the big overarching thing
We want to say every single time that Democrats now have a structural advantage in off years
That republicans used to have but no longer do
Um, we were mentioning the tiktok so it live and uh, we want to trigger Sarah a little bit on this one
So there was an issue uh, that James Talleriko got a lot of momentum on that um
It's I think maybe contrast Sarah's priors. That's good. We like we like to be honest about our views around here
Maybe even counter JVL's let's watch it. It's James Talleriko
As one of his first viral videos on tiktok
Just like any scam
vouchers may sound good
But once you dig into the details you realize they're ripping you off
A voucher is any program that takes our hard-earned tax dollars out of our underfunded public schools and gives them
To unaccountable private schools. It's not a popular idea
And that's why voucher proponents have had to come up with a bunch of new slogans to sell their scam
Let's walk through each one
First that's not great um, you get the gist you get the gist of 1.1 million views
Another thing he's been hitting on is um
Talking about the tops versus the bottoms. It's kind of different than how we discuss it at odds
In the friddle in New Orleans you got that dim
Yeah, but he's he's talking about the income bracket. Okay, not anything sexual. So get your head out of the gutter
But um
He has I think incorporated
A lot of like the populist left economic stuff
Into you know more of that kind of moderate cultural
Attitude and is that I mean and and that's it's good. I mean everybody's doing that now at some level
But but I think he he's really done a good job of focusing on it
And I think they separated himself from jasmine on that focus. I don't know lord if that feels right to you
Yeah, I mean this race is so interesting because it's hard to
Like put any of them into boxes that there's a lot of cross-cutting dynamics on him moderating culturally
I mean in some ways yes because
Thank you guys mentioned this earlier the
He talks about religion. It's so central to who he is that he kind of codes is a bit moderate
But he's really not on things like abortion
um
You know he
Kind of got criticized early on in the primary. Do you guys remember Terry vert? He was running in this primary
I like Terry for it. It's Austria. I'll ask around. He's in a primary tonight. Let's check him on Terry
You keep talking the house race now. Yeah, but he was in the senate race and he dropped out but he
um
He released an attack ad basically on telleriko pulled up some of his old
florist speeches that he made saying that god is by non-binary that there
Sixth genders or something like that and you can understand what telleriko might have been trying to say
Intellectually, but Terry vert's whole thing was telleriko is actually too far left
He's too progressive for a state that's as red and moderate or red and conservative as texas
So that's what I think is kind of fascinating about this race is you just he's
Causes moderate, but he's really not and you can't put any of them in this neat ideological boxes at all
One other democratic race we've not mentioned tonight
Which gained a little bit of interest because of the way that he inserted himself into the senate race is
The house
Distracted with 33 in the Dallas suburbs. I think it's the district the George W. Bush lives in and that's calling all red and Julie Johnson
um
And it's two because of this redistricting nonsense
You know two democrats got thrown in together think the initial thinking I think is that all red was gonna be a favorite there
But he like in a very weird way
Like inserted himself into the telleriko crocodile feud in a way that I think bugged a lot of people
Nothing there yet because that is in Dallas
So we'll see in about 20 minutes start to get some some numbers out of there
What are what are what are one of the democratic whispers on that race anything Lauren or Sarah you guys hearing anything on that race?
I think people were feeling pretty down on all red going into this
Which is interesting just how much his sort of stock and the party is plummeted in the past couple weeks
I mean after a lot of that his whole back and forth with telleriko
um and the crocket campaign
That was when the influencer there was an influencer in texas
Who basically um accused telleriko of saying that
All red was a mediocre black man and it created this whole identity conversation
She kind of
Missed represented about telleriko is saying he was trying to say that all red was running a mediocre campaign
Which I think is a fair statement to make considering he's no longer in the senate race um and
Crocket and all red I think kind of cynically tried to paint telleriko is being racist um
In this race, and I think that kind of backfired in some ways
I don't think that that was really um taken very well
In some corners of the party and um you saw some folks kind of come out and
um
Endorse johnson in these past couple weeks um so
Sure, so we'll watch that jade debatio says the telleriko is a white marakus a nobama
You got any takes on that that would go to my theory that he just you win and you run
Any i i want to revisit this i know i know that people would not want him to leave the texas senate seat
But the democrats do not have a frontrunner if somebody one texas it might be there might the momentum might be too hard to stop
I kind of feel that way about plan or in main. I don't i
The nobody the thing is not the field is not lighting anybody on fire
The field is not lighting anybody on fire. That's all it's 940 on March 3 and Tim is not throwing guys
One there are primaries yet protecting them out too
Also, I just telleriko
I think there's some there's gonna be a buzz candidate. It's gonna come from somewhere
Um, it's not gonna be the guy with the nazi tattoo
He might he might be able to pull it out in Maine, but I don't think it's that's gonna be the
I don't know about Sarah. I don't know about that. Okay. Can I just say julie johnson? Yeah, part of the lesbian phone tree
uh
No, er, liker. She's gonna be great
What happens on the lesbian phone tree? Is that like do you share notes on scissoring or like?
No, you can just you can just find any lesbian so like if you have if you have like a core group
From there you can find anyone like jvl said
Sarah, I need to find Allison Bechtel and what happened like minutes?
Boom
Um
Ann asked how happy I am the krenshaw might list. I do I'm hoping that
The no, it's been called tim. It's been called it
Dave Wasserman has called it. Wasserman has called it. Are you sure?
I need to see it myself. I need to see it myself. We need to do. We have a sound effects. I wind up
Steve Toff defeats representative Dan krenshaw in the texas 02 gop primary
Bring me a high noon. I'm contacting downstairs. I'm gonna have a victory cocktail
Let me tell you
The redistricting last year did krenshaw know favors
So krenshaw got fucked by his own texas state Republican party
Well, that's a shame
First of all, that's the kind of smoke people deserve for them starting this
They set off that whole arms race on that but but but krenshaw is a perfect example
Of this like corn and phenomenon that I was talking about. It is somebody who
Does not like Donald Trump, but does not like maga. It's not who he was
It's not who we wanted to be when his career in his career when he got into politics
But he made his accommodations and he wound up in the sour spot with voters where he's not
Maga enough for the people who really want maga and he's not sincere
Or like able to own his space enough to bring over dem voters or build a big coalition
Bye-bye Dan krenshaw. You were one of the people who
Did all the accommodating and this is where it got you. Somebody's phone's buzzed on their desk
I am I'm waiting for my victory drink waiting for my victory drink
Luckily, I think that there's some viewers of this live stream downstairs at my house nice to live stream at your house. Yeah, Lauren
Yeah, she's still relatively new here. I don't know their announcement, but sure Lauren
What feels better seeing a good candidate when we're seeing a terrible candidate lose
There's only one right answer to this
Whoa only one right answer
For me personally, it's seeing a terrible candidate lose. Yes, that's really satisfying
Surely satisfying, but that does speak I think to the cynicism of our time
I do think people have had a different answer about that in 2008 and that does
It does make me kind of sad
Well good riddance old Dan krenshaw
The other announcement is that it seems like
We don't really have a call on the Republican side of the Texas race
We have a call that will go to a runoff
I still think it's pretty relevant whether Ken Paxson can pick up enough ground here to pass Corden. There's just something
I don't know. There's something vibes ish about winning the first round. It doesn't
Guarantee anything in the second round of a primary, but especially in a race like this
It's basically a head to head and you've a third candidate. It's like kind of different if there's a coalition
But um, I think that's meaningful. What is hunt is good to the right of ever of these guys? What's these hunters? It's typical kind of mega
So, uh, that's nice. I was good riddance Dan krenshaw
Uh, break. We'll see you on the podcast charts. We'll be losing again
I was talking to the show
And heard you call for it
If anybody's listening, I would like a drink
Uh, Mary's on his way over to your house right now. Here's the thing about hunt
He was actually kind of a normal guy like a normie Republican until he decided he needed to get into this race
And he became a super mega like I love Trump like he just went, you know, and it
And it gave him just enough juice to force these other two into a runoff, which I got to say
There is also something that you can take pleasure from here
Which is not only his cornon already spent more on this Republican primary
Than basically any other Republican in the history of Republican Senate primaries
Now a Republican Democrat or sorry Republican donors have to fund a runoff
Uh, and that's a lot of money for Republicans to have to spend in a primary
And then a runoff
probably for Ken Paxton to win uh, and then
Do it all over again. Yeah, do it all over again. Cornon spent I believe 69 million nice uh in the primary on TV
Which is a hell of a lot and they got a couple more months now
And I think they will feel like they'll have to fund him
You know just you know, because making the bet
I guess that you save money on the back end in theory not having to try to bail out Paxton because these guys all bail out Paxton because they have no they have no morals but
Um, it is definitely
Wasted resources and a lot of the mega Republicans have noticed us. I've seen this in my feed
This could like like they're getting hit from both sides um, where like mega Republicans are like why are you wasting our money to save this desiccated old guy
Like why shouldn't we be spending it in these other states with candidates that we we like
Can I ask you a leading question
Aren't most of your questions. I mean who can say
Uh
So you had said, you know, what is the difference between John Cornington Ken Paxton right there they they'll be the same name and name of a
But if we switch it around and look at it from the point of view of a Republican voter in Texas
What is the reason you would prefer Ken Paxton a guy who should probably be in jail
Who is a serial adulterer who who would vote no
Than this other guy John Corning who is a respectable person who you voted for five times already and who also votes all the ways you want him to vote
Sarah
He's a fighter and he's more mega they think that John Corning is a phony
Uh, elitist establishment Republican right now and they see all of his overtures in
Trying to like put on a cowboy hat like they just they they think he's a fake and they think Ken Paxton
Yeah, right. No, that's true. He's part of an old guard Republican party that everybody was fine with back in the day
But now they want a mega fighter and when you try to tell people who want a mega fighter
Hey, this guy's had a lot of affairs and he's corrupt. They're like
That guy that's just like the that's just like the other guy. I really like like they're not turned off by that
I also this always takes me back. I want to add another thing to um that answer
To my favorite Sarah focus group ever
Which was over Republican voters. I believe in Georgia, Florida, Alabama. I kind of forget why you picked those three but um
We're going through various races and the voters through the mega voters
We're talking about the House candidates and they were talking about in Congress the people they like that are really getting shit done
Our Mac gates and Marjorie tailgreens a few years ago now and
They didn't know what the policies were that they passed
But they just see them out there owning the lips
And then when they start and then when we moved on to ask about the governor's race and stuff
You know, they're like yeah, I kind of like Brian camp better than whoever the mega was running at the time because
Our schools are getting better and I care about the road right like I do think that a lot of voters
Do look at Congress is like your job
Mega voters in particular your job is to make lips cry
Like to vote for crazy shit, you know, make a scene make me feel good
And and can practice and can deliver that form um I
I want to get uh lord and I'm gonna go around the horn about a telleriko thing
Bill crystal
Bill if you want to jump on here, please jump on bill is messaging us and it's like he's one of the commenters bill crystal
And he wanted to point it out
Jump on here if you want bill. We'd love to see you uh
That Bernie Sanders and the Bernie Sanders counties near Austin go in the hill country and like the Austin burbs
um
Telleriko's putting up huge numbers in the Bernie Sanders counties and
This kind of goes to a conversation we were having earlier thinking about what might work for telleriko
And it is what I'm calling the inverse of the Kamala paradox
Was it the Kamala paradox? I'm trying to brand it. So you're good at branding these things. Let's try and go Jim
It's gonna. It's the Kamala. It's a Kamala something
The Kamala Kenundrum the Kamala Kenundrum
It's a Kamala Kenundrum which is that
Lefty Bernie voters thought that she was a corporate shill
And centrist corporate shill voters
Thought that she was a California lefty. Yeah, and so she was in the sour spot
And I do think that telleriko has a chance and looking ahead to future democratic primaries
I feel like the ones are gonna succeed are the ones like the Bernie voters look at them like yeah
He's not quite Bernie enough for me
But I like that kind of that guy or gal's jib and the moderate voters like
A little lefty for me on some things, but I
I like whatever you know, what something else about them and telleriko has seen to figure that out
I don't know
Yeah, I just I think I was having a conversation with um
A strategist who's kind of in the moderate wing of the party the other day and we were talking about
populism and
What role it should play in the party. I was kind of surprised because he was like yeah
We fully recognize that the nominee in 2028 needs to be someone who embraces populism
Which is interesting because again this person barely moderate
Very much mainstream centrist wing of the party um and I think telleriko absolutely did that like he's it's been interesting
He's not really gone after trump a whole lot in his campaign. He did
He films like a little ad at the Texas state fair a couple of weeks ago
um
Noting that like fried Oreos and all these things are so much more expensive because of tariffs
He never said trump's name. He just talked about tariffs
Um, so his whole thing really is not about
Punching trump or punching the Republican party. It's all billionaires versus us
So what you have in that uh the only thing I was gonna say is that when you talk about the Kamala conundrum a lot of that comes from her not being
Uh able to cut like a really clear picture of who she was like I remember listening to voters talk about Kamala Harris all the time
And they're big complaint wasn't even too liberal or too moderate so much as I don't know what she stands for
I don't know who she is and I think with telleriko even if it's when you do the faith thing like if you've got something
That's clear for voters to grab on to so that they're like I know that person
I know what they're about like I get their vibe
Just something that really stands out to them and is sticky like that's a big piece of it
Just so they can locate you they didn't feel like they could locate Kamala Harris
In terms of who she was
Um, okay, we've got a little bit of bad news um and a little bit good news the bad news is the sham wow guy currently in sixth place
In his primary challenge against some mega person. I've never heard of John Conner
So that's too bad kind of interesting in an arc in saw race. I wanted to flag another one is uh
There's a supreme court seat there connected with constant supreme courts
It's it's one of these nonpartisan things but it's really partisan um where the incumbent is this like
You know person that believes that earth is 800 years old or whatever and that the dinosaurs and ladies live together
And um, and then there is like kind of an activist other candidate
The one against book bans and it's our can saw and the the conservative guys winning brownie 52 to 48 over atoms
But again, it's just kind of like those things are eyebrow raising you know, there was the the
Ryan Zinky dropped out in Montana this week. I like Lauren. You're gonna talk with uh
Ryan another Ryan Ryan bussy later this week about that race. He's running for congress
It's like, you know, he only won by 12 last time this Republican mega Republican guy in Montana
And if shit if an Arkansas supreme court race is four points, you know, I the field does start to open up a little bit
um
For the democrats. Are we ready for some shot in proida?
Yes, all right, um, I asked for the video of Dan Crenshaw sucking up to Donald Trump. Let's let's take a look at that
I'm just holding it
Look at Dan, where is he?
I love you, Trump
Oh, yeah, oh, you gotta come off on stage. Oh, yeah, there it is
I was gonna get a signature. Oh, yeah. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir
lick the lick the boot, Dan
lick the boot, Dan. That's too bad. I don't, Dan, I thought was supposed to be a normal one
I said this better be good, Dan
That took a long time
I said, Dan, what the hell is it? He said it's a no vote on impeachment day. That was a no
No vote on impeachment. No vote on Dan Crenshaw. That's enough to see you later, Dan
um, it's been real
We can't enjoy Dan Crenshaw losing in a primary to a mega Republican. What can you enjoy in this world, you know?
Do you remember when he made that ad where he was in a really tight
Body suit and he like oh, yeah, he like dropped himself through a window
With the matrix or something
That was embarrassing too. He's an action figure
great
Um, there's a devil. We have another let's keep doing it. We have another. We have a highlight reel
We have this is when me and Dan were debating on Pierce Crusher
It's kind of we need to music from like the from the Oscars like when somebody died
You made like that. Here's the thing Congressman frenchaw once your audience to thank
That the Republican party right now is the same as it was in 2017
And that the Donald Trump administration will be the same as it was when you brought in a bunch of traditional Republicans
To be around him and his cabinet and to work in his staff and I'm sorry
That's just an imaginary world that the congressman wants to live in to feel comfortable because what the world
We live in now is all those people. I'm sorry. Pierce. Let me finish. Let me finish all those people are gone now
And at the RNC at the box that people around
Trump is gone now
Marjorie Taylor Greene Tucker Carlson Tucker had a prominent spot to speak at the convention
Congressman Crenshaw did not this new party is a nativist party
That's going to be about mass deportations and tariffs and revenge on Donald Trump's enemies
If you don't believe me listen to what Donald Trump says and I just want to know why Congressman Crenshaw thinks
That he understands where the party is better than Trump's own vice president Mike Pence
Who assesses this and says no, this is not someone we can trust
Why does Congressman Crenshaw think that he knows better than Mike Pence about Donald Trump's character and what kind of policies he would
How's cooking
You look so young. What year was that?
Fuck you
You are the one aging me. You're making me sit here for hours watching the news. Yep. I need to cigarette after that
I
Can't get a cigarette actually
Okay, can we send him yeah to his office could we send him an edible arrangements love the bulwark? No, we could set him some soul
Edibles
Say let me tell you I this is this is um
We won't have a clip of this, but you know what else Dan Crenshaw did me doing something good. No
He threw Liz Cheney under the bus really hard like they were the same
They were like had the same views sick. She was in leadership. And then
He came out hard against her in her primary and I hope that Liz Cheney sent him a little note
Hope she's happy tonight. We end about three minutes when we get in some Dallas numbers in
And I think that once we get the Dallas numbers in
We'll probably get a call on the Texas on the Democratic side of the Senate race and we'll know a little bit about that
Collin already Joey Johnson
Lesbian on football player
battle
So we'll keep an eye on that
Lauren were you monitoring this um
Valerie Fushie race at all over North Carolina
Yeah, the fourth district. Yeah, yeah, I don't know if we have if that's been called it looks like Valerie's gonna win
But it's it's not over yet. They haven't called it. Okay. Yeah, I mean that was an interesting primary
This was I believe a rematch. I think in this primary
Basically Fushie is I think she's almost 70
She's the incumbent and she's getting a challenge from the Durham County Commissioner need a alum
Alums young she's in her early 30s
endorsed by standards
In Justice Democrats and David Hogg's groups and sort of that that cohort
um and
This race I think was a lot it was in some ways it was a generational sort of test
A bit of whether or not there's going to be a Democratic Tea Party
um
All-on was really painting her opponent is kind of backed a corporate Democrat almost back by APAC in better the AI industry things like that
So I mean, I'm interested if if Fushie kind of holds on she's one of these older Democrats who's been criticized for not really
You know kind of being asleep at the wheel sometimes, you know taking forever to come out and say something against
Trump's actions in Iran
So I don't know you it's it's hard to like read too much into any one race about what other incumbents can expect but
And a really interesting test
Um, this is an interesting race. I haven't been following um
The Texas Attorney General race and uh ship really
I once wrote an article about chip Roy uh where I called him a cowardly goldfish
Yeah, I kind of forget what I'm the cowardly goldfish now because I kind of forget what I was mattered about
But I would I remember clearly I still living in Oakland so I thought I bet I looked really young what during this phone call as well Sarah
And uh, he called me and like yelled at me for an hour
This was like when the bullet was just starting when Republicans like before they'd given up on me
They haven't given up on some of the other ones before I've all these guys that I used to work with they've given up on me
And so he called me to scream at me
But yell at me and about how like it's important to still have good Republicans in here Tim. Why are you coming after me?
I'm I still care about spending and I went against Donald Trump on impeachment and
Anyway, uh, he left Congress to run for attorney general and he's running against a guy named maze Middleton
I know nothing about maze Middleton, but if we could pull his picture up on the screen
That would be nice
We pull up a picture of maze
Middleton
Look at this guy. It's going to be a second, but here we go. Now there's some better ones. Let's keep going
Let's keep looking. Let's keep looking. Let's find his headshot. Let's find a headshot of maze Middleton
Anyway, while we effort that he is uh, he's waiting 43 to 29
Oh, over chip Roy chip Roy left Congress to run for Texas attorney general
And he is getting
Beat pretty handily by a fellow named maze
Middleton
Uh, remember the Texas Senate 11th district. You know, it looks like a uber
Part of why that's interesting is
The same picture there
There we go that man right there
That man is beating chip Roy like a drum right now. That is an alpha
You're a fighter if I've ever seen one
It's a fighter
He's crushing chip Roy in the Texas attorney general race. That's something
If you put a little hat on him, he looks like he could be he could be working in the Santa's workshop
Built in the
He's ever frame mugged anybody in his whole life. I think he has been bone smashing
Mays might be the attorney general now that is something else tough break for chip Roy and Dan Krenshaw
Krenshaw and boy. Do you guys think you're going to get any
more Republican
Retirements in the next two weeks after tonight's like as people start looking through
Again all the the weird races just places where it's a 30 point swing and stuff like that
Are more because I assume is why chip Roy didn't run and why I don't know in the next two weeks
But I think you're going to continue to see Republican retirements. Yeah, I think there's a lot of people heading for the hills
I think we've seen a lot already, but I don't think
We finished I do just but I think with chip Roy, you know chip Roy's one of those people who
Frequently doesn't vote for the speaker of the house or
doesn't or doesn't vote to pass a spending bill and
I don't know that his principled conservatism is very welcome anymore
I think people want somebody who's just going to support Trump's agenda and keep their mouth shut
Yeah, here was chip
After this was it was around January 6th. I was writing about this trump deserves universal condemnation
for what was clearly impeachable conduct
chip came around like they all did and the people just didn't believe it
So you got telleriko up by eight here with about half the vote in we're waiting on Dallas and I think that is
Gonna be
Pretty telling I'll start to start to peek at you if you have questions for us
Did I say San Antonio was West Texas somebody tell me I didn't I mean it's west of Austin
I'm aware that San Antonio's not West Texas. I watch landman. Okay. I watch landman
I know what's that. I know where West Texas says um
Lauren. Did you know that James Taleriko is not Hispanic?
Um, yes
Although I believe in the goal. Get the goal. I'm just saying
Mexico
Taleriko rhymes with more than regga
Um
You know, I think I think it did benefit Taleriko a lot like it's weird in these Texas races
There usually is like a spoiler
Hispanic candidate from
The Rio Grande Valley like a Dalga County or something and that that didn't happen this time
So Taleriko's really running up the score down there. I'm just looking at this
Right now like Cameron County
His Brownsville 63 34
Web County
65 31
Taleriko's really really running up the score with the uh with his banks
We'll we'll keep that. We'll take a look at your questions as we listen isn't Taleriko
um
Is it south of Austin San Antonio is south and west of Austin? Is it not? Am I crazy? Am I losing my mind?
I don't know. This is a fun geography question, but uh
Uh
Lauren
Yes, do you know so I don't need you to be Steve Kornaki here, but if if Steve Kornaki was here
He would be trying to tell us how many votes are in Dallas
That are possible and whether or not that would be enough to overcome the current
eight point gap
That currently exists between Crockett and Taleriko now. I don't know how many
Votes are there, but I see three hundred and twelve thousand for in Dallas
I got it just in the Democrats. Um, I'm not wearing khakis, but I'll be there
That I mean, that's that's obviously Crockett's home base. Um, I don't think
I don't know if there's enough
Where she could conceivably right now. We'll tell you this
Jazz James Hariko leads by a hundred thousand votes right now. There are three hundred thousand votes in Dallas
You guys can do the math or you can just look at Dave Wasserman, but we only have half the vote
Dave Wasserman over a district. He's seen enough James Hariko wins the Texas Senate Democratic
And uh, we'll head on to a general election against either John Cornyn or
Ken Paxton one of the big concerns that a lot of people have Lauren
I'm gonna ask you about this and we can let you pop if you want to about a general election with Taleriko
Is that it did it got kind of nasty with Crockett and there's some folks out there making the case that Taleriko is gonna have trouble turning out black voters in Texas now
Texas and Georgia
You know the percentage of the black mode is not as great as it is in some of these other states the raw number
There's a ton of black voters in Texas like the second or third most to any state, but um
What what's your sense of that like is that kind of be priority number one for him or like what are people saying about
And what a Taleriko been saying about how he's gonna you're trying to motivate black voters after kind of I can touch his primary with with Crockett
Yeah, I think that's gonna be one of the main things
Right out the gate that he's going to have to focus on I mean his strategy here was clearly
He knew that Crockett was gonna
win the black vote by a lot
So his play here was to run out the score with white voters and Latino voters um
Not to say that he didn't go into some black areas in campaign there
But that was not his primary focus in this in this primary race
So that's gonna be a major thing that he's gonna have to work on coming out of this primary Crockett
I will say has a role to play there and that is going to be interesting
to
I think before tonight it was very clear that Taleriko was a bit more of a team player
I mean he he made very clear to his supporters that if Crockett wins
We are all gonna go knock doors. We're gonna help her win this race
Um, and then Crockett's campaign put out a statement basically saying like we'll support whoever wins
But it didn't come from her you know, there's just like a different level of sort of commitment that you felt from the two of them
So I'm curious to see what she does coming out of this um
And how much she kind of helps the driver mr
Obama's been on the sidelines and you know not done a lot
But he has popped out in campaign season from time to time
And I know that he and Taleriko have talked and I wouldn't be surprised if he was called in to
Help with that um
All right, Loni, you got any other final thoughts for us?
If you want to pop off then we'll just kind of go around the horn and close things down the three of us. That's great
Thanks guys
We'll look to your guys questions because if any questions thoughts um here before we let you all go
um
The Arkansas Supreme Court race just one of the things I want to mention it does look like the bag the the
Christian Nationals guys gonna win there
But the the Democratic Align person is overperforming Kamala in Arkansas by 52 points right now and so I just
You know again off off year whatever like special election
But primary night
But I just can you continue the positives for me the positive takeaways and we'll get to kind of go around and take
aways and go to questions um is
Dan Crenshaw
Bites the dots see you later Dan
Democrats do continue to overperform in these specials and and the Texas Senate races, you know
That nobody's getting good and counting their chickens on it, but it feels more in play than it did an hour ago for the Democrats
Yes, um, and and I saw a question in the chat that I think is a good one
Which is it was it was asking where do the hunt voters go right because this is this is the question so right now in this
Cornon is up by about two points
Over Ken Paxton, but I believe Wesley hunt has like 12 points. That's a lot, right? That's a big
chunk that he got as a as a third candidate
Um, and I think hunts people go
To Paxton um feels like it, right? Yeah, I mean, so you so first of all hunt ran as like the ultra mega guy
Even though I don't think that's quite who he is um and he's also he's a young black guy
Uh, and so I think that these are voters in Texas who are like I want something new and different and I don't think that the new and different crowd
Goes back to cornon. I think that's something, right? Yeah
That's right. Yeah, you have two challengers in an incumbent the what are the chances that the challengers voters are gonna say
Oh, actually, I really want the same
yeah
Um, the uh algreen um
I mentioned I just want to bring that in one more time because just interesting the generational change out of this Christian
Manifee is the young guy to watch handsome guy um and uh he seems to be like he looks like he's gonna be winning
That primary over algreen hasn't been called yet, but he he's up by he's up by six points um
JBL, do you have any other uh final thoughts before we take some questions and get out of here?
Yeah, I do uh there's you go pull out today
showing that
Trump's strong disapproved number is now 51%
His overall approval is down to 38%
This
This starts to look
say
It starts to look like things could really
Like the bottom could fall out
Right, we could go down to 35
Bush line. Bush line. Bush line. I'm just saying. I mean nothing if you look around and say so what are the things that get better for him
I mean, I guess he could stop warring
He could stop doing his war
He could stop doing tariffs, but I don't know like it
I don't want to be optimistic JBL well. Yeah, love that. Can I sorry?
I've just one other little tidbit which is um
Kamala Harris endorsed Crockett, which was one of the questions Jesse said that which endorsement was worse
Trump for Herschel Walker or Kamala for Jasmine Crockett Trump for Herschel Walker was a jasmine Crockett both um like
Was not an abuser who played Russian roulette all the time psychopath, but um
But I do think it is
I was a tough one for Kamala to jump in and try to test
her ability to
Move voters
Because that didn't it didn't work out that way um
So yeah, well, what did she do it as ability to test voters? What if she did it as like hey jasmine Crockett is a black woman trying to set something
Trying to do something historic and that's fine
That's fine
Well, hold on the question is not whether you're respected or whether because her reasons can be
Perfectly good. It's more of a
It means like Trump could endorse somebody and pull them over the finish line no problem
And so it is a test of who juice with voters
It's not a thing. It's just a test of political
Also, yeah zero juice, but also political skill and let's say this. I like Kamala first line
Got to meet her a few times. I like her and I and I you know to to make this even Stephen
We're we're ripping on Jeb today on the TNL for his
Comment on our Iran. I like to Jeb
Jeb didn't really have any juice like Jeb's political skills that without that great. He's a good governor
He he wasn't politically that strong and his instincts went back great politically on the national scale
um
And we've now seen from Kamala
Okay primary campaign that was bad
um, you know some bad political instincts as VP I think some bad ones in the post
Campaign choices and this race it's like you're going back to that sour spot the Kamala conundrum
It's like it was kind of a half-sea endorsement, right? She did a she did a
Auto dial for something a phone call to went to evil's houses. So it was like
Not enough to really help her
To help Crockett
But enough to
Annoy people that were on Dalariko's side, right? And so it's like well, what was the point of doing that?
It's just it's showed I think a lack of political judgment that
We've seen a couple of cases with her so anyway
Not a huge deal, but but not particularly savvy endorsement of the breaking news here. I think okay
What polls just park them Tina Peters? Oh, fuck did we have to do this live?
You have to come at me as Jeb and Jared pull us in the same
I'm sorry. I thought this was a live cast as news. We're gonna we want to break the whole hold this
I'm gonna try to confirm you you talked in okay. I'm gonna answer one of these questions because I have an answer to this um
Odie Tavish, I think
Adie Tavish um asked now are any of these races we're donating to or do we want to wait till?
Help up smaller down ballot candidates later. I'm gonna work on this project
It is coming soon
Where I'm gonna highlight some races that I think are super interesting to donate to
If you're so inclined
And the races that I
Think are the where you get the most bang for your buck
Are going into red states and districts where there isn't already going to be a ton of funding
So I kind of think Tavariko is going to be pretty well funded. I don't think that's a waste of money
But the races I'm looking at Mary Peltola Alaska
Making sure she's really well-funded. I think it's going to be important for the Democrats
And I don't know if that's going to be as high a priority from the big ticket donors
Maybe the island Kansas Senate races. Let's see how those shake out. I think those are also stretch races that
A Democrats are almost as likely to win as Texas, but won't have as much attention on them
And then he'll he'll hold a bunch of house districts
I mentioned that Montana House race earlier Ryan bus. He's a really good candidate former
Gunwrites advocate. He's kind of like the
Sarah of gun rights, you know, he's he's flipped and
And seen things from the inside and
It's still still an active gun owner and user, but wants to see
reforms and and and but is not is really in step with Montana
12 point race as I mentioned earlier like that something so I'll put together a list for people
Coming up here in the next few weeks, but yeah
Don't donate yet. We are going to we will talk a lot about these things. Yeah
Fact check polis is not yet part of Tina Peters
He's simply put out a tweet saying that here a Democrat has been just
given probation for a thing which is just as serious as what Tina Peters did
And he really has to look forward to the equal application of the laws
That's what he's thinking about right now
But he's going to part of Tina Peters. Well don't make me text you at polis right now
I'm enjoying myself. I'm enjoying where you don't do it Jared. Don't do it. Don't do it
Guys, he's not gonna listen to me. Let's let's let's just do a quick recap because it's been a good night actually
I'm sorry. I don't optimistic. So I had to even things out Sarah. Yeah. Okay. I that's that's you that that tracks
But this was a really strong night and I want to say I
I actually maybe liked Jasmine Crockett more than one might think I I tend to
Think that right now she did not run a very good campaign, but I I sort of like
The gutsy like let's try like let's me a fighter like you're gonna need some of that energy
And I really hope she does go to bat for James Talrico going into this that would be like a strong move on her part
But I do think Talrico was the best choice in terms of putting a seat in play
And I'm just gonna say again
Republicans now have already spent more on this Senate fight
Between Corning and Paxton
Then they wanted to now they've got to spend more money on a runoff and this is gonna be a competitive Senate race in Texas now
And so for those of you who are disappointed about Jasmine Crockett, I understand
But I do think everybody should
Think hard like and look nobody's here being polyannish about waves or anything else or it's just that
For Texas to be in play when you're seeing these big swings
It means it's worth looking at and I'm somebody who
Last go around I was like leave Texas alive. It's not gonna happen
But I think you know Ohio now will look very competitive in this type of environment
Especially for an award where you got shared Brown
Running and so this is a good first step in my opinion
All right, everybody close out well recent Bollard podcast guess Bobby Polito and Bollard fan and um
Musician what's what kind of music does he do not Latina music?
Anyway, whatever
It's not my cup of tea exactly, but he was great. I liked him a lot
Very interested candidate. Sorry. We have one thing I'm in the chat from Matt Marshall our buddy
Texas Supreme Court is temporarily blocked a Dallas judges order to keep the polls open until nine
And ordered the county to separate out votes from people who are not in line at seven p.m
This is not a final ruling, but we'll create chaos and getting the results. So why would they possibly do that?
The
It's almost as if you think
Tehano music is the kind of music I was talking about the volume leader does
It's almost as if the Republicans that run Texas want people to not have faith in elections
So it makes it easier for them to steal them. It's almost as if that. It's almost as if they're trying to defund
Elections of the administration and make this as hard as possible and as confusing as possible
So they can do shenanigans in the future. That's just something to keep an eye out. So that's a negative thing on the positive side
James Telleriko
Renegade campaign
With a big win over Jasmine Crockett on the Republican side John Cornyn and
Ken Paxton are going to a runoff
Which means that they're gonna have to spend a lot of rich Republicans money trying to prop
John Cornyn up
That's great. We like that
Dan Crenshaw good riddance
Lost a primary to a Mr. Toath
Tough titties for you
Dan Crenshaw and does some democratic overperformance in other places. So
Generally a good night. We appreciate you guys for doing this with us
We have made many primary nets ahead. So yes leave some comments
Let us know what you thought about how this things went
We will take your notes. I'll take your negative criticisms
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