The Casino enters the arena + Guillermo Rauch of Vercel on AI factory builders

Is the AI bubble popping—or just catching its breath? Eric Newcomer and Tom Dotan spar over Nvidia jitters, Sam Altman’s “bubble” dinner, the MIT “95% fail” headline, app-vs-model margins (Cursor, Claude Code), and Chamath’s SPAC-as-casino shtick. Then Eric sits down with Vercel founder/CEO Guillermo Rauch for a fast, idea-dense jam: assistants → agents → multi-agent teams, why GPT-5’s real story is coding, “vibe coding” and code-last workflows, who gets paid in the era of AI factory-builders, whether to study CS, why taste beats code, and Guillermo’s six-month prediction for a breakout vertical agent.

00:00 Did the AI “bubble” pop? Altman dinner & sell-off vibes
01:16 MIT survey “95%” headline vs reality
09:04 Capitalism, incentives & Chamath’s SPAC “casino”
18:17 Interview starts — Guillermo Rauch (Vercel)
22:07 GPT-5 reality check & the “Einstein-in-a-box” test
37:37 Future of engineering + should you study CS?
48:36 6-month prediction: a breakout vertical agent; underestimating GPT-50