0:00
Oh, welcome back to the country. I don't know what happened to GCJ then.
0:03
She went missing on me, but I've got a, and I've also got from Jardin,
0:08
head of derivatives, dairy analyst. I was going to say Miles Hurrell.
0:13
That's a Freudian slip. Let's try Mike McIntyre.
0:17
Mike, we might start with Miles. Do you think Winston's being a bit uncharitable,
0:21
sort of slamming him for taking the money and running?
0:25
Yeah, just for slamming with the first place, I think he's done a fantastic job.
0:28
So, but no surprise, though, I don't guess. And even if this is an opportunity, does he?
0:33
So, power for the course.
0:35
Yeah, we wish Miles Hurrell all the best. I'm still hearing rumours, mind you.
0:39
I got it wrong with Porol Yolo, Wayne Langford. He's on the show a bit later in the week
0:45
about standing in West Coast Tasman. Although I do know there will be some interest in candidates there.
0:53
I'm hearing Miles may still be interested in New Zealand rugby. That's out of the frying pan
0:58
into the fire. It wouldn't be without its challenges, but if anyone's good for their job,
1:03
it's perhaps something. I think he'd be great. He's good for New Zealand rugby,
1:07
between him and David Kirk. They would tidy it up, a couple of smart business people.
1:12
Right, let's have a look at that. Global dairy trade auction overnight made it six in a row,
1:17
only up 0.1% whole milk powder, down 4%. What's with skim milk powder? We can't get enough of it.
1:25
That's right. I think that's actually quite favorable for the outcome for the rest of the season
1:29
as well, because if you have a look at the combination of skim and butter or even skim and aim,
1:33
if they both outperform whole milk powder returns quite substantially. To see skim hold its own,
1:39
especially at this time of the year where the big northern hemisphere sellers come online,
1:45
it's good for New Zealand dairy, I think. All this is happening amidst a backdrop of this
1:51
economic and trade turmoil almost around the world and a bit of a glut, certainly a good supply
2:02
of dairy products. We're effectively with these prices swimming against the tide.
2:09
We are, but the world has changed in terms of what everyone's producing. On the
2:13
States, in the last couple of years, they've introduced another 9 billion in processing assets to
2:18
really capture that protein seam. In the States now, in stacking bars and convenience foods,
2:25
everything's got added protein. The fascination with protein hasn't been missed by the dairy
2:28
industry over there. Rather processing milk into skim milk powder, which is basically the core
2:34
ingredient, or the base ingredient, they're finding higher returns for the milk. As such,
2:40
we've seen a constraint in terms of the amount of skim they're able to send into the market.
2:43
I think New Zealand's really benefited from that. We had a good run last night, obviously,
2:48
prices well up and certainly introduced that premium again over European products,
2:53
but we're trading in a discount to US skim prices, which is typically doesn't happen.
2:59
Yeah, we're trading at it, because you threw the numbers at me, you said,
3:02
I equated them to hear the dupler cell, and we're trading at quite a discount to the Chicago
3:06
mercantile, whatever it's called. The CME, the Chicago mercantile exchange, yeah.
3:11
I nearly got it. Yeah, no, you were there. Yeah, essentially, a dollar-ade
3:16
to your pound, it was this morning on their value auction, which translates into close to $4,000
3:21
a ton, and as you said, we're about $35, I think, and probably a little surprising,
3:28
skim milk powder is trading only a small discount to home milk powder, and essentially then,
3:32
for you're not valuing the true amount of the fat return. So you'd rather put money,
3:37
the fatten to sorry, and to AMF and butter and get a better return in process for the milk
3:42
and to home milk powder at the time of year. We must be getting close to a stage in the season,
3:46
Mike McIntire, where effectively we've locked down this season's payout. When do we kind of
3:54
get past the peg in the sand on that one? Well, certainly by the end of next month,
3:58
so certainly by the end of April, you've got a pretty good idea in terms of what it's going to be,
4:02
but as you say, we're getting pretty close to knowing what it is. I think the low-end,
4:06
the Fonteurans current guidance at 920 is probably in the revision mirror now. I think probably
4:13
950 is looking like more like a minimum, and certainly the futures are same at to us,
4:19
but yeah, give us another few weeks, we're a couple more GDT events, and we'll have a
4:22
pretty good idea on the number, I think. So where are the futures serving at for 2627?
4:28
2627 seasons last at 963. I think probably they we can attach this one in just in terms of the
4:34
dependence on Hommel powder for that price, and obviously that was a disappointing result.
4:39
Mainly, again, on the result of China, not 2D up to the auction, typically they're by well
4:44
over half of the Hommel powder scamming butter, and they were well down on both Hommel powder and
4:49
butter, and only 5.5% of the scam. So that's probably the one concern I take out of that auction,
4:55
just the stepping back of their demand, which has obviously been key to the success of the
4:59
New Zealand season otherwise. Have you got a keen to wage, or has it, I guess, as to who the next
5:06
Chief Executive Fonterra might be, if it was an internal appointment? I'm not up to speed in
5:14
who the can. Well, you're into the futures markets, surely you can give us something.
5:19
Well, I'll try my own head in the name, and name in the hatchery, you know, I'd be with
5:24
look on the other side of the coin, yeah. Yeah, well, 6 million bucks, why wouldn't you?
5:28
Okay, Mike McIntyre out of Chardon. Thanks to your time. Always appreciate it.