The Economy Is Sending Trump a WARNING Republicans Can’t Ignore

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1:04Welcome to Raging Modern, some SkyGalloy. And I'm Jessica Tarla. Before we get started, make sure to hit subscribe to support our show. All right, Jess, let's bust into it. Bond markets are flashing of warning. The 10 year treasury just hit 4.81%. While the 30 remains at levels, we haven't seen this persistently for 20 years. And there's plenty of reasons for concern. A $2 trillion deficit, I mean, just to think about those five trillion and receipts, seven trillion spending, and potentially billions and tear free funds, a fed that could raise rates to fight inflation, although I don't think that's going to happen. So this all creates a lot of chaos and the graphical, political mass heading into the midterms for the current administration, and economic problems, or structural problems that we just don't seem to want to have an adult conversation around. Jess, what do you think about the Republicans? It feels like they're just ignoring the economic signals here and the interest of continuing to keep Trump and this, what I'll call,

2:04induced coma of happiness around everything's fine. Thought? You know, I don't know why they haven't taken the opportunity to learn from the Democrats' mistakes in 2024. We spent a lot of time telling people how good they had it. Whether that was, you know, fastest recovery in the G7, which I'm a broken record, like that is not a good bumper sticker for people. They don't actually care how fast your recovery was on a comparative basis. They care about their grocery bill today. It feels like maybe it's actually a human problem, more than a mind problem for them, like that they can read the numbers, but they can't get themselves to behave like real human beings about this where they could actually find the words to talk about people's struggles and find connection with them, which is why Republicans aren't doing any of these town halls. I understand it's not fun to get pelted with criticism of everything from the war in Iran,

3:07to healthcare, to AI data centers, which we're going to talk a lot about. But it feels like they're not built of the right stuff to be able to meet this moment. And then you have the added anxiety that Donald Trump will probably come after you if you make comments in an even relatively public forum that flies in the face of his narrative that this is the best economy that America has ever had. So it does feel like they're on a trajectory for a walloping on November 3rd as a result of how bad things are in the economy. But my anxiety is kicking in. Like I got a couple days where I feel really good, you know, I get my adrenaline shots like I'm with James Tallerico and I'm like, hell yeah, we're going to win Texas. And then I look at the map and you look at what it takes, how much money it takes, the type of persuasion it takes to get people who have a fundamentally negative view of politicians

4:10in general and also the Democratic Party, even if it's trending in a better direction. And I just think, are we going to have proverbial egg on our faces? And I'm not just saying that because I'm wearing yellow today, though it's more Easter than egg, I think. Good clarification. Just to do, interest rates is one of those very boring things that has a huge impact on people without them even realizing the impact. So just kind of a brief splinter, if you will. The government spends more money than it takes in and it has to finance that shortfall. And so it turns to the bond market and it says, loan us money in exchange, we'll promise to pay it back. And the market says, all right, if I'm going to loan you 100 bucks, you have to pay me more back. And based on the risk that you will be able to pay that back and other opportunities for me to loan people money determines how much I need you to pay me in order to lend you $100. And that's the yield or the interest rate. And because of these structural, I don't know, these structural

5:12issues are specifically irresponsible governments all over the world who, because of a democratic process that is sort of short term politicians and the people who elect them want to spend more money and more have more services than pay taxes, which results in deficits, which create greater risk that the government borrowing that money is going to be able to potentially not pay it back at some point. So I want more money for more risk. In addition, and this is a good story, there's more competition for that money because there are so many companies that have such incredible appetites for capital accessing the same investors. The investor says, well, I can loan the government 100 bucks or I can loan in video 100 bucks. And I'm going to see who pays me more. Now, the downside is that we are now borrowing money to pay for the interest on money we used to borrow, which can inspire the sort of upward spiral of inflation. And effectively, what, if you look

6:14at economic history, every fiat currency has failed because eventually the political pressure to borrow more money than you're taking in becomes so great that dollars become meaningless. And then ultimately inflation kicks in and you end up with YMAR Germany, where people are are carrying wheel barrels of cash to pay for a loaf of bread. It's especially interesting now because I mean, a few things have happened. What people missed in the latest news was that the underlying job market is actually pretty weak. Payrolls fell 23,000 in July against an expectation of an increase in 80,000. And unemployment did improve to 4.1%. But it's misleading. The only reason it did that is because people left the labor force. They just gave up. And so that's, it's not really a strong labor market. It's a shrinking denominator. Dressed up as somewhat good news. And then mortgage rates, which are pegged to the 10 year, which is up 60 basis points since January, are now at about 6.6%. Which further cements this problem of these unexploded IEDs called existing mortgages where nobody wants to sell their house. And so as

7:18result, the entrance or people building families looking for us find a, you know, a dearth of supply, which again further increases housing prices. So you have an increase in mortgage rates, less supply. And again, that just creates this nitron glycerin of unaffordability. And people, young people feel discouraged. The notion though that the Fed is going to increase interest rates because of the demand into quell inflation, that would be like performing surgery on the hand that writes your check. I mean, that would, if, if worse were to actually increase interest rates right now, that would be, that would go down as kind of like a profile encourage. I just don't think he's going to do that. He's not going to cut interest rates. But I don't think, I don't think I don't think he's going to raise them. And one of my favorite things is that the only adult in the cabinet is the 10 year. And that is the market is like, you know, it's like that, that that great tick-tock of, you know, honey badger don't give a shit. The 10 year doesn't care

8:23what the president's priorities are. It just looks at millions of data points and what institutional investors are demanding to lend the government money. But I do think there's an opening and I might be kidding myself or deluding myself. But I do think there's an opening for a democratic candidate to be the adult in the room and outline an actual fiscal plan or structural remedies that attempt to address this deficit because it is, it is, you know, the bond market and the deficit don't matter until they do. And it feels as if they are starting to matter here. Any, any closing thoughts before we move on to the data center controversy? Well, prof g class is in session if you do say so yourself. No, I wanted to add to that. I worked on the polling team that was trying to help the Simpson-Bulls commission when that existed. And, you know, getting people to care about the boring stuff, which actually does have tremendous implications for their lives, I'd say definitely in the long term, but sometimes even more in the

9:26short term as we had, we're barreling towards these dates where entitlements become insolvent, right? It used to be something that we kind of talked about amorphous lyrics. They'd say, oh no, what are you 20, 30 years from now? And now you're like a few years away from these kinds of things. And one of our central findings was that it is just not of interest to anybody on the election trail. And there are obviously ways that you can formulate your survey question to get the result that you're looking for on, you know, issues around Medicare for all, for instance. And then when you dig down into it, you see that people actually want to be able to keep their doctors, or that they would actually prefer some sort of public-private mashup, which is what a bond-me-care was supposed to accomplish for us. And the same thing works with bringing down the deficit. But I think the idea that we're going to be getting any cooler heads and, you know, smart talking about what's going on with the bond market or treasuries now almost officially in

10:29campaign season, it'll kick off next Tuesday, right, right after Labor Day, is wishful thinking. So there could be some adults in the room, like a Josh Shapiro maybe is going to talk about this loosely. But Democrats have to figure out what are the three things that are actually going to animate people, get them to the polls, and then choosing Democrats. And I feel like this conversation is going to be completely lost on them. And early on, when we started raging moderates, we're actually in person together. So it must have been like really early on. We were going through, you know, all of the ways that these concepts that feel foreign or just kind of meaningless to people actually affect your daily lives, like what you just did with mortgage rates, right. And I think that focusing on bringing our economic realities to life in that sense, you know, talking about your credit card bills, talking about your mortgage rates, talking about your rent, which is a lot of what the progressives are able to do. I think quite well would be smart in this moment instead of just,

11:29you know, railing agrants, how out of touch, a Scott Besson or Kevin Haset or Howard Lutnik looks in an interview. Yeah, and what's interesting or one of the things that struck me in the notes here is that CalShi has the odds of a hike coming in 2026. It's 73%. And I don't think CalShi has ever gotten a rate hike prediction wrong. I think they're batting 100%. And so the idea that worse would have high, yeah, that would be extraordinary. I mean, maybe not actually kill him, but like, it's be pretty early to take that big of a swing against what the president wants for Kevin Warsh. Yeah, but yeah, I, I agree. I mean, at least theoretically, the notion of a 12 year appointment and you can't be removed by the president is to create an independent Fed, which is key to an economy that runs independently of political pressure, but it would be extraordinary, but we'll, so we'll, we'll see. Are you a pet owner? Every six seconds, a pet owner in the US gets hit with a vet bill over a thousand

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13:41This is Advertiser Content from IBM. Cold take. When it comes to quantum computing, if you need a million cubits to calculate anything, it sounds like you need a quantum computer the size of a football field. So why are we even trying? My name is Olivia Lanes. I am the global lead for content and education at IBM Quantum. So you will not need a quantum computer the size of a football field. The quantum chip is really the size of a stamp. So the chip itself is never going to be the size of a football field. What could be a very large footprint is all of the infrastructure that goes around cooling it, housing the chip, and controlling it. IBM has really been, I think, the biggest pioneer in terms of making this technology accessible. IBM has deployed at this point over 90 quantum computers

14:44worldwide. So if we talk about scaling, I will just say we have a plan. We have what it takes engineering and science-wise to make these computers work and to build them up to the scale that we know they will be useful. If you would like to learn more, you can do so at idm.com slash quantum. The Trump administration is also doubling down on AI, particularly the rapid growth of AI data centers, about 70% of Americans opposed building one in their community, including 48% who strongly oppose it. Trump says that communities that are against them are open quote, want to be backwards and poor while commerce secretary Howard Lutnik says concerns about water use are propaganda from US adversaries. So this is just this has become a hot button issue. What's really interesting here is it's one of the few things that has bipartisan support or I would say bipartisan lack of support. It just seems to piss off everybody. What does your take on this and how it might

15:50impact the elections? Well, I think it's going to be a very big deal in the elections and I think that Republicans didn't expect that it would be this salient. It kind of feels like a a title wave, right? That can look kind of innocent way out there and as it gets closer and closer to the shore, you realize, are we heading into tsunami territory where it is coming up in every single political discussion on the right and the left. If you are holding a town hall, you are going to hear about this. People are protesting outside about it. They are writing to their representatives calling their offices. They don't want it. And Democrats save for Abigail Spanberger who has doubled down. So Virginia has the most data centers of any state in the country. She said it our economic future depends on meeting the moment when it comes to progress with AI. It's a huge economic boom. I'm going to be careful about it, but I am certainly not invoking a

16:51moratorium or like a Josh Shapiro. I really double using him as a reasonable person who has this a nuanced take, let's say, which is what I think people want to hear. Like I hear you. I also don't want to give up what a big plus point it could be for our communities. So we'll go from there. But the fact that Republicans are either fully on board and have Donald Trump saying, you know, you want to be backwards and poor if you don't want data centers is not helping any of them. You know, microadgers trying to flip flop a bit on it can pack in as well. And Democrats are just running ad after ad with their old statements on it. I was talking to a Republican strategist this morning who said that he thinks that data centers is the central issue in the Ohio Senate race and that it could deliver it for shared brown because, first of all, not a great candidate on the right with John Houston. But that brown has been able to be very effective about this. I don't know

17:54if you saw this, but it really struck me. So Twitter, now known as acts, I publish a report that they found 200,000 suspected in authentic accounts and roughly 200 of them this from China, who have been quietly trying to influence the American AI debate, specifically in opposing AI data centers on social media. The posts include content about how AI strange the electricity grid increases utility prices and quote cartoons that depicted data center operators enriching themselves at the public's expense. So when I think about the discourse on data centers, I'm like, check, check, check, check, check. I see all of that in the conversation. And I'm not saying that it is all due to these bots that are out there, but it certainly wouldn't be beneath the Chinese or any of our adversaries to think, Oh, I could throw a few bots onto American social media, especially knowing how sensitive the algorithm is these days. Like if your eyes stay for a second longer on something, you suddenly can't get away from that topic. It feels like for a week. And I wonder how much of

18:57this is our enemy is rooting against us properly, harnessing or even tackling what's going on with AI. And people are not falling for it because I know there are real concerns, but are getting more ginned up about it as a result. Oh, look, if you look at some of my social media posts around controversial issues as a relates to the Trump administration, I would estimate somewhere between 50 and 80% of the comments are bots. And then the question becomes, well, who has an incentive in creating more arguments and making us feel worse about each other? By the way, we do this. We have a side-optic group that spreads propaganda across the territory and populations of our adversaries. They'd be stupid not to be doing this. You can spend two or three billion dollars on an aircraft carrier or you can spend millions to basically divide us internally. It just, I don't think people recognize just how much damage social media has done to our society. But they weaponize this

20:00poor's platforms with management teams that are totally focused on engagement and numbers they can publish to advertisers saying, look at all the engagement and all the activity we have. But there is so much noise in terms of our political opinions or our public policy opinions being shaped by bad actors or at a minimum people who aren't who they say they are. Let's go specifically to the data center debate. I mean, some of the concerns are one power. And when you, we just saw that headline inflation around electricity prices is up 7% versus a consumer price index at 2.9. That is a real number. And people have a legitimate concern that they, if their electricity prices go up and open AI and anthropic, go public at 1 in 2 trillion dollar valuations and effectively an increase in middle class households electricity bill is nothing but a transfer of wealth from them to a bunch of basically white dudes in their 30s and they're not down for that. They're not down for saying, okay, my air

21:02condition, it's going to cost me more air condition in my house. So it's out these guys I've never met can become worth 400 billion, not 300 billion. So the data center debate has kind of become a vessel for frustration around technology and income inequality. The concerns around power consumption and electricity prices are real. I believe the hate to tell how, you know, give Howard Luck an incredible, but I do think a lot of the concerns around water usage are overblown even at even if we build all the data centers that are envisioned, which we won't, they would use about 3 to 5% of the water that golf courses use. And the majority, I believe, or a great number of the data centers being planned, leverage what's called a closed loop system where they basically use the same water, recirculate the water, the environmental concerns, I think, on our case by case basis. But what I worry about is that these moratoriums, these blanket moratoriums, which basically say to state and local bureaucrats, you're an idiot. So I'm putting in this kind of blanket

22:03crude instrument called a moratorium is going to one increase. And this will be a good thing. The market will demand more guarantees subsidies around local electricity prices for data centers to offer the local communities. That will be good for the local communities that agree to have them. This, in my opinion, is going to be a transfer of wealth from blue states who are more politically sensitive to these populist movements and put in places blanket moratoriums that sometimes are not economical to red states and say, come on, come all, we're open for business. And what people don't recognize is there are instances where local officials do their jobs, ensure that the electricity prices or that there's distinct power sources, ensure the environmental concerns are addressed. And also, these data centers do pay, and the reason why Virginia loves them and Abysm Ambriger and Virginia loves them is that they do pay property taxes. There is some employment and they don't call the police department ICE or the fire department. So they can be, they can be quite frankly, a creative to your local

23:06economy and they can be kind of good citizens. And I worry that a lot of that economic growth when responsibly managed is just going to seed from blue states to red states. Now, let Nick blame all of this on Chinese propagandas a little bit like in this goes to what you were saying about, the mistake the Democrats made, that when someone's complaining of a fever, you don't say all your fevers Chinese propaganda and refuse to take their temperature. So that's not that is a tone death move. But I do worry that this is a bit populist and is going to result in a leakage of economic power from blue to red states. Just what we need right before the census totally screw blue states is to have this. I just wanted to add because I think it's the element that kind of underlies this entire conversation is that the reaction to data centers is often an emotional one. And people are scared. And this is what happens at moments in history where something big is happening, right, where transport is going to change, where technology is

24:08going to change like when we got the internet, it was very unsettling for people. And my dad always said to me that it is the number one job of the government to alleviate as much anxiety of the people as possible. I love them universal healthcare. Totally. As you know, I listen, as a question of how you do these things in practice. But if you are not signaling to the people who a pay your salary and sent you to Washington or even your local officials with these very important jobs that you understand that they are afraid and can deal with that. And that you may not have a solution on day one, but you're working really fucking hard to figure out how these communities can avoid being left behind because we saw this. I mean, this very reminiscent to remember the debate over what kind of energy the country is going to run on. And there were all of these people working coal mines in West Virginia, which totally makes sense that Trump really

25:10tapped into that in the first election, where he said, I'm going to stop the country from changing too much. And part of that implicitly was some of the racism that the browning of America was a problem. But it's still the same fundamental feeling that I can't hold on fast enough for what's coming. And not enough people in leadership are standing up and a recognizing that that's what's going on here. And then also having a decent solution that marries economic progress and technological progress with the realities of being a human being. And knowing that if you walk into traffic, you're going to be scared of the fact that you might be hit by a car or a bus or if a data center pops up down the road from you, what are the implications going to be for your employment, your quality of life, and then your children's lives by extension. Yeah, there's this goes to kind of a broader existential point. And that is where do you find happiness and purpose and meaning? And I think in the United States, we've equated happiness and purpose in the government's

26:14role in that with economic growth. And if you look at the nations that are actually happiest, economic growth and prosperity or wealth is important. But what distinguishes countries in northern Europe from the US, where they feel better about their government, and generally speaking, their populace is happier is that happiness isn't just a function of the things you can get and have. It's an absence of anxiety from things that can be taken from you. And that is, while they pay higher tax rates and probably think, well, my son is less likely to be a billionaire graduating from the University of Stockholm and from MIT, I know that he's not going to go bankrupt if his wife gets lung cancer. And I think that's a big mistake we make in the US is we equate happiness with solely with economic outcomes and with the likelihood that your son might be or your daughter might be a billionaire. And I like what your dad said that a big role of government is to try and remove

27:15as much anxiety and as much fear from the populace as possible. I'd add fame, fame and money. Oh, you know, the average person living in Copenhagen isn't thinking like, how do I become a social media influencer and, you know, make super quick money and cut all these corners. They're thinking about, you know, a more traditional life, maybe by our standards. But one that is going to reap longer term happiness compared to our models. Yeah, I just, I was coming back to the same place. The most accretive thing our government could do would be universal child care and some sort of single-payer nationalized or socialized medicine. I think that would, that would reduce anxiety more than anything the government can do right now. All right. Speaking of AI, I are sticking with AI. New York City just rolled out the nation's broadest generative AI, moratorium in schools, banning student-facing AI tools for a year for 600,000 kids from preschool through the eighth grade. High schoolers will get mandatory AI literacy classes with a limited number of classrooms

28:17participating in monitored AI pilot programs. Jess, this feels like a positive step forward for students. Or are we setting them up to be behind once they reach college and ultimately the workforce? I don't think so. Or I don't think we have the answer to that yet. I mean, part of this is a lot of classes that are specific to technology and AI. They just come later in life. And we've talked about the economic gap between who's actually on screens now and who isn't. And it's the wealthier kids or the kids with wealthier parents that are spending more time off screens than not. And this is so welcome as someone whose daughter is about to start in the public school system here in New York City in kindergarten. I'm thrilled to see this. And I think I told you this that at the when we went to the, you know, the meet and greet and talking to the principal, basically all of the questions from the parents were about screen time. And whether tablets could be withheld for

29:20as long as humanly possible, there will be also screen time caps. That was, you know, part of the meta settlement, which we didn't get to talk to because you were out last week. But, you know, I guess the least you could do. I thought it was interesting, though, that teachers are not going to be able to use AI to grade assignments, which I should have assumed was a big problem. But I think that is also a good thing. I think everybody should be having should be using their minds more in all of this. And, you know, I'm not surprised by how many of these tech titans like the Mark Zuckerbergs and Peter Teals of the world do this. But they all don't give their kids screenings. I mean, Peter Teal said when he had a three and a half and a five year old, they got an hour and a half a week. I mean, most people that could be a daily consumption or sometimes even morning or evening. Daily. Well, the amount of times that you just plunk a screen down saying, like, I just need half an hour to get this thing done, especially with work from home that's going on. It happens a

30:21lot. And Mark Zuckerberg basically described infinite scroll, like what he created and says, this is bad. It's like, well, why did you, why did you do this to all of us then? Yeah, I found again, going to kind of a larger issue. I'm, I'm Donnie here. Tell me how you feel about Gazan Israel. And I can tell you how you feel about mom Donnie. And I think it's too bad because there's how someone feels about geopolitical policy or their ideology. And like, when you're in the mayor of New York, you're effectively the president of a, you know, a middle power. Your views on policy do matter. But I think they matter less than your executive branch responsibilities. And that is, it's an operational position. And where I don't like this reductive thinking around, I'm going to evaluate mom Donnie's decisions to the lens of how I feel about his views on geopolitics. I think you get, if you're a critical thinker, you got to go issue by issue. And I think he, I think this is a great policy. Yeah.

31:23Banting students from AI facing tools with mandatory, well, at the same time, once they get to a certain age, having AI literacy mandates, that strikes me as a coherent age-graduated policy, not blanket technophobia, like see above the AI data center hysteria. And he deserves credit for it. He's actually, Jesus Christ, at least he's fucking doing something. Tell me what our AI policy is other than just no regulation. At least he's actually doing something. And I think about this, a lot of someone who, who studies and talks a lot about technology, this moment that really struck me and I was really impressed. My then 17 year old son said, I'm going to meet someone for coffee on Kensington High Street to know a place. And I said, no, just ask AI. And he said, I don't use AI for simple tasks. And I said, why is that? And he goes, well, I don't want to outsource my thinking and ability to do these sorts of things. And of course, being the support of father, I'd really bark at him. Don't be so fucking mature. But I thought, you know, he's so right. It's like

32:30your kids need to know how to do the laundry. They need to know how to, my dad made me iron a shirt when I was really, before I could even see over an ironing board. He said, you need to know how to start a lawnmower. You need to, I force my, I'm giving my 15 year old driver's lessons. I'm like, we're going to go to the gas station and I need you to get out and pump gas. Like you need to know how to do basic shit. So that's so you don't, I'm shocked how incompetent I am around in certain environments. I just don't know how to do shit. And I wish that I had been forced to do more actual stuff. And AI is that, I think it's a great idea to ban screens and AI and force kids to learn how to ride on their own and force kids to go through the hard work. And I think ultimately they end up with these skills to better leverage AI if they don't use it early. And so I think it's, I think this is a really thoughtful policy. I think Mamdani deserves a lot of credit for actually doing something here. So this is again, the mayor is an operational job. He doesn't make laws. He

33:36can influence them, but he doesn't make them his job is to make sure the subways run on time. The trash gets picked up. I mean, I'm in San Francisco right now. And everyone has been talking about you know, how much better San Francisco has had. I think it's still fucking post apocalyptic. I'm staying. I'm saying you said you're on market. I'm on mid market. I took a walk last night with my sister. We went to this great restaurant I hadn't been to in 25 or 30 years called cafes the walk there was nothing short of frightening. Not because I felt physically threatened, but hundreds of homeless people clearly with drug problems and veterans. And I'm like, Jesus Christ, it's just, and I mean, I'm getting off script here. If you talk to any civic official in mayor, they just say the homeless problem just calls on so many intractable issues. So I empathize with how difficult this problem is. But when I think about the wealth being created in San Francisco that has the second most billionaires in the United States behind New York,

34:37and I think about the tax revenue they should be collecting. And I think about the fact that I walk down the, you know, the primary avenue here at 8 p.m. and it feels like a post apocalyptic society. I mean, something is wrong. It is really wild. Anyways, let me circle back. I think mom Donnie deserves credit for doing something here and taking a stand around AI. And I do believe that forcing, did they make your kids? I remember I was so impressed. My oldest son, I've been reminiscing a lot about him. There's, I have this wonderful picture of him. He had homework when he was like seven. In his homework was he had to come home and use scissors to cut out shapes because they wanted kids to develop their fine motor skills. And I just thought, God, that's just so brilliant. He sat there at the table, you trying to use scissors to try and cut things out because they realized we have to teach kids very basics on their own. Anyways, good stuff. We've been making a lot of

35:38puppets. So we're big in the glue and the scissors phase. I just want to quickly say about San Francisco, though, because I do spend a lot of time with conservatives who are very critical of how these blue cities are run, even if Dan Lary, you know, has been heralded as making these big changes. People love them. But they call it suicidal empathy that liberals have that leads to these quality of life problems, not only for the people who are housed and live in these cities, but the homeless people themselves, right? Who in some cases get, you know, cordoned off areas where they can go and do drugs, right? Or, you know, you know, that there's a prostitution ring or there was a big case in Los Angeles where there were prostitutes across the street from like a pre-K. And people were just like, you can't, there is no amount of liberalism in me to make it okay for my children to be within earshot of street walking, essentially. I don't know what the right

36:42to prostitution. So I think that that is an interesting debate. And you see some folks like Matt Mayhan in San Jose who's caught homelessness by a third. And a lot of that had to do with involuntary action, where he said, you actually don't have a choice in this. Like we're taking you off the street. And there, I mean, the Times Square, what happened here two days ago, a 32-year-old woman on day one back from her maternity leave stabbed to death by a crazy woman who was known to the police. I look at something like that and your heart breaks, 32 life in front of her, a five-month-old daughter, but you wonder what kind of policies could be enacted or what policies might be on the books that people are not even carrying out that could avoid situations like this, where someone who is crazy enough to wield a knife and kill someone in Times Square might have been taken off the street. I think this is the soft issue and the vulnerability for Democrats. And that is

37:43100% crime and policing. Yeah. They have to move, in my opinion, to the center on cultural issues. That's around everything from homelessness to immigration to crime. And let me touch the third rail here, trans-issues. If we can't figure out a way to show that we know how to run a city, supposedly they spend $70,000, all the different non-profit spend $70,000 per homeless person here, and yet can't figure out a way to reduce the homeless problem. And I'm, I don't want to call myself a Republican, but I'm very sympathetic to the notion that if I live in San Francisco, I'm paying 14% incremental tax rate, fucking figure it out. Right. My kids should be able to walk around without saying, you know, some homeless person defecating on my corner. I would just be like, I realized the problem is complicated, but other cities have figured it out to pay much less in taxes. And, you know, under the notion somehow, like you said, this empathy that just results in a,

38:46an expensive but bad quality of life. And I also just want to highlight that there's no simple, I recognize there's no simple solution. But my attitude is, well, Houston figured it out. What? What? And so I bet I'm going to hear from a bunch of Houstonites saying the homeless problem is terrible here too, but I don't think it is. I don't have been to Houston in like 20 or 30 years. That's neither here nor there. Well, then maybe let's pick another city as a handful. New York. Yeah. Well, in a, yes, but I mean, going back to, I mean, I remember under Bloomberg, where there was a bed for every single homeless person in this city available. The issue was getting people to them. And we had, what goes to denying the rights, right? Right. And what equality means. And this was, we're so off topic though, the trans thing does link to the primary and Massachusetts, which we're supposed to talk about now. So that Markey and Seth Moulin. But you remember the Jordan Neely, Daniel Penny case from the subway here, where a crazed a guy who's on the top 50 list of

39:53the most dangerous homeless people in the city, you know, had been in and out of social services and completely tragic background like the whole nine yards, but Daniel Penny, who is a veteran was on the subway, saw how Jordan Neely was threatening all of these people and he ended up restraining him and and killed him in the end. And he was prosecuted. They were talking about prosecuting him, right? Well, they, yes, they were, but you have a responsibility of there is a dead person. You have to have a trial about it. And, and he was acquitted of these charges. And people understood what happened, but it was a real flashpoint and an encapsulation of this issue that we're talking about that in these deep blue cities, which I, you know, I love and I am so proud to be a New Yorker. It's such a distinctive part of who I am and my ethos and my values that you can't subjugate everybody else's rights for the rights of one person who clearly needs so much help. And that you are forcing people into a political, Sophie's choice that they don't

40:57want to make. Like you just said, you know, I'm not a Republican. Like, I don't want to be, I will never be a Republican, but I don't want to be a Republican. I want a high quality of life. And for a common sense, Democrats to be an office. And I think to the mom, Donnie doing things correctly, I think it is very important that at the same time that he's pushing forward, people see his very progressive policies about, you know, expanding pre K 3 K and 4 K and universal childcare and giving parents a night out with the desperately needed date. And a lot of people don't have the kind of money for a babysitter like that. He's also touting drops in crime and standing shoulder to shoulder with Jessica Tish, who has the full support of the police force here. So there is a way to do this and to not lose your values and your moral compass. And we really need to do it for the sake of these great cities, which are jewels, but also for our electoral prospects. We're all feeling it, getting pulled in a million directions. In a world full of

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45:15by running to the left. I have a lot to say on this, but I'll let you go first, just. No, you go. I'm an agist. I think it's insane that an 80-year-old would be the type of narcissist that decides he is going to have input into key decisions and represent Democrat of policies when, according to every actuarial table, there's a one in three chance. He's either disabled or dead before the end of his term. And we go through this constant bullshit and chaos again where he doesn't get to show up for votes. We don't know where he is. People start lying and we spend all this time wondering whether it's politically correct. Biology is not politically correct. Cognitive decline begins at 60. And in the military, it's CEOs, pilots, we decided a certain point. You should not be interested with this response. We age gate on the lower end. The 34-year-old AOC would do a better job in my opinion, running the country than an 80-year-old Trump right now, but we don't want to

46:19let a 34-year-old. My son is 15 and I think he can drive really well, but we've decided, no, he can't drive. And I get it. And people will point to individual instances of people who are great with essential pain or nail some mandala. Okay, fine, but there's way more evidence. It's also a more dignified exit for them. You're out. And part of cognitive decline is you don't know what you don't know. And that is you aren't self-aware about your own abilities as evidenced by you know, Senator Feinstein who decided that she should absolutely stay in the Senate. And I go back to the same thing. If all of a sudden all nations got together and in some sort of rare instance of bilateral cooperation said everyone over the age of 72 has to step down. Would the world be a better place if Putin, Netanyahu, Trump, what person over the age of 72 on the global political stage is just adding a lot of value right now.

47:21These individuals, we're not talking about an accountant. We're talking about someone who may not be as concerned about the deficit, may not be as concerned about climate change. Maybe has absolutely no ability to understand much less use technology. This is we are people are living way way beyond any initial our systems are set up for. And you know, Markey has now been back to well-funded younger candidates. And again, I don't think it brings up age, but this I think was more about ideology. But I think this is a really big issue. I think term limits are are we already accept age-based limits everywhere else judges, airline pilots, FBI agents, military offers, and we don't call that ages. We call it prudent risk management. And carving out an exception for the most consequential jobs in the world makes no fucking sense. The nature of cognitive decline is that these 80-year-olds themselves are the last people to

48:27recognize and see above our president as falling asleep in meanings. And hoping that they'll voluntarily decide to step aside, assume self-awareness that it self-erodes with age. And so I think this is a really big issue. And again, I was going back to the same thing. People call me an ageist. I had this debate with Bill Marron, his podcast, and like, biology's ageist. This has gotten really out of hand, your thoughts. I agree with all of that. And would just add to the mix that I think Seth Moulton was the problem more than anything about ideology. Yeah, because I think and Ryan Grimm, who was on the podcast the last day of Scott Free August, brought up a really smart point that if I on a press Lee, who is very progressive herself, total darling of the left and original squad member, Elizabeth Warren, accolade, all the things, if she had held her hand up

49:30and said, I want to run. That maybe Ed Markey actually would have retired instead of doing this. Or she would have actually won in a primary because people would have said, I can get vaguely the same policies, but in the body of, I don't know how old she is, but I think she's in early 40s now. Like an early 40s bold progressive woman. And Seth Moulton had not a great image to the public. You didn't even win his home territory in the North Shore. And I think part of that is just that a more centrist candidate in Massachusetts doesn't make a ton of sense for them. But I think that his kind of moving back and forth on hot button issues, like wanting to be tough on crime. And what we were just talking about with crime and policing and immigration. And then he was like a ball of shyce. Or the fact that he, which I think that he was right in saying that he thinks that trans women and women sports isn't fair. And he has daughters. And he talked about that. And then

50:33he got so much pushback that he had to waffle on that. And Markey stood up in the debate and said, yes, I think trans women should be in women sports. Now is he on the wrong side of an 80s 20 issue? Sure. But on in Massachusetts, I don't think it's that big of a deal for people. I mean trans issues are very low on the wrong of anything that anyone is voting upon. But it's certainly more in line ideologically with where people are. So I do think a different, frankly better progressive candidate might have made this different. And I think that should be involved in any analysis or autopsy of what happened in this primary. You know, it'll be interesting to see like if AOC does raise her hand and say, I want to run for Senate in in a couple of years and Schumer will be 76 then. I think if he just steps aside to avoid the messiness of that primary and primary. And I think there's a chance Markey would have. Senator Markey's narcissism is going to undermine the ability to pass the

51:34laws and create a government and policies that he claims to advocate for his ego and his narcissism of overridden his loyalty or fidelity to the principles he has spouses to. There's a one in three chance that in a Senate that will be very closely divided, he is not going to be able to show up for key votes at some point over the next six years. And to continue to put yourself in these positions of power, while not acknowledging the basics of biology is just pure unfiltered selfishness and narcissism. It didn't affect us. It was Biden. And by the way, it impacts as many Democrats as Republicans. We're actually older. Dems are older. Mitch McConnell is clearly a fucking vegetable. And I don't care how many CNN analysts who are about to become press secretary can come on. I feel stupid or with Abby Phillips and lie that oh, he's doing great. And yet he can't record a 10 second voicemail.

52:38I mean, Biden, what the fuck was Biden do? Anyway, as you can tell him a bit triggered by this, it is time for term limits and age limits. A democracy depends upon dynamism and turnover. It infects my industry and higher education. A third of the faculty and I work with one of the finest faculties in the world should be put on a fucking ice flow. And young, young academics can't go into other industries and students and these institutions, there are supposed to be centers of excellence lose all of this incredibly young capital because old people won't fucking go away. You can empathize with them because you lose the ability. No one believes they're going to die. It is it is instinctive to not believe you're going to die. Otherwise, you would freak out and not want to go outside. So you don't actually believe you think, oh, you're going to live forever. You can vote on a nuclear armchair. Oh, you'll be able to get down to DC for a mandatory vote. You'll be able to defy the odds because you're never going to you're never going to die. Now, I should sit

53:42around and faculty meetings and make big bold statements despite the fact no one's taking my class. And I haven't written relevant research since since the Carter administration because I have tenure. And you end up with, I mean, our elected populace, the average age is 62. The average age of a primary voter, which decides the elections now is 64. And what do you know? We have no thoughtful conversations around the deficit around climate change, but don't fuck with social security. Anyways, old people go away, leave the biggest infection that ails the world right now is a series of old men who won't leave. Thank you. I just want to say that I, Anna Presley, is actually 52 years old. And I thought that she was my age. She looks incredible. That's it. And I agree. All right. On that note, Jess, we'll leave it there. I will. I'll see you next week. Yeah.

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