The Fed Held Rates, But Will War With Iran Trigger a Recession?

The Fed held rates steady — again — and while that might not sound sexy, it triggered a deep dive into the uncomfortable parallels between today’s economy and some of history’s most turbulent wartime recessions. Chris and Saied unpack Powell’s post-FOMC “dot plot shuffle,” exposing how forward guidance has become a PR game instead of a reliable economic compass. Spoiler: if you think shelter inflation is cooling fast, you’re probably still using a 3G data plan.

➡️ From Operation Iraqi Freedom to drone-led wars of tomorrow, the guys explore how conflict has become a recession trap — and not the kind that you wan to get stuck in. With unemployment lagging recession signals and AI creeping into defense strategy, the conversation gets heavy, insightful, and just the right amount of unhinged. Plus, if the U.S. government needs a Microsoft BI subscription to speed up their shelter data, Chris offers to cover it himself. That’s service.

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🔗 Resources:

Fed Holds Rates Steady and Keeps Door Open to Cuts (Wall Street Journal)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank is beginning to see the price impacts of tariffs (CNBC via Instagram)

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