The First Bitcoin Hashrate Bear Market Ever [NEWS]

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📄 OVERVIEW

In this news episode of HashrateUp, Jesse breaks down what may be the first-ever Bitcoin hashrate bear market — and the structural force behind it: the AI pivot pulling power away from mining for good.

Starting with a Hashrate Index update at $31.25/PH/day, Jesse walks through the -10% difficulty drop (with a +5.83% adjustment incoming), the 4CP season, and Texas summer curtailment driving the volatility. But the bigger story is structural: public miners are no longer maximizing hashrate at all costs — they're deciding how much of their power should stay on Bitcoin versus shift to AI and HPC.

From there the episode opens into the policy and energy picture reshaping the industry: ERCOT's newly approved Batch Zero framework, 438 GW of data center interconnection requests (5x Texas's all-time peak demand), Microsoft's 2 GW West Texas AI campus, FERC ordering grid operators to fast-track large loads, and PJM's $23B warning as wholesale power costs jump 75% year over year. Plus Oman's mandatory national mining pool, Hive's $220M sovereign AI deal, and why Jesse thinks Luxor's forward hashrate market may be mispriced — a trade he's tempted to fade.

The throughline: hashrate may simply not come back this cycle. As more companies pivot to AI, the miners who survive will be the ones who already think like power developers — and that power-first playbook is becoming a real competitive edge.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS

0:00 – Intro & Hashrate Index update — $31.25/PH/day

1:17 – 4CP season, Texas curtailment & the -10% difficulty drop

2:27 – The AI pivot: every article is an AI story

3:33 – ERCOT Batch Zero & 438 GW of data center requests

7:10 – Microsoft's 2GW West Texas AI campus & FERC fast-tracking

9:27 – Oman launches a mandatory national mining pool

11:09 – Sponsor: Luxor & the forward hashrate market

14:49 – Bitcoin miners, AI re-pricing & the first hashrate bear market

18:08 – Data centers blocked & PJM's $23B power cost warning

20:17 – The power-first playbook as a miner's edge

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