The Growing Middle East Conflict Risks Drawing in the U.S.’s NATO Allies

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The conflict in the Middle East expands, and the US shoots down an Iranian missile fired at NATO member Turkey.

Plus, oil prices are up about 15% this week, but US drillers aren't rushing to pump more.

It's just too risky for them right now. Why would they bother to add a rig and change their plans when we don't know how long this crisis is going to go on for?

And why record numbers of workers are pulling money out of their retirement accounts for emergencies?

It's Wednesday, March 4th. I'm Alex Osolef for the Wall Street Journal.

This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

This morning, the US sank an Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean, killing at least 87 people.

Defense Secretary Pete Higgseth said it was the first time a US torpedo had sunk an enemy ship since World War II.

Washington is determined to destroy Tehran's navy and safeguard the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf.

In a news conference at the Pentagon, Higgseth provided a new timeline for the duration of the war.

Iran cannot outlast us. We're going to ensure through violence of action and our offensive capabilities and our defensive capabilities, as I said, that we set the tone and the tempo of this fight.

And that's why we don't talk about, you know, you can save four weeks, but it could be six, it could be eight, it could be three.

Ultimately, we set the pace in the tempo.

The conflict risks drawing in NATO allies.

Today, the US also shot down an Iranian missile headed to a Turkish military base that hosts American forces.

Iran had refrained from attacking Turkey until now.

And in recent days, the UK and France have said that they would send additional warships to the region after an Iranian drone targeted a British military base in Cyprus.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the Senate is voting today on a resolution over Trump's war powers.

The push to stop the military operation against Iran is expected to fail, as most Republicans back the President.

Senator Tim Cain, a Democrat from Virginia, who sponsored the resolution, spoke from the Senate floor ahead of the vote.

And so here we are, in a war that has cost American lives, that is leading to chaos throughout the region, that threatens to go bigger and bigger and bigger.

And I'm asking the Senate to do what the framers of the Constitution said we should do, debate and vote about matters of war.

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky defended the President's decision to strike Iran and said presidential power to use military force without congressional approval was, quote, well established.

But he warned in a floor speech that there are risks involved and that Trump needs to explain his strategy to the American public.

A vote on a similar measure in the House is expected tomorrow.

As we've been covering on the show this week, the conflict in the Middle East has thrown the global oil market for a loop.

Yesterday, the U.S. oil benchmark settled below $75 a barrel, a level not seen since last June.

And though global oil prices seem to have stabilized today, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that global oil could shoot to $100 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed for weeks.

But Benoit Moran, who covers the U.S. oil and gas industry, says American drillers aren't rushing to boost their production.

Benoit, why aren't American drillers jumping on this?

It's just too risky for them right now. Why would they bother to add a rig and change their plans when we don't know how long this crisis is going to go on for, right?

So it just makes no sense for them to revisit billions of dollars in spending that they've laid out for 20, 26 to investors just a couple of weeks ago for some of those companies.

They would be punished by investors if they made those changes based on just the last few days.

There are indications that the U.S. Navy might be providing protection to tankers and President Trump has said that the U.S. might be providing insurance to companies as well.

So those companies are just waiting to see what happens.

What is the risk for them if they jump into increasing production too quickly?

Let's take the example of what it takes to add a new rig.

That could take you maybe six weeks to contract for a new rig and between the moment you do that and the moment that the rig is drilling for new wells, prices could have changed.

You could be deciding to do that at $80 barrel oil and then prices could drop down to 62 weeks later and then you're stuck with this rig that you've contracted for.

What analysts and CEOs are saying is that if prices reach something like between $75 and $95 a barrel, then you could see some changes.

But you would need to do those prices for probably several months.

Oil prices have been on a roller coaster over the past few years because of things like COVID and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Has that given these oil companies a playbook for how to handle these kinds of situations?

Their strategy is just to state a course.

There's only so much that they can control and they've done a really good job at cleaning up house right in the past few years.

They used to spend a lot of money. They lost billions of dollars outspending themselves and companies have since embraced something that everyone calls capital discipline, which is that it's all about returning cash to shareholders.

It's all about dividends by backs.

If anything, the volatility price is spiking.

That's great for them to return even more cash to investors and then also luck in prices for future output.

What is the impact that this has on American consumers? Are we just stuck paying more at the pump?

Oil is a global market. What happens to them in the Middle East? Is it going to have ramifications for you guys consumers at the pump?

That being said, rising old production and the steady-ness that defines the U.S. oil and gas industry now is providing sort of a buffer between consumers and price spikes.

Because if it weren't for the industry's ability to keep producing through high and low prices, you could see even higher gasoline prices.

That was WSJ reporter Benoit Morin. Thanks Benoit.

Thanks for having me.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, several thousand ships are stuck in and around the Persian Gulf.

That's trapping about a fifth of the oil and liquefied natural gas, the world consumes each day.

And it's affecting the industry in the entire region. Storage tanks are filling up with oil that can't get shipped out,

which means producers have to cut their output.

Coming up, the latest on oil prices and stock market moves.

Plus, what's the corporate jargon that WSJ readers hate the most? We'll circle back and unpack that after the break.

Support for this podcast comes from Washington Wise, an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

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Oil prices have stabilized with Brent crude, the global benchmark unchanged today at around $81 a barrel.

All three indexes gained today with the NASDAQ leading and closing up 1.3%.

Plus, the conflict in the Middle East has sparked inflation worries driving up U.S. borrowing costs.

Treasury yields have been falling for several weeks, but gains over the past few days have pushed the yield on the 10-year treasury note as high as 4.1%.

Disappointing many businesses and consumers who were hoping for lower borrowing costs.

More Americans are digging into their retirement savings because of financial emergencies.

Vanguard says that last year, a record 6% of workers in 401k plans pulled out money via a hardship withdrawal.

That's up from 4.8% in 2024.

People take out money in hardship withdrawals for different reasons.

In 2025, the top ones were to avoid foreclosure and eviction and to pay medical expenses.

The median amount taken out was $1900. Vanguard's analysis is just another data point showing a diversion economy.

Most people are doing well and saving more for retirement, but some are going through financial stress.

And for them, retirement accounts are an increasingly important source of emergency funds, even if taking out the money comes with penalties.

And finally, do you find corporate speak to be sometimes needlessly vague?

The business world today has a tendency to rely on buzzwords.

But to people who hear them and to a lot of Wall Street Journal readers, it seems that Lingo can be unclear, or cringe-worthy, or downright silly.

Bill Power, who edits the journal's style book, told us about the jargon that Wall Street Journal readers love to hate.

What we did was we asked readers what corporate jargon do you hate the most.

So some of the ones are circle back, reach out.

One reader said it sounds like you're making a physical effort to grab somebody.

You know, why can't you just say contact?

Leverage, move the needle, hit the ground running, growth mindset, take a 10,000 foot view, juices and worth of squeeze.

I'll give you a couple more, negative growth, put a pin in that, socialize, deep dive, decisioning, change agent, bandwidth.

People don't like utilized. Why don't you just say use? Why do you use a fancy word or phrase or overuse it when a direct word works just as well?

Bill says that there are different reasons people fall back on jargon.

Some of these phrases were kind of fun the first time they were used, but the fact that they're used over and over, they sort of become a crutch for people.

There's a long tradition of using jargon or cliches either to sound smart or it won't be quite as mean about it is that it just phrases people here out there.

And they just can't help it. It just comes into their head and they spit it out.

And that's what's news for this Wednesday afternoon.

Today's show is produced by PRBNMA with supervising producer Tali Arbel.

I'm Alex Osele for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

This episode is sponsored by Morgan Stanley's Thoughts on the Market.

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