The IRAN WAR ESCALATION /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jim Jatras

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As we continue rolling through now, day 10 of the war between the United States and Iran,

the situation continues to worsen. And if anything, it is escalating.

There is no evidence that anybody is on either side, on any of these sides.

U.S. Israel or Iran is even thinking about backing down or surrendering to the other.

As a matter of fact, what we see is more evidence of escalation.

And we're going to try to isolate and understand what's going on and try to interpret some of the statements that are being made by the various parties.

We have some from all of them today.

And to try and interpret some of those we have back with this again today.

Jim Jatras, former U.S. diplomat, GOP Senate Foreign Policy Advisor.

And just really well connected guy from the region.

So I'm really glad to have you on today, Jim.

Daniel, great to be here with you as always.

Well, listen, let's just jump right into it.

Because we literally have sound from all the different parties here to try to see where in the world this is going to go.

Just as a real brief upset or update to anybody who may have missed it or so is just tuning in.

There was a lot of escalation over the weekend.

Some just apocalyptic images coming out of Tehran.

We hit a lot of oil infrastructure.

The Israelis hit oil depots.

De-salonization plant was hit.

Iran then responded in kind.

It hit some oil infrastructure and energy infrastructure in Israel.

Also in Bahrain, there's some reports out.

I'm not sure about any of the other countries over the weekend anyway.

There have been some in the past.

But this continues to be something that just expands and it doesn't go down.

And the amount of fire that the United States and Israel had brought on on to do.

Iran has just been really amazing.

At least in terms of the video provided.

But I wonder if you can kind of tell us your estimation of the impact and the actual consequence of all of the fire that's been brought to this country that's four times bigger than Iraq.

Well, you know, just one big picture observation.

I mean, we've got all sorts of conflicting claims about what's really happening here.

You know, we get the administration's line that.

You know, this is going swimmingly.

It's all going according to plan.

The Iranians are really taking it in the neck and so forth.

I do have to note that almost all the people who are saying that sort of thing.

Are the ones who've been telling us for four years that the Ukrainians were winning the war in Ukraine.

And the people who were questioning that.

And saying, oh, no, actually, I think it's the Ukrainians are getting the worst of this.

Are the ones who are saying, hey, maybe this campaign against Iran is not going so well anyway.

So I'm a little inclined to believe those who are skeptical about the administration's claims and the claims of their pet media.

Then those who are just sort of crowing about this great big success and how, you know, we're almost getting the end of the war.

Okay.

Yeah, but back to your question, you know, people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

I mean, you think if you're going to run a campaign like this, you would not be hitting fuels of facilities.

You would not be hitting desalination plants because our so called allies really are satellites in the region are far more dependent upon those things that even the.

The Iranians are obviously, you know, if the Iranians retaliate by hitting the gas and petroleum sector in the Gulf state Saudi Arabia places like that.

But even more so desalination where Iran is only what 2% reliant on desalination for fresh water.

I think Kuwait is 100% the Gulf states in Israel are much, much higher percentage of that.

You think you'd go out of your way, not to target facilities that you know you're more vulnerable on than they are.

Now, and I just don't understand that I mean not even the whole, you know, duplicitous glass house issue just practicality.

Why would you want to accelerate into categories that are going to cause harm to you.

And unless somehow you believe will Iran just have the ability to strike back with no one should think that because so far the only thing that we have seen is a reduction in the volume of fire coming out of Iran.

There has been no diminution in the effectiveness of the strikes and what they're hitting they're targeting they're getting through the air defense systems and we're talking both drones and missiles, not just some of the hypersonics, but.

Some of all the classes are getting through which it should be alarming that any of the drones are getting through but they are so the question I got for you is though let's look at the Iranians side of this first.

The impression that's given in the mainstream media by showing all of these images and some of the which we show on here is that Iran is really taking a beating and all these things but put it in perspective because for example Tehran by itself is a city of I think eight million people so it's quite large just in that one city.

But there are cities all over the country and they have disaggregated their command structure so they don't have like one headquarters and if you knock that out you're going to get the military out of the way they have sent it out and they have 31 different military districts with military headquarters and their own capabilities within each one of them so you would have to take out all 31 to get the country of Iran off the board.

How far do you think we are in the process of demilitarizing Iran?

Well for the reason to describe I don't know that we actually have the capability of destroying you know what people have referred to this so called a mosaic defense where they basically have decentralized their military structure and also the political structure is redundant so anything we knock out certainly in terms of personnel they can replace those people like they just replace the new Ayatollah the old Ayatollah with the son of the of the old Ayatollah.

I think the only thing that would make sense in that regard is if we actually can target their launchers and of course they may have all the missiles in the world stored away but if they only have a finite number of launchers and we can destroy those maybe theoretically we could get the upper hand I don't know if that's feasible or not I mean you're you're more the military expert that I am in terms of where those launchers are and how well hidden they are whether they're in hardened sites and so forth and mountain areas is that a feasible plan.

If you knock those out I suppose you could come up the argument then all the rest of that stuff becomes irrelevant to then defending Iran against whatever however long we want to carry on this campaign you know do it in our leisure I suppose over a period of months I mean that you know puts aside all the other questions like how many interceptors do we have left for own defense and so forth but if we knock out their offensive capability with their missiles.

Yeah I don't know you know drones are in principle easier to shoot out than then some of these missiles are but again we don't seem to as you point out we're not doing a very good job with that either are we.

And you know in a point on that to your point to your question there is there are there are many hardened sites literally scattered throughout the country apparently dozens of them many of them have they have launchers but they can come out they can fire they can go back in we've gotten some but not another nowhere close to all of them.

But then there are others which Gary shows periodically where they have new silos they can't be detected anywhere we don't even know how many of those there are and there's no way to take them out because once they fire it looks like it's just out in the middle of open desert and but by the time the smoke clears in the dust is gone you can't find where it was so you're not going to be able to take those out the drones don't need launchers they just need exactly you just got to be able to send them out and we seen how that works in the rush of Ukraine war you can't stop that.

So in terms of the the firepower that can come out of Iran it can literally go on nearly indefinitely you're certainly for an extended period of time so I don't think that that's going to happen anytime soon that we're going to knock all those out so then that gets us into what then is the attainable objective and so here we have back into your bailiwick here we have the secretary of state our alleged chief diplomat talking about what is the clear objectives of the United States.

The goals of this mission are clear and it's important to continue to remind the American people of why it is that the greatest military in history the world is engaged in this operation it is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles both by destroying their missiles and their launchers destroy the factories that make these missiles and destroy their navy.

Okay the navy you can get you can't hide the navy it's got to be on top of the water other than a handful of submarines but you can't you can't get at the stuff it's underground all the majority of the manufacturing capability for these missiles is all underground that's well known so for him to set this is what I want to ask you again it seems to me that no matter how much the superiority we have in firepower over Iran and it is is substantial that's no joke it is no question.

A question way more powerful from the United States and Israel against Iran by itself but you have said it's an objective to destroy all of their bomb making capacity and the manufacturing capacity which is underground how are you going to do that.

Well I wait a minute did secretary Rubio not get the memo from President Trump that I thought we're demanding unconditional surrender now we're not just trying to destroy their missile came up there they have to surrender they have we have to pick their next leader.

So that certainly goes well beyond destroying their missile capability maybe that's the interim step to unconditional surrender and we get to pick you know Shah Jr or whoever else is going to be the next leader every wrong so I don't I don't know that there's you know these guys are not singing from the same sheet of music it seems to me.

As you point out with regard to the launchers we can't really take those out with regard to the Navy by the way I mean yeah if we're talking about major surface combatants yeah we can destroy those but as I understand it too the real backbone of the Iranian Navy especially in the Persian Gulf and keeping the straight of hormones close is that they have hundreds of not thousands of these small speed boats that would be up just a hell of a thing to try to track all of those down and destroy them.

Because you know we can we can take out fishing boats in the Caribbean or something like that but to get all of those speed boats in the in the Persian Gulf that can interdict shipping in the Gulf again I don't think that's going to be feasible for for us to do or it's going to take a very very long time because I assume they can presumably be building more of those things too those are not major sure surf ships that take you know months or years to build.

Yeah not only that some of those can but they do have some ability to have some overhead cover to be hidden you can't put them in a tunnel per se but some of the caves or whatever they can be hidden away and as you say those things that they have some capacity to rebuild those over top if they have the opportunity of course that's the whole issue there.

I want to move on next to something that Lindsey Graham said here because this is part of the narrative if there's if there's the physical war that's going on there's also at least a couple of different information wars that are going on there's on one level where people of all sides are trying to put out public messages for people of the world to get it says you know they want to get popular support on their side and there's also the domestic angle so I would say a majority of the stuff that the US puts out from doing from Rubio the president himself.

And others is for the domestic audience in the United States especially those that are upset because Trump ran on no stupid wars no regime change wars no wars of choice and yet here he is violating all of those and then of course he also said the gas prices are going down the process of everything is going down but now that we see the process of oil predictably going way up who knows how far that's going to go.

It's been wildly gyrating even as of today it's been as low as 93 as seen and as high as 116 just in the day so that's that's a really volatile situation right now but the gas prices at home gasoline prices are going up so to try and quill some of that president Trump has sent out some of his best people like Lindsey Graham to try and explain to him how really Trump is a hero.

Donald J. Trump saved the world from real chaos. Woodcoff the negotiator was told by the Iranians openly that they have stockpiled enough 60% enriched uranium 4 and 460 kilograms to make 11 bombs.

Thank God Trump did this can you imagine a year from now what would it cost America if Iran had 11 nuclear bombs to threaten us they would hold us hostage will be held hostage in perpetuity.

Yeah let's let's take a look at those that it's just it's hard not to laugh when I hear him with such vigor saying that the little tiny Iran who had been in a box the almost all 47 of the years was was a threat to us and then he discovered that they had 400 grams of reprocess material at 60% when we had Ted Postal on our show explain to the public audience in July of last year.

Exactly that situation to process that many bombs and on his own analysis Ted Postal came up and said that would be enough for 10 or 11 nuclear bombs so not not surprised there but Lindsey Graham's acting like it's a shock revelation that they were because they had the capacity that they were going to build them first of all is that a fair estimate.

Well first off I'm glad you did the siren thing and secondly whatever I hear Senator Linda Graham come on I'm reminded what somebody once said about Lily and Helman every lie every word he says is a lie including and and the I mean you can't believe anything this guy says although I suppose on the the broken clock principle I you know and maybe it's a little bass act words but you know he basically I could see where we're rather than.

Preempting Iran's ability to make a nuclear bomb I could see where this campaign is going to precipitate it let's suppose suppose for the sake of argument that the senator is right for a change and they do have enough stored material to make one or more nuclear bombs but did not have any intention of doing so because they've had that material around for a while and not done so.

If I were them I'd be working pretty damn hard right now to be putting that material together and coming up with the bomb I mean it wouldn't be all the surprise if you know a week or a month from now if he's right that they have that much material on hand the Iranians say all right we do that we now do have nuclear weapons and you better knock it off and back off where else bad things are going to happen because they know by the way that are also facing the possibility that if this gets really bad for the Israelis and for this American campaign that the Israelis maybe even the United States

the Israelis certainly would contemplate using nuclear weapons if I were the Iranians I'd want to have that deterrent on hand and have it quick and so I would say that to the extent there's any logic to what the senator said it goes the points in the other direction that it really we have now created the incentive for the Iranians if they didn't have one before to move forward that program and by the way as we know from the news today about the new Ayatollah it was his dad that we should have thought was saying no nuclear weapons.

But at least according to reports taken from what they're worth that this new Ayatollah dissented from that point of view back on when it was issued and they're very well changed that based on the new circumstances.

By the way just as a as a detail point according to Persian media he's not actually an Ayatollah apparently you need some religious kind of a other capability she doesn't have but he is the supreme leader as the Ayatollah before him was.

It doesn't make any difference it's a nuance he still has the full power of the supreme leader that the the previous his dad had so yeah I've heard that as well that he may he may reverse that and there's every reason to think it is we we had investor chess Freeman on the show former ambassador to Saudi Arabia a few days ago and he he said I think that is exactly what they're going to do we'll see if that turns out to be true because then that would just be a catastrophic real self real self of league prophecy.

If or time has nuclear on nuclear nuclear and we then help produce a nuclear run through our own actions.

I that's that's the biggest fear that I've had for a long time let's look at the other thing that he said there though how would you respond as an American to this claim that Donald Trump saved the world what he's done now has saved the world how do you respond to that well right now looks like we're getting saved so much look again back to what the senator said.

That that where he saved the world from Iran possibly having a nuclear weapon which they might might well now get instead of before when they weren't planning on doing it we survived nuclear weapons in the hands of Stalin we survive nuclear weapons in the hands of Mao the very very fact that a government that we don't quickly like has nuclear weapons isn't something that necessitates going to war with them and in fact you know look what happened with North Korea they got nuclear.

Weapons and we suddenly lost interest in North Korea because we realized that's the very dangerous thing to fool around with so look what happened with Indian Pakistan got nuclear weapons you know they've had three wars before that they've had some skirmishes and something like a like a like a short war not too long ago but nothing like what they had in the past and you can make an argument that position nuclear weapons by Iran.

Since the Israelis already have them could be a stabilizing force in the Middle East so this apocalyptic notion that somehow.

Oh he stopped Iran from getting a nuclear weapon think God he did we could all be dead it's just the most absurd thing possible but if it turns out that we've encouraged they raise again nuclear weapon yeah we maybe made you know I'm not like I said maybe a little bit of a heretic on this when it comes to nuclear non proliferation i'm not sure it's necessarily the worst thing in the world.

They got one given the way we've been behaving here and the Israelis feel empowered to act as reckless as they want knowing that they have a nuclear arsenal.

Yeah there's there's no question about that that is that is that message and and lesson is not lost on a lot of regimes around the world.

No don't want to fall in that we'll see how that plays out over time as well well let's let's take a look at how that's playing out right now because with all of these threats and with all of this.

Application now of profound amounts of combat power from the United States and Israel one might think if you're an American listen to the mainstream media that they're probably just on the verge of either collapse or they're going to give up at any point and certainly we have.

Apparently ask them to have another negotiation and their cheap diplomat for minister of us a rock she was on American television this past weekend and was asking exactly that question is there any chance you would have a ceasefire now.

Last time they attacked us they made aggression against us they killed our people they destroyed our places and then asked for a ceasefire and we accepted out of good faith because we were only exercising the you know the act of self defense and when the aggression was stopped we stopped to but you know it didn't brought it didn't bring about peace.

And now this yet they again started to attack us and again they have you know they are killing our people they are killing you know a girl the students you know they are attacking hospitals you know fresh water.

Disalignations you know refineries you know every word people have been killed places have been destroyed and now they want to ask for a ceasefire again.

Well this doesn't work like this so that's that sounds been so far but I wonder if you could just talk to us about the pros and cons from the position of the Iranian side to have a ceasefire as opposed to not because there's the there's a line of thinking it says well it would be in their favor to have a ceasefire so they can stop all these bombs falling on them and certainly there's something to that but what is the cons of that what is the the downside to run to actually having a ceasefire.

You and I and other skeptics of the administration's line are correct it looks like we've got the Iranians right where they want us.

That we've managed to get our memory gland caught in a ringer here and we don't have a way to disengage and maybe Mr Trump at some point will wanted to clear victory and walk away which in effect would be just a ceasefire in words basically say okay fine just like we did after the June bombing the 12 day war okay we took care of the problem of course nobody believes that and we knew it was going to come back and have another war.

If the Iranians would be willing to let us walk away and effect accept a ceasefire that's all would be I mean in a way this is very parallel to will be see over and over again in Ukraine we keep wanting to say ceasefire ceasefire ceasefire the Russia say why do we want a ceasefire just so you can reload and come back at it again after you rebuilt your army that in effect is what the Iranians would be doing if they allowed Trump to pretend to have won walk away have a ceasefire for while which means we'll simply build up our stocks again repair some of the damage

and the Iranians will know will come back and hit him again in the future because after all we haven't got revision regime change right we haven't got unconditional surrender so if I were in their shoes I would be saying look these guys have now managed to stick themselves to the tar baby after years and years of threats and pressures and sanctions and all sorts of acts of violence assassinations and so forth we finally got them stuck where they can't get out unless we let them go and if I were in their shoes I'd be saying hey if you're ready ready to walk away if you want a ceasefire

good for you but we're not ready yet we're going to keep pounding away we're keep pounding away against the Israelis we'll keep pounding away against the Gulf States we'll pound away against all your bases all your assets in the region till you call it quits for good and walk away from the region that's what I would be doing in their shoes as you point out there's a cost to that that means they're going to keep dying they're going to keep getting hit and that's that's but but in a way I could see that would be a short term cost that's worth paying if it means from their their point of view

of ending what has been a perpetual American threat against their country and I would take a step further than that if I were in the Russians in the Chinese shoes I would be thinking exactly the same thing that this is a chance to really punch a hole in the global posture of the American Empire in a way that they really haven't had an opportunity to do in the past that's the way I would be thinking I'm not sure they're thinking that way but that's what I would be thinking it appears that they are thinking that way because

here I have this interview on CNN just about an hour ago with the see I think his name was Kamal Karazai the senior advisor to the senior the new supreme leader in Iran who was asked the question about how long can this go and what is your plan so here's what he said so your side is ready for a long war if the United States and Israel choose that do you consider this an existential threat to the Islamic Republic

it is an existential threat to the Islamic Republic and therefore we have to say with full mind as we are doing now is your side seeking or will you seek a ceasefire with the United States at this point in time and with Israel

I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore because Donald Trump had been deceiving others and not keeping it his promises and we experienced it in two times of negotiations that while we were engaged in negotiation the structure

how does all of this end then if you say right now there's no room for negotiation president Trump says he wants complete surrender what does that lead to

there in the room unless the economic pressure would be built up to the extent that other countries would intervene to guarantee this

determination of aggression of Americans and Israelis against Iran

so that is almost literally what you suggested what you said you would do if you were in that situation and that's what the senior advisor to the new supreme leader said that that's what they're going to do but what do you make of his comment right there there's no room for diplomacy right now it's just not so the only thing left right now is the military

I think that's right and even at the end when he says other countries being the guarantors I assume he's just talking about the Russians and the Chinese

but I don't even know what that would look like I mean even if you had some kind of new international convention that the Russians the Chinese the Americans and everybody else was a party too

the guaranteed Iran security and and that lifted all sanctions and so on and so forth how could even that be trusted

how in words what would those guarantees look like other than maybe a defense pact between Iran and and Russia and China you know similar to kind of like an eastern NATO or something like that I mean that they would be willing to go to war on behalf of Iran and I'm not sure they're willing to do that so I'm not I don't even know what that end game diplomacy looks like from his point of view you know I this is why I hate to say Daniel this is where I don't really see it away out this thing could go on for some time

and even if it's clear that the campaign against Iran has turned into a fiasco disaster I don't know how it ends unless they do pull a nuclear rabbit out of their hat

and then tell everybody to back off and they really mean it and that deters the Israelis from using their nuclear weapons because

you know I think you know I don't everybody says the Israelis have what 200 400 nuclear weapons I don't not sure how accurate that is

I don't know what their delivery capability is I don't know to what extent Iran might be capable

of taking of surviving a nuclear strike but Israel is not capable of surviving a nuclear strike if

they want to play that game and Iranians actually do produce a weapon yeah that's that's a very

sobering and dangerous possibility here you've mentioned a couple of times the Chinese and Russians

just before we got on the air here I got some notification from a source I have that

is claiming that the Russians are indeed actually both the Russians and the Chinese according to

this report are both helping with targeting information for the Iranian side against US and

and Israelis targets in the region what do you make of that report I would be shocked if they

were not doing that I mean why wouldn't they be doing I mean that's the one of the most effective

things they can do that doesn't evolve directly inserting military forces into the conflict which

obviously they'd be very very hesitant to do and of course we've got people in in Washington

already going crazy this oh look what the Russians are doing they're helping to kill Americans here

duh I mean we've been helping to kill Russians for the last four years in Ukraine with targeting

information intel that we're giving to Kiev and you know if you remember a few years ago there

was a phony story planted about that the Russians were helping the Taliban target Americans and

paying a bounty remember paying a bounty yeah yeah remember that and of course that turned out to be

phony but Americans just just went crazy oh how can they do such a dastardly thing look how the

evil and hostile they are it wasn't true of course now they are targeting Americans let's let's

not sugarcoded they are after years where we've been targeting their personnel that are being

murdered not only in in on the battlefield I mean I would say murdered you know it's a war being

killed in in Ukraine being murdered on the streets of Moscow you don't think American and British

intelligence are helping the Ukrainians to target people when they carry out these assassinations

inside Russia you know again you know I hate to say what goes around comes around people say oh

you're being you're you're justifying the killing of Americans no I'm not justifying it but

will you you it's certain yourself into a what effect is a war acts of war against other countries

don't be surprised and don't be outraged when they do the things anything back to you and if

anything they've been very very strained in doing that up to now I'm you know I would say the Russians

hearing out assassinations and you know Brussels or in London or in Washington or even for that matter

yeah for that you know that that's the whole other story why haven't they've been doing that

but now that there's a you know a kinetic conflict going on in the involves a lot of the same

players why would we be surprised yeah I think I think one of the reasons why we're surprised is

because we think that like when we were attacking all the the drug boats in the Caribbean sea

in the Pacific Ocean when we had all our issues in Venezuela there was no cause to us there was

no cash these we're killing people however many we want to whether it's Cubans Venezuelans or whoever

was in those boats that we shot and they were alleged to be drug boats there's no cost to us and

so we think that's the way it's supposed to be now that's why President Trump in my view says yeah

I'm going to choose the supreme leader I'm not going I don't like this guy and I have to be able

to call the shots because he did over here in Venezuela by allowing Dolce Rodriguez to be the new

ruler over there and I think that's he just like things yeah that's how it's supposed to be so he

is surprised and therefore the Russians can't do to us what we're doing to them in their mind and I

think that that's not a safe place to be no it's not and and I think it really shows

a kind of corruption of morality that has occurred at the highest level of our government

you know the whole great point Epstein claims yeah I mean look I mean you know I think was 2007

and four minister level off said that the American experience it behave he says the American

behavior is reminiscent of the experience of Bolshevism and Trotskyism he was basically

seeing the mentality of Western leaders is what we used to see from the communist back in the 1920s

when they explicitly said there's no such thing as objective morality there is only the class

conflict there's only class morality we by definition are moral because we're proletarian you are

by definition immoral because your bourgeois well that's the that's the mentality we tend to find

in Washington we are right because we always write by definition we are right because we say we're

right and anybody else is by definition wrong they have no legitimate interests except the ones

that we allow them to have and that really we're not within the high gear with the fall of the

Soviet Union and the Warsaw pack we say now we're the uniformer power that you know there's

Francis Fukuyama all the path of history has to be toward you know liberal democracy blah blah

and we're going to be the enforcer for it and there's simply no interest any other power in the

world has except the ones we allow them to have and that's the mentality we have in Washington that's

where you have people like Senator Graham and other people just saying these things the only

virtue I would say with with with President Trump's administration at least they've taken the

mask off at least they don't even pretend anymore does that he has anything to do with rule of law

and all that kind of nonsense it's all just might power we can impose our will on you you shut up

well and in fact speaking of the the the morality of the issue here we do seem to have still some

masks that we want to put on I want to play this before you get this is a little out of the order

here if you can play the one here in a second it's from Trump that we have labeled Trump bombing

from President Trump was asked on Air Force One over the weekend about this report that we blew

168 some on Iranian children and teachers in a school and at first for the first number of days

because this happened on the in the first hours of the war we say well we're checking into we're

looking we're looking we're investigating we'll now then President Trump went a further and says no

we've looked into it now it turns out we know who did it and you'll never guess who it was

did the United States bomb a girls elementary school in southern Iran on the first day of the war

in 175 people based on what I've seen that was done by Iran

what's that true mr hexan it was Iran you do that we're certainly investigating but the only

the only side that targets civilians is Iran we think it was done we think it was done by Iran

very inaccurate as you know with their conditions they have no accuracy whatsoever was done by

so what do you make of that do you think it was done by Iran yeah my dad was a fighter pilot he used

to describe as a mouth on afterburner and brain flamed out I mean it's um yeah yeah I said

very happy I suppose it's conceivable that what we saw in Ukraine were you know

anti-aircraft or anti-missile missile goes up and then falls down some place you didn't want

to fall and that's what happened there I think that's highly unlikely um it would the Americans

well actually this is we know it's not only unlikely we've have a video evidence of the missile

that hit and it wasn't as great it was a tomahawk and do we and do we and do we as Americans and

and you you Daniel with all this experience with our military do you really think there are people

in our military establishment who would say yeah let's target that girl's school I mean I hope

it was mistake I can't I find it hard to believe as cynical as I am in many ways that there are

actually people in our establishment say well let's show those Iranians what for we're gonna kill

a whole bunch of little girls and that'll show them uh what do you think

Dan gotta bring yourself in Dan Danny

uh I sorry about that I certainly choose to believe no um but uh let me just show you on the

screen right here this is this is what's been released this is the picture this is the tomahawk

missile uh that that was shown that was plunging into it so it certainly appears that that's what

it was but I I rather think that it was uh I uh what's the word I'm looking for uh an

errant target or a mistaken targeting capability meaning whoever selected that target for that

building that hit a pinpoint target they chose the wrong target they they thought it was a

military base of some sort or military facility and instead it turned out to be a school

that's what I rather think but when when hegseth said that the only side that targets

children and stuff is the is the Iranian side I've never seen any evidence of Iran ever targeting

civilians maybe there has been something I haven't seen it but I sure have seen a lot

from the Israeli side especially during the the war in Gaza and the war in the West Bank uh I've

seen a lot of that there and and there's certainly been facilities more than just this one that has

been attacked civilian-wise inside of uh in fact they'll see whether it's the US or Israel who

can say but over the weekend there was a lot of civilian targets in the city of Tehran that were

attacked as well so uh that that just doesn't pass the uh not just the common sense says but it

doesn't it doesn't pass analysis even if they were utterly ruthless well I guess President

Trump was saying they're incompetent so he's even suggesting maybe that was mistake but even if

they were utterly ruthless and said you know what if we kill a bunch of our own little girls

that will have x benefit for us other than a passing propaganda benefit for them what does it

actually gain them I mean yeah if you wanted to say that the Iranians have ever done something

like this you know there's evidence that when the Bosnian Muslims back in the war back in the mid 90s

in Bosnia targeted some civilians in their areas there was a Iranian intelligence assistance

going to them maybe not on those particular instances but the Iranians were possibly involved

but there was a clear benefit there the Bosnian Muslims knew if they targeted some civilians

and blamed it on the Serbs they could get the Americans to come in and bomb on their behalf

which they did so there was a direct correlation between outrageous uh action and what benefit

you'd hope to derive from it there isn't in this case there'll be no benefit for the Iranians

here other than oh a new story look at the little girls aren't you sympathizing with us well nobody

has gonna come bomb on their behalf based on this girl school being hit so I think it's virtually

impossible that they did this deliberately is it conceivable they did it accidentally yeah but

as you say from the visual evidence it was us and the only question is do we do it deliberately or

not and I really agree with you I hope we did not do it deliberately yeah I can't imagine we did but

that's uh that just all this does whether it was intentional accidental miscalculation whatever

the net result is pretty clearly it is deepening the resolve of the Iranian people to stick with

their leaders and against what we want to do uh so it's not gonna it's not gonna achieve our objective

which is or helps to achieve our objective which is regime change and to get the people to turn

against their government etc now that this war of words and if if I've shown you the what's going

on in uh Iran and with some of the Americans uh there's also in Israel uh Benjamin Netanyahu

this this weekend also made some statements here he made two he made a couple but I'm gonna talk

about two of them in particular here one is that he's gonna talk to his people in Israel in the

second he's gonna talk to the people in Iran first of all he's talking to Netanyahu and if we

can see that uh from the the uh special advisor to this uh special leader uh to the senior leader uh

he says basically they're they're signed up for a long war sounds like Netanyahu is setting his

people up for the same citizens of Israel we are still in the midst of a difficult campaign

we will not cease fighting it the tyrants in Iran we will strike them mercilessly

operation lions roar will continue with uncompromising momentum together we will continue to

stand firm together we will roar like a lion and with God's help together we will ensure the

eternity of Israel now I think that his message to his people is is probably resonating pretty

strongly right now in that I think that they are willing even with a substantial amount of damage done

since uh especially Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from a lot of these missiles and from some hypha and some

other places uh I haven't seen any evidence of the uh wavering of Israeli support for the war effort

have you um well first of all I'm glad he came up for air we haven't seen him much lately we'll

see down in one of those spider holes that Saddam Hussein was in and finally made his reappearance look

I mean to put it crudely his mouth is writing checks that his butt can't cover I mean he can say

that all he wants is Israel in a position to really fight a long war that really you know

basically he's saying we're we the United States are going to fight a long war he's not in a

position to do that um and and I'm not sure we are in a position to do that too so I think this is

largely an exercise in bravado he's saying he's going he can do this but it really comes back

to what we're talking about at the beginning of the program do the Iranians retain an offensive

capability and from everything you and I see in the least the people who are skeptical of

how the illustrations uh you know rah rah rah triumphalism uh that appears to be the case

so he can say that how he can actually deliver along that I don't really know

they gotta bring yourself in Dan sorry about that messed up again uh we'll see if he uh if he makes

good on it uh or not we'll see how it plays the other message he gave which was a little bit more

interesting and I think a little less successful and he's talking to the Iranian people

to the Iranian people I say I have been speaking with you and for you for decades the moment of

truth is approaching for we do not seek to divide Iran we seek to liberate Iran to free it from the

yoke of tyranny and to live with it in peace but at the end of the day liberation from the yoke of

tyranny will depend on you the brave and long-suffering Iranian people I believe that if you stand up at

the moment of truth the day will not be far when Israel and Iran will return to being close friends

uh he wants to be besties that's so sweet he wants to be besties with those guys and look all I'm

doing is killing your leaders I've been assassinating your people for so many years um and now

then we're blowing up your infrastructure and killing all kinds of people and and we just want

to be friends why can't we just get along how do you how do you think that strikes people in

Iran what did I say earlier about every word being a lie including and and the I mean I think

that pretty well describes uh Mr Netanyahu as well yeah his his heart is just brimming over with

sympathy for the long-suffering Iranian people I mean look let's be fair there are a lot of people in

Iran who don't like the Islamic government they don't you know maybe they were supporters of the

Shah maybe they're secularists oddly enough most of these people live in the cities on you know

the same kind of the sort of liberal people you tend to find in cities around the world they're the

ones that are probably suffering most in this war as opposed to people out in the countryside

but tend to be more conservative and more religious and are probably more supportive of this current

government but there's no question what he's trying to do and this relates to what I said earlier

about American policy because America and Israel are joined at the hip and you can argue over them

you know or at least on a leash you can argue which who's on which end of the leash uh but

what we want in the Middle East in the broader Middle East is that every country in the region

has to be subordinated to the United States and Israel they have to be essentially puppet governments

that we can control and failing that if we can't install a new government to run those countries

on our behalf and Israel's behalf then we'll destroy them we'll reduce them the chaos like Libya

was reduced to chaos so I don't think anybody in Iran even if they don't particularly like the

current government and frankly you know as an American then as a Christian I can see a lot

about this government not to like but on the other hand hey there are lots of governments around the

world I don't really care for that isn't you go in there with fire and sword and destroy them

and try to either impose a proper regime on them or or just reduce them the chaos

there's no question that that's what our goal is and for uh Mr. Denyadud will pretend that

oh oh our heart bleeds for the poor long-suffering Iranian people is it just cynical

lies that I think nobody in Iran is going to believe whether they like this government or not

Well tell me how you can reconcile what Netanyahu said there or at these

things fit hand and glove together when another American voice here which is

very closely aligned with Israel General Jack Keen went on television this

weekend. Gary if you can play the one called Keen 2 this is what he said the

Israeli objectives in this war are. The second major thrust is is what the

Israelis are doing largely by themselves and that is to take down the

organizational infrastructure that sustains this regime and this is

absolutely the center of gravity now by that I mean the entire ability for

them to stay in power with IRGC and the 32 organizations they have that a

part of that throughout the country they as being systematically destroyed the

Basit militia the police infrastructure that so aggressively repressed the

people the government institutions the civilian government institutions that

sustain the regime. So I mean what he's talking there that's not about

liberating anyone and because it remember this is what he says

the Israeli thrust it's just systematically destroyed their their civilian

infrastructure all of their even their internal security that's going to the

police the busseesh and you know the anything else that keeps the regime alive

not to free anybody else so how do those things go together. Well first off I'm

skeptical the Israelis can do anything much by themselves I mean anything

the Israelis are doing I assume we're with them cheek by jowl it involved

whatever these efforts are yeah let's let's go back a few months or a couple

years when Mr. Pizestian was elected president he ran on a essentially a

moderate platform let's negotiate with the West let's come find a way to get

out from under the sanctions let's have a peace platform he was supported

largely by the business community again largely urban phenomenon liberal

people by and large that didn't play out very well and as we heard earlier from

one the other ran the officials they tried to negotiate with us and then we

tried to kill them I don't think anybody in Iran can have any belief that just

trying to dismantle or harm the organs of the government's authority are not

directed against Iran as a state not just against the current government

that what they want we want to do again is to reduce it either to a puppet

status or break the thing up and now that's one reason by the way where you're

talk about you know sending the courage in because you know we can mobilize

ethnic minorities like the Kurds these areas the Arabs the Bolutrius and so

forth to try to tear you Iran up in the way that Libya has been torn up but I

I don't know how well this is going to play even among people who are maybe

hostile or to or skeptical of the current government that you know how do we

you know first off I don't think it's likely to be successful I mean if the

Iranians have learned anything over the last few months is that the Israelis

with our help are going to be targeting officials like this and they have by

all reports built redundancy into the system that if A gets killed and B

takes his place and B gets killed C will take his place this is not just like

one man show you know I suppose back before you know we invaded Iraq if you

killed Saddam Hussein that might have a really big impact on the stability of

the Iraqi government at that time I don't think there's any

incomparable to that we kill the Ayatollah does it place fall apart no so I can

think we could kill any number of officials and they'll simply be replaced by

others who probably are just as competent as the people they replaced you know

it's interesting Gary if you can put that headline I just saw you put up their

second ago that's 68% of American Jews support the war that's interesting

because it's this gets to the the heart of what is it we're trying to get

accomplished here and what are the American people think about this because while

we have that when they're not seeing that that number actually that was the

first time that Gary just popped it up on the screen you say okay well that's

that's American Jewish support but when you take a look at the overall

American population I'll pop this one up there you see a majority of

Americans oppose military action when you roll down to the number here 56 to

44% margin a opponent said that they opposed the military action so only

44% of the general population are for it were 68% of the the American Jews

are so you see that this this is really not about American interest this is

about the interest of of another country here and I think we got to be honest

about that no matter what the administration is trying to sell that this

was an imminent threat to us that they were coming after us did Trump save the

world no this is not about American interest at all how do you see it I don't

know who was pointed this out and I haven't verified the stats but it's been

pointed out this is probably the first war in recent memory maybe the

first war ever that had minority public support from the get go I mean

usually when you go into wars like say Vietnam or even the Gulf War that or

you know the invasion of Iraq a majority of people supported it and only

what turn sour when things began to go wrong it looks like from the very

beginning Americans were not supportive of this war yeah there's looks like

the pretty solid majority of American Jews support it but they're not the ones

the count I mean it's not the you know just ordinary you know mom and Joe

Shmo Jew Jewish American or not Jewish American who supports this it's big

Jewish organizations and also you know Christian Zionists you know a lot of

evangelical Christians who believe this has apocalyptic significance for you

know for the Middle East as a whole you know building the third temple you

know Jesus coming back and all that other sort of thing so you do have segments

of a population that will support this no matter what but you're already

starting from a fairly small base and if this thing doesn't turn into a

success relatively soon that base is going to start to deteriorate although I

think there's probably a core let's say maybe 20% of the population that will

never jump shit either because they're with APAC and some of the big Jewish

organizations or that they're it's literally a religious agenda for them when

it comes to you know Israel and God's chosen people and I will bless those

of blessing and curse those the curse the et cetera et cetera that simply

cannot be dissuaded no matter what yeah and so then the question is where does

that leave us in so what we have seen here is that you have the Iranian people

and the Iranian leaders seem ironclad we are not surrendering we are not

going to give up we're going to continue on for a long time you have these

Israeli people that are locked in they are definitely on board they're not going

anywhere and you have the American leadership will as opposed to the American

people but right now they're pulling all the strings that are it seemed to be

saying yeah we're just going to continue ramping this stuff up here then you

have what's actually happening on the ground here so we're day 10 of this war

here we see that all process and I look just a second to go at the moment

it's been all over the map today but right now it's sitting at $95 a gallon which

is $4 up from where it was on Friday who knows where it's going to be at the

end of the week but the longer this goes the longer

oil infrastructures getting hit the longer the straighter hormones stay shut

off the longer this war goes the bigger impact it's going to have outside of

the region on the global economy where can this go

if all three sides right now are just firmly entrenched on continuing the war

well let's go with the short term and then the big picture the short term is

a lot of people are focused on the November elections we also

Trump coming up to go see Xi Xi Jinping in the end of this month so there's

some crunch times coming up and if we get down to the point where there's

only a small minority of the American public that supports this thing which

made probably the over 40 you know mega you know Trump and people will never

desert Trump no matter what happens we're we're looking at you know a

Democratic sweep in November and another impeachment depending on what

happens in the Senate even conceivably that he could be removed from

office but even then it may not be likely

but you know a lot of people are beginning to predict that Trump is not going to

finish out this term for one reason or another

the other big picture i would point to is this gets back to what the

Iranian agenda is what the Russians and Chinese think

i've always been of the opinion that at least for several years that

this country is likely to go through something like

with the Soviet Union experience in the 1990s that we are so tied to this global

empire that is just sucking the life out of the American nation and our

political system is so ossified that it cannot change

course that the only way for us to change course is to suffer some kind of a

disaster somewhere hopefully one that doesn't

involve getting a whole lot of Americans killed so i would say in one

sentence it's not only an existential war for the

Iranian nation it's also an existential war not for the

American nation but for the American empire and if this

campaign fails it turns into a real dent in the credibility

of our global empire that's going to have repercussions globally and at home

you know the price of gasoline and of all goods because of the price of

petroleum go way through the roof the supply chain start to collapse

all sorts of things could happen here tap

thing into what you talked about Daniel about the very deep divisions

between Americans and this kind of a pre-civil war

sense of things that many many Americans have this could have real

real blowback consequences for the internal stability of the United

States as well as for the global order that it is so

it's just hard to imagine obviously i agree with you

to consider that by embarking on this war of choice did 100% was not needed for

either our interest or security could end up being the instrument that's

lit a fuse it's going to undercut our own internal stability as a nation

and and it could all go back to these choices that were made here it's just

it's just it's hard to believe and it's also just

anguishing to realize that you have to believe it because it is entirely

possible but yeah yeah but i mean i had to say it

having it happen sooner with less American blood shed rather than later with

more American blood said maybe the better the better outcome for us

i just wish there was an option that didn't require anybody's blood shed

but i'm i'm just being honest i don't see it so i

choosing between those two i'm going with that one yeah because we can't change

course no veto like they say no matter who you vote for you get john

McCain there's simply no way we can vote our way out of this mess i mean

look i voted for i vote for well i voted for the peace president i

didn't get the peace president and of course if you

if you voted for Kamala Harris you wouldn't have gotten a peace president

either no no way you're going to get a peace president no way our

political class can change course we've got to hit the rocks somewhere

and before anything is going to change and maybe this is the

rock we hit and maybe you know let's hope we get out of it

with a minimum of blood and treasure that's been shed and we can

start to recover from the mess we found ourselves in but uh

that's a real role of the dice

well it is uh and and we're just going to have to end on the

on that optimistic hope that it's only a little rock

and not a big one that we strike but i i

agree it's hard to see i'm cautiously pessimistic

that's weird so but uh but i find it accurate

that's something i thought of before but but appreciate you coming on today and

and uh give this season shots uh we really appreciate it because it's

hey we are unintimidated and uncompromised to tell people the truth even if

it's something that nobody wants to hear but that everybody needs to know

when we really appreciate you coming on today

thank you and we thank you guys very much too

also there's uh if you want to keep up with Jim

jatras there you see on the screen our uh is the

address where he's on x there so you can keep up with him so

want to appreciate you and uh let people know to go see more of Jim

jatras uh that's it we have for you today folks but we got a really big

show a couple of shows tomorrow we got uh Dr. Robert

pay who's been all in the news you may have seen a lot of him uh

he has been very active in an understanding how some of these global

international fairs work uh he is going to be on tomorrow and long of course

with the ever popular Colonel Douglas McGregor

nobody ever wants to miss that show uh to include me and Gary we enjoy

doing these shows as much as anybody else enjoys watching them

two big powerhouse shows tomorrow don't miss them we'll see you then on the

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