The Iran war is affecting global food security

0:00What if we told you America's economy is strong enough that we can have nice things? I'm Catherine Edwards and I'm an economist. I'm Robin Rousey and I'm an editor. Every Tuesday on Optimist Economy we talk through economic policies that matter. Social security, the minimum wage, immigration, childcare. We look at the research and the data, not just politicized hot takes. You'll probably learn something. You'll probably laugh and you'll finally understand why we can have a better economy. Search for Optimist Economy wherever you isn't a podcast. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible, financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates, potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations. It's not just the supply lines for oil in

1:03crisis because of the war in the Middle East. Globally, it's sort of a slow moving food crisis in the making. Fertilizer shipping and production is also disrupted. I'm Carolyn Beeler. In India, the patent on the active ingredient in Wagovi and Ozembic expires today, doctors there are especially excited. That drug going off patent and becoming available to a huge population at a fraction of a cost is really big news. And housing prices are climbing ever upward. We look at why that is true in so many places. People are seeing this as a way of wealth accumulation. Housing has now become as an asset. It's not just a place to live. And will crash a glorious, no-roose party in Istanbul. That and much more is all ahead on the world. This is the world I'm Carolyn Beeler. Thank you for joining us today. We all know that the price of gasoline has gone through the roof. In response to U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran has effectively closed off the

2:05street of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through energy markets. Iran has maintained its blockade by mining the waters of the Persian Gulf and threatening to target any ships that pass through. Those ships are not only carrying oil, some carry fertilizer used by farms around the world. And that has implications for the global food system. David Ortega is a professor of food economics at Michigan State University. He told me today that one third of the world's traded fertilizer passes through that street. And one critical point here that is worth emphasizing is that it's not just fertilizer that's produced in the Gulf state, but also natural gas. Right. And that is because natural gas is a key input in making fertilizer. The famous Hayberbosh process that converts natural gas to ammonia to urea. And so we've seen a lot of the natural gas facilities hit. And we've seen a lot of it, you know, sort of not able to cross the street. And there are countries in the global south that depend on that natural gas to be able to

3:07make fertilizer within their borders. Right. So we have two problems at the same time. Fertilizer has already been made sitting on ships and not able to get to these dreaded promos. And also natural gas, many facilities have been struck that produce natural gas. And that is going to hurt future production of fertilizer. So how much is this already affecting fertilizer access, I guess, around the world? Well, I mean, we're seeing fertilizer prices jump, especially nitrogen fertilizer. And it's important to keep in mind that we are in the northern hemisphere. And in many parts of the world going into the spring planting season. And so if we're starting to see these fertilizer prices rise, there's going to be less fertilizer application, which can then lead to lower yields, which would mean that there would be less commodities and food available, you know, later in the year. And that would put upward pressure on prices, on food prices in particular. You said this is already sending prices

4:09going up. How much and how big of an impact might that have? I think it really depends on where you are. But we are seeing, you know, price impacts to Urea, to ammonia. And a lot of these get exported from the Gulf States to Asia, to Sub-Saharan Africa. And so, you know, prices are up. When we look at late last year, you know, more than 50% for Urea in particular. I'm wondering what this might lead to down the road in terms of food prices and even food production. Are there examples in history that give us some sort of sense of what might be to come? Well, so, you know, there's been multiple shocks, even very recent shocks. When we look at 2022, we had a righteous invasion of Ukraine. That was a different type of shock because it not only impacted energy prices, but it actually impacted the actual production of many of these agricultural commodities. A lot of the grain that's produced in that part of the world. But when we are looking at

5:10the current geopolitical shock, so it's impacting oil prices that leads to higher diesel prices. And it's important to keep in mind that food moves on diesel. It moves on energy, on oil. Globally, a lot of the food miles are transported via cargo vessels, but domestically here in the US and in other countries, a lot of that takes place in trucking. So, diesel prices, you know, have a pretty significant impact on the transportation of food. And then you have, you know, food is energy intensive to produce, even beyond the farm gate, a lot of the processing, even packaging can be impacted by rising oil prices. And so, you have, you know, hits to production, increases in price. And when we're talking about globally, it's sort of a slow-moving food crisis in the making. Slow-moving food crisis in the making, that sounds dire. I understand this is already causing fertilizer plants to shut down in India and parts of Southeast Asia, is that right? That's right. Yes, we've seen fertilizer plants shutting down in India and Bangladesh. And again,

6:10it's because of lack of access to that natural gas that comes out of the Persian Gulf in those states. And so, what kind of decisions are farmers facing now already, or will they likely face in the next few months as they plan to need to fertilize? What are their options? Yeah, I mean, some of their options, you know, it depends on where you are. You may be able to switch crops that, you know, that rely more heavily on nitrogen fertilizer. So, here in the US, you may be switching from corn, which is very nitrogen-dependent to crops like soybeans, but in many parts of the world, farmers don't have that luxury. And so, they may be making the decision to use less fertilizer because it's not available or because prices are prohibitive. And unfortunately, that's going to turn into potentially lower yields in a few months. There are negotiations to let some ships get through this all-important state of her moves. Are there any indications that this will get fertilizer moving again?

7:12I mean, it's really tough to say. The cost of insurance for a lot of these vessels is a major factor. There's a lot of risks involved. And, you know, I've seen, you know, the forecast is that the price of oil is going to remain elevated, you know, for the next few months, just given the amount of uncertainty with this current situation. And the uncertainty in and of itself can be inflationary. We're seeing sort of shipments that are being rerouted through the Cape of Good Hope. And so, the other waterways, but all of that leads to higher costs. And so, it's a pretty dire situation when it comes to what's happening with some of these key agricultural inputs that are needed for food production. Where is the concern highest for food access itself, either because prices are going up or because there's just less food? I mean, where should we be worried about this slow-moving food crisis, as you've said? Yes. So, I think when we're talking about food security, you know, we produce

8:18a lot of generally speaking a lot of food in the world. So, a lot of the food security issues are really because of access and affordability. So, trying to make sure that the food is where the people need it and at prices that they're able to afford. So, this is where, you know, the cost of transportation plays a big role. You know, that's not to minimize the impacts on food production. Those are very critical, especially for developing and emerging countries. But, you know, transportation costs are going to play a big factor because energy costs and, you know, fuel costs are particularly important and significant when it comes to issues of access. You've mentioned the choices that farmers are going to be facing here in the short term. I'm wondering if there's any longer-term choices or solutions to these problems of fertilizer access, high transportation costs, etc. I mean, so I think in the long run, you know, we have to think about how to make these supply chains much more resilient to these types of, you know, geopolitical

9:22shocks, you know, investments in agricultural research and development can help with, you know, improving productivity. But these are longer-term solutions. And when we're talking about the current situation, the critical issue here is what's happening to the price of oil and the supply of fertilizer and natural gas that goes into food production. David Ortega is a professor of food economics at Michigan State University. This week, we've been hearing stories about how people are coping with the housing affordability crisis with reporting from four different continents. Today, we are stepping back to ask why putting a roof over your head is so expensive right now in so many places. Penny Gerstein founded the Housing Research Collaborative at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. When we spoke, I asked her how she would describe this global problem. We're now seeing sort of an unprecedented number of people who aren't inadequately housed,

10:26who are paying far exceeding what they are capable of in terms of rent. So that's affecting other things that they need to live on like food and transportation and other things. So every housing market, you know, is different. But are there common reasons why lots of cities across the globe are having trouble bringing down the cost of housing? Well, I mean, I think the major thing is housing has now become seen as an asset. It's not just a place to live. And so people are seeing this as a way of wealth accumulation, saving for their retirement, being able to pass along to their children. So those who can get into the market are accumulating and those who can't are really falling behind. So you're in Vancouver, British Columbia, which has a reputation for expensive rents and housing costs. What is going on specifically there? We've had a sharp increase in our housing costs. And that's, you know,

11:28really affected the ability of people to buy into the market. But it's also really attracted global capital, who sees this as a really good place to park their money because it's growing. You know, they know that housing prices will increase. Now, just recently, we've had a downturn. So prices are falling. They're not falling that much, but they are falling. And that's, you know, because of some policies that the federal and provincial government have introduced. One, you know, very standard response to high housing cost is to build more housing stock. But you recently signed on to a letter to the government of British Columbia, urging leaders to think beyond that solution. Why is that? What we're saying is you need the right supply, which is the supply that actually is going to meet the needs of people living and working in communities. And that's not happening right now. And I alluded to that before. But it goes sort of further than that. I mean, in Canada, not so much in Europe, but definitely in North America

12:29and the US and Canada, there's real lack of tenure neutrality, which means that there's real inequities between homeowners and renters in terms of policies. So the policies really emphasize tax breaks and other things for homeowners. They don't get the same for renters. And so what you're doing is forcing people who may not, you know, who may not be able to have the assets to buy, but are trying to buy because they feel this is the only way that they can live what is, you know, considered a good life. Yeah. So I'm curious. Are you're a correspondent Orla Berry reported from Vienna recently that there it is quite common for people to be lifelong renters? Do you think that is a better system to house everybody who needs housing? Yes, it is. I mean, I think it's good as long as there is a really strong social safety net that will support people. So they don't have to worry in their retirement about being able to take care of themselves. So that's what I, you know,

13:36I see in European countries and I recognize that that's being weakened for various reasons again, but but that seems to have been since the Second World War that this has been a real emphasis on building that social safety net for people. And so they didn't feel a need to buy. Is there a city that is doing a good job at this at putting in solutions to bring down the cost of housing? One of the places that I look at is actually in Asia in both looking at sort of Hong Kong and Singapore. You know, ever since Singapore was formed as a city state, they had a housing and development ministry that was very, very strong because they recognized that you needed to treat housing as infrastructure. And that's exactly what they did in Singapore and also in Hong Kong. So right now, two-thirds of the housing in Hong Kong is in some way publicly owned. And in Singapore, that's even more. 80%. It's allowed for these places to be to really flourish.

14:43Housing is really fundamental to how people, you know, need to live their lives. If they had safe, secure, affordable housing, they'd be able to take risks in starting businesses and doing all of these other things that you need to have a strong economy. That's interesting. Thinking of it more as a public good and an infrastructure need like roads instead of a private asset. Yes. And when you think about it, I mean, because Hong Kong and Singapore were both known as sort of little capitalist engines, and, you know, here, that was what helped them grow was the, you know, government subsidies, subsidizing housing. Penny Gerstein is director and meritist of the Housing Research Collaborative at UBC in Vancouver. Check out our whole series on housing affordability. We have stories from Seoul, Vienna, Johannesburg, and Caracas at theworld.org.

15:46You're listening to the world. This is the world. I'm Carolyn Beeler. As France heads into the second round of municipal elections this Sunday, thousands of small rural towns are scrambling to solve a big problem. No one wants to run for office in villages like Via Serf. Long hours, low pay and a rise in belligerence toward public officials have made public service pretty hard to sell. Reporter Lisa Bryant paid the village a visit for a closer look at what is going on. Even before election results were announced, these self's next municipal council was at work. Local lawmakers lined up chairs at a community center for their first budget meeting and laid out cheese and red wine for after.

16:54In this village of old stone houses, about 100 kilometers south of Paris, there are no surprises. Like many small municipalities in France, only one slate of candidates with no party affiliation is running for office. The biggest change for Ville Serf's 700 residents, 69-year-old Mayor François Descent is stepping down after 14 years on the job. I think in villages where the teams have worked a lot in the field and brought a lot of projects and solutions, residents are confident in them and want them to continue. I could have run again, but for what purpose? Village mayors like Descent have plenty to do. Among other things, they oversee public work, synergy and environmental projects, manage schools, captains and garbage collection. On weekends, they're out attending sports

17:58and cultural events and talking to their constituency and not getting much time off. All that for very modest wages considered a stipend, not a salary, and violence against public officials is growing. Out of about 2,500 attacks registered in France in 2024, two-thirds targeted mayors. More than 2,000 French mayors have quit since the last municipal elections, others stayed on for lack of candidates. But there is some good news. Out of France's nearly 35,000 municipalities, only 68 have no mayors. That's down from more than 100, a few years ago. Bulsering those better numbers, political scientists, Nassien Foucault told French Radio, is that voters trust their local mayor, even as many distrust national politicians. At the same time, he says mayors face jobs that are increasingly demanding. Requiring skills,

19:01they don't necessarily have. Here in Viseff, Mayor Descent doesn't think there's a problem in finding candidates for mayor. He knows he'll have a replacement. His 48-year-old deputy, Melanina Mott, who he's been training for the job. Mayors don't have hours. I've worked a lot. Everybody in Vilserf has my mobile number, and everyone will have melodies. But nobody abuse that. I've never been beaten, except that you have a real need. Viseff residents like Emile Shossi, fetching her child from primary school, seem happy with the status quo. There's only one mayor who answers to the village's needs, and that's fine. She responds to what villagers want, security, good relations.

20:05Same reaction from electrician Antony Foucault, no. We don't have the choice of other candidates, but Melanina Mott is just fine for me. A former industrial engineer and mother of two, Le Mott will be earning a fraction of what she could earn in the private sector. From the start, I invested 100% in this municipal council, and through my professional experience, I had certain skills that were adaptable, working in teams, holding meetings, leading projects, resulting problems. My husband works so I can afford it, but it's not like I will be earning for my retirement. Some believe it's time for change. Eucré Boe spent nearly two decades as mayor of André-Z, a town of about 15,000 outside Paris. For a while, he juggled a private sector job

21:07and his civic duties, the work was 24-7. The role of a mayor is like heading a business. Whether the commune is small, medium, or large, mayors should have a salary, and I'm tired that in France, mayors are relied on as volunteers. We feel on the ground because we are very young. I'm proud to be able to have been pilots in these self-states sold out, mayors will see improvements at a time of fiscal belt tightening. Despite the challenges, he's proud of his accomplishments, restoring buildings and roads, putting in cleaner energy, preserving the local environment, and building the community center, and former industrial wasteland. It's very addictive being a mayor. It gives us a lot of pleasure. We don't just officiate weddings, we solve problems. I honestly think I did a good job in office. I did a good job, clearly.

22:10Now it's up to incoming mayor La Motte to take over. Lisa Bryant, VICEF, France. Lisa reported that story for DWs inside Europe. If you stood in Guanghuamun Square in Seoul today, you would be forgiven for not knowing anything is going on other than tomorrow night's concert by K-POP Megastars BTS. The city's skyscrapers are glowing with BTS advertisements as the city washes itself in purple, the official color of BTS fans. You can see band members peering down at you from the skyline from huge electronic billboards, but that is not all. Drones lit up the night sky this evening to write out three letters. You guessed it, BTS. This is Swim from the group's new album, Oury Wrong, released today.

23:11It is the first album they've put out in a long time after a hiatus, while the performers did their mandatory military service. That took four years. Fans were clearly waiting. The Swim video has already been viewed some 25 million times. J-cune is a South Korean cultural critic. He says BTS is South Korea and South Korea loves them. South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min Suk posted a video on X welcoming the group and the BTS army has fans are known. The open air show is free and 250,000 people are expected to show up. If you are not in Seoul, fear not, you can watch it live on Netflix tomorrow morning at 7 a.m. Eastern. Music for your weekend, no matter where you live. More stories are coming your way, you're with The World.

24:33This is The World, I'm Carolyn Beeler. Big news in India, the patent on semi-glutite expires there today. That is the active ingredient in the diabetes and weight loss drugs, osempic and wagovi. Much less expensive generic versions of those drugs are expected to flow into the market, which could be a game changer in a country with the third highest number of obese people in the world. I spoke earlier today to Dr. Rahul Bakshi, a physician who treats diabetes in Mumbai. That drug going off patent and becoming available to a huge population at a fraction of a cost is really big news. How often are you prescribing some aglutide medications now? Very regularly. As of today, I've been prescribing only osempic because that is the only one officially available. But when these generics are available in the market, I believe a new batch of patients, a new subset of patients, open up to be prescribed these drugs. In fact, I mentioned here last six to eight months when I feel a patient sitting in front of me

25:35needs a drug like semi-glutite. I offered osempic, but there's a cost barrier. They say, sir, we can't afford this drug with the present cost for long term. Those drugs in the past six months, I've been writing on the prescriptions that, okay, you come to me after 20th of March, and we'll have something more to offer to you so that data has come absolutely. Oh, really? And how frequently would you have patients say, oh, we can't afford this? Like, how much do you think sales are going to go up or use is going to go up after the medications go off patent? Yes, the cost is going down by say 62-70% of what they know it a brand is costing as in India as of now, which is already, say, around less than half of what it costs in the US. In India, it's already very cheap, even the original no-no-disc osempic. So now the cost going down even further below that by 50-60%. A lot of our patients will be able to afford this drug, and it's important because these are all long term therapies as we all know. These are not short term fixes for obesity. These are medications for diabetes. These are

26:37powerful metabolic drugs. So with that explanation, with correct lifestyle changes offered, I think these drugs can go a long way, improving the metabolic health of our country. Yeah, tell me how much of a need there is for this in India. Give me a picture of health there when it comes to obesity and diabetes. That's a huge problem. India is probably the diabetes capital of the world. Obesity also is a major problem and it's a bigger problem here because, you know, Indians, if you go by BMI, Indians have more metabolic disease at lower BMI's compared to the West. So people whose height to weight ratio is lower? Exactly, that BMI. So if I take two people with the BMI of 28, for example, an American would be much healthier metabolically compared to an Indian who has the same BMI. You know, the Indian would be at higher risk for heart diseases, higher risk for diabetes. So that is why we are at high risk for metabolic liver diseases, what we call nowadays. So I think weight loss will play an important role. But a small word of caution here, we need to be careful with the side effects and not get carried away just because

27:37these drugs are cheaper. They are prescription drugs and advised with the correct lifestyle advice, they can go a long way improving patient's lives. I understand there are a lot of clinics kind of gearing up to provide more weight loss and diabetes treatment because of the profits that might come from these more excessively priced drugs. Is that something that you're seeing? Not in a way. Just like Mumbai, but I'm sure this is happening all around. And I also, the government has stepped in actually. You know, last few days, government has put out some regulations and ultimately these are prescription drugs, which should not be prescribed without doctor's prescription. They need regular monitoring side effects are there apart from the well-known gastric side effects, which include nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and constipation, which are well-known of. There are some other not so common, but significant side effects, which include pancreatitis for which patient can require a hospital admission. They also include long-term can lead to sarcopenia, which can lead to some muscle loss and thinning of your arms and legs and feeling weak. So I think

28:37these side effects cannot be ignored. So I think prescription is very important. Regular follow-up is very important and government regulation and pharmacovigilance is very important. What is your hope for the change that these drugs being more excessively priced might bring for the health of the Indian population? When used correctly in the right patients, this can go a long way in changing our prescription patterns earlier with the higher cost. These you know, we used to offer to a lot of patients, but not all of them could agree to it because of the long-term cost. So now that cost barrier would be taken off and we'll be able to offer this to a lot of our patients who should be able to offer that the current reduced prices. And with that, when people lose weight, the benefits are immense. These drugs coming down in price significantly, of course, does not mean they will be accessible to everyone who will be able to afford these. Well, we're working class folks be able to afford them in India? I think so. See what I've heard as of today is around more than 50 Indian companies are going to produce these genics,

29:37which would be available in the next one to two weeks, some of them as soon as tomorrow or day after. Some of the drugs are going to go down almost say 2000 rupees per month, which is in terms of dollars say around 20 dollars per month for a drug like semi-glutite. Now you can compare with the prices in US. I think it goes up to almost $1,000 per month if I'm not wrong. So now that money, a lot of our patients are able to spend because when you have diabetes, when you have blood pressure, when you have cholesterol issues, some of the times you're already on 8 to 10 drugs. Your prescription is very long. That's where if I offer this drug, which can help them get the diabetes under control, which can help them get their weight under control, I might end up cutting down some of the other medicines. I have to tell them, okay, you spend this much money here. And maybe I cut down this one medicine now. You come to me after a month. If you lose 3 kg, maybe I might think of cutting down one more medicine, which is very, very possible, very practical. We are doing that. So there's a lot of savings, indirect savings involved. Rahul Bakshi is a doctor who treats diabetes in Mumbai.

30:43Cuba is an economic freefall driven by a de facto oil blockade instituted by the US. President Trump has been clear that he hopes this will lead to the collapse of Cuba's Communist government. He said, on Monday, he believed he would, quote, have the honor of taking Cuba in some form. This is all happening just 10 years after President Barack Obama paid a historic visit to the island. So today, we look back at the history of US Cuba relations. My colleague, Marco Orman spoke with Lillian Guerra, a professor of Caribbean history at the University of Florida. He started by asking her about former Cuban President Philhencio Batista. In 1933, there was a revolution in Cuba that was extremely popular and we found our man in Philhencio Batista, who staged a coup January 1934. We immediately recognized his government and then he proceeded to really be our quote, strong man in Havana and rule the place from 1934 to 1944.

31:45So in the 50s, when he stages another coup, March 10th, 1952, he's once again a known quantity. He's a very good friend of US diplomats who are looking for stability and looking to see that the Cuban government represented US investors interests at the cost, in fact, of Cuban sovereignty and often for at the cost of of citizens demands for a constitutional democratic and accountable regime. Well, anyone who's seen Godfather Part II will recall the scene in Havana on the eve of the revolution and the big CEOs from across the Western Hemisphere hoping to get rich with Batista's help. By 1959, in real life, Batista flees Cuba and the revolution is led by Fidel Castro begin to establish a new government. Did the US recognize a new government? Well, yes, they did. In fact, there was a kind of like reality check in the State Department. They realized that they had no real contacts or reach into the opposition because their

32:45ambassadors in Havana had been so close and in bed with Batista since 52. There was a recognition of a need to create a better relationship and 59 was going to do it. That was the goal. Yes, so was it ideology like capitalism versus communism that ultimately drove a wedge between the US and Cuba? Or was there a specific moment that caused relations to sour? There was a specific moment. The Cuban people since the 1940 constitution had been wanting a grand reform, which was effectively a law that would take away or rather set limits on how much any individual or corporation could own. And so May 59, that land reform is passed. It is extraordinarily well received by the majority of Cubans. And of course, sugar investors from the United States had been lobbying the US government to prevent that from happening. And then they wanted the United States, frankly, to invade Cuba as it had done in previous moments of Cuban history in order to

33:48prevent this reform from taking hold. Yes, so you said that was May of 1959. So not long after the revolution took hold, how did the US react? There was a fight between the US State Department under Eisenhower and his intelligence community over whether or not they should try to create a subversion. And the intelligence community, the US that wants to invade, they win that argument. This is really the inflection point where you left off there between the US and Cuba. What were the effects of the embargo in Cuba and what impact did that have on Cuban perceptions of the US? Yeah, so I would say that a lot of Cubans, incredibly, because they saw this standoff between Castro and Washington as an unfair kind of a game. They saw themselves as sort of David and the United States as Goliath. By the time everything is nationalized and the government has 80% of the economy in its hands, December of 1960. The United States is going to pull back its diplomatic representation and it looks like both countries on our war footing. So between January of 61

34:53and April of 61, you get a mass mobilization on the island of hundreds of thousands of militia to defend against possible invasion. And the Cubans or rather the United States is recruiting Cuban exiles to create a kind of surrogate army that is to invade that failed miserably at the Bay of Pigs. So it's after that that the embargo becomes permanent. So for many Cubans dealing with the economic blowback from the embargo, leaving the island was a big option. We've seen waves of migration from Cuba to the US throughout the decades with a notable example in 1980, the Mariel Boatlift. What was happening in 1980 and how does migration connect to the relationship between the two governments? Yeah, no doubt. It was a safety valve for Fidel Castro to rely on. Anytime there was mass discontent or increasing opposition to this unanimous kind of mandate of loyalty to his regime and his leadership. And so you get the Mariel Boatlift so that people who want to go pick

35:58up their relatives who are discontented on the island can do so. And you have 125,000 Cubans, if not more, lined up to leave the island. And over the course of the next five months, they do leave. He demonizes those folks because more than 70 percent of them are under the age of 30. And so it was really really showed how what would look to be from a lot of people's perspective on the outside, you know, a very still very popular regime that it wasn't. And then it was not legitimate in the eyes of its youth. So this is the Exodus has been a means by which the state stabilizes itself. And no doubt the last few years where we've seen about 2.8 million people leave the island more than ever before in the history of Cuba. That has been, you know, a huge boon to the government in terms of stability. But you know, at this point, it's got no legs left to stand on. So let's fast forward to the 2010s. As we mentioned today, Marx the 10th anniversary

37:00of President Obama's visit to Cuba, really the high water mark of the attempts to normalize relations with the island. How did he do that? And why then? Obama radically changed the policies with regard to who could visit the island. It came, that category came to include, you know, more than 100,000 Americans annually who were not just researchers or people with family. But Americans who wanted honestly to go to Cuba and wanted to see it for themselves on cultural exchanges, but just as individuals. He also made it, they put no limits on how much money Cubans could send their family members on the island. And that really, really began to move things on the, in so many visible ways. There was a dramatic change. And Obama's visit itself was stunning. It was stunning. Nobody expected that a U.S. President would ever visit. Let alone that he would be a black president. And let alone that he would be allowed to freely

38:02speak to the Cuban people in ways that were utterly inspiring and that were about not just how both in the United States and Cuba societies and nations were built by slaves. But that both of our societies were committed to democracy and that they could work together citizen to citizen. So this kind of speech in particular that he gave when he was there, really for the first time, silenced and sidelined the dictators. So can you draw a line between that ultimately unfulfilled moment and today? Yes, I want to say that I think on the island there has been so much despair that has been a product of the economic policies that the state implemented during and after the pandemic that just the Cuban state is the Cuban state. Yes, the Cuban state coupled with really devastating collapse of infrastructure. I mean, Cuba had five blackouts, nation-wide blackouts in 2025. Nobody had ever experienced that. I mean, they had had timed blackouts, blackouts,

39:08ever caused by hurricanes, but never had the entire island gone black. So all of this had generated so much outrage. And frankly, on the social media that I've been looking at for the last couple of weeks, one of the things that Cubans rely on is their dark humor to get through tough times. And it was really kind of disturbing that many people, when we started bombing Iran, they reacted to that by saying, hey, we were supposed to be the next in line after Venezuela. Where are you guys? Yeah. And what does that tell you that they're waiting for help from the United States? It speaks to just how desperate a lot of islanders are. Maybe the majority of islanders are for any kind of change because they have spent really literally decades in scarcity and austerity. I mean, I have to recognize that one of the results of the opening, the expansion of entrepreneurialism in Cuba, that Obama created, was it really for the first time young people saw

40:09future on the island. And their goal was not simply to leave. And then that all went away. Well, since Trump's return to office, I mean, he has, as you know, been steadily ratcheting up the pressure on Cuba, shutting off the flow of oil to Cuba from Venezuela, even floating the idea of a coup in his words, a, quote, friendly takeover. How do you see the path forward for the U.S. and Cuba, Lillian? So we heard from President Miguel de Escanel on the island that for a month, the Cuban government has been negotiating with the American regime, the American government. Now what we're hoping for, I think, those of us on the island, those of us who are abroad, like myself, is that there would be a release of political prisoners because there are more than a thousand who are being held, most of whom were arrested in 2021 for protesting on the streets when there were millions of people protesting on July 11th. We're hoping that there will be a legalization of multiple political parties and that there will be some transitional council of state that hopefully will

41:11include things like the civil society that has, you know, against every possible odd managed to rise from the ashes of its own criminalization under communism. So there, there's a possibility of seeing a kind of international intervention towards democratization that would entail excluding the communist regime, but especially, you know, the armed forces who are not neutral in this. And my fear is that that Trump and his folks are interested in working with the armed forces in Cuba because they, precisely because they control the keys to the economy. So to see them remain in power with no movement towards a real control and consolidation of accountability from their state and participation representation of the people, that is really, that would be extraordinarily, not just disheartening, it would be devastating to the hopes and dreams and destiny of Cuba.

42:15Lillan Guerra is a professor of Caribbean history at the University of Florida. Thank you so much for joining us to go over this really fraught history. Thank you so much for doing this. This is the world I'm Carolyn Beeler. Today is the holiday of no ruse celebrated on the first day of spring in communities across Central Asia and the Middle East. In Farsi, no ruse translates to a new day. The holiday traces back about 4,000 years to Zoroastrian traditions. Each country and community that celebrates has its own customs. Reporter Fereva Nawa is an Afghan-American living in Turkey. She hosts an annual no ruse party in Istanbul and most of her guests are friends who don't normally celebrate the holiday. Before we sign off for the weekend, we have this one last stop tagging along

43:15with Fereva as she prepares for this year's party. The first day of the spring season is sacred for me. The rebirth of nature after the hibernation of winter brings a hopeful energy to my home wherever I've lived. My family is celebrated now ruse with fanfare since I was born in Afghanistan. With my two dozen closest cousins, we had family picnics, painted boiled eggs, ate a sweet dried fruit compote, especially made for now ruse, and worn you clothes all while Soviet bombs dropped on my city hit off. Now ruse was one day when we tuned out the war and set aside politics. When my family fled the Soviet invasion to the US in 1983, we continued the festivities with our diaspora community. But once I moved my kids to Istanbul 10 years ago for work, I had no extended family and no community, and no ruse could hit a political nerve in Turkey. That took me a little

44:19while to understand. At first we talked casually about the holiday and get stares. Turkey's ruling elite had banned displays of Kurdish language and culture until the 1990s. The marginalized Kurdish community responded by celebrating the holidays of form of resistance. They jumped over fire, danced holding hands, and made political speeches. The fire is meant to burn away bad luck from the previous year. These celebrations are legal now, but Nauros came with a complex history in our new country. In this environment, how could I pass on our traditions to my kids in Turkey, by throwing a party at home? After a new year, it's very sincere. We dance with drawing, flying high, high, high. Where we have so much fun, better, and then we have fun. That's my oldest daughter, Bonu, reading a poem she wrote at our first Nauros party here in 2016. We only had 10 guests, her classmates and their parents. In this video I saved on my phone,

45:23she's 8 years old, and excited to share a holiday she loves with her new friends. Her younger sister Andisha jumps up and down, waiting to open her gifts, place next to our sofa or tablecloth. Our guests enjoyed learning about our culture, so I decided to make the party a yearly thing, with food, poetry, and dancing with friends, and maybe forge a community. A decade has passed and our Nauros party has grown to 40 guests, an event for friends from every background who display whatever talent they have. Some sing. Now or never is the song. The singers are Almas Kuzulkaya and Isabel Ehrhardt. They're professionals, but they put on an impromptu show at our Nauros party two years ago. Others play instruments. And I'm going to play a song took a song named His Happiness by Zulfiliwana Dip. It doesn't sound so happy though.

46:28Okan Chakmak is from Istanbul. He played the clarinet for Nauros three years ago. Chakmak's baby threw up his arms and quietly listened to his dad. Most of the guests recite poetry in their own language, like Chakmak's wife Anastasia Lokenin. She's from Russia and preferred to recite a poem by Russian poet. It's a lyrical ballad about hope after loss or separation. We got the gist from her tone. The quieter guests end up dancing in a group. This was last year's Nauros. Friends boogie to Afghan pop music as others clap. Nauros requires thoughtful preparation. I start

47:37shopping a couple of weeks before the day. Bono is 18 years old now. She comes Nauros shopping with me in our neighborhood for this year's party. Ok, I'm going to maybe sing a song this year, Bono. What do you think you're going to do for the Nauros party? Me? I think I'm going to write a poem and I think a lot of people are going to show up probably more than we expected. She's right about that by the way. I don't even know where all the guests will sit. I'm not very excited for the decorating because it's a lot of blowing up balloons and I don't like that. First stop is the flower shop. To buy the Nauros flower, Hyacinth. We placed the sweet scented hyacinth on our table as one of the seven symbols of spring. Many Iranian and Afghan households painstakingly decorate their so-for-out with family heirlooms like candles, a mirror and small painted bowls. We fill the bowls with things like garlic as a representation of health. Coins for wealth and apple for vitality. We grow grass from lentils and tie a ribbon around the greenery.

48:37I feel a mix of nostalgia and sadness as we shop. I'm hosting our last Nauros party in Istanbul. We're moving back to the US so Bono can start college and then Disha a performing arts high school. Friends are coming from Paris and Prague to join. It's going to be a full house made up of the community that it took me years to build. I love those. It tastes so good with tea. Pistachio's dried figs and sugar-covered chickpeas are snacks to munch on before the main meal. I plan on cooking a rice dish mixed with mung beans topped with a beef sauce and minty yogurt. Bono and I finish our shopping and return home. I find Disha making posters for the party. Disha's 14 and the resident artist and the family. What are you gonna write? Nauros Mobarak. What do you like about Nauros? It has like sentimental value to me and it's been in our family for as long as I remember. And it will remain in our family wherever we live.

49:41Our guests from Iran and Afghanistan are anxious about the ongoing wars in our homelands. I hope it's a day to escape the news of war and embrace the life that spring brings. For my daughters and I, it's both a beginning and an end to another chapter. For the world, for Ibanewa, it's tumble. The world is produced by GBHNPRX, Broadcasting Weekdays from the Nan and Bill Harris Studio in Boston. Find us online anytime at theworld.org and check out more of our reporting on YouTube. We are at the world news, GBH. I'm Carolyn Villa. Have a great weekend, everyone. The world is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy and peace. More information at carnagy.org. By the Lumina Foundation, committed to a fair universal system for learning beyond high school

50:41that offers every American the chance for a better life. LuminaFoundation.org. By the PRX Ambassador Council, whose members include Judy Piggitt, the Gruber Family Foundation, the Schmidt Family Foundation, and Gavin Salmanese LLC. The world's theme music is composed by Ned Porter. The world is a co-production of GBH Boston and PRX. PRX PRX From PRX