The Market Isn’t as Nervous as the Headlines Want You to Believe

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To investors,

It seems like every day we are being bombarded with negative headlines, scary predictions of a big market crash, and the promise of economic destruction right around the corner. The people pushing this negative view of the world will point to data points like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey as evidence that American citizens are in big trouble.

But as the Wall Street Journal’s Gunjan Banerji recently pointed out, the Goldman Sachs Social Media Economic Sentiment Index has diverged in a big way from the Consumer Sentiment Survey.

Which one should you believe? The Goldman survey that measures what people are saying online when they think no one is watching or the academic survey that asks people to fill out an online form with specific “measurement” questions? I’ll take the social media sentiment every day of the week.

It isn’t just social media though. Mike Zaccardi shows Google searches for “AI bubble” have started declining from their recent peak.

My takeaway from that rapid decline is that most of the AI-related fear was actually just a hysteria induced by mainstream media coverage that served a constant barrage of negative stories for the last few weeks. Nothing has really changed about the AI market or the AI companies, so the fact that people are not furiously asking “are we in a bubble?!” tells me that people are probably not worried about a real bubble being present yet.

They shouldn’t be worried about a bubble either. The Federal Reserve is starting to pump capital back into the market. Tom McClellan says “tor those keeping score at home, this new QE will actually be QE5. We had QE4 after the Covid Crash in 2020.”

This QE is happening at a time where the US government’s finances are improving too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that “the current calendar year-to-date deficit is $1.52 trillion, which compares to a deficit of $1.93 trillion for the comparable period last year under Biden, a 21% drop.

Not only is the deficit smaller under President Trump - the economy is also bigger. The full 2025 calendar year budget deficit to GDP may total only 5.5%, substantially lower than the unsustainably high 6.8% in calendar year 2024 under Biden.”

Forget the political sharpshooting and focus on what is important: the US government’s finances are improving. This is good for every American citizen. You can see another area where this is showing up in national gasoline prices. These prices are now the lowest they have been since March 2021.

And if that doesn’t get you excited, the Carson Group shows the last two weeks of December have historically been one of the best periods of the year for stocks.

I know people are winding down for the holidays, but the market may be coiling for an end of year run. It would be a welcomed Christmas present for investors across markets.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

How Fed Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin, AI & The Market

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.

Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.

Enjoy!

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