'The months ahead may not be easy' - PM

It's rap business today with two degrees.

The months ahead may not be easy.

That is the line that jumped out at me watching our neighbours

Prime Minister grab the mic for a re-national televised

address about fuel security last night.

Anthony Albanese's folksy enjoy your Easter sounded

a lot like there is much worse to come after the long weekend.

Take a look at this.

This is a map that's been doing the rounds.

A report from JP Morgan shows the pig moving through the python,

the big wave of supply disruptions feeding slowly

through global petroleum production and supply

since the US and Israel attacked and around struck back.

And if we punch in just a wee bit closer to our corner of the map,

you can see they think they're here lands from April 20.

We're yet to see the full impact of this conflict

on the supply lines and flow through to margins,

prices, and earnings.

Australian analysts reckon fuel restrictions

that were agreed to in principle there this week

will have to take effect in practice next week.

If that doesn't prompt New Zealand to lift its tactical response

to a notch to level two, what will?

So enjoy your Easter New Zealand and maybe think

hard about what sort of changes you may need to bid in

for the next few quarters.

They will not be easy.