The New Rules for Surviving Bitcoin

The risk is the opportunity. That's what this video is about. Don't ever forget that.

The risk is the opportunity. No risk, no reward. You've heard that before, right?

Well, some people seem to have forgotten it, so buckle in because I'm going in on this today.

I know there's other people out there who have their rules to Bitcoin.

But I just sat down and came up with my new four rules to Bitcoin. Or maybe it's four rules

for surviving a Bitcoin bear market or a drawdown or a dip or whatever you want to call it.

Rule number one, do your own homework. Don't borrow someone else's conviction.

Rule number two, no one knows what's going to happen in the short term.

Rule number three, talk his cheap. Place a bet or shut the f*** up.

And rule number four, there's no crying in the casino.

Are you crying?

Those are the four rules you need to surviving a Bitcoin bear market.

A crash a dip or a drawdown, whatever you want to call it.

I don't care. You get all hyped up about it. We're not in a bear market.

But there is obviously a ton of fun and fear and negativity around Bitcoin right now.

The sentiment is terrible. Bears are out in the full force.

Critics are out running their mouths nonstop.

New hit pieces in mainstream media every day.

What is financial times, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, you name it.

Everybody's taking their turn to come out of the woodwork and s*** on Bitcoin.

This is classic bear market stuff. It happens every few years.

All the people who said it was going to zero last time around

when Bitcoin's price was probably 5x lower than it is today.

And then they go super, super quiet during the bull run when we hit new all-time highs.

Now they're all back out to say it's going to zero again.

What's Bitcoin at? 16,000? It has another 17,000 to go down.

We're somewhere around 68 or 69K today.

Basically flat from the peak of five years ago.

We're down almost 50% off the all-time high from last year.

I believe we've closed down five months in a row.

On and on and on. Yada, yada, yada.

Bitcoiners are definitely getting kicked in the teeth from every angle right now.

The critics have a lot to say. A lot of articles, a lot of tweets,

and what are all of those articles in tweets worth?

Jack. S***.

Rule number two. Place a bet or shut the f*** up.

Do those haters have any skin in the game?

Do they put anything on the line?

Or do they just yap, yap, yap, yap, yap, yap, biting at your ankles like a little puppy dog?

Kill walking your doggy.

But if they really had some conviction in the idea that it's going to 10K or it's going to zero

or it has no real value, it's a Ponzi scheme, it's a tool of bubble, it's beanie babies.

Why don't they do something about it? Put their money where their mouth is in some way, shape, or form.

Short the thing. Bet against it. Do something other than just run your mouth.

No, they won't because they're all talk and they have no conviction in their cute little

engagement farming tweets about how it's going to zero yet again.

This is about fundamentals versus market sentiment.

As big corners, we've studied the fundamentals.

We've made our determination about what Bitcoin is and where it's value lies.

And then we placed a f***ing bet.

We put our money where our mouth is.

Imagine if someone were bull posting about Bitcoin all day long,

but owned no Bitcoin.

How much stock would you put in what that person has to say?

Would you believe they have any conviction at all behind their tweets?

Of course not.

And these critics are the same. They have no skin in the game.

They just want to shout from the sidelines.

We have skin in the game.

We studied this thing, grew our conviction, and then we put our money where our mouth is.

But never forget that if you, like me, came to the investing casino and you decided of all the

games you could possibly choose from.

You chose to play the Bitcoin game from the standpoint of the rest of the world.

Everyone else inside that casino or outside of it for that matter.

You picked the riskiest game imaginable.

To them, you are insane to play it at all.

If you allocated more than one or two percent of your net worth to Bitcoin,

you are a nut job.

I mean, you are off the deep end.

Most people think a 10 percent allocation into one single tech stock,

meaning Google or Apple or Nvidia or Facebook or Tesla is hugely risky.

Oopsie, Nvidia went up too much.

It's now 11 percent of my portfolio.

I better sell some to rebalance and take off some of the risk.

That's the normy, trad-fi mindset.

Let's see if I can make this whole video.

I'm losing my voice.

We've been shouting it too many Bitcoin haters.

But I got something to say, right?

We believe Bitcoin is deeply de-risked from where it was 10 or even five years ago.

But they still don't see it that way.

That's my belief as the main reason why it's sold off so much recently.

There is a ton of uncertainty about the future.

AI, tariffs, Fed decisions, geopolitical drama, war.

You name it, markets hate uncertainty.

And when things feel risky, most people just sell the riskiest,

most liquid thing they can.

If they own Bitcoin, that thing to sell is Bitcoin.

They're tourists and their traders here for a quick buck.

They're normies and trad-fies who buy it but can't stomach the volatility.

So let them sell it.

That's the point.

They don't want to take the risk.

They won't reap the reward.

The risk is the opportunity.

We did our homework.

We studied and we built conviction.

And we picked Bitcoin out of all the things we could pick

because we believe in where this is going long-term.

We believe in the fundamentals.

The fundamentals of the asset that lead to number go up

and the fundamentals of how it can change the world for the better.

But if you add it all up, all the reasons why it adds up to be risky,

that is the opportunity.

If it wasn't risky, if it wasn't volatile,

if there wasn't all this fear and all these haters and all these critics

and all these loud mouths talking about Bitcoin,

then there wouldn't be any asymmetry to the upside left.

By definition, the reward exists because the risk exists.

I don't mean the fact that the risk exists changes the level of upside we can reach.

What I mean is the upside would already be gone if the risk wasn't there too.

If the risk didn't exist, the upside would already be priced in.

So we built our conviction.

We made our bets and we put our money where our mouth is.

We put some onions on the table.

Safe, regular, normal people.

They're still in 60, 40 stocks and bond portfolio.

Or if they're a little bit younger, maybe they're in 75% VOO

and a wild, crazy 2% speculative bet on Bitcoin.

That their parents or their financial advisor are still trying to convince them to sell out of

because it's too risky.

You and me, we are the crazies.

We are the nutbags.

We're off the deep end.

Off our rocker.

Lost our marbles.

I know this is not 10 years ago where you had to really be crazy to put everything

you own in Bitcoin.

We are not the first ones into the fire.

But make no mistake, we are still one of the first waves on the front lines.

See here one of my other videos about what a small percentage of the world actually owns Bitcoin.

But being this early, we are definitely still going to take some bullets,

take some scrapes, take some bumps and bruises along the way.

You didn't think it was just going to be smooth sailing from zero to a million, did you?

And that's why most people are not here yet.

They're still waiting for the risk to go away.

Last year, some people started to think as more and more institutions showed up,

Bitcoin would become less volatile and it would become more boring and that would open the door

for more trad-fight, normy money to come in.

And maybe it did to a degree.

But we just saw it still can do a 50% drop in a matter of four months.

And by doing that, we just reinforced in everyone's mind that this thing is still volatile and risky as hell.

Which means they're not going to touch it with a 10-foot pole.

They're still scared of it.

Which means we also just reinforced that the reward opportunity is still there for those who have

the guts. Bitcoin has proved all the haters wrong for 17 years and it will continue to do so.

But if you're not willing to put in the work, grow your conviction and have some onions.

Then you do not stand to benefit from the upside.

If you can't handle me at my 50% drawdown, then you don't deserve me at my million dollar

Bitcoin or something like that. That's why most people are not going to show up until it's safe.

Until their financial advisor or their government or their favorite financial news platform or

their pension fund manager says it's okay, it's safe, gives them the okay to put 5% into a Bitcoin ETF.

We are the crazy ones. It takes a little bit of insanity and a lot of conviction to throw your

entire net worth into crazy magic internet money. The first instance of digital scarcity that's

ever existed. Tulip bubble beanie baby scam fraud Ponzi coin. Who the **** would put all their

money into that? You'd have to be a nut job. Normies will show up when the vast majority of the risk

is gone and they won't even realize that they already gave away all the reward.

The war and buffets and the Carl icons of the world, they won't be first. They'll be last.

They won't make a huge amount of money. They'll double or triple their money.

And if you're able to think for yourself and if you're able to weather volatility,

you can 10x 20x 30x on your investment. If you got into Bitcoin a decade ago,

you took on an insane amount of risk in the eyes of normies. Now you probably studied it and

grew your conviction and knew what you were buying and then maybe you didn't see it as risk,

but there were still regulatory risk, exchange risk and a bunch of other risks. As time went on,

those risks get less and less and obviously the reward in the upside has also gotten less and

less because you can't buy a hundred dollar Bitcoin anymore. $68,000 Bitcoin reflects the fact

that a lot of the risk is gone but not all of it, which means a lot of the insane rewards are gone

but not all of it. So forget all the fear and all the haters and all the fun. Remember the rules.

Do your homework. Study Bitcoin. Don't borrow someone else's conviction. No one knows what's

going to happen in the short term. That's precisely why you do rule number one. So you have

conviction to lean on when things get rough or they don't go according to plan and so you can

take advantage of the times when broad market sentiment doesn't align with what you believe to be

true because that's where the opportunity is. Rule three, talk is cheap, put your money where your

mouth is and don't listen to anyone who doesn't. Rule number four, no crying in the casino. We chose the

riskiest most volatile game in the casino. Did you really think we were going to get rich and

change the world without encountering a few ups and downs along the way? No, that's not how it

works. We chose to put our balls in the guillotine. That's too much because the risk is the opportunity

and because the reward is worth it. That's why I suggest you quit slacking and start stacking.