The next act in the oil crisis: Time to get ready for rationing and hoarding?

Welcome to Hub Headlines.

Today's program features the best commentary and analysis

published in the Hub for March 16th.

Up first is Peter Tertzakian,

writing on the next act in an oil crisis.

Is it time to get ready for rationing and hoarding?

Past is prologue when it comes to oil shocks.

Oil crisis rarely surprises.

We just forget the script between acts.

We've seen enough of them.

Price spikes are triggered by war, revolution, embargo,

sanctions, or blockade.

Think of the Second World War.

The 1973 oil crisis, the Iranian Revolution

and Iran Iraq War in 1980.

The 1990 Gulf War, the 2003 invasion of Iraq,

and more recently, Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Shakespeare had it right.

What has already happened often sets the stage for what comes next.

So, what comes next in this latest Iranian war?

A historical flashback is found tucked away

in a little-known government archive in Ottawa,

an original Canadian set of gasoline rationing stamps from 1979.

Back then, government officials had developed

a national gasoline rationing system,

complete with printed proofs of ration books and allocation models.

Under moderate shortages, private motorists might receive up to 50 leaders

and more severe disruptions that could fall to about 20.

Essential services, ambulances, freight carriers, farmers

would receive priority access.

Canada never mass-printed or distributed these stamps

because, fortunately, supplies stabilized before they had to.

But the stamps offer a glimpse of what one of the upcoming acts could look like

if today's tensions in the Persian Gulf,

which have led to the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz,

a critical choke point in the global oil supply

as well attacks on oil and gas facilities across the Gulf region,

extend much longer, rationing, hoarding,

and governments stepping into managed scarcity.

Oil crises tend to move through recognizable acts,

much like a story arc in a play.

Act 1 is the geopolitical jolt,

often involving a military threat on an oil-rich stage such as the Middle East.

Act 2 is the price spike, short and dramatic,

followed by the first wave of fear about damage to the global economy.

We are well past that stage.

Act 3 is the scramble.

Governments, markets, and consumers all adjust in real-time to the same uncomfortable realization.

The world still runs on oil and supply chains must keep flowing.

Queue the entrance stage left of the strategic petroleum reserves.

On March 11, the 32 countries of the International Energy Agency, or IEA,

announced a coordinated release of roughly 400 million barrels of oil,

the largest ever.

But consider the arithmetic.

Roughly 20 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz every day,

around 20% of global oil flows.

A back-of-the-spread sheet calculation suggests that a 400 million barrel release

buys the world something like 20 days of breathing room.

In theatrical terms, that's not a solution.

It's an intermission.

And intermissions are always followed by another act.

Act 4 is the return of rationing and hoarding.

When oil shocks deepen and markets cannot quickly rebalance supply,

policymakers begin reaching for administrative tools,

rationing, priority allocation, and consumption controls.

That possibility is no longer theoretical.

In Australia, supply fears are triggering precautionary behavior

with regional businesses and consumers stockpiling fuel.

The opposition party is urging the government to invoke emergency powers

to ensure supply shortages are prioritized amongst essential services.

China is tightening controls on exports of oil products and other strategic materials,

as the country prioritizes domestic supply

and seeks to shield its economy from wartime disruptions.

When global supply gets suddenly disrupted,

policymakers face a dilemma.

Should scarce fuel be allocated by price or policy?

We all wish we could leave at the play's intermission,

that there will be a quick resolution to this conflict

without further damage to the world's supply chains and economies.

Unfortunately, even another week of impairing the Strait of Hormuz

could well lead to rationing and hoarding,

especially in countries that don't have domestic access to oil and natural gas production.

Canada would seem to be immune,

given its status as the fourth and fifth largest producer of oil and gas,

respectively, in the world.

However, the majority of central Canada's vital supplies are not sourced from within the nation,

but from imports, dominantly from the US.

Further, post the 1970s energy crises,

Canada elected not to create a strategic petroleum reserve for the central provinces,

nor did it build cross-country pipelines to be energy-self-sufficient.

But there is little dividend in endlessly litigating what could

or should have been done decades ago.

The more constructive question is, what Canada should do now and in future

to shield ourselves and our allies against such economic malaise?

The answer is not complicated, though difficult to execute quickly.

Canada must double down on building durable supply chains for vital commodities,

energy, fuels, critical minerals, and the infrastructure that moves them.

That means growing domestic production and ensuring that reliable supplies flow nationally

and through exports to allies who are calling on Canada for help in building their resilience.

Resilience is now a strategic asset.

The lesson of the past 50 years is not that crises repeat like a shake-spirion tragedy.

It is that countries with secure, diversified supply systems

whether the tragedies far better than those that don't.

That was a commentary by Peter Tertzakian.

He is an energy economist, author, artist, podcaster, and dynamic public speaker.

You can read the full text of his article on our website, TheHub.ca.

Our second essay is by Alexandra Felis, writing on why her family didn't come to Canada

to live behind walls again.

I grew up in South Africa behind high walls.

Our home had electric fencing.

Armed security patrolled the neighborhood.

My school was surrounded by gates and guards.

Security was simply part of daily life in Johannesburg.

I remember holding my mother's hand tightly when we were out in public.

I remember driving without a seatbelt because if the car was hijacked,

you needed to be able to get out quickly.

Crime was an ever-present part of the environment we lived in.

It wasn't targeted. It was all around you in a constant threat.

For my family who decided to leave the violence,

Canada was supposed to be different.

And for many years, it was.

But today, I find myself beginning to live behind walls again.

In the wake of three shootings at Toronto area synagogues,

police presence has increased in Jewish neighborhoods.

I am grateful for that.

But the truth is that this is not a way to live.

When I drop my son off at daycare each morning,

I pass police officers guarding the building.

I find myself scanning unfamiliar faces before I get out of the car.

Driving through my Jewish neighborhood,

police cars sit outside synagogues and community centers.

When I walk into work, more police cars, more security,

every time I walk through the doors of our community center,

I think about how much of a target it is.

Every single time I leave my son at daycare,

I run through nightmare scenarios in my mind,

images like the massacre at Bondi Beach.

No parent should have to think this way.

And the truth is, the police cars won't stay outside our institutions forever.

In a few days, the heightened presence will fade,

and we will be left once again to live with the reality

that our schools, our synagogues, and our community spaces

are targets for extremists.

This is not a way to live.

And this is not the Canada my parent sacrificed so much to come to.

Synagogues are where our community gathers,

where we celebrate holidays,

and mark life's most important moments.

They are where we send our children to learn and grow.

They are the beating heart for many in the Jewish community.

These places, meant to bring us together,

are being violently targeted.

It wasn't enough that the mob showed up to protest outside our synagogues.

Now they're shooting bullets and setting fires.

What's next? I have built my entire life here.

This country gave my family opportunity and safety.

But today, I find myself seriously asking whether my young family,

whether my son, has a future here,

and that thought is devastating.

Now it's starting to feel like all the sacrifices we made to come here were for nothing.

The problems feel immense,

and the lack of urgency from every single level of government,

every public institution, every facet of society,

for years, has become unbearable.

Anti-Semitism has spread into every corner of our lives,

in our neighborhoods, on campuses, online,

and increasingly through acts of violence.

We can't escape it.

What once seemed unthinkable in Canada is now feeling disturbingly routine,

and increasingly, it feels like Canada has lost its way.

The values that once made me so proud

to call this country home, safety, respect, and courage to stand up to hate,

feel like they are slipping away.

Canadians need to wake up before it's too late.

The hatred directed at the Jewish community is only a symptom of something much deeper.

A growing extremism that rejects the freedoms and democracy that define this country.

If we fail to confront it now, we endanger the future of all Canadians.

And yet, despite the fear, despite the exhaustion, despite the frustration,

I also know how resilient we are.

The Jewish community has faced hatred and violence for generations,

and every time we persevere, we keep building, we keep fighting.

I did not come to Canada to live behind walls again,

but I am still here, fighting for our community, for our country,

and for the future my son deserves.

That was a commentary by Alexandra Felis.

She is the Senior Director of Strategic Communications

at the Center for Israel and Jewish Affairs.

You can read the full text of her article on our website, TheHub.ca.

That's it for today's edition of Hub Headlines.

We hope you enjoyed the program.

Hub Headlines is produced by Alicia Rao.

This program was narrated by automated voices.

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