The Next Inflation Wave Is Already Here

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Today's number 10.

That's how many grams of protein are in buffalo wild wings, espresso protein-y.

A cocktail infused with buffalo dry rub.

Ed, let me give you a little advice on how to keep things fresh in your relationship.

The next time your girlfriend asks you if you've loaded the dishwasher,

say, of course, and take a sip of coffee from a vase.

How much would you have to be paid to drink the buffalo wild wings espresso protein-y?

For some reason I got in my head, the coffee was bad for you.

So I never had a pill.

I don't think I had, I think I went to the doctor three times before the age of 40.

I just know external items whatsoever.

I think that's why I don't get sick now.

But anyways, never had coffee.

And oh my god, what have I been missing?

It's fucking amazing.

Coffee is amazing.

But I'm highly sensitive to it.

So one you would never find me at a buffalo wild wings.

Is that a restaurant? What the fuck is that?

Yes.

Never been to buffalo wild wings.

I've never been to buffalo wild wings.

It's a terrible place.

Yeah, I've never been there.

I go to hooters.

But I wouldn't go to buffalo wild wings.

Hooters without the girls.

Oh, that's okay.

That's like beach without the scent.

What's the point?

By the way, Scott, where are you?

I'm in Tulumed.

Why?

That's a good question.

I started coming here

about I did an annual trip with guys.

My closest friend Adam, who I've known for 50 years.

My other friend Augusto, who I've known for 25 years.

And my friend, Scott Sabah,

who I had known for 15 years used to come here every year in March.

And we stopped doing it because Scott passed a couple years ago.

And we decided to come down again.

So anyways, I'm in Tulum.

That's very exciting.

Are you ready for the big day tomorrow?

What am I missing?

What's the big day?

You didn't hear?

It's my birthday tomorrow.

Oh, you're turning 27.

Is that what it is, 27?

That's right.

27, baby.

It's going to be a big year.

You know what I tell everybody?

I'm not exaggerating.

When anyone says, oh, I love Ad,

I just go, he's 26.

That's the most impressive thing about you.

Is it your 26?

Let me tell you, 27, it's all downhill.

Your prostate starts to blow up like a grapefruit.

Your dick doesn't work nearly as well.

Which is, you know, 27?

Get ready to wake up in the middle of the night and go,

do I need to pee?

I think the answer is yes.

I'm actually already there.

I've been trying to figure out what it is.

I think it's because I'm drinking too much coffee.

But I'm getting up to go to pee at least once a night,

sometimes twice a night.

I'm not a night's where I go three times.

It's quite concerning to be honest.

You're peeing three times at night.

It's happened, it's happened.

It doesn't happen, but it has happened before.

Is it after drinking or?

Yeah, it's after drinking.

Well, all I got to say is worth it.

Worth it because when you're your age

you can go right back to sleep.

When I'm up, like I get up, it's like that's it, I'm awake.

I'm awake.

People think old people need less sleep.

We don't, we just don't sleep well.

Just walk around slightly tired all the time.

Yeah, I'm jealous.

Constantly grumpy.

Yeah, yeah.

Well, I have nothing that to loom conflicts.

Happy birthday.

I think that's very excited.

You know, it's, I'm glad to see finally

got your professional life sort of on track.

Sort of on track.

We're a little worried about you.

But yeah, it's going somewhere.

You're doing, yeah.

Ed Elson, you're doing very well.

And then I'm also my final update.

I'm heading to Vegas for a bachelor party.

And I know you're a, you're a kind of sort of

of Las Vegas.

So any, any advice?

Any tips?

Where are you staying?

We're staying at the uncle.

Oh, that's, that's the place to go.

And you'll meet a bunch of rich people from Texas.

It feels a little bit lame, but it's, it's hands down the

bestie.

Aria felt good, but it felt like a very modern,

it felt like if you got off from the wrong floor,

you might like wake up with stitches in your back

and one less kidney.

It feels very sort of dystopian.

It's good though.

It's good that you're going with

on the big believer in guys weekends and girls weekends.

I just think that big guys weekend.

How many, how many of you?

First one in a long time.

I think it's 10 of us.

And here's the question.

Is your girlfriend supportive or sort of making noises

that she doesn't like these weekends?

She's supportive, but I'm not sure how much I believe her.

She says she's supportive.

Uh oh.

To start drinking coffee from a vase.

Way to bring it back.

My partner literally wants me out of the house

as much as possible.

She's in Korsha Vel right now.

And I'm in, where am I to loom?

Anyways, just be awful to be around

and it gets easier for them to let you go.

Okay.

Wait, hold up.

Claire, do you have girls weekends?

Notice how I say that because I'm unconsciously homophobic.

Why would I even ask that?

Yeah, at last girls weekend,

I went to was in the North Fork.

It was delightful.

Trying to get one going for Canada

because I haven't been there yet.

And these are friends from college?

College, internships,

all over the place.

Yeah.

And the key is your partner does not come, right?

No, that's not true.

I mean, that's the.

Then it's not a girl's weekend.

Okay, no, but the fun thing is that we're both girls.

So that's a great point.

We all get to be friends together.

It's kind of a hack.

It's impossible for me to respond to this.

This is how the podcast

ends right here.

Just cannot really.

This is why we need to be gay sculpt.

We could just do boys weekends forever.

There you go.

So yeah, so it's, uh,

should we get to the headlines?

It's time to move on.

Let's do it.

Now it's the time to fly.

I hope you have plenty of the whereup all.

The Trump administration has requested funding

of up to $200 billion for the Iran war.

Meanwhile, the US national debt

soared to a record $39 trillion last week.

Still, the clearest most immediate impact

for people at home is on actual prices.

Since the strikes began 23 days ago,

fertilizer prices are up 25 percent.

Gas and diesel have both jumped more than 30 percent.

And jet fuel has surged roughly 50 percent.

So Scott, new implication of the war,

which we have been sort of hinting at before,

but now it's getting very real.

Uh, and that is the impact on prices.

Price of gas is skyrocketing.

Price of diesel is skyrocketing.

Americans are now spending $300 million

more on gasoline per day compared to a month ago.

And it appears that this is going to start trickling down

into other things too.

We talked about fertilizer prices, which are up.

Freight prices are also up around 30 percent.

Construction materials prices are up 30 percent as well.

I'm waiting for all of this to sort of come through

in the bills themselves at the end of the month.

We'll probably see higher food prices,

potentially higher housing costs as well.

In some, it's not looking great on the inflation front.

And it appears it won't improve until this Iran war is

at least at an end in some capacity.

What do you make of what's happening here?

As you know, I was more hopeful about military action

than most people, but there's just not getting around it.

It feels as if there should have spinning on a control.

And the ramifications are pretty immediate and pretty.

You know, how have I need to heard the term fertilizer before?

And now fertilizer costs are soaring.

It appears that the administration didn't do any real scenario planning

around what happens if the Straits of Horma's are blocked.

And we were, the markets were pricing in two rate cuts.

That's gone away.

So we're going to have higher borrowing costs for longer,

elevated across the board from mortgages,

car loans, credit cards, small business credit.

And we're just talking about the economics here.

Obviously, we're not talking about the loss of life,

but this is now potentially brought up a word

that your generation has never even really had deal with.

And that's the idea of low growth and inflation.

And it's called stagflation, which is nitro and glycerin.

It's really a toxic cocktail.

Real GDP growth has been revised down from 1.4 to 0.7% in Q4 2025.

At the same time, inflation is accelerating.

The PPI rose 3.4% year-on-year last month,

while core PPI jumped 3.9%.

That's the biggest increase in three years.

There's just no getting around it.

You've been doing a lot of good work on this.

I've been following your social feed,

which gets served to me a lot.

Let me just say a lot.

Look, the costs here are,

what's interesting about this for is we don't talk about it as much

in human terms.

We talk about it more in economic terms,

which I think is important,

but it kind of goes to this notion

that the idolatry of dollar and everything is about money now.

But I look back on previous Gulf Wars

and kind of Gulf I with George Herbert Walker Bush,

30 nations, 70 billion, 62 billion paid back by our allies,

UN resolution.

That's what a coalition sounds like.

And then W, sort of how to coalition, mostly symbolic,

UK troops, Australian troops, but mostly us.

And then obviously that, that went cost trillions of dollars

and 4,500 US servers,

men and women killed.

This, we've decided it's us in Israel.

And it just goes to this basic notion that

I think the fundamental mistake

of the Trump administration is believing that

cooperation is not the key to the West's prosperity.

Anyways, your thoughts on that.

Yeah, I think the dollar's point is quite interesting,

that we all quite focused on the dollars.

We're focused on it on this show, especially because we're a market's show.

But I think it's true that that's the way that a lot of people are talking about it.

And I think the reason that that is happening,

at least in the conversations in America,

is that it seems like the loss of life as some sort of preventative measure

isn't that powerful, at least to this administration or at least to our government.

And to Americans at large, it seems like when you see these death tolls,

I mean, as the saying goes, it becomes a statistic.

And it doesn't seem to be something that really impacts people.

But the point that you've been making as well

is that Trump does care about money.

He does care about how the markets react.

And so it does seem, I mean, we're in this very interesting place,

where we're looking at what's happening in the markets.

But we also know in the back of our minds that what happens on a dollar basis

may actually fundamentally adjust and alter the trajectory of what is going to happen in the Middle East.

Because if we can make the argument that this is going to be really bad for markets,

this is going to be really bad for bonds, this is going to be a huge inflationary crisis,

then maybe it kind of gets through to the administration, maybe Trump decides,

as he did with the tariffs that actually this is a bad idea,

because he does seem to be so motivated by money.

But it is a fundamentally ridiculous position to be in, to be having to make that argument.

But let's just put arguments aside.

Let's just look at it at a completely unbiased way.

Let's just look at what is happening on the ground.

The reality is prices are just rising.

So regardless of your political views,

the reality is your bills are about to get a lot more expensive.

And something that I've been thinking about, and I'm not sure this is the right analogy yet.

But I do think back to just a few years ago,

when in 2022, the S&P erased around 25% of its value,

and it was the worst year for the stock market since 2008.

It was a really, really bad year.

And the reason it was so bad was really because of inflation.

It was because we had this COVID problem,

which we thought was going to be a problem for various reasons,

turned out to be kind of okay.

We had a few good years coming out of COVID.

But then we had this supply chain issue,

where we realized that supply chains were completely messed up.

Everything was gunked up as you've said in the past.

And it resulted in ridiculous inflation,

which caused and forced every central bank around the world

to initiate this extreme rate hiking cycle,

which was eventually what sucked out all the energy out of the room,

and then eventually investors started to sell.

That was what we saw in 2022.

And I look at what is happening now.

Inflation is rising.

We're already at, I mean, people say two and a half,

but as Mark Zandee has told us, it's actually close to 3%.

The expectation is that inflation is only going to remain elevated.

And that's just assuming that everything kind of

sorts itself out eventually in the next few months or so.

But then again, no one really has a real hold on what the time frame on this thing actually is,

because it's a lot to trump at this point.

But the point being inflation is very much back on the table.

It already was on the table, but now it's back on the table doubly so.

And now we're facing the possibility of

we're not probably going to see as many rate cuts as we thought.

Maybe we'll see no rate cuts in 2026.

And now people are starting to talk about rate hikes.

That is genuinely becoming a real possibility.

In which case, maybe all of the tailwinds that we were expecting

for 2026 in the stock market, maybe those aren't going to materialize.

I mean, the two big tailwinds that we identified,

we had all of these issues that we were worried about,

the geopolitical issues, the AI issues,

but the two big tailwinds that we identified,

which is why we thought that the stock market would perform okay this year,

was one big, beautiful bill spending, which will still happen.

And we'll still pump money into the economy that way.

We'll pay for it later down the line when we have to

pay for our debts and deficits, but for now is a good thing.

And two, lower interest rate environment.

That might not be happening anymore.

And so I do think that we're approaching a moment where

we need to start considering the possibility that actually

this will have a really negative impact,

not just on prices, but also on portfolios.

I don't think we're necessarily there yet,

but we are certainly approaching that point.

With energy, there's just a huge domino effect

because fuel prices account for more than 50%

of the total cost of shipping.

I mean, ships are basically cheap containers that float

in the primary costs, and they're manned by like eight people.

I don't know if that's true, but they're shocking

few people on a piece of equipment that big.

It's fuel.

And so freight prices are up 30%.

And when freight rates double, inflation increases by another

another 70 bips.

And there's all sorts of costs here.

War risk insurance premiums for vessels traveling

through the Persian Gulf have increased by about 50%.

Traffic is decreased by about three quarters.

Fertilizer costs of 25%, who thought we were going to choose

the term fertilizer over and over.

And what's interesting, Gulf states produced nearly 49%

of the world's urea, a critical nitrogen fertilizer

in about 30% of its ammonia.

Ammonia's up 92% year on year, and the US ammonia prices

are 41% higher than margin up more than 21%.

And then construction material prices might go up

as much as 30%.

So according to the NAHB, when lumber prices tripled post-COVID,

it caused the price of a new house to increase 35,000.

So this is just ugly on every level.

And America is probably this year in for a rough road.

What I just asked Mark Zandy, and we talk a lot about,

is okay, what could go right?

And what's interesting is if you look at the markets,

the markets are sort of yawning right now in the US.

Other than the price of oil,

what the S&P's are 5% since it's all time high,

it just, it feels like there's a disconnect right now

between the markets and what's going on.

And I don't quite understand it.

It feels as if the market is basically saying, hold my beer.

I think the market has gotten very traumatized

by their previous bouts of panic selling.

And so I think that they look back at something like the tariffs as an example,

where if you decided to sell, because Trump decided to pursue this strategy,

then you looked very stupid all of a sudden,

because then the markets rebounded and he started to start to taco

and then things changed.

And ultimately just panic selling on that news was not the right thing to do.

So I think that what investors are doing right now is

they're in a very weight and sea mentality,

where they're like, well, he's done this crazy thing.

And it is kind of crazy.

And history would tell us that, yes, we're probably going to be in there

for a lot longer than they're telling us right now.

But let's just find out what the conclusion actually is on this war.

He told us that the war was very complete pretty much.

Maybe it is very complete.

In which case, it would be a very bad idea to sell.

So I think that investors are trying to find reasons and understandably so

to not view this as such a bad thing.

Because if you went with the worst case scenario,

if that was your instinct in the past, you got kind of punished for it.

So I think the question is increasingly becoming like,

well, when are we going to determine what the consensus is on this Iran war?

Are we going to stay there for longer?

Is it going to escalate?

Are we going to see escalations on the nuclear front?

I mean, these are all very much possibilities.

But I think that there has been an incentive

among the investment community right now to air on the side of optimism.

Because if you take the more negative view,

then as we've seen, you get kind of banged up in the market.

So they're not doing it right now.

So I think that partially explains the market's behavior at the moment.

I think the question then becomes like, at what point is a recession actually on the table?

And Mark Zandee, as you mentioned, he has the odds of a recession at 49% now.

And it's been steadily rising.

49%. That's such a whim protect.

That's he can declare victory no matter what happens when you say 49%.

But your point, I think your point is exactly the right one.

And that is if you look at the history of recent conflicts or wars in the markets,

what's happened is there's been a dip, oh no, it's war.

And then the markets actually go way up the following year.

So it feels like the markets have said every time there was a dip in the markets

because of the outbreak of hostilities overseas usually caused by us.

It's been a buying opportunity when the market goes down.

So it feels like the market's like, let's just skip to the buying opportunity or

we don't buy that no one no one wants to panic sell like they are in panic.

So no one wants to sell like they have in previous.

So but again, past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Exactly.

And in terms of recession, even distinct of the war in Iran,

I love what Jamie Dimon said that a recession is something that happens every seven years.

We haven't really had one in 17 years or 18 years.

So it's all right, 2008.

I mean, it's just been we're just so do.

And again, I go to for you and Claire, I don't think that would be the worst thing that could happen.

The cost of your lives, respectively, and of other young people

have gotten so crazy.

In recessions, depressions, I don't want to depression, a recession, an exogenous event,

they have it tendency.

Generally speaking, they're a healthy part of the cycle that transfers wealth

from owners to earners.

And so I don't, you know, you don't want to root for stocks to go down,

but it just it's basic math folks.

If you're investing, you and Claire are in the investing portions of your life

because of an exceptionally generous 401k matching program by your employer.

But you're you're in the investing part of your life.

So do you want stocks up or down?

Yeah, exactly.

You want them down.

And what is so dangerous about what we continue to do here is to print money

and go back to and ask for Congress as if we're just drunken sailors spending more and more

and racking up debt, which increases inflation,

which the majority of that burden is soldered by lower income households and especially the young.

So I don't, I'm not rooting for a recession,

but at some point we have to stop propping up the market with your credit card.

And if all of a sudden, I would imagine you and Claire, neither of you are homeowners, right?

Yeah.

I would imagine both of you would like to be homeowners.

So if the market went sideways or down substantially,

and all of a sudden real estate in Brooklyn was off 2040 percent, is that bad?

So I'm up two minds on this.

I don't want to see there's a lot of pain in a recession,

but it feels like we're due.

And quite frankly, recessions and down cycles are a healthy part of a cycle.

Otherwise, it's not a cycle.

I'm not rooting for a recession, but if it's a choice between a recession and

uncontrolled inflation, I'll take the recession every time.

I mean, the inflation is what's going to hit young people and lower income people, the hardest.

That's just you're losing your purchasing power.

But I think the people in charge specifically Trump has decided he really likes when stocks go up.

And I guess he doesn't really care that much if prices go up.

He seems to pretend like he cares.

He says that he, oh, I'm taking the affordability crisis seriously now.

But then he does everything in his power to make it even worse.

And then when it comes to housing, he says that he actually wants the price of housing to go up.

That made no sense.

He doesn't spend all of this money to just, it was just ridiculous.

So he doesn't actually care about affordability.

He doesn't actually care about prices.

And he's going to get absolutely clobbered for it.

We have to figure out a way such that the average household income of $77,000 can afford a home.

It shouldn't be drill, baby drill, which is Trump administration proposed.

It should be build, baby build.

We absolutely need housing prices through Yimbi legislation,

and through tax subsidies to developers to unleash the private sector.

We need a massive amount of construction.

And unfortunately, back to the original story, construction costs through tariffs,

anti-immigration policy.

I mean, you could almost argue if you were a bond villain saying,

how do you take housing prices up even more after an unbelievable acceleration?

Okay, let's make immigration nearly impossible for the people who are actually building them.

So let's take the supplies of building a home way up, right?

And let's take interest rates way up.

And then let's bomb the one place where all of the oil and gas is transported

through throughout the world, which is, as we're learning, literally the basis of the entire economy.

I mean, that's what we're really thinking is, we all need oil and gas a lot more than we would like.

It literally fumbles through to everything.

The transport to get the food from the farm to the grocery store,

and then the fuel that goes into the air plane and then the diesel that goes into the fertilizer,

which is using crude food. I mean, we rely on this for literally everything.

And so yeah, we have figured out a way somehow, as you say, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

We had inflation going down. It was trending down. We figured it out.

And now it's going way back up again. And it seems like that will continue.

Just going to work a go, right? There is an argument.

And it's not nearly the compensation for inflation and increase interest rates.

But I wonder if this is going to put renewed wins in the sales of alternative energy.

Yes.

And someone absolutely from a national security standpoint,

right? Just, okay. Unless we start bombing our own windmills or the sun gets blocked.

You know, it's much easier to block the streets of Formos and the sun.

The one stat that just blew me away, my

Keraswischer's ex-wife, Megan, who's this incredibly smart person,

chased me out of a session and said, I have data you're going to love.

And she showed it to me. There's this incredible site that shows where at that moment,

where Texas is getting its electricity. And the source of that electricity is a coal,

is it LNG? What is it? And at that moment, at 1 p.m. on a four-hour day, whenever it was,

Texas is getting 60% of its electricity from wind power and 18% from solar.

So the state that is, you know, the backdrop to landmen and we always think of Exxon and oil

and gas is really leading the nation in alternatives. And I thought, okay, if there's,

I'd like to think there's several civil linings here. I'd like to think what could go right.

But one of them might be, okay, does this get us thinking about more secure pipelines,

where we don't have vulnerable ships, and two, just organically built? I mean, if you're

South Korea, I would imagine there's a lot of new solar startups being pitched right now,

right? When it shows countries just how vulnerable they are, when they don't have their own

sources of energy. We'll be right back after the break. And if you're enjoying the show so far,

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We're back with provg markets. A big criticism of OpenAI right now is that it's

doing too much at once. The company is juggling a wide range of projects from Sora,

its video generator to a new web browser to hardware. According to the Wall Street Journal,

employees say that this do everything approach has created a lack of focus and made it harder to

understand the company's strategy. That concern is now starting to surface among the leadership

as well. The CEO of applications recently told employees, quote, we cannot miss this moment

because we are distracted by side quests. All of this raises a broader question. How does a company

decide when to double down on its core business or when to chase new opportunities? Scott,

I was very interested to see this and I wanted to get your views on it because you've run

multiple businesses in the past. Some have been very successful. Some have been less successful.

You know what it takes to either win or fail. What do you think of this dilemma? It's sort of a

classic business strategy question that OpenAI, the number one AI company in the world right now,

is facing and that is do we focus on the core thing or do we go have fun in these side projects and

see if something good can happen? Well, the majority of my businesses have been advising CMOs and

CEOs and the real question every good CEO needs to ask or the Gestalt he or she needs to.

When you're a junior level or middle level employee, you're trying to think about what could we do?

What new markets? What new geographies? And you're trying to find areas of growth. How do I create

more efficiency? How do I grow the kind of what could we do? What should we do?

When you become a CEO, the bigger question is not what to do. It's what not to do because every day

you're going to be pitched on great ideas from vendors, investment bankers and once you make

acquisitions, new employees trying to make a existing employee trying to make a name for themselves.

Everyone has everyone wants to be generous and visionary with your capital.

And if you look at this is a really good move on the part of Sam Alman in OpenAI because the specific

crowds out the general focus is the key component of almost any strategy if it wants to work. I

even think on a personal level. I hate side hustles. You want to be successful? Find something

you're good at, go 110% in and the difference between being wealthy and being very wealthy is the

last 10%. And that comes from extreme focus. And if you have side hustles, it means you haven't

found the right main hustle. So if you have side hustles, it means of exploring something until it

becomes a main hustle. Find. But if you look at Alphabet or Google, they brought in Eric Schmidt,

a fantastic manager to help scale the company. But then the adult in the room who actually ended

up going shareholder value, a great amount and doesn't get the credit she deserves is Ruth Perat,

the CFO. They brought her in from Morgan Stanley. And the first thing she did was like,

what the fuck is all this shit? What are all these pet projects from Sergey and Larry that nobody

wants to say no to? They literally had a project whose mission was to cure death.

And Ruth said, okay, do that with your own money and on your own time. And she killed a ton of

projects and focus people on this unbelievable greatest, greatest cash machine toll booth in

the history of mankind called search. And then said, you know, another dollar in search

creates a shit ton of money. So don't bring anything to me that you can't convince me isn't

going to create a shit ton of money with some reasonable timeline. So they have gone way too and

way too many directions. And it's a credit to Sam and their leadership that they're focusing.

And also they have huge incentive to focus because the enterprise market, which I think

is the more important part of the market here, anthropic is kicking the shit out of open AI.

And so they are doing what they should be doing. They are focusing. So this is sort of,

I think this is a really smart move for open AI. I think it's absolutely the right thing to do.

And speaking of distractions, can we talk a little bit about the metaverse, Ed?

Can we talk a little bit about the meta? I don't know if you saw this, but it ends up that the good

people at meta have decided they renamed the company incorrectly. And that that this

legless world is not the future. Clare by chance, per chance, do we have a clip about my views on this?

Well, before we play colors, I want to make sure everyone knows what we're talking about,

which is that meta's side project, I guess maybe they called it their main project,

but the side project of the metaverse, they invested $80 billion into creating this metaverse

platform called Horizon Worlds. People may remember from 2021 and 2022 when this is what all

that Mark Zuckerberg was talking about. As of last week, they are shutting that platform down.

Now let's cue the clip.

What is probably the biggest strategic misstep of the last five years was meta deciding that the

new growth engine would be the metaverse. No, it's not. It doesn't matter what the name of your

company is. This is not working. You got a guy who can't be controlled. He controls the company.

He's all in on the metaverse. He's going to, he's already rich. He doesn't care about money.

So his attitude is I'll show you. I'm going to prove everyone wrong and keep going all in and

spending tens of billions of dollars on the metaverse and shareholders are in the back seat,

buckled in and they can't get out and the doors are locked on this crazy nauseating ride called

the metaverse. As far as I can tell, the metaverse is just a bunch of in-cell panic rooms

created online for people who have, it just isn't working. I mean, my favorite stat about

Horizon's World or whatever it is is that my space currently gets more traffic

than Facebook's version of the metaverse. So look, this was the mother of all distractions

and hallucinations and it wasn't even get central hallucination. It has never made any sense.

And it went back to just this basic anthropological truism and that is throughout history,

the things you could eat or could eat you don't come straight at you. They come at you from your

side or behind you. And so you get uneasy and even nauseous if you can't, if your peripheral vision

is moving too fast. And the idea that people were going to take their mixed reality headset with

them and start watching, I mean, I remember care arguing with me about the future spatial computing.

I put one of these things on for eight seconds and I'm like, this is so fucking stupid.

And so nihilistic that we want to go into another universe. Our species is really used to and

really fond of this universe. And this notion that these weirdos want to take us into another

universe. Okay, I get immersive experiences. I like I max as much as the next person. It's a

small business. I enjoy the sphere, but for only a couple hours and I feel like a piece of beaten

flank steak by the time I live leave there in terms of sensory overload. By the way, I max really

hasn't been a good business. The sphere is supposedly still losing money. The way you want to live

life is you want to have a series of experiences that are wonderful in this universe where you have

control of your peripheral vision. And the reason why billboards are so incredibly still successful and

get decent CPMs is despite the fact you're not reading a billboard on the side of the highway,

you're very conscious of it because it's threats and opportunities. And just the most basic level

of anthropological or behavioral research would have said that okay, 40% of the people putting this

nonsense as condom on their head that they're getting nauseous within 20 minutes. And yet he kept

pouring. He poured 70 billion dollars a capital into this thing. And so I just think this was

if it hadn't been for the fact that the guy is a business genius and has added probably two

trillion dollars and shareholder values since they started this nonsense, this is an enormous

thought. It went way too long. Way too long. When you're coming like meta and you have those

cash flows, you can take big swings. One billion, five billion, ten billion. But to keep pouring money

up to 70 billion. And to rename the entire company. This is what we'll forget. They renamed

the whole thing. They were so confident about this. It's unbelievable. Guys, breaking as we record

this horizon world is not shutting down after all, according to meta bullshit. This is them trying

to have peace with honor. This thing is dead. This thing is dead. They're going to try and make it

happy and put it in hospice, whatever. You lost pop pop a year ago. Maybe still has a catheter

and there's brain waves there. This thing's being done. This thing's being euthanized slowly. I don't

care what they're pressually says. Let me just read you what I'm seeing on TechCrunch. Quote,

we have decided just today in fact that we will keep horizon world's working in VR.

Bosworth said as part of an Instagram stories Q&A. After a fan of the app reached out to say they

were quote heartbroken about the decision. Let me just say goodbye to Nana Ed. Say goodbye to Nana.

The end is now. Yeah. It does bring up this question of what makes a good side project. Because

this one was a horizon world's meta is met of us. Clearly a very bad side project did not work.

Apple Vision Pro looks like it's going to be a very similar story. It's not really working. They're

beginning to wind things down. Google Gloss. We're seeing a theme here that wearables or at least

virtual reality wearables are not really great. Google Gloss was a similar story. Didn't work.

Shut it down. Google Plus was another interesting side project. That was Google's social media

competitor, which they shut down in 2019 after trying to get it off the ground for literally

10 years. There are many examples of side projects being total failures and it doesn't work. At the

same time, there are some side projects that have been really successful. For example, just to stick

with Google, Waymo. Waymo started out as Google project chauffeur in 2009. I think the best

example probably would be the best side project in history would have to be AWS, which starts it

out as this internal thing where Amazon realized, oh, it's kind of difficult to communicate across

different teams. Let's build this digital infrastructure. They built it and then Andy Jassy

realizes, actually, let's turn this into a business. So he started to sell it and now it makes up

more than half of the operating profit for the company. Jeff Bezos himself has called AWS, quote,

the greatest piece of business luck in the history of business. That was a great side project.

So I think that becomes this interesting question like, what makes a good side project? When does

it work? When does it not work? And how can managers and executives take a framework moving forward

to understand which things to green light and which things to say no to? It comes down to management.

And that is so one of my first clients was Levi Strauss and co and they launched

they launched dockers, which was the fastest zero to billion garment and just garment brand in

history. And then they launched a new thing called slates. And what happens is is that a very

senior person says, this is my vision. This is my baby. In the way you please that person and perhaps

get promoted over to other people qualified is you tell them how amazing slates is and what a

visionary they are. And you start to ignore the actual data. And it comes down to doing something

really difficult. Posted notes from 3M was a side project, right? It comes down to holding

yourself accountable and setting up reasonable metrics at the outset. We are launching a new

podcast. We launched China decode. And I said, okay, we launched Raging Moderates by X date within

three months, six months, 12 months. These are the metrics that define success or not. And the

problem is you talk yourself into believing that your ugly step headed child is your child

and it's beautiful. No, you have to be able to perform in fantasy side. Facebook had a phone.

Amazon went into auctions. And they did it the right way. And I think Bezos is a very

just one operator and said, okay, Amazon had a phone. They said, yeah, they had a phone,

I just remembered. They said, okay, if it doesn't get X pickup by Y date, we're pulling the plug.

The key to successful side projects is not the ones that work. It's the ones you're willing to

kill because you only have so much wood to put behind an arrow. So absolutely look for growth,

battle test of shit out of it. But also, you know, we just launched a sub-stack strategy,

subscription revenue. We have realistic, but yet at the same time, aggressive benchmarks. And if

we don't hit them, we're going to get together as a group. And we're going to decide whether to pull

the plug on it. Fortunately, it's very successful so far. Please visit the sub-stack. But

but a CEO's job is to have the stones to try new things and to have the backbone to kill them

when they're not working and to say, okay, Slates, that was actually a third brand from Levi's.

I think it's got Slates. Okay, Slates. This was the right idea. We made the right decision. It's

important. We take risks. It's not working. Kill it. And, you know, well, it just needs more time

or it just needs more capital. Probably not. These things, the most of them that work,

they may get out of the gate slowly, but usually there's a lot of blinking green lights on the

shit that works. But again, what happens is a senior manager sees it at theirs legacy and really

appreciates anyone who's willing to go on their Iowaska trip with them. So it just comes down to

leadership and that's to say, okay, you know, HBO go HBO now HBO Joey bag of donuts. All right,

folks, I get all the sub brands trying to address different audiences and different technology

platforms. It's not working. Let's just go back to HBO. So it comes down to leadership because

people you are paying, generally speaking, most of them will say whatever the fuck makes you

feel good because if someone makes you feel good, you're more inclined to want to promote them.

Well, that's not the litmus test. Is this person really good for shareholder value and setting up

really tangible hard metrics and holding you and themselves accountable? Yeah, it's such a good

point. We were discussing this as a team and that there were some basic questions that we think

are pretty crucial to if you're going to launch a side project if it makes sense. Three questions

that we think are relevant here. One, do you have the money to make the bet? And that's a very

important fundamental question. Like you need to have cash coming in the door. I mean, that's

Amazon had figured that out before they launched AWS. They had significant cash flows at that point

and then they had the they were able to make that bet. You could argue that meta had that

positioning as well. The second question is, is it leveraging existing infrastructure? Like,

are you the right person to be doing it? If you're like a clothing brand, like no, you shouldn't

launch like a candy company just because you think it's a good idea. That's not your wheelhouse.

So you shouldn't be getting into that. I'm the third thing and this is the the thing that I think

meta didn't really question the meta did not answer correctly or perhaps never even asked themselves.

And that is, is it actually a good idea? It's not that helpful, but maybe we can put it in terms of

is it actually solving a problem? A real problem that people have. And if the answer is no,

you just can't do it because no amount of capital as we saw will turn a very stupid idea, a very

bad idea into a good idea. The money doesn't solve the problem if the idea is stupid. And that

seems to be this mistake that meta made is they never really thought to ask themselves, is this

even a good idea? Is this, are we actually solving a problem here that people want to be solved?

The answer was no. And then they invested so much money into it, probably so much pride and ego

into it as well. Victims of the sunk cost fallacy to the point where they decided like, we have to

keep going because we've bet the wrong, we've bet the farm on it, we literally bet the name of

the company on this walking out. And here we are in 2026 and it didn't work. The only answer we'd

add to that is that a good versus a bad idea, sometimes the best ideas are just fucking crazy and

feel like a bad idea at the same time and sometimes logical stuff just doesn't work out. I think that

you need to veer away from the subjective and the qualitative towards the objective and the

quantitative. And that is a good manager and a good CEO says, all right, what does success look like

and then put hard metrics around it and say in 90 days, we're going to look at what we think

success would look like and also what does failure look like and constantly reevaluate whether we're

and also a basic economic term that management and CEOs understand, but they don't really live by

is the notion of sunk costs. And that is we've put so much energy and so much capital into this

thing. We love it's, you know, no, that's gone. From this point forward, if we were at a standing

start, would we put more money into this? That's the only question that matter. That money's gone,

it doesn't matter. That effort gone, the time spent on it doesn't fucking matter. From a standing

start here and now where this project is, how it's going, how well or how not well it's going,

would we continue to fund this if we were outside investors who had no legacy investment,

no effort, no affinity, no affection for it. We'll be right back and for even more markets

content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarket.com.

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We're back with Profty Markets. Disney finally has a new CEO. Josh Demaro officially took the

helm on Wednesday stepping in at a difficult time for the company. External risks including the

Warren Iran way on its tourism business, its studio business phases, headwinds and of course

its linear assets continue to decline. Just as an example, after four years of steady ratings gains,

the Oscars stumbled last Sunday with viewership on ABC falling 9% from a year earlier. So Scot

Josh Demaro has taken over as of last week. He has a steep road ahead. What would be your advice

to the CEO? How would you get Disney back on track at this point? I think they should merge with

Netflix. I think that this is a business that's consolidating the requires so much heft. I don't

think that's a good idea if I were the head of the F2C of the DOJ. But you ask me for advice.

The parks is just an unbelievable business. I build from the parks out and parks in the studios.

They'll do what they need to do. They'll shed the decline in cable assets so they go good bank

bank. This should be an events experiential parks company with a really strong studio and a

fantastic, really clear positioning around family, around streaming. I feel like Netflix and Disney

Plus are kind of the only ones I would know. I think I know we'll be around in 10 years.

It's an incredible company. It kind of identified. It's sort of a bit of a proxy for how Hollywood

has done the last 10 years and that is great content, products never been better,

enormous disappointment from a shareholder perspective. Disney stock is lower than it was 10 years

ago. What does the S&P? The S&P is what I don't know, tripled since then or doubled in the NASDAQs

tripled. Meanwhile, if you invested in Disney or worked at Disney and have options,

you know, a huge disappointment. And if Bob Iger also, just to reverse engineer this to

a learning for executives, you're always better off leaving too early than too late.

And Bob Iger represents that in spades. Bob Iger came home from Vietnam eight years

ago after a tour, Metals Pinduist Chess, total hero, one of the most respected people in media

history. And then he got bored, started heckling from the cheap seats, performed a coup from

outside of the palace and went back to Vietnam and is coming back with, you know, a massive injury.

His reputation has really been diminished. If he had just stayed away, he would probably be one

of the people everyone's talking about to run for the Democratic nomination for president.

He had that kind of credibility. He had that kind of luster. And to be fair, he faced a lot of

headwinds in the broadcast market and Disney's had a good launch. But there's just not getting around

it. The way you're evaluated as a CEO is on the shareholder price and the share and the shares

of vastly underperform, you know, in the last 10 years, I think Netflix is up four or five whole

fold. Disney is flat. So like this is a mixed legacy. And I think at this point, I called or I saw

Ted Surandos at one of these fancy awards shows. I'm like, okay, you saved 120 billion by

not buying Warner Bros. Your stocks up 10, 15%. You've got another 60 billion, 120 billion,

if I'm a 60 billion is 180 billion. I'm like, here's an idea. Disney is 170 billion. Why wouldn't you

merge? I mean, while the FTC and the DOJ are asleep, why wouldn't you, which I think is a bad thing?

Why wouldn't you just, can you imagine Netflix and Disney? Can you imagine Disney getting to

incorporate the IP of Wednesdays and stranger things into their parks? Who in the world could not

have a subscription that involves either Disney, Disney Plus or Netflix? They would just, they

would just kind of, I mean, in some that merger shouldn't, shouldn't happen. But I said to, I said

to Ted and I don't know Bob and he's probably sick of me ship hosting him, although he does love,

he does wear lovely cashmere sweaters. But I think that if I were him, my ultimate swan song would

have been merging with Netflix. The new guy, I think Disney is a great buy right now because

I think the parks are arguably the largest business with the largest mode. I think Disney has real

pricing power and they're paying a conglomerate tax right now and that is because basically the

earnings call goes like this. Streaming media platform finally paying off, we're getting real operating

leverage there. The parks continue to be one of the most dominant, dominant entertainment assets,

experiential assets in the history of the business. You know, you're, people call child services if

you don't take your kid to Disney and spend $1,200 for a shitty hotel room by the time they're five,

right? And then, and then it's like, okay, and then they go on to apologize for all of their broadcast

ESPN, ABC, Disney, etc. As soon as they get rid of that shit, they could sell all their

broadcast and cable stuff for a dollar and the stock would be up 20% in the next year.

Because what happens is you pay a conglomerate tax and that is when you have a company with multiple

entities, basically the market finds the shittiest asset and assigns that multiple to the whole

business. And that's what's happening to Disney. If Disney were just parks streaming in the studio,

you know, champagne, cocaine, with an eight ball of ketamine, that's a good time. That's a good

time, Ed. Can I tell you I'm into loom? Can I tell you I'm into loom?

Well, how you route that out there? Yeah, like, I mean, Disney's Polk's business is that's

that's the crown jewel at this point. And it is really, really interesting how that has changed

over the last few years where there is now a premium on these as Josh Brown puts it, heavy asset,

low obsolescence assets. I mean, things that are in the physical world, people will pay a lot of

money for. That's the premium that investors are paying for. So they have that as we've talked

before, like Netflix wants to get into in person experiences too. And probably a year ago,

maybe two years ago, we had a whole conversation where Netflix was trying to open up kind of like a

Netflix park, some sort of experience. I'm not sure what's happened since then, but I know that

it's something they're interested in. And if they had a strategy on that front, it is something

that investors would certainly reward them for. Plus, if you can have a duopoly, you might as well

take it. And it seems that the FTC and the DOJ, at least under this administration, have no

interest in actually regulating monopolies and duopolys. So if you can do it, you should you should

do it. You should make it happen. So I would agree with that. I do find it really interesting what

happened with Oscars viewership, where it fell 9%. It was the lowest viewership since 2022.

Among the key demographic, which is 18 to 49 year olds, it fell even harder. It was down 14%.

We saw the same thing with the Golden Globes this year. We saw the same thing with the Grammys. And

as everyone knows, the linear network is just getting crushed at the moment. But just anecdotally,

something that was really interesting. I wanted to watch the Oscars. And I had dinner with my

girlfriend that night. I said, let's watch the Oscars tonight. And she said, really? And I was

like, yeah, like you don't want to watch the Oscars. No, I don't really want to watch. I was like,

why? You love this stuff. This isn't someone she likes. She's interested in celebrity news.

She likes this stuff. Why don't you want to watch it? And she said, because I'll just watch it

tomorrow on TikTok. I'll just watch the clips because then I don't have to watch all the bullshit

for three hours. And that was when I suddenly realized like, I mean, this is a clip economy at this

point. And that's the big problem, which is that these, I mean, maybe people didn't watch the

Oscars on ABC. But I know that they watched it on TikTok. I know that they watched it on Instagram.

I know that they watched it on YouTube. Those are the platforms where people are consuming

this information and consuming the content. And in a lot of ways, the live Oscars on ABC,

that's just sort of a Trojan horse. That is a Trojan horse. That is a vehicle for the clips

that get put out on social media the day after and the day after that. And that's where people are

consuming all of this content. And so we've been looking into this. And it is becoming a lot more

of a thing. I mean, you look at sports as an example, which is all about live. It's about watching

the match. Only 31% of young sports fans today say they watch full-length live matches.

74% of them say that they get most of their sports content from social media platforms.

I look at my own behavior. I suddenly realize I'm watching the Premier League basically on YouTube

because I'm just watching the highlights. And so I think if I had to give advice to Disney,

if you want to fix this Oscars problem, you need to start investing in the clip economy. You need

to start figuring out, okay, yes, we've got this live thing called the Oscars, but that doesn't

really matter. What matters most is clipping it up and packaging it and spraying it all across

social media the day after. That's where we're going to try to make the money. And that's where we

should try to sell the ads too. We need to develop a very real ad strategy around social media

that isn't so dependent on beaming this onto the linear networks. That would be my advice.

I did a meeting with the Academy of the Board of Governors to the Academy and they asked for advice.

Everything you're saying makes sense, but unfortunately Alphabet has other ideas. And that is,

if you want to display their stuff on YouTube, they'll give you just enough money to kind of make

it worth your while, but not enough money to anywhere justify the amount of money that ABC

used to play to broadcast the Academy Awards. First off, movie theaters. And it's an

atham to say this and all these producers and directors talk about the collective of going to

the movies. I think movie attendance is down 40% since COVID. My kids don't go to movies. I mean,

we used to go when they were little for kids movies. I've been to two movies this year. I went

saw Roof Man because my friend produced it and I'm a huge Channing Tatum fan and it was great

and I love the paternal theme in it. And I went and saw one battle after the other, which was a

good film, but it's sort of like $350 million artistic masturbation. It won everything.

Okay, I'd be shocked if that movie gets its money back. And what a shocker people don't want

to watch a three hour show interrupted by commercials of a bunch of high school graduates

lecturing us on geopolitics. It's just what a shocker. That's not exciting. At the Vanity Fair

Oscars party, I just track down the, you know, I'm good at running other people's businesses,

I'm even better at running other people's lives. I can't help but give advice to people.

I tracked them down. I'm like, dude, let's be honest. The magazine business was dead 10 years

ago. You just didn't realize it. What you should be doing. That party, that experience, they should

be running live Oscar viewing parties all over the world with an aspirational guest list where they

get influencers and brands to party similar, similar to what Bustel does charge them a shit ton of

money. Hey, you're Patrone and you want to sponsor Russell Crowe who's in Sydney. He can't be in LA

whatever or up and coming Australian actors whoever they are and we're just going to print

money. They could make so Vanity Fair could have, and maybe they did this, but I didn't see

many brands, they could make 10 million bucks off that party and they could make two or three million

bucks easy at different experiential events all over the world for viewing parties of the Oscars

or different things. But the actual business of airing the Oscars for three hours,

if you're watching the Oscars on ABC, it means you're also at that point where you need to opiate

and do constipation medication. It's not a good reflection on where you are in life. And the only

reason you want to watch it is because you're in this business. So it's not, and by the way,

they don't want to invest in it right now because where is it going? It's going to YouTube.

So that's where the world's going. You know, Conan O'Brien with the most talented people in the

world summarized it perfectly that the next host is going to be Mr. Beast. And he was choking,

but it's kind of true. So this, the future for awards ceremony's broadcast is going to decline

the future for experiential events. I mean, even just at a demographic level, the top 10%

of all the money, I don't, I don't want to go, I don't want to watch the Oscars, I don't want to go

to the Oscars. I'd love to go to going to a great viewing party and meeting interesting people

and having an excuse to get dressed up and feeling interesting and fabulous. You pay a lot of

money for that. And why wouldn't the Disney parks have like a big viewing party? Or anyways,

I think that I think there's a healthy willingness to spend real money. You know, my son was

super excited and I was super excited to do this. He and his other buddies who were seniors in

high school went to Universal for their Halloween night and they went for a full weekend. They did

Halloween for a weekend and I'm sure they spent a lot of money. But I love that as opposed to watching,

you know, going to a movie and watching Halloween 11 with Jamie Lee Curtis, the absolute hottest woman

of the 80s said, I'm sad you're not older that you missed out on that.

Anyways, yeah, the Oscars, look, it's a dying thing and you're right, it'll be clipped up.

But the company that can make money on those clips is the new host of the Oscars and that's YouTube.

I think this is where media companies need to get a lot more aggressive though in their social

media strategy, which is because it's true. It's like you're going, you're playing on YouTube's terms

and we have this in our own business. We make way less money from the automatic ads that YouTube feeds

the viewer when they watch one of our videos, which is why we have decided to do something a little

different, which is that we own the relationship with the advertiser ourselves and we place the ads

that we want directly into the video and maybe the YouTube audience will say that's annoying to

which I would say just skip past it, so whatever. But the point is because we own that relationship,

that's allowing us to negotiate the price for ourselves, which means that we're not having to

throw money away to the big tech overlords over at YouTube or at Instagram or any of these other

sort of social media, neo-media platforms. And that's what all of these companies need to do

without the Oscars, without Timothy Chalamet, without all of these superstars, Michael B. Jordan,

no one's going to watch anything. You need these people and you need the Oscars and you need

vanity fair to get them together and get the cameras out and put it on the platforms. And then

the question is, how do you monetize that? You're not going to make a lot of money if you just post

the Instagram clips and they just, you just get the money from from Instagram and Instagram is

in control of the relationship with the advertiser, which is why unfortunately you're going to need to

get a lot more aggressive on negotiating and owning the relationship with the advertiser and

placing the advertisements directly into your videos. The audience isn't going to like it very much,

that's on you to figure out how to make the audience okay with it, but that's what you have to do.

If you want to stop getting crushed by these social media companies because this is the future

of media, it's all on these platforms, it's all in the clips and that's what you have to make the money.

I like your vision, I think it's optimistic. This is unfortunate, I think the reality is.

And that is, so we're on YouTube, we're getting 100 to 200,000 views per episode. Add sense,

we make almost no money from it's $3 CPMs. It's a shitty business unless you have the scale of

tens of billions of people watching videos every day, which Alphabet does. I think they split

the revenue with you. I think it's 50-50. If you're in the podcast business, you get 70% by

having an ad distribution network or a partner like Vox, so already Alphabet is flexing their

muscles. But here's what I have seen every time when you partner with a big tech platform,

and that's the following, they fuck you. And that is, you build a business, you're getting revenue,

and then Alphabet, and what you say makes all the sense in the world, bake the ads into the actual

video itself. My prediction, and Neil Mohan has been more generous to the creative community,

or not generous, but he realizes in order to inspire more and more content, we need to give more

and more revenue to the creators. Eventually, eventually, the history of big tech,

give them enough money, such that they will devote resources, and then overnight, they do a panda,

they do it with brand pages, and they fuck you. Well, what are we going to do? We're just going to

sit here and get fucked, or we're going to do something about it. I mean, I am advocating for

do-signing about it. We sell ads. We sell ads directly to the advertiser. We insert them to

our audio product, of which there's no monopoly platform that can get in the way. The distribution

here is not controlled across a monopoly. We have Substack, and there's several competitors

of Substack, where we get a subscription strategy, which is already creating row revenue.

Newsletters, getting people to pull out their credit card and pay, whatever it might be,

there are means of making money in the MiOX system. What I'm suggesting is, the moment you have

meta, I was on the board of the New York Times, and we were making a shit ton of money on something

called about.com. We did all this, we get creators to do something on Southern cooking,

optimize it for Google, Google, send a ton of traffic to us, and we'd have links to buy stuff,

and we made my overnight, Alphabet does a panda release, and we wake up the next morning on our

revenues down 40 to 60%. I love Jessica Yellen at News Not Noise. I think it's a really important

organization. I think she does incredible work. I'm an informal advisor here, and I'm like,

you're too dependent on Instagram, and this is what Mark Zuckerberg, the moment you have any margin,

he will come for your margin. This would be my prediction on Alphabet. Neil has a different

vision so far, and I respect and appreciate it. We love being on YouTube, and it's been great for

us. At some point, if the same behavior continues to cycle through the DNA of Big Tech, they'll go,

oh, you're baking videos into your thing. Now, fuck you. We have technology to start those out,

or you have to pay us 90% of that revenue. Eventually, they come for you. Eventually, they fuck you.

And that has happened to almost every brand. In Facebook, you just have brand pages, and they

encourage adidas. You have to have a bigger brand page than Nike, so they spent all this money

company, but there was all sorts of ecosystem around it. And as soon as your ecosystem gets big

enough that it's real margin, they come for you. So I think they've got to establish direct

relationships, as you said, with the consumer. They do that in streaming media, no monopoly controls,

you know, controls their access, if you will. There's still a lot of bitters for their content.

If I were, so let's apologize for the words out. If I were on the board of Disney or if I were running

Disney, we need something called Disney Plus Plus. What does that mean? 50 bucks a month, 100 bucks a

month. You get all the Disney properties, ESPN, everything, all the streaming media, and you have

access to Disneyland for free on certain days when it's only Disney Plus Plus members. And you don't

have to wait in line three fucking hours for the avatar ride. And you get special, you get special

products, special merch, but you are a Disney Plus Plus household because people think, wow,

we go to Disney once a year. We should do this. It's a great, no, no, you go once every three years.

You just feels like once every month because it's a seven circle of hell. But they could wrap

all of that special access to one of a kind merch. Days at Disney that aren't a fucking nightmare

where it's like a reasonable crowd, special birthday celebrations for your kid maybe at Disney,

that princess, that princess experience, and so many households would sign up for that. Instead,

they have the seven doors of businesses all competing with each other. They should have Disney

is in a position to have the ultimate family loyalty program. And the market loves recurring

revenue. The money you give up at the till at the entrance gate at Disney, the money you give up

from merchandise, the money you give up from the theaters were paying 12 bucks. That revenues

valued at whatever one to three times revenues. The recurring revenues you would get from a loyalty

program would be valued at five times revenues. So you could lose 10 or 20% of your ad revenue from

those shitty businesses at ABC or ESPN or even at the turn style. And you can increase shareholder

value 40 to 70% by moving everything into the mother of all loyalty programs. I think that's a good

idea and I'll just end with my advice to them, which is you should never post a clip on social media

ever again unless an advertiser is directly paying you for it. You should have a relationship with

an advertiser, get it in the clips somehow, negotiate a deal, get paid for it. Because the current

system is that we just do it for free. We do it for free. We think that it's marketing, but ultimately

we realize actually now this isn't marketing. This is the content. This is where all the money is

being made. And yet we're not seeing any of it because it's all going to Instagram or it's going to

YouTube. It was going to a tech platform. Own the relationship with the advertiser and get paid

for every single clip you put out would be my advice. And then my final family disagree with you on

Scott is that one battle after another was autistic masturbation. That was an incredible

movie. I loved every minute of it. A third of a billion dollars. Expensive. If it didn't,

if it didn't have Leo de Caprio and and Benicio del Toro and that one woman who's literally the

hottest woman in the world right now, I would say that thing cost three million dollars to make.

I mean, yeah, good film, good film costs three hundred and thirty million dollars. I wouldn't

invest in it, but I would watch it several times. In fact, I have I've watched it again. I loved

that movie. All you need to do to be in the movie business is marry a rich man and be a documentary

filmmaker. Whenever anyone comes up to me and says, I'm a documentary filmmaker, I'm like,

oh, okay. So you married a rich husband in a boring business. And they're offended. I'm like,

okay, let me get you married. You married a guy 30 years older than you that made his

billions in iron ore smelting. And now you're changing the world of documentaries.

That's me. That's my next life. 27. That's what I'm doing in 27. I'm just angry because I have

been so unsuccessful. Let's take a look at the week ahead. We will see consumer sentiment at the

mall. We'll also see earnings from GameStop and Carnival and earning season will wind down.

It's called any predictions. Open AI Sora social media app is going to be shut down soon.

So Sora is the kind of open AI TikTok version. Kind of the social media platform of AI generated

content where users upload video on models generated from Sora. It's short from content.

And you can share with your friends. And when it came out, it was number one in the app store.

And it garnered 1 million downloads actually faster than chat GPT. In the beginning,

it was going fast and chat GPT. But the party's over. Downloads fell 22% month over month in

December and another 49% in January. It's downloads are collapsing. And effectively, I think

what you have here, again, it goes to the notion of knowing when to shut something down. And with

the renewed focus on focus, you're going to see this thing be shut down. Users are dropping

lifelines. Open AI spent an extreme amount of time and money to keep the lights on here.

Estimates are that it costs $15 million a day to run Sora or $5 billion a year and that it's

only bringing in less than half a million dollars per month. So essentially, the app is a venture

that is not central to open AI's core competencies. It's not attracting users or revenue. It's generating

massive losses and it's a distraction. So in addition, it's kind of bad for the brand.

Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of online videos created by AI. It's the definition of AI

slot. And about three-quarters of users say they would be uncomfortable consuming fully AI

generated creative content. In some, the correct strategy of focus, the first victim of that is

going to be open AI Sora app, which is going to be shut down.

For a fresh take on the markets.

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