The Oil Crisis Narrative Is Misleading—Here’s What’s Really Happing

Good morning and welcome to the Eastman Financial Report.

I'm Dan Eastman, your host and today is Wednesday, April 1st, 2026.

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If you've been watching our coverage of the Middle East situation and the Iranian situation,

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Okay.

So let's jump into the news today and of course yesterday it was a little bit difficult

broadcasting on Tuesday because, although I'm behold, the spot prices of oil were up,

they were up to the three digits and it was a little uncomfortable having to explain

why this thing hasn't cratered the world or not at two to three hundred dollars per

barrel.

And I did my very best yesterday to explain the dynamics of how the oil business works.

And of course, again, I must, dear students, if this is the Eastman Financial Report, the

whole purpose was to teach critical thinking skills so that when you see economic and financial

headlines, you think deeper and you don't jump to conclusions and either make a bad investment

because you've seen the silver minnow swimming by but failed to notice the filament on the

nose or perhaps it affects the way you perceive our society and vote.

So there are really two big reasons why we hear financial noise in the media.

There's a whole lot of interest in getting people to do one thing at a time.

And all of them to do the same thing at a time.

And of course, how we affect their ability to cast a ballot during the election year.

And this is a midterm election year and there's a lot riding on the elections as we reelect

our federal government, which is $39 trillion in debt and is running 2.5 trillion plus annual

deficits cannot possibly balance a budget.

And it takes us poor 160 million American taxpayers who chip in $5 trillion in government

revenue.

And it's just not enough.

It's 2.5 trillion short.

So what do they do?

They sell bonds to cover the gap.

And of course, the bond market gets ever and ever and ever bigger.

That's the 39 trillion that's out there floating.

And of course, when you read the Fed report a couple of weeks ago, it was 48 trillion total

that's out there.

And you realize, wow, this is what we do every two years.

We send a whole fresh new house of representatives to Washington to perpetuate this situation.

And one third of our unit, I did say it's Senate.

But anyway, I want to talk about the oil thing because of course, today, 24 hours later,

and exactly 24 hours from today, the oil prices have declined.

Of course, and keep in mind, I'm talking about spot oil prices.

I'm not talking about future contracts.

This is the 9x contracts contracts that are trading.

You can, you can, the issue of all deliver, you know, a boatload of oil to your refinery

and six months at the $100 barrel, that's the forward contract.

And as soon as those contracts are let or they're issued, they entered into there,

become a binding agreement, they trade like speculative instruments.

So you can speculate on these things.

And of course, I would recommend you not do that.

I do never give investment advice, especially in something as sophisticated as trading contracts

in the oil market.

That is not a game for amateurs.

But the point is, we're looking at spot prices today because spot prices affect the headlines

and the headlines is what moves people toward voting for the other guy, or perhaps making

a bad investment choice.

And that's what we want to dissect this.

So what do we have today?

Well, always, we notice that gold is creeping up a little.

It's $4,798, almost $4,800 an ounce.

It's creeping ever back toward $5,000.

That's a different story for a different day.

Silver is up to $76 off the bottom.

But oil, we want to talk about oil.

And yesterday, of course, the West Texas intermediate, which is this is if you're a good old

American and you want to wave the American flag and be proud of the oil industry, there

is no better place on earth or at least the United States to do that than Midland and Odessa

right in the middle of the Permian Basin, because that's the, those are the people who produce

the West Texas intermediate crude oil, which is so wonderful for refining that is a global

benchmark, but it's a very important benchmark for American production and American gasoline.

Well, the futures are, excuse me, the spot prices soften.

It's not 100 like it was yesterday, it's down to 99 because there's a little bit of

negotiating going on between the Iranians and President Trump.

And I'm not a gamble and man, but I would, if I were, I'd be putting my money on President

Trump.

He is one of the most masterful negotiators this country has ever seen and is likely to

be the greatest negotiator the White House has ever seen with the possible exception of

George Washington.

It was pretty clever, but we'll probably never see again.

So I think George, I mean, excuse me, President Donald Trump will be doing the Iranians a

little bit of headspitting and that's why we're seeing the, the spot price is soft and

just a bit.

Not only down a dollar, but also when we look at the Brent, remember yesterday the Brent,

the North Sea oil, they have to drill all the way to the bottom of the North Sea, they

got to pump it up and run into a pipe to Scotland.

Very expensive, much more expensive than pumping it out of the ground in Midland and running

it through a pipe across, across Texas to the Houston refiners.

But anyway, Brent was $118 a barrel and now today it's 102, which is a rather substantial

drop in price.

And again, they have not overnight in the last 24 hours pumped so much Brent oil out

of the sea that it caused the prices to collapse.

These are prices that are based upon the, the immediate need of people who have those

trading contracts.

So it's 9x contracts to fulfill.

You have to supply source, secure the source of oil, the barrels of oil that you sold in

the contract and deliver it on time or your world will come rather crashing down around

your ears.

And that's what's going on.

What it tells you is that people who are looking to fill their spot obligations, the Brent

oil has dropped rather significantly.

West Texas dropped a dollar, which is 99, but also Mexico, which is more and more paralleling

West Texas, is staying consistent at $100 per barrel on the spot market.

And of course, I'm more and more intrigued with the Mexican oil industry.

Even like the United States, Mexico, of course, has had a rather turbulent history.

And if you subscribe to the vault, you can dig through the vault in the Eastman Financial

Report, reruns, live in the vault.

So if you wanted to go back and use the amazing search tool to find the episode where I talk

about the difference in colonialization between the English, how the English colonial world

has turned out in the Western hemisphere versus the Spanish experience with colonialization.

And of course, the French, which is Montreal, you'll begin to realize that the Mexican government

for all of its fame and glory and their respected neighbors to the South, their history is

very, very interesting, very turbulent, but their stability is not the United States.

So their oil industry is effectively nationalized under the PMAC system, which is a company

run by the government, or at least the government, influence.

And they're a global producer and trader of oil, and they've done very well.

And of course, being in the Western hemisphere, where we don't have crazy neighbors with religious

fanaticism throwing, lobbing, missled into us all day, it's a much more stable area

to produce oil.

And of course, if you think about where Mexico is, it's the tornado-shaped country, just

south of the Rio Grande, but then as it connects across the Panama, the Central American

slice, and then the first thing you hit is Colombia and Venezuela.

And these are, again, major oil producing for Venezuela, obviously, it's the largest

reserves at the moment, known on planet Earth, and the Venezuelans suddenly became friends

of the United States almost overnight, just recently, like within the last couple of months,

which is a real blessing because now we have Venezuela and Mexico, which is a global

player.

The Mexicans are respected globally for their sophistication in the oil business.

And these guys know how to pump oil, they know how to move it.

And coupling that, of course, with the United States, Permian Basin moving up into the

sands, into the decoders, and then up into our dear friends to the north, the realm of

King Charles III is dominion of Canada, which is his private property, but he's got like

68 million people live in there.

And so the point is, this is a Western hemisphere oil producing area that is second to none

on Earth.

So when we look at the situation in the Middle East, and if you, again, if you go back to

the Eastman financial report or reruns, I've been talking about the geopolitical strategy

of lessening the importance of the Middle East and allowing the rest of the world to expand.

And you say, well, you know, Professor Eastman, that's an interesting theory.

It's, of course, your theory.

And it is, it's my opinion, and I've been expressing this because I've been around, like

I said yesterday, for an amazing number of years, it's hard to believe.

And when you look back and you put all little pieces of puzzle together, what you realize

is that it is, and everybody on this planet's great interest to not have this Middle East

in constant fermentation and turmoil, which is divided into factions.

I talked about the Sunni versus Shia.

This is not something that came up in the 1950s or 60s.

This goes back into the traditions and the faith system of Islam.

And apparently, I've done a little research on this.

And apparently there were two descendants of the Prophet Muhammad who didn't get along

with each other.

And there's two different factions.

And to this very day, I've been causing a great deal of disruption around the globe.

In addition to their preference that other neighbors would kind of like go back to Europe

and leave them alone, it's a quadrant.

And it's been a problem all of our lives.

If you look at people of my vintage and older, of course, you realize that we have grown

up with this situation.

This has been an entire generation or two of terrible violence.

It's all funded by Americans who buy oil and put in their gasoline, turn it into gasoline

and they put it in their car and they're driving around living their American life.

And money is going to fund this crazy in the Middle East.

Well, eventually the world becomes more sophisticated back in those days.

China was effectively a very, very rural and very inconsequential place at the time.

When you think about when Mao Zedong and Shanghai Czech started to duke it up in the Nanchang

and that area, China was not a world power, but today China is a very sophisticated world

power.

Japan was a very isolated country.

Today Japan is a very, very technologically advanced country.

Even Latin America has come and made so many strides based upon the amazing liberation

of humanity caused by the digital revolution in 1984, back to the Super Bowl commercial

and the advent of the graphical user interface.

The world is sophisticated place and the world is tired of all of the noise coming out

of the Middle East because it's expensive, it's dangerous.

And frankly, the world has moved on from theological arguments.

If you look at the United States in Europe, 500 years ago I was a big deal, whether you're

Catholic or Lutheran or Protestant today, we're just kind of moving on and faith is in

the heart.

It should not be at the tip of your rifle.

And this is what the world is reacting to.

Now that's my opinion.

I would like to point out because major headline today that I am not alone in my opinion

that this situation needs to be fixed.

Well, other prominent people have come to the same conclusion and I'm just flattered

to think that none other than the CEO of the largest bank in the world has been quoted

having given a public interview in a major media platform.

And his comment was, we need to finish this thing and finish it right in the Middle

East with Iran.

He's feeling the same way that I am and of course I'm feeling the same way he is and I'll

say he's a bit older than I am, certainly a bit wiser but mostly of the same vintage.

It is, his comment was that Iran should no longer be a threat to everybody.

He didn't say anybody.

He said everybody.

So when you think about it, the CEO of the largest bank of the world, and of course the

guest host of the Eastern Financial Report all at the same time or saying the same thing,

it becomes apparent that geopolitical activities in the Middle East are to make that part of

the world a lot less rich and a lot less damaging to the rest of us.

And in order to do that, you have to take out the infrastructure, the one infrastructure

that makes those wealthy countries and that is oil and energy and that sort of thing.

So when you look at this war from that perspective and you look at, well, I paid $3.80 per

gallon at the gas pump, I'm not happy about it.

Well, there's a geopolitical thing happening.

It's a very large geopolitical thing and you get to be a bit player by filling your

tank and paying a little more money.

That's how you get to participate.

But the reality is the world is shifting and nobody needs a crazy Middle East that is

constantly funding terror and danger around the globe.

It would be much better if that was quiet.

And I think ultimately that is the goal of President Trump is not in there to deal with

oil.

What he's trying to do is make that problem go away and shift oil supply and oil production

and oil demand away from the Middle East to other parts of the globe so that other parts

of the globe can catch up and we diversify the supply chain.

And then we're not going to have to have every 10 years or whatever pick a number where

the Middle East blows up and everybody's gasoline prices go up because we can't have something

as critical to our infrastructure as energy tied to a region of the globe that is driven

by crazy.

And that's the point.

So I've got to take a break here.

I'll be back.

I'll talk about some other domestic economic news.

I'll be right back.

Thanks.

Hello, I'm Brandon House.

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times through the lens of a Christian worldview.

Okay.

Well, I wanted to finish up my thoughts on that.

One of the big stories is today is that the aluminum constraints in the Middle East,

of course, there are refineries where you take raw material and you turn it into aluminum.

Of course, those factories are being shot at by the Iranians and that is tending to disrupt

the supply chain of aluminum and, of course, we've re-natural, liquefied natural gas.

Of course, helium, you know, your kids aren't going to be able to have a birthday balloon

at the party because this stuff is so rare and so critical.

Why do you go to the store and you can buy helium-filled balloons for your kids' parties?

That's quite a phenomenon.

But the point is, this is all tying back into this theory that it would be in the best

interest of 1.6 billion Chinese and 1.61 billion East Indians and when you look at the population

of Western Hemisphere from Patagonia all the way to Greenland, you realize that the vast

majority of the world is tired of the Middle East and this is the game to change it.

So when we see these aluminum prices and, of course, everybody, you know, aluminum is

so scarce, everybody's throwing their cans around, it's a long process.

But the point is keep this in balance when you hear these stories because these stories

are written to create hysteria and hysteria does two things.

Number one, you can affect prices and make money if you can, and this is illegal, by the

way, you don't want to be doing something that will move a market or the SEC will come

and knock on your door or perhaps the futures commodity training commission.

You're not supposed to be manipulating free markets, but people try by putting on financial

looies, you'll tout a company, oh, the company's going to the moon and then six months later

the stock is down, down in the drain, you have to be careful with that.

And the second thing is if you create this aura or this perception that we've entered

into a war and the wheels are falling off and we're all doomed, it's time to, you know,

get to the polling place and we're going to change, it'll change, it's time for change.

You know, that's the problem.

One of the things I think was Winston Churchill that said democracy is a very, very ugly

way to govern yourself.

Unfortunately, there's no better system out there, but we see that because it is problematic

in how power shifts.

And you know, not to digress, I wanted to talk about some of the economic issues in the

US, but when you think about how our Congress has created this $39 trillion in national debt,

which is on, on, nobody will ever pay that off, we will, we will remanetize somehow some

way, whether it'll be Bitcoin, unless the quantum calculator guys are able to pierce the

Bitcoin code and destroy that, I don't think you can hack an ounce of gold.

I, I suppose you can chop at it with a, with a hand at you, but you know, it's pretty

hard to hack one ounce of gold coins sitting in your software.

It's a pretty hard thing to hack.

But the point is this is all driven, and it's all media driven.

So we want to be careful about that.

It's all purpose of this show, it's, you know, get people to think.

There's symptom, and another heads up, I've talked about this in the past, is that when

the oil comes out of West Texas, out of Midland, and Odessa, and that whole big Permian basin,

and that is most of West Texas, a little bit into Mexico and your Roswell, and all those,

there's really, really beautiful country out there.

But all of that oil tends to, well, much of that oil tends to come east, obviously,

to the Houston refineries, but there is a place in Oklahoma called Cushing, Oklahoma.

And I've driven through there, and in my energy development days, it's a beautiful, beautiful

Texas, Oklahoma-type town.

It's just out there in the middle of America, there's no healthier and finer place on

Earth.

But what you realize is Cushing has become the place where physical oil changes based upon

the NIMEX contracts that are traded in New York, which was the NIMEX, or at least it was,

it's all digital now.

But the point is, one thing you want to do in the oil business as an observer is to watch

the crude buildup of inventory at the Cushing facility.

And if you've ever been there, it's just a vast, vast tank farm for the oil.

It's just really impressive.

It's not, I wouldn't say it's the most beautiful place on Earth, those oil tanks, but it

is, if you love oil, it's pretty beautiful to watch all that oil.

But the point is, when you watch the crude inventories, that's one thing, something

oil analysts do, is inventories building, or is Cushing being pulled down or drawn down,

and they're building right now, and that will have an effect as well on spot price, because

what it's telling us is, and I talked about this yesterday on the show, when you go to

the gas station, as an American, you're Mr. Mrs. Consumer and all you care, you pump your

car full of gas and go shopping and go to the restaurants, your job is to consume, okay?

And if you go to the Eastman Finance Report, reruns early on, I tell you, I don't like

the idea of calling Americans consumers, because I, one would hope they have a greater role

in society than just to consume things.

But it's an important component, and your job is to wake up in the morning and consume

stuff.

We'll make some money and consume, okay?

Anyway, that's the problem, at least the psychological problem within the U.S. is that

people in America tend to think of their pocketbook, and of course, you know, it's rational

economic thought, and you go back to economics 101, one of the fundamental bed rocks of

economic theory is that people will act rationally.

You won't pay $10 for an apple when you can pay $2 for the same apple, because you will

preserve most of your resources so that you can have the broadest selection or the most

stuff.

You're not going to overpay.

That's a human, that's built into the human psyche, and it's one of the bed rocks of

how economics works, that people act rationally.

So what you can do, obviously, if you control the mechanisms of gasoline, and that is a

controlled industry, that's not a super competitive industry, it's not a monopoly, it's not even

a cartel, but when you think about it, how gasoline gets to that, how does it come out of

that machine at the gas station, okay, it's amazing, how many people don't know where that

gas comes from.

They think it's in that little box, you know, you put your credit card in, and then the

commercials come out on the screen, you push the mute button, because you don't want

any more input when you're trying to fill your car, especially if somebody's going to

rob you, you know, so the point is, people don't really understand that, you know, that

box is sitting out there with what the hole is underneath is this big tank, you know,

and trucks come and fill that tank quite often throughout the week, depending upon the

volume that that particular gas station is doing.

That truck, it comes, it's a 6,000 gallon truck, we've all seen them, if you see a truck

will flame decal on it, be careful, because that's 6,000 gallons of gasoline, and that,

you don't want that tip and over.

The point is, that truck goes to a terminal with great big tanks, and those tanks are

filled either by ship from a pipeline, or pipelines from here to there, or other train

cars or other trucks, so there is a big stash of gasoline in your neighborhood somewhere.

I mean, this doesn't get except if you're in California, they probably ship it in from

the east, but for the most of us, there are huge tank farms with gasoline, and that's

how we feed our distribution system within the state.

And of course, when you think about it, those things are, there are hundreds, there's

going to be a million gallons of gasoline in those big tanks, and that price doesn't

change.

That's purchased, it's paid for, it's in that tank, and it's going to be distributed.

So the ability to slow down the American domestic market lies within your ability to control

gasoline prices, so whenever you see a war like this happen, the first thing you notice

is gas jumps up 30 cents, 40 cents, same gas has been sitting in that tank at the gas station,

or in the tank farm near the gas station, somewhere within reasonable driving distance.

So what the oil companies are doing is that they're slowing down the aggregate demand for

petroleum distillate gasoline, so that they can better gauge on the back end.

It goes from the oil field through either a pipe or transportation ships, through the

hormones, to the refiners, the refiners make the gasoline, and then the gasoline gets

either pumped or shipped or railed to the tanks, from the tanks to the gas station.

The first thing they do is they crank up the price to slow the aggregate demand of the

consumer, because it gives them more time to analyze the market.

It's a situation where a movement is going to be a problem, or we're going to have some

really difficult times, so what you want to do is slow it down at the retail level, and

the point is you, the retail customer, are at the front of, you're at the Vanguard, you're

basically, the demand starts to slow because you're reacting rationally as a rational

consumer.

That's all part of how they manage the oil business, and sometimes the state government

also, well, they're gouging, well, they're managing supply, but the problem is, the average

person filling the tank, you're paying the freight, because you have no political power.

I mean, the big oil, the transport guy, they have political power, you don't, you don't

have power.

That's why you're the one taking the brunt.

Anyway, I'll be talking more about this, of course.

Tomorrow is unemployment Thursday.

I did want to note that the ADP report is out, and there's 62,000 new jobs in March.

We're not seeing the AI crisis, and I'll talk about that tomorrow.

I'm out of time for today.

So have a great afternoon.

Don't forget to go to worldviewfoundation.com and support our ministry by giving a donation,

and I'll talk to you tomorrow.

I'll have a great afternoon.

Bye.