THE PLAYERS Championship Picks for Golf One & Done Pools | Best Plays, Longshots & Sleepers

Hello and welcome to the players championship golf won and done video brought to you by pool

genius.

My name is Steven Andress joined each and every week on this show by the lead analyst

over at pool genius Jason Lisk.

You can follow him on Twitter at Jason Lisk in this week's episode.

We're going five deep on the most popular players is projected by pool genius for the

players championships, you know, it is the fifth major, right?

It's going to be major in March.

Can't wait to see that promo 18 million times this week during the tournament, but we

are also excited to look at the course preview at TPC sawgrass and the legendary island green

on number 17.

We'll look at our top three plays and contenders for each of us Jason and myself will give

you our favorite long shot this week and then we'll end the episode with our favorite

conviction play because if you're in a golf one and done pool, this is the most important

week of the year, the most projected money of any tournament on the PGA tour schedule majors

included this week.

So it's an important week for everybody.

I can't wait to chop it up.

First a quick recap of last week major hat tip to you, sir Jason for going with Ludwig

Oberg.

He had a great week overall for a guy like me who didn't have a top 30 Matt Fitzpatch

was T41, only made 78 grand.

I mean, if you look at what was happening here in the top 20, most of the guys that finished

in the top three top 20, all guys that were less than 3% on.

So even if you had a bad week, you really weren't hurt by it.

Yeah, not too bad.

Obviously, not many people had the two that went to the playoffs, but he and Bertor.

Yeah.

Oberg was probably the highest scoring guy that was over 1% owned and Rick run good.

I think more Kyle was probably second and then outside that, most people didn't make.

See the significant amount.

So I mean, the entries I had Oberg, I did move up.

And so that was a solid result, 1.2 million or so.

But yeah, a lot of people, we're in the same boat we talked about last week.

We've had three straight in the signature events.

We have low-owned winners, well under 1%, I mean, the tier was, I think, 0.4%.

And all of them, Bridgeman was very low-owned, even more Kyle was under one.

And so we're still at a point in a lot of pools where I don't have much of a separation

yet because nobody's, we don't have like 10% of the pool has separated by eating, you

know, a key winner yet, maybe 1% has.

And so you can still, I mean, we're going to, we're going to talk about the Rick Run

Good segment pool, which comes to it in this week, but a lot of people are alive for

that because just because there hasn't been a lot of separation where the leaders have

kind of pulled away from everybody in their way out in front.

Yeah, absolutely.

Just to kind of put a bow on what happened last week, Colin Moore, Kyle with his fifth

place finish at the Arnold Palmer, he earned $840,000 for your pools.

He was the only player in the top 20 over 3% owned in that Rick Run Good pool at 16.2%

literally everybody else.

You mentioned Oberg, you had a great finish with the Oberg, he's only 2.4% in that.

So this thing is wide open still for the people that use Moore Cowell last week, good

finish, I think it might have been a week early.

We'll get to that in a minute here.

But let's move forward here with getting ready for TPC sawgrass in the players championship.

Before we do, we want to let everybody know if at any point in this video, you find the

information useful.

Do us a small favor, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button, let us know in the

comments who you're picking in your one and done pools for the player's championship.

That stuff really does help us.

It will go a long way just as a small piece of gratitude.

We thank you in advance for that.

It does make a big difference.

We also want to let you know about one of our show sponsors, Novig, a sports prediction

market.

We have a special offer to share with you.

If you sign up using the promo code pool, you can, they've just up this offer for

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So check that out.

And Jason, I know you got a new product out over at pool genius as well for the people

that may not be in season long off one and done pools, but might be in some of these

other pools for just the players championship and major season.

Tell us what you guys just rolled out here this week.

Yeah.

We have our majors and masters product, which covers the four majors, but not only the four

majors, the players championship.

So if you happen to be in a pool, you know, that not only includes the four majors, but

also includes the players in addition to them, or if you're just in a standalone player

championship pool and then play with tears or pickaxe number of golfers, because our

one and done obviously supports, you know, using a golfer once, one golfer per week.

But this is more for like if you're picking several golfers.

And so what what we do, I can I'll pull it up real quick here just to do it because I'll

recognize it looks very similar to our, now I've set up a pool.

It looks very similar to our one and done products on the surface, right?

We have our pool set up and I went through and I set up some tears.

You can actually set up, you play in a pool with your buddies, they assign eight golfers

to tier one, this minute to tier two, whatever the set up is, you can set your customized

tears up.

And what we're going to do is we're going to show you your tears with the golfers separated,

kind of like our data grid, but with very tear specific to your pool, letting you

to focus in on which golfer you want to pick from that group of eight or 10 or whatever

the number is.

It's going to be to organize your picks, see the data and see who we think has pick

percentage in those kind of contest because we also customize those pick estimates to whoever

you tell us is in your group.

So you're going to get a different estimate for Scotty, depending on who's in the tier

with them and so on and so forth.

So that's what our majors and masters does is available now for users for the players

championship and it will be fully available also for the masters and beyond the few play

in a pool that uses all the majors or that picks up at the masters, keep that in mind

as well.

For sure.

And we'll put a link down in the description so you can check it out for yourselves,

check out the pricing for you.

The fact that you have the customized tears is great because when I'm on splash, they're

using certain rankings there and then I'm in with pools with my buddies and they're

just going by straight official world golf rankings, which can be totally different now

with how weird the OWGR is now in the era of live.

So the customization is really solid there for those pools.

It's going to help everybody make smarter decisions for those type of pools.

So we do try to preload the one once we get the splash tears once they set those.

We do try to load those so you don't have to sit manually in or each golfer type of

head.

It's a little type of head feature.

I don't like how you save your golfers and want to done on our product.

But you don't have to do that if it's a certain pool like a splash pool.

It's the same format.

You can just load that to your and that we don't take an extra two minutes to and put

each golfer.

Love it.

Okay.

Let's get to golf one and done for this week at the players championship.

We will begin with our course preview of TPC sawgrass for golf one and done purposes.

The most important thing to know is the purse.

This is a $25 million purse.

It is the largest purse of any event on the PGA tour schedule.

That includes the majors, even though the PGA tour doesn't run those events.

As of right now, as we record this on Monday morning, we have to project this as the biggest

purse and the biggest prize the first place at $4.5 million.

Is there a small chance that come tournament week for the masters or the US open?

Those event organizers have a bigger person this yes, but it hasn't happened in the past

two years.

So most of us and golf one and done are operating under the assumption that this $4.5 million

prize will be the biggest of any event and golf one and done this season.

We are at TPC sawgrass and that famed island green at number 17, 7,352 yards.

It is a par 72.

There are four par fives on this course, still in Florida, still in those Bermuda greens.

The defending champion is Rory McElroy.

The past winners, Scotty Sheffler back to back, Cam Smith, Justin Thomas, Rory McElroy.

I'm stopping right there at 2019 because that is when the players moved from May to the

month of March.

So those have been the winners.

What all those winners have in common?

They've won major championships.

So for whatever reasons, when this event is moved to March, you have to be an elite golfer

who is one majors who likes tough conditions to win this event.

That's how it's played out so far.

Cam Smith when he won hadn't won a major yet, but later that year, he went on to win the

Open Championship and he was in amazing form coming in to that players championship for

that year.

The weather is also very important to keep an eye on throughout this week.

We are recording this video on Monday afternoon.

This is a very early forecast and we're in Florida and if you've been to Florida at any

point, you know, rain can come and go pop up, go away.

It could come right at you.

Split into two like it did at one point during the arm of Palmer last week and not rained

at all on the golf course.

So just keep an eye on this.

It's an early forecast, but possible thunderstorms are in the forecast for late Thursday and potentially

Sunday as well.

Winds are elevated.

The early forecast says between 10 and 20 miles per hour.

From what I saw, there is potentially a wave advantage for the early late guys.

So the early Thursday t times could have a wave advantage getting out there early before

it starts getting windier.

Maybe the storms come in on Thursday.

If there's lightning, they're just going to stop play.

But if the winds get higher on Thursday, after hearing it, at least seems it's possible

that you might want to look at some early guys.

If maybe a tiebreaker, if you're between a couple guys and the other guys are in that

late wave on Thursday, also if you're betting first round leader, I think the early wave

guys are the way to go there for first round leader on Thursday.

So here we go, Jason.

Let's get into the five most popular picks for the fifth major.

And at no surprise, as projected by pole genius, the best player in the world over the last

few years, the favorite to win this event, Scotty Sheffler with a $4.5 million prize

on the line for first place with a guy who won it back to back years over the past three

years.

14% is the projected ownership for Scotty Sheffler.

Are you pulling the trigger or what is your reaction to that percentage of Scotty Sheffler

based on what we've seen so far from him this year?

That number would probably be higher if he had come in in better form, honestly, the

biggest person in a two time winner.

I don't know where to put it as a moving target.

You know, we're trying to project here.

You would think that a fair amount of people will use them just because of the value.

I think that part makes sense, but obviously, you'd like him.

You'd like him to not be, you know, he's coming off a 24th and he hasn't looked good early

internaments for pretty much all year, all calendar year, other than, you know, his only

win this year, but other than that early win over the last several senior events, feels

like he's playing catch up or almost right away.

And so that kind of scares you, but that should maybe hold ownership, but I don't think

it's going to be low low, right?

I don't think there's any chance it's low low.

And so, um, yeah, I'm tempted to want to wait with it if I had one, two or three entries.

I'll have a little Scotty this week because any big money event I want to have some exposure

because he can win it anytime.

And he is the biggest favorite, but you don't feel good about the ways looked lately.

I mean, I would never even think about betting him at four to one odds right now based

on the form we've seen of him.

Um, I'm going to go back to what I've said before, but first for the new viewers out there

that might be watching this week with a big tournament week, some context Jason is providing

analysis and opinion from the perspective of playing in multiple golf, one and done

pools and how he wants to spread his exposure around.

He's never going to put all his golf one and done picks on the same player.

So remember that as you listen to him throughout the show.

For me, I am a golf outright to better.

I've been betting guys to win tournaments for the past five years.

I've been profitable every single year for the past five years.

Just hit Ricky Castillo last week at the Puerto Rico Open.

So I have knowledge of handicap tournaments, but I am loving having Jason here with me

to give me the game theory of pools and ownership and exposure, but I'm ultimately making

a conviction pick at the end of each of these shows for my one pool, the biggest golf

one and done pool in the country.

So that is where we're coming from here when we're talking about these things.

So for me, having one entry and only getting to you Scotty one time all year, I'm not using

them this week.

And I'll tell you why, if you look at what he's done on approach, his iron play, which

is the foundation of golf handicapping in my opinion.

That is what's predictive week to week.

And through the start of the season, he has more events with less than one stroke game

per round on approach than he had for the entire season last year.

Something is off with his approach game.

And if you dig a little bit deeper, if you look at his off the tee numbers, you know, one

of the one of the golf modeling software providers that I use is rabbit hole.

They give me a metric called left tendency.

This is a, this is a course at TPC sawgrass where you really cannot miss left.

There's too many issues.

There are penalty areas.

There are water hazards.

So missing left is a really bad thing at this course.

Scotty's typically great no matter what, right?

When he's been in form, you know, he's best player in the world.

For whatever reason over the last 24 rounds, something's off there, not just with the

irons, but with the left tendency as well.

He's actually ranking outside the top 80 players here in this tournament.

In other words, he's in the bottom half of this field and missing left off the tee in

this for this tournament, which would be a very bad thing at TPC sawgrass.

So the driving accuracy numbers are down.

If you look at last 24 rounds in terms of, you know, this is another great metric over

there, distance from the edge of the fairway.

So when you miss the fairway, are you missing it by a little, are you missing it by a lot?

And Scotty, when he misses the fairway so far this year, is actually missing it by a lot,

you know, bottom half of this field.

So he's been getting away with a lot of good putting ironically because you remember

when he was barely losing events when he before he broke through and went on a tear, it

was the putting that was holding him back.

His putting is actually really good right now.

He heard another great comp from Pat May, the last couple of weeks saying, this reminds

him of when Jordan's speech was racking up some wins with just some voodoo with short

game and chipping and putting around the greens and his irons were a little bit off.

So this is not the same Scotty Sheffler that we've seen over the majority of weeks or

the past couple of years, and it's not just the past one or two weeks.

It's really been a decrease in iron play since the start of the season for every single

week.

He does not have one single week in the 2026 season, even including the hero world challenge

down in the Bahamas.

I mean, not one event where he gained more than a stroke on approach per round.

So I have no reason to use him Jason this week.

I have every reason to wait and see my firm belief that he fixes it fixes it at some

point.

And every week that goes by that I don't use Scotty Sheffler more and more people are

going to use him in these golf wanted dumb pools by my quick math.

I've already seen two events in the biggest pool where 10% have used him by your projection

another 14% might use them.

So we might have more than a quarter of the pool after this week that have not used him

yet.

And plenty of other events this year with $4 million or more on the line where I can still

use Scotty and even if he wins this week, still feel more confident that he's figured

out the irons at this point.

So that was a lot there, but just give me your quick reaction to my conclusion that I'm

not using Scotty even though it is the biggest prize in golf one and done this week.

No, that's, I think there's a lot to think about there because here's the thing, if

he does turn it around and we know he can't, I mean, he could bury you in a pool if you

don't have him, right?

If 4.5, when nobody said a winner, that's going to separate people.

But that being said, you know, you got to take chances to win pools.

You're playing against people.

And I think if you're trying to find angles on Scotty, you probably want him.

If he's not in form, you don't want to play him when he's probably still going to be

10% versus 20% if he was, you want to play him when he's 3% because nobody thinks he

can win that tournament.

He has one in the past and maybe, you know, like the US open when we get all the live

guys in, I'd be more like still 4.2, 4.3 million last year.

I'd be more willing to wait and see if he was ready to win on Father's Day by the summertime.

All by the way, probably less than 10% ownership by then because of, like you said, availability.

And if he's still not in the best form, if he's not Scotty, Shafler, 25 or 24, he's still

Scotty, Shafler, he still can do it.

And you may get good ownership them and get good leverage if he does hit it.

All by the way, the US open this year, this is first shot at try and do a, let me out

the first shot.

US open this year is a chance for Scotty, Shafler to win the career Grand Slam as well.

So keep that in mind.

Okay.

Number two on the popularity list for the players championship is projected by Paul Genius.

Colin Moorakawa, you have him slightly behind Scotty, Shafler at 13%.

He has been the bet of the week in the betting world.

His number has steadily come down.

I bet a futures on Moorakawa at 32 to one always felt he was a great fit on this course.

He's modeling extremely well for me and kind of my mixed conditions model.

We're looking at a lot of different things that we talked about before with Scotty, you

know, distance from the edge of the fairway, hitting T shots with high water danger, not

missing left on this course.

It went Scotty, Rory Moorakawa.

So Moorakawa is right there based on the recent form.

And I don't see any reason why he's a fade this week.

The popularity is high and that's what we're going to have to consider with Moorakawa.

Yeah, and it wouldn't surprise me if he actually ended up most popular in like Rick Rungard.

It wouldn't surprise me at all either.

I agree.

It wouldn't surprise me because of what you laid out and people coming off.

And not only because you notice I'm projecting of a Rory already.

I think there will be a little hesitation on Rory after withdrawal.

I think otherwise Rory would have probably been my most popular projection.

But I do anticipate a little market hesitation there, at least with enough people in one

done, it's going to hold Rory closer to that 10% number and not get much higher.

And I think Moorakawa is going to be the beneficiary of getting more picks as a result.

So I agree with you.

And again, we're recording this on Monday afternoon.

And I think there's a very good chance if we get good reports or Rory has this press conference

this week or an interview somewhere and says, yeah, I'm totally fine.

I feel great.

It was more precautionary than anything.

He didn't say in his statement for what it's worth that he pulled the muscle on his back

or anything.

He said back spasms, which can kind of come and go.

So, but I was shocked to see that he's already up to 15 to one at one sports book.

That would just, that would have blown my mind a couple of weeks ago for him to be 15 to

one at the players, considering he's won here twice in March.

And Scotty Sheffler is not in great form.

So I actually think if you're just telling me to handicap the tournament, I actually,

if healthy, would make Rory the favorite here.

So Jason, you're projecting Rory at 9% tied with Ludwig Oberg for a third here in terms

of popularity.

But I think if we get a good report on Rory, then this percentage probably goes up as well.

Wouldn't you think?

Yeah, I mean, I think it depends on how it's turning.

I think there's always some caution.

Some people just be like, he just withdrew.

I don't trust what's going to come out.

He's going to try to play.

He's going to say good things.

But do you trust that it doesn't flare up again within a span of a week, right?

Whatever caused him to have that reaction.

Now, what we don't know is exactly how severe it was, like you said, where was he on the

leaderboard entering Saturday?

Yeah.

It's a good point.

I'm glad you brought this up.

So it was Saturday.

He was way behind.

I think it was double digit strokes behind burger.

So this could have very easily been just like, I already got my guarantee paycheck.

I'm Rory McRory.

I have a ton of money already.

I'm not in contention.

So let's just take it easy and get ready for next week where I'm the defending champion.

I've won there twice.

And let's see.

So that's why I want to wait and see.

Like there's a very good chance that this was extremely precautionary, not that big of

a deal.

How they say he could have played through it if he had to, right?

Like, maybe we don't know.

We don't know.

Or if it's back spasms, like, you know, I've had, I'm 39 years old.

I'm already getting back spasms, like in two days later, I'm back on the golf course,

you know?

So I just, to me, that's what what I call, oh, it's the six hole.

Mm-hmm.

Or it's flare up again.

Yeah, right when you get the medication, the bushlight out and see if we can get through

the round.

Yeah.

I shot 72 today.

It just happened to be on 14 holes.

Sorry.

All right.

So let's see about Rory, right?

I think you all need to just monitor the news with him and see what's going on.

You know, if it's severe, he's just going to withdraw.

That's the thing, right?

And then probably if he does withdraw, you just hope it's before Thursdays, he often

that your pool either lets you know, or you can switch or you have an alternate, some

pools allow that alternate pick, yeah, preset.

So mention Oberg, he's in amazing form, multiple events in a row where he's gained an every

category off the tee approach around the green pudding.

You used them last week in some of your pools.

I don't care that he missed a cut here last year.

He was top 10 the year before that.

He's just when he's not in California, apparently, just one of the best players on the PGA tour

and one of the most well-rounded.

And my God, I looked at his driving numbers from last week, elite in both distance and

accuracy, which could be a huge weapon here with so much water on this course.

If he's got short irons, or if he's got wedges into these greens where a lot of guys are

laying back because they're worried about the water, it's, it's, Oberg's another great

candidate this week.

I really do think so.

So lastly, see who Kim at 8% Jason.

I mentioned him a couple of weeks ago as a potential dark horse here.

I can't, I can't go away from that now.

I still think he's a dark horse, but 8% is interesting if he's going to be down here,

not in the top four in terms of popularity.

Mention Moore Cowell was third in that mixed conditions model I did.

See who was fourth.

And literally the only knock I have of him.

The reason he rose that high is because I don't put much weight on putting it all.

I literally put like 1% on putting just to see it, to see how a guy is doing with this

putting on Bermuda, see who can't put anywhere.

And it hasn't really changed.

So I do think if the conditions are tougher, like if you look at the final scores of the

players' championships since it's moved to March, there are years where Scotty is one

at 20 under when there's no wind on the course.

And then there's other years where Rory's one at 12 under where it has been a little

bit windy throughout the tournament and it makes it suffer conditions.

So I think if it is windy this week, it's harder to score.

Well, then that's the condition See who Kim needs to contend this week.

Otherwise, I think this is still a course where you need to make enough birdies.

And that's just hard for See who to do with how broken his putting is still.

Yeah, we can talk about See who and my projection to like, I'm doing it based on A, he's been

in great form.

As you know, like this is why you target them.

He's up to seventh and our overall go for eight years for overall last 150 rounds.

So he's in the mix to be a guy now you want to use of the big event.

He's got decent course history here.

I know I know the win at like you said, came in May, but he's in good form that he's been

used in pools.

So as a leverage play makes sense, if you're playing a segment or somebody's used them

and got a third or, you know, some of his good finishes early in the year, I don't think

he'll get steamed up, but I think he's going to come in and had a zander.

I think he's going to come and had a Fleetwood who did not look good last week.

So I think even though Fleetwood may have slightly lower odds of the betting market, I think

See who will be the choice between Zander, Fleetwood and him, I think, and maybe Cam Young.

And I think because of Cam Young, Cam Young's not played well here for four years and

so I wonder if that'll scare some people off.

I think Cam Young's probably a good pick.

We'll get to him.

But I think that will scare some people off.

And so I see of that group, I think it's more likely that See who draws more picks than

the others.

Not just as in the individual head to head, who do I think is more likely to get a few

more picks?

I think it's probably see with him.

I mentioned in terms of the betting odds board, Moore Cala has been the favorite of

the sharps this week.

He was available in the 30s last week or maybe two weeks ago.

And now I'm seeing as short as 18 to 1 on Moore Cala, See who Kim is the other guy that's

getting steamed.

I mean, he was high 30s, close to 40 to 1 for a few weeks for this tournament.

And now I'm seeing between 18 and 25 to 1 depending on where you look for betting

odds.

So there is definitely interest in See who Kim this week.

He is above Tommy Fleetwood and some of these sports books with early betting open here

on Monday.

So that's very interesting as well if that's going to translate the golf one and done in

his popularity.

So, okay, let's pull up the data grid here, Jason.

And we won't spend a ton of time on the betting favorites because we just talked about

them.

You know, with such a big pool and such a lot of money on the line here with $4.5 million

going to first, it's no surprise that some of the most popular picks are the favorites

for this week.

So, Scottie's the favorite, Rory's second choice, Colomor Cala's third choice, and then

you can see everybody else at 22 to 1 or longer there.

So let's, you know, people want to go into the data grid and see those odds they can.

I think we should just move right along here to the top golfers by course history.

Now, this is a week where I want to caveat that because a lot of players play in the

players every year.

So there's some guys here like Danny Walker, who if you click on him, you're only going

to see four rounds.

So I filtered this a little bit just on my own.

So the top golfers by course history with a minimum of eight rounds played at TPC Sawgrass

are Scotty Sheffler, then Hadecki Matsuyama, and Tommy Fleetwood.

So, all these other guys you might see in between there don't have eight minimum rounds

at TPC Sawgrass.

Oxe played two years in a row, but missed the cut his first start and then had the third

place last year.

So he's at six rounds.

And I'm going to be honest with you, Oxe was, go ahead, no, you know, you make your point

because I think you're going to talk about maybe his putting, but we'll see.

Yeah, you're, you and I think alike, sir, you and I think alike.

So I actually was on my card for this week before he won at the Arnold Palmer.

And then I dug a little bit more into just how he won at the API and it was a lot of

putting.

It was like off the charts putting.

He didn't even, he lost on an off the tee.

He didn't even have one stroke gained on approach per round.

To me, the API this year was the course got baked out and it became very random on the

weekend.

Nobody could hold greens on approach for that tournament.

So Oxe just made putts and he wound up winning and hats off till we're going to see, I have

a question for you.

We're going to get off topic.

Slightly.

Yeah.

So people start to really get on and critique Oxe and the anchoring that is the ointment

of contention.

If this were basketball, you'd be pointing out to the rough.

You'd be like, hey, watch this guy.

Watch this next putt, right?

Because it sure seems like he's pushing the, and then when he goes out and has like some

of the best putting performance that we've seen in wins the tournament, you just wonder,

if this were any other sport, the other, the guys on the other side would be like working

the rafts right now.

So you think he is anchoring, I mean, have you seen others hanging out there very close?

I mean, it's, it's interesting.

It's a question.

I hadn't looked close enough.

I'm going to start looking now for sure.

No.

Um, I'll tell you this, I'm not betting on them to win back to back, but even though his

ball striking wasn't as good this week.

He's had really good ball striking weeks this year, so it's kind of ironic that he won

last week and didn't win at Pebble Beach or didn't win at Phoenix, where his ball striking

was amazing.

That's golf sometimes.

He actually gained across the board at Pebble Beach, finished T6.

So I actually always thought he's a great fit for the Masters.

So I moved my bet for this week on him, cashed it out, and put it to the Masters.

You know, and he's a lefty.

Lefty's new grade at the Masters.

Yeah.

I mean, Mike, we're just continually showed up and, but if he's anchoring, Augusta National

is going to let us know.

That's for sure.

I will say that, though, buddy.

So in terms of the course history here, like he would have been a good fit for me this

week.

Maybe he's a dark horse for the players.

I'm skipping him this week because he already won last week.

You know, he's peaked.

He just won four million dollars.

So again, this is a big purse, but I'm anchored in ball striking and he's, he's regressed

a little bit in that, in that area from last week to the previous weeks before that.

Hadecki Matsuyama, you know, if you look at Stroke's gain TPC sawgrass over the years,

he's, he's amazing, right?

He's sitting here number two, minimum eight rounds.

He's been great, but I just have to go back to what my concern has been all year with

Matsuyama.

And it's just been a couple of things.

Number one, the accuracy off the tee has gotten a little bit better, but it's still not

elite, like you typically like to see for TPC sawgrass.

And now the approach game has regressed as well.

This is back-to-back events where he is lost on approach at the Genesis and the Arnold

Palmer versus just the lights out iron play we saw at Phoenix, for example, at the WM

Phoenix Open.

So all those two things put together has me off Matsuyama this week.

And he's also on the wrong side of the wave for Thursday from what I saw with the tee

time it came out.

So he's got a late tee time on Thursday, which I'm trying to stay away from if I can this

week, other than the futures I've already bet.

So kind of off Hadecki for that reason, don't know if you have a strong opinion there.

No, I think that, I mean, what you laid out, we've been talking about, he's definitely

going to, I think, draw some interest here and draw some popularity.

So I mean, I was a complete fade of whom I think at the most, I mean, I don't think I've

had him in any of the most recent Cedric driven since Phoenix, and it hasn't really cost

me yet.

So probably let that ride.

I have a spot where I'm thinking about maybe using Matsuyama if he gets back in form,

right?

It's the Masters where him off his scatter off the tee isn't going to

matter as much because those are some of the widest fairways of any course on the

tour all year.

So he's one of the Masters before.

So keep it an eye out for maybe Hadecki as a dark horse at the Masters.

We'll see.

I just pulled up because you mentioned the tee times I didn't know they were out.

I guess they were released here in the last hour.

Yes, sir.

They were.

Yep.

So just trying to look at you.

So check.

I won't bore you with the full list, but Scotty has an early G8 work communications

on X.

We'll have it.

We'll have it up by now by the time you're watching this.

You'll be able to look at who is in that morning wave that's the notable names.

I'll just mention in the morning wave Scotty Schaeffler and then there's an awesome group

that's surely going to be featured on the ESPN plus coverage column or a cow a Ludwig

Oberg and see who Kimmer in the same group.

Okay.

So we just isolated the guys we want to pick from and you said there are you you like

the morning wave and now they're in it.

So.

Okay.

So and then the afternoon wave came youngs in the afternoon wave, um, Xander and Rory

and Hadecki are in the afternoon wave Chris got her up.

Minimum Lee are in the afternoon wave.

So it's again, early forecast.

Let's just see, uh, but be sure to check that forecast closer to to Thursday, uh, Thursday

locks.

So.

Okay.

Tommy Fleet was the other guy here in terms of course history, minimum eight rounds use

number three minimum eight rounds.

Same issue I have with Hadecki.

These irons have cooled off.

He has not been as consistent as we typically like to see with Tommy Fleetwood, uh, his approach

play last two weeks lost to the field in both events, which is very unlike Tommy Fleetwood.

So and this is not the course to get right with your irons, um, and just all the sudden

peak and win.

So, uh, I would like to see Tommy Fleetwood get back into a little bit better form here,

especially considering this is a guy who has never won a major and the winners since this

has gone to March or all major champions, uh, and the only event he's won on US soil

was the 30 man field for the tour championship.

So I'm off Tommy Fleetwood, Jason.

Sounds good.

I'm looking on here, by the way, Tom Hoguey, third place and two of the last three years,

the year he didn't, it was Harman, who's, who's this year's Hoguey Harman Memorial?

Dude, the jumps up and finishes top three, uh, this year, we'll get to your long shots.

I'll, I'll let you save that.

Probably, no, I like, no, I like, I like it.

It's, there are certain guys here that just like live near this course and play it all

the time.

Hoguey's one of them.

He has the course record at this, at this, uh, event that he shot a 62, maybe a 61, um,

so there are some guys there for sure.

We're going to talk about that in long shots, but there, this is a good week to maybe,

you know, spread around a couple of top 20s here.

I'm not saying use them in one and done, but to your point, you, you, or maybe looking

for that segment win and maybe finding a guy who's not picked by anybody else.

I have a, a couple of different long shots for you to talk about this week, um, when

we get down there.

And so let's go to recent form, Jason.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Um, Kalamore Kawa, no surprise, talk about how popular he's going to be.

And for good reason, I do think it's justified, uh, mentioned he was third in my modeling

for this week with the mixed conditions.

Um, he doesn't model as well when I do last 50 rounds for obvious reasons.

He was in a slump for two years.

So, you know, I don't care as much about that.

You know, this is a guy who's won multiple majors.

Uh, he's won multiple signature events throughout his career.

So this is justified, in my opinion, for him to be one of the, one of the most popular

moving up to the third favorite on the odds board and his recent form is a big reason

for that.

Uh, actually, Betia, we've already talked about Rory McElroy is number three.

His ball striking has been phenomenal, Rory for the most part to start the year.

It goes back to when he played in Europe and the swing season, um, in the Middle East

as well and Dubai and whatnot.

So I'll just summarize Rory with this.

If indications are he's healthy, that's who I would pick this week and one and done because

the weather is also a factor in this.

I know he's on the wrong side of the wave advantage, but like Rory won in conditions like

this his entire life.

He's from Northern Ireland.

He knows how to, you know, choke down on a bigger iron and and not try to muscle something

into wind.

So he's, he's a fantastic wind player.

He won Pebble Beach in those type of conditions last year.

So if indications are he's healthy, I would use Rory this week and not think anything about

it and hope he's not the most popular.

So we just got to wait on reports on him that we don't have that right now as we record

this on Monday afternoon.

I don't know how if you feel as strongly about Rory or if you're going to go lower popularity

hunting, Jason.

I mean, yeah, it depends on the the entry and if it's not the one with the segment interest

but probably for full season, definitely will be looking now.

One guy we don't, we haven't talked about yet.

There's a couple guys on here, Jake nap with Drew.

So as you can see, he hasn't played in the last two weeks with us because he withdrew

right before the Arnold.

The fact people had used him in one and done that would draw didn't come out till the

tournament.

It started.

Yeah.

A lot of one and done said locked, but he did withdraw before his tea time.

How tongue Lee jumped into that spot was able to get in the tournament, but too late if

you were, if you didn't have a pool that allowed you to swap an alternate in because we didn't

know until, you know, the morning was underway.

Even disclosed illness is how they described it.

I think nap would have been on my short list of guys to consider at lower ownership here.

Recent form played well here last year, can hit it if he's driving well.

But when I hear undisclosed illness, that does concern me.

We saw Oberg struggle with that for a few weeks, you know, what, what condition is he

going to be in?

We don't know, I think.

So that puts him down here, but nap has been hot up until that point.

And then the other guy, hey, it's, it's also weird to see Schuffler not in the top five

in this category at any point.

Yeah.

But he's down there around nine.

So he's still hanging on, but that's a lower number than we're used to seeing on Scotty.

But you had your guy Ricky Castillo, who got the win and yelled that last week.

So congratulations.

If you played that Puerto Rico, open one of them.

Yes, sir.

And then we see Adam Scott and then my guy, Oberg and Cam Young are coming in here.

At the top of the list.

So decent form up top.

Colin is definitely leading the way.

And Rory is, you know, playing, playing solidly last week, even before he withdrew.

So yeah, he's on the list.

If we get an all clear on Rory, I think he's got to be like the top, along with Moracal

with the top of our, our own guy to consider.

I agree.

All right.

Before we get into our top three, our favorite long shot in our conviction picks.

It is March.

That means college basketball.

That means brackets Jason.

We talked about it last week for those that didn't hear it.

Let the people know what is coming from pool genius for college basketball and bracket

season.

The foundation of pool genius, the genesis of pool genius when, when you guys all started

out.

Yeah.

I mean, we've got our selection Sunday is corresponding.

You'll be the players final round.

They'll be finishing up as we find out the brackets will be working nonstop.

I'll probably work all night Saturday and Sunday.

I am researching the teams now.

We have bracket simulations.

We have a bracket product.

You tell us your rules.

You tell us how big it is.

We give you our customized pick advice for your bracket, customize your rule.

You do a lot of research behind the scenes.

That's what I'm working on.

I was handicapping all the tournaments today, but this week in the conference tournaments,

because that carries forward, I mean, I get my assessment of the teams.

Do they match my assessment as they go through conference turning week?

You know, last, last year, Florida.

I had them as the best team in the SEC.

They were not priced that way.

I hit that future.

The problem is the cat was out of the bag by selection Sunday and everybody was on board

Florida as a national champ and they along with Duke were the two of the chalkiest picks

out there and then they won the title.

But yeah, the week before I had Florida, people were talking Auburn.

They were talking this.

I said Florida is the best team in the SEC since December.

So that's kind of research I'm doing, who are my sleepers.

UCLA A might be one by the way.

So check in not to win a national title, but a team out of that seven, eight, nine, ten

range.

I think UCLA looks more like they could be at top.

20 type king like they were expected to be in the preseason.

Now that they have all their key players back together, they have to roll it.

So that's just a little piece.

And I want to give my testimonial to your bracket products as well because I've used

them in the past and I think they're fantastic.

So anybody that tells you that they're going to guarantee that you're going to, they're

going to help you when you're pulled like run the other direction.

That's, that's not a thing that is kind of slimy marketing for anybody that's talking

with that much definitive conviction.

What Jason and his products do, they help you make better decisions with your brackets.

And they increase your margin for error when it comes to getting through your bracket

to hopefully have a sweat when it comes to the final four.

I'll give a perfect example of that.

So there was a recent year when I filled out a bracket and I used Jason's tools over

at pool genius.

And by the time the lead eight came around and the final four came around, I was only

in like 50th place out of 300 people.

But because I use Jason and his team's projections on popularity to help figure out, okay, who's

going to give me the biggest opportunity to move up to the top of my standings once we

get to the final four where it's, you know, five, six, 10 times the points in your pools

for those situations.

You can still make up that ground if you avoid the most popular teams in the bracket

that year.

And they can give you leverage in a 50 50 game, maybe or a game that's only a two or

three point spread.

You get that leverage.

Jason and his team helps find that information for you.

So even if you don't go into the final four in the top three in your pool, you are still

very live to maybe cash or even take down the whole pool because you're making smarter

decisions based on leverage and popularity.

So hat tip to you and your team on that, Jason.

I appreciate it.

Definitely doesn't all work out.

I remember Auburn from two years ago.

They cost me a few brackets, Chad Baker, Missouri and now in the news again for those got kicked

out of that Yale game.

That was fun.

But, you know, like you said, we give customized advice to your specific pool.

It's not like we told everybody to pick Yukon to win the national championship in the year

they were the foreseed and the final four got blown up and it was a nine and two fives

in Yukon.

But we did tell 15% of our subscribers based on their pool size and their scoring roles,

15% of them got Yukon.

The public picked Yukon at 2%.

And so we, they were our best team besides the top couple of seeds, besides the top favorites,

Yukon was our leverage play and we, we recommend them a lot and larger pools.

And so even in that case, it wasn't the small pools and the conservative picks that won

that year.

It was the foreseed when in the national title, you didn't have to even get the rest of

the final four right and a crazy year.

You just had to have Yukon.

And if you did, you cashed.

And so that those are the kind of things that we try to work on.

We also have survivor pools.

We're going to have upgraded tools this year for that.

So if you are in C.A. survivor pools, we will have that, check that out and I'll be doing

lots of content.

My fake bracket reveal came out yesterday, go check it out, talk through who I project.

Usually, I'm going to be pretty accurate with just one week to go.

Just your only three teams where I was one seed line off.

One was your Louisville Cardinals there, but everybody thought they got a little underseated.

But yeah, my bracket one week out was within a seed line and directly on seed line for

most teams with one week to play.

So check that out.

Joe Ladardi's been around forever.

Jason's got the fresh takes.

Jason's got the bracket.

Well, I mean, I've been on the bracket matrix for over a decade.

I've been doing, I've been doing brackets since high school.

But yeah, I mean, I'm not exactly, you know, my kids call me on.

So I'm not exactly young, but all right, I love it, man.

I can't wait.

And literally two of the best, the two best times of year to subscribe to pool genius before

NFL season.

And right now, before the players in March madness, it's the best time to do it.

So be sure to go check out the products for that.

I guess we should tell people this next week.

Steve was doing it solo because I'm going to be so busy on Tuesday, coming off selection

Sunday and it being our busiest time that I'm going to let Stephen go solo on the Valspar.

So you guys give him all the grief you want.

He is driving the boat next week and I will join you in two weeks.

So good luck next week and join Stephen for the Valspar.

I may send in my picks, I'll try to find time to email, but I will not be on the video.

But yeah, Stephen's got you next week.

I'll be doing all the basketball stuff next week.

I love it.

I love it.

All right, let's get into our top three for the players championship.

Jason's top three, my top three for golf, one and done pools.

Jason, I'm going to go first this week and I'm going to just reiterate it again.

If we get good reporting on Rory McElroy and this WD from Saturday at the API, it was just

precautionary and he's totally fine.

Rory's to pick this week.

He not only is an amazing form.

He's won here twice, Grand Slam winner.

You have to be a major champion.

It seems since this tournament has moved the march to win this tournament.

So if you have Rory available, this is the spot to use him, I think, especially when potentially

as Jason has pointed out in his projections that Scotty might actually be more popular,

more a cow of might be more popular as well.

So this is a great spot for Rory.

If people are too afraid to use him and we get good reporting on his back spasms that

happened last week.

So it's very possible that he was just out of contention, didn't feel like playing

and said, peace, I'll see you at Sawgrass.

So we'll see about that.

So keep that in mind.

However, I have one entry already used Rory.

So here's my top three for my actual entry with the caveat that if you have Rory, just

use him if we get good reporting.

So, or if we don't get good reporting, then use this top three.

Kalamore, Kalah has to be top of the list.

And it's not, in my opinion, Jason, you tell me if I'm wrong, it's not criminal ownership,

right?

Like if it sticks around this 15%, it seems that that's not the worst thing in the world,

right?

Based on what you've seen and golf won and dumb pulls in the past.

No, because if you think he's gonna, you got to pick who you think and win it, right?

Who can win it?

Because if the guy that can win it is 10% plus owned, and he does win it, that's gonna

be a huge difference here.

When we look back at the end of the year, if there's a 10% plus winner in this tournament,

they're gonna have a high win rate on caching in pools, just just from it in the 4.5.

So if you think that's your best choice, they would not scare me away.

30%.

Yeah, I'd probably want to fade with somebody I thought was close.

10%, 15%, no, I'm not scared of that early.

Now, we'll talk about segment pools when I get to my picks, but I think that's different

if you think you're in contention for a segment, and you can win more money by being a little

more unique, you maybe think about that, but if you're playing for the season long, I think

you don't worry about a 15% number.

Okay, I love it.

So if I had Rory, I'd use him.

I think he should be the most popular if he's healthy.

I think he's the best candidate.

I don't have him.

I might use Kalamora Kawa.

Next up on my list is Siwu Kim.

Kind of hinted at it for a couple of weeks here.

I think his ball striking has been fantastic form.

The first thing I care about when it comes to the players and saw grasses, you gotta get

it off the tee.

You gotta avoid the water off the tee here.

And I have every confidence that Siwu is on a very short list of the elite guys that

will at least find the fairways here at Sawgrass and give us a chance before the ball is

even ready and ready to go for the second shot.

So he can't put, he's a terrible putter.

If the winds blow, it might not hurt him as much.

It might be a lower scoring winner here.

Maybe we get a 10 or 11 or 12 under par winner here, which would put Siwu Kim in the mix.

If it winds up being a 1920 under par winner, he's probably not going to win.

But this is also an extremely volatile event.

Guys, when this guy has missed Rory, has won it and missed the cut.

So this is the event where course history is maybe one of the least predictive all year.

So because of that volatile nature, having a guy like Siwu Kim with a high floor and such

a big purse, maybe valuable to you if you think of it that way and then the way you want

to choose your one and done guys.

So mention the mixed conditions model I did, a lot of it was last 24 rounds and looking

at water hazards and how far you're missing fairways.

It went Scotty, Rory, Moorakawa, Siwu.

So those are the top four.

So Siwu makes a lot of sense here.

The third guy I'm kind of going a little off the charts here.

I can't use this guy either.

I already used him.

I had him at Phoenix.

It's Chris Gotter up and we talked about this a couple of times, Jason.

If it's going to be windy, you need to put Chris Gotter up on your short list because

there's a lot of guys on this tour who are great players and then it gets windy and

they just melt like they don't know how to handle it.

It's just not a good situation for them.

Chris Gotter up is not that.

It was windy and Hawaii.

He won.

It was windy at Pebble.

He played fine.

It was windy at the open championship in the Scottish Open last year.

He had a T3 and he hoisted the Scottish Open trophy.

So the wind looks up this week.

If that's the case, then Chris Gotter up has to be on my short list.

He is still driving the ball and hitting his irons quite well.

He gained across the board at the Arnold Palmer.

I don't care about a bad Sunday for him.

He was in contention at the Arnold Palmer and basically hit the eject button.

That was a very borderline, unplayable course on Sunday.

Nobody was able to hold greens with their irons shots whatsoever.

So I would have no issue going right back to Gotter up.

I use them.

I can't play them.

But he would be kind of like the dark horse that I think has every chance to win this

week.

Especially if it's going to be windy like the early forecast says Jason.

So that's my top three.

I know you're looking kind of a little off the board here.

Maybe some some segment winners, some unique picks in your pools to take my top three.

My top three would be very similar to yours.

I mean, I don't want to over rehash it too much.

You went through them.

I would have a roughly similar order.

I'm going to use some Scotty just because I have enough entries to sprinkle and I will

definitely use Rory.

I would add Menmoo Lee as probably being a guy I might double up on just based on form

and how he's looked over this year as kind of a guy I don't think will have high ownership.

He's not going to be like super unique though.

He might be like two percent.

He might want to be one of these two or three percent guys.

And so Menmoo is probably in the mix for me as a semi-contrarian play model top and

for me, by the way.

Top 10 in my model.

Top 10 in my model.

Top 10 in my model.

Top 10 in my model.

Top 10 in my model.

Two in play and more Kawah and some Rory.

So I agree with those.

I'm not going to reveal my pick.

We talked about it.

The segment and Rick Rungood comes to an end.

You've got an entry in the 140s.

I'm in around 240 with my entry that over last week.

That entry, by the way, had like 30,000 after the first three weeks and then hit Gotter

up.

So I've used Gotter up.

I can't use him.

And it had Obergan.

It had a camion.

I think top five.

So it's gotten up there a little bit.

And so as I sit here and think about it, I'm within four million a first.

I'm within three million a second.

It's 4.5 million.

How much do I want to just play it conservatively and pick a good golfer in my top five that

we talked about versus how much do I want to roll it on a guy I think sub one person owned

because I think that's what I got to do to have a chance to finish top 10.

But then if I can hit a winner somehow, if I hit the next oxay or bridgeman, Jacob

Bridgeman, yeah.

Right.

Then, then, but it's a longer shot.

So I'm thinking about it because as I look about it, I don't know.

I would don't want to commit because I don't want people copying me in the head of me

in this pool.

Right.

But I even think guys like soccer are going to be over one percent.

So I'm trying to figure out where that cut line is.

And I'm like, I might have to decide.

Do I want to dip down to like the Adam Scots and the bridgemans in that type or do I just

want to go with a good golfer?

And that's the choice that I think you have to make in these segment pools.

It's a tough one because of the nature of how we've started.

The first place hasn't separated all that much yet.

A lot of people, like, there's probably like 400 like me, right, in this contest that

could conceivably hit the winner and if it's unique enough, shoot from 400 to top 10,

just like that.

And so that's in place.

So it's something we all have to weigh.

And I've got a way.

I'm considering unique with that one and more chalky with my one that's actually more

like a thousand.

So it's not going to win the segment.

And maybe if I hit, if I go safe, good golfer, top five type golfer, then that one moves

up past the other one.

And that's fine too.

So that's kind of how I'm thinking about the way.

All right.

Let's get to our favorite long shots.

Am I stealing your guy with Jake nap before I go first?

No, I like nap.

I mean, I was like I said, I was concerned about the, just the illness and whether we, that

wasn't your guy, right?

No.

All right.

So let me make the case for Jake nap.

So I want to move the goal post a little bit for long shot this week.

For this week, it just has to be a guy who's not top 10 on the odds board because this

is an event where the class of the tour tends to win.

So we talked about the past winner since the tournament moved to March.

You know, you don't want to go too crazy here and trying to find a winner.

There are guys that can emerge into the top five here.

Like I had Brian Harman a couple of years ago at 100 to 1 and he was one put away from

winning it.

It's certainly possible.

But if we're, if we're trying to have the ultimate ceiling of having a guy who you think

still has some win equity here, Jake nap is very interesting to me.

And if it, if it was a WD because of an injury last week, no way.

I would be mentioning him right now.

No way because it was an illness and he took the whole week off.

That makes me more optimistic that he's a young guy.

He can get well soon and be just fine for the following week and play well.

So I'll at least caveat this pick with like Rory McElroy, check the reporting that's available.

See if there's a clean bill of health.

If he's back to his normal self out there.

If so, Jake nap is a green light for me in terms of long shots here.

He has been one of the best on tour and Stroke's game total to start this year.

If you look at his last four events, top 10 in every single one of them.

Two of those events, the AT&T Pebble Beach program and the WM Phoenix.

Open, he's gaining across the board.

He's not the old Jake nap where it's just bomb it as far as you can.

Doesn't matter where it goes and you'll gouge it out of there.

He does have accuracy with his driver now that we've seen that we haven't seen so far in this career.

And he has added career best approach play as well.

Two of his last three events, he gained more than a stroke on approach per round.

The Genesis, he actually was closer to about five strokes gain total on approach for that event.

So Jake nap, to me, he's still available at around 50 to one for the players championship.

He is on my outright betting card for this week.

And hopefully we just get that confirmation that it was just a minor illness.

And he's good to go for this week.

Sounds good. I like that pick.

I don't even know who I, hey, I don't want to reveal who I might take.

Yeah, don't reveal your guy.

I mentioned Strakka.

I probably won't take him because I do think he'll be over one percent, but he won't be two percent, three percent.

Strakka would be on my short list of guys outside how you described to contend.

But yeah, I think that's where I stand.

And we are almost to an hour here.

Man, we've done it again.

Any final words for our audience before they get you next week for the Valsper.

Now my conviction plays the Colomore Calla.

It all lines up for that.

And the most important thing to me is not popularity this week.

It's getting $4.5 million.

So I agree with you on that.

I will go with Colomore Calla and just hope that he's not 20% owned in my pool.

How about you?

Yeah, it's more car or sea blue for me.

And I'll probably use them both equally on a fair number of entries.

And I'll just for the third time reiterate, even though more cow is my conviction play,

if you have Rory available and he's getting a clean bill of health, that would be the guy

for me.

So just just know that.

All right, everybody.

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Let us know in the comments who you are picking this week in your players championship golf

one and done pools.

Thank you so much for watching for Jason Lisk.

I'm Steven Andress, best of luck with the players championship.