The Shallows EP 006 - Pitcher Previews w/ Kyle Bland

Hey, everybody, welcome aboard the shallows, the pod design specifically for all you 10 team and small league managers out there alongside chief mate Carson Picard.

I'm your captain Eric Henryson and joining the crew as honorary first mate for the day is a very special guest.

He is the director of analytics and research here at Pitralist and co host of the approach angle on the Pitralist podcast network.

And he's also affectionately known as big dog.

Welcome aboard Kyle, bland Kyle. Welcome to the show.

Hey guys, happy to be here. I'm excited to be on so happy to have you here.

And before we get underway, we here at Pitralist have something awesome for you.

Our live draft assistant is fully updated and we've completely overhauled it for your drafts.

Think of it as having a personal scout and analyst and a master strategist sitting right next to you as your draft.

Or you can just imagine it's Kyle sitting right next to you as your draft.

Kyle, why don't you tell us about the live draft assistant.

Yeah, so I tell all my friends.

I'm like, if you want to know what I'm doing in our drafts, just subscribe to Pitralist.

All of my tools are exactly just how I think out there.

But so what we provide with our live draft assistant is we generate our Pitralist PLV projections.

And that's for every player we have utilized our pitch level model for pitchers.

And we utilize our process plus hitter stats for hitters along with our other stats to give some of the most.

I think interesting projections, a lot of fun flag plant guys.

And so those get folded into a draft assistant tool that follows you along that you can enter your picks.

You'll see live standings.

You'll see all of this good stuff for you to maximize kind of the value as that you can make your draft the best it can be.

Yeah, it's really awesome.

It's an awesome tool.

Kyle was kind of responsible for building it too, which is really awesome.

Like he said, his draft strategy is his tools.

So log on to Pitralist, get a subscription.

You can dominate your drafts with our live draft assistant, use promo code podcast LDA 15.

That's podcast LDA 15.

Oh, and don't forget to follow the new PL stats account at Pitralist PLV.

Also responsible for that.

That's right, Kyle.

Yeah, that's been a lot of fun, especially we've got it up for spring training with baseball classic.

And it'll be another regular season just following along how every pitcher is doing that day.

A lot of our kind of internal metrics, a lot of stuff that like Nick looks at when he's analyzing a pitcher in a nice easy to read clean interface that presents a lot of fun information at a glance.

It's a really fun account to follow if you aren't doing that yet.

So on Twitter, it's at Pitralist PLV on today's show.

We've got the captain's report.

We're checking in on spring training and the results of the WBC.

We have our position previews.

We're up to starting pitchers and relief pitchers.

It's the last two positions we have.

And then we have the return of from the crew where we have accumulated your questions over the last few weeks that we're going to answer right here on the pod.

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We'll be right back with the captain's report.

So stay tuned.

Kyle will stain with us the whole show.

Stay tuned.

Welcome back to the shallows.

We are here with the captain's report.

First, we're going to talk about the WBC results.

It's over Venezuela beat the US three to in a mostly boring game, I suppose it got really exciting in the a fitting, right?

I just, you know, forgetting the result, what do you guys think?

I wanted to ask you about this maybe being like a mid season tournament, like around the all star break.

Maybe have the all star game and then have the WBC right after.

What do you guys think about that?

I think one of the things is like it's really frustrating with to have pictures concerned about ramping up for the regular season.

I don't know.

I was thinking about this a lot last night.

I don't know if that issue is going to be solved by putting it in the middle of the season because yes,

they're already stretched out, but then teams in a playoff position are going to make sure they absolutely want to minimize their injury risk going into the year.

Imagine last year if an already exhausted Dodgers rotation had to send Yamamoto out to pitch for team Japan, right?

I mean, they're going to be really alarmed by that.

And while the all star break is really nice because it's basically break for the players, they might throw one inning.

It would be, it would be a bit of an issue from a pitcher maintenance side.

I think it would be better for the overall attitude.

I think we might see though it become something where pitchers or teams are actually more reserved with their allowances to have players play.

And also players were really pending for agency.

If you have a hot first half and your stocks are way up, absolutely, you're not jeopardizing that in any way.

And like with school ball, there was risk about him being in a contract year and, you know, he's obviously going to make a bajillion dollars.

But if he gets hurt in the world baseball classic, it's a huge issue.

If imagine if it was in four months from now, he has a 1.6 year, you think he's touching for team USA at all?

I think that's a really far fetched idea.

Kyle, what do you think?

I really like it.

I think yeah, the injury risk is such a prominent thing, at least for pitchers, just in baseball in general.

Like I know, you know, I grew up Carson, I big hockey fans and the NHL for a while, the All-Star format was like North America versus the world.

And they just did All-Star games like that.

And I think like that could be kind of a fun like here, you're North American All-Stars, here, you're like Asian All-Stars, you're, you know, European All-Stars.

We got, you know, Great Britain, we got Italy and even like you can mix it up and do like Caribbean All-Stars.

Like you could do a bunch of different formats that could be really fun.

But like the balance of if you want guys really airing it out and giving it their all, I think like a mid-season exhibition, you're not going to get that.

And I think that is what we get now, which is great, but you're right, like some of these guys are still kind of obviously ramping up.

And so you're getting this like kind of said facsimile of a guy looking like he's really trying, but it's like 80 or 90% of what it is.

And there's also something to be said for like, are you going to get the semi pro teams, like the great stories, like the the checking team, like, are they going to come mid-season versus now, where is it going to be host?

Like there's a lot of issues with it.

I think it would really be fun.

I kind of think we just leave it as it is that like you consider it kind of extended spring training for some of these better players.

We're not seeing guys go super deep.

At least all of this is pitching concerns, you know, the theme for the show.

But yeah, they aren't going too deep.

You know, guys are going maybe four or five innings, which we're starting to see in spring training starts now anyway.

So I think we keep that.

It keeps like that same level of competition.

And you just, I mean, it's baseball.

There's going to be some injury risk and it's going to be fluke stuff, like you know, everyone's big concern is, well, Edward D has got hurt in the last world baseball classic.

And it's like, yeah, he got hurt jumping for joy, like random injuries happen all the time for the stupidest reasons.

That's just part of life.

And so I think for the game of baseball, it's so sick to have it right now.

Like I don't know that people have been as geeked to watch baseball.

Like people are going to be stoked to watch spring training starts now and are like counting down the minutes until opening day.

And I think that's a really cool thing that you don't really get any other time.

Two things.

One, baseball players should never jump for joy.

Kendra's Morales' career was ruined like that.

And two, you know who was in mid season form, play off Aaron Judge.

We saw that throughout the entire world baseball classic.

And you know what I'm supposed to do.

You're supposed to season four.

It's moving on.

We have some pitching news out of Red's camp, Chase Burns, Red Louder and Brandon Williamson all made the Reds roster.

They're kind of going to piggyback off each other.

I believe to start the season because none of them are fully stretched out.

Plus they're being really conservative with their workloads.

Was it really ever in question that Chase Burns was going to make the roster?

I don't think so.

Right.

I'm like from a sense of if he's healthy enough, but I think look that forearm, whatever that was last year that was totally Matt workload.

Matt.

The Phantom forearm just like, you know, the Phantom.

My finger got caught in a zipper injuries that happened to baseball players only last bit of news here.

Of course, pitching themed.

We've got Garrett Cole through a scoreless inning in his 2026 debut any average 90 6.9 on his fastball Kyle.

Did you see anything?

I saw there was a tweet from the PL stats account.

Anything interesting from those 10 pitches he threw in one inning.

I thought it looked good.

Like he was gassed up.

We have one of the things that I really like about our player cards is they show you performance kind of relative to what they were the last time we saw them.

So I have it set up that it'll pull relative to 2024 and he was up.

His Vila looked really good.

He was up a mile an hour on the four scene.

He was, you know, touching 97, sat 96.9.

The sinker was up, you know, almost 98.

He only threw two.

Again, like he threw two of them.

Like these are very small samples as we're working with.

But like the fact that like he could hit that top gear even in a short burst is very encouraging because we've seen we haven't seen that with a lot of guys like

Spencer Strider or Shane McClanahan.

Like those are guys where it's just like, oh, we're hearing.

Oh, he's only going 80% he's ramping back up and like it's a lot harder to project Vila improvement on injured guys versus this.

Like, oh, okay.

Now it's just stamina.

Now it's just building up them letting him eat more that like he's got the fastball.

He's got the Vila.

So it's a lot easier to be feel confident in that.

Yeah, it was very encouraged by Garrett Cole start as a Yankee fan.

Just in case anyone forgot.

But that doesn't fit.

No one there.

Well, we'll get to your twins later.

I see that in the rundown.

That'll do it for the captain's report.

We will be right back with our position previews starting with starting pitcher Kyle bland has joined Carson and I for today's show.

So stay tuned.

We'll be right back.

Welcome back to the shallows.

This pod designed specifically for all you shallot team managers out there.

We're going to talk about starting pitchers and relief pitcher previews today with Kyle with Carson giving you our biggest targets.

Our biggest avoid and our biggest swing for the fences picks.

So first up, we have starters and Kyle as our guest, what is your preliminary thoughts on the position as a whole and then give us your two biggest targets.

And starters, it's it's beautiful in the sense that like it's what you make it out to be there's something for everybody.

If you want that locked down ace, there's at least three of them. I would consider like just the complete alphas your your great whites.

If you will of the position that like these guys are undoubtedly the top.

And then you have just a bunch like if you're you're not committed to that mid to late first price tag that like, OK, you can start shopping in the second and third and have a lot of really quality options that do a lot of different things for you, whether you want ratios, whether you want innings.

And then even as you get down, I think there are a lot of you know, we'll get into mid round like kind of targets guys who were maybe were fading and even some like late round really like high impacts.

Guys were showing a lot of really fun stuff that maybe we can extrapolate from and go from there. So I think it's great because there's something for everybody and that's great for drafts because you can usually get your guy without having to reach too much.

Carson, what do you think about pitching as a whole.

I'm going to piggyback off that I love the great way. Thank you for using aquatic terminology. You're you're in spirit today. I'm going to start calling them the killer whales.

He gets it ladies gentlemen.

He knows it.

It's so nice for analysis purposes. Do you have a definite tier one of pictures. I feel like it's been since the peak Scherzer Verlander and Kershaw years.

That we've had that and Zach Renke too. I he often gets cast aside, but like it's been a while since we've had that very consistent we say these guys are great.

They are first round values very early second. I mean they're fantastic. The rest is a lot of like kind of you can pick what you like.

If you like really high strikeout, maybe more flimsy glass cannon type guys. There's tons of those. It may be more consistent volume based.

Chris for chance has Logan web types. Those are in there. You got productive veterans, young guns. It's a really interesting mix. And I think there's a lot of value throughout the mid to later rounds of the draft.

There really is a lot of value in the mid to late rounds. I'm finding that out as we're doing our slow drafts here on pitch list. You know the behind the scenes leads that we have.

I really am surprised at just how deep the pitcher pool goes this year. Sometimes you know in the past it's been maybe 30, 40 guys that you want to roster now it's kind of like almost 60. I don't mind having on my roster.

I think it's a really fun time or really nerve wracking time to deal with pitching. So with that in mind Kyle, who are your two targets that you're aiming for for starting pictures.

Oh man, I love these are two guys who just have just nasty stuff. Nolan McLean and Emmett she in. If you didn't watch Nolan McLean start the row baseball classic final. You missed just the guys using a wiffle ball like the amount of movement he gets on all of his pitches is absolutely absurd.

We're talking like he can get 40 inches of separation from his fastball to his sweeper and his curve ball. Like I don't understand how hitters like ever make contact. Frankly, like there are a lot of concerns that a woman he can't come at it because they move so much like the Matt brush comes to mind of like oh they're huge pitches, but they're always out of the zone.

But like when you have four, five of them and they're all like plus like hitters have to respect your ability to drop one in that's going to touch the edge of the zone and he did he was just surgical yesterday in that start. I know he gave up to earned including a Homer, but like he made some of these MLB hitters look absolutely foolish.

And he's stretched out the meds let him go. They're a really competitive team. They're going to win a lot of games. They have a great bullpen behind them. We'll get to that later that like I really like what Nolan McLean brings to the table and msgm for the Dodgers. I think he kind of goes under the radar. You hear it all about the the top level signings, the the glass now show hey Blake snow, you know, he's injured, but you know he's coming back and you know what Yamamoto.

And now talk of Rocky is apparently going to make the rotation out of spring training, which is certainly a decision.

But msgm like he's just great like behind the scenes like he's got just really good stuff. He's projected right now for like 160 innings. I'm that's probably like a median outcome for any Dodgers starter.

I think he's capable of doing more, especially if they, you know, don't really puts around with the six band rotation, but like again another quality winning ball club.

They play solid defense behind him. I think those are two young guys on very good teams who are fully stretched out who have just the skills to make hitters look foolish.

I love these two picks here, msgm. I am very big on as well. No one claim I have found some interesting like ranges where he's going in drafts and I don't quite understand it because he is technically the number one pitching prospect in baseball because he still qualifies.

Yeah. So that is wild to me that I've seen just like a range of of where his draft position goes. Carson, who are your two picks that you're targeting at starting pitcher?

See, I want to use target to just mean guys I'm hunting for not necessarily guys in the mid rounds even like specifically.

So I'm telling you one man, I've said it a few times. I just think top mentioned earlier how there's three.

I'm going to keep calling killer whales. I just like that enough to big orcas that are huge and feisty and they're nasty. And I'm telling you, I think Paul skeens has the biggest floor of any of them.

He's taken seconds of pitchers right now and looking at the current, I'm pulling this live ladies and gentlemen pulling it at the rankings of where he's being taken.

It's a nine ADP and I think we're at an interesting point where you have the first four that's going to be the same in almost every single league across the world of your hitters.

That five is usually going to be either Akunya and Jose Ramirez and we get to seven and things get a little murky and I just think skeens is so dependable and so excellent.

I think the pirates are going to be kind of sneaky decent this year so the winds isn't something you can just totally freak out on.

He's going to get quality starts is going to get strikeouts. I think he has the best command, one of the best command certainly maybe the best command to stuff ratio and baseball.

It's up there Kyle can attest to that maybe better as I can, but I don't think there's a stat you can look at that said he isn't fantastic.

I think he's great at the ADP people are hesitant to take pitchers early. I'm giving you the full green light. I absolutely if he slips there.

And my second target is another young hot prospect. I mean skeens isn't a prospect, but you know what I mean chase burns.

Chase burns from a pitch modeling standpoint was like one of the best pitchers in baseball last year straight up in you know a third of a season.

He was electric and I think his value was slightly going to is slightly low relative to that production because he had a few kind of flare starts injury concerns the ERA was I think very inflated maybe by look a run to two runs.

He's really good. He's going past round 10 at the moment. I think he has a tremendous amount of upside.

And I think he's going to get a long leash. I really do now that I mean they're going to need someone to throw the baseball hunter green is going to be out for half season more in him in a little bit.

I think he's going to be given the green light and I want to seem thrive.

I hate playing that if you take out this start game, right, but chase burns just had like one of those games in his second career outing last year where he went a third of an inning and gave up what's that five earned runs and nine hits.

It was just got ambushed by red socks. If you take that out. I don't know what the numbers are. I can't do the math. I'm not. I'm not Kyle smart like that. Okay.

But if you take that start out, he was ridiculous. Okay. And for a guy who had maybe what half a season of minor league experience before that.

I mean the the strikeout totals for double digit strikeouts total games in his like first, I don't know six career starts or whatever that is if you want to take out the one inning one that got rained out.

He basically had four 10 strikeout games in a row just absolutely nuts love chase burns. And then schemes is just what what scares me about schemes and I don't mean this like scare like he's going to get hurt.

He does it so effortlessly. You watch some guys when they pitch they look like they have to get everything behind every pitch and he's just out there and it just comes out of his hand at 98.

It's not it's not just that he's seven pitches now bonafide seven pitches he throws. It's really, really rare and real quick. I was able to pull up since that start you talked about against the red socks burns.

The next six starts he made one of them was abbreviated, but he threw 29 innings 49 strikeouts 3.72 ERA, which is a little inflated because of a couple home runs, but 1.795. And I kind of sells it. I mean he's got annihilating stuff.

He is really electric. He really is.

He'll strike out the world and the great America small park. It's it's going to be tough, especially like because when he gets hit, he can get popped a little bit hard.

I know like prime Spencer strider had that issue and that's going to be tough and at that park, but it's also like he's going to get you tons of strikeouts while he does it. He's not going.

He had really like incredible pressure natural command like his ability to locate at like you said, this was his first real professional season.

And he's he just hit the ground running so so well. And it's also, you know, he had a hundred innings between the miners and the majors last year. That's not nothing. He's like a normal.

If you, you know, wasn't injured or isn't getting piggybacked, like you could see him jumping 40, 50, even 60 innings.

And I think a lot of people forget the reds give their young starters a long leash.

Like when hunter wrap or one hundred green was this age, they were letting him go 100 pitches deep, like late in the season that they are.

They're they're the forward thinking as far as like not innings limits, but like monitoring workloads in like a more technical like challenging way rather than just like a raw like, okay, he hit his pitch limit.

Okay, he had his innings limit that they're very smart about it. And so I think they'll let him eat if he's if he's really cruising and they'll let him go late in the season.

And a sneaky thing about burns to is if he's the piggyback starter, that's a lot of win chances that whoever's going to be opening, they get, you know, the short end of the stick as far as they can't get wins.

But whoever's going to be piggybacking is usually going to be able to pick up a lot of wins in relief, even when they go like three or four innings.

More on monitoring workloads later, we actually do have a question from the crew about that, which we will get to later. So stay tuned if you're interested in that.

My picks here are Cam Schletler and Kyle Bradish. I love the ceiling of both of these guys. I also think that they both have very safe floors.

Cam Schletler is, look, you can look at numbers all you want and we are not a super analytical podcast when it comes to that.

If you want to know more about all that stuff, listen to the approach angle, right?

Well, I just, I just see a guy in Cam Schletler who says, hit my fastball. You can't any just throws it by guys. And I just love a guy who's got that demeanor on the mound that like I am better than you.

And there's nothing you can do about a kind of attitude and his stuff is nasty too. So I'm a big Cam Schletler guy. And then Kyle Bradish is just been nothing but great anytime he's healthy on the mound.

Like why wouldn't you target him? I think you can wait. If you're not going to go with the strategy to get, you know, one of the top three guys and we talked about this in our, in our round by round preview, go back and listen to that guys over the last few weeks.

If you're not going to target the top top end pitchers, Bradish makes for a very sneaky ace pick, a little bit later on, then, then most of the top 10 pitchers are going.

And I think Bradish, though not currently ranked in the top 10 has a very good chance of becoming a top 10 pitcher this year onto the avoids. Kyle, who are you avoiding?

I'm avoiding Hunter Brown. He's just a guy like I understand like the results have been very good.

It's I just don't really believe it. I think he's gotten a lot of kind of fortuitous look. I mean, he had a 262 Babiff last year, which he's going to have some control of that.

But I mean, not a ton. Houston is it plays middling as a park, but like there can be some homers allowed. He's not like, you know, right around 50% ground ball. So it's not like he's a high ground ball pitcher.

I just don't I just don't quite get it. And for the price of like, you know, the top tier ace that he's being drafted at, I, you know, if he does well, I'm just going to be happy to see it on someone else's team.

I would much rather have kind of a lot of the other guys going around him at that kind of ace like SP one kind of price point.

And then my second one is a little bit further down, but it's it's Luis Castillo. And he's a guy who I've consistently, you know, watched succeed on someone else's team. I just never quite understand how he's run a, you know, career of a mid threes ERA when he's especially this like recent vintage where he's not getting.

Strikeouts, he's, you know, just relying on at this point T mobile park to to keep him afloat.

I, I'm just always terrified that this is going to be like I don't want to be holding the bag when you know the bottom falls out of Luis Castillo and every year I say that.

And I, you know what, this is the year where it's going to be proven true.

I don't find Luis Castillo has ever been even at his best super helpful in ratios.

Sure, you at his peak, he was getting you a lot of strikeouts, but he played for bad red steam wasn't getting you a lot of wins.

I just like you, I just don't understand him much at all.

Carson, over to you, who are you avoiding?

Uh, this may come as a surprise. I'm avoiding Joe Ryan and I'm avoiding Joe Ryan.

Uh, first of all, the wins are going to be difficult to come by this year, but I'm, me your twins fan card.

I'll have to come and take it.

Also, no one has those anymore. Come on.

Uh, Joe Ryan, like, is really fun for two months.

And then he hasn't been able to sustain it.

And for a couple of years, there's been a question of if, but Joe Ryan's been in league since 2021.

Um, he's had his run and go of it.

He has, we've kind of seen it by this point.

I think by now, the runway, the training wheels are over, uh, and off.

You're expected to be able to perform at a consistent level.

And I think we can't say if anymore.

Here's the thing with Joe Ryan. He allows a lot of home runs and he has not been able to consistently go deep into the season with the ability to sustain the production that he has shown the first couple of months.

It's never clicked.

And I kind of think we're getting to the point where I'm saying, I don't think it will click or maybe it just kind of intermittently clicks.

Uh, you know, like, uh, like something that's kind of broken, but you can't quite fix it or like my car is ignition sometimes.

It just doesn't totally work.

And I like it on paper.

I don't think over a full season. It's that valuable and you want a bit more dependability.

Uh, my second avoid is sort of similar in a weird way.

Tyler Glass now.

Tyler Glass now used to be like on a head to head weekly league.

Really fun because when he pitched, he was a metric.

I don't know if you realized last year when he pitched, he was like, yeah, pretty good.

Decent nice.

And, uh, the risk factor that you're taking with taking class now.

Of innings limits and depth of starts and all that jazz.

Is made much worse by the fact that he isn't that guy anymore where you can say he's pitching at like a psi young pace for like 90 innings, which is sort of what you saw with the raise and maybe a little earlier in a Dodgers career.

There was hesitancy.

The Dodgers, uh, used him in the bullpen in the world series and you think in absolutely if that's your start if you're glass down because you get that production.

I don't see it.

He's taken fairly high in drums.

I mean relative to a lot of other guys that I think have way more length.

And honestly, maybe even comparable stuff, which is something that's insane to say now.

The first time the glass down was at the very top of the leaderboards for years, but I just think it's too much of a glass cannon for a cannon that doesn't have a ton of gunpowder.

Here's a fun glass.

Last year it was the first year for a glass now since 2018, where he threw 60 innings and had a fit over three.

That every other year, he had a fit under two or he got injured in 2022 didn't really pitch and COVID shortened 2020.

He had a 360 six fifths.

So really slacking there, but like 2019, 226, 2021, 277, 296, 291, 290, like ripping off sub three fifths, which is tells you like those ratios are elite.

But then last year 90 innings, 376, which is like above average, but like when you think of Tyler glass now, you're thinking like cream of the crop ratios.

Not oh, he was helpful.

And so I think yeah, that is kind of the canary in the coal mine a little bit for him.

Looking at Tyler glass now is ADP.

If just taking the average on fantasy pros, not going by any specific site, it's 107.8.

Chase burns is 112.6.

If it's I mean, it's an obvious choice there, like Chase burns, right?

If you're going between those two, to me, that's no greater.

This now just is really made of glass.

It's it's a glass now or a glass now who's 10 years younger.

Yeah, basically.

And eventually you have to imagine eventually all of those injuries that he's experienced, whether they're phantom injuries or they're just, you know, because there are some guys who just if they're not a hundred percent and quiet Leonard is one of them in the NBA, if they're not a hundred percent, they do not play.

And I don't know if glass now is one of those guys, but let's assume that he's not right.

So he'll play it sub 100% if he can.

You have to imagine that these injuries eventually take a toll and you can't perform the same way you used to be able to.

And it's not like all these injuries are like, oh, his back, where his, you know, his knee, they are arm related.

So, you know, I don't, I don't know why anyone would draft glass now this year.

I know that sounds really bad, but like, please, please don't name for him.

My two avoids are going to be Hazelus Luzardo and Zach Wheeler.

We've talked about Zach Wheeler before.

He's coming off of a thoracic outlet syndrome and that is a career ending injury for most players.

I realize that Wheeler's talent level starts way up here.

If you're listening, my hand is above my head.

And so to come down from there, he's got more weight than it is.

And I really do apologize that it takes up a lot of the frame.

But he, so he's got a long way down to go before he's, you know, cooked, but it's just an injury that I want no part of.

And I know there was one point in spring training where he was shooting up draft boards.

And I'm glad that's kind of cooled off a little bit.

So he's an avoid for me.

And then like, like you guys with, with Hunter Brown and Joe Ryan, I just don't get Luzardo.

I just don't very up and down, unpredictable.

And he's had a number of injuries in his career and great.

He managed to stay healthy last year, but that's one year with a guy with shoulder issues.

I am, I'm out on Luzardo, especially at the price you have to pay for him.

And that's too Philly guys.

Man, that Philly rotation with Nola, highly questionable.

Do you guys have any notes on Luzardo or Wheeler or should we move on to swing for the fences?

I've got one on Wheeler in a bit.

We'll get to it.

Oh, that's a tease. Nice.

Swing for the fences, Kyle.

Who are you taking?

That's like your, your big swing.

Your home run.

So, yeah, we kind of already covered him.

Garret Coal.

Like I think, after seeing that Velo today, like literally, this was typing up the show notes right before recording.

I OK, like Ain't we be scared?

They're in, like if the if Garret Coal is back, back.

Like I'm in, like, Barth, and he's getting a injury discount.

You know what people are going to be scared?

He's an old pitcher, but like if we're seeing that the stuff is just un-fazed.

Why not that like the thing about like an older picture coming back from injury is like

Team so necessarily have to be concerned about like down the line like are they like causing more damage

It is just kind of like now we got we have to lean in this year of the Yankees are

An older competitor team like they basically need to be all in this year

And so they're gonna just let him run they need to win the division, you know

That's gonna be kind of a knife fight to get out of the AL East with the title and get like

Hopefully a buy because that's so important especially, you know in the playoffs structures

We've seen so I really think Garrett calls look good, you know in all his

Entire one hitting in 10 pitches today, but that was enough for me to be back in and then maybe the the bigger one and the cheaper

Picture actually is Luis Severino

Holy goodness. He looked so good in the game against the US in the world baseball classic

He was running his fastball both fastballs and he threw 30 of them combined

averaging over 98 on them, which was two and a half miles an hour over where he was last year

He also mixed in a cutter at 96 his sweeper was getting

16 plus inches of movement at 87 like just

Everything across the board five pitches all of them added at least two miles an hour

Which is wild the A's it's gonna be a rough ballpark. We know that it's pretty home or happy pretty

You know

It's it's gonna be good for hitters

But the flip side of that is he's pitching in the AL West and that has two of the best pictures parks in all of baseball

In Seattle and Texas those were one and two for most pitcher friendly ballpark

So he's gonna get his fair share of games there too. So I'm

I'm in I am prioritizing

Severino as like my late run dart throws and as as I keep doing drafts

He keeps like jumping up like another round another round for me because I'm just like I can't miss him

Wow, interesting. We haven't seen Sevy like that since

A long time ago, but that's really exciting and I do wonder just to play devil's advocate if he was just

Amped up, you know what I mean because that was a big stage for him to be on and he hasn't quite

Been on that stage in a few years

Carson over to you

Who are you swinging for the fences on?

So I've got a few guys here running right down

So one of them was I'm gonna say the twins young guns

And that's gonna be mcable that's going to be Sevy Matthews and that's gonna say Taj Bradley

They're all not super young prospects. They've been around either a cup of coffee or like a

Cake in the majors. I don't know that you get cakes at cafes right sometimes. Yeah, you know what I mean

Um, yeah muffin muffins excellent. I like that very much now. I'm hungry

Uh

The twins young guns they're gonna have an elongated leash this year because they are going to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks

It looks like Bailey Oprah is gonna play a diminishing role in the rotation. Of course poppilope is this out

So they invested a lot

From a prospect return capital in getting able and Bradley former top prospects themselves or I think current mcables up there

I just graduated whatever and this spring they've looked good

Kyle can look it Kyle they've looked good right

Yeah, mcable specifically has he's really popped the spring training his his numbers have really been jumping off the board

So I'm I'm fully in with you on on mcable and yeah, Taj Bradley's looked really good too. I think

They've got there's something in the lot of there

With these people have been zipping and Sevy Matthews for me and I'll say this a bit

I think later he's like two plus two has not equal four with Debbie Matthews every single thing

I look at from the stuff grades to the locations to the

Yeah, and to fit the x-fip the everything the fact that he can touch 98 miles an hour none of it makes sense to me

and I just think

Like inherently and what I know about baseball and baseball stats

I just think something else to break maybe he isn't gonna be able to perform to his expected stats because of something or other

We've seen that with Garrett Cole even for a few years back in like the earlier Yankee years

He'd allow a lot of home runs and the x-fip

Home run normalizing stats made like him more than his year ray, but

You know, they'd be able to hit another fence. We've seen that with zebby

We saw that with movie barland a few years ago. I just think Matthews

has a lot to like and

He's someone I think I just got to believe in because my world view would be shattered otherwise

My other two swing for the fences are semi related number 100 green as an isl stash

I think it's worth maybe throwing like a 21st 22nd round on it because

Listen we've talked before about the risk tolerance and shooting for ceiling and I think with hunter green

You've got an ace

A bonafide elite player that's especially in a week-to-week basis one of his starts is gonna be fantastic, right? And

I think it's with hunter green like you already expected him to miss a lot of the year or a portion of the year because that's what he's done and

I think you can spend a little bit

Invest now to reap returns later. I think that's nice and if he comes back fantastic

You're going to be in a great shape the other guy I have

Is Zach Wheeler we've talked about it before but

Here's the thing with Zach Wheeler right now. He's going at 129 on the ADP

That is too high. I'm showing you right now. However

Something about a thoracic outlet syndrome

TOS is that there's kind of like two forms of it and as I understand it

Wheeler has the not-career ending alarm bells ringing one. He also is going to be a great

Case study to look at because we have almost a sample size of zero of elite pitchers who have had that surgery and come back the year

Later that being there's almost no one that that's like

So you have I don't know

He's looked decent. I mean it seems like he's looking decent. There are

Signs from the organization that they're semi bullish on it. He's super bullish the organization's a little more reserved

But I think he's going to play a decent amount this year

Is that going to be five starts or 25? I don't think we really know

But when we're talking about risk tolerance at around 13. It's too much for me

Round 17 round 18. I think it's very very plausible that he could slip in these drafts for all the reasons we've highlighted Eric

And if he's around that 17th 16th round

Um, we were talking about upside versus floor

You're up sides the best picture in baseball simple as that

Okay, I can get behind

17 18 I can I can draft him at that because a lot of the guys we're talking about here are not

You know, they're not going to hurt you if they don't pan out based on their ADP of where they're going right now and drafts

And mind you the season starts next week

So we're kind of we've kind of I think settled in ADP at this point. So these guys they're not going to

uh

Like you said risk reward the amount you're investing in them uh when you draft

It's not crazy

So to take these guys with their upside is not a big deal

This is why they are the swing for the fences pick and it wheeler at 17 and 18

He would not be an avoid for me there. I can tell you that uh and my picks are going to be Shane Bosz and

Cade Horton if you want to talk about swinging for the fences

Is Shane Bosz good? You're you're

Just a baseline simple question. Is he good? We don't know we'll find out because you know he uh was hurt and then he played his

First full healthy season and however long at George M. Steinbrenner Field

Which is Yankee Stadium with humidity so the ball flies right so

We don't know if Shane Bosz is any good

That's why you're swinging for the fences on the fact that he might be and then Cade Horton showed a lot of promise last year

He's looked pretty decent this spring

With a little bit of unlucky sprinkled in there um

So I kind of like Cade Horton a little bit. I think he he could be he could be interesting and he's not very expensive again

High upside was a top prospect

Cubs really like him and he's just gonna be able to go he threw let's see what's this about

Almost 150 innings last year

So there's really you know you can get 165 out of him 175 easily

Um, so if you're looking for you know innings in the late rounds is like your seventh starter

We talked about that seven you know how many pictures

Should I draft you know set your seventh eighth starter

Can't hurt to draft Cade Horton

That kind of does it for our starting pitching previews

Uh, just to recap it real quick. We've got Nolan McLean and Emmett Sheen

Paul Schien's chase burns cam Schlytler and Kyle Bradish as our targets

As our avoids we have Hunter Brown Luis Castillo Joe Ryan Tyler glass now Haseus Luzardo and Zach Wheeler

With a little asterisk next to Wheeler as uh his ADP

And then our swing for the fences picks are Luis Severino Garrett Cole the twins young guns able Zebi and Taj Bradley

Hunter Green Zach Wheeler again with the little asterisk for ADP

Shane Bosn and Cade Horton when we come back

We will have relief pitchers and we've got a nice little twist for you

We've got closers and then we've got saves plus holds leaks

So we're going to address both of those in our relief pitcher preview in just a moment states

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Dude

Welcome back to the shallows the pod design specifically for you shallow league managers

Welcome in Kyle blend to the show. He's been here the entire episode with us. We can't thank him enough

affectionately known as big dog

In addition to his giant title here at pitcher list and of course Carson with us as well relief pitcher preview

I would ask you preliminary thoughts on the the position

But this position is just an absolute mess depending on what uh league

Settings you play with so we're just gonna jump right into our targets here Kyle starting with you as our guests

What we're gonna do is we're gonna do one closer to target in a regular saves league and one

relief pitcher to target

In a saves plus holds league again target avoid and swing for the fences on and when we get to swing for the fences

How do you swing for the fence on a relief pitcher? We'll get there though. That'll be fun

Kyle your target one closer one save plus hole

Yeah, closer. Uh, I think you guys you talked about him last last week in your last podcast about uh

You let him go out to see but Devon Williams. I'm a fan. He is so far out there with exactly. I don't know man

Tell me Kyle tell me Kyle tell us preach. I mean

Again, like mats are gonna be a great team. They're gonna have a lot of opportunities to win ball games

I think this is a guy, you know, we were talking about Tyler glass now and like what his fips are and like all the last year was

outlier

Devon Williams hasn't had a season with more than 20 innings

And a 5 over 3. He's just never had it his career 5 like estimator is 2.45 which matches his career ERA exactly

Like this is an absolutely elite pitcher who was just

Undone by whatever bad juju the Yankees have in that closer role like I it got

Play homes the year before that it got Devon Williams

I'm I'm praying for David Bednar that it doesn't

Whatever that monster is doesn't just get him to but man the

The like skills to results ratio for Yankees closer is just abysmal

And so now that he's off the Yankees I'm buying him on another team that isn't cursed in that night didn't grow

I'm Devon Williams

and then

Kind of in the the save hold kind of a little like deeper. I really like Brian of Ryu

You know hater is nursing an injury in Houston right now

And so a braille is like oh he's the the fill in injury closer and then when hater comes back

He'll get kind of booted down the packing order

It's not a given that hater's gonna come back and it's just gonna be seamless right back to you know

Setting the world on fire with his with his crazy strikeouts like there can be whatever hiccups in recovery

There could be you know, maybe a braille just shoves and they ease hater back in or they kind of make it a co-closer role

Like and even if hater comes back and he's just back in his normal form

A braille is going to be one of the elite setup men in the entire league

So like I think I'm I'm taking a flyer on him in all of my saves only leagues

But like in a save hold leaks. He's absolutely found money because he's gonna get you saves in the first half of the year

And at worst he's gonna be a great holds option in the second half

A braille has been just phenomenal for a handful of years now

And if you're looking for a ratio smoother or just a

Reliever that can help you win strikeouts on a week to week basis in a categories league

Like a braille who's gonna does a good chance. He has 100 plus strikeouts as reliever

Easily and so he's a really good pick. I think regardless of format and like you said, he's a really good bet

As a handcuff if we want to borrow a term from fantasy football Carson over you

Fancy football mention

Over to you

Who are your targets?

My targets are going to be fat stacks jacks scryffin jacks and also maybe my favorite reliever in bay

Or just maybe my favorite pitcher in baseball Tyler Rogers. Please tell me that his grip in jacks is real that's a Carson original

I

Years it's just like every time he'd come on. I'd just say it's fast. That's fat stacks jacks

He's putting in the show notes right now. I love you. Thank you Eric. No, that's Kyle. It's 100% Kyle. Oh, it's got thank you guys. Oh my guy

Um, but Griffin jacks man Kyle and I have we're part of a three person cult with Jack Foley over like

Well, I guess now a former twins bullpen guys, but Griffin jacks

Especially is the leader of it of just some of the gnarliest stuff in baseball

Absolutely

disgusting revolting

filthy

nasty

Bust open to the stories

Read it. It will tell you about Griffin jacks and the one reservation I have is he's primarily a setup guy

He's probably going to have a lot of closer opportunities here with

now tamper bay rays and

There's something weird about closers and this is I think a semi-controversial topic and I actually be curious to hear your take on this Kyle

About the closer role in particular and if about

about closers and stuff and

About performance in the ninth inning versus elsewhere

I think we've seen a lot of instances of guys being hesitant. I remember this was a big story with Josh Hader about being really hesitant and poorly performing in the eighth

And also set up guys going into the ninth anything that makes sense about a nerves race

Basis some guys can do it. I feel like some guys camp Griffin jacks historically has gotten save opportunities with the twins

And has done

Media ochre certainly relative his truest production in setups where he's been sensational

That being said, I trust the stuff. He's been seemingly getting better in the year

I love fat stacks jacks. He's taken so late in drafts. I love him so much the other guy is Tyler Rogers who throws

Who is a unicorn? I think we can properly call him a unicorn

No one else does what he does and he is going to be on a blue jays team

That is going to have a player. I'm talking about later and I don't believe in that player

And so I wonder if Tyler Rogers is going to be a kind of closer. He has pitched a lot of innings

He throw he is cut down his walk rate to 2% and no one can hit his pitches

And so he has dramatically improved his control where originally early on his career that was

Up semi it's caused a bit of issues for him

I like him a lot also taking super super late. I think he's a really fun value

And I like those two guys a lot especially with saves and hold leagues

Tyler

Rogers is the submarine right not to use the submarine. Yes, Taylor Rogers. Okay. He has the guy

Clarified everybody. I was it from his ankles. Yeah, it is quite a sight to see him

Pitch he carried me for a little bit last year and saves plus hold leagues because

He's just a guy that you can bring in whenever he does a ton of innings. Yeah, he

Doesn't really hurt your arm to throw that soft from that angle you know surprise shocker anyway Kyle

Carson and I have talked a lot about pitcher injuries and you know

Maybe just don't throw a hundred miles an hour every time throw 97 you'll be okay

Anyway, you'd be surprised that like that one-hour difference like the results are so much better

And like that one-hour is what gets you paid, you know, I know I know it's crazy

I just I remember growing up and you know when a guy touched 95 it was a big deal

You know guy sat 90 90 93 and now they're you know sitting a hundred. It's just

Absolutely wild to me

Anyway

Griffin fat stacks jacks. That's gonna stick. I promise you that over to me. Oh

My targets

Jeff Hoffman is my target

the guy in front of Tyler Rogers in the blue jays bullpen

And the reason I'm picking Jeff Hoffman who had a

horrendous

ERA last year there was a stretch where I think maybe every other pitch Jeff Hoffman through was a home run

It's because he threw way too many fastballs last year

And this year he's already said that he's gonna be more slider forward

And that's what gave him success when he was in Philly the year before in 2024

So as if he's gonna change his picks yeah if he's going to change his pitch mix that is a tongue twister for me

And he's gonna be more slider forward and revert back to

His approach from when he was really really good that earned him that closer contract in Toronto

I'm gonna buy into it

Hopefully we see that there's no way of really knowing until the season starts

But if a player comes out and says yeah, my pitch mix was off. I'm gonna start throwing my better pitch more

I'm gonna believe him especially because all he does is throw one inning

So like why not throw the one pitch more in the one inning you're gonna

Play every other day or whatever it is and then my other pick for saves plus holds

His gotta be Abner Uribe in Milwaukee. I mean he led the league in the category last year

So I'm gonna target him and in fact

I did in one of the slow drafts I'm in right now that is a saves plus holds league

Also elite ratios and a really good chance to become the closer because is Trevor migil going to stay healthy

He had a forearm strain last year

I believe he had multiple aisle stints with that with that forearm issue over the last couple seasons. I just not

Thinking that Trevor McGill is going to stay healthy

That's what happens when you throw 103 miles an hour anyway

moving on

To avoid

Kyle who are you avoiding at the belief pitcher position?

I'm avoiding Carlos Estevez for Kansas City

Well, where do I even begin? I was out on him ending the season last year like I know he's kind of the

unquestioned

Closer in Kansas City. He had

She's 42 saves last year and like that's going to stand out in a lot of people's heads when they think back

and I just don't believe it like I don't

Like his I you know, I mentioned ERA estimators a lot his X-FIP was 495

And then even X-R-ERA and FIP those were almost four like those are like league average values

Which makes sense for a guy who's sporting a 20% strikeout rate like as it closer. That's that's not going to get it done

and

now

Now you have the news that Kansas City they're bringing the fences in

It's probably going to be a more home or happy more hitter friendly ballpark

Which is only going to negatively affect him

And you're going through like spring training

It's fascinating. So it looked like you know everything's on fire with Carlos Estevez

because they initially classified his pitches as

Fastballs and he was like he's down five miles an hour

Well, I went back and double checked and stat cast has updated his pitch types

And it says that his most recent appearance. He only through changeups and sliders

and like I don't

Believe that like I don't know that I'm just like I'm not exactly going to call them liars

But I'm a little skeptical that he decided to just not throw a fastball at all in the world baseball classic

Uh

But like if he if he did throw fastball they were down like four miles an hour

And he's the guy who is sitting in the low 90s to begin with so he doesn't exactly have a lot of margin for error there

So like for all of those reasons

Didn't believe in the skills last year the park's going to get worse for pictures

And it looks like his Vilo might be down in spring training. I'm out on

Carlos Estevez and then

One quick one quick stat about Carlos Estevez

The hard hit percentage according to stat cast that he's given up so far this spring

80%

I'm sorry. I'm just never even in this small sample. I've never seen a number that I was just insane. So sorry

Kyle continue

No, but to go back to you know the I don't believe it's all change of sliders

He threw his four same 50% of the time last year. I'm going to have a hard time

He just thinking he just asked that that he just didn't want to use

His majority pitch from last year in the world baseball classic

Anyway, you moving on enough harping on

Carlos Estevez, but my my other fade my other avoid here is syr Anthony Dominguez and

It's not even just that I don't think like the white socks aren't going to be good

They'll be interesting and maybe even frisky, but I don't know. They'll be good and like

I don't really buy that as the reason that they won't have safe opportunities

I just don't think I just really don't believe in syr Anthony Dominguez as closer

And like another thing too for these guys who are kind of

Fringe quality closers on bad teams is you're like oh, well, they'll get traded at the deadline

And like what that means is they might get traded to

A competitor they might get traded to the Yankees the Dodgers the Braves where they're going to get bumped to be like a high leverage

Seventh inning guy and so

Yeah, like the twins. Yeah, absolutely

Right right in front of Taylor Rogers Tyler Rogers

Taylor that

Same person at least it's not Trevor at least I didn't say Trevor Rogers like the broadcast did

For the show this that's yeah, yeah, that was great

Um, but yeah, I just like I think he's like the prime candidate of guy who closes for bad team

And then goes and becomes like

The middle leverage guy for a playoff team like he like that just seems like exactly what this path is for him

And so I'm kind of fading it like if you're really desperate for saves or like if you're in a roto league

Where you can like bank the early season saves and then just cut fate midway through

I think that's perfect like I do that

But like otherwise in a head-to-head I'm out

Carson over to you who are your two avoids at the relief pitcher position. I almost like closer position

Well more or less uh mine is going to be the definite closer or at least one of them

It's gonna be Edwin Diaz to start and I'm avoiding him because at his price

I do not think he will deliver on the value because

the

amount of

Value the Dodgers brings to a closer is not as high as you probably think it is the Dodger

I was looking back since Kenley Janssen they let him go the Dodgers have not been able to get like

I think it was 25 saves was the most they were able to get

And for a guy you're drafting and what's probably gonna be the fifth round maybe

Sixth depending on your format. I mean it can be really really high

um

He's not gonna deliver that much. I think in terms of saves and I like I mean listen

Everyone loves Edwin Diaz. He's a beast. I just don't think he's gonna return the value. You've got a chance to get

Uh

I mean we just went the whole positional previews. You've got a chance to get a really solid

Outfielder you've got a chance to get a really

Nice starting pitcher in there looking at the overall composite rankings

So I'm gonna pull this up right now. You've got Edwin Diaz

Uh, Tingen first of all right after Mason Miller, which is a little crazy. You know it's taking three picks after him

Moody bets. Oh

Yeah, what are guys really expensive and moving further down

I mean Logan Webb Cole-Rangans Roman Anthony Jacob de Graham for a Freeman. I mean these are top guys

Considering I don't think the saves is gonna completely be there. I can't buy it

For my other guy

Hey, you guys remember so like last year in game seven of the world series Jeff Hoffman came in and allowed a home run to McGill Rojas

And the Toronto Blue Jays had a chance to win the world series and then they lost in 11 innings

One of the greatest games of all time and that's good Jeff Hoffman gave a home run to McGill Rojas

And that was throwing a slider and that was sort of indicative of the problems that he had all season

Which hasn't really probably been addressed and he's gonna also go in Toronto and that Toronto team is not going to be as good as this year

So yeah, I'm feigning Jeff Hoffman

Ouch

Confidence is just cratered. He lost the world series and he's just done

I uh, I think

See the the interesting case about Hoffman is

His ADP isn't crazy relative to his upside if you were to revert back to 2024 big if right I understand

I understand maybe he should have been my swing for the fences pick. This is relief pitcher

Invest a high pick in a relief pitcher. I'm sorry. You can hey you can want

You can want me yeah, Eric. I'll tell you what you know who is gonna be swinging for the fences everyone against Jeff Hoffman

Oh boy

I'm gonna throw in a sound effect when I edit the audio this later

Uh, I

Think that if you invest in a relief pitcher super early and again, it depends on your format

Okay, if you're in a saves plus holds league and you

Invest in relief pitching you're going to lose. I'm sorry. It's just going to happen because

Anybody can get a save plus hold at any time and there holds are so unpredictable Kyle

We were talking about this before the show

uh, and if you're in a saves league and you draft a closer super early as Carson was just saying you can get a better outfielder

You can get a better started pitching

Relief pitchers help you generally in categories leagues

One category. Yes, they help massage your ratios. They can get you some strikeouts that might make the difference

But really they're there for one category and are you really going to

Invest a fifth round pick in a guy who's gonna help you with one when I can draft Byron Buxen

And he's gonna help me in five or six depending on how many categories you have in your league. Yep

I did that by the way Carson. I did draft Byron Buxen. Thank you

In both slow draft I hope so to stay healthy anyway my

Uh

avoids are the Tampa Bay raise bullpen period all of them including Griffin fat sacks

I can't say that without laughing

um

and the reason is

because

You just don't know who's going to get a save when in that uh bullpen

You hope it's Griffin's fat stacks jacks

But you don't know

Uh, you don't know who's going to get a hold either because on any given night the uh the guy who is the setup man

Next game capit in the sixth inning

Uh or could pitch in the ninth inning

It's just the organizational philosophy and there's a reason why they didn't bring back the guy who was their closer for the last few years in Pete Fairbanks

It's because they don't need a dedicated closer. That's just not how the organization works

So I'm gonna say the entire raise bullpen is my avoid in saves leagues and in saves plus holds leagues

Moving on to swing for the fences Kyle who are you swinging for the fences on if you can even swing for the fences on relief pictures

I think relief pictures is maybe even one of the more fun positions to swing for the fences because

It's truly like a grip it and rip it like if you miss it does not matter like the

Opportunity cost of picking up some guy off the wavewires so little

But someone I really like and who actually has a decent chance just because the committee's so unsettled is Ryan Stannick in St. Louis

That we don't really know who the closer is going to be there are a couple options

And you know Riley O'Brien was in consideration. Jojo Romero was there last year, but like

Stannick has looked so good

And I know you know met's fans would probably like it's not worth it

It's not worth the the Stannick experience, but like I

It's it's a 99 mile an hour fastball. It's a slider coming in at 88

Just with with tight gyro movement like this is strikeout stuff

He's got good command like he could really put it all together

And the Cardinals are also a team that has shown that like once they settle on roles

They commit to them

So if he shows like he can be the guy that they trust in the ninth inning like that's that's an all season role for him

and then

I think we're all just jumping around and picking raised for each category and different raised new section

But uh Garrett Klivinger that like I

Like he's a guy another great ratios great stuff

It's a dart throw like any of those you know grip and jacks fat stacks jacks is obviously like kind of the the prime high level guy

But Tampa is a kind of team, you know, they're very analytically driven that if they think he's their best reliever

That means he might not necessarily get the ninth inning every game that maybe you know Klivinger moves back into that

They also have Useda, but he's kind of injured right now

But they so they have three options and of those I think Klivinger is the best like

combination of skills and value that I'm going to like take a look at especially in a saves holds leagues because like

those three are going to

Some combination of them is going to close

But then the other two are probably also going to accrue lots of say holds as well

Carson over to you

Who are your swing for the fences picks? So my swing for the fence is a guy that

Unfortunately for me flew under my radar about a year and a half ago

And I was doing a deep dive into the white socks organization recovering from a 41 win season

I think it was as great Taylor Taylor last year had a 4.970 array

He had a

One or sorry. No, I'm not sorry. I was right 1.425

1.42

Elite he did not allow a home run last year in 36 innings

He is gnarly and when if you know Grant Taylor in his story a little bit

He was I think above Paul schemes in the rotation right around with Paul schemes in the rotation back at LSU

I mean he is filthy and he dealt with some injuries and

I think he's fantastic from a per inning basis and if you want to really hammer to point home

There's a chance he might get lengthened out a little bit to start a little bit

In this year. That's something he did in the past. He was in the rotation without LSU

It's certainly possible and I think if you have that upside that he could be a starter that could work out for them

Fantastic, but I think he could be amazing

And then my second guy

Kyle Eric open a browser type in jade and hill look at his desk from last year

I'm dead serious and you the listener do it too

Jaden Hill it's spelled as you think it is look at his stats from last year in the minor leagues and the major leagues

um and like look at the strikeouts to walks

Well, you know something else that really pops out about his profile when you look it up

It says here he's on the Rockies

Okay, yeah, but you know what else he throws a sinker and he throws a hard fastball that isn't totally brilliant on vertical movement

That actually plays up pretty well and also the Rockies have low-key even pretty good developing relievers of the years

So I'm like listen

Listen, I get it. I know and he's not even like on the roster right now

It's a guy to keep in mind. I was looking at this before the show and it popped out of me

He had like a 40k minus walk percentage last year and he kind of just did that in the minor leagues

Like it sort of doesn't make sense and I don't know I could break this down more if I wanted but we don't have the time

Name to keep in mind don't draft him because like what the hell but

What the heck I think you I don't know still

Look, this is relief picture. We're talking about. It's how do you swing for the fences on a relief picture

I have decided to pick guys that you

Have heard of Ryan Walker in San Francisco betting on a bounce back

He said he found a mechanical flaw and

Hopefully that gets him back on track

Also, who else is gonna close games in San Francisco. So Ryan Walker

Is my swing for the fences pick also a good value relative to everyone else

That bar that's going above him so you can get him pretty late and he could be a source of 30 35 saves

San Francisco's a team that does not score a lot of runs

Even with Rafael Devers there

Or they give up almost as many runs as they tend to score

And so I just feel like over the last few years San Francisco has been a very good source of saves

And they kind of stick to their roles too unless you are terrible like Ryan Walker was last year

But I'm betting on a bounce back and then my other swing for the fences pick is Matt brash

Matt brash since coming back from I believe it was Tommy John surgery in 2024. I believe

Uh has been

Filthy, okay

2.470 r a last year a fifth of three and okay a fifth of three but like

You mentioned him and Nolan McLean in the same breath as far as pitch movement those Kyle and

Look, Munoz if I'm not mistaken had a forearm scare at last year

So I'm swinging for the fences that Matt brash might be the closer in Seattle at some point this season

But that does it for our relief pitcher preview. It is just

The Wild West out there when it comes to closers and saves plus holds

But these are the names we talked about

Our targets are Devon Williams Brian O'Brien Griffin that stacks jacks Tyler Rogers

That's the one in Toronto not in is he back with the twins?

Yes

The one that throws women's ankles

The one that throws from his ankles in Toronto Tyler Rogers

Jeff Hoffman and Abner you rebate our avoids our Carlos Estevez

Serantheni Dominguez Edwin Diaz Jeff Hoffman

And the entire Tampa Bay raise bullpen

Uh and our swing for the fences picks are Ryan Stannick Garrett Clevenger

Grant Taylor Jaden Hill Ryan Walker and Matt brash

So if you didn't catch that there is a ray in every single category

That's as a foreign relief pitcher preview. We will be right back with your questions the segment from the crew

When we come back

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Welcome back to the shallows the pod designs specifically for all you shallow league managers out there

This is from the crew our mailbag segment

Where we answer your questions we received a lot of these over the last few weeks

And so because we are focusing on pictures today and we have Kyle here with us

And this is the last season for the season the last show before the season officially kicks off

These are all pitching and draft focused questions. We have received from you our crew

If you'd like to drop us a question that we can answer for you right here in this segment

But like in the future not this one because you can't do it live

You can leave a comment on YouTube. You can hit us up on Twitter or blue sky at arrogant or at cars in the card

And you can email the show the shallows pod at gmail.com

So our first question from nels jensen you might remember we had a question from nels earlier in the season as well

This one came in at the same time. I just thought I will wait till pictures

Nels on blue sky asks

Constructing a team with two aces

Where is the rough ace cutoff in your picture rankings

Kyle let's start with you where about how many pictures deep where do you kind of cut off the ace tier

Like ace means so many things to Sony if I know we've talked about like the the orcas as we're going by now with like the the big three the from one big dog to three other big dogs, you know game recognize game

Like I like them a lot

But I'm happy with

Nine like like I could take nine maybe ten starting pictures and think like okay

This is my sp1 lock. I'm good or if I can get to like if I'm drafting like in the top of the first round

And it's coming back to me like in that second third turn

Like I think if I could snag like

Two of a Christopher Sanchez and like a Logan or sorry not a Logan web because that's just drafting the same picture twice

I love both of them but like a Sanchez and a Jacob de gram like I'm here for that like I think that's a great way to just

lock in

That those elite like you've got your two your set now you can just look at pictures again

But yeah, I think anywhere from like one to nine. I'd be happy

I'd be more than happy with one of them and if I can get to I'd be ecstatic

So I was looking over at the ADP rankings. Let me read you here, and I think we can there's a pretty definite line at least as I read it

12 13 14 and 15 on the rankings is as follows web regans de gram and perolta

16 17 and 18 is Kirby cease and Ryan

To me there isn't a very obvious and definite line

Depending on how bullish you are either after de gram or after perolta. So I think you know, obviously there's a pretty big difference between

some like regans and

Regans and schemes, but I think it's like 15

To me, I'm thinking the top 15 pictures. Those are ace or you know your light aces or whatever you want to call it after that though

That's a definitive tier two. I think that's a really good point

I may toss up there just because I'm so bullish on

Bratish, I think he takes the leap up there and Otani has never been a bad starting picture

It's just pure volume. I think that keeps him out of the conversation there

But yes, I agree with you guys just like a 9 to 15 range of pictures

amount of pictures that kind of is the cutoff there for aces

Bacon on the pl discord. That's the username

Not the snack or breakfast meat item

Bacon on the pl discord the yank's organization talked a decent bit last year about not believing innings limits

We're necessary now that they have additional ways to measure when arms begin to deteriorate

We kind of talked about this earlier in the show and this was the tease for and that was the tease for right now

At the same time we see organizations like Toronto already announcing workload limits for you savage and the Dodgers

Building a staff meant to have built in isle stance. Oh my goodness that can drive you nuts in the fantasy world

um

Would love to hear

Read a deep dive into the dueling philosophies in picture development slash health if possible

I'm just gonna add my quick two cents here and then you guys take it away

There was a time when guys just pitched and they just kept going until they ran into trouble

Oh man Aaron coming out. Sorry

Not to date myself

This was even before my time, you know, Nolan Ryan like had

Wild splits between like his I don't know like when he tore his UCL or tore the labor of minishold or whatever

And then he just like kept kept pitching uh and he had a Hall of Fame career after it

Not that these guys had rubber arms. I know they weren't throwing his hard, but

There was a time when pitch counts didn't matter and

Guys just went and I think

There's something to be said for that

Uh and not babying and we talked about this before not babying these grown athletes because if you look at some of these organizations that baby their pictures more than others

I feel like those organizations tend to have more injuries

Just throwing that out there. Okay, but that's my two cents Kyle. Let's go over to you

Yeah, I think uh teams are getting a lot smarter about it

I know you know, I've had the chance at like a saber analytics conference talk kind of with some team employees

that it's like innings limits are kind of like

You know the early like proto work management and then it's okay

Well, let's look at like pitches per start

But now teams are also looking at it as kind of like you know to go to like a hockey terminology like a shift

That like if you have a long shift in hockey you're gonna get progressively more and more tired even as like

Only a little bit more time is added on at the end and so it in with teams that they're looking at like are these

Challenging innings like are these innings like a 30-pitch inning that drags on that's like those last 10 pitches are going to be

Maybe as hard on the body as the 20 prior because if you think if a guy throws

You know, I think MLB average is about 16 pitches in inning

So if a guy throws anywhere from that to about 20 then he gets a break between innings can kind of recover a little bit

Then go out again do that again and especially if a guy does like a nice efficient like 10 12 pitch inning

Then, you know, maybe he buys himself a little more time on the back end

But like once you get that you know a lot of traffic on the bases. Maybe he walked two guys

That kind of 30-pitch inning that that I'll actually shorten and outing um and so

You kind of have to start looking at

Instead of innings limits. It's it's almost like an efficiency limit of if a guy's really good at getting through innings

Getting his outs regularly that they might be

Less interest like he might go longer in the games that it's almost like a drew rasmus in effect of like

Yeah, he'll get you a quality start from 80 pitches, you know, like it he has to be very efficient

But like the raise will kind of let him go through if they're being eat if they're easy pitches. So I think that's you know, it's always a

Ever-changing landscape as far as limits like that and it is very team-to-team based

I know I talked about the reds tend to give along leash with their pitchers. Um, I know you know

We talked so much about the race today and that they tend to have a shorter or like a more like pitcher specific

Approach to how much of a leash the the starters will go into games and so you do have to kind of be aware of it um I think

Announced workloads for young players

Kind of makes sense, but I think they can also be overblown of if a guy is thrown like triple digits

Professional innings and I think a lot of this is people just look at MLB totals

And if a guy through 60 in the minors and then 40 in the majors

That's a hundred innings. That's what chase burns did last year and like you can see guys will get

50 innings going from 100 to 150 the next season like that happens

pretty often and so

It's just be be smart listen to beat writers for playing time stuff as someone who does his best to project playing time

It's such a dark throw

So listen to what the writers tell you they've got their boots on the ground

They're hearing what the manager says and you know what the manager says isn't law

It's not canon, but it's at least a more educated guest than people who aren't

With the team day-to-day

And the last thing I want to add on to that really and by the way kind of love that shift analogy

um

My minisoten heart is stated

uh

I think that also it's worth mentioning that the Dodgers in the way they've built their team to be playoff ready

And have success there

Dodgers are inherently going to have a different risk tolerance than a wild card chasing team

And let's talk about like this seventh inning

The seventh inning if we're talking about that that's definitely a place where different teams are going to be

Assuming similar pitch counts right

Um

If you are able to have your guy go out longer and have maybe a more risk of

Of where or risk of what not straining your arm straining your rotation your book

But alleviating pressure on your bullpen a little bit that's going to be different depending on what team it is

For the Dodgers they can maybe rely on that sort of built-in iel stints and less dependability

In order to be all systems go in the postseason and that's just going to be a mentality that a team

Like the reds can't have because they're not going to

necessarily guarantee you playoff spot

That's pure automotive joy

I'm Peter the owner of muscle car junior

It started as a hobby then I started posting about it before I knew it

I built the business for storing muscle cars on Facebook marketplace and the community of car lovers on Instagram

Today new customers send me what's that message is from all over

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Learn how meta helps over 35 million American businesses like Peter's grow at meta.com slash community

Water usually wins it warps in rots wood. It pulls it apart bored by bored

Unless you build with treks

Trex marine grade decking is 100% submersible for docs built to last it resists rot warping and decay and salt and fresh water

For homeowners that means care free days on the water not constant maintenance

For builders it means trusted performance that minimizes callbacks

Water has met its match trex decking performance engineered for your life outdoors visit trex.com slash docs

Few things are as uplifting as the greatest moments in sports and nothing brings us together quite like team

USA at the Olympic winter games from NBC

Universal's iconic storytelling to the innovative technology across

Exfinity and peacock

Comcast brings the Olympic Games home to America sharing every moment with millions when team USA steps onto the world stage

We're not just watching. We're cheering together. This winter. We're all on the same team

Comcast proud partner of team USA

You're juggling a lot

But you can still squeeze in a financial plan with the northwestern mutual financial advisor as your partner

It's not only possible. It's personalized. So if you're tying the knot

Closing on a house or welcoming a little one

You'll be ready for whatever life tosses your way. It's the right time to feel less stressed and more certain

That's a better way to money. Let's get started at nm.com

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Kyle had to run we want to thank him so much for joining us today on the pod

But moving on here and we'll talk more about Kyle in a second because that was some really great stuff from him

Nick P not

Nick Pollock not the Nick Pollock, but another Nick P emailed us and we do have

An email and we do answer it

Nick P asses

There are many different opinions about saves plus holds instead of saves

We talked a lot about relief pitching today my logic is saves holds reflects how bullpen's actually work today

With so many committees chasing saves has become more about guessing a manager's plan than evaluating player skill

This change rewards relievers based on talent and production not just opportunity or simply pitching in the ninth inning

Thoughts agree or disagree see Nick. I think you're absolutely right

I think absolutely like managers are becoming more aware of leverage and being more aware of

situational pitching not necessarily save your guy for the bottom of the ninth

That being said the bottom of the ninth is as I believe

Uh the bottom of the line is different. That's a different place in the game than any other inning

And you can see this with guys that are shifted around in their bullpen roles set up guys sometimes can't do it in the ninth and

Conversely closers can't always do it in the eighth and the seventh

It's a different game and when the lights go down and you play the music and hells bells comes on and they're running out

That's a totally different mental

Environment and they show up to the ballpark every day knowing knowing that's their inning and they're locked into that

So saves I do think are still important. This is a team dependent thing and it's not necessarily

Bullpen by committee kind of exists, but it often exists when there isn't a definite closer

Josh hitters the closer in Houston. That's not changing and when Diaz is going to be the cute uh closer in

Los Angeles, that's not changing

barring catastrophe

So I think that absolutely

Reliever roles have shifted and there's not necessarily a definite

Portemain pen kind of deal with bullpen's nowadays

But the ninth inning is still kind of a special different thing and that should be accounted for

Yeah, I agree uh the thing with saves plus holds though as I mentioned earlier in the show

It totally wipes out the value of relievers because you have a much larger pool of players that now become fantasy viable

Like Abnery or rebate last year in a saves league was essentially worthless

Uh in a saves plus holds league he was the number one relief pitcher

Okay, so like you see like the drastic night and day difference there

Uh really can affect player value, especially when it comes to drafting. I

Don't know which format I prefer um

But the fact that an entire position that you're required to have in a saves plus holds leagues essentially makes it worthless

Uh on draft day and then you can just ad drop ad nauseam

I'm kind of I tend to prefer saves leagues for that reason because then it requires you as a fantasy manager

To be read up on things to be uh involved and to be really you know

uh

Interested in solving that one category that you might need to be successful

And uh moving on here to our last question it comes from our very own Adam how on the pitch list discord

Adam asks us what positional

Yes, he did phrase it like this. I copied and pasted what positional position

positions

Do you find to be the easiest to stream in a shallow league?

One where you feel comfortable grabbing off the wire each week based on matchups and opportunity rather than focusing draft capital early to solidify

In everyday player. I think this is I mean, I'm assuming this is referring to position players, right?

So I'm gonna run with that. I think as we've gone through um the positional previews

We've seen that there's definite shelves and cliffs for a lot of different positions some much earlier than others

For me, I think the three that stand up for streaming is outfield uh catcher and first base

First base is a really interesting one because you've got guys that play 160 games a lot more than others

But you also have a lot of guys that are kind of fringe players that will have offensive production

And also hot streaks that comes up a lot players just they're almost naturally big swinging power guys

And so that comes up and they can go on a tear for a month and a half and you'll see that reflected

Catcher is fairly similar in the regard that guys can just kind of come up. It happens and with catcher in particular. There's so much

Shifting going on with that position that player that even can have a backup secondary catcher role

If that primary catcher goes down as they so often do where what have you

You could have a second catcher that does pretty dang well

And then for the outfield especially if you got short side platoon guys or just platoon guys in general

He's passed his prime now

But it like for a few years jock Peterson was one of my favorite players in baseball because he on a rate basis in a daily league

He was fantastic if he only played about 465 played appearances a year

um

So those three I think I can I can shift around and I can do the rest of the game feels

Absolutely not you want to lock that up early

Yeah, I agree with you outfield for sure. It's a very

There's a lot of players that play outfield and every year you just because there's so many players you have a greater odd

There are greater odds of players emerging from nowhere

Um, so outfield is one of those like Ramon Loriento was fantastic last year

And he's an outfielder and he kind of came out of nowhere

um

So like outfield yep, and then catcher because catchers strangely deep especially one catcher leagues

um

You don't have to invest super early if your guy is you know not good

Drop him and then you can find another one or you can just stream the hot

Bad at the position

So I agree with you Carson on that and then yeah like second and third base you better not plan to stream that you would you you

Are asking for pain. Why would you do that to yourself?

On the run down here. I have throw to Kyle

So that he can tell us what's going on and I had this whole plan where I was going to be like this camera this camera

This camera as an ode to Sean Evans on hot ones

But he's not here anymore. So I can't do that and then ruin my thunder. Thanks big dog. Anyway

Well, Kyle enough for coming on. I'll tell you this Kyle

He's the one that's in charge

Pretty much all the stats at pitch release. I had a chance to look at some behind-the-scenes stuff about the player cards

On the pitch list stats account pitch list p of the account go give that a follow it's his

Bread and butter it's his work and it is one of the best fantasy accounts and baseball accounts

You can follow on you know the the world wide web

um

Kyle's fantastic. He does great work and we really appreciate his

elongated time today. We we had a lot to talk about with him

We did and like I said like Carson said and I'll reiterate

Thank you so much to Kyle for joining us today

We're gonna wrap it up right there. We'll be back next Friday with a brand new episode and remember the completely overhauled live draft

Assistant is available now for all PL pro subscribers

It's like having Kyle sitting next to you while you draft really cool

So to make sure you never miss an episode

Please subscribe we're available wherever you get your podcasts if you have a question reach out to us social media the discord email

The shallows pod edgmail.com

He's Carson Picard

At Carson Picard on blue sky. I'm Eric Henrickson at Eric Hen on blue sky and Twitter

That's Eric with a K reminding you that murky waters are fine if you know how to swim and if not we are here

Throwing that ring out to you

To help you take home fantasy glory

See you next time in the shallows. Good luck on your drafts take care y'all