The Shallows EP 007 - Predictions For The Season

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Hey everybody, welcome aboard the Shadows, the pod design specifically for all you 10 team and smaller league managers.

I'm your captain Eric Hendrickson alongside chief make, Karsten.

How are the seas fairing today?

It's opening day!

As we're recording this, which is on Wednesday, by the time you're listening to this,

it's going to be over the weekend, and also it's opening day only for two teams.

I digress, ladies and gentlemen, we have made it.

It is finally the time of year when we're going to hear the cracks of the bats and everything.

Eric, I am ecstatic about the year.

I am so happy.

Hopefully you all subscribed to Netflix because you can watch the first game on Netflix.

That's weird, but you know, I guess the sports is now streaming everywhere.

Yankees giants opening the season today.

I'm really excited.

I've got my Yankee head on.

I've got a Yankee jersey on, Karsten.

I see you've got your twins gear on, twin cities, the cream color.

I know my little, my fancy little jersey here.

I think these are some of the best uniforms in league.

I'm, I'm overjoyed.

I'm a little preemptive here.

And viewers, you'll know the results of these games by the time you see and listen to this.

But man, we made it, Eric.

We made it.

It's finally getting warm outside too.

And you know what that means?

Because we've made it.

We have set sail.

That's right.

This season has gotten underway on today's show.

We have the captain's report.

Who made the team and who didn't?

Meaning who got option to the miners.

Jason Dominguez.

We have our draft results who ended up on our teams.

We're just going to kind of run through the guys that we drafted most over the course of draft season.

And then we have a new segment for you.

It's called charting the course.

It's opening day hype and how not to over react.

And we have a special edition of the captain's report, by the way.

It's going to be really fun.

But before we officially leave port today, we have set sail.

As I said, we release a new episode every Friday.

The audio version releases at 11 a.m. Eastern wherever you get your podcasts.

And the video version premieres on YouTube the same night at 8 p.m. Eastern.

If you want to see our beautiful raid for made for radio mugs.

So be sure to subscribe so you never miss an episode.

Leave us a five star rating, a like, a thumbs up, a kind review.

And don't forget we're part of the pitch list podcast network.

So check out the other pods we have available.

There are new episodes out daily and visit pitch list.com for all the latest and greatest content published daily as well.

And Carson, we have some exciting news for you.

You will be hosting another podcast on the pitch list podcast network.

That's absolutely right.

Thank you very much.

Eric, ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to hear more of my lovely slightly nasally voice,

I will be taking over the first pitch podcast Thursday, Friday and Saturday for a kind of indefinitely over the year here.

And I'm very excited to do that.

So you will get to hear me three more times a week.

Your voice is not slightly nasally.

It's definitely slightly Midwestern email.

I will say that.

So when we come back, we have the captain's report, a special edition of the captain's report.

So stay tuned.

We'll be right back.

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Comcast brings the Olympic Games home to America, sharing every moment with millions.

When team USA steps onto the world stage, we're not just watching.

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Comcast, proud partner of Team USA.

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Welcome back to the Shadows.

This is the captain's report who made the team and who got options.

So basically, if you want to put it in nautical terms,

let's stay on the boat and who we put on the dinghy and just let them go out to Byron Buston.

And who else did we put out there?

Devon Williams, you know, on the on the life raft way out there over the course of the last few weeks is

we're doing our position previews.

So in this special edition of the captain's report,

we're going to talk about again, who made the team, who got options,

but then we're going to talk about our season predictions.

Let's start with who made the team.

We have Mick Abel in Minnesota,

currently early in Boston, a hot waiver wire pickup here for week one,

chased a lotter in Cleveland, JJ Weatherhold in St. Louis and Kevin McGonagall in Detroit.

Not really much to say there about other than what do you think about Mick Abel?

Give us your twins fandom there for a second.

Oh, well, I would be honored to do so.

I like Mick Abel a lot.

I said in the last pot.

I'm kind of quite bullish on the twins rotation relative to I think a lot of people.

Mick Abel was the top prospect for years.

The twins have done a very good job at getting a lot of hard throwing guys to have really nice control.

You look around their rotations of the last few years, very low walk rates in those guys.

I think it's a great spot.

And with the twins, they're going to have a long leash for their guys.

So I'm personally quite optimistic on Abel.

And if I wasn't beaten to the punch, I'd have some shares with him.

Yeah, he had increased velocity all spring showed increased strikeout ability.

If I'm not mistaken as well.

So he's a really exciting week one waiver wire ad or pre week one.

If you did what we told you to do, which was draft injury stashes at the end of your draft.

Mick Abel's a good pick up.

So it was connolly early starting in the rotation for Boston as well.

And of course, you know, the water, weather, hold, and McGonagill will be line up Maystays for their respective teams.

Who got optioned?

Well, the big name counter growth in favor of the show.

Jason Dominguez whiteies in the opener.

Bryce Eldridge in San Francisco, Debbie Matthews for your twins got sent down.

For Mick Abel, if I'm not mistaken, Dylan Cruz, Logan Henderson and Peyton Toley also were optioned as well.

Anyone you want to single out there?

Bryce, Bryce Eldridge is kind of an interesting name.

He's been seemingly a guy that's been a little without a position.

Now that they brought in Rafael Devers, that corner infield slot, it's going to be a little tricky.

And no one really knows exactly what's going on there.

I think he's, he's an interesting name to keep in the back of the mind.

Certainly later in the season, likely going to be an injury call up.

And maybe if he performs well, he'll stick around.

Jason Dominguez, obviously him getting sent down is a surprise.

But of course, as we know, the Yankees, you once stand and goes down in two weeks, will be, will be called up quite shortly.

And maybe the most interesting one for me, Dylan Cruz, my goodness.

Woof!

Yeah.

Yeah, Dylan Cruz was drafted in any league that I had partaken in drafting before that news broke.

And he has since been dropped in every league that he was drafted and that I'm a part of as well.

I don't think he's worth stashing if you have an NA spot.

He hasn't shown anything in the major leagues.

We talked about that.

I think Dominguez getting optioned is the biggest one there, not because, as you can see, if you're watching, I have my Yankee had on 2008 All-Star Game Patch.

But it's because he had an electric spring at the plate.

And Trent Grisham did not, Trent Grisham had like a regular Trent Grisham season at the plate.

He hit very poorly.

But, and Dominguez was great.

However, the defense for Dominguez is the problem, which is why he was sent down.

For everyday playing time, it's fine.

I'm sure, like you said, he'll be up in two weeks.

We both checked our watches.

We checked our watches that we're not wearing.

I am wearing a watch.

Oh, I'm not.

They are Yankee's colors on the watch too.

It's a gray and a navy.

I am very much into it today.

So that doesn't feel like the normal captain's report.

Here's the special edition.

We have our season predictions here.

We've got our MVP, Sa Young, rookie of the year, and our World Series winner.

First up, we have our MVP.

We have our main picks and our dark horse picks for each one of these categories.

What we're not going to do is pick the obvious.

Neither one of us are going to pick Judge or Otani for our MVP candidates for this season.

So first up, we have our main picks for MVP.

Carson, who are the two names that you have?

One for the American, one for the National League.

For my American League pick, it's not like the craziest, but I think it's...

He's just so dynamic.

You have to mention him.

Bobby Wood Jr.

showed this world baseball classic.

He is Derek, say, the best defensive shortstop in baseball.

He adds that spectacular glove to a tool set that comprises phenomenal contactability.

It's a pretty strong power, a little more home run ability in Kaufman, by the way, this year.

And not to mention really good base dealing.

He's an all-around dynamic player.

He's the third best player in baseball.

And I think he could give even a healthy judge a run for his money.

If, you know, for whatever reason something goes down, I think he's a sensational bet.

The other guy, maybe someone who would have been an MVP front runner a few years ago,

is Fernando Tati's Jr.

And I think he's been bubbling under that big electric ear that we saw a few years ago from him.

He's obviously hyper athletic.

He is a dynamic force wherever he goes.

And if he gets on a hot stretch in that last, you know, like a Mookie Betts went on a hot stretch a couple years ago,

that made the MVP race a little more interesting in the NL.

He goes on one of those and has a really strong defensive season, graded and right.

Absolutely.

I think he's got a great shot.

I am going to pick in the American League.

A guy who has kind of carried his team to the playoffs multiple years in a row.

To a team that just, he just, yes, very much to your surprise.

He does hail from the American League Central.

This is a guy who goes wildly underappreciated.

He is wildly underpaid as well.

That is Jose Ramirez.

I'm going to take as my American League MVP pick.

The only reason I think Jay Ram hasn't won it is because judge isn't the American League.

You know, it's just unfortunate.

Oh, Tony with the Angels, of course.

Yes.

Yeah.

So poor Jay Ram has never taken home the hardware for MVP.

But he is the reason Cleveland is competitive offensively.

So I'm going to take Jay Ram.

And then in the National League, I'm taking a guy who came back from his second major knee injury in the middle of last season.

And just hit the cover off the ball showed that no ill effects.

I'm going to take Ronald Ducunia as my National League MVP.

He's just phenomenal.

He's just on another level.

He really is.

So moving on to Dark Horse, Carson.

Who is your Dark Horse American League and National League candidate for MVP?

For my dark horses.

I mean, these are always interesting to talk about dark horses for MVP.

And it's always a sort of question of how off the wall do I want to get?

And this one isn't that crazy.

But folks, why Langford had a great year last year.

He's very young.

He's about as young as I am in a video.

People, you know, that about how young I am.

23 on birthday last week.

And.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Eric.

This is a better birthday present than anything I got that day.

Baseball is back.

Anyway, why Langford really talented, really excellent.

He had a really good year last year.

If he kicks it up a notch, I think he could absolutely tear everything up.

And I don't even know how many times we've mentioned him on the podcast by now.

If I had a nickel, we would have about 60 cents.

Catel Marte in the National League.

He is so good.

If he plays 160 games, which is not very likely.

If it happens, I mean, he's been an MVP consideration before back in 2019, even a couple of years ago.

Just one of the best hitters in baseball straight up.

And that at second base is going to drive the war up the roof.

I love the Langford pick.

I'm a big Wyatt Langford fan.

Unfortunately in all of my leagues, he did not fall to me.

He was definitely someone guys were reaching for in drafts more on that in a minute.

I'm going to take our course picks for MVP in the American League.

I'm going to take Nick Kurtz carries the athletics to a playoff birth hits.

Let's just say 50 homers.

300, not out of the realm of possibility.

I like the athletics this year.

And we're not going to actually talk about like that.

They're not making my word serious picks, guys.

But like I think the athletics are going to be a fun team.

They've got a lot of cool bats and Nick Kurtz, man.

Why a season?

The only thing I think that's going to hold back the athletics this year is that pitching is not very good.

And then of course they play in a minor league ballpark, but they're hitting is actually really good.

I they have a they have a major league lineup now.

You know, you couldn't say that a couple of years ago about them, but they very much have a competitive major league lineup.

My national league pick is going to be none other than EDLC, Ellie Dela Cruz.

Okay, look, this man had what many consider a down year last year.

He was playing through a torn quad and he was playing through the death of his, I believe it was his sister.

And this guy didn't miss a game.

He just kept going now.

Okay, he did not steal 60 some odd bases.

That's fine. He still hit 22 home runs.

He still had a very good season through a torn quad and a death in the family.

A close death.

Take that stuff out of the equation, put on 10 pounds of muscle.

EDLC is going to carry Cincinnati to a playoff birth this year.

May that hint at my world series pick.

I don't know.

Stay tuned for that.

Moving on to say young.

We are again, like we didn't pick Otani and we didn't pick judge.

We are going to not pick schemes and we're not going to pick school to obvious.

And dare I say I say I don't think we're going to pick crochet.

Yeah, I was going to say.

Yeah, none of those none of the orcas.

Yeah.

So we are going to first start with our main picks for Sion Carson.

Who do you have in the American and nationally in the American league?

I've got your guy taken the mound tonight.

And maybe he did so terribly in which case I'm going to look a little city.

I think Max Fried on a rate basis has been just one of the best pictures in baseball

from a run for bench and standpoint in a while.

And you know, maybe he just turns it up a notch.

I mean, that's what it's going to take.

Honestly, to have any of these guys win the awards over the main stays or something else to happen.

But I think Max Fried has been consistently excellent.

And like I think about freed.

And he's always seen like he's been second fiddle to some of the really big talents wherever he's been.

But also just in in general and baseball.

But he's been sensational for years now.

Sorry, the thing that concerns me about freed is the blister.

Because last year he was on Sion trajectory.

And the blister kind of derailed his season there for a little bit in like July and August.

And then he's had forum scares in the past.

So I'm a little worried as a Yankee fan see the hat.

Well, he's playing in the Bronx now.

He'll have thicker skin.

That's a blister Joe ladies and gentlemen.

Not the blister job.

Who is your nationally pick?

My national league pick is Logan Webb who led the national league and strikeouts last year.

Who has consistently been one of the better pitchers in baseball.

And I just think he's got more swing and mess stuff now than he has in years.

And he's more than just a guy that gets a 60 something ground ball.

Right.

I think San Francisco's defense has gone from like horrible in a few years ago to really, really great.

With the dumbest with young who Lee.

They've got Chapman on the corner and of course patch Bailey behind the dish.

Love him.

Just love him.

I love Logan Webb to death.

I will come on him to a bit.

He's on all my teams because I love the guy so much.

I think he gets this hardware maybe.

And he starts tonight against the Yankees.

My main picks.

My main picks for Sa Young in the American league.

I'm going to take Logan Gilbert.

I've been a Logan Gilbert guy since he got the call.

Strikeout numbers took a step forward last year, even though we did miss some time with a forearm scare.

The innings will be there as long as he's healthy.

I think Seattle is a very good team.

I think Logan Gilbert has a very good chance of taking home the hardware this season.

And then over in the national league, this pains me just because of the team he plays for.

But I'm going to pick Freddie Peralta because he has been wildly consistent over the course of his career.

If you read our content on pitcherless.com, you know Nick Pollock calls him professor chaos.

But Freddie Peralta, I really do think is going to have a stellar season in Queens for the Metz.

And I really like him taking home the national week hardware for Sa Young dark horse Carson.

American and national league.

Take it away.

I'm turning back to clock a little bit for these guys.

My American league pick is going to be Jacob DeGrom.

Still weird. He's in the American league.

And my national league pick is Sandy Alcantara.

Alcantara, I don't, I still don't know.

Alcantara.

Is it Alcantara?

Fantastic.

I'm taking him.

Jacob DeGrom last year had 30 starts at the 172 innings if I recall correctly.

And he was really good.

He was really good.

And it was a kind of year where I think if you're a little bearish on DeGrom,

I'm going to say some of his bad at ball against metrics weren't fantastic.

The VLO dropped a little bit.

The strikeouts were down.

If you're bullish though, you can say he was probably a little uncomfortable early on.

And I, I think he kind of was pacing themselves, making sure he could.

I think a second year coming back from this could be fantastic.

He's up there in age, but just the pitch ability and control command he has is borderline unmatched across baseball.

And then Sandy, if you, this may sound a little weird because you didn't say any like a five and a half year.

Yeah.

But he also on a like per pitch basis, everything graded out well.

I think it was an off year firm in a similar sense where he was coming back from injury or being banged up in Sandy's case and things were just odd.

But what do you look for when a pitcher comes back?

So velocity good.

Yep.

Is the movement good?

Yep.

Is the locations pretty solid?

Honestly for Sandy.

Yeah.

Kind of was.

I just think things didn't click.

Yeah.

Look, it's tough to bet against the two former Saiyung winners.

And I really like your digram take there.

Big, big, big fan mostly because I'm heavily invested in him.

So hopefully he does well and stays healthy, knocks on wood.

My, my Dark Horse picks for American League and nationally Saiyung are Kyle Bradish in the American League.

When he's healthy, he is an ace period.

Yeah.

Done.

Like no more analysis really needed.

He is so good coming off Tommy John surgery.

He, this is, we saw him at the end of last season.

Now we're going to see him for a full season coming off the surgery.

I just think he is primed, especially with that Orioles team.

That whole team is primed for bounce back.

I think Bradish is just a great Dark Horse candidate that you wouldn't necessarily automatically think of.

When you think of Saiyung winner in the American League.

And then moving over to the National League, I'm going to take Nick Pavetta.

Want to talk Dark Horse like a guy who's only one time in his career had an ERA under four.

That was last season.

He didn't go anywhere.

He's still pitching in San Diego.

You know, he's just maybe found something.

So let's talk about Dark Horse.

Why not Nick Pavetta yet an ERA sub three last year.

I like it.

He was, he's always had kind of gnarly stuff, but hasn't been able to quite make it work.

I think, yeah, I can see it.

Moving on to rookie of the year.

Carson, your main picks in the National League in the American League.

Going to be no one McLean, man.

Oh, yeah.

I'm not saying, um, with, I mean, he is so fun.

And I, I'm not even like the most bullish guy on him.

There are many people that I think he is like not just like the real deal,

but like we could talk about him for the Saiyung stuff.

But I think it's tremendous confidence that he went out in the world baseball classic,

pitched honestly pretty good.

There during that start against Venezuela.

And also just being able to break camp as a rookie, join a Mets rotation.

That's going to have huge expectations.

Uh, I think, yeah, absolutely.

If he performs, uh, he, he's got the stuff to it's going to be a matter of he can put it everything together.

And since they healthy, I think he's got it.

Um, and then in the American League, I'm going to break some rules and pick two.

Kevin McGonagill is a very boring pick, but a very good one.

I think because he's going to probably play every day for a Detroit.

A Detroit Tigers lineup that is not terribly good.

And then I'm going to take Samuel Pasallo who will probably get there.

I say, um, I would be very optimistic on that.

The fact that he's a qualified bit hitter this year, which for a catcher,

a guy with catcher eligibility and stuff is pretty rare.

But with Pasallo, I think he's going to have a lot of DH first base date.

Well, I'm probably not first base because beat a lot of DH days.

Um, he's going to get some workload in him.

The bat speed ridiculous.

He's got so much raw and game power.

I like him.

I actually think Pasallo.

And we didn't really talk about this during the spring as we were going through all our players in our position previews.

Pasallo has a very good chance of getting first base eligibility because if you think about it, he's going to catch behind.

Uh, Richmond.

And then when they want to give Alonzo a DH day, he's going to play first base.

Yeah.

So and otherwise, he's going to be the starting, uh, doesn't need a hitter.

And I saw a side by side video of him and your dawn Alvarez swing.

It was like a spinning image.

Let me tell you, Basallo has predator natural abilities with the bat.

And I just think he is, uh, I, you wrote him down before I could.

Let's put it that way.

Yeah, he's so much fun.

Uh, I, I took aim.

Actually, you know what?

I'll save this for our next segment segment.

I took aim at Basallo.

And I'll tell you, it wasn't for catcher.

So that's a little tease.

Stay tuned.

I'll explain that more a little bit later.

My rookie of the year, main picks are if he can stay healthy.

That's literally the only asterisk to me because you picked Basallo first and McGonagal.

For the American League is I'm going to pick Chase De Lauder.

Chase De Lauder has the opportunity to hit behind or in front of Jose Ramirez.

He has really good basketball skills.

The only issue he's had is for the last five years.

That includes the minors and college.

He has not been able to stay healthy.

And it has been a foot injury.

That's been, uh, his kind of downfall.

He was a very highly rated prospect, uh, in the Cleveland system.

He's made the team coming out of spring training.

He had a very good spring.

He hits the ball incredibly hard.

I'm a big fan of Chase De Lauder.

Again, if you can stay healthy.

In the National League, I mean, if I had a nickel every time I mentioned him in the spring,

I would also have 60 cents.

J J weather hole for St. Louis.

I think he's going to be the best hero on that team.

Period.

This season.

I think.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Other than Avon Herrera, who's going to be a better hitter than him?

My guy.

All right.

Fine.

We'll go.

JJ weather hole, uh, as the National League rookie of the year Carson dark horse.

Rookie of the year.

Go for it.

Uh, and the American league.

I'm going to have a.

Another Baltimore.

Oral.

I'm going to say Dylan Bevers.

Big.

Strong.

He's going.

He's.

I think it's what six five lefty.

I just want to pop.

Um, he's.

He's.

He's like someone that I was looking at through draft season and, um,

it's just thinking like this guy, I think on a rate basis is so good.

And if he's able to be as effective as I think he could be with the bat,

he's going to force his way into that lineup.

And I think he could just tear it up.

The question may be defense.

And if there's a place for him.

But, um, I think he's a really fun sleeper for rookie of the year.

And even just in general fantasy.

And then my second pick is going to be the guy that isn't really that much of a sleeper.

But absolutely everyone should roster him.

Sal Stewart, ladies and gentlemen.

Sal Stewart is so good.

I don't have too much analysis to say about that.

Um, you talked about the reds earlier.

Here's a red that I think is fantastic.

There is a pretty decent chance.

I'm not going to say like it's a great chance.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sal Stewart's the most valuable player on the reds this year.

I could.

I could 100%.

You see what he's, he's, he's just so exciting.

And there's so much hype around him.

And I think, yeah, I can buy it 100%.

Good bat to ball skills hits the ball really hard makes a lot of contact.

Loud contact is another way of saying the two things I said before that.

Uh, and he's got a path to every day at bats and he plays in great American small park.

Uh, I love Sal Stewart, man.

He was a target of mine also through draft season.

My dark horse candidates.

I'm going to start in the National League for a reason here.

I know we've been going American League National League, but I'm going to start in the National League.

I'm going to say Andrew painter, former like number one pitching prospect in baseball,

went down, needed Tommy John surgery at 19 years old, could throw 100 miles an hour.

Now he's sitting more in the high 90s, 96, 97, can touch 98.

Still has nasty stuff had a very good spring.

And I mean, are you really going to, if you're feeling going to have Taiwan Walker in the starting rotation over Andrew painter.

Andrew painter did make the rotation coming out of spring.

Zach Wheeler, of course, starting on the injured list.

I'm going to go Andrew painter.

I just think, you know, like some guys, yes.

Okay. So he went through Tommy John.

He's not throwing as hard, but like this guy was considered like a pitching prodigy.

I just, I think he's going to figure it out.

Plus Zach Wheeler is his teammate who can teach him how to actually pitch instead of just throwing it by people.

And I think that's important too, especially when you have diminished velocity that I put in quotes here,

because he still throws 97.

Okay.

Now my American League pick.

And I saved this one for last on purpose because when Carson and I were putting this together behind the scenes, he looked at me like,

are you sure about this one?

And I said, well, there's no darker, darker horse candidate here.

And I'm going to pick a guy who is 19 years old, plays for the Oakland athletics, not Oakland.

I get the athletics baseball club, whatever they're called these days, the Sacramento minor league stadium athletics.

I'm going to go with Leo device as my dark horse rookie of the year.

This guy had an incredible spring.

And I have his stats right here.

I flew under the radar in 18 games during the spring as a 19 year old.

And it reminds you, he was the centerpiece of the Mason Miller trade last year.

Three homers, 10 runs scored, 12 RBI, four stolen bases.

Okay.

Cool.

He put up numbers.

Here's what I like.

20% strikeout rate.

426 batting average.

Yes, that came with a 500 bat bit.

But he hit the ball.

He was not overmatched in 19.

He can, he can, man, can he feel his position too?

He's got quite the leather on on his left hand.

I love Leo device, especially long term dynasty leaguers out there.

If he for some reason is not rostered put.

Go get him now.

I was going to say put us down, but we're probably playing on your phone.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Go get him.

Keep your legs.

Your stashes.

I think he's phenomenal.

There's a very good chance that we see him later this year.

That's why he's the darkest of dark horse picks.

All right.

So we've gone through rookie of the year.

We've gone through say young and we've gone through MVP.

Now we're going to go and now keep in mind Carson and I have not revealed this next part to each other.

Who are world series winners are.

And we're going to tell you the world series of American league pennant winner nationally pennant winner.

And then how many games we think the winner of the world series is going to be.

And we did our best.

Or at least I did my best.

I can't speak for Carson.

I don't know.

I didn't see his picks to not pick the Dodgers and the Yankees.

So Carson, who is your world series picked this season?

Well, my world series pick.

I'll have to break it to you.

I think it looks long and hard at the national league.

And with all credit to like the men's with all credit to.

I think the Cubs have a pretty good chance and some stuff.

Listen, I got to be honest.

I the Dodgers are making it this year.

I went.

I know I know what listen listen.

I thought long and hard about it.

I really did.

I was going back and forth and I was like, they got they added Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz.

I mean, I got pushes it over the edge for me.

There's so much there I had to.

But.

But in six games, I have the Dodgers losing to the Boston Red Sox.

To the Boston Red Sox on the backs of Derek Crochet, Sonny Gray and a really excellent young team that has to name Raphael in center field.

Very, very good and real life defensively.

Roman Anthony Roman.

I write field, I believe a left right.

I forget.

He roams the corner outfield and a just general team that's really solid all around.

I like the Boston Red Sox when the pitching, I think is going to get it done or oldest Chapman looked sensational last year.

I believe in him this year because the guy has a rubber arm.

Red Sox of the Dodgers in six games.

I'm sorry.

I mean this lovingly, but your picks make me want to vomit.

I do.

I that hurts my soul Carson.

Okay, so like I said, I made a really good effort not to pick the Dodgers.

I'm not here to make friends Eric.

I'm here.

I did really hard not to pick the Dodgers in the Yankees.

So I went, I went totally different.

I picked the American League winner to be Seattle, which is not a far fetch pick.

I don't think I was so close to saying Seattle.

And I went with the National League pick.

Now I teased it earlier.

I picked the Cincinnati Reds in the National League.

That's so fun.

And I yeah, it's a fun pick.

It's a fun pick.

It's a, you know, I got to give you credit.

That's a fun pick.

So you know what?

I think we can understand the, the Mariners.

Obviously they were, I got like a few runs away from the big dance last year.

The Reds.

How do they do it?

How?

Hunter Green comes back mid season after having the debris removed from his elbow.

That's the only injury he has this season.

He is the ace that we all thought he was going to be.

South Stewart is a rookie of the year candidate.

EDLC is an MVP candidate.

And AU Henniel Suarez hits 40 home runs while hitting 230.

Not 200.

I think that's 30 points of batting average.

A bit, a bit different there.

And so I think Cincinnati has a outside chance of actually being pretty decent and competing

to go to the World Series.

That being said Seattle in six.

Wow.

All right.

So we're catching.

Erick saying Seattle over the Reds four games to two.

And I have the Red socks over the Dodgers four games to two.

In six months, do feel free to write us in and call us very silly or very intelligent,

depending on how these picks went.

Yeah.

I will say this.

Do I think Seattle Cincinnati is going to be the World Series?

Probably not.

But I want to have fun with the pace.

I can see it.

It's not.

It's not like I said, the pirates and the ace, which probably not going to happen.

You know, that would be a fun.

You're so fun.

Either way, I don't think Major League Baseball would like my, my picks for World Series.

Because I don't think the ratings would be very high.

Anyway, those are our World Series picks.

Those are our rookie of the year picks.

Those are our Sion picks and those are our MVP picks.

If you stay with us, which I hope you do, when we come back, we are going to talk about

our draft results and kind of just discuss the players that we ended up drafting the most.

So stay tuned.

We'll be right back.

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Welcome back to the show is the pod design specifically for all you 10 team and smaller managers out there.

We have set sale. It is opening day. The season has started.

That means draft season, basically over.

I guess you can get your drafts in now and kind of miss maybe the first week, but that's alright.

We think most people got them in on time.

So we're going to talk about our draft results who we ended up with on our teams in general.

I did more drafts this year than I probably ever have done.

I like to keep it to two this year. I'm in four and there might be a fifth.

So Carson, tell us a little bit about some of the players that you ended up drafting a lot of.

I typically focus on a few leagues. I'm not a guy that plays in like 12 leagues.

I just can't do it. You say, oh God, there are people that do in this podcast network.

And I can do maybe four at most really, but I like to keep my attention only to one or two.

And that's no different this year. I'm in about two. I'm in a best ball and a regular league.

But in both of those, I got Catelle Martin in the second round and James were in the third.

Those two guys, I just felt at their position. I had to take.

And I took Logan Webb. I took Jacob to Graham.

And I took, I got a perdomo in the sixth round.

And we were talking a little back and forth about, you know, what the right price is for him and how early he was going.

I was in a sixth round in a 12 teamer. So not quite a shallow league, but airing on the shallower side for this range.

You can do the math if you want.

Initially, I got both chase burns and Nolan McLean because I have to I have this.

What was really interesting for me was was navigating the later rounds, which is always weird.

But all this time thinking and and different movements, pictures coming back.

The resurgence of Garrett Cole kind of threw things off. And you know what?

In the 15th round, I said, I've, I've met my, my, my measure for risk.

And I took 15 ground, Garrett Cole, a member of the Carson team.

That's amazing.

I generally, yeah.

Last thing I'm going to say, I generally like to take some guys.

I'm confident maybe early in the draft. I do like to have some entry stashes and guys that I can get a lot later that I miss a month for, especially in head to head leagues where I can not punch the first few weeks.

But I'm saying if I can go 500 the first four weeks and get some value later, those playoff rounds, I'm doing a Dodger strategy.

Basically.

No, I agree. And we talked about that draft the aisle stashes late.

If you can or make them like you, maybe if you had one, let's say you drafted one aisle stash.

And you put them on the aisle when whatever platform you're on finally decided to change the status to the injured list.

Or actually, you know, they kind of wait for Major League baseball to do it.

But let's say that player flipped to the aisle, you put them on your aisle spot.

Well, now you have it a free roster spot.

This happened to me in one league. I only had one aisle stash. I put that put this player on the aisle.

And then I was able to pick up another aisle player put them on the aisle.

And then I was able to fill the needs that I needed to from free agents after that. So I think it's a really important thing to do, especially in head to head category weekly leagues or daily, daily, daily mover leagues, but like if you're playing, you know, we on a week to week basis against your opponent.

To do that because you're going to have quite the performer later in the season, you know, Hunter Green went very late in a lot of my drafts.

As an injury stash, he is going to be back this season. So that was he was a very good injury stash a swell and Bach went undrafted in the same vein, which I thought was interesting.

He was the guy that I picked up off the wire, but I ended up with a lot of Jackson holiday, because this was the cheapest price he was going to be at, I think.

I ended up with a lot of to tell Marta as well, just because second base terrible. He's our guy favorite of the pod. If we could get him on this pod, that would be incredible.

Also, I also ended up with a lot of Tyler Soderstrum. I thought he was a really good value at first base, just because some people were, they were grabbing the high end first base been very early.

And I thought, okay, well, who's got the chance to kind of jump tears. I thought Soderstrum was a very good pick to do that. And he didn't cost that much.

And I also ended up with, I'm going to name two more guys Samuel Bessio was a guy ended up with a lot and I tease this earlier in the show. I was not afraid to draft Bessio as a utility player.

Yeah.

And in the same vein, I did the same thing with Ivan Herrera. I'm not afraid to use either one of those guys as utility players, because I think their back transcends the catcher position to where they are going to be helpful, no matter what.

Herrera and Bessio are both going to play designated hitter. Bessio is going to play first base. And then I just think you're going to get good value out of them in your utility spot, especially if you have two utilities.

Normally, if you have one I like to put outfielder there, we kind of discuss that in one of our first two shows of the season. But I just thought at the value I could get those guys, they were beside was kind of forgotten in most of my drafts. And I don't know how.

And then the last name I will name and I've named all hitters at this point. This one, too, is your guy Byron Bustin. I ended up with a lot of Bustin shares. People are afraid of the injury. It just in the fifth or sixth round, 30, 30 upside to 65 batting average, 100 runs, 100 are like, how could you turn that down?

I mean, listen, you're preaching the choir. I love Buck. I love him so much. Yeah, I mean, it sounds kind of silly. Who do we got? It's a lot of the guy who you've been talking about. But what was the weirdest pick for you? How about that? Which one did you get?

That was that was like, maybe uncomfortable. Maybe you're like, I'll go for this guy. Sure.

Oh, man. Okay. So that's a great question. I drafted. I don't know if I so much have like a sure I'll go for this guy type because to me, it was Bustin initially, because I normally shy away from guys with such heavy injury histories.

I'll say that my sure I'll go for this guy was Ryan Pepeo. Yeah, I know. Look, I know he just ended up on the IL before the season with hip inflammation. The razor saying it won't be long stay. However, you can believe the race, right. But I thought the move back into the trap would be helpful for him.

And maybe he would just accumulate a little more value than he did last year. And I think where I drafted him was also really good and I'll tell you in a second, I drafted him in the 10th round of a keeper league.

So which 50 players were kept and the way they're kept that 10th round is really like the 15th round.

So I thought it was a really good value to get Pepeo who could be a good, you know, back into the rotation picture. And if he doesn't work out, he doesn't work out. But that was like the I am, I don't like this, but I'm going to do it. Type pick.

Yeah. How about you? Same question to you.

I had a little weird turn at the, I was picking fourth, right. So I'm a fourth and a 12 teamer. So a little kind of a slight.

Yeah, it's honestly, I kind of like it. But it was right. Well, first round, I got wet, which, you know, felt a four, huh? Yeah, yeah.

You know, write it off, send it home. Okay. It's an on base percentage league. But, um, so, you know, Soto. But, uh, yeah. I ended up taking the 12th and 13th rounds. I took Spencer Torquison and Wilson Contreras, which for me are just two guys I don't take.

I don't think I've ever had a share in either of them. And they were Torquison. I've never been that confident. I was like, okay, I can play with the ratios a little bit. And then Contreras also was like, I think you'll be good.

I think you'll be good in Boston. And those are weird. Those are weird to me. I took a role. This Chapman the round before that too. It's wish, um, I just believe in it. Again, three guys. I don't think I've ever had a share of maybe Chapman for like half a year. But in the several years I've been playing fantasy baseball. So that was that was uncharted territory.

Uncharted waters. Nice. Notical turn there. I had. Okay. So this is actually the weirdest story of all my drafts that happened. Uh, we're doing a slow draft on clicky draft or whatever.

Yeah. I've never drafted on there before. Show Hayotani was the first overall pick. We're going through this. It's actually the pitcherless community league. We're going through this draft. And all of a sudden we get to like the, I don't know, eighth or ninth round.

And I noticed, you know, who wasn't drafted yet, hmm, pitcher. Show Hayotani. Yeah.

Because he wasn't in the player pool. So I was the lesson to everyone out there. Look at the player pool pay attention. Look at your league settings. Okay.

Because there were some picks that happened where it was like, well, pitchers aren't that valuable in this league or relief pitchers aren't valuable at all because saves plus holds really diminishes the value of relievers because a set up man can be more valuable than Mason Miller just saying it happened last year at Nuri Rebay.

So I was looking and I noticed like, there's no pitcher O'Connie in the pitching in the in the pool on this little clicky draft site.

So I messaged the commissioner and I got show Hayotani pitcher in like the eighth round. I got my number two, possibly my number one pitcher that late in the draft. It was phenomenal. That was the weirdest thing to happen.

That's fun. I'm curious. We haven't talked about O'Connie as a pitcher at all. We haven't really talked about show Hayot because like, you know, but yeah.

But show Hayotani is a pitcher is going to be really interesting this year. How many innings do you think he throws?

140 to 150.

That's kind of my I'm a little light. I think it's going to be more 130 140 range, but I think like 135. That's kind of where my guts at.

Yeah, I could see that. But with we've never seen show show Hayotani the pitcher be in like of no value. He's always been very good as a pitcher.

He's a hitter. He had a couple seasons where we were like, is can he really hit? And then obviously he had the injury season where he had 55 on run stole 50 bases.

And so we're like, oh, he's actually like a ridiculous hitter. But he's always been a phenomenal pitcher.

And we saw the villa was there last year when he came back from Tommy John, his second Tommy John.

Yes, the Dodgers are going to be very careful with him. They don't want him to miss time because then he missed time with that.

I think I think you're looking at 140 to 150 innings with 180 plus strikeouts and an ERA somewhere around three.

You're looking at basically Tyler glass now.

Like a healthy Tyler, that's a healthy Tyler glass now season.

That's what I really think you're going to get at a pitcher O'Tani, but you're right. We haven't really talked about him much.

Any weird stories like that for you, like somebody took the, I think he was Cade Anderson or whoever the second pick in the draft was last year.

Oh, yeah, yeah.

Not in a dynasty league.

Yeah, thankfully, no one went quite that off the wall. I don't really know if there's anything super crazy. I'm trying to look right now.

Chris sale in the second at the very end of the second.

Like it was pretty high and I got some interesting reactions, probably the biggest reach of the draft in my eyes.

Six months, he's going to win another sign on, but for the most part, pretty, pretty ordinary, which is fine.

Nothing too crazy.

But I'm happy. I'm happy.

Yeah, I'm happy with how my teams turned out as well.

One question for you.

I know we're like through draft season here, but in a keeper league, not dynasty, and we're talking shallow keeper leagues, right?

So we're talking like 220, 240 players.

I kept, you could keep six and they get slotted in in like the first six draft rounds.

I kept all hitters.

Is that crazy?

I don't think it's crazy. I think when with pitchers, I mean, like you've got some guys, but I think generally that makes, that makes sense to me.

I don't, I don't want to give that crazy for doing that, Eric.

I think you're very, you're very anti-pitcher early. I know that.

So any, any chance you get to short a pitcher, you'll take it, but I, I think that's all right.

What hitters?

Buckle up.

No, boy.

Kyle Tucker.

Yep.

I'm a Laconia.

Okay.

Austin Riley.

Matt Olson.

Wyatt Langford.

Cal Raleigh.

Yeah.

All right.

Fair enough.

Fair enough.

I let Mookie go.

I had Mookie for the last few years.

I let Mookie go and kept Raleigh instead.

And I, uh, I also, uh, had, uh, poor, perdomo on that roster last year.

Geez.

Couldn't find a trade partner, which was weird, uh, for some teams in this league that don't have keepers of that nature.

But, uh, what I thought that was really helpful to do is set up a, basically, I need pitchers strategy.

So I aimed for pitcher early in the draft, because I had six hitters already set.

Um, and diverse positions too.

So I like that.

Yeah.

Okay.

Yeah.

I always get worried because generally, maybe, you know, five hitters, one pitcher, but, uh, I ended up with, uh, Peralta and Yuri Perez as my one, too.

Sure.

Yeah.

Nice.

Yeah, I can't, can't really complain there.

Uh, Bubba Chandler on that roster now.

Okay.

Okay.

Keeper League.

Um, saves plus hold.

So, uh, you know, believers not really, not really worth much.

Do you have any keeper dynasty leagues where, uh, you made maybe an interesting decision like letting mookie bets go?

Uh, well, I don't play any keeper leads.

I'm sorry.

I do have my dynasty league.

I don't think there's anything really that crazy.

And, you know, it's a shallow league.

This is a 14 team dynasty league.

It's not too, uh, interesting.

I am reminded I need a trade for a first baseman.

So maybe I'll do that.

Yeah.

I need to do that quick.

I'm, I'm flipping through it right now.

I'm looking at who I got and what it is.

And thankfully no drum on my end.

That's good.

That's good.

Yeah.

So we'll check in with our teams throughout the season.

I think it'd be really helpful to kind of give our experience to you guys.

The listeners or the viewers.

If you're watching us on YouTube and, uh, really see how we're managing our teams.

What decisions we have to make.

Not just, oh, there's this guy.

Let me go pick him up.

Well, generally speaking, unless he's filling in for somebody that you put on the IL,

you have to make a drop.

And I can't wait to actually talk about that and to make the hard decisions.

Because in shallow leagues, yes, there's going to be players available on the wire.

But is the opportunity cost to drop the guy that you have worth it?

Because someone can scoop them up.

Uh, a little bit easier than some, uh, some deeper leagues.

So we will talk about that as the season goes on.

But when we come back, our new segment charting the course,

where we have some, uh, news and don'ts for the weeks ahead.

So stay tuned.

We'll be right back.

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Welcome back to the shallows.

The brand new segment we have for you charting the course,

some do's and don'ts as we head into the first weeks of the season.

We're just going to rattle through these for you,

give you why it's a do and why it's a don't.

So Carson, first up, we have do care about bat speed.

Why carrying about bat speed is important because bat speed is just crucial

to slugging crucial tip,

even just stuff like batting average and carrying about big fall offs

and fall offs and rises up, you know what I'm saying.

There's no, we're 15 minutes in all right.

The verbiage doesn't need to be perfect.

Either way, batting bat speed is very, very important

and it stabilizes very, very quickly in the span of a week.

You're going to know pretty much that average bat speed.

It's not going to flip around that much.

And so early on here,

if someone's looking way better than they were last year, jump at that.

And vice versa.

Don't care about lineup position.

Why lineup position?

And this is also one that depends on the manager.

And I'm speaking a little bit from twins experience here.

We're Rocco Bell daily used to shift around the lineup pretty much daily.

And so some some managers do it.

Some managers you put them in pen and especially with your non-mainstay guys.

Don't get some guys you put them in pen at the top of the lead off position.

That's fine.

But if they're going to vary, especially early on,

it could drop anywhere from, you know, someone could be hitting clean up.

Next day, they're hitting eighth.

And that's completely irrelevant of platoon matchups and stuff either.

So I don't think you should care that much about it.

Maybe a little bit on the very ends of the spectrum.

Someone's hitting ninth.

They're usually pretty low down there.

But if someone's hitting seventh or eighth,

I really don't think you should care that much.

Here's an example.

Sal Stewart is set to start the season as the cleanup hitter most likely for the reds.

Will that last will it not?

I don't know.

Tito Frankona was just playing around with lineups at the end of spring training.

It would be great for his fantasy value if it did.

Did not think about drafting him just because he was supposed to hit fourth.

I'm looking more at the holistic player rather than where they're batting in the lineup.

Do look at fastball below spikes and dips.

Why?

Yeah, this is something that like bat speed is just it's important.

It stabilizes quickly.

And as someone's looking really good with their velocity or looking really bad with their

velocity, that's just I don't think it should be an instant drop if someone normally sitting

95 is sitting 93.

But it's something to really keep an eye on.

And if that persists, you know, I don't think it's important to look at that for veterans in spring training.

For instance, his spring training is weird and veterans just kind of use it to tinker with stuff.

But for that first week with one caveat we'll get to fastball

below is just something you should pay attention to.

Don't look at opening day velocity spikes.

Watch ran a Lynn opening day starters in these guys.

They have the ball.

They're out there and the it's it's huge, right?

This is a oftentimes a landmark start for these guys and it's going to be big.

If they're sitting a tick up, don't look at that.

That's a sample that is not trustworthy.

Similar to how some guys have amplified Velo in the postseason, just cool it for a moment.

Second start if it's still there, be more interested.

First opening day and just opening day.

Not the first start of the year for these guys, but just opening day, pump the brakes.

Do look at pitch mix.

Why?

Some new pitches can be really interesting how they use pitches.

If they have an increased usage of a sinker against varieties, for instance,

or a change up anything like that, that can really be interesting to see how much

an arsenal shifts year to year.

And if that's conducive, two more success in a small sample like this,

it can be, you know, we're talking about the first week or so here, right?

In a small sample that can be a little interesting and shift throughout the year.

But if a guy's getting a ton of whiffs with the sweeper and he keeps using that sweeper more,

you know, be heavily interested.

Don't look at swaying strike percentage for both hitters and pitchers. Why?

This is something that just takes a while to stabilize.

It's a great stat.

I like it a lot.

And especially, you know, paired with chase rate, this can be a really nice indicator

of a player's plate to spin their back control, everything like that.

But just this early, it is too noisy to be reliable.

Look elsewhere.

I'm just going to slot one thing in here real quick.

Who is the outfielder for the Orioles that has homer than like four or five consecutive?

It is Tyler O'Neill.

Tyler O'Neill, right.

Don't overreact to Tyler O'Neill moving on.

Do look at extreme babbip outliers. Why?

Because babbip is something that a takes a long time to stabilize.

And b is as I've written about and we'll have an article coming out next week.

We can wink wink wink nudge nudge.

Indeed.

Babbip is something that is super context dependent is super noisy.

And is something that needs a long time to stabilize.

And it's for pitchers.

It's dependent on kind of where you throw the ball for batters.

It's dependent on all sorts of different things.

And on a simple little and launchy on just these things that take too long in a week and a half.

You're not going to know.

So look at the outliers.

If someone's hitting 480 on their babbip, it's not going to sustain at all.

You should expect serious regression on the flip side.

If it's like a 120, it's going to go up.

It has to go up.

Be careful about context.

But look at the outliers.

Don't look at the length of start for pitchers returning from injury.

Why?

Because they're going to ramp up.

And for these guys, they want to be really cautious.

Remember, baseball is a marathon.

We're in March.

It's not a sprint.

Any of these guys returning from pretty serious injuries.

They're going to be really cautious because they don't want to flare out in the first lap.

So to speak of a hundred lap race.

Just again, pump the brakes.

Wait.

And it'll ramp up over time.

If they, if a pitchers coming from injury and they throw 65 pitches.

So all right.

Care about the stuff more than the volume.

You care about bullpen rolls.

Why?

Bullpen rolls.

Now, this is something that is manager dependent and this shifts a lot.

But generally, by this time, a manager has their closers and they've got their setup guys.

That's pretty, uh, pretty much locked in to an extent.

If there's really serious changes in their performance, things will shift.

But as long as nothing's crazy, uh, closes going to be a closer.

Yeah.

Uh, if you're in saves plus holds leagues, though, very important to see who is going to be the seventh eighth inning guy.

Who's going to collect those statistics.

And yes, that can change throughout the year.

The great thing is those players have lower value in those leagues.

So you could just add drop them kind of at will.

And our last one here.

Don't pay attention to stolen bases.

Why?

We actually looked this up before the show.

One Soto, uh, who had 38 stolen bases last year.

One so in the month of April and into March in 31 games had two stolen bases.

T W O number two.

Um, and, you know, stolen bases.

Sometimes guys, uh, there's too much noise.

You don't know some guys have base dealing habits that pick up over the year.

Sometimes they fall off over the year.

You know, there's a lot of worries happen if someone's feeling a little sore or some tender.

Even just not even getting on base that often.

These things are not sticky.

Don't care about it that early.

It steals guys are going to be still guys and you'll know who they are.

Anything else.

It's not worth paying attention to.

Um, at this stage in the season.

I will say this.

For stolen bases, maybe look at team context as a whole.

If the team is running less as a whole, you know, maybe.

You know, it's not worth paying attention to that, but don't over react.

Right?

Like Ellie's still going to run.

Guys are going to run who don't run.

It's April or March technically.

Uh, it's early.

It's still cold.

Maybe some guys don't want to pull the hammies.

You know, running early.

It's just, you know, things weird things happen in April.

Weird things you want to pay attention to.

Weird things you don't want to pay attention to.

But I'll say this.

Do not over react.

Period.

Early.

Simple as that.

You know, the one thing I will overreact to though.

Eric, it is dang good to have baseball back.

Oh, yeah.

Yeah, we can overreact to that 100%.

I love it.

It is so exciting.

Uh, by the time you're listening or watching this.

Games for every team will have taken place.

But tonight we've got Yankees giants.

Uh, as we're recording this, it's going to happen within a couple hours.

It's very exciting.

I am so looking forward to it.

Let's over react to baseball being back.

Every single day of the week.

Let's go.

All right.

That will do it for us.

We're going to wrap it up right there.

We'll be back next Friday with a brand new episode.

And remember the completely overhauled draft assistant,

which you should have been using is out there.

So if you have any drafts left.

Sign up for PL plus or PL pro.

And you'll get that if you have any drafts left.

But if not, good luck this season.

Don't overreact.

It's April technically March.

It's hard to say baseball March.

This is a new thing over the last couple of years.

But it is the beginning of the season.

This is an exciting time.

Don't overreact to what players are doing or not doing.

But do overreact to baseball being back.

To make sure you never miss an episode of this show, the shallows.

Please subscribe.

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He's Carson Picard at Carson Picard on Blue Sky.

I'm Eric Henryson at Eric him.

That's Eric with the K on Blue Sky or Twitter reminding you

that murky waters are fine.

If you know how to swim and if not,

we'll throw that little ring thing on the side of the boat to you

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See you next time in the shallows.

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