The Shallows EP 029 - Players We Got Wrong

0:00So if you've ever furnished a restaurant, hotel, or an office, you know the drill. Five vendors, five invoices, five delivery windows. But there's a better way to do this. Creighton Barrel Contract is a business to business program that covers three brands. Creighton Barrel, CB2, and Creighton Kids with one account, one order, one delivery. They've got durable plates and glasses, contract grade furniture, and lighting that looks custom that's built for the wear of busy space actually takes. And the best part is you're not doing it alone. A dedicated rep handles your project end to end, from volume orders to design curation. Plus, members get 20% off, tax exempt checkout, and flexible payment with no minimums. Learn more at Creightonbarrel.com slash podcast. That's Creightonbarrel.com slash podcast. Insurance isn't one size fits all. That's why drivers have enjoyed progressive's name your price tool for years now. With the name your price tool, you tell them what you want to pay, and they'll show you options that fit your budget. So whether you're picking out your first policy or just looking for something that works better for you and your family,

1:04they make it easy to see your options. Visit progressive.com, find a rate that works for you with the name your price tool. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. Insurance isn't one size fits all. That's why drivers have enjoyed progressive's name your price tool for years now. With the name your price tool, you tell them what you want to pay, and they'll show you options that fit your budget. So whether you're picking out your first policy or just looking for something that works better for you and your family, they make it easy to see your options. Visit progressive.com, find a rate that works for you with the name your price tool. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. I'm just saying. Anyone outside the top 12. Do one more talk, Carson. Big and mad. It is so mad. It's not good. I will not give some credit.

2:05And guess what? He's amazing. What an intro that was. Thank you to Carson for putting that together. Absolutely incredible. Love it so much. Oh, hey, Mady's welcome aboard the fantasy postseason edition. No, that was last week. Go back on list at the last week show because it is the middle of the playoffs. This is a postseason edition of the Shalows, the pod design. Specifically for all you 10 team and smart league managers out there. I'm your captain Eric Henryson. Alongside chief make cars, but Carson, how are the seas bearing today? I kid you not Eric until about 10 minutes ago. It had been stormy and raining all day. All day and all of the night. And then the sun has come out. So this is going to be a apparently bright and sunny edition of the Shalows. And I am excited to talk postseason with you. Nice. Yes, I'm excited as well. If you are like many players out there, you may have just had your ratios as your pitchers just absolutely demolish this week.

3:05If you're a playoff team, because it seems like every good pitcher has been bad. Like really, really bad. Did you have Kyle Harrison? Did you have Yuri Paris? Did you have Logan Webb? Because I did. Not fun. It's really terrible when you start a week like that. And then your opponent has like four homers and 10 RBI's also in the hitting. And you put up like one RBI. And that's it. It's demoralizing when you start the week one day like that. But keep fighting. It is a full week of games. We are here to help you into the weekend to try and win your first round. Fantasy matchup. On today's show, it is the captain's report. And then just one other segment outside of that. It's who we were wrong on Carson and I scoured our old shows. We literally listened to all of them. No, I'm joking. We just went back to our run of shows that we had typed out here. And we looked at the players in the preseason that we said to either avoid or target or swing for the fences on during our position previews.

4:08Way, way, way, way, way back in March. And see who we may have been wrong on hint hints. He might be the number one player in fantasy this year. MVP candidate that I was maybe wrong on. Maybe just a little bit. Just a little bit. It's fine. You can't be right on everything. All right. So before we get underway here, if you've been following Pitcher List, you know we've been talking about the PL Pro dashboard for a while now. Well, it just got a massive upgrade with Nick Pollock's personal pitching dashboard. Our dashboard gives you the ability to sync your teams and make your moves based on the PL Pro data and our pitch list staff rankings. Yep, that's like kind of us. If it will house all of our PL Pro tools and currently has our revamped process plus charts with many more coming soon, those process plus charts are dope. The big addition recently is the tool that Nick Pollock uses every night to write his roundups

5:08and it is now available and has been updated to make the PL Pro dashboard even better. This is literally the exact tool Nick uses every single night to write his roundups. Updated live as games happen so you get every Pitcher's data all in one place. Again, updated live as the games happen. Other features of our dashboard include sync team management features, pitch list staff rankings and revamped process plus charts. Right now you can get 20% off PL Pro yearly with the code live dashboard. That's all caps, no spaces. That gives you early access to the dashboard before our official 1.0 launch next year plus entry to our discord and all of our PLV projections. Also on the discord you can reach out directly to Carson and I. It's really cool. Again, that's code live dashboard all caps, no spaces for 20% off PL Pro yearly. Love these reads. They're so much fun and here's one more for you. Before we officially leave port, we release a new episode every Friday,

6:09the audio version releases at 7am Eastern wherever you get your podcast and the video version premieres on YouTube the same night at 8am Eastern as well. If you want to see our beautiful made for it and made for radio mugs dang almost got through the whole thing without shipping out so close. So be sure to subscribe so you never miss an episode. Leave us a five-stop rating and like a thumbs up a kind of you and don't forget we're part of the Pitcher List podcast network so check out the other pods we have available. There are new episodes out daily and visit Pitcher List.com for all the latest and greatest content published daily as well. I feel like I just ran a mile. Anyway, when we come back to this campus board stay tuned we'll be right back. Welcome back to the Shalows. That's Carson. I'm Eric and this is your captain's report. Starting with injuries and other news. Well, I hate to tell you it's been a pretty slow injury and other news week and that is totally okay. The biggest news of the week is James Wood has returned Carson. You inserting him into your line right away.

7:10Absolutely. Absolutely. One of the top talents in baseball and like we've said several times, a little bit of the show. You got to make moves and you got to gamble a little bit. This is a player that lets remember was the number one player in fantasy until a certain someone went kind of ballistic and also this certain someone went got hurt but more on that guy later. Yeah, James Wood still top five if I'm not mistaken after missing a month which that's crazy. Yeah, it just goes to tell you how good he was before the oblique injury. But he is back now. Get him in your lineups. Top performers over the last week. Got Alex Breggman has gone nuclear. 11 for 28 five homers. 12 RBI's and since the All Star Breaky is an OPS of 986. If you had him as your third baseman before the last week, you may have missed the playoffs. If you have him as your third baseman and you've made the playoffs,

8:12congratulations, you're probably going to win the week. It's a really great. What's funny is that if you look at the season season stats, this is same also with like Rafael Deppers, you're not going to notice anything. Right. And there, it's only good to be the stories that remain of just a few months of like, what the heck is going on with these guys? Breggman's been great. Breggman, honestly the entire comes offense. I think we could spend a segment on there. They've been outrageous. And I will add, they might get Justin Steele back this month, which would be huge for that pitching staff. Because let's remember Justin Steele was a top Sai Young votegitter not too long ago. Yeah, well, he'll be coming back as a starter or believer. Oh, he has to be a starter. Yeah, I think they need it. I wonder if the wind is blowing out, Epirically? I just because the whole offense is just clicked. It's kind of crazy. All right, moving on. Ronald the Cunier Jr. 10 for 22 for walks, a Homer 2 stolen bases.

9:12I think he's finally waking up just in time to help out your rosters. Talk about him over the last. Oh, God knows how many weeks it feels like he's always in the update here in the captain's report. Where does he fall on your draft board for next season? Is he still a first round pick for you? It has to be. It has to be just someone that has so much upside. And everything under the hood looks pretty solid even this year. Like this is an underwhelming year, but it's certainly not a Cal Rale type year where you're just like what the heck is going on. Or Kyle Tucker, you know, like this is a solid year that just isn't totally getting off the ground. And so on free, solid year. Yeah, I think he's, I don't think he's top, you know, maybe three or four, but I think back into the first round, I couldn't. I don't see how you can't take such tantalizing upside that really, like you said, hasn't there's no indication that it's gone or even starting to trend downward.

10:15Oh, here's another guy who actually came back from injury this week. Roman Anthony, he has four consecutive hits. Well, I'm sorry, four consecutive multi hit games off the ILE's nine for 18, including a Homer yesterday. Last week, we said, yeah, you kind of got to get him back in your lineups right because he was, you know, top five round pick. He like what you've seen so far. All right. Yeah, absolutely. The Red Sox have just this, uh, consurging culture of productivity. Roman Anthony fits right into that. And like we've said, he is one of the premier talents in the game. Uh, are you investing in that guy? I was a Mickey, Mickey Gaspard. No, Mickey Gaspard, the legend of Mickey Gaspard. Twins legend, Mickey Gaspard. Oh, he came over in a trade. He was, uh, no, not in trade. He was a free agent. And because he hit, I think, one 52 last year. And it was not very good. No, he's a 30 year old journeyman guy. Um, not even a journeyman. He was in the Boston system forever and then got moved around.

11:19Uh, hey, you can play the hot hand if you want. I think that's a lot more relevant in deeper leads. That's true. Yeah, Mickey Gaspard, not really relevant in shallow. I just had to, I just had to bring him up because it's, it's like a guy like that. Right now for the Red Tox is of course performing like an all-star. They just, oh, God. Did you see the, did you see the graphic they put on about like the best months in baseball history? Don't tell me he was on the graphic. It was like Ted Williams, OPS of 1900, Barry Bond's 1800, and then Mickey Gaspard was third. I was like, that's the funniest thing I've ever seen. One of these is not like the other. Okay, uh, Cam Schleitler two starts. 13 and two thirds innings pitch. One earned run. 17 strikeouts. I watched a bit of the start last night against the angels. First of all, it is the angels, but he's so good. Oh, okay. Well, speaking of the angels, uh, we didn't put this on the run down. But let's put, let's talk about this right now. The Loss Angels Angels have been sold.

12:20Are you marino angels fans? It's gone. It's a sick cronkey. So, you know, the change more of a change in direction rather than a, you know, maybe a change in direction rather than just outright relief and salvation. But, uh, big news, 3.9 billion dollars. Huge news. Yeah. You know, so a couple weeks work for me, but, uh, just, uh, that mean pretty, pretty significant. Uh, that was funny. Sorry, that really got me. I tried. Yeah. Do you think this, this sale, and then we'll get back to Schlytler real quickly, but do you think the sale of the angels eventually makes them a competent franchise? Yeah. Well, you have it right there. Cars in the crowd are confident in it. Okay. Okay, back to the camp Schlytler. I, I, I tend to agree with you by the way on the angels. Baseball is not as fast to turn around as basketball and, and football.

13:24Like football, you can turn around year over year. Uh, basketball, you know, three, four years, I feel like baseball takes like six years to get. I guess unless you're the Clippers now, this is still a baseball like, yes, but and then just like a very tiny slap on the wrist for quiet. Anyway, yeah, I know. Um, back to baseball. Cam Schlytler was fantastic. I love his here, here it is. Hit it. You can't. And he's just been fantastic. He was extremely efficient last night too. Against the angels was able to work eight innings and, um, he didn't even touch a hundred pitches. So he was really good. And I think you start him with confidence, rest of season. Where is Cam Schlytler on your, uh, for black and better term? Depth chart when it comes to starters next season. Tough, right? SP one? Whoa. Maybe. I'd expect that. Maybe? I mean, it's what about Lee Miz?

14:27Well, here's the thing. How many innings are you getting at a Mizorowski last year? Oh, yeah. Also, let's assume that baseball happens next year, which you know, uh, but we're assuming. Um, yeah, yeah. That's the thing with Mizorowski. It's like, I'm really concerned if that, that glass can and it's going to crack, um, which is maybe a little unfair, but like, come on. It's not. I don't think it's that unfair. He's throwing harder than anybody ever. That's not unfair. It's a little, I don't know. I mean, Hunter Green has never been a qualified pitcher. That's the kind of thing, right? Right. So, yeah, I mean, I think Schlytler has a really high floor because he basically only throws pass balls and they're all really good. Yeah. You don't have to worry about him losing feel for any of the pitches. He commands him pretty well and he throws him hard. I like scuba is up there, obviously. And maybe that should be, maybe that should be it. But, um, I think Schlytler, it's really hard for him to have a bad start.

15:28Yeah, it kind of is, it's more of like, the game plan wasn't right or like he just was lost that day. You know, like, yeah, you know, even the one of the starts in here, his command was off and he walked a ton of guys and it didn't end up crushing him. But I think Schlytler's been good. I don't know. SP wants maybe a little high. But like, I think he has, and I think it's shallowlies. I mean, him or schoolable for really high floors. Yeah. Um, you know, CS, Mizorowski, obviously, is unbelievable. If you, but like, do you believe in the durability? No, no, that's weird. But I think let's absolutely top five for me. Yeah, I have to sleep on it. Yeah, I agree. I think he is top five. It'd be, it's going to be really interesting when we do the spring previews and all that next season. Talking about pictures. Oh, we will do it. Don't you put that evil on everybody? Because man, I'm not putting it on. I'm not putting it on that.

16:31I'm not, I'm not. Uh, moving on here, Dylan sees you briefly mentioned him in that rankings thought process that you were going through for Camp Schletler. Dylan sees two starts 12 innings pitch, one or 12 strikeouts. He's just been phenomenal this season worth every penny of that contract that the blue jays have paid him. Unfortunately, the team around him has been bad. So Dylan sees has been great. Do you think this is a turning point in his career where he might be a more dependable pitcher going forward or is this? He's had a good year look out for next year. He's probably not going to be as good because that seems to be what happens with him. Yeah, Seas is a guy that, I mean, well, the strikeouts have just been like outrageous this year. Like kind of out, I'm not going to say out of nowhere, but like he has always struck out a lot of guys, but he was never touched over north of 35%. So I don't, I mean, this is deserving of a deep dive. Let me put it that way of like what has really changed his seat. He's always been very, he's always been a ton of strikeouts.

17:34Then I do hesitate with Seas on. It's like the walk rate still really had this year. Honestly, not that much has changed. He's just getting a lot more, he's getting a lot more, just going to miss a lot more case. One thing has changed. Yeah. He's just going to turn my head, do the pop this way. He turns his head in the middle of his, in the middle of his wind up. Oh, does he really? Yeah, that's literally. I'm literally touched on that really. Yeah, so so he he'll start. When he lifts his leg, he turns his head and looks away from the plate. He looks towards the third base dugout and that like slowed his body down. So like mechanically, that's the biggest change. However, everything else, I'm not, I'm not entirely sure. Anything has changed beyond other than a mechanical tweak because he felt like he was getting ahead of his arm. So like slowed his body down doing that. Yeah, it's really interesting. Take a look if you haven't, if listeners, if you haven't been paying attention to

18:35Dillon Sees because you didn't draft him. And then of course, whoever has him on his, on their roster does want to trade him. Take a look, that's a big reason for the progression of Dillon Sees. I wonder if it hangs on next season. Last up here in the captain's report, Andrew Painter, two starts 13 ratings pitched, two run runs, 12 strikeouts, a 0.538 win. Where's Andrew Painter on your big board? Hi, and rapidly increasing. This is a guy that had a ton of hype a few years ago. Got hurt. Hype was nerfed a bit, came up and debuted was dismal. Absolutely horrific. Got sent back down, tweaked some things, come back up, and the stuff is back. And Sees commanding things pretty well. And like these are a few starts from Painter where he's been absolutely sensational. I mean, shallow league, not just shallow league relevant, but like shallow league star. For Painter, I think it's still in the double digits, but like we're talking I think a top

19:3915 pitcher right now. He's so good. He's outstanding. And I think there's a lot of stuff, a lot of occasion that that backs that. This is one of the better pitchers in baseball. And I think I want to see more before I'm really super bullish on it. But we've seen like four in credit. Since he's come back, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Yes. Yeah. Simple. Just yes. This is a guy who I believe came into the season as a top 10 prospect. You know, still on prospect list. Was not good. Got sent pen down. Fixed something clearly. And he's been very good since coming back up. And maybe he can fulfill that potential that we all saw in him as a 19 year old before having Tommy John surgery. That's right. He was on prospect list. High up there. Best pitching prospect when he was 19 years old. So the talent is there.

20:40Just can. Can the body hold up and and really sustain the talent? Okay. When we come back. It's who we were wrong on. You're going to have a lot of fun with some of the names on these on this list. Here and I, I may just, you know, crawl into a hole or something. So when we come back. It's who we were wrong on. Stay tuned. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the Shadows. That's Carson. I'm Eric. And this is a segment we're calling who we were wrong on. Pretty self explanatory. And surprise. We were wrong on some players. Not everyone. Just some. Some I was really shocked that are on this list. And some not so much. We were right on a lot though. As we were reviewing our old shows from way, way, way, way, way, way back in March. We were looking at the position previews that we did. And again, we put we previewed everything from catcher to relief pitcher, including saves plus holds. We went. For lack of a better term. We dove deep in the Shadows.

21:42We were all the way at the bottom of the four foot pool. Okay. So we were. We were right on quite a bit. And we will go over that next week. But this week, we will swallow our pride and tell you who we were wrong on. First up on the list here, we put him on a raft with Devon Williams. And there was somebody else. I can't remember. And we sent them like way out to a drift to see. Because we wanted nothing to do with them. And first up on the list here is Zach Wheeler. We were wrong on Zach Wheeler person. This is such a weird year for Wheeler. And it's like, yes, I. First of all, um, this is. It's an injury that I know Tommy John, the moment for me, back when Verlander won his second side young, that 1.75 year, right, tremendous season he had with the Astros, right. And he had that second Tommy John surgery came back and knew this.

22:43The narratives of that was like, he's 38 years old, hasn't pitched for two years coming back from Tommy John surgery. Can he do it at all? And then he has one of the best seasons in the last few years, at least from a run for bench and standpoint. And to me, that was the the watershed moment where I was like, Tommy John surgery, Ken is is not easy to come back from necessarily. But should not be treated as such a boogie man. Like this could be a totally career altering thing. That was like Steven Strasberg was a guy that got Tommy John surgery and then wasn't quite that same picture from the hype had debuted. Several pictures from years past. I think I'm not going to say this is the same thing with Wheeler. The Rackic, uh, thoracic outlets in Dremin, know is there's tears of severity and variance in severity. Even amongst those tears. But as recording, he's got a 3.3 ERA over 130 innings, 23 starts, uh,

23:43whip of 1.09. Like that's a tremendous picture. That's an absolutely top six round pit or top picture in the Shalileeg, you know, top to TTP. And, um, you know, Eric, for me, this is one where I think, I'm not going to say it's cemented because people are weird. But in my mind, this is a Hall of Fame lock for me. Like in, and like, do I think of Zach Wheelzger Hall of Famer comes back and has this season? Yeah, absolutely to me. He's a Hall of Fame. Yeah, you know, I'll be honest, I did not know he's been this good for this long. In, in a way, I know he's been good the last five years. But it's been longer than that. Let's remember Zach Wheeler missed two full seasons early in his career with injuries. He missed 2015 and 2016. Yeah, he's just missing from his, and then 2017 was a half season.

24:4617 games started. So he, he got off to a rough start in his career and he has just been so good. Over the last eight, eight, nine years, it's kind of crazy. One of the best pictures of the 2020s, which is weird because he's been in his 30s the whole time. But he's been absolutely sensational. And I remember I saw Zach Wheeler, he was on the mound, he gets the twins a couple years back and I was at the game. And just some pictures do have that kind of Cooperstown aura to them. You know, you see them and they're like, these are some of the best guys. I felt that way about Wheeler and that's not a real analysis. That's total vibes based analysis, right? Yeah. But I guess like when we think about like what are the lessons we get from this? What are we to be thinking? Four players that do have this extraordinary amount of talent because this was the interesting thing. They're coming back. Do we, how much are we trusting those tremendous mechanics to return when you have a player

25:50of this caliber coming back from injury? Even a terribly severe one. Yeah, it's when you start with the talent level up here. If you're listening, I have my hand above my head, which is a very tall head, by the way. It is. I am six four. So this is about six seven in the air. You have a lot, you have a much further way to go before you become a relevant in the amount of talent that you can lose. Now some guys have smaller margins than others, even if they're telling his way up there. But man, like when you're like that good, when you're that guy, and you have all the talent to lose, yeah, you know, like Brandon Woodruff is that good too. He just can't stay healthy. Right. You know, the guy I was thinking too of like he came back and was actually really solid. Yeah, shockingly. You know, he finished velocity and everything.

26:51Yeah, and that's what we're seeing from Wheeler too. And yeah, he had some bumpy starts recently, but man, he's just been so good. Yes, we were wrong on Zach Wheeler. He's been absolutely phenomenal. I still would hesitate on investing in guys that have the RASIK outlet, um, surgery. It's just maybe if they're of this echelon, this caliber of a player, will in the future be a little less hesitant on them. Because I know that was the reason why both of us were saying we didn't want to touch Zach Wheeler with a 10 foot pole because of coming off that. What is usually a career ending surgery? So, uh, yeah, maybe next year, well, if there's a player of that caliber, maybe you won't send them out on the raft. Maybe they'll be attached to the dinghy on the boat. And if they fall to you, we will draft them. All right, next up here, uh, talk about Finn margins. We were talking about him before the show as we added his name to this list and poured one out.

27:53Paul schemes. We were wrong on Paul schemes, Carson. You were vehemently defending him as one of the best pitchers of all time after two full seasons in the majors. Well, about. Yep. And this year, he has been a point of contention for a lot of fantasy managers. We were wrong on Paul schemes. We were wrong on Paul schemes. We were wrong on Paul schemes. Are we sure? Yeah. I mean, absolutely for what, where he was not even close to first-frand value. True. I mean, pitched all year and even is ERA is terrible, but like, come on, you were not expecting anything to this degree from schemes. And so then, let's talk about what went wrong. It's easy to say we are wrong, but what went wrong? What? The, I mean, so the obvious thing is velocity. That's what all the headlines are about. The velocity has gone down. Well, we were talking about this before the show. The average velocity has gone down a bit from the last, or a considerable amount from last two

28:54years. Right. It's gone down about a tick, a tick and a half. Yeah. Although, when we were talking about this also, the actual effectiveness of the forcing fastball has not really changed. It's getting more whips. Yeah. It is on a run, the stackhouse run value per situation doing about the same, the Wova, the metrics, all generally point to this fastball being about as good as it has been the last few years. So I don't think it is as simple as he's not touching 102 anymore. Now, it's got being able to ramp it up and ramp and just absolutely throw that crushing velocity. Jacob Mizorowski doesn't have a great shape on his fastball, but no one cares because he chucks it so dang hard. It doesn't matter, right? And we've even seen, even the last couple of weeks, sometimes that velocity does dip for Mizorowski.

29:55I have the world's largest air quotes here, dips for Mizorowski and he, you know, we threw 102 instead of, it's 103 miles an hour, it's 100 or it's 99, but like, that matters a lot. And it actually, when the shape isn't that great where there's not a lot of good movement on it, you, the batter can read it easier. Empty velocity is what you call it. Yeah, something like that. And ultimately, it once it gets rolling, it doesn't matter. So definitely, I think that does matter for skins and maybe there's some sequencing things there of, uh, and it's tricky to say, but I wouldn't be very surprised if it's like a fastball that used to more dependently, you know, you can ramp it back to 101 miles an hour and the batter has to gear up for that and they're thinking about it, you throw a sweeper away and there's, there's mind games there.

30:57Did offer a change up, right? A change up on, if you're gearing up for 101 mile an hour fastball that you're sitting in the box, you know it's coming eventually and a change up comes in, there's going to wipe you away. If it's 96, 97, like you've seen that a million times by now. I think also, um, with skins, this is a little bit of regression that perhaps was a bit delayed from the last couple of years. We were talking about this again before the pre-show. Uh, he had generally not done nearly, I mean, he has not been, he's been insane, but he has been fairly lucky, right? He has gotten, he has, his expected numbers the last couple of years happened better. Also, by the way, I would like to point out, season metrics for Paul Schienz are stupid this year because if you remember, he's very first start of the year.

31:58It was like two outs and it allowed five earned runs and if you take that start out, his EORAs in the mid threes. So yeah, like the onil cruise game as I've been in this game. Yeah, come to be known. Yep. I think that Paul Schienz is still really good. And I think that he has a tremendous amount of talent and I think that there are going to be some things work dying. He is a sh-kinkered with his pitch mix and insane amount. Yes. Remember the splinker you brought this up was yo, he doesn't really throw that much anymore. And that was like his nasty wipeout pitch when he first came up. I just would like to point out a couple things as far as luck is concerned with Paul Schienz. His left on base percentage is 67%. The last two years, it's been over 82%. Yeah. That's a giant difference. That's crazy. Yep. His ground ball rate, this is a little concerning less luck, but this is concerning. The ground ball rate has gone from 51 to 44 to now 39.6.

33:01So that doesn't help. The Babib has thus gone up from about the 270s to 80s to over 300. And he is walking about half a batter more per nine innings, but he's also making that up with half a batter more struck out per nine innings. So there's some weird quirky things happening to Paul Schienz. Specifically that left on base percentage is a weird thing. Like that right there, that is that's yeah. I think that well, let's put it this way. The sub two ERA wasn't going to last. I think we can pretty safely say that. Yes. Pretty safely say that. Or really to be really hard to do that. But yes, I think a couple, if there's, perhaps a little bit of confidence and velocity gained back on the fastball, a couple tightening of screws in the right places. I think we could see mid to ZRA schemes. Yeah, I don't think there's that much crazy here. His K minus walk

34:04is K minus walk percentage is still 22. Yeah. His his his walk rate going up it. Yeah, the walk rate going up by one percent. Right. But but the walk rate going up combined with the left on base percentage dip is why you're seeing the ERA higher. Yeah, just to just to simplify it. But like he's fine. And I agree with you. Like next year, I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA is between 225 and 2.5. Like I would be surprised. What's lower? Let me put it this way feeling independent pitching, which is, it's, you know, has its flaws. But I think it's always interesting to look at for the last three years, 2024, 2.44, 2025, 2.36, which led Major League Baseball at 2026, 3.07. Right. ERA 1.96, 1.97, 3.97. There it is. I think we're going to be fine to draft schemes next year.

35:09Yes, I wouldn't draft them in the first round. Round two, but probably not. Probably not. My philosophy on pitching maybe in general probably not. I wouldn't draft the pitcher in the first round. Yeah, it's just my philosophy. All right, moving on. We were wrong on Logan Web. He killed my ERA first start of this week. He's not been very good all season, very inconsistent. He's had stretches where he looks like the ace, the number two pitcher on your fantasy team. And then he's had stretches where you just want to rage drop him, which I hope you didn't do because the options out there right now are not good. Carson, how badly did we miss on Logan Web? If we're really honest with ourselves, I don't think we missed horrifically badly. But it's not good. It's not good. He was the leader in strikeouts last year. No, crazy, that is. Just now you're going to come close.

36:10He was not, he was not. No way. He had 224 strikeouts. Oh, volume. He lead leader in innings. And then over K-Pernine, he was the MLB leader in strikeouts. Which is crazy because he's not that guy, but he increased his strikeout rate. And that wasn't so. If honestly, I didn't think that was going to last either. But like, that was one of the things with Web. I was like, he's going to be consistent and have a lot of general. I kind of thought he was going to do with Christopher St. Chas' doing this year. Okay. Or maybe not Christopher St. because St. Chas is, he gets a ton of whiffs, which is crazy. But tons of whiffs started to strike out. Christopher St. Chas, I love him. He's sort of like the cooler Logan Web. But Web just does not, just has not been nearly as good this year. Not been nearly as good this year. And I'm very disappointed. Career worst strikeout rate. K-Pernine. Career worst this year.

37:16And the left-on-based percentage for him too, 66%. And what's tough is for Web. He's a guy that, well, I'm not going to say he allows a lot of base runners, but generally his whip is a little higher than most. And so if that can get away from him. And he allows a lot of contact and base runners get all go around. I mean, that's tough. I generally, a giant defense that I think has been okay. Well, actually, yeah, absolutely. It was good at least first half. And yeah, Luis Arise, the second base who is insane and Jung Holi in center. Adama, Sir George has been fine. Chapman a third for a while. Maybe it's Chapman a third, not being there. Maybe that's what's going on. It might be part of it, but I think it's just a lot of the stuff has not been effective. Really, his pitch mix is a lot different this year. I feel like it's more balanced. He used to be just on a sink or change up. It's now incorporating some other pitches in the fray.

38:18I would still start him if he gets to start over the weekend for the second start because you need to balance out that crooked number he put up for your ratios this week. All right, next up, we were wrong on Griffin Fatt stacks, Jacks. And you have been parentheses here twice. Yeah. So Jacks was not good as a reliever enclosure. And then he went to the rotation and was initially I didn't think was going to be very good. And I was turned out okay. What do I learn from this? Eric, I have no idea. Eric, I don't know. He got smacked yesterday coming off the I.O. He got absolutely crunched. Yeah. Surprise the Tampa activated him because the only had gotten to 42 pitches or something like that with his with his rehab start. So I'm really surprised that they took him off the I.O.

39:19for a short start. It did not go well. All right, next up on the list here after Griffin Fatt stacks, Jacks is Corey Seeger. We were wrong on Corey Seeger. Carson, you were all in. And Corey Seeger was like, no, no, I'm all out. Check all these injuries. You're on the worst thing, Eric. What? Is like I still believe in him. He's he's actually been good since coming off the last I.O. still. I still think about like he's just a really good hitter. He's so aggressive and he does so well with that aggression. But yeah, just this year, he hasn't had it. Hasn't had it. What happens when you have injury plagued seasons, it's kind of just like, oh, well, chalk it up, lost season. Yeah, the talent is still there. Still hits the ball extremely hard. Over the last month, three homers, 10 RBI's, 293 batting average with an 844. Is that not what you expect from Corey Seeger? Maybe a few more homeruns, but you know, whatever.

40:22One month, random 30 day sample there. All right, when we come back, we have some other names here, including the big one, the big one, the big one with three letters. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the Shadows. I'm Eric. That's Carson. And this is the continuation of who we were wrong on. Again, we went back through all of our shows. We listened to them very intently. No, we just went back and we looked at the run of shows that we put together. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, back in March. And for our position previews, and we are just talking about the players that we either predicted that you should avoid, that you should invest in, or that you should swing for the fences on. And who we got wrong in those lists. And so far, we were wrong on Zach Wheeler, Paul Schienz, Logan Webb, Griffin Fets, Jacks, and Corey Seeger. And here's the one that Carson had the nerve to put in big bold letters, underlined,

41:24highlighted just in my face on the run down here. So I couldn't miss it. And yet I almost did. Just kidding. It is the man with it goes by three letters. PCA, Pete Crow Armstrong. The segment is titled, we were wrong. We were wrong on PCA. Yeah, I mean, I, I'll, I'm with you. I'm with you. I was, I was wrong. I mean, I think everyone was wrong if you expected him to do this. But yeah, I, I didn't think that the play discipline would amount for things. And what's incredible about Pete Crow Armstrong is it looked for the first 45 days of the season that we are, we're absolutely nailed it because he was not good at all the first couple of months of the year, which is, which is, you know, kind of insane considering how he has ended up. But in April and March, or part in April and March, he had a 6.69 OPS.

42:27In May, he had 762. And then since June, he's hit like Aaron Judge. Yes. I mean, this is just some of the most prolific and best hitting we have seen. And he's not only doing that, but he's swiping just an incredible amount of bases and playing outrageously good defense. That last part doesn't matter for fantasy purposes, but it's been an outrageous year for Pete Crow Armstrong. And this is weird when you're trying to analyze like how we were wrong. Right. Because I think I don't even think like the process of like, oh, this guy with a really high chase and with Ra is going to struggle a little bit more next year because we had the entire second half last year where he was really poor. Right. It's difficult. And this is a thing where like a sometimes talent prevails. We've seen that a couple times, even in the last couple years, Junior Caminero,

43:30Jordan Walker, some of these guys, extremely toolsy. They have their side of things. You have guys like Luis Robert Jr., who just can never get off the ground. And maybe there's something to be said about supportive situations, coaching staff, what have you guys there or players and good organizations with developing? But on the flip side of that, you know, there's always some guys. There's just our never able to never able to get it totally. Yeah. I think this entire segment actually speaks to process. Have a process and stick to the process. It shouldn't change just because of something. Whatever that something might be. Our process in evaluating Pico Armstrong was correct. But like you said to me before the show, players aren't spreadsheets. They are human beings. They can make adjustments. They can have something going on off the field

44:33that affects their performance on the field negative or positively. They can make changes. There is coaching staffs that find flaws and fix them in the middle of the season. I have to imagine that a player like PCA with his tendencies that he had. And yes, he's definitely improved on the whiff and chase tendencies. I have to wonder if he made a mechanical adjustment that we don't know about or haven't heard about because he's just been too locked in for so long. It's like that little tweak, whatever it was. Maybe it was a mental adjustment. That has clearly fixed him and helped him have like you said, an Aaron judge level type season. This is just absolutely crazy. But I don't think our process was incorrect in evaluating PCA. Okay. Next up. We were wrong on Vinnie Pasquen Tino. He was great last year. 30 homers. 100 plus RBIs.

45:39Injuries. Yeah. I mean, Pasquen Tino just the sapt power. Not able to, not able to do things. Remember Coffin Stadium where the walls got moved in? Yes. Wow. That has not come up once. Not a single headline. No, single headline. Zero. That's kind of crazy. That's what I would. Yeah. Yeah. baseball is stupid. It's just stupid sport. And it is the highest variance. It's just too crazy. But that being said, Vinnie Pasquen Tino has had a few injury riddled seasons now at this point in his career. And I think we've maybe got to kind of back off any hope that he's going to become the player that we thought he would be maybe perhaps because too many injuries.

46:39For a guy whose fantasy relevant ceiling really depends on him doing a couple things. It's not like it's not like some other players who can contribute in many different ways. He's not going to score a lot of runs. He's not going to steal bases. He's not going to hit for the highest average. So what are you depending on from Vinnie P? Homer's in RBIs. And first base is so deep now. I think we can maybe move him down our big board next year. I didn't ask you. I should have asked you about PCA, but I was really trying to get off the subject because of how wrong we were. Where is he on the big board for drafting next season? Top five. Yeah. Would you take him or Ronald D'acune next season? Ah, ah, Armstrong PCN. Fair enough. Next up on the list here. A guy who was drafted in the top two rounds, depending on how big your drafts were again, shallow leaks. So probably taking them the second round. Gunner Henderson. We missed on him. How do we miss on Gunner Henderson?

47:44I think everybody missed on Gunner Henderson. God Gunner Henderson is so lucky. Cal Raleigh exists. He's so dang lucky. He's so and Kyle Tucker and Kyle Tucker. Yes. This guy had like a nine war season a couple of years ago at like age 23. It was a eight war. 7.9 technically. 159 games. 37 Homer's 118 runs 92. RBIs 21 stone bases. 281 man. What? Just I mean, he was there. There was he's safely above it now, but there was a while. He was like just training on the Mendoza line just barely over under it. It's a little more competent now. And he's been a lot better actually way better over the last month. But like this has been a catastrophe. Yeah. It has 220. 22 Homer's 10 stone bases. 57 RBIs hitting 220 again. I'll say it

48:50one more time. A third time. 20. He's been a lot better over the last month. He has been a lot better over the last month. So maybe there's some solace there. And maybe there's some things that are made of secret injury type of deal. I don't know. Maybe he was lingering. I don't know. Maybe accidentally broke a hammate. Again, you remember all that. Oh, the hammate injuries. Speaking of his teammate, his teammate Jackson holiday, not going to be the superstar that everyone hoped he would be. But still young enough to improve. I eat Jordan Walker. I will say this. Yes. The Orioles made a really interesting move this week when they claimed to Luis Robert off waivers from the nets. Why? Orioles just have fun. They failed to rebuild. Would you agree? What do you think? Yeah. Shout out to that one Marin. They're sorry. Not Marin. Shout out to that one Orioles team.

49:52Pour one out for the 100 win 100 win Orioles. Wasn't that two years ago in 2024 when Gunner Henderson was 23. Yeah. Oh, well, he was great in 2023 too. All right, moving on next player that we were wrong on Dylan Seas. We were on. Where was I didn't even remember seeing his name? We were wrong. I was wrong in Dylan Seas. I put him on there because I just I I faved him everywhere. I mean, I've said many times before I felt like Dylan Seas was the worst good pitcher in baseball. I I agree with you and I'm not sure my opinion changes based on what I talk about. I think it has to change a little bit. But I'm he's going to be the sign young runner up might even outright win. We still have a few weeks to go. We'll see. It's close. Yankee fan. Calm. Calm yourself. Goosefrabba. Goosefrabba.

50:56Yeah. I mean, Dylan Seas. I mean, this is the stuff the stuff Metrics have always been there. There was a swing and miss was always there. I don't know. Sometimes this is the thing where sometimes you might just have to trust a player's talent. That's come up a few times. This is a guy that obviously is extremely talented, but had a lot of variance. Last year, you knew we wasn't a 4.5. You're a pitcher, but you just I don't know. For me personally, I was like the walk rate so high. I never know if his ceilings going to get back to where it was in like 2022 or 2021, rather, and it did. And now look at me. But weird. Yeah. It's weird here. Yeah. This is pretty crazy because honestly, he's done this before in a weird way. Yeah. 2022. He did this before. He did. Yeah. So I would I would also not be shocked if next year he has an ERA 4.5, which is what he did in 2023. Like you said, he's a high variance pitcher. It's the walks that

52:03really create the variance there. Fun fact, if we're speaking on luck, his left on base percentage is 80% this year in 2022 when he had a very similar season, it was 82%. The three years in between 69%. So it was a little bit of luck. The huge thing of like what's going to matter if you're allowing runs to come in now granted. Great way to not have runs go across is to strike guys out. Yep. Which is what he does in spades. But yes. If those if those ratios are tweaked a little bit in the wrong directions. I don't know. Yeah. I I love your assessment of him is the the worst good pitcher in baseball. Who knows? Maybe that mechanical tweak will change something going forward for him. But I'm not sure I will be hesitant. I do feel like he's going to be overdrafted next season based on this performance. Yeah. All right. Next up on the list. We were wrong on bow. But

53:06shit. Um, that's. I mean, perfectly, honestly, that's enough analysis for me. Yeah. Just just yeah. The whole team, the whole franchise. Um, boba shit over the last month has actually been really good. 310 batting average 903 OPS 4 homers 13 RBI's and he stole a base last night. Let's be honest. That's a third base shortstop. Is it dual eligible player? Um, on a bad team? Who knows? Does he have a player option for next season? Because I think this like 40 million dollars. It was it was like a one year. I don't remember. I don't remember it all. But uh, you better pick up that option if you can because meds. Uh, let's see here. Uh, it's a three year hundred and twenty six million dollar deal. Um,

54:08I'm looking at here. Trump change. That's two foul talkers. Yeah. No player option for the next two seasons. You better believe meds fans. He is picking that up. Yeah. Get ready for that. Yeah. All right. Moving on here. We were wrong on boba shit. He's been so mediocre. In fact, bad, quite droppable, especially in shallow leagues. Even a third base, you can find a better option. You could have found a better option all season. Next up Matt Olson. How are we wrong on Matt Olson? I guess I just didn't think he'd keep you on it. Yeah, fair. He's on pace to play 162 again. What'd you say for the fifth? It was like a fifth year in a row. That's that's it. Yes. He's been very good. That's crazy. Um, I don't think we were quite wrong on Matt Olson. I surely he won't do it again. Listen up with again. I'm pretty sure he will. Unless I'm pretty sure he will. It hits the ball hard. He's so. Matt Olson. I'm going to say something funny.

55:12Matt Olson is so dang good at being Matt Olson. Yes. He is really good at being Matt Olson. He's. I personal opinion on Matt Olson. He's he came off that way. It was a 54 home run season to have two very subpar years in between before this year. I think, yeah, 25 and 24. He had 29 home runs. He's one of those years. I think what you're seeing is kind of like the regression, the positive regression from Matt Olson to somewhere in between those mediocre 23 and 24 seasons. I'm sorry, 24 and 25 seasons and that 54 home run season because he's more of like in the middle there. He's not a 29 home run guy. He's a 35 plus easily home run guy. And so I think you're seeing that positive regression there from Matt Olson. He's still hitting the crap out of ball. Yeah. I think he's. You're right. He's very good at being Matt Olson. What else is there to be Matt Olson?

56:15Next up, we were wrong on Hase loose. Haseuse, Luzardo. And I'll take this one real quick. First, the high variant starts where the reason I said to avoid him. And honestly, I wasn't totally wrong about that. Yeah, but I didn't think he'd be this good of a pitcher. He's really good. He's just been so you know what? And you know what, Eric, we were totally right saying just get him at whatever price he can get him. Who's been. Who in your opinion without looking it up has been the better pitcher this season between Luzardo and Christopher Sanchez. That's funny. So I know Sanchez has been not flounder. He's not. He's been treading water a little last bit. I still I'm going to say Sanchez, but is it Luzardo? Who is the low e-array right now? Sanchez 252.

57:18Ooh, okay. He held up by like when he went a month and a half with that allowing a run. But yeah, Luzardo, um, second half, uh, or yeah, if Luzardo's second half 2.12 e-array, Rosentine starts. He's just been sub one whip. It's just like it was going to happen and then it happened and my goodness. Yeah, uh, Phillies are funny. Yeah, the Phillies are funny. Uh, if they only had a bullpen, they'd actually be really good. I got one guy. Yeah, you're on DeRont, but you got to get to him first. Yeah. Uh, all right. That wraps it up with our who we were wrong on segment. That's a lot of players. I'll just recap them real quick for you here. Zach Wheeler, Paul Schienz, Logan Webb, Griffin Jacks. Sorry, Griffin, that stacks, Jacks. Cory Seeger, a little guy named PCA, Pichero Armstrong, Vinnie P, Vinnie Pasquantino, Gunnar Henderson, Dylan C's, Boba Shett, Matt Olson, and Hayes Luz, Hay, I can't say his name without throwing the Ellen his name. Hey, Zeus, Luzardo. Next week, we're going to be back with players that we

58:23were right on. And that will be a lot of fun as well. And maybe we'll throw in some players that literally came out of absolutely nowhere. IE Jordan Walker. And, uh, yeah, we'll wrap it up right there. We'll be back next Friday with said brand new episode to make sure you never miss an episode. Please subscribe. We're available wherever you get your podcasts. And if you have a question for us to answer right here on the pod, reach out to us on social media. Leave a comment on YouTube. Hit us up on the P L discord or email us at the showers pod at gmail.com. Don't forget about the P L dashboard thing that I read way back in the beginning of the show. That is the P L Pro dashboard. Again, 20% off P L Pro yearly with code live dashboard. You can get access to that right now before version 1.0 launches next year. All right. He's Carson Picard at Carson Picard on Blue Sky. I'm sorry. And Twitter, the site formerly known as Twitter. I'm Eric at Eric in on Blue Sky and the website also formerly known as Twitter reminding you that murky waters are fine. If you know how to swim, see you next time in the shallows. Take care, you guys.

59:27Insurance isn't one size fits all. That's my driver's have enjoyed progressives name your price tool for years now. With the name your price tool, you tell them what you want to pay. And they'll show you options that fit your budget. So whether you're picking out your first policy or just looking for something that works better for you and your family, they make it easy to see your options. Visit progressive.com, find a rate that works for you with the name your price tool, progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates price and coverage match limited by state law. So if you've ever furnished a restaurant hotel or an office, you know the trail five vendors, five invoices, five delivery windows, but there's a better way to do this. Creighton Barrel Contract is a business to business program that covers three brands. Creighton Barrel, CB2 and Creighton Kids with one account, one order, one delivery. They've got durable plates and glasses, contract grade furniture and lighting that looks custom that's built for the wear of busy space actually takes. And the best part is you're not doing it alone. A dedicated rep handles your project end to end from volume orders to design curation. Plus members get 20% off,

1:00:34tax exempt checkout and flexible payment with no minimums. Learn more at Creightonbarrel.com slash podcast. That's Creightonbarrel.com slash podcast.