The Trump Administration Can’t Get Their Iran War Story Straight

It's true that some things change as we get older.

But if you're a woman over 40 and you're dealing with insomnia, brain fog, moodiness,

and weight gain, you don't have to accept it as just another part of aging.

And with midi health, you can get help and stop pushing through it alone.

The experts at midi understand that all these symptoms can be connected to the hormonal

changes that happen around menopause, and midi can help you feel more like yourself again.

Many healthcare providers aren't trained to treat or even recognize menopause symptoms.

Midi clinicians are menopause experts.

They're dedicated to providing safe, effective, FDA-approved solutions for dozens of hormonal

symptoms, not just hot flashes.

Most importantly, they're covered by insurance.

91% of midi patients get relief from symptoms within just two months.

You deserve to feel great.

Look your virtual visit today at joinmitty.com.

That's joinmidi.com

Support for the show comes from ODO.

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps

that don't talk to each other?

Introducing ODO.

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more.

In the best part, ODO replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

So why not you?

Try ODO for free at odo.com.

That's odo.com

Better at night and even motivates you to always use your PM moisturizer.

Now you've got to do a glow in a sense of balance to match.

Not worrying where your money is growing.

That's the betterment effect.

Get started today at betterment.com.

Investing in Valsus Performance is not guaranteed.

Welcome to Raging Monarchs, I'm Scott Gowire.

And I'm Jessica Tarla.

In today's episode of Raging Monarchs, we're discussing

why despite Trump saying the war is partially or completely done,

he is ramping up military action in Iran.

If you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page

to stay in the loop on all the day's political news.

All right, let's get into it.

11 days into the war with Iran.

And the message from Trump is quite frankly just all over the place.

On Monday, the peacetime president suggested the conflict might be wrapping up soon,

saying the US and Israel are very far ahead of schedule.

Well, can you share that schedule with us boss?

Anyways, markets briefly breed the cyberleaf,

but hours later, Trump warned that if Iran threatens global energy supplies,

the US would respond so forcefully the region would open quote, never recover.

Meanwhile, shipping through the Straits of Hormuz,

one of the most important oil truck points in the world is heavily disrupted.

So even as Trump talks about victory being close,

the actual endgame of the war and the pain it's causing for Americans is still pretty unclear.

Let's watch a moment from the press yesterday giving mixed signals.

Mr. President, you've said the war is quote, very complete,

but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning.

So which is it?

And how long should Americans be prepared for this?

Well, I think you can say it both at the beginning.

It's the beginning of building a new country,

but they certainly they have no navy.

They have no Air Force.

They have no anti aircraft equipment.

It's all been blown up.

They have no radar.

They have no telecommunications and they have no leadership.

It's all gone.

So you know, you could look at that statement.

We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here.

I could call it or we could go further and we're going to go further.

Crazy like a fox, right?

I love what he's saying.

It's in totally new country, but that is just being run by the 50s.

By the son of the guy that you took out who actually is more extreme and has a legitimate

axe to grind that you killed his entire family on top of the beliefs that he already had.

Trump was so all over in this press conference and I want to talk about it, but I also want

to bring what Marco Rubio said yesterday into the conversation because watching the

goal post shifting in real time is astounding.

The goals of this mission are clear and it's important to continue to remind the American

people of why it is that the greatest military in the history of the world is engaged in

this operation.

It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their

missiles and their launchers, destroy the factories that make these missiles and destroy

their navy.

Doesn't mention removing the regime doesn't talk about the nuclear program.

No mention of destroying around the ability to project power via proxy forces.

We're not talking about Hezbollah or Hamas or anything anymore.

They're trying to just clean up their toys and go, because they can't do what they set

out to do and they just fed us a bunch of talking points about how it actually would

be a completely new country.

We would be supporting these oppressed people who, by the way, we don't see any rallies

in the streets saying America come help us.

We just see death to America, death to Israel, and we know that between 1,300 innocent

Iranians have been killed at this point.

It feels like, except for taking down the Navy, they've taken down I think 42 major Iranian

vessels.

Smaller ships has been not as much of the priority, but the Navy part of that is definitely true.

But they're still producing drones like they were before and now Rubios telling us that

none of the story that we were sold is actually what we're going to get out of this.

Yeah, there's, it's like, what boxes are we looking to check here?

It's not even about mission accomplished.

It's what is the mission?

And we are on the precipice of potentially losing what was, I would argue, the biggest

objective or benefit of this action.

And that is, it seemed like early in the war, and this is a war when the IRGC made what

I think is the biggest blunder so far of sending projectiles into every Gulf nation.

We had the formation of a stronger, informal alliance between the US, Israel, and moderate

nations in the Gulf.

That would have been actually a really big win.

And now we're losing their support because the straights of foremost being blocked is

just an enormous disruption for the Gulf states.

Dubai, arguably one of the most successful urban sovereign centers in the world in the

UAE, kind of the 21st century Singapore, people want out, people are leaving, it looks

much more vulnerable than it ever has.

And it's not as if you can just turn off the tap and store this oil, you know, there

are real issues to oil build up.

They get dangerous.

These wells just, they're, they have oil flowing and the oil needs to go somewhere and

they can put it on ships, but then what do you do with the ships?

They're talking about naval armadas to escort ships through the straights of foremost, but

they haven't quite figured it out.

It just feels like again, it was half big.

And it feels as if right now, in order to salvage what I think was again, an enormous

upside to potentially to this war, they need to be more tightly knit with the Gulf nations

and say, how do we make the sacrifice we've all made here, a win for you and a more sustainable

piece across the region long term?

And it feels as if slowly but surely we're eroding all of that goodwill and starting to

throw Gulf nations back into the arms of the IRGC because we can't even seem to articulate

what it is we're trying to accomplish right now.

And the other thing I wanted to ask you was that those images, it felt post-apocalyptic

of the bombing of oil fields near Tehran and that kind of raining acidic black rain

and those fires felt very, very frightening and also I would argue that a real danger here

is the Balkanization and a potential civil war within Iran because typically you don't

get who you want in those situations.

And also to gut the economic livelihood of Iran right now is probably you lose an enormous

bargaining chip and just creates further instability which probably isn't good long term for

the region.

And then when Trump came out, when the president came out and said that quote unquote, it

got leaked that he was angry that Israel did this, that is such enormous bullshit.

I think the idea is essentially kind of the sixth branch of the US military right now.

They are coordinating 100% right now.

And this notion like, oh, these guys, these Israelis are out of control, but I'm the good

guy.

Let's negotiate.

It's just such, I just think that is such extraordinary bullshit that this is, that

be clear, Trump's in charge here.

But I think it was a huge mistake to go after the oil fields in Iran at this point.

What are your thoughts?

Well, having a better understanding of how intense the back channeling is between the US

and the Israelis and not just our government, but someone like Jared Kushner in that wide

ranging presser that Trump gave yesterday, he actually said, based on what Jared Kushner

told me, I thought Iran would attack us.

Not based on why our intel agencies were telling us, but what my son-in-law, who has a lot

of friends, who help him make a lot of money in the region, is telling us, and you're

completely right.

I think that they had the same reaction that we all did when they saw Tehran and golfed

in flames and thought, holy shit, this one is bad, right, especially on day, or is it

day eight of this war?

But what has been interesting to see in David Ignatius wrote about this in the Washington

Post yesterday that apparently a few senior officials in Israel are voicing concerns about

the escalating open-ended attack on Iran.

So that would imply that they thought that it could be more surgical.

I don't know if they're being dismissive of our military capabilities and then kind

of saying, we gave you everything, right, like we told you where they were having brunch.

We had a red light on their forehead, essentially, to be able to do this and you guys are not

living up to our expectation or just an acknowledgement that everybody failed in assessing

how Iran would react to this because there's this machismo that we have, Pete Hegg, Seth,

right, beating his chest saying, there's nobody like us, there's nobody like us, and there

is nobody like us.

But Iranian government, the IRGC and the new Supreme Leader are not hankering to get to

the table with us.

They're going to run out the clock.

They're yolowing this and they're making the other Gulf states suffer.

I mean, they're 14 countries involved right now for something that they marketed at the

beginning as a surgical strike, right, that we could be out of here in the U.S.

Special combat operation.

Right, which can be very open-ended, but we're talking about 14 countries.

And they're just telling people to pull up their big boy pants and go through the

street of Hormuz when that's certain death, right, just get your tankers through.

And I think it is interesting and important that Trump spent an hour on the phone with

Putin yesterday.

So when they came out and said, we're not bothered by the fact that the Russians are not only

supplying drones, but are apparently giving targeting information for Americans.

Yeah, so he's gone to Putin and I mean, who knows what he actually said, but Pete Hegg

Seth says that it was a very sharp conversation.

He told them back off and also we want peace for Ukraine as if that matters.

You know, this is turning into a global problem, right?

There is nothing small time about what's going on here.

And it feels like all the wrong people are smiling at what they're seeing.

And I don't know if you caught this, but CNN got a journalist into Iran, invited in to

talk to a foreign policy advisor to the new Supreme Leader.

And so you're watching a communications and marketing campaign play out as well, right?

So on multiple fronts, it seems like flares are going up that we are not moving towards

any of the mission goals that were originally outlined, maybe rubios, lower grade goals will

be accomplished or could be accomplished, but mostly that Jim Himes was right and that

we are going to try to find an off ramp with as little humiliation as possible.

And Trump will do a big, you know, truth social post and move on to Cuba.

OK, let's take a quick break.

Stay with us.

Everyone's heard of a midlife crisis, but what about a mid career crisis?

Turns out countless people are going through one right now.

For some, they're starting to feel they've hit a wall that there's no room for growth,

no new opportunities, promotions pass them by raises or few and far between.

Others worry they're becoming replaceable, either by younger talent or by technology.

And still others find themselves asking over and over, is this all there is?

If any of this feels familiar, it's time to visit strawberry dot me, where a certified

career coach will work with you to get you out of your rut and help you move forward,

either at your current job or by helping you land a new, more rewarding one.

Your strawberry coach will help you turn a mid career crisis into a mid career revival.

Go to strawberry dot me slash unstuck and get 50% off your first coaching session.

That's strawberry dot me slash unstuck.

Now is the most affordable time ever to find out if career coaching is right for you.

This is advertiser content brought to you by Stonyfield Organic.

Our cows, them going out to pasture, they love it.

They're so excited to go out every day.

They weight-rated the drawing.

In fact, we milk them and we just open up the laneway and let them just go right out to pasture.

I'm Rhonda Miller Goodrich and I'm a dairy farmer in Cabot Vermont.

Our farm is Molly Brook Farm, we're an organic dairy farm and we are a supplier to Stonyfield.

Molly Brook Farm has been in my husband's family since 1835.

We started our organic transition in 2015.

We had 53 acres of corn ground and of course we had to use herbicides and pesticides and

the soil was dead, really for all intense purposes.

We stopped growing corn and stopped using herbicides and pesticides and we seeded that

down to perennial grasses.

After that we began to see biodiversity in that soil again.

To be organic certified, our cows need to be in pasture at least 120 days.

I think the organic practices really benefit our animals.

Having good feed, good water, a nice light area, that's what's important to us and that's

what's important to Stonyfield.

Visit Stonyfield.com to find Stonyfield organic yogurt near you.

Yeah, it does appear that the market is more optimistic about this work coming to a close.

I mean, essentially, oil has come back from, I think, a high of $112 to approximately,

I think it's right now trading at about 83 bucks, so it's come down substantially.

It's off 12% just on the last day.

Do you think that's because of Trump's comment or what do you think that's a result of?

You know, that's the correct question.

The honest answer is I don't know.

I think that it's looking increasingly like the regime is going to survive here.

And also that there's increasing pressure to, if you will, declare victory on leave.

But the markets which absorb millions of points of information and are unemotional, non-political,

which is pure fear and greed, seem to be saying that the Straits of Hormuz will eventually,

or sooner rather than later, be open.

That would be a function of one or two things, our ability to create convoys to escort

ships safely, or that this conflict is going to come to some sort of resolution or start

to wind down.

And given what I've heard, it's more the latter.

I don't think the Trump administration has been able to instill a great deal of confidence

and they'll be able to create safe passage if this conflict continues at the same level

of intensity it is right now.

But the markets seem to be saying, and the S&P is flat and almost looks pretty boring

over the last few days, that this will be over sooner rather than later.

The issue is again, and I don't understand why they aren't creating a series of objectives

declaring that they could say they've already met as the president said.

And then the most important thing, and the problem is, this isn't a president that appreciates

diplomacy to get all of the Gulf nations together and say, we've all made huge sacrifices

here.

How do we make this a win for all of you moving forward?

What is it you want to make sure?

And they might say, just get the fuck out of here, or is it you want us to ensure that

the launch capabilities are further neutered?

Do you want to make sure that the Navy is totally unable to have any sort of mining capability

or to deploy mines in the states of Hormuz?

But I would argue that Secretary Rubio should be getting all the Gulf states in a room and

saying, how do we make this a win for all of us, including you?

Because to me again, the biggest benefit coming out of this would be if we isolate Iran

through an alliance with all the Gulf countries, including Israel, and such that they have

faith that we are in fact a really strong responsible partner because it feels as if every

day that is weakening, and again, we are shoving them back into the arms of Iran, which

is really from a foreign policy perspective, in my view, on a metal level, the biggest

mistake of the Trump administration and Secretary Rubio, and that is their under the impression

with a third of the world's GDP, we can take on the other two thirds.

We used to be able to do that because we cooperated, and we were the operating system for

college six years, 70% of the world's military and GDP.

But going at it alone is contrary to every basic notion of strategy in geopolitics, and

that is the most successful geopolitical action, or where the whole is greater than some

of its parts because of cooperation in a unified West.

We had a moment, and I think still think we have that moment, where I don't want to say

the West, but call it capitalist, or the modern world comes together and presents a united

front to Iran and other rogue nations that includes the Gulf states, and that was the

moment.

It feels like that moment is passing, any thoughts before we move on here, Jess?

No, I agree with you, and I'm thinking about next month Trump goes to Beijing, or is

supposed to, and what do we look like for that meeting?

I mean, this has to be done by then, right?

I would presume, and it seems like the off-ramps are happening, but I am concerned about that.

What the perception is of our capabilities, how strong our leadership is, how much they're

thinking through important alliances all over the world that can counteract the influence

of China, and make sure that Beijing doesn't have our proverbial number.

Everyone should listen to China decode.

They talk about this all the time, which is another proxy media podcast, but I definitely

wonder if that's in the back of their minds as they're trying to de-escalate from this,

that there are proverbially speaking bigger, fish to fry, and there would be a way to keep

Iran more in check through diplomacy, and it's diplomacy plus business deals, because

everybody just wants to get richer, and they're willing to compromise on a whole host of things

if that's possible.

But the time for that big meeting that you were just talking about was before these strikes

happened two Saturdays ago, and I wonder if cluing in the Gulf states more as to what the

US and Israel were thinking, trusted partners, not just broadcasting it over social media,

but having real diplomatic conversations about the concerns that we have about missile

capabilities, nuclear capabilities, whatever it is, on top of the talks with the Omanis

and the Iranians to try to get a new nuclear deal would have been to our benefit, and

it's going to be very hard to make it up to these countries after all is said and done

when we have spent billions of their dollars, because they've had to defend themselves,

and we're helping with munitions and money, but there's still a great cost to each of these

nations who I think thought generally speaking were just making business deals with this guy,

and our new allies in Israel as well as as far as economic cooperation goes, and now there's

bloodshed, and there's a whole lot of money flying out of our door, and who is going to refill

our stockpile, because we didn't plan on a March war with Iran, right? That wasn't on our schedule,

and I don't know how you repair those kinds of relationships, especially when they're so new.

You know, there's something to these long-term alliances that we've had, and I hold out faith that

the European Alliance, the NATO Alliance, etc., that will carry on with us far into the future,

but Gulf nations are new friends to a large degree, and I don't think that we're showing up

properly when it comes to conflict. Maybe we are in business development and building a new

resort wherever, but I think the last 10 days have shown that we're a pretty unreliable partner,

and that we will spend your money, and you will shed blood for us, and I'm not sure what you get

on the other side. Yeah, so just looking at some of the polls, 36% of U.S. residents approve of

how Trump is dealing with Iran. A better way to say that is 64% don't approve. 86% of Democrats

are more than 61% of independent, supposed U.S. military action in Iran, and talk about a nation

divided 84% of Republicans, either strongly support or support American military involvement in

the region. 70% of Republicans up from 64% to 2025, versus even Iran to be a major threat.

27% of Democrats down from 38% share this view. So again, how do you feel about this? Ask me if

you're a Democrat or a Republican or... So everyone is against boots on the ground.

Yeah, that seems to be something that's not part of the sand. That's a lot in the sand.

You brought that up from the very beginning. Also what you brought up, I thought it was really

interesting I hadn't considered, was that your generation since 9-11, where a lot of people signed

up and felt like they got a bad deal, is especially opposed to boots on the ground.

There's also this story that just came out, I think Axios had the scoop that back in August,

the Ukrainians, who have been begging us for more support, right, for the Tomahawk missiles,

that would have really helped when we got into trouble even, because of the effect on Russia,

that they tried to sell this battle-proven tech for downing Iranian drones. They did a whole

PowerPoint presentation, and we basically said, no, thank you. They said, no, this is going to be

really good if you need to go up against folks in the Middle East, like Iran, and they were dismissed,

and apparently there's a lot of regret within the administration, which totally makes sense,

like Koda Wada Shura, but I don't know how other countries are thinking more about our well-being

or planning ahead better than we were, and it's just so ironic, of course, that it's the Ukrainians,

right, that were the ones that came to us and said, if you get into this kind of mess,

this is the way that we can help you get out of it, and now, last minute, we've had to call them,

and they have come to our aid, but the fact that there was literally a PowerPoint presentation

is blowing my mind this morning. Well, I think one of the learnings is going to come out of this,

is the same learning that's coming out of the Ukraine more, and that is asymmetric warfare,

and that is our Tomahawk's costs, millions, and the Shaheed drones, I believe, cost. 20K.

It's 20K. We spend $4 million for $20,000 to come out.

Yeah, and it's, I don't know, like, what is it? Revenge is a...

A cruel mistress. Revenge is a dish master cold. I just love the idea of the American

slaining on the Ukrainians for military advice. Anyways, all right, Jess, before we go,

some big news. We'll be at South by Southwest this weekend. Yeah, right, in the great state of Texas.

I'm so excited. I know we 80 degrees. It's been nice here the last couple of days.

It's been beautiful to that. Nothing like eight, I know.

So we'll be at South by Southwest. If you're down there, and you see either Jess or me,

please say hi. We do, we're friendly. Also, in addition to now being five days a week,

raging moderates is now available on Substack. Subscribers will get ad free episodes,

livestreams, and a place to engage with Jess and me and other listeners. Find us at

ragingmoderates.provedgameda.com. Again, that's ragingmoderates.provedgameda.com. That's all for

this episode. Thank you for so much for joining us today. See you later.