The Week in Markets: A successful IPO shows animal spirits returning to private markets

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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A survey done by the National Federation of Independent Business finds a surge of optimism among small business owners in the United States since the election. Meanwhile, not one of the world’s largest economies is expected to be in a recession next year. That sentiment is reflected in the world stock market index, which is back to touching the upper band of its ascending channel, for the first time since late 2021. A large venture capital-backed unicorn has a successful IPO last week, despite still being loss making. With 27% of the S&P 500 index’s market capitalisation in just five companies, concentration in the stock market is at an all-time high. But concentration has never been a useful predictor for forward returns; in fact high levels of concentration have historically coincided with good forward returns.