The Week in Markets: Good economic data eases recession concerns

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rising 2.6% y/y in July is a perfectly acceptable reading for the market. Excluding the notoriously lagged housing component, it would be 2.1%, right where the Federal Reserve (Fed) wants it to be. However, inflation has less relevance for the market now that the Fed has made it clear that its focus is on employment. Initial jobless claims have returned to 230,000, and the Q2 annualised GDP has been revised upwards to 3.0% q/q, both suggesting that the economy is far from entering a recession. The Chinese government may allow homeowners to refinance as much as USD5.4trn of mortgages, which would be good for consumer sentiment. The dollar/renminbi exchange rate has broken an important support line. A rising renminbi tends to lift other Asian currencies. Usually, when money goes into a currency, the assets denominated in that currency see a lift too.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.