The Week in Markets: History is on the stock market’s side

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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The 10-year treasury yield is breaking down as it anticipates rate cuts. This is mostly due to a tightening job market, especially for entry-level candidates and young people. We look for a series of rate cuts, starting this week and ending next March. An interesting statistic to note: in the 20 other times since 1980 when the Fed cut at, or near an all-time high in the S&P 500 index, the index was up a year later in every case.

Meanwhile, global fund manager interest in China is high, but it’s been so long they’ve looked at that market, that they need time to do their homework before investing. Additionally, a weighted average basket of emerging market currencies recently broke a 14-year downward resistance channel.