The Week in Markets: Recent economic data confirms cooling, but gives no hint of recession

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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August employment data show a labour market that is continuing to cool, but not at an alarming rate. The three Federal Reserve officials spoke last week all hinted the impending rate cut cycle could be an aggressive one. But the futures market is still pricing a higher chance of a 25 basis point cut than a 50 basis point one at next week’s meeting. Most political analysts expect Vice President Harris to fare less well than former President Trump in this week’s debate, so there is more upside for her. But for the first time, renowned political statistician Nate Silver’s Electoral College model puts Trump ahead of Harris.