The West unprepared: Russia’s coming nuclear offensive

0:00Welcome to another edition of Trevor Loud reports on America Loud loud. Today we got one of the great guests Jeff Nyquist. Jeff's a long time political commentator is a historian, a military historian. I know nobody who is more objective on international fears will communism than Jeff. He's a non-cycle walking-side verperia and can be trusted to give an objective view whether that's positive or negative of current world events. So Jeff you've just written a new article. You put it on your website. Can you give the website's

1:04name and the name of the article please? Yeah it's uh, uh, jarne Nyquist.blog.jar.nyqua.ust. I'll blog and the title of the article is a psychopath's dream, the nuclear option. Yeah very provocative. So this is from what I've gathered talking to you you're laying out the Putin using the nuclear option in Ukraine to end the war and terrorize Europe. Is that is that accurate? Yeah I am basically explaining in very granular detail what's going on in Russia, in United States with the leadership, the media, the mentality, the social changes and how this is the right moment, right? This is the nuclear moment and the Russians are saying it they've been primed for it there. You could say that Putin is in a long line of

2:11you could say criminal psychopathic murderous leaders in Russia going back to Lenin and in that great evolution of people of sort of semi-human beings you have these brilliant people that existed half a century ago, the Marshall Sokolovsky, Colonel Siderenko, Skurdow, you've got various authors in writing Soviet military strategy textbooks for military officers and everything they wrote was hey how you win a war nuclear bombardment, nuclear weapons, theater nuclear war, all arms, global nuclear war in which you combine large armies of people and nuclear weapons and you just blast your way through

3:12the enemy lines, capture surround, you don't need really highly effective units because they're gonna be they're gonna be suffering for radiation and nuclear counter strikes so you just make an army of cannon fodder like the army they've been sporting in Ukraine because the main killing is not done by your army they're just doing them up and up the main killing is done by your nuclear weapons. So okay now so please explain this so you're not talking about an all-out Russian global attack you're talking about a very targeted simultaneous attacks on Ukrainian forces using smaller or tactical nukes is that accurate? Yeah and it could involve more if the United States counter-acts with nukes to stop the Russian offensive then it would become a strategic question then

4:13bases in Europe and the United States would have to be bombed but yeah they I mean the theater nuclear offensive if there is resistance nuclear resistance like from France or Britain too then the strategic nuclear strikes will have to happen and of course you know it's the concept there's a brilliant simplicity in the Soviet military writings which our experts have ignored for decades because they thought this is too incredible they don't really believe this but they do you know in designing this idea of a theater nuclear offensive and I think when you listen to them now you know they used to say oh no we can't have a nuclear war in Ukraine because the Ukrainians are Russians and there are brothers but now they're saying look we're fighting NATO they are taking out our oil refineries they're using drones to kill Russians on Russian soil they've created the pretext that Americans are killing Russians now that NATO that

5:18European technology or missiles storm shadow missiles what have you are being used or they're going to be used to kill Russians on Russian soil this is all over the Russian media you have three major prime time Russian television hosts and they are talking about nuclear war you've got a top a Kremlin advisor openly saying look we're obligated to do nuclear war now we're obligated to do nuclear use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and maybe against some of the places in Europe that are supporting Ukraine because you know the Americans we're not supporting Ukraine in the number one spot is Germany our support has gone way down it's Germany that's carrying the load here but the British too I mean the Russians recently withdrew their ambassador to Great Britain and their threatening Great Britain with nuclear attacks you you you have Japan is being threatened actually because Japan on

6:21July 1st the Ukrainian foreign minister went to Japan and they formed a kind of Japan and you create a form to kind of pact and and the Russians are calling it a kind of alliance and they're not going to allow it so they're making a stink about the Kira Islands and how Japan is you know this terrible country so these signs are in the Soviet media a major member of the Duma has been actually two members of the Duma have been saying on Russian television we need to use nukes we you know and I think one of them said something like and and that's the way it's gonna be and there's no arguing about it this is the way it's being put now the Kremlin is saying nothing but you can bet this is not a political system where people get their own initiative or people are expressing their own opinion these are trial balloons but I think they're more

7:25than that because they're really being put on Russian TV and they it's been alluded to on Russian TV before but what they're doing is they're preparing the Russian public for the use of nuclear weapons because if you look at the text the the military text like Sokolovsky's you know he's the big grand strategist of the Soviet Union if you look at his text he says you have to prepare the morale of the people because in nuclear war you're asking for massive sacrifices from people so you you're obligated to prepare their minds and this word obligated it appears in their text and they're using it on Russian TV we are obligated to tell you this we're obligated to prepare your mind we're obligated to use the weapons so if you if you you know if you look at it you know Russia is really losing the war right now aren't they they are

8:26suffering you know they're making tiny incremental gains on the battlefield still in certain places but they are they are losing you know million soldiers they've lost well over a million soldiers they can't replace the existing ones their Navy has been seriously damaged their oil refining capacity has been hugely damaged this is causing major economic problems their attacks on their their retail infrastructure you know their their their amazet wildberries etc so what else can they do you know if they surrender if they leave the Ukraine war and let Ukraine win and God forbid even take back Crimea would the Russian regime last you know would they would they be able to maintain order in their own country and I'm sure this is what Putin is looking at this is what the

9:26Soloviki the leadership are looking at we have to win a new crane otherwise we are done and so you know faced with a choice between their own destruction and destroying Ukraine with nuclear weapons what what would they logically choose well recently it was reported that one of Putin's this leaked out from Putin staff he told one of his staff he said if I don't win they're gonna hang me exactly you know exactly so so what's Putin gonna do you know he might have been reluctant to use nukes on a neighboring country because that'll have implications for his own but when it comes to a choice between his own regime being destroyed and losing his life and the risk of nuclear weapons in Ukraine what what's what's logically gonna do well they've been very cautious and and and of course they are

10:26they are congratulating themselves on Russian TV for their restraint that they haven't done it already now and you know I thought maybe that Putin was a coward he wasn't gonna do it I make in the article I go in detail I make an argument a sociological argument for what may have happened here within because we can't see inside the the Russian regime because it's it's very opaque and they're their secretive and you can't always trust reports from inside regimes like that but what we are seeing if we look on the outside is we're seeing a an incapacity to handle a certain situation similar to Trump in the Middle East similar to President Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam similar to George W. Bush being stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan after thinking he could he could win

11:30quickly and painlessly and the people would just run out and embrace embrace American democracy it just it just doesn't work that way and so I think the other scenario the the explanation that might be the correct one is that he tried to invade the country Ukraine conventionally and a blitzkrieg the FSB planned it it was largely they were supposed to you know this is Yavghani all about she's a daughter of a GRU general and a journalist she's in living in ex-Sol and the United States here she actually said the whole reason the offensive failed was there weren't as many traders in Ukraine and many of the agents they thought were agents that would turn over whole regions without you know much fighting it didn't happen that way the the Ukrainians had doubled back people on them had fed them disinformation so the offensive which was you

12:32know basically a bunch of C grade troops except for the paratroopers they lost trying to take you have they were C grade troops that just simply were out of their depth for doing what they were doing without having traders inside the enemy camp and she explained as she explained this is why it failed and of course this is due to you know Putin's overreliance on his security services on his own branch the KGB what we used to call the KGB it the Ukrainians also were part of the KGB they knew the methods if anybody could double back an agent on you because the Americans sure can't do it are the Ukrainians you know another former Soviet republic could beat you at that game what you're saying is is the Russians thought they had enough of their agents and Ukraine to basically just roll over them and go belly up but the Ukrainians had identified many of

13:36these agents rather than expose them had basically turned them back against turned the back against their Russian masters yeah and so you did have some go over especially in the south you know in in Zapparogia and and in the the southern oblasts when they made it almost to the gate they thought Nikolayev was going to fall and Nikolayev is the the base main naval base it's just up a river for the Ukrainians and that's just a little bit east of Odessa they sank their destroyer they scuttled it thinking that the city was gonna fall but the city didn't fall and so Ukrainians held on and the offensive around Kiev the Russians had to withdraw because they had overextended their supply lines and they weren't succeeding in capturing the city and this of course I mean Putin even gave parade said look take your parade uniforms for the parade in Kiev

14:39and of course a lot of the generals and troops took parade uniforms there wasn't gonna be a parade in you can you can give it that time because they didn't make it there they just got slaughtered and of course you mentioned their casualties this year they have lost an average of 36,000 men a month it's more than a thousand men a day one month here they lost over 40,000 men so it's it's it's really disastrous and they're losing territory now in in the south they're not able to hold on to the ground in a lot of these places now they're trying to storm the fortress belt in Donbass through infiltration tactics and they're making a little bit of progress but they're losing a lot of guys and so I think what naturally occurs then with these failures that you've described and that we've seen over there what you've got is you've got good old General Gorassimov the chief of the General Staff who started his military

15:40education at the age of 18 in 1973 well in 1973 this material by especially a Ciderenco whose book The Offensive came out in 1970 they were reading that that was their text that's what they were studying he was infused with this nuclear war fighting solution now when you have not the the the the real brilliant people when you have people who were educated under their system and you've got Putin who is not is you know he doesn't have Stalin's hat size right he's not as smart as Stalin you've got people who are not as smart not as creative they're they can't come up with a different strategy to win all they have the only thing they have in in in their bullpen so to speak is to pitch a nuclear ball that's all they've got and and it's simple it's something

16:44they can understand because the other way it was written because in designing their theater nuclear offensive the old Soviet strategist selected as their pointed departure the idea that a nuclear fire barrage of tactical nuclear weapons at the front at specific strong points could be could give the the conventional military units an opportunity to break through surround the different other strong points and capture the country very quickly without having to have really elite or effective ground forces you just need a bunch of guys with guns to collect the surrendering defending force to cut them off from their supply lines and meanwhile they're shaking in their boots because they're expecting a nuclear barrage themselves you know the the other surviving troops is a psychological shock effect with nuclear weapons and they're really hoping that this psychological shock effect if they really use the weapons

17:44imagine Europe oh my gosh they'd use weapons not only is Europe not ready for drones but they're certainly not ready for drones with nuclear weapons right yes so so how this would work and so and I think this was the strategy they're going to use back in the 80s when they came within a heirs bread to invading NATO I think in 1983 yes so you so you use nukes fight into the air rather than the ground so it doesn't contaminate the ground too much and then you you you hit strong points and then you drive your troops through those those points and you're you're they're going to get radiation but that's tough they're just a C grade troops anyway they get through that breakthrough they surround the remaining Ukrainian forces from behind they cut them off and those remaining Ukrainian forces are terrified they're going to be the next to nuke so they quickly surrender and the whole defense of line collapses and

18:48and Ukraine is basically underfunded from that point is that is that how it works yeah it's a nuclear blitzkrieg right the air bursts of nuclear weapons permit the more complete utilization of the shock wave and thermal thermal radiation for the destruction of the enemy and this is these are the exact quote from Ciderinco's book and you can destroy units in open drain or units in field fortifications you could destroy targets over a large area and and if you can do the strikes right or it's not there will be accidents right your troops won't be contaminated the ground won't be contaminated now you're gonna have some contamination some troops are gonna get fatal doses of radiation but they won't die right away you know they'll be able to function for a couple days until what they've been exposed to starts to affect their health so that and that's all you need you know you just need to defeat their the enemy and soldiers are as Napoleon once said soldiers

19:49are meant to let themselves be killed that was a quote from Napoleon so that's that's how it works it's very simple and so it's a it very much appeals to someone like Putin who needs a simple solution and it's right there I just every former Soviet military officer has those books on his shelf see I think it was general who's who's the guy general no the the Russian propagandist in this country Colonel McGregor Colonel McGregor Colonel that's yeah he predicted earlier that you said Russia this year Russia would win a very ugly victory in Ukraine now this would be a very ugly victory would it not if I can pull us off yeah of course he's a guy who predicted in the 10th day of

20:51the war that that that wasn't gonna go on more than 10 days you know almost five years ago his is somebody put up a bunch of his statements and and about the war saying oh they've lost already it's already done it's a done deal you know over and over again but now he's saying something that's true it will be ugly because they can't win any other way and they Nordic intelligence of the Nordic countries says that you know we we've Lee Wheelbarger and Johnny Anderson have been looking at this and they they were all excited they had found like over a hundred or nearly a hundred new encampments new new base encampments on the needle borders and of course they then discovered that the Dutch had come out the Dutch military said look there's a hundred and twenty five new

21:51military encampments and the Nordic intelligence services say that these are encampments for a hundred and fifteen thousand or Russian troops that are going to be positioned guess what on their border on the finished border so this is they have actually months ago more than a year ago they started building these encampments so there's a there's a plan here they're gonna have so where are they gonna get a hundred and fifteen thousand troops mobilization but also when they defeat Ukraine their troops aren't going home they're going to need those border and and the main need of border by the way that is directly with Russia is Finland yeah yeah and Finland wasn't even part of NATO until recently mm-hmm that one that on the bug really quickly so so you're talking about the use of

22:52new concern Ukraine to quickly overwhelm Ukraine's defenders and simultaneous attacks on the Baltic States that that's what you think is most likely here I think now there's you know we'll barger disagrees with this he thinks that Russia's gonna take on NATO and Ukraine at the same time I've been thinking about it you know they could cut off Ukraine by going into part of Poland but I think when you when you use nuclear weapons you you you you you have a kind of all or none problem you you can't just say oh excuse me I'm using nuclear weapons so I'm just gonna cross your border you know 30 miles and cut off Ukraine no you've committed an active war which I think most people would not forgive and you're risking nuclear war coming back at you you in a way you have to go all out and you you don't need a distraction of having a war with Ukraine at the

23:53same time you want to finish Ukraine off first before you go into NATO I think it is an old Soviet practice Stalin did it Stalin invaded Poland but he didn't invade Poland and in Finland at the same time invaded Poland then he invaded Finland right when he was finished cleaning up in Poland then he invaded the Baltic States then he invaded Bezarebia and Bukovina in Romania and then he invaded you know Persia so he invaded a number of countries but he did them one at a time right so you think that's a more likely scenario yeah I think that is more likely because it's good to be able to register the reaction in Europe when the Russians actually use the weapons because the Europeans then you have a chance to having countries leaving NATO maybe some countries joining

24:55you because they don't want to be crushed in a nuclear war that's the hope anyway and certainly get Japan to stop cooperating with Europe or well in this case Ukraine get them to shut up and sit down there is a problem with that because what we've seen since the beginning of the war is something that frankly surprised me given the amount of infiltration of the West by Russian agents as you had you had enough spunk that Europe started helping Ukraine almost immediately even before the America did Biden was holding back the Europeans especially Boris Johnson when he was Prime Minister of Britain really pitched in and these countries saw the danger wanted to prevent the Soviet Union from being put back together again and that's really what the invasion of Ukraine is about and President Zelensky and his interview with Laura Lumer said this they invaded Ukraine he said to put the Soviet Union back

25:57together again I think that's very clear that was clear to me from the beginning so you were surprised as I was a little bit how resolute Europe was even people like Macron who I thought would be the last one to make a stand you know have made a stand you know Mertz in Germany is one of the key ones but you also have a NATO you have in the EU you have a few pro-Russian states in there who have helped things up and notably Hungary which is thankfully is no longer controlled by Orbán so we have to call a break in a minute but when ever scenario envelopes how quickly do you think we'll see it is this a year away as is a month away what what do you think I think it's it's it's within the next six months and the reason I think that is is this this the doom elections I think

27:02are going to be used as a way of measuring the the readiness psychological readiness of the Russian people and so if if their calculations are continuing if the Russian people allow it by the way they vote then the scenario will be unlocked and the Russian leaders will say all right we have 30% or 40% support we have enough support to continue because basically with the strategy like this you just need about a third of the population and you can sort of do it and not have any major problems and so they're going to have a mobilization sometime either in the middle of the mobilization or at the end of it in six months they're going to start the nuclear phase that that could be you know next March they could they could wait I suppose until May or June but that would mean an even bigger mobilization but they are according to some sources going

28:05to mobilize about a hundred thousand men a month now it could be much larger than that and it could be extended a little longer I will see but they they look cool right here it's the cool right here sorry Jeff we'll come back to this right after this is this the right during treatment the structure of tap water gets messed up yes we have to purify water but what are we doing to fix the water structure so the body can actually absorb it that is why we created our lab certified structured water devices these devices restore water molecules back to their natural structure just like a mountain stream making them highly observable it's not how much you drink it's how much you absorb that counts better hydration better energy all day get one for your home or on the go at chemicalfreebody.com for slash out loud for an exclusive discount that's chemical free body dot com for slash out loud are you struggling with thinning hair or excessive shedding I know I am discover roots from the wellness company it's a doctor formulated hydrogel with seven powerful peptides that help repair and

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31:12poison isle America out loud dot news is that place to awaken your heart soul and mind to the outlook welcome back to America out loud with the travel out reports with fascinating conversation and a chilling one with Jeff Nyquist so you're talking about a big mobilization in Russia which would be used in conjunction with the new to put the Ukraine problem to be at once and for all as a step towards confronting the rest of Eastern Europe and NATO so you're saying this could happen within six months or maybe even less possibly yeah it could happen any time depends on the west reaction it depends on how smoothly the mobilization goes and how many men there

32:14ultimately going to put in the field when you start a nuclear war you need a number of armies already on the field because you're going to have very high casualties and if the if the war becomes strategic a nuclear war your system of mobilization might be might break down so the more men you have raised before you fire the first nuke the better and they're not raising and it's important to say this because this is the really the first time in the war we've seen this they're not proposing to raise troops to just replace their losses this is 600,000 men in two three hundred thousand man increments this is more than they would need to replace their losses these are new formations they're creating and as I point out in the article they have a system invisible division system where every division commander has two deputies and his brigade commanders have two deputies and the battalion commanders have two deputies so you just

33:17throw in 10,000 additional soldiers and these deputies become second secondary division commanders of the units in that division so so you can actually create and it just it's like two cells splitting in you where you had one you have two now you consider a double your forces overnight yes very quickly and this is how they beat the Germans in World War two they had the system so that the Germans thought they're fighting you know 150 divisions oh wait they're fighting three hundred right right and so and then they're fighting 600 because they kept doing it they kept when they would form a new division they would they would come up with an extra you know a deputy division commander etc and and so they were able to continue to to mobilize units it's a very interesting method for mobilizing it doesn't create elite forces by no means but it creates more forces and you know as Stalin said quantity is a quality

34:24all of its own yeah yeah yeah what it what is one of my favorite Stalin quotes somebody asked him what he what he thought of the Pope you know did he fear the Pope and he says well how many divisions does the Pope have yeah that's what they they think in terms of of quantum they think in terms of mass don't they yeah and all that there are elite troops but that's not you know just huge numbers plus nukes yep or beat any number of special forces and there's there's a lot of evidence that the Chinese have a dot have this same system I mean China was so vietized in the in the 1950s and it was full of Russian advisors their military received a lot of training from the Russians they I think they ultimately received the bomb from Russia although Russia pretended not to give them the bomb by having the Sinosovian split but they did get the bomb Mao got the bomb in 1964 so and and the thing is is the Chinese are building

35:28nuclear weapons like sausages and they have changed their mobilization procedures as of October 1st Chinese going to have a a freshly minted method for mobilizing its armed forces that's interesting that they would make these kind of adjustments at the same time that the Russians are about to go through a big mobilization if if they go through with it which is you know what Ukrainian intelligence is saying what some other intelligence are saying that they are going to do this mobilization yeah yeah and and look it's hard to argue why they wouldn't and it's hard to argue why they wouldn't use technical nukes because you know you imagine the consequences for Russia have been defeated by Ukraine which is which is happening right now in real time you know how how can they allow this to happen how can the Chinese sit back and allow their

36:28Russian allies to to to lose there'll be a big impact on their on their economy on their military on their public opinion as well this is this is not just Russia at stake here this is a whole evil empire yeah they have this phrase in the Russian military books it's called preparing the morale of the people and it's under the the chapter in in Soviet military strategy of preparing the whole country for war you prepare the military you prepare the economy and you prepare the people and preparing the people is largely a psychological operation it's an information operation it's it's it's it's it's to prepare the mind of the people now you think about here in the US or in Europe if someone were to mention talk about nuclear war on television they

37:29they would not be wanted on TV anymore oh no we don't talk about using nuclear weapons no lever now any member of Congress said we we need to use nuclear weapons in Iran they would receive heavy criticism if their career was still viable it might not be at that point but in Russia no these people do not get punished for saying this they are almost certainly primed to say it because it is not a political system where people take the initiative and say what they're thinking what they're really thinking right as it's that's how you go to prison in Russia is to say what you're really thinking you know these people are expressing the secret inner thought of the regime of the Kremlin see this is an interesting point because not only is the Western countries not preparing their people for war and nuclear war they're actively encouraging any thought of the possibility you know I think this is the Trump administrations big down for you know you look at the battle over data centers

38:33we need data centers to help us when we are fighting Russia and China and the left the communist and DSA etc are getting these data center projects stopped because Trump just talks about the economic benefits he's not willing at all to say these are military these are a military necessity why are they a military necessity because we could be facing war with Russia and China he is not willing to go there the Republican Party isn't willing to go there are no government since Reagan has been willing to go there and so a war in New X in Europe would be beyond should they won't be so shocking for Russians because they're prepared for it but they'll be super shocking for Americans and Europeans will they not oh the think about how our morale has been prepared right no we haven't been prepared because we were told oh nuclear weapons are the end of the world that's the opposite of being prepared because if we

39:36think the use of nuclear weapons of the end of the world was at the end of Hiroshima no the city's still there the street cars were operating the day after we bombed them with the nuclear weapon the thing is the yeah there were a hundred thousand casualties in Hiroshima on that day in 1945 and I think fifty sixty thousand casualties in Nagasaki but the city's continued half the population of Hiroshima survived the attack right so more than half of Nagasaki survived the attack so life continues everybody doesn't die it's not instant death but it's it's a death of a lot of people that get to direct hits right and then there's leukemias and cancers that people will get in the years following because of the radiation but it doesn't bring about the end of the world and I think Peter Pry and his his two volume work on the nuclear balance and why it matters outlines the real effects of nuclear weapons which

40:39are not end of the world effects but they are effects that really make the choice for a totalitarian leader a leader in the tradition of Stalin or Mao who killed you know people by the tens of millions it's the kind of decision that they are fully capable of making because they have killed so many people already and their own lives are at stake now yes I'm glad you raised that because we have seen military flights we have tracked them military flights from not only from Moscow but from Minsk the capital of Belarus to the underground city areas in the Urals where the bunkers are for the leaders and their families and these are these are absolutely nuclear proof underground cities they are more than a thousand feet underground where nuclear weapons can can't reach because you know we develop tunneling missiles to attack their normal bunkers back during the Cold War you know this they believe it or not a missile that

41:43could just literally plunge into the ground and go you know 400 feet and end that night these underground cities are deeper than that and they're in mountains in the Urals they're tunneled into mountains they're connected by underground rail tunnels miles and miles of rail tunnels underground factories the Russian copper industry for example is located almost entirely underground in the Urals a lot of Russian heavy industries are there there's more than 300 thousand workers out operating in those factories out there and there at the whole place is meant to keep running through a nuclear war and they've been stockpiling the raw materials to keep it running during a nuclear war we have nothing like that in the United States we don't have it in our our heavy industry underground we we said our heavy industry to China you know yeah yeah yeah so so you're saying elites are already flying too refuge yes there are they've have been additional flights from Minsk and that have been tracked from Minsk and

42:46Moscow there and this happened at the outset of the war in Ukraine there a lot of people flew their families out there because maybe they thought it would go nuclear because there was a prospect remember nobody knew how NATO would react on the extreme and NATO might have sent troops into Ukraine to fight with the Russians and and of course that could have easily escalated to nuclear options then so they sent their families away once it appeared that NATO was not going in with its own troops into Ukraine to defend it they brought their families back but now they're going again which is a sign that some things about to happen so here's the interest the 64 thousand dollar question so so this happens well okay it's probably going to happen more more than likely after the November mid-Sunes and so the Democrats could hold that take the House or the Republicans could hold it who knows it's I think it's 50 and that

43:49could go into the calculation of whether they're going to do this yes yes that's what that's what I'm getting at so so that might be a factor but I can say Trump holds the House the optimistic scenario and the Senate and is an acting continues to enact as a gender which I 95% support domestically what what have what does Trump do okay the question is what does NATO do if there are nukes in Ukraine and what does Trump do if there are nukes in Ukraine what what what what do you think is going to happen there because that's the critical question well I think you know that the Iranians want to assassinate Trump and and to get revenge for the killing of their leaders and the outset of the war in the Middle East and if I'm a if I'm a a general in Moscow whether I'm an intelligence general or a armed forces general or not I'm going to talk to the

44:53Iranians and say look we need you and whatever support you need will give you intelligence we need you to kill that Trump before a certain date because we want JD Vance in the White House because JD Vance is more likely than Trump and and Trump could do it too to abandon NATO to say we don't want any part of a nuclear war in Europe if the Russians are using nukes in Ukraine let him let him have it you know I think it's beyond question that the JD Vance would roll over Trump you don't know but JD Vance I think would just immediately roll over without which is why I will not support him under any circumstances yeah yeah I think you know if I'm a Russian general no maybe they're not as bright as that but I think they're smart enough to recognize if they've if they're getting good intelligence reports on the thinking of American political leaders they know that that Vance is their choice is the guy they really want and

45:56Trump is is you know he's president he's vulnerable and the Iranians really want to kill him so if Trump was assassinated by the Iranians in the next couple months and and that's that's possible the Iranians want to get him if the Russians were to help them with intelligence the Russians are fully capable of that would be a move I would kind of expect them to make at this point now maybe Trump maybe they they know the Trump will you know listen to JD Vance maybe and we'll say look we don't want to be any part of a nuclear war in Europe you could kind of hear Trump saying that because he's not been super supportive of NATO in Europe since he's been in but that last NATO meeting that they had were Trump got together they're in Turkey I think it really was kind of a show of solidarity even on Trump's part so I if I'm the Russians I'm kind of worried what Trump will do now that's the current that's a very good

47:00point isn't because that's the what Trump does will determine what NATO does to a large degree will determine what Russia does and so if I was if I were the Russians I would certainly be asking the Ukrainians to do asking the Iranians to do something there that would make a lot of sense for a lot of reasons would not yeah would and you know how porous our borders have been you know that their sleeper cells here Iranians have assets here and you just don't know what you know how many and how armed they are and you know how able the secret service is under extraordinary conditions you know and I'm hoping that they're you know Putin has beefed up his bodyguard many fold over the last you know 14 months or so 14 16 months you know Trump really needs stronger protection and certainly his family because these these threats are real you

48:03know this is not so I was making a point before Trump chose J.D. Vance I said if President Trump wants to stay alive through his whole term he has got to pick a VP who is scarier to our enemies than he is yes you know because if he had some total war hawk you know like Lindsey Graham would have been a good one right yeah so so so someone who'd be who the Russians would fear even more than Trump so it's not interest to keep Trump alive by picking J.D. Vance which was engineered by Tucker Carlson who has never met a Russian leader he didn't love by picking J.D. Vance Trump put his own life in a lot of danger in my opinion because nobody fears J.D. Vance on the world stage a lot of people fear Trump so if they got rid of Trump they're gonna have a much easier time the

49:07Chinese would have an interest in that the Iranians the Russians Mexicans would have a Cubans would have an interest in that so there's no shortage of people who would benefit by getting rid of Trump at the stage and installing J.D. Vance well you can see John McCain who was pretty sharp political operator he picks Sarah Palin when he ran for president in 2008 and you think why did he pick Sarah Palin he hates her he doesn't really agree it's because that made him golden because if anything happened to him whether it was somebody blackmailing him or trying to kill him they were gonna end up with Sarah Palin as president to the US that couldn't have been acceptable to either China or Russia yeah exactly so look president Trump if anybody around you's listening to this look put Marco Rubio in the VP spot puts Ted Cruz put Ronda Sanders put somebody

50:09who the Russians would fear because they don't fear J.D. Vance and that means they have a big incentive of getting rid of you yeah yeah that basically boils it down I mean this is you know what we're saying is political analysis we're trying to logically think through the problems that the government's facing today and these this is how you do it you know you you have to think logically because your enemy is using this kind of logic so so so much depends on Trump staying alive winning the elections NATO standing strong add to the point that the Russians check it out because I I think your analysis is right you know I'm trying to think of things from a a Russian solviki a Russian leadership point of view they know if they do not win a Ukraine if the Russian people have to

51:14endure all of this misery and death for a loss their positions will be very untenable at best and their lives may be at risk but by you know attacking Ukraine with nukes they could achieve a major victory a grasp victory from the jaws of defeat I think the risk would be worth it from the point of view don't you yeah I mean I when the war started in for much of the war watching them I didn't think they would do the nuclear option in Ukraine because of their rhetoric their rhetoric was you know the Ukrainians are Russians and we're not going to use nuclear weapons on our our Slavic brothers but that rhetoric has changed now and I you know when I review the Russian military literature which generals like Gurasmov certainly are in in it's all inside of his head it's his mother's milk you know that he's presented this to Putin and said well this is how in

52:18the old days they understood we were going to win a win a war and of course I think Putin has understood this for a while and so they've known this has always been possible all they had to do was steer the propaganda steer them that information war in in the Russian media in this direction and now we're we're seeing it very intensively put on that they're figure after figures coming out saying we are obligated to do a nuclear war in Ukraine now yeah obligated is the key word isn't we're obligated to Mother Russia we're obligated to our people we're obligated to history you know that this is you know this they either face the most embarrassing defeat and loss of prestige in Russian history or a ugly victory over Ukraine one that carries a chance of splitting NATO and and completely turning the tables on the west you know if I was them I'd be taking the risk

53:21and I hope I'm wrong I hope they don't but you know logically what would you do yeah yeah you have to do what is logically the best thing to do for your way of thinking and we've only got a couple of minutes left but do you think the Ukrainians do you think the Germans are in Europe and general is aware that this is brewing yes I think they are I mean in Poland they certainly are because they have you know they have already distributed potassium iodine to the population to be released in the event of the beginning of war so they know that there will be some nuclear contamination is possible I think the there was such concern that the finished foreign minister was attempting to come fears in Finland by saying look yes we have our nuclear shelters which is good

54:23and the Russians are going to invade us are going to try to invade us but most of their nuclear weapons are pointed at London Paris in Washington so for for politicians to be deflecting like that in Scandinavia or the Nordic countries yeah I think that it's they know it's it's real these especially in Finland and Poland that have you know had to actually fight the Soviet Union in the past but see in America nobody even thinks about this it's not even thought because you know this is the continual problem in America especially facing them into elections for Trump to come out now so we faced existential war with Russia nuclear war with Russia in Europe you know that would inflame the public it would make it very hard to win the midterms and it would empower the cowardly appeasing you know sections of the Republican party and and the democratic love too

55:27the democratic way and of course it works very differently in Russia you've got Alexei Jurevlov who is the state Duma and Rudina party leader he has publicly demanded nuclear strikes he's not just saying we should he's demanding nuclear strikes he did this in a high profile television appearance and he said this is a quote of him that if necessary we are obligated to use nuclear weapons if we must strike we will strike and that's not up for discussion imagine that wow yeah well on that somber night we'll have to draw this to a close unfortunately Jeff but thank you so much i hope people close to the Trump administration somebody is listening to this i really hope so because Jeff's words wisdom are sobering and terrifying but they're so so plausible so believable so thanks very much for coming on Jeff we'll have you on again soon i'm sure this is

56:29going to keep unfolding and god bless america it's all i can say and god bless our list as we need every bit of divine help we can get going forward so thanks everybody for listening see you all next week you you