The Wire - December 27, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z December 27, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA CONDUCTS CRUISE MISSILE STRIKES IN NIGERIA. SOMALI FRAUD IN MINNESOTA EXPANDS IN SCOPE. RUSSIA STRIKES KIEV AFTER UKRAINE ASSASSINATES GENERAL IN MOSCOW. SERIAL DRIVE-BY SHOOTER ARRESTED IN AUSTIN.//

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-International Events-

Ukraine: Over the past few days Russia has responded to the Ukrainian targeting of a Russian General in Moscow, by conducting strikes of their own in Kiev. LTG Fanil Sarvarov was assassinated via an explosive device that was placed inside his vehicle outside his apartment in Moscow.

Analyst Comment: Before his death, LTG Sarvarov was the leader of Russia's Operational Training Directorate for the General Staff. The strikes in Kiev are not exactly good news for the peace process, but neither is an assassination of a General in Moscow, so this tit-for-tat targeting is mostly a wash.

Nigeria: The Pentagon conducted missile strikes in the Islamic State-held northwestern territories of the nation on Christmas Day. The strikes were carried out on known Islamic State training camps and facilities, which have been legendary for carrying out exploitation, kidnapping, and terrorist attacks around the nation. Local Nigerian officials stated that the US carried out strikes in the Sokoto district, targeting the sub-group referred to as Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP).

Analyst Comment: The rampant insurgencies carried out by the Islamic State throughout the entire Sahel region are by no means a new conflict, and Nigeria specifically has been host to kidnapping/ransom-style attacks on populated villages for several decades. In short, various ethnic cleansing and genocide operations have become regular and routine throughout the region over the past few centuries, but more recently have come to a head as insurgents consolidate power around the continent.

These recent strikes were significant, but conflicts in Africa do not often abide by the universally understood ways of warfare in the west. As such, whether or not these strikes actually did anything is anyone's guess; erasing a map grid square which previously held a significant training camp surely would have resulted in some level of setback for militants, however only time will tell if this effort will reduce the capabilities of insurgent groups in the region.

Of note, the technical details of the strikes are contradictory between the various agencies involved. For instance, Nigerian officials state that the strikes were carried out by MQ-9 Reaper drones, however the Pentagon published a video of (likely Tomahawk) missiles being launched from an unnamed Arleigh Burke-class Destroyer. This doesn't necessarily mean much, as it's very doubtful that the US told Nigeria anything about the strike beyond very basic details. However, this does bring into question exactly what intelligence was used to conduct the strikes. USAFRICOM has had a counter-insurgency mission throughout the continent for decades, so it's not out of the question for the US to carry out strikes without Nigeria's help at all (which is probably for the best). After all, Islamic State training camps aren't exactly hard to find. However, the Nigerian government has serious incentive to feed the US bad intel which results in bad strikes. Throughout the third world, one of the biggest complications for targeting are local sources providing "tips" on "insurgent activity" which is really just a disgruntled man wanting his landlord to be struck by a drone. Many Hellfire missiles have been the settling factor for personal debts between neighbors, from Afghanistan to Syria and every desert war in between. This will be something to consider if these strikes continue, as very few official sources have provided any information at all regarding what's actually going on, on the ground.

-HomeFront-

Idaho: Yesterday afternoon an ac