The Wire - February 23, 2026 - Priority

//The Wire//1100Z February 23, 2026//
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//BLUF: CARTEL WAR KICKS OFF IN MEXICO AS CJNG LEADER KILLED BY MEXICAN FORCES.//

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-International Events-

Mexico: Yesterday afternoon Mexican forces conducted a raid in the town of Tapalpa, Jalisco, with the objective of capturing Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes (Alias: "El Mencho"), the leader of the CJNG Cartel. During the operation, El Mencho was killed, which triggered heavy fighting between the Mexican government and the CJNG cartel throughout the afternoon.

So far, most of the heavy fighting has been observed in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, two cities which have historically served as CJNG strongholds.

Immediately after Mencho's death, CJNG forces declared a general mobilization throughout Jalisco, which encompasses most of their territory. Most of the fighting throughout the afternoon took the form of knee-jerk, rapid response elements engaging Mexican authorities with small arms and crew served weapons, mostly via skirmishes in the street in various small towns scattered throughout the district. Violence is not confined to just Jalisco, burning vehicles were observed in the town of Reynosa, just across the border from McAllen, Texas.

Throughout the evening, a more organized and substantial deployment was undertaken, with heavier weapons and armored vehicles being deployed to engage government forces throughout the region. In the town of Puerto Vallarta, combat actions were reported throughout the afternoon with CJNG briefly holding the city for some time. Within a few hours, Government forces rolled in hard with air support, pushing CJNG out of the city (or at least, out of fighting positions on the street) by nightfall.

Throughout the countryside, many roads are impassable due to cartel forces digging anti-tank ditches across the roadway, emplacing roadblocks, and otherwise digging in for what they perceive to be a draw-out fight.

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Analyst Comments: Throughout much of Mexico, the situation can be described as a state of pandemonium and chaos. There's no way to determine front lines or Centers of Gravity at the moment, as all of the violence observed throughout the afternoon is representative of whatever combat power local CJNG cells had at their safehouses. El Mencho was the patriarch of the CJNG, and more of a grandfather figurehead of the cartel family than an operational leader. As one might expect, killing a sicario's grandfather in such a manner has dialed the violence up to eleven.

As soon as word got out that El Mencho was dead, everyone grabbed their rifles and started shooting at whatever Mexican authorities were in their area. The next few days will probably see even more organized violence as cartel leadership organizes more significantly for combat actions in the long term. Since the CJNG cartel has been allied with the Gulf Cartel for some time, violence has continued right up to the US border.

Due to the rapid breakout of war throughout the region, most entities were not expecting small arms engagements on a peaceful Sunday afternoon. Cities known for heavy tourism industry are directly in the center of much of the fighting, with off-season tourists being caught in the middle of the conflict. As a reminder, Guadalajara is scheduled to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup this summer, and right now many high-level soccer matches have brought scores of tourists and sports fans to the exact district that is now host to heavy fighting.

Guests at the many tourist resorts scattered throughout the region suddenly found their afternoon cocktail hour interrupted by gunfire and shrapnel, and throughout the evening most civilians throughout the region spent many hours sheltering in place, or fleeing the area if they could. The US State Department has issued shelter-in-place orders for the following areas