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The Wire - March 24, 2026

S2 Underground

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//The Wire//1900Z March 24, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST DESPITE ALLEGED CEASEFIRE. EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TEXAS REFINERY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Middle East: The alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli PM Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts. Which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone/missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52's constantly departing RAF Fairford with bombs slung underwing, before returning many hours later empty.

Analyst Comment: This adds more weight to the theory that the "ceasefire" was probably not very serious, and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations. Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now, no cessation of bombings ever went into effect.

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic through the Strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations, to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the Strait by diverting into Iranian waters, for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of Larak Island. 

Analyst Comment: The Larak-tollbooth arrangement started coming into effect last week, and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically, this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations (such as China, India, and Japan), who have also been impacted by the war. Selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States, instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Yesterday afternoon a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter-in-place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion/fire has not been disclosed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The timing of this incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there's really not enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various "shadow warfare" tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

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The Wire - March 24, 2026

S2 Underground

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Full transcript

S2 UndergroundThe Wire - March 24, 2026. Machine-transcribed; use the interactive transcript above to jump the player to any line.

This is the War for 1900 Zulu, March 24th, 2026. Presidents' routine, information cut off as 1800, bottom line up front. War continues in Middle East, despite alleged ceasefire, explosion reported at Texas refinery. Beginning with international events, in the Middle East, the alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts, which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone and missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52s constantly departing RAF Fairford, with bombs slung under wing before returning many hours later imptty. Analysts comment. This adds more weight to the theory that the ceasefire was probably not very serious and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations.

Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now no cessation of bombings ever went into effect. In the Strait of Formos, traffic through the strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the strait by diverting into Iranian waters for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of a Iraq island. Analysts comment. The Iraq toll booth arrangements started coming to effect last week and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations such as China, India, and Japan, who have also been impacted by the war, selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world. On the home front, in Texas yesterday afternoon, a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter and place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over

a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion and fire has not been disclosed. Analysts comments for this wire. The timing of the incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there is not really enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various shadow warfare tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire, it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened. This concludes the wire for 1900 Zulu, March 24th, 2026.

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