The Wire - May 14, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z May 14, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRUMP'S MIDDLE EAST TRIP CONTINUES. NAVAL CONFRONTATION EMERGES IN THE GULF OF FINLAND.//

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-International Events-

Baltic: A brief scandal erupted between Russia and Estonia regarding the attempted halting of a cargo ship suspected of violating trade agreements. Estonian naval forces attempted to board the tanker M/T JAGUAR in the Gulf of Finland. This tanker was bound for Russia, and in a continuation of Estonia's history of detaining vessels suspected of breaching sanctions, Estonian forces attempted to conduct boarding operations to inspect (and probably detain) the vessel. In this case, however, Russian fighter jets appeared and carried out international relations in the form of buzzing the Estonian vessels and aircraft that were attempting to board the vessel. Due to this development, Estonian forces backed off, and halted the boarding attempt.

AC: This confrontation is not entirely out of the realm of normalcy at this point, but it does highlight the tensions that remain between NATO and Russia. All it takes is one mistake for this passive-aggression to turn into active aggression, and for very serious consequences to occur.

-HomeFront-

Michigan: This morning federal authorities issued a press release detailing the arrest of Ammar Abdulmajid-Mohamed Said for his attempt to target a military installation in an act of terrorism. Said was arrested by undercover agents shortly before the alleged attack was to begin.

AC: This is an interesting case, but as with all cases involving "confidential informants" that help a would-be terrorist plan their attack, more context would be helpful to determine what really happened. Based on the report itself, there are several details that would be careful to consider. For one, the very first line of the press release states that Said was a "former member of the Michigan Army National Guard"...however the next paragraph states that he is currently 19 years old. Since the shortest military service contracts are generally 4 years long, and one must be at least 17 years old to enlist in any service branch...something is off here. As such, the details of his discharge would be exceptionally helpful for determining if a pattern of terroristic behavior was displayed early on.

Minnesota: Concerns are growing regarding a potential Presidential pardon of Derek Chauvin, the officer convicted during the George Floyd scandal years ago. Gov. Tim Walz has stated that the White House is planning to pardon Chauvin, however President Trump has stated that he knows nothing about this when directly questioned by reporters on the issue.


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Analyst Comments: This is almost certainly an information operation carried out by the guy who ran against Trump during the last election, and intended to stoke dissent at a time when race-relations in the United States are not doing well. For one, Derek Chauvin was convicted on state-level charges, so even if he was pardoned by President Trump for the federal hate-crime charges, he would still remain in prison on state charges for 22 more years. Gov. Walz's statements have also been very indicative of this being what one might colloquially refer to as a "psyop" because his statements (to paraphrase) essentially boil down to "well, we don't have any evidence that Trump is planning this pardon, but it seems like something he might do". So in other words, this a giant pile of nothing that has been plopped into the circuit for the media to chew on for a few days, and hopefully stir up another "mostly-peaceful" summer of violence. How successful this effort will be is anyone's guess.

In the Middle East, President Trump's overseas visit continues as a plethora of trade deals are signed with various nations around the Middle East. Yesterday President Trump met with the