This pollster predicted Trump's surprising 2024 coalition. How's it holding up?

Back in 2023, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote a book that laid out a path for how the party could win future elections with a working class multiracial coalition.

Later that year, Amy talked with Patrick on this very podcast where they discussed whether Trump could expand his base to include those voters of color. Well, as we saw, he did. In fact, in 2016, the coalition that elected Trump was 88% white. By 2024, it was down to just 78% white.

So we wanted to have Patrick Ruffini back on for a conversation about how well that same coalition is holding up six months into Trump 2.0, whether these voters will show up for Republicans in 2026, and whether the next Republican nominee for president will have a similar appeal these voters.

Patrick is a partner and pollster for Echelon Insights and writes a great Substack, The Intersection.

Also, a quick programming note: we are taking a bit of a summer break in August, but never fear! We'll be back in September with new episodes of The Odd Years.

You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport

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