Tim Miller: Florida Just Shocked Everyone

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Hey, everybody.

Tim, I'm from the bulwark.

I just got off with Katie Turr, Ashley Parker Carol Lennig,

some of my faves on MSNOW.

I wanted to kind of extend my remarks

because I have a little bit of unusual optimism

about the political landscape right now.

And so I didn't want to deny you guys that.

I talked about it a little bit on the program.

Then you'll notice I'm in a different shirt.

I went downstairs, started playing with my daughter outside,

beautiful band, Louisiana, put on a short sleeve shirt.

I was like, you know what?

No, I got one more thing to say.

I got one more thing to say.

So anyway, we talk at the beginning of the show,

you know, about a bunch of the parade of terrible.

So you know, the corruption and the Trump administration,

how there's no white collar crime being investigated,

but now actually I referenced this chart.

We can just put this chart up on the screen right now.

So you can kind of see just the downward trajectory

of investigating white collar crime.

It's been going on for a while now,

but then just falls off a cliff during Trump 2.0.

You know, we discuss, you know,

a lot of the other terrible things happening

in the Trump administration.

Then we come back on to discuss the Florida state

legislative race, where the Mar-a-Lago district

goes to a Democrat.

You know, I do some political analysis on the show,

but I want to put a finer point on it.

I want to do a little bit of sunshine pumping.

I don't want you guys to hold me to this.

I still cringe looking back at the post-and-selts

or poll video I did in 2024, I'm all excited.

So I'm not, you know, take everything

of the grain assault, politics is contingent,

things can change.

But when there's good news, I like to pass it on.

And I had a little birdie in my ear,

who is really, really well-sourced in Florida politics

as I've experienced in Florida politics.

He's on an internal polling data,

has a sense for the political environment on the ground.

And that person was telling me

that if the election was held today,

the Democrats could win the governorship

or the Senate seat.

Friend of the show, David Jolly running for governor,

friend of the show, Alexander Vindman running for Senate.

So, you know, at some level, we would say that,

you know, these are the never-trumpetries are people.

I don't take this lightly.

It comes from somebody that is in a position to,

no, like what the political landscape looks like now,

and they think the Democrats go in Florida.

That is just a earthquake for our politics,

for Florida to come back onto the map.

Even if that's wrong.

Even if that person is off by a couple of points,

even if they're something the polling,

they're ashamed mega people that are pissed about or on

and pissed about gas prices, pissed about Epstein

and they're not answering pollsters right now.

And, you know, there's something wrong

with the methodology of the internal data in Florida.

Even if that's all true, and the Democrats lose by five

in Florida, let's say.

That's still a huge, huge victory.

And that's still an eight point move from 2024

in the Democrats' direction.

That will have implications.

That will lead to a just a total blue wave in the house.

And the Senate being right on the edge of being in play,

they might need to improve a little bit more

than that to get the Senate applied.

So, to me, you look at Florida and all of a sudden,

you start to think blue Florida.

A lot of discussion of Texas.

A lot of discussion of some of these other states.

Florida's not been in people's minds.

The Democrats have kind of given up on Florida.

But what in that long ago they won in Florida?

There are people in Florida that remember voting

for Democrats that have changed their minds.

Some of those people are going to be upset.

Some of them are going to be Hispanic voters

who didn't expect the mass deportations to look like they have.

Some of them are going to be working class voters

who thought that the economy was going to get better.

Some of that is going to be people

who are pissed about the war.

Some that are just going to be mega voters

who are just going back to being Florida man

and fighting alligators and watching NASCAR, whatever, you know?

Going out to eBore City and having a few pops

and meeting a young lady like getting a tramp stamp.

Whatever, whatever it is the Florida people do.

Some people are just like, you know what, I'm out.

Democrats now, they might be checking out.

That's something that's happening.

It's something to monitor.

We saw evidence of that in the state legislative very last night.

We've seen evidence of this

in other congressional special elections in Florida.

So evidence of this even kind of a dour, negative Nancy,

Democratic consultant from Florida.

And he will love that I would say this.

Steve, shout out to my man, Steve.

He wrote for the bullwork about potential risks

and opportunities that Democrats have looking forward.

And he showed it out, a bailed out

and kind of in running in unlike the Daytona Beach area

of Florida saying that that could be a district

that comes into play.

I mean, if Democrats are competing in Daytona,

they're a business.

So a lot of work left to do.

No, we should get over excited.

But I was interested.

There are a few data points that were positive

and interesting.

And when I can bring a little bit of sunshine to your life,

I'm going to do it.

So there you go.

Up next, Ashley Parker, Carol Lanning, Katie Turner, myself,

talking about this and much, much more.

Stick around.

Subscribe to the feed right here.

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Voters are asked what most Americans,

the words most Americans think apply to Trump.

And the top of the list is arrogant, opportunist, corrupt,

dishonest, a lot arrogant, a lot opportunist, a lot corrupt,

a lot dishonest.

And you see those numbers.

It's the majority of the American public who says this.

Tim, is Donald Trump going to face consequences for this?

Will he suffer because of these numbers?

Well, I mean, I guess I can't speak about eternal suffering

whatever he's already won again.

So I don't know if he's going to be god willing,

won't be trying to run again.

So I don't think he can suffer personally.

The ballot box, the party can.

And I think the party is, we're already

seeing the degree to which Republicans are suffering

in these special elections, China will get to.

So I do think the Republicans will suffer.

That corrupt number, just to what we all have been talking

about here, feels a little low to me, and only 54%

I want is happening.

I think you mentioned the historian said

that it's unprecedented in modern history.

It's unprecedented in American history.

And we've seen this kind of gripped and gripped

in corruption elsewhere in the world.

And you know, the things we've disparaging,

we called the third world, or banana republics, or whatever.

But the Trump family is acting indistinguishable

from any of that right now.

I mean, we don't exactly know what's happening

with these trades.

Is it possible that Trump's just so predictable?

That there's some gamblers out there

that are like, I bet he's going to taco on Monday morning

before the market opens, that's possible.

But even if that is the case, right?

Even if this isn't an insider trade,

Trump is getting insider deals.

The Trump family is.

You know, Jared Kushner and Trump Jr and Eric Trump

are in business with three of the main players

in the Iran war right now.

Kushner is getting money from MBS.

The Trump family is getting money from UAE

as part of their crypto deal.

And Cutter gave Trump a plane.

And there is unimaginable amounts of money.

A wash right now in the Trump family.

Some based on corrupt deals, some,

who knows, potentially based on inside knowledge,

like we can't be sure because nobody's investigating

this stuff.

And I think that's like what this comes down to.

There is, we cannot know as long as these guys

are in charge because nobody's investigating them.

I mean, hopefully this.

Attorney General in New York and other states

can start doing these investigations.

But we have another thing that is unprecedented

is the small number of white-collar criminal investigations

that have happened in the last two years.

Yeah, that's a good point.

A lot of this has to do with national security,

both what Carol's been reporting.

But also, you know, the market manipulation,

the well-timed stock trades and sell-offs

and the prediction market stuff, national security based,

national security based.

You can add in, if you'd like, Hegseth,

making a signal chat that included a journalist.

It seems like this administration

from outward appearances is pretty willy-nilly

with national security.

Where is the Republican Party?

Where's Lindsey Graham on this?

Well, Lindsey's getting what he wants in Iran.

So he's not gonna quibble.

But maybe some of the other ones you might think would.

I don't know.

I think potentially the craziest story

of the whole second term,

so far, competitive category is ties in this classified

docs story to what we're seeing with the war on Iran.

Was I believe a week, Carol can correct me if I'm wrong.

I think a week before we launched the war with Iran,

the FBI cash betel fired FBI agents

who specialized in Iranian counterintelligence

because they were wrapped up in this classified docs case.

Now, why were they involved in the classified docs case?

Because among the documents that were in his bathroom

in Maralaga was Iran war plans.

And so obviously, the FBI,

just doing their due diligence would bring in Iranian experts

to be part of that investigation.

It's not like they spearheaded it

or they were part of some deep state targeting Trump.

They were called in because of their expertise.

Because of that expertise, they were fired a week later.

We go to war with Iran and the threats on the homeland

from potentially payback or whatever,

alone wolf attacks, any of that, skyrocket.

And they didn't care.

So they either hadn't communicated to cash about the war.

They don't care about the threats on the homeland.

And you see like many examples of this.

But to me, that one is the most stark.

All right, Maralaga has flipped blue.

Yes, Maralaga is now blue.

Democrat Emily Gregory defeated a Trump endorsed Republican

for a Florida state house seat in the district

that includes the president's estate.

But her win wasn't the only shocker of the night.

Republican Josie Tomkow,

conceded to Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran

and union leader in a razor-thin state

Senate special election race in Tampa, Ashley Parker,

Tim Miller, still with us, Tim in his own backyard.

Ouch, he voted for it by mail,

which is he's also trying to ban in that election.

So he didn't think about by mail.

I don't know why he didn't trust,

why he trusted rather that that would go through.

But look, I want to get dorky with you on some math here

in this district.

So Trump wins the Maralaga legislative district

by 11 points in 2024.

Last night, the Democrat won by two points,

about a 13 points swing.

Florida is a whole state, Trump won by 13.

And so you know, you can only project out so much here.

It's like there are plenty of caveats here.

It's an off-year special election.

Is that going to have the same turnout profile

as a midterm, probably not?

But you can start to see the Democrats get their first glimmer

of hope in Florida since the Obama era,

you know, since Trump took it from them in 2016.

And I think there's a lot of reasons for that.

Some of that's economic.

Some of that is the South Florida demographics.

They thought they were signing up for something

that they didn't on immigration.

There's a variety of different issues.

But I think that Florida, all the sudden,

you know, becomes a place that Democrats can get serious

about in that governor's and Senate race.

And that hasn't been the case for a while now.

Well, you know Florida pretty well with Jeb.

Have the Democrats really been making,

putting a lot of money into Florida?

Because last I understood it,

in the places that Democrats lost

and places that had turned red,

it seemed like they were walking away

to focus on emerging purple states,

like potentially Georgia, Arizona, et cetera.

So have they been making real investment in Florida?

Certainly not the last couple of cycles.

I did notice Ashley smirked when she said

that I knew Florida because of Jeb.

Ashley was covering that chapter and gave us

the business a lot of time.

That's the mission point.

Jeb, I just want to voice that bring voice to that smirk.

But no, I do think the Democrats

have abandoned it the last couple of cycles.

I think they did put effort in the right after Trump.

Like in 2018, I believe that's right.

When DeSantis beat Andrew Gillum,

very close race, like he wins very narrowly.

And then the tide starts to turn kind of

during the end of Trump won

and then through the Biden era.

And I think that a lot of Democrats

have thrown up their hands.

And people now look at Florida and say,

this is ridiculous.

I didn't just swing state anymore.

It's a red state Republican state.

That DeSantis and his team brags about that.

But wasn't that long ago that they almost beat DeSantis in 18?

You know, it's only eight years ago now.

And so I do think that you're starting to see signs

that maybe it's, you know, I wouldn't call it a swing state again,

but it's starting to get back onto the map.

Not a Cabrera reports this morning, Emily Gregory,

who won the Mar-Lago district.

How much did people talk to you about the president?

I would say roughly zero.

I mean, it really was not a factor for any of my voters,

any of my now constituents.

They're focused on their lives.

They're focused on the absolute crushing cost of goods.

The squeeze they are feeling.

Why their property insurance has skyrocketed?

Why they're losing their healthcare?

Why are our public schools being gutted?

That's what I heard every single day at the door.

Not the most famous constituent down the road.

That's interesting, Tim.

Does that tell the Democrats

and not talk about Donald Trump so much?

I don't, I don't know.

I don't think so.

I mean, that's a good sentiment.

I think that Donald Trump is in everybody's faces

and everybody's lives and there's no way to not talk about it.

I do think that focusing on other issues

besides just complaining about the latest Trump outrage

to Jorah's smart.

And to me, one of my takeaways from that is,

I don't know that, you know, Emily Gregory

does not seem to me like the kind of candidate

that was recruited in school

through the Democratic establishment

that they went out and got

and they targeted that district.

And, you know, to me in the midterms,

there is an element for the Democrats

of just running people from communities

that represent their communities in places

or Republicans of one before.

And they might end up finding themselves

with a lot of accidental Congress people

and state legislators and growing their bench that way

because people who knew their communities ran

and they ran in places that hadn't been competitive before

that there are this time because a lot of voters

are upset about costs and Iran

and the other issues laid out.

Florida, exclamation point.

All right, Tim, actually I appreciate it.

Thanks for sticking around for the show for us.

We really enjoy having you.

Hey, it's Bubba Wallace from 2311 Racing.

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