Tornado season: What forecasters expect for severe weather in 2026

From AccuWeather.com, this is AccuWeather Daily, a brief host read article, its weather news,

and a nutshell.

This episode is brought to you by Factor.

Get out of your meal run with Factor and kickstart your healthy eating journey.

Factor makes it easy with 100 rotating weekly meals designed by dietitians and crafted

by chefs.

These meals are delicious and super easy to grab and eat because they're ready in about

two minutes.

There's tons of meal options too, from high protein to calorie smart, Mediterranean diet

options, GLP1 support, ready to eat salads, and more.

For me, I'm just looking for a little variety throughout the week.

So I recently tried Factor's queso, fendido, and ground beef.

In two minutes, it was ready, and what I wasn't expecting was the flavor explosion I

got.

The queso was rich and creamy.

The nicely seasoned ground beef, a perfect complement.

But don't just take it from me, try Factor for yourself.

Go to FactorMeals.com slash AccuWeather50All and use code AccuWeather50All to get 50% off and

free breakfast for a year.

Eat like a pro this month with Factor.

New subscribers only, very spy plan.

One free breakfast item per box for one year while subscription is active.

So this year's severe weather season is about to ramp up, and forecasters are saying that

it may look a little bit different than last spring's headline grabbing tornado outbreaks.

AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Dufus said that there may be fewer tornadoes reported compared

to last year, but that does not mean this will be a quiet, severe weather season.

There is an increased likelihood of severe thunderstorms, packing damaging wind gusts

and heavy downpours, flash flooding is a big concern this year.

Last spring delivered exceptional tornado activity.

With nearly two thirds of the year's tornadoes occurring from March through May.

This year long range forecasters expect tornado counts to be around the historical average,

but the atmosphere may still favor repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms, especially

storms capable of producing wind damage and flooding downpours.

A key factor is the expected quick exit of Leninia, which can reduce how often the atmosphere

locks into classic tornado-producing setups.

As Leninia conditions fade, weather patterns will be more conducive for thunderstorm development,

racing the risks of large hail, winds over 60 miles per hour, and tornadoes.

The most consistent corridor for severe weather episodes this spring is expected to set

up in the typical areas from the eastern plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Western

Ohio Valley, especially during March and April.

Cooler air will likely limit severe weather farther in the northern plains and Midwest until

late April and May.

Part of this is linked to the icy waters of the Great Lakes.

On February 9th, ice coverage on the Great Lakes reached 58%, the highest level since 2019,

when 80% of the lakes were covered, that's according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research

Laboratory.

In the Northeast, severe thunderstorms may not arrive until May or early summer.

Even in years when tornado counts trend lower, severe storms can still deliver high end

impacts.

Straight line winds can knock down trees and power lines, creating damage on a similar

scale to tornadoes.

In extreme cases, clusters of thunderstorms can grow into a Durecho, producing widespread

wind damage over hundreds of miles.

Hales are most common later in the spring and into the summer.

Hale can also cause significant property damage, with losses that can top a billion dollars

when storms hit densely populated areas.

This year, the highest hail risk is expected from Texas to Alabama, with another hot spot

around Iowa, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska, and north eastern Kansas.

AccuWeathers doofus warn that flash floods and damaging wind gusts can be just as destructive

as tornadoes, and often impact a much larger area.

Tornado reports may trend lower than last year, but it only takes one storm striking a densely

populated or vulnerable community to make this a devastating season.

So what are we looking at in terms of numbers of tornadoes this season?

Some range forecasters are predicting anywhere between 1,050 to 1,250 tornadoes across the

U.S. this year.

That compares to 1,544 preliminary tornado reports last year.

The historical average for tornadoes in the U.S. is 1,225.

Those numbers help set expectations for the season, but they don't tell the full story.

A single outbreak, or 1 tornado striking a populated area, can define a spring, regardless

of how the final count compares to average.

Severe weather season is one of the few hazards where preparation can pay off immediately.

So identify the safest place to go at home, work, and school.

Review how you'll get warnings, especially overnight.

Restock basic emergency supplies, including backups for power outages.

Make sure shelters and safe spaces are accessible and not cluttered.

And have a plan for pets and anyone who needs extra time to move to safety.

So let's turn our focus to the night sky, with the only total lunar eclipse of the year

taking place next week, with the west coast getting the best views of totality.

According to the website TimeAndDate.com, the total lunar eclipse occurs overnight on March

2nd, and the early morning hours of March 3rd.

While a partial lunar eclipse will be visible across much of the U.S., the maximum eclipse

and full totality will only be visible from the western U.S. and the pre-dawn hours of

March 3rd.

Old-wide, over 3 billion people live in areas where the total eclipse will be visible,

whether permitting that is, lunar eclipses are often referred to as blood moons, thanks

to the moon's striking red or copper-colored appearance.

During a total lunar eclipse, the moon passes completely through Earth's darkest shadow,

known as the Umbra.

Instead of disappearing, the moon takes on a reddish hue as sunlight filters through Earth's

atmosphere.

While in most nights, the moon looks bright because it reflects direct sunlight.

During a total lunar eclipse, however, Earth blocks that direct light, and as sunlight passes

through Earth's atmosphere, shorter wavelengths of blue and violet light are scattered away.

The remaining red and orange wavelengths bend or refract around Earth and into a shadow,

reaching the moon.

Essentially, the moon glows red as it's illuminated by every sunrise and sunset happening

on Earth at the same time.

The exact color of a blood moon can vary depending on atmospheric conditions.

When there's more dust, smoke, or volcanic particles in the atmosphere, the moon can appear

a deeper red.

Under clearer conditions, it may look brighter orange or copper.

The total lunar eclipse will be visible from parts of Asia, Australia, and North America.

In the US, the best views will be along the west coast from Washington State down to California,

the Mexico border.

Farther east, sky watchers will still be able to see portions of the partial eclipse,

but not totality.

Because of the timing, viewing the blood moon will require either staying up late or getting

up really early, cities including San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Seattle will see totality

at about 3.30 a.m. pacific time.

Totality will last just under an hour while the partial phases of the eclipse will stretch

on for several hours.

The event wraps up when the partial eclipse ends around 5.15 a.m. pacific time.

If you are not in the path of this celestial event, slu is hosting a special viewing party

and the eclipse can be viewed on a livestream.

There is a link embedded in this article at acuether.com, and I've put a link to that article in

the show notes.

The live broadcast begins at 2.30 a.m. pacific time.

There will be another lunar eclipse in August, but that one will be partial, meaning the moon

will not turn red.

March's event is the only total lunar eclipse of this year.

After that, the next lunar eclipse visible here in the states is not until August of next

year, with a penumbral lunar eclipse when the moon will appear shaded or darker as

the moon passes through the outer part of Earth's shadow.

That's all for now.

You can find regional forecasts and science based articles at acuether.com and for your

local forecast at your fingertips, download the acuether app.

Enjoy the rest of your day.

Be safe.

I'll be back tomorrow with more from acuether.