TRIGGERnometry - Reform Donations Scandal and War with Argentina? - Off the Fence

0:00Hello and welcome back to Off the Fence with myself Constantine Kiss and Frances Foster of course Winston Marshall of the Winston Marshall show and Last but not least Tom Slater from Spike welcome back lads good to have you our four stories for today are War with Argentina potentially have you a malaise as Argentina will prevail over Declining Britain we've got the reformed donation scandal the Lindsey Clancy case and of course Andy Burnham is back and Better than ever presumably we will find out so let's get into our first story that is of course have a malaise Saber atling saying that he will prevail or Argentina rather will prevail over poor declining Britain Could we be facing war over the fault clans with Argentina? Well a few quick things introducing the story There may be other dimensions going on here. So President Trump very bitter against the UK's lack of involvement in trying to Reopen the strait from us apparently has signaled that he is prepared to reconsider

1:04America's neutrality on this there's some oil considerations which we'll talk about and of course we will discuss Britain's military capacity to actually deal with this problem. So first and foremost when how do you feel about Argentina? Saber atling over the four clans You're gonna start with me are you brilliant? Well, I'm extremely pretty good about this issue. I'm sick To death of this is essentially Latin American Palestinianism The four clans are British We saw it first Right the first written European sighting is John Davis in 1592 We were the first to set foot there in 1600 no, sorry, I've got that date wrong in 1690 with John strong right? This is British now it's been British longer than the Argentines have been Argentinian It is it was British before Argentina existed not only that they've been several poles

2:05Well 99.9% of the people of the four clans want to be British They are ethnically British the indigenous people of the four clans are British not only that We have had considerable blood spilt Because of this continue claimed by the Argentines of course talking about the four clans war I was at the Argentina game in the World Cup and I had these Argentines shouting my face about the Luzmo Venus and Argentinus nonsense They're British and it's actually offensive. I have friends who have veterans from that war that they're still banging on about this is Just I may means it makes me very angry and I just want to add that There's a few other things that have come up in this story Benjamin Netanyahu's son which I know you got in a spat with him KK this week Has come out on the side of the Argentinians trying to provoke us because of the British government's response to Israel throughout the the war of Hamas

3:05But it's it's completely contradictory from him his point of view because it is Palestinian Firstly, we have the longest claim to the to the island secondly The people there want to be British that this they are British and thirdly like Hamas Argentina keeps starting wars they can't win and a lot of people die along the way So it's not entirely a joke. So anyway, I'm pretty annoyed about this whole thing and I'd add to it I'm not confident that our prime minister Burnham is going to have the balls of Fatsha to stand up to this antagonism Well in addition to lacking the balls I mean one of the things that I did is I was quite curious because I don't know if you saw there was a story And I think the telegraph earlier this week about the fact that the British army is now cancelling live fire drills And we're not talking about for reserves. This is a a prominent front fighting division The cancelling live fire drills to save money

4:07So the preparedness of the British armed forces to do anything about this irrespective of the political will is an interesting question So actually I looked this up on Venice AI and it's a mixed picture The garrison on the Falkland Islands is much much stronger than it was 40 years ago at the time of the Falklands War so at the time there was only 80 servicemen on the islands today We have somewhere between 131700 including helicopters fighter jets etc The problem is the Navy so the 1982 task force had 127 ships There is now only 63 ships in the entire British Navy So we are at half of the task force now and so Britain Realistically Yeah go for it Just on the 63 ships in the Navy if you actually look at aircraft carriers frigates Uh and destroyers where it's far fewer

5:09I mean it's only two aircraft carriers I think there's only six destroyers and the maybe eight frigates I don't show the exact number of the top of my head Well, it's worse than that So in terms of what we could deploy In terms of what we could deploy now would be a carrier two destroyers and five frigates And the first sea lord uh general sir Gwen Jenkins I suspect he might be Welsh has stated that the Royal Navy is not ready for war so That's one side On the other hand, I also got venice I to tell me the Argentinian numbers and this is where it gets really comical They basically have nothing they have nothing no Navy whatsoever And so it'd be like I was thinking what the get you would be like the battle between Steven Hawking and Hamza Not Hamza use of Abu Hamza the one with the hope We would we would be in the role of Abu Hamza in this situation Slightly So so irrespective of the political will I just think Tom militarily

6:10When have a melee slags us off and says he they're gonna try and put it declining Britain It's sort of hard there's part of that where you can't argue with it Yeah, no absolutely and on one hand it is kind of not Saberattling like plastic Saberattling like non-repix expect something to probably kick off here Neither side could actually wage any kind of conflict I've been thinking though in tandem with the story that we're going to talk about next Falklands and and reform hitting a lot of controversy It's been a very bad day for gamons in Britain You know and I share in that sadness Um two very crucial important things there But yes, I mean to see what um Have you any lake on play on our kind of relative weakness even bringing up the question of Migration how we're kind of internally weakened and so on and so forth And one I need obviously he has a point um the British Armed Forces not just the Navy but in general was long been sort of four bloats and packet of quivers There's very little that we could possibly project even that we like to pretend that international summits that were a terribly

7:10Important player But um, it's also a reminder though, isn't it that even though we shouldn't expect any kind of conflagration anytime soon that we're increasingly in the near it in which hard power resources Are of increasing importance and also that there's a lot of players in the world stage who are dropping the pretext of International law and agreements and whatever and just going for the raw assertion of what they seem to be their interests their territorial claims What have you and we're just so fundamentally ill equipped to deal with that kind of environment So what I don't think is about to kick off over the Falklands anytime soon It's a reminder of the kind of era that we live in and how our politicians are so Almost uniquely incapable of reckoning with that and the broad as well You say you say you're not convinced it's all about to kick off But I would put it to you with what happened in Venezuela with the fact that Trump is clearly behind the scenes Very pissed off at the UK not providing support for their efforts to reopen the straight And is signaling to have him. I mean, we've got a clip of how many male look at this He looks exactly like Vladimir Putin announcing the special emulator operation in 2022 look at this

8:15For that To secure our pre-minencies in this territory is not a political capricious It's a question of supervivencia And for that reason any additional advance on the Malvinan islands will be considered as a violation of our national security We must act today in the future and Malvinas is the future Not only a question of our past Defend our sovereignty and recover our islands Requires a political nation relevant Economically influential and militarily respectable No, there's another way I will correct myself and say I mean He if you read the subtitles it looks like Vladimir Putin if you look at his hair and also Spanish Just is not as intimidating as Russian let's be honest Francis you're our token Latin American famously Finally, I get finally I get a chance to speak right about about one of the nations

9:16From my continent. I'm by the way Winston is pronounced Malvinas Malvinas Oh, don't you start? Anyway, listen, right? This is the problem. I had a video that went viral at the time of the So at the time of the World Cup about the Argentine football team in which I basically said that they were representative of their nation a terrible country I think the actual quote was a nation of And I stand by that one hundred percent because nobody in the whole of South America likes the Argentina They've always always always thought of themselves as above their station They've always thought of themselves as this great power within South America And you can see this by the way that they actually behave like Argentina is a country that has for the vast majority of his existence has been broke It has been absolutely broke. It has suffered record levels of inflation

10:17Now Malay is actually done a good job in managing to turn around the ship But the reality is his approval ratings are very very long They're not where they used to be. He's in real danger of not getting re-elected So for him this is a very cunning strategy in order to play to the jingoistic elements of that country of which they're enumerous In order to get him re-elected I don't think there's anything really in this I think this is as Tom said glorified plastic saber rattling In order to make himself look strong powerful and relevant and also taking a bash at the English who are always the great nation that Argentines have always hated We are the pantomime villain and what better way for him to make himself look strong and powerful than taking a little dig at the English I think It's the case Firstly, you're absolutely right that all of South America hates Argentino

11:19I went to the Mexico, England, Mexico game and all the Mexican fans We don't mind that you beat us just beat those bastards from Argentine Everyone is South America hates hates Argentine But the the difference I think when it comes to This is how weak the British are at the moment as we've already stated John Haley who resigned from St. Armors cabinet as defense secretary Because they weren't going to meet the 3% of GDP defense spending Has now as Chancellor Dixchecker Kick the defense spending commitments down the can for a year Not only that You've got the Trump is It seems to be more on the Argentines side of this because he's so pissed at us Over Iran not letting them use our airfare for not letting them use Diego Garcia in the Chegos Islands So we're not in a good position there he might try and antagonize us more I think Argentinian has good a position as they could they've been since the Falklands war to actually do something here

12:26I guess I guess we'll see I also note that for them this is the every time they're in trouble Whoever's in government they bring up last Malvenas as they call it This is this is the one thing that unites the whole country. It's the it's it's a real central point of Argentine nationalism. I mean it's it's the same sort of thing with the Palestinianism where you have this grievance At the at the very core of of their identity and I think that's the same with Falkland Island. It's a grievance that unites the country and is the core of their identity My my worry is that you I worry that we may be underestimating here certainly Francis and Tom the The moment we're in in terms of the possibility of this actually becoming much more real I mean first of all there's some oil interests involved here And I don't know if you guys call a Vice President Vance press conference it yesterday He kept talking about the fact well, yes, the stray isn't quite as open as we'd like to be But that's why Venezuela was so important actually

13:29130 miles off the coast of the Falkland Islands to the north is An oil field called sea lion which has way more oil in it than either of the two major fields in the North sea They're due to start Production of these fields in the next two years and one of the things Milay specifically said is they will sanction the British and Israeli oil companies That are set to explore this My point being is oil control of oil in in the in the western hemisphere is clearly something that the United States is very very heavily focused on at the moment And Combined with the fact that the current administration is willing to tear up conventional norms about who are allies iron who are enemies are I am concerned that this actually may be something real and look I've been saying this for many many years Probably so many times Francis has got bored of hearing it But there is a very simple rule to geopolitics is if you signal weakness you and bite violates

14:30And we've seen it over and over All over the world and my worry is as I said from the beginning when when people like Millay talk about Britain as a declining nation That kind of right and if you are a declining nation people will start to have a go Hmm, they'll start to test you absolutely. I mean it's one of those things which we've been telegraphing to the world I mean, I forget the exact date that Kirstaan put on it when he was still in power saying that we need to be ready for war by X date as if to say Hello rush You've got this window in which to exploit and the fact that as we've already been talking about this we were in this bizarre situation where we've got this new chancellor Who obviously resigned as defense secretary precisely because Kirstaama and the Treasury couldn't stomp up the money to reach the 3% of GDP by 2030 target is now incapable of saying in public John Healy he resigned over this issue and yet now as chancellor He cannot tell anyone categorically that we will meet precisely that 3% of GDP target by 2030

15:35And that's even without getting into whether or not these kind of arbitrary targets are actually even going to translate in the kind of capabilities deterrent Which is actually going to be effective. You see a group of other NATO countries where a lot of kind of creative accounting takes place And you know the pensions of military personnel or whatever suddenly starts to take up a Outsize proportion of what it is that supposed to be that 3 or ultimately 3.5% of GDP So we're still playing these quite silly games kind of rhetorical games meanwhile whether or not it's the fault And the weather knows something else and we're just So clearly not capable of even just even just creating the impression that we might do something let alone actually do Which is a big problem And I think what's very interesting Sorry go for it when The There was a story last year about how we'd been we'd spent billions on Ajax tanks But tank warfare is just not relevant anymore and you remember also at the beginning of the year-on-war

16:37HMS Dragon was sent out a week after our bases in cypress were hit And then it had to come around it and it turned around in the end because it wasn't it wasn't ready our money is being misspent We don't it needs to be we need to have a proper navy as Constantine said earlier But we should be investing in drones we should be investing in actual tech that's useful tanks aren't useful And tanks aren't going to be particularly helpful if we're at war with the fault plans And look the problem is as well is as the country and we'll come to this in the fourth story We'll talk about Andy Burnham and Parliament reconvening is that we're broke We don't have the money to let alone spend Not just to spend on defense, but to spend on our own country Because what we need to do is we really really need to tackle The death the deficit that we have we spend a huge amount on just interest alone on the debts that we owe And until we actually make those very difficult decisions which Successive generations of politicians have refused to do with simply not going to be able to fund our defense in any way that is adequate

17:43Yeah, well, we spend more on wealth and then we raise in income tax So that will tell you quite a lot about the position we're in When go for a last word before we move on We're just on your point there Francis if we had a proper Look at defense spending actually you could Increase the size of our armed forces in military it would give employment and it would it would create would Wean people off the werefels that were fester By the way, this is what happened the second world war with FDR I just had James Holland on the show discussing this but actually you can actually use a proper defense strategy To pull people away from Welfare create employment and the massive added bonus as well as having a bloody defense that protect our Smaller islands is that you create national unity you actually give something for everyone to get behind So I think it's it's a frame of mind not even just financial thing. It's it's how we look at our defense and how we think about our defense

18:46Well, Francis says we have no money left. You know who has some money. It's reform Because they've got a lot of donations Great good transition But seriously, there's been a story actually front page story now in all the newspapers I think and on the BBC which is the two senior reform officials have had to result step down pending and investigation into their conduct after allegations of unlawful activity in relation to two donations Tom do you want to tell us more about the story before we get into the debate? Absolutely, I mean, this is the biggest story in town Not least because it coincides of course with reform UK conference, which is kicking off in Birmingham as we speak So there was this investigation which was put together by an organization called verbatim which is basically Offshoots of something called the center for climate reporting so you can go and understand where they're coming from politically and channel four And essentially the journalist in question all the campaigner in question depending on your perspective

19:48posed as the sort of British son of an American businessman who was looking to contribute to reform in any way that they could financially and he's got all of this footage primarily meeting with James or the head of policy at reform Who's one of those officials who has just stood down pending this investigation as well as Dan Jute to for more than the decade There's essentially been Nigel Farage's kind of closest aid right hand man Maybe kind of would be chief of staff if he ever got into Downing Street and essentially it boils down to because of the Electoral law prohibiting Foreign companies from making donations to British political parties This would be an arrangement in which and what seems to have happened is that a poll would be commissioned It would be paid for by again the the British son of this American businessman and that that was that this is being presented as a potential breach of Electural law a kind of way to get around what the letter of law says in order to enable a donation in kind if not exactly in form as it were

20:50And it's now naturally turning into a big enormous story I think there is a couple of things I'd lay out about this before we get into it one of which is the I think we do have an increasing problem with scandal mongering as a kind of political weapon in British politics and British media And what I mean by that is not to say that in all instances there's no bad smell to a particular story that there is no story that there is no potential wrong doing It's just that something is taken sort of leapt upon turned into a kind of totalizing unprecedented never before seen kind of story And then used as a stick with which to be in particular populist upstart off and right wing parties Meanwhile, you know, it doesn't take a particularly long memory to remember that after the 2015 election You have the conservatives find more than 70,000 pounds for failing to declare or not properly declaring around like 300,000 pounds Worth of donations as a whole kind of labor together scandal which I could bore everyone to tears by explaining But again boiling down to a gun of very pro-starmer think tank the people who led it ending up being key parts of the

21:53Starmor government again failing to declare large amounts of donations and then crucially also commissioning a Organization to produce a report to discredit the journalist that some day times Potentially he would produce those allegations and publish them in the newspaper So I'm not trying to sound like a kind of cynic everyone's at it whatever But at the same time one one more stories take these stories first will subject them to scrutiny This is not yet a kind of cut and dry legal case most stretch the imagination Also kind of putting it into perspective so that the it doesn't allow itself to be too weaponized The other part the story though of course is that I think reform have often said and rightly so that particularly as they were looking like they were spoiled to You know Potentially win the next election dropped off and pulls a little bit since then but still have been the kind of preeminent party of government for much of the past year That the media that various wings of the establishment we're going to throw absolutely everything at them and in that environment You've got to be as cautious and as squeak clean as you possibly can be you certainly can't invite this kind of thing and also

22:56Just sort of you know, what's the full details yet to come out? You do wonder whether kind of the the basics of due diligence would have avoided this kind of story from other Taking place so as ever I think it's as ever with stories like this There's a lot that we don't know there's a lot that we'll still find out there may well be a there there But whether or not it is the totalizing this proves their rotten to the core that is something that I think we need to deal with a To take with a huge amount of skepticism because I think we've seen that story play out over and over again And it's often not in proportion to the scales of the allegations that they leveled up I think one of the things actually that this story has shown and It's disappointing for a lot of people who support reform and support the issues that reform raises is the lack of professionalism When it comes to the organization itself as I was watching channel fools expose a I was thinking to myself who was vetting why weren't these people properly vetted and if they were Why won't they expose as to who I'm talking about the undercover journalists

23:58Why would they allow to go in and just have direct access to Nigel Farage? I really couldn't imagine this happening with the conservatives. I couldn't imagine it happening with labor to me It just shows just how Inexperienced and in some ways naive reform actually are that they're prepared to have these types of conversations Which are highly sensitive Possibly legally incriminating and they're just prepared to have these conversations openly With people that they barely know or have met a few times. It's really really really worrying for reform And you have to say on the back of the times expose Which I think looking back on it was a bit of a damp squib possibly These things are cumulative and I don't think it's going to hurt reform's base who will always vote for reform But what I think it will hurt are the floating voters who have been disappointed by

24:5914 years of to put it bluntly Inept and incompetent Tory rule and a couple of years of labor Proceeding to essentially throw their opportunity away as well So it's deeply worrying and potentially Potentially a body blow to reforms chances of getting elected in the next election Like I said not because it affects the base. I don't think it will But those floating voters it's another one in the minus column Yeah, it'll be interesting to see whether it is a body blow So I think of Trump particularly in his period out of office between his two terms and They threw everything at him they were your member various sort of investigations and I've They were going to Mar-a-Lago to sort of investigate things and They were all sorts they threw the book at him and What it did to the American public is actually Made them more inclined towards him because they felt like the blue stack was against him and and there is an element of that going on here

26:07Look so if I were to break this down. I grew view guys watching the video It's sloppy from James or and Dan jubes and They said some things which are not great. I'd also note that it's a heavily edited video. So we don't see everything I also note that The case of the So it's a British son of an American father if This had not been sloppy There's nothing I don't think there's anything legally wrong if the American father had said right son I'm gonna give you some money. It's up to you what you do with it I know you like reform you can give it to them. You've won't it's not my business and that would have been I don't think that's illegal I and it would have been fine and so why they didn't just make it as simple as that if they were going to do that route It it seems A little bit strange to me, but I said that's one side of it. I also note That the organization

27:08As you as you say Tom it's a center for climate reporting These are this is a foreign these are foreign fund it so it's a it is a version of foreign interference into British politics about and they're claiming it's about foreign interference because it's it's the money side So there's a kind of hypocrisy here. I'd say that the it's channel four of have legitimate sort of verified this work but it is very much activist so these are activists working against reform. I see it's part of a The what dominant Cummings described sort of everyone throwing the book at the reform party or sort of uniparty trying to destroy them I think that You mentioned in passing Tom that there's examples of this kind of stuff happening with other parties Yeah, there is there's been there's been foreign money coming to the labor party for example There was a Gary Lubner story when when there was 6.5 million from Johannesburg to London and they kind of you know

28:10He became a UK resident and although there's a came in Ireland hedge fund who gave four million quid to labor after their election in 2024 so there's foreign money going to the other parties And I Imagine this kind of stuff happened with the Tories as well But they kind of left themselves exposed here reform I Would also note and this is important tie the times in the telegraph who published that polling without checking into the source of it They look bad in this Jail partners the polling company look terrible in this like absolutely. I mean, I think they're finished Oh, they're not finished as heads have got to presumably roll to if they want to preserve Themselves as an entity So there's a lot of people who look bad in this whole thing uh, and I'd also say the problem with for reform is James or who full disclosure I'm friendly and friends with and I actually think he's a very honorable man and

29:12This is this what we see of this story isn't in keeping With the man I know I think that he's actually key for reform. He is he brings them a Intellectual rigor and robustness that makes reform seem serious and and so to lose him Would be significant. There's a report that Lee Anderson has says that I said that who's the MP for reform I said that James or and Dan jiggs apparently gone. I'm not sure if that's confirmed It looks like there's a further investigation into the story um But it is It's not pretty My frustration personally is that Britain has got some very very serious problems Our current government and we have a new prime minister who had his first week sitting and first PM Qs this week is under a fraction of the scrutiny of this Insurgent party who only have the handful of MPs that we

30:14We you know we're in serious problems that we're going to come to burn them later. So I we'll cover it then but The people who actually have power are not getting Discrutiny they deserve and the uniparty the blob All of these are focused on reform trying to destroy it because reform Are calling out some of the problems our country has and for me things particularly immigration I don't hear that it's certainly not being dealt seriously with from from the labor party So my frustration is if we want to actually sort our problems out We're in a double fight trying to make the problems clear and having the the the blob attacking those types of parties in any any Where they put it sort of Can just to tack on to that because I think it's so clear now that this is essentially one of the sort of weapons in the talk It's trying do with scandal what the Establishment has failed to do Electrally or via kind of conventional means which again is not to suggest that this you know that the pressure

31:18Go easy on reformed by any stretch of the imagination. They shouldn't be subjected to scrutiny But in the in the middle of a kind of medium-elstrom It's very easy for a narrative to set hold when the plain facts might not support the level of scandal Which is being discussed like as you would saying there Winston like the again the kind of finding of kind of neat ways in order to make sure that A poll can be paid for it's a sort of thing which might look a bit Grabby might smell a certain way but the same time in the grand scheme of things is not the kind of Image of corruption which is being presented as That said it's not say that it still can't do damage That's the unfortunate kind of power of the media in these sorts of situations and also the fact that this could have led to Immediately just that that those resignations whether or not they're permanent is a question that we have to wait for the thing I would add is that whilst of course James will slightly more recent recruit to the party and has become very central as you say Winston in terms of building out the policy offer the kind of philosophy of the party what have you Dan Duke has been basically by far as you said for more than 10 years And is someone who everyone was particularly surprised to have seen

32:23Stepping down in the manner that he had and far as they're going on elb see this morning and referring to both Dukes and all as contractors of the party So whilst we wait to hear what is going to happen with this internal investigation and where the dust is going to settle It's clearly already landed a blow rightly or wrongly onto the party as it goes into this conference So yes, the political consequences have been pretty significant This is part of the problem is that in the midst of the the media maelstrom suddenly you get a Narrative that is set which to a certain extent these stepping down as we played into whether or not that was the attorney Well, see this is where I've agreed we're pretty much everything everyone said to this point But this is where I actually have a different view on it because to me Those two stepping down is a clear indicator Look, I I'm not a legal expert. I can't say what's legal and what's not but the fact that Nigel Farage who said to our faces only a month ago I'm really loyal to the people who are loyal to me when we interview them the fact that these two men have resigned to me That's an admission of a killed person

33:23Just for as an outsider that to me is what it looks like the fact that he's been prepared to lose Dan juke's who's effectively as right-hand man as people have said and James or who is as central to reform as we've discussed already That to me is then basically saying we've screwed up here And we have to put distance between ourselves and his story by getting rid of these two people who are really big assets In their perspective to their party so from that perspective, I think it is an admission of guilt But I also think the context that All of you actually have presented so far is really important because you know what this reminds me of it's like in Russia And forgive me Tom you mentioned you're not this cynical everyone's at it. I am this cynical Because of my background and partly just because of what I think the reality is I actually one last time I was saying of when I pinched to his copy of Michael Cricks biography of Nigel Farage which is by no means a flattering book to Farage

34:23But Crick repeatedly details how the Tories cheated over and over in bi election after bi election When contesting seats with reform Now what this you keep as I was yeah definitely you keep as you can that's right as as as as them was My point being is everybody does cheat and this is why I actually never get excited about any of these stories We had a discussion last night about about whether we actually wanted to cover this at all And I think the thing that actually tipped us over the edge is the resignations Because if you take that out of this what you're looking at is Let's be honest a fairly trivial story about some behind the scenes shenanigans about sourcing a bit of money And by the way, this is another thing that is actually very disappointing if you are someone who's reform Aligned or reform curious you might say We're talking about tiny amounts of money Americans I know look 20 grams a lot of money for ordinary people and for all of us

35:26But for a political party that is seeking to become the government of the country All of this over 20 grand to do a poll it just it seems a level of risk that forget about the morality of it There's not remotely commensurate with with the potential gains of this go ahead when I have more to say about that Yeah, so it's a tiny amount of money in in respect to the money for paying for polling But the hate job was expensive in terms of paying for a hate job So they pay for the polling okay, sorry, I'll let you make the point then Well, well, what I was gonna say is so that there is this broader context Which is basically everyone's up to it But I just I think the thing that that you see here is reform a kind of amateurish when it comes to this and that It's not a surprise because there are amateur new party But it's disappointing nonetheless And then on top of that we have to talk about the angle of this this is it's not a coincidence that the reform party conference is starting today This is a deliberate hit job by a far left anti net zero pro net zero

36:31Activist organization channel four had nothing to do with this These activists did all of this work and then brought it to channel four who then when oh yeah looks decent Let's get out there And what you're seeing as Tom rightly said I think is The the media class doing what? Electorally the political opponents of reform couldn't do That said You know if this is properly investigated by the police Given the evidence that we've seen it would not be surprised me if there are Potential prosecutions out of this because Let's be honest the footage is not a good look at all Yeah, which also wouldn't be unprecedented is worth saying which is not to create excuses for anyone and just to Try and rebuff any Accusations of double standards or hypocrisy here certainly if you look at the way that we are spiked have covered various of the kind of stories Involvement the conservatives even the the labor party um with Essentially apply the same level of skepticism too many of this these stories a lot of this

37:33scandal mongering like even when they were going after like Angela Rainer over a stamp duty were going after clear Starmer over Lord Ali buying his wife dresses for some bizarre reason um Again, what was embarrassing there was the hypocrisy they were running on being whiter than white on Complete polar opposite to supposedly grubby Boris Johnson they got caught out I think whenever you have you know beyond clear cut obvious corruption Money being used to influence policy and a nefarious fashion politicians becoming bought mouthpieces Um influence being bought and peddled in a really kind of clearly Undemocratic and unseemly way of course everyone's against that But when you get down to these kind of more fine-grade distinctions around electoral law ethics procedures What have you what tends to happen is it tends to empower the law the state or some kind of quango at the expense of Democracy it's like what we need is more rules what we need is more ethics committees We need is more laws that would bar particular political parties if they Overstep the mark in this way that that way or what have you so again as ever outside of clear cut

38:37Examples of corruption which everyone is as against there's when you get into these kind of finer distinctions Loop holes bit of wheeled dealering bit of you know creative accounting in order to get around what might be the um The spirit of a lot of the regulations That this can very easily be be weaponized I think we need to be on our guard against it regardless of where it's coming from and if you reform You need to be on your guard against not falling victim to these sorts of efforts to entrap you when they come along death And also look and I think you've made a great point Tom. This is politics. This is the game of politics Once you get to a certain level Once people start recognizing you as being a legitimate threat to them getting into power whether it's labor or conservative These shenanigans are going to start and really now this is a moment for reform where they have a choice Of whether they go down the similar route that they did which is sort of the you know the wheeler dealer You know that's let's play at what we're doing here, you know

39:40We can be a little bit woo little bit way a little bit geyserish and we can you know make our way Or you're going to actually now professionalize and think to yourself we can't do this anymore If you want to get into power if you want to lead this country then quite frankly the whole organization Need to start up their game and there needs to be Far more stringent. They need to start professionalizing and they need to start looking at who the people are that they're interacting with And really really doing some stringent checks because this can't happen again This is a massive wake-up call for everyone involved It's the potential body blow like I said before Particularly with the floating voters, but I don't think this is the end for reform This is a chance for them to go right We can get better, but it means we're going to have to make some very tough decisions And it means we're going to have to take out and eliminate some of the kind of wide-boy antics that you can see in this video

40:46Well, the the the thing is that while that may all be true I think as I mentioned given the small amounts of money involved You know, I remember having a conversation with a just a randomly bumping into a very senior media executive at a function of some kind And them saying to me well the problem for reform is They just can't raise the money that they need and so you've got these competing things you say well They've got to professionalize We know this from our own experience running trigonometry what what does professionalize means it means you have to hire people who are better than the people that you have Uh that cost money Where do you get the money from donations? How do you get donations? And then you're back to to where we started this entire conversation to say nothing of the fact by the way that I you know I agree with Winston We know James Personally James or is a very decent and principled and modern man So if I had a fan himself and brought in this Smacks to me either of desperation or of slip of standards or whatever. I don't know

41:46But my point is I don't think it's as easy as you know get a grip and sort it out like the there are structural issues going on here Which is for a party to be successful? You have to raise a lot of money and as we've already talked about you're not competing in the level playing field Everyone else around you is cheating while not being subjected to the same scrutiny And this is what I was going to say from my Russian angle It reminds me a little bit of what happens in Russia where effectively Everyone is guilty But your guilt is identified and investigated not when when it's sort of the police miraculously discover that you've been doing something wrong but rather that when the powers that be decide that now is the time for you to be exposed And so what you have is the the completely Unbalanced application of these rules and norms because I guarantee you I guarantee you that if Independent journalists which these people who are not these were activism were spending tens of thousands of not hundreds of thousands of pounds

42:49Trying to entrap labor officials trying to entrap Tory officials and trying to entrap the officials of other Political parties and similar schemes. They would all come out with egg on their face And the only reason you're not seeing that is that those efforts are not being made equally But rather they're being targeted or because they're seen as the enemy And also just add to that the extent to which the rules aren't being applied or the rules of engagement aren't being applied equally Also the rules around and the law around donations The Labour party been trying to change them precisely in response to reform doing quite well In relation to donations It's one of the many things that Andy Burnham was at to kick into the long grass because he's just got too much to deal with at the moment And there's a story earlier this week They kind of realised that some of the proposed caps on donations would have potentially affected the Labour parties coffers in terms of the union So naturally that's all we've got to rethink this now But again that not only are the the stand is not necessarily being applied equally The government has been trying in real time to change the law

43:52So as to discover the insurgent threat from reform so all of that is very very real And it's like how you deal with that how you kind of scale and also how you do what reform been trying to do Which is genuinely unprecedented in British politics Which is to go from five MPs at one election To potentially being a majority party at the next one We've never seen that before and the of course that's going to come with it A lot of thrills and spills and arguably a bit of corner cutting That's not to excuse any wrongdoing and any alleged criminality if that is what comes out of it of course But that's the context in which all of this has has happened And it's at least worth bearing in mind when we look at the full picture of this All right well moving on to I was going to say I'm let's go to something more like harder But unfortunately this being a topical news show it's all downhill Our next story is of course the story of Lindsey Clancy The trial of Lindsey Clancy and Winston is going to bring us to details So Lindsey Clancy killed her three children in January 2023 and the murder trial has been underway

44:58These last weeks and we have had now Another day where the jury are undecided Neither the prosecution or the defense are disputing that she killed her children Neither the prosecution or defense are disputing that she is mentally unwell What they are disputing is whether this or how capable she is In knowing and perpetrating the killings so it's really a question between whether this is first degree murder Secondary degree murder or manslaughter. I don't think it's a question about acquittal although technically that could be Uh what the jury decides So It continues to go on so that's the the very core of it But at the next sort of level you then have a bunch of people A bunch of women Not just in America but here in Britain As far away as Peru, South Korea, Portugal who are coming to her defense

46:03In the millions has been raised to vent to defend her They were wearing pink and they're outside the courthouse protesting And they are claiming that she is the victim that the real Cop of a Copability lies at the feet of the industrial sorry the uh Medical Institutions that failed her so it is the case that she had been seeing various Professionals for psychiatric help This isn't just made it isn't made up Post-hawk that she had these illnesses there is a there is a A track record of her having postpartum depression and it seems that I don't even think postpartum depression is in dispute right now So that but what's the disputing is is how culpable she is and then there's another Uh

47:05Secondary or tertiary offshoot to this story which is that The a lot of men Or a lot of women are reporting on social media on Reddit and beyond that Their boyfriends or even fjontsays are calling off weddings or ending relationships because when asked About the clancy case They gave answers dissatisfactory to the boyfriend so so men are now ending relationships Because they don't like the answers of the women When it comes to asking their opinion about What should be done and what should be the verdict in this clancy case? I think That's my summation of what's happened. Is that is that I think before we get into the debate And I'm keen to hear everyone's opinions before I give mine I think there's a couple of things that are worth adding factually Winston one yeah, it's not just that She saw different professionals for for very saying so By all accounts including the the testimony of her mother-in-law who believe me as as a married man

48:09I can tell you that is an as objective a source in these circumstances If you're gonna get According to the jury just get her to detire you know prior to pretty well quiet prior to the to the four months in which her mental health deteriorated she was Uh A devoted mother a delivery nurse. I believe Widenly respected in her job and so on had no history of violence towards the children or anyone And was in every way basically a normal decent person who really looked after the kids She was prescribed 12 different medications Including anti-depressants anti-psychotics things to treat her and so on I think pencil die-opany but that does it means By different practitioners many of whom were not in coordination with each other Uh, and she would she committed these killings three weeks after Being uh after coming out of a psych psychiatric facility

49:12so These these just little bits of context and the final one which which will be relevant to my opinion which I'm happy to give later is Her own ex now ex-husband whose children it was that she killed Uh says that she's not evil. She was just ill Uh, I leave it there before for us to get into the discussion And suggest to look at one dimension to it as well, which is the there's a sort of outpouring of sympathy for Lindsey Clancy and the kind of the the growing number of people it seems like who feel that at the very least she wasn't kind of culpable in the same way as one might be if she wasn't suffering From severe mental ill health as they claim there's also of course that kind of conspiratorial fringe which um Basically rejects the idea that she killed these children whatsoever something that even her own defense aren't contesting Completely spurious allegations that the father Patrick who discovered his three children killed and apparently the nine-one monkour which hasn't been allowed to be released

50:13But was played in court was so shocking that most of the jurors were in tears many even the kind of Very battle hard and journalist who in the room, you know covered a lot of very very grim cases were pretty shot by They're gonna prime screams that they heard there's this kind of group of people online which you now see Whenever you have a high profile case like this is kind of weird mix of kind of post-COVID conspiratorialism and sort of true crime fandom which is created this level of Ubersinicism in relation to cases like this they just notably claiming that he did it and using his proof of the fact that he Remarried relatively quickly after the horrors in which he's the suffered as proof of that So there's that dimension to it The one thing that kind of struck me is it even if we park that because there's always gonna be some nutters out there and the thing about Nuttas in 21st century is that they all have social media accounts and more of a platform than they used to have Is there even the kind of outside's level of sympathy for her or identification with her? Is to me quite striking and a little bit Troubling like it would be one thing to say this is an absolute if you take as red her defense

51:15Which is that she was suffering suffering from this postpartum psychosis and as a consequence of that It wasn't the same as if she was completely within her well-minded just decided to do this out of evil or what have you Even if you take that as red the extent to which there are quite large number of women primarily obviously who see Their struggle in her story who see this as part and parcel of a society which doesn't take mental health sufficiently Seriously, I think is a little bit off is a little bit strange It would be a bit like when we had that killer in Nottingham a few years ago Valdo Calakane was a paranoid schizophrenic murdered three people in the midst of a very heightened episode Again, there were various missed opportunities to stop him One of which was the fact that he was black and the local authorities were concerned about putting too many black people in that form of kind of medicalized confinement But nevertheless it would be it's one thing to say that's a horrific story And of course he was not a well-man when it happened But to say we're all Valdo Calakane and to say that isn't this a damning indictment of the way in which our mental health services are failing people

52:20I think we would see as is an odd Response and it's is something that you see Nowadays growing when there is a kind of vaguely worked political script that one could apply to it So it's mental health in this case you even saw a little bit bit of it in the wake of arenas or rucksacks horrific Murder on that bus in Charlotte where you had the local kind of democratic mayor come out and suggest that basically everyone Including the killer was a victim in this because of the failure to take mental health seriously Because he was also clearly quite a depraved man So even if we we recognize the kind of The ambiguity the complicated nature of this. I think that level of kind of full-throated identification with Lindsay Clancy. I think he's a little bit strange as a slight kind of blessed are the murderers Tendency which seems to kick in what provided that there is a kind of political script It could be folded into i.e. mental health and how that's supposedly not taken seriously by society supposedly in this instance I think one of the reasons why this case has captured the imagination beyond the obvious is because what it really talks about and Thomas used the words mental health

53:24When actually mental health is a catch all term which doesn't really mean anything what we're actually talking about here is mental illness And there's someone who I believe it or not has mental illness in their family Um, and I've seen my cousin have suffered from severe schizophrenic episodes in fact. I saw her essentially Breakdown and develop schizophrenia pretty much in front of my eyes You what it talks to is responsibility when somebody is having these types of severe episodes Which the condition that Lindsay Clancy is alleged to suffer from can cause That sparks a debate of responsibility. How much the responsibility does the individual have? How much of it is caused by an illness? How much of it is society's fault for not intervening sooner? How much of this responsibility is belongs to the medical authorities?

54:26How much do these drugs for instance that the medical authorities the doctors that have prescribed actually work How much of it do they exacerbate the condition and how much of it is simply that we don't like to talk about these conditions And when people are suffering from these type of severe mental illnesses Do we just push the people to one side because we just simply don't want to deal with it? And I think that's a lot of what is happening here and why people are reacting so strongly to it Of course as the obvious the three horrific killings etc Because these issues that we are wrestling with as the society in real time Winston you never gave your take on it so why don't you give your take? Yeah So I'll say something that goes against a lot of the right wing commentary here Who seem to be very shocked that this deliberation is taking so long I'm actually not shocked that this deliberation is taking so long. I think It seeing is what it's not being disputed is

55:29That she's being killed what's being disputed is The impact of her conditions on her Uh It for me it's this is bloody complicated and so uh I I'm not actually surprised this is taking so long. I think it's quite difficult If you're going to make force me to come off the fence on on on this one. It's certainly not an uh Easy want to call and I would prefer to do it with more information and and had been in the court case before coming off the fence on this one Which shows how tricky it an issue it is but I also think Regardless of what they decide her culpabilities she should be in prison for a long long time Because as a society we need such crimes must be punished properly And so where whatever they decide whether that's some sort of mental institution or or uh serious prison for me That's for them to decide but she should be locked away. I she cannot

56:30Be free. I that that's where I come off the fence Hmm Well the one thing we haven't addressed so far which is actually to me by the way tragic as the story is I actually don't think this should this should be a new story at all the only reason I've had any opinion on it whatsoever Is the commentary around it which both you know Tom and Winston you've both alluded to which is this first of all this idea that women are quite and quite defending her I'm sure there are a bunch of nutters who are defending her But broadly speaking what I see is a lot of people saying there's not enough understanding of What it's like for women postpartum and some of the hormonal and mental changes I give you very small examples gone under with murdering children But nonetheless is important like my wife is breastfeeding at the moment. We have a four-month-old She if we remember literally the other day we were sitting having breakfast Having a chat about our plans for the week and then the moment the the little one latches on she goes

57:34Baby I literally can't think right now and I can literally it's like you know one of those scenes in a movie where someone in a big Like a server room or a big hangar presses all the lights which is you could just see the brain just like The lights going off That's what it looks like so I think part of the thing that people are trying to to explain to people who maybe don't understand this is The the female brain in these situations in particular nursing postpartum pregnancy etc undergoes extreme hormonal changes and in those situations things occasionally can clearly go very very badly wrong then There's a lot of evidence I remember reading a very long article about The potential for the links between mass shootings in America and the prescription and certain anti-psychotic medications So when you give somebody 12 different medications are all different kinds in a very short period of time Combined with sleep deprivation Compined with postpartum problems combined with hormonal changes all of that together

58:39You may in some individual cases Get this kind of thing and this is why I brought up the factual stuff about her previous conduct and history like I really think about whenever we think about stories like this about trying to put myself Myself in the shoes of some of the people involved where I can relate if I put myself in the shoes of her husband And I go my wife who's up to this point been the the model mother and everything perfect I come home. I find out she's strangled our children and tried to commit suicide a thing we didn't mention In our factual introduction I can totally understand why he says she's not evil. She she was just sick Because if that was to happen to me I'd obviously be horrified and devastated But I'd be like going this is completely out of character So whoever did this is not my wife as I understand her something is happened in that situation And I know that people like very much to make these comparisons with you know the guy who stabbed arenas a rootsco

59:43The paranoid schizophrenic who stab people But I think we also have to recognize that your prior conduct really matters both of those if I remember correctly had a long and extensive deranged criminal history So we're talking about people who have a consistent pattern of behavior that was not dealt with because Of various concerns fears the way the criminal justice system works etc It's not the case here You're talking about somebody who went from being effectively a model citizen to suddenly strangling her three children in some kind of Fit And I think these are very different things And so I totally understand why there's a big campaign about sympathy for her but more broadly Understanding mental illness in relation to these things and the other thing is well We've got to be honest. There is a massive difference between the pattern of male violence and female violence Um, and I think that's relevant in the situation as well I think on that just quickly because what's interesting is that a lot of the

1:00:46New wants around essentially culpability where serious mental illnesses concerned When people want to suspend that discussion depends on the politics and the optics of the situation So go back to the sort of Valdo Calakaine example who wasn't who might understand it kind of deteriorated over a period of years Wasn't Unlike the kind of arenas of risk of situation wasn't a kind of down on that criminal per se but was a student And was had a series of episodes which were violent and weren't dealt with Um in that situation there were a lot of people on the the right who were kind of reflexively saying I don't care about these mental health claims He should he shouldn't be in a medical facility. He should be in prison when it was quite clear That he was in the midst of very deep paranoid schizophrenia was convinced that the state were spying on him That all of these things were really kind of textbook and clearly guided his behavior Then you get the um some of the commentary something on the right around the Clarency trial seems to be Because of the response to and the commentary around the case Has been just sort of so easily folded into a sort of narrative around kind of toxic femininity and the idea like while all these women

1:01:49Seeing themselves in them that therefore again she should not only be locked up but potentially um That she should be potentially you know actually Killed as a consequence of what she has um committed there So again, I think it's one of those things where it's just become another feature of the of the culture war Not particularly useful fashion. I suppose where I find it a bit strange Those again that level of identification with and that level of sympathy for because we can recognize that someone does something absolutely horrific when being quite literally out of their mind But at the same time to see one's own struggle in that person I think is a little bit strange and also we kind of see this conflation go back to a point that Francis was making earlier Of the kind of forms of should we say meant like mental health issues if we're going to use that phrase around I was part of whatever And think what you speak all the baby blues, you know The the very very common experiences of women after having children with this most extreme example We could possibly think about and I think it does get to grips with an issue that we've had for so long in our public discussions around this Is that we talk so much about mental health and the idea of it being

1:02:54In its most minor forms often, you know barely diagnosable and definable issues Is something which we talk about endlessly Meanwhile very clear cut mental illness and the way in which you completely can destroy a person's psyche leave them Danger to themselves and others is something which is oddly speaking a less sexy and interesting issue Even though it's much more consequential serious in cases like this So being able to disaggregate those two things. I think is really important if we're ever going to get clear-eyed Sense of not just cases like this, but how we think about this issue in general Well, and it's also as well Tom We simply don't know how to deal with this issue. We don't know how to deal with serious mental illness We don't know how to deal with These these people when they're when they're a danger to themselves or to others and in particular in the states This is true. I mean go around any city in the United States in the city center And you will see people who are profoundly mentally unwell Unable to take care of themselves posing a danger to themselves and maybe to other people as well

1:03:57What do you mean maybe Walking around a lot of these places it's terrifying No, I'm saying but they may be posing a danger to other people or to themselves or I'm saying it's not there's not maybe about it They were keenly attack other people and and because they they are in that state And it's because by the way I don't know if you know this but I suspect you do it's because You know There was a point there was a big Anti-institutionalization movement in America which basically said that the way to help people who by the way in those days Often were held in institutions where they were badly treated and those institutions were You know, I'm not up to the standards that we would want them to be The way to deal with that is to let these people out onto the streets because that's freedom And that's you know, that's it's liberating them from the constraints of institutions That's why you have the the zombie hordes that you do see and in the centers of major American cities

1:04:58No absolutely so and then but that speaks to a to a wider problem Which is nobody as of yet has a solution to this very very important issue That actually affects a lot of people and You and is actually it's kind of damning indictment about our society as a whole Because if you're not going to look after people and of the risk of sounding well who are actually truly vulnerable And can't support themselves and are adancer to themselves or others Then we've gone we've gone wrong somewhere Well, I don't know if it kind of works on this but it's it's a bit so if you like take somewhere like California Billions is being spent trying to deal with this problem or of What is mental illness but on the surface level homelessness and drug addiction Um, the it's not a question of a desire to try and do something about it is that they come

1:05:58The ideology around the problem is so twisted that they that they actually are making things worse because they're incentivizing the bad behavior This is something that I know you've had Michael Schellenberger on your show. He's been on my show a couple of times And he's exposed this and and really shown this so I think that the society does actually want to help this But progressive ideology in particular in places like California is exacerbating the problem Well, this is why I brought up the D institutional D institutionalization movement because actually I do think there is an answer to this Which is if someone is a danger to themselves and or other people then they have to be in the facility Where yes, they are deprived of their liberty for a period of time Until we can be certain that they're not longer in danger to themselves or others Those are unpleasant trade-offs of this terrible reality the mental illnesses of things that that exist But throwing these people out into the street to to smoke fentanyl and be The victims of the most horrific life circumstances is not the solution

1:07:01I feel that that in short history of of the fence that has been the most on the fence segment that we've had Well, actually trying to be nuanced about it, but look I think we live in this era of Sloppillism where every issue is presented as this sort of black and white good versus evil debate between You know the men who are correct to dump all their girlfriends and the women who who have gone all of them have gone mental over this I really don't think that if you're splitting up with your girlfriend because she has a slightly more sympathetic Understanding of someone who had a terrible mental episode You're probably an idiot. Anyway, there's me off the fence. It's a new Brexit constant in Yes, he breaks it exactly Final story of the week is of course Andy Burnham is back Francis He's back back again Telefrand so I actually think this is possibly the most important story of The previous week or rather this week that wasn't really covered

1:08:02But actually speaks to a very real problem that our country has and is going to dominate conversation either directly or indirectly And that is Andy Burnham refusing to rule out tax increases in the new budget So he refused to rule out tax rises He was also promised by 2030 to increase the defense spending to 3% of GDP So he's already promised to spend more money there Cost of government borrowing has risen to its highest level in 18 years We have a 100% debt to GDP ratio debt interests cost us around 120 billion a year some economists say a little bit lower or some at some say higher But that's pretty much the average figure and our debt now is double what it was After the financial crisis in 2008 and when Andy Burnham and this is where it gets really interesting

1:09:07When he was asked when he was blaming essentially the reasons For our current financial woes do you know what he blamed it on it's good. Let's play left wing bingo gents come on what did he blame it on Thatcher Brexit The far right who else is no no no no it's got to be this trust No, it's Brexit it is Brexit it is um it is uh that shirt there's one more It's not less trust is it No come on It's the beginning with a The billion earth or sterility or sterility there you go So well thatcher is a funny one isn't it because thatcher was of course became prime minister before any of us were born And sadly we're no longer that young so it's incredible Uh, I was going to mention so oh yes The reason I brought up this trust of course is we all remember how she crashed the British economy famously

1:10:07According to all the media well Unbeknownst to the media class who promoted that story as vigorous Liz they did Bond yields this week are higher than they were at the peak of the list trust crashing of the economy Um now that's not to say the list trusted everything perfectly certainly not but I think this just this general Financial illiteracy in the media class and uh increasingly in the political class that comes with it as well Which is why we're having this conversation process No absolutely and this is a conversation that we're going to continue to have because With the path and the trajectory that we are on is quite simply unsustainable for this country And we are going to have to make some decisions and we're going to have to make some very difficult decisions And these are decisions which are going to make the current political party and the leader unpopular Now where Andy Burnham is is I would argue that he's at the peak of popularity because he hasn't had to make any decisions yet

1:11:12But unfortunately for him and he is going to have to get and I quote off the fence at some point And actually make some political decisions Particularly fiscal ones if we are going to Progress and turn the sinking ship that is the UK economy around I think it's quite rare situation in which the substance of the Prime Minister we have and the scale of the problems we face A so mismatched the same was true of the Estarma but we're kind of expected to be Even pleasantly surprised that Andy Burnham can like string a sentence together You got bordering on bankruptcy as you say Francis the borders are still broken I've got this like glorified bus conductor who has managed to find his way into number 10 It's a really Dispiriting spectacle and part of the reason that obviously the markets are so skittish because Andy Burnham was mr I don't want to be in hot to the bond market. It's not too long ago And this is the problem you might not want to be in hot to the bond markets But we are in hot to the bond markets you can lament the fact that

1:12:12We have allowed ourselves to come so exposed that that is the case and you could put in place policies to bring down the debt Over time in a significant way to pursue the kind of policies which would not only be good in terms of easing market tensions But would also be good for society getting on top of the welfare bill ending the the kind of social tragedy that is 70 people being put out to Pasture and all of the sort of downstream fiscal effects of that Um, but you can't just wish it away and it seems what we're the problem with Andy Burnham I think that we're going to end up with is that Partly because it doesn't have his own mandate and therefore even if he wanted to have some sort of drastic break with Starmorism or thaturism or any kind of is and we kind of couldn't Um, but also because of the just inability to get anything vaguely sensible for the labor back benches these days who have become kind of captured by What is often euphemistically called the soft left, but it's basically the most vives based on principle We just we're labor and we do nice things kind of section of the party

1:13:13Um, that is we're just going to have loads of trundling along like it's just going to be walking of a kind of tightrope Not wanting to do anything that would seem unfair to this section of society or unkind towards those who supposedly need to be in recit of the enormous state largest Which is now laid on towards them Um, so we're going to it's just going to be more of the same i'd dare say and i think Was that that might change if an early election comes our way or what have you we're kind of doomed to continuity starmarism where this is concerned which is not anything that anyone should be excited about It's a really interesting point you make particularly about the the fact that you know Burnham famously said he doesn't want to be in hawk to the bond markets is we're Britain is like that position is like a bit of like 35-year-old who still lives with his parents and borrows money from them every month go I don't want to be at hawk to my parents well The second roof that you moron Yeah, you have to make it personal make but you know You got no one back

1:14:15You know what i mean is like if you keep borrowing money from people Yeah If you keep borrowing money from people you will be in hawk to them and For the reasons the frances laid out beautifully we are now extremely in hawk to them in fact You know one of the things we talked about the the bond yields Britain is paying a premium i don't know if you know this uh we were we're all similar age i think Certainly in in my 20s and early 30s the the the the basket case countries of the world of europe were Greece and Italy we now have higher bond yields than both grees and italy in this country Because our economic policies our governments policies have created a situation where we are less trusted to repay our debts than Greece and Italy that is the reality um and you know the the point about this is the the biggest problem with all of this is none of it will be solved by the policies that are being

1:15:17Advocated for or pursued because raising taxes is not going to solve this problem Because you cannot tax even more to pay for all this spending that we kind of forward the We spend more and welfare now as we said earlier in this conversation Then we raise in income tax This is insane. This isn't saying and by the way, it's not all scroungers. It's not all people who've been you know Abusing the system a lot of it is people who simply don't have jobs because of the economic policies that our governments pursued And a lot of it by the way is because we have an aging population of pensioners who continue to vote for Policies that protect and support them at the expense of their children and grandchildren And that is another massive problem that no one wants to talk about And it's also so many problems that are unique in this country like just very quickly Sorry, where's the things like the growth in sickness benefits and outwork benefits amongst the young And which is you know the idea that the young would become a particular area of interest for the welfare state

1:16:21Just grace against what the whole point of it was to look after the old and the sick and so on You know and the destitute rather than those who actually should have a bit of get up and go That's often blamed as a kind of post-COVID thing whether that relates to mental health or long COVID or some kind of bollocks like that You look at other European countries You do not see that pattern repeated so there have been particular decisions that we have made in this country Which have made the issue so much worse and there's there's a kind of Refusal to grapple with that. That's just a constant kind of gesture to how terrible it is across the peace and what have you and The fact that these are factors almost entirely out of the government's control That's just not good enough. There's things that you can do you can act and you can try and deal with And clean up the mess of a lot of what has happened in the quite recent past that would start to the men this You know you don't have to have a reckoning with 40 years of failed policies Andy Burnham might see it to get us back on the right track Even in the near-town I think Just to add even more detail 30-year bonials are now at the high f they've been since 1998

1:17:21the Problem we've got is that there's looming tax increases without serious talks about decreases or or sorry without decrease elsewhere or welfare decreases and they just so I'm not to be contrarian here or I'm not actually against some certain Tax increases if they're offset with decreases elsewhere What Burnham is doing? It is so the the other big thing and this is a guy I keep an eye on called Lord Jim Neal He's famous because he he's a labor-grandy. He took coin the turn bricks and he was at JP Morgan And it was room there were some rubbers that Gary Stevenson was going to be the Economics advisor for Burnham which was all nonsense But it was more true that Jim O'Neal was and he and Jim turned it down Because and he said he didn't want to give up his business His businesses and and dealings

1:18:23But he's someone really worth keeping an arm because he would have given Burnham A seriousness in government because he's someone who does understand the bond markets and does understand how To work a budget in a way that would keep the markets and the city settled He has said this week that Capital gains tax Increases are looming now. I don't want capital gains tax because it's going to be tax on me But I'm in theory not against capital gains tax if there's massive reduction in income tax and actually you have you create incentive For people to work what we're seeing is just more tax Uh and no real decrease in welfare so things can only get worse But the most offensive thing to me of all of this is watching Andy Burnham's pmq's and his various Videos from cabinet meetings and the amount of times he says

1:19:23Uh or um He puts the uh in Burnham And That Burnham as a word Starts with an ur and ends of an arm because those are the two sounds Basically only here from that man. It is so offensive to me that he talks like that So frustrating to hear can he not does he not have convictions? Can he not just speak shoot from the hip? What does it? What do you think man? That thing drives me more insane than the tax talk By orders of magnitude So it's what he was hoping fans I was gonna say welcome to off the thanks where we give things their true a measure of priority That's the same world in the Exactly exactly Well, uh gentlemen that I think is us for the week. Thank you for being here Thank you for watching and listening make sure you subscribe to trigonometry the wins the martial show and of course spike and share this with a friend

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