Trump & Hegseth Are Increasingly Delusional on Hormuz; TACO Incoming? | Morning Chaser

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All right, I think we are live.

Hello everybody out there in TV land.

My name's Andrew Egger with the Bullwork.

Welcome to Morning Chaser.

I am joined as always on Tuesday mornings

by my Morning Shots co-author Bill Crystal, editor at large of the Bullwork.

We write the Morning Shots newsletter.

We did another one this morning as we do every morning Monday through Friday.

We're here to talk a little bit about it,

a little bit about some other stuff that's going on in the world too.

Bill, are you sick yet of talking about the straightforward moves?

I'm talking about what's going on in the world of oil

and all the bad things that are piling up around us or is this the sort of thing

that gets you out of bed in the morning?

I like Andrew, could be with you first of all.

I like your retro TV land.

Shouldn't you be saying video land or YouTube land or podcast land

or sub-stack land or something.

But anyway, not to criticize, it's okay if you want to cater to it.

But you're too young to have grown up.

Well, I guess even you grew up in TV land right here.

Yeah, I mean, people watch this stuff on their TV.

Well, it's a good point. That shows how it's actually.

Totally dislocated, right?

Nobody has any idea who's coming, where from where,

where it's being received, where it's being sent from.

You're at home.

I'm in the Bullwork Office right now.

I mean, people might see some contractors over my shoulder

who are around, you know, putting TVs up on walls

and doing things that you need in a modern office space.

But yes, you're correct.

I should have said out in the modern world of streaming.

Now, you're right to correct my correction,

because, and it fits into the topic of the day,

which is the Trump administration's a little confused

about what world we're in.

I would say, I don't get...

I mean, look, it's important, obviously.

It's very important.

I do think it's the biggest decision of Trump's second term,

probably.

I guess maybe going with the mass deportation agenda

might compete with that.

But I think around the land,

I'm having even, I'm thinking,

we'll have major, major consequences

on Trump's presidency,

but more importantly, on U.S. foreign policy

and on the world and the global economy

and global geopolitics.

So it's a big moment.

And I argue this morning, the Trump is likely to...

I've been arguing this for three, four weeks,

and I've gone back and forth, actually.

It's not certainly uncertain with Trump,

but an uncertain in general.

But I think he's backing off.

I think he's heading for the exits on Iran.

But, you know, I already got a text for a good friend

saying, you're probably right,

but very important to emphasize.

And I do think I make this point quickly,

at least in the newsletter.

It's still a bad outcome.

And I think it is a less bad outcome

than escalating to ground troops.

But either way, I think the whole thing

has been, if he asked, go.

But you've been focusing a lot

on the economic side of it, the Joe.

What's happening?

And how much of that already is...

Whatever he does now is already built in.

So maybe talk about that a little bit.

Unless you're too tired.

Unless you're too tired of Iran to talk about it.

I don't know.

No, I'm a sicko for this stuff.

I mean, I'm very fascinated by this story.

Let me set the table a little bit here

for like what kind of the up to the minute thing is.

Because in some respect, it's the same story.

It's been all along, right?

The Strait of Hormones is closed.

And that's horrible for everybody.

But I think that we are really beginning to see.

For a long time, it was...

The story was the Strait of Hormones is closed.

And it's horrible for everybody.

But people are kind of hoping

there will be a relatively prompt resolution.

And so everyone's just sort of holding their cards

and trying to brace in the short term.

And we'll see what happens next.

And I think we're starting to see a page turn

on that to kind of a second act in all of this.

So let me just put up a couple headlines here.

This is from Bloomberg a couple of days ago.

The Strait of Hormones oil shock

is now heading west.

Obviously, the biggest problem so far in the immediate term

was in Asia, in China, especially.

You know, where a lot of this oil was bound,

you know, oil does not come out of the Strait of Hormones

to go to the United States of America.

So all of the issues that we were feeling

in terms of higher gas prices and all of that,

that was all very indirect, right?

But the direct stock is already hitting in Asia.

They're seeing not only high prices,

but actually shortages, which are sort of a different

sort of beast altogether.

And energy analysts are starting to warn

that is not going to remain purely in Asian problem either.

You know, like we've seen these upticks

in the prices of oil.

You know, they're north of $100 a barrel now.

We're setting new highs again this morning.

Analysts are warning, that could be nothing.

You know, that could be, that could be,

we could see $200 a barrel before the end of all of this.

So we're very, very early days.

As far as the actual Strait itself is concerned,

we've got some numbers on that too.

You know, there's, there's a, let's throw this up.

Settle rise in non-Iranian trade through Hormones.

You know, we're starting to see a very few vessels

that are not Iranian vessels moving through a handful every day.

You know, as, as Iran sets up,

but basically a permitting system,

a toll booth, a checkpoint to basically say,

you know, pull up to us, give us a little bit of money,

a couple million dollars, and we'll let you through

and we won't try to drive, you know, a speedboat

into the side of your, into the side of your vessel

or hit you with a drone.

So there's a little bit of this,

a little bit of a tick northward of this.

But, you know, the, go to the third slide here.

This is from Gulf Business.

I mean, it is still a trickle of a trickle

compared to what we were seeing before.

I'll just read here,

shipping through the Strait of Hormones

has slowed to a near standstill.

With 181 vessels recorded passing through the waterway

between March 1st and March 30th of 2026 down from,

you know, about 138 a day as the pre-existing status quo.

So like I said, a fraction of a fraction here.

And this is after weeks and weeks of war, right?

I'm so, so you've got the president weighing in on this.

You've got Secretary Hegseth,

who just did a briefing about an hour ago,

weighing in on some of this too.

I was not particularly reassured by any of this.

So let's hit what Hegseth had to say this morning

about the Strait.

Before moves, there are many more vessels flowing through today

than there were as the president has arranged.

The president's been clear to Iran,

open it for business or we have options and we certainly do.

And when you look at what the chairman laid out

with the Navy, with the Navy Industrial Base,

with coastal cruise missiles, with UAVs,

with counter-mine capabilities,

we've been focused from the beginning

on a trading and defeating those capabilities

and limiting their options.

Yeah, and I could go through a critique of like,

why that's kind of a crazy way of looking at it.

But I actually don't have to do that

because the president himself in a cabinet meeting on Tuesday

basically laid out why this sort of military only strategy

to the Strait of we're just going to keep bombing him

and bombing him and bombing him

until the Strait is magically reopened.

Doesn't really work.

It's not actually effective when it comes to achieving

the objectives of getting these companies

to feel comfortable and safe moving their ships

through the Strait again.

So let's play a Trump from the cabinet meeting on Tuesday.

Trump with the Strait is this.

Let's say we do a great job.

We say we got 99%, 1% is unacceptable

because 1% is a missile going into the hall

of a ship that costs a billion dollars, right?

So 1% is on a, if we do a 99% decimation, that's no good.

Yeah, I guess I said Tuesday.

That was from last week.

I can't remember now at the top of my head

if I'm actually correctly saying it was Tuesday.

That was the cabinet meeting last week.

But that's the whole problem, right?

I mean, that's the problem that they're basically stuck with

is they continue to trump it.

There are military capabilities here.

But meanwhile, Iran, as it has all along,

is exercising complete economic control of the Strait

and it seems to have no interest in letting

that number of ships take up.

I mean, meanwhile, you have the strange split screen

of Trump viewing each individual ship

that passes through as like an objective achieved, right?

I mean, like, Iran lets six ships through on a day

and Trump calls it like this amazing prize

that they gave us, or they let eight ships through

the next day and Pete Hegsett gets up there, you know?

Look what the president has arranged

as he said in that clip.

I mean, it's the disconnect between the actual facts

on the ground and the actual crisis that is engendering

in real time right now.

And this insane sort of lackadaisical,

totally divorced from reality way

that the administration talks about it is.

I mean, it's unbelievable.

It's striking.

So you bill a little bit about this today.

I mean, I think you're correct.

Like the status quo cannot continue like this.

But I mean, what do you see?

What are kind of the tea leaves that you're reading

as far as, you know, where this goes from here

with this administration's rhetoric?

I mean, you're right about the magnitude of it.

People haven't maybe quite internalized that yet.

I mean, if you go from 20% of the world's oil flowing through

there to, I guess, what is it?

What are 2% now, really, right?

I mean, it's a massive drop.

And so how do you make up for that remaining 17% to 18%?

Well, you get a, obviously you can increase the production

elsewhere and ship some stuff around various other ways.

But that's a big hit for oil, but also petrochemicals

and so forth, things that are essential to so much

of the world's economy, basically.

And people are saying it's the biggest supply side shock

in modern top recent times.

And I do have the sense we're talking to a few people

reading a little bit of stuff here that it's, as you say,

first week or two, very unfortunate pay a little price,

but kind of a big disruption, but manageable.

A month, week, serious effects and clearly the markets

are beginning to are seeing those.

Six weeks, eight weeks, you start hitting some cliffs.

Their businesses have 30 days, 45 days of backup often

of what they need.

Taiwan supposedly has what it needs for its chips

for another 10, 12 days.

They don't have two or three months often of backup.

And if some of this stuff isn't coming through,

it's not coming through, or if the price is doubling

or tripling or quadrupling or whatever.

And so the real world effects, I think,

it's not just incremental.

It's not just to get 1% or 2% worse each day.

It sort of gets worse gradually,

and then suddenly you start hitting some cliffs.

So I think that's the sense of urgency.

That sense of urgency has led Trump at times,

and hexath, I guess, seemingly fairly often.

And certainly plenty of foreign policy analysts

to say, well, I guess he has to go in with troops

and sort of really resolve the situation.

The trouble is every military person

that I happen to talk to so this weekend,

who has looked at the seriously thinks

the ground troops still can't resolve the situation.

I mean, unless you have 100,000 troops,

and you're going to go in and basically conquer

a whole chunks of Iran and so forth.

If you don't have a regime change,

and if you don't have a large number of ground troops,

really large number of ground troops,

they can lob stuff wherever we put our two Marines

or soldiers on the shore of the strait or in Cargailand

or whatever we can escort some ships through.

Probably we can if we really wanted to vote

big resources, big parts of the Navy to doing that,

but then you're escorting a handful of ships through,

right, and Trump's correct remains good.

Doesn't solve the problem of regular merchant Marineships,

not being insurance, not paying for,

not willing to insure ships to go through.

So it really has it, I think, something of a crisis point,

which means it's either escalation

or kind of finding a face saving

or not so face saving deal by Trump.

I do think he's been sigling,

I mean, there's so much bluster,

there's so much contradictions,

there's so much just craziness

and everything he says and does.

Some of it, maybe you want to give him a little credit,

intentional misdirection or bluffing,

but a lot of it just Trump being Trump,

who knows, I mean, I think it's 60, 40 or two to one,

maybe that he now is basically in a head for the exits,

find a way out mode, but it's two to one, not 10 to one.

So I wouldn't be wildly surprised if we have ground troops

landing in two days or something.

I think that scenario is so bad

that the kind of trying to find a way out,

not quite, not around won't quite open the street,

right away, they'll be negotiations,

third parties, Pakistanis, Oman, Japan,

they'll be implicit bribes, maybe to the Iranian regime

to step up and maybe two, three weeks or now,

Trump will be able to say, see, it has kind of opened up

and we damage Iran's ballistic missile

and other offensive capabilities.

It took a little hint to the economy,

but now the trade's back open and all as well.

I just final point is I would say it all is not well.

I mean, Iran will establish the principle

that it can close the street and not pay a massive price.

So when you pay to be price and obviously

in terms of all the bombing,

but not pay the fundamental price of regime change

or anything, very, very bad precedent to take,

to make, to establish.

I think we've, of course, our allies are all just,

can't believe we've done this with no consultation

and so recklessly and foolishly,

the Gulf states are all sitting around thinking,

you know, they go in halfway against our wishes

and then they don't finish the job against our wishes.

Is this really the kind of ally we want?

So I think it's a big disaster for U.S. foreign policy

and really for the world in terms of global stability

and not good for the economy either.

Having said all that,

I guess my current thought speculation,

I think I said in the newsletter,

is that Trump is looking to head for the exits

rather than escalating.

Yeah, and there are, you know, obviously he is a famously

mercurial guy.

He could, you know, turn on a dime

and move in a different direction,

but I totally agree with you.

Like right now the tea leaves are 100% pointing

in that direction.

One of the ways that you can see this,

I'm going to jump ahead a little bit in the elements,

but one of the ways that you can see this,

is in the ways that they're talking about regime change, right?

I'm the way that in just the last couple of days,

the president and then especially Pete Hexeth this morning

have basically said, well, if you really squint,

if you think about it, you know,

we killed all the leaders who were running things before.

We have different leaders now.

We have every competence that these leaders

are going to be easier to work with.

So regime change has basically already happened.

Let's, let's real quick play a clip of Pete Hexeth again,

just about an hour ago,

saying that at the press conference this morning.

The Iranian regime should know that by now.

This new regime, because regime change has occurred,

should be wiser than the last.

President Trump will make a deal, he is willing.

And the terms of the deal are known to them.

If Iran is not willing,

then the United States War Department

will continue with even more intensity.

Yeah, and I want to play one more clip from Pete here

in a second, just to really kind of highlight

how just sort of silly,

I mean, this whole business of like,

oh, you won't make a deal now.

I guess we'll hit you harder tomorrow.

We'll see if you'll be willing to make a deal the next day.

I mean, like they've been playing this public strategy now

for a month, right?

They have indeed succeeded in taking out

a bunch of Iranian leaders.

But the ones, I mean, the idea that the ones

who are now in there, we have every confidence

they're going to be more willing to negotiate.

I mean, the straight was open before the war,

and now it's closed.

It's the new leaders who are the ones

who are continuing to maintain this situation.

And now we would need to see it

as a giant diplomatic victory,

just to take the straight back

to the preexisting status quo.

But just to kind of put a fine point on this,

I just wanted to play a quick compilation

of how Hegseth has been talking about this.

We've got clips from March 13th and March 19th.

And then again, from today,

all of which are him basically saying the same thing of,

of, you know, we are just, you know,

beating the shit out of them militarily

and it's weakening their position.

And any second now, they're going to have to, you know,

cry uncle and give us what we want.

But let's just play that set of clips real quick.

Well, it is unshakable.

Our options maximized and our capabilities still building.

We're going up, they're going down.

In fact, today will be, yet again,

the highest volume of strikes that America has put

over the skies of Iran and Tehran,

the number of sorities, the number of bomber pulses,

the highest yet ramping up and only up.

And again, today will be the largest strike package yet,

just like yesterday was.

As I've said from day one,

our capabilities continue to build.

Iran's continue to degrade on the battlefield

because of the latitude the president has given us.

Now this American firepower is only increasing.

Iran's decreasing.

We have more and more options and they have less.

Just one month in, only one month.

We set the terms.

The upcoming days will be decisive.

Iran knows that.

And there's almost nothing they can militarily do about it.

Almost nothing they can militarily do about it,

but a lot they can do about it economically,

which has been the problem the entire time.

I don't know, Bill, is there any way to read this

other than just, I mean, throwing good missiles

after bad?

Yeah, they're not even, I mean,

they looked like they were worried to save them

militarily about 10 days in.

And remember, they're not really going way down

in terms of missiles and also drones, drone attacks.

And then they started, as soon as they had some stuff

from reserve and they kind of knew what they were doing

and maybe they got some targeting help for the Russians.

And suddenly they're destroying an AWACS

that we had on the Saudi air base that cost $700 million.

And you know, quite a precise hit.

And so yeah, I mean, heck, that's just, I mean,

but these sounds to me like a guy,

and I hadn't, yeah, I wrote the morning shots

before his ADM thing pretty much this morning.

I mean, the pathetic backpedaling.

So they started off for regime change.

That's gone.

Now they've, but they can't admit they didn't do that.

I don't know what you're talking about, Bill,

the regime change.

It happened.

I mean, that is so laughable when it's literally

the kid of the previous, you know, who's in there

and the IORGC.

I mean, I'm not shedding any tears for the people who've gone,

but anyways, yes, the regime change happened.

And that's a kind of a pathetic attempt to rationalize it.

The nukes have receded some in the talking points.

That was very clear yesterday in both Carolyn Levitt

and the White House and Rubio.

And now it's sort of vague stuff about, you know,

we sort of making sure they don't acquire nuclear capacity

in the future.

I don't think this is what,

there was that stuff over the weekend

about going in to get the nuclear material.

Again, this could all reverse,

and maybe we'll doing that tomorrow.

It's all a big misdirection.

But I think on nukes, they're backing off

into something much more.

The standard kind of US position,

which is we won't allow them to get a nuclear weapon.

And they'll say, we're not don't wonderfully weapon.

We just don't do some research.

And then we'll have the usual,

maybe there'll be some more bombing,

six or 18 months from now or something.

But and then on the straight,

they move from back even from the three week,

the one week ago position, which was

a weird deterrent to reopen the straight.

There's no can of any agreement.

That's a core demand of ours.

Of course, it's only closed

because we started this all, but anyway.

And now it's all sort of literally yesterday.

Rubio said, and I guess certainly Rubio said,

and I guess Levin said too, well, we're going to get,

yeah, it's only what is we reopen.

And kind of more of a thing for the Europeans

and maybe after we'll happen in the next few weeks,

I think one of them said.

So again, I think that's actually, well, be true.

But again, the degree to which the foreign policy

professionals once talked to if they

bracket the fact that Trump is president,

which for me is one of the core reasons

we should not be for escalation.

And we should be glad, honestly,

if he has for the exercise, he's so irresponsible

and reckless, you don't want more war, you know?

But in a normal world, this is such a defeat for the US.

To go to start this war and join Israel

and starting this war at this time

and then end up retreating without even

an iron commitment, a real commitment,

or a real evidence of opening this trade.

Now maybe he'll get that excited.

Maybe Iran has been pummeled a lot and they'll decide,

you know what, we can open it anyway,

probably in two, three, four weeks,

we have our own interest in doing so.

We're not going to play this game forever.

And so we'll open it tomorrow and have 40 ships.

I mean, it's possible that Trump, like a little,

they might decide to be a little,

give Trump a little more of a face-saving victory, though,

that's not been their general mode of the erotic,

of the same erotic regime,

which Trump is leaving in power.

So a pretty humiliating thing all at all.

I guess that's what strikes me.

And again, we haven't seen it.

I think this is your point.

We haven't seen all the economic effects yet.

And I kind of think even if the thing stops tomorrow,

I think those can continue for,

there'll be some of the markets will look forward

and sort of such as, he's a bit of a sigh of relief,

but those effects are not going the way right away,

you know, for not look gasoline and stuff.

So pretty disastrous for Trump.

Don't you think politically too?

I mean, I don't think these new low polls

are totally unconnected from this war,

which has been going on for a month.

I mean, so there's enough time for people

to assimilate that it's been happening, right?

Well, he is, I mean, he is just objectively hitting

new record lows, at least for his second term

in terms of polls.

But I think it's interesting that you bring up

his sort of domestic messaging on this, right?

Because I wanted to put up a truth post

that he sent out just this morning,

which honestly, if anything, it makes me more worried

about exactly the things you're talking about

that he doesn't know how to reopen the street.

And he's already sort of seeding an argument

for how to survive this domestically

by not solving this crisis that's coming,

but trying to figure out some other person to blame

for this crisis that's coming.

So I'll read this.

This is just from this morning.

All of those countries that can't get jet fuel

because of the Strait of Hormuz,

like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved

in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you.

Number one, buy from the US, we have plenty.

And number two, build up some delayed courage,

go to the strait and just take it.

You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself.

The USA won't be there to help you anymore,

just like you weren't there for us.

Iran has been essentially more or less decimated.

The hard part is done.

Go get your own oil, President Donald J. Trump.

I mean, if you take him at his word there,

which is always risky with this guy,

but if you're just taking the plain things

that he's saying at his word,

it's essentially a renunciation of culpability

for the, for the Strait of Hormuz

as it exists, as it's gonna exist in the future.

In theory, we're still under this like twice extended ultimatum

where the president has said,

Iran, you better reopen it and get it back to normal

or else, or else the big guns are coming.

This is a totally different character of thing

where he's essentially, I mean,

it's, and it's, there are so many different Trump pathologies

that come into this.

We've talked before about his sort of magical thinking

of, if you look at it a certain way,

the Strait being closed is actually good for the United States

because we are an energy exporter

and you know, this is good for our oil companies here

and we can sell oil to, you know, around the world

and, and reap a big, reap a big windfall.

Like that's one part of his thinking here.

But the other part of the thing here is this is just not the,

these are just not the places your mind goes

if you are confident that you're gonna be able

to reopen the Strait as you are supposedly projecting power

against Iran in order to do and to basically say,

well, look, you know, six months from now,

gas is $6 a gallon as people are going to the polls.

I mean, there is no good case that he can make here

but apparently the case he intends to make here is,

look, don't blame me, blame the UK.

You know, if they'd come in, it's their oil,

we were only there to kind of help out.

Notwithstanding, in fact, that we started the war,

but you know, look, I mean, if they wanted an open Strait,

they should have helped us out with it.

They should be doing it today, you know, blame,

blame the UK or blame Germany or something like that.

I mean, this is the explicit case that he's making.

I just, it boggles my mind.

No, it is mind boggling.

You're absolutely right.

You're really emphasizing this because it's mind boggling

for a broader geopolitical strategic point of view.

For 50 years, it's been US doctrine, core doctrine

and we've fought wars to enforce it,

especially in 1991, the first Gulf War,

that we have an interest in the possibility in the Gulf,

and the free flow of oil and of energy from the Gulf

in defending friendly regimes in the Gulf,

and not letting enemy regimes, whatever setback you've had,

not giving them clear victories if possible.

I mean, this has been a kind of considered a core US interest.

Now, Trump doesn't seem to think it is.

It probably doesn't really think it is.

Some of his people don't because they are America,

but they'd like to be isolationists of some kind or other.

But I think you're absolutely right to point to his wish

to have someone to kick around, to blame,

and it's going to be the allies.

We're soon going to be our ex allies,

but you know what, I really think he's slaying the groundwork

for it, and you can see this in some of the posts

over the last two, three weeks, getting out of NATO.

Suddenly, you got obsessed with NATO,

didn't you know, and untrue social and all that?

Why? NATO is not an issue.

I mean, this was never going to be a NATO war.

We didn't ask that it be a NATO war.

NATO didn't ask that they be involved.

It was just a, it was like many other wars we fought

that were not NATO wars, you know,

they just, it was our own action, as June was,

and as Venezuela was, and fine, better or worse.

But I do think this is the,

what Trump will try to turn this into

is I'm the guy who pummeled Iran,

and I'm the guy who got us out of this terrible alliance,

we dragged into all these things by these weak-need countries,

who just wanted us to help them and never helped us.

I feel like that's where we're going rhetorically

over the next several months.

And it's, it will be an acceleration of the kind of destruction

of the post-World War II,

order and alliance structure that Trump has been on,

on a path to, to destroying for 14, 15 months now.

But I think this really accelerates it.

I think in Asia, to be Japan looks at this and thinks what?

I mean, we get all so much of our oil through there,

and we have this close relationship,

and no one's talking to Trump is just making these decisions

without consulting us, and maybe will we think that, you know,

I just think the degree to which this is a big blow

to the whole geopolitical geostrategic

and geoeconomic order point you've made,

a point JVL's made, right?

I mean, it's not like these things aren't connected,

why is the US dollar the reserve currency?

Well, because we're also the core,

the anchor of the defense system

and the geopolitical system.

So I think it's bad,

but he's got us into this himself, into this terrible bind,

and there's no, I mean, you can get lucky,

anything could happen, we could land some troops,

and suddenly the regime could collapse, who knows?

But it is not a good moment for United States sort of America.

Yeah, I mean, barring some sort of real change like that.

I mean, that would totally scramble the playbook,

who knows how Trump might benefit economically,

or you know, how it would be hard to game out

what would happen in a world where suddenly,

you know, Trump's demands are being met,

and the regime is just sort of acquiescing.

Obviously, at baseline, we can say,

it would be good for the global economy,

it would be good for Trump politically.

We should all breathe a sigh,

really, honestly, if that happens,

because barring that, who the heck knows

how the Strait of Hormuz is ever gonna get reopened?

I mean, I think barring that situation,

if we're in this world where that's not happening,

and where Trump is sort of trying to message this explanation

for why the Strait has stayed closed,

and the energy shock has gone on, and all these things.

I mean, I think he's insane, if he thinks that this,

this will actually help him politically,

who will save him politically,

this sort of blame-shifting thing.

I mean, people are gonna blame the president

for the fact that he started this war,

and then oil prices went berserk in perpetuity,

if that is indeed what happens.

Like, he will not get off the hook for that.

But the fact that he is trying to make this argument

means that not only will we have this energy shock,

but as you say, I mean, the other awful consequences

that are going to pile up as he attempts to wriggle

out of the political consequences

of this oil shock that he himself launched

are also going to be pretty catastrophic.

I mean, it's all just,

the more you talk about this stupid, remarkable insane war.

I mean, you can talk until you're blue in the face

and just like not run out of depressing things

to point out and depressing things to say about it.

I just wanna do one more second on Hegseth

just because, you know, it is obvious

that they have sort of backed themselves

into a corner here, and really all that is left

in terms of Hegseth to sell this conflict

is to do the stuff he's been doing all along

where he gets really dewey about, you know,

our great troops and, you know, how noble and capable

and good they are and then sort of seasons at all

with, you know, Christian language about God

being on our side in this conflict.

So let's just get a little taste of Hegseth this morning

on that front before we leave the Iran talk behind.

Speaking here this morning in this briefing room,

in my mind's eye, I'm actually looking out at the groups

I met this weekend, the pilots, the logisticians,

the intel analysts, the targeters, the sustainers,

the flight crews, the air defenders,

the base security, those maintainers

who we walked up at Sunset with the chill

and the air on the flight line.

May God watch over all of them each day and each night

may His Almighty and eternal arms

of providence stretch over them and protect them

and bring them peace.

In the name of Jesus Christ and amen.

I mean, there you go.

That's basically the way they're selling the war as a vibe.

I'm a Christian.

I pray for our country.

I pray for the safety of our troops abroad.

Like I have no problem with that,

but I do have a bit of a problem with the secretary.

I mean, with the fact that they are the ones

who put these people in this war.

I mean, like, you know, we're achieving military successes,

but they're the ones who pulled the trigger

on this conflict that seems to have no easy exit

or no good exit.

And it's just, you just have to kind of,

I mean, what do you even say?

Do you have anything to say?

No, that was well said.

I don't know.

It's really grim.

It's really grim.

I don't know.

Should we do a couple of minutes?

We were going to do a whole bit on the Midwest

and politics and get into the crunchy.

I wrote for more.

We haven't even talked for a second about what I wrote

about in morning shots this morning,

which is this guy who's running for governor in Iowa

as a Democrat, Rob Sand.

He's the state auditor right now.

And he's a, you know, Democrat see him as maybe this guy

who can sort of pick the lock of Iowa,

even though it's kind of a red state now,

win the governorship there

on sort of this populist accountability platform.

I don't know.

Should we do that bill?

Do you want to do five minutes on Iowa and Kansas

or should we jump straight to the, straight to the,

the, you know, Chaser here?

Maybe go to the Chaser.

People should read Andrew's excellent piece

on this Democratic government candidate.

And Iowa, I think it's a similar Democratic Senate candidate

in Kansas who also has a real chance.

I just want to say my 20 seconds would be that I think

a lot of states are in play this fall

as the wave gets bigger.

And I think especially those Midwestern states

where farmers have paid, the farm economies

paid a huge price for tariffs.

And now compounded, of course,

by the fertilizer and other issues caused by the war.

So, but I think that's, that was an interesting piece.

People should read it.

But let's go to, I know you're, yeah.

And you love, you love the Trump,

the Trump presidential library.

I know you're moved by the architect.

Yeah, I, the last thing I'll say about Rob Sand

is that I did a video interview for the Bullwork with him

in October and November, I think, of last year.

So if you, if you're interested in hearing more about him

or seeing what he's up to, you can go watch that,

just, you know, Rob Sand, like the stuff that's on the seashore

and drag her to the Bullwork, type it in YouTube.

When you're done here, don't leave yet,

because we do have one more thing.

And this is just, you know, this is just empty calories,

but we got, we got a, we got a,

why not, why not roll around in the grotescaries

of it all a little bit more?

Eric Trump has been a little bit out of the limelight recently.

He's off, he's running the president's crypto businesses.

He's, he's, you know, lining the Trump family's pockets

with, with, with, you know, petro, petrobearans, you know,

crypto money, I'm curious, I'm a little curious

what's been going on with all of that as, you know,

we have suddenly choked off the, the, the sort of aorta

going to the UAE and cutter in all of these countries.

But anyway, Eric Trump has also, in addition

to all of those sorts of things, apparently,

been, been working on Donald Trump's presidential library

behind the scenes, and he tweeted out this sort of sizzle reel

of, of the Donald, Donald J, Trump presidential library

and museum, which apparently is going up in Miami,

like downtown Miami, according to, according to Eric.

So let's just, let's just, let's see what they've been up to.

Let's just play a little bit of the video.

Well, we'll, we'll, we'll see what we think.

Nice little gold statue of Trump up on the stage.

I see a lot of artists now and we're going to split the

picture.

Isn't that nice?

What do you think, Bill?

What do you make of the sizzle reel?

It'll be good when he's not in the real-level officer.

es, creo, si en vez de que está sitting en la oferta de la oferta de la oferta, en la trumpa de

terror en Miami, es que se va a hacer, creo que es que se va a hacer su nombre, la

otra cosa, es, yo creo que es, estos présidentes de librares han sido un poco

worse, no sé, sobre los años, en términos de la warra, un poco más vulgar,

boasting, de las primeras fases, que realmente eran libres, yo creo que eso es,

yo creo que se va a ir a las primeras de las primeras de las primeras de las primeras,

ha sido un poco limpio, es como, yo creo que se va a agregar, ¿qué papás que

Looking for you know.

I mean, they always had a little more of that.

But Trump, of course, is taking it to a new level

of boastfulness and vulgarity.

Yeah, I don't think I've ever been

to anybody's presidential library.

So I kind of wanted to ask you,

this strangeness of the sort of replica rooms and things,

like that was obviously the oval office,

but then, also apparently, they're recreating

Trump's whole new ballroom like behind plate glass

como, ¿por qué es?

Obviamente, él machta ese unilado que es

una de los grandes contributions

a la familia de la NATO.

Así que creo que estoy muy sorprendida

en lauminada por ese heutto que ha podido haberte

en pleno sitio, pero creo que es

No, no, no, no.

No, es que es algo de Washington,

es que es un gran barrio.

Obviamente.

Eso es por que no.

Pero ya sé, generalmente,

en este play, muy bien.

Así que, Rappla, porque,

creo que era el primer,

el primer, el nuevo.

Yo no puedo recordar, pero,

de verdad,

creo que se ha cambiado un poco de la verdad.

Pero Trump siempre ha cambiado

en una vez.

Y también, estos cosas,

Usually, los gente se espera

cuando se les acerva al gobierno

y luego se le confide en la locación.

Es por eso, te takes so long,

Obama le ha hablado al gobierno en 2017.

Y no se le apregó en un año

pero más tarde,

9 años later.

So they sort of have the decency to focus on being president but someone that was that

well, we had this in Warnichach, yesterday you found that tweet.

Um, I don't remember the name of the person who was tweet it was, but very that Trump

is clearly, you know, when he was showing on the plane, I guess he was showing all the

reporters, quite detailed accounts of the ballroom right in the, the, the curcumin Columns

and this and that as clear he's been focused much more on the details, if he's stupid

不能able y fácil por elums,

pero con la verdad,

es cómo se trata el que lo funcionan en el Buro.

¿Tú es el Buro que depende de That Fox News?

El Buro tiene que menjar.

Tienes que 거야.

¿Puedes verlo un poco?

¡Una, unaесть mejor!

No, no, no es Esamble.

¿Quién que no ha estado en un destino?

Hay una conferencia de Novo a la출.

Yo amamos un pendingo de Novo a lauer.

Ha sido un desplegado a la noche,

pero el único ruido en el mundo al lugar que he estado...

Dejo que es una balde que esta muy frágil por favor.

¡Se robusta!

¡Aura, cariño!

¡Araura, cariño 11.

I get you get you the old office. I've never tried. I've never, I've never asked.

I should say, you should call up and just say, look, I've never been there.

And I'd really like to spend some time with the president there.

And they'll let you in, you know, right? All right. Well, that would be really nice of them.

I mean, my, my main takeaway of the whole thing is it's, I mean, it's just a Trump building, right?

It's like the Trump tower. Yeah. Miami, but it's, you know, it's the same guy.

Same as he ever was, right? He's, he's the guy who, who puts his name really big on big buildings.

He's put his name really big on the White House.

He's put his name really big on the United States of America.

And, and he is, I guess, correct. I mean, it's, it, it looks like a pretty good,

it looks like a pretty good representation of what this presidency has been, has been all about in that sense.

You know, you get Trump, Trump way up on the top in giant letters and then about halfway down,

much smaller, you get a little American flag, just to remind everybody that's what it is.

So I don't know, those are, those are my thoughts.

I hope you guys all liked the, the presidential library tour, sizzle reels, much as we did.

I, I, I, I don't know where exactly how they're going to fit that ballroom in the skyscraper,

but, you know, whatever, we'll figure that out. All, all of that is to be determined.

I guess we can leave it there. I should have said this halfway through, and I never did,

but, but I'm Andrew Rager. I said it at the top. I'm Andrew Rager,

a White House correspondent for the Bullwork, Bill Crystal, editor at large of the Bullwork.

We are at the Morning Shots newsletter and, and thanks to you all out there who are watching.

Thanks for, thanks for subscribing to our YouTube feed. If you don't do that yet,

hope you will now, hope you will head over to the Bullwork.com and sign up for our Morning Shots newsletter

in your inbox every Monday through Friday at or around 9 to 9 30-ish AM, depending on how fast

really I personally have, have gone. I tend to be the bottleneck. But, but thanks, thanks, Bill,

for coming on. Thanks everybody for watching. We'll, we'll see you next week and we'll, we'll,

how I'm sure a lot more really pleasant things to say about the straight-of-form moves

and America in general. So thanks for watching and we'll see you all next time.