Trump’s Demand for Hormuz Support Faces Resistance

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Business App.

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Shabbana Versace is with Bloomberg Television, all of our media worldwide, to say that she

is someone doing her eyes is doing daybreak Middle East.

She is definitive on her Middle East and is Robert D. Kaplan talks about from Morocco

to Persia.

We are honored that she would join us this morning from her Dubai.

Shabbana I think the war coverage, particularly over the weekend, is almost road, almost cursory

in the United States.

Let us start with the airports.

You have an airport in Dubai by the canal.

You have another airport towards Abu Dhabi being built out as well.

The distance maybe it's a 40-50 minute drive to the two.

What is the state of tension at the Dubai airports this morning?

Hi, Tombo.

Good morning.

Good to be on your show.

Let me just run you through what happened specifically with Dubai International Airport

DXB.

That is the main one that's operational right now.

It was hit in the early hours of the morning.

I feel depot, I exported into flames.

Later on the Dubai media office came out to say that it caused limited damage and no injuries.

For a while the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority moved to suspend flights temporarily.

They have resumed.

A lot of them have resumed.

Many flights were cancelled.

The state-owned airline Emirates has resumed travel now.

I think what you're referring to is the fact that some of those flights were redirected

to a new airport that's being built, as you say, around 45 minutes away, Dubai, Maktum.

Again, this is just part and parcel of the bigger picture here, which is that Iran continues

to strike not necessarily U.S. assets in the region, but key transportation on the

District's hubs.

What is the tension in Dubai?

I think within the media coverage in America, we don't know the tension in Kuwait.

We don't know the tension in Qatar across the United Arab Emirates.

What is the tension in Dubai or is it just a random missile that may come in?

Let me tell you that UAE alone have received two-thirds of the projectiles that Iran have

fired over, so more than any other Gulf nation.

They have successfully intercepted around 1,600 drones, around 300 missiles.

The interception rate is anything between 92 percent to 94 percent, depending on whether

you're talking about drones or missiles.

The interception rate is very high, but that's not to say that some degree or interceptions

of debris are causing a damage to some sky-rise buildings, as you may have seen, reports

of that.

But increasingly, I would say what has happened in the last 24 to 48 hours is Iran seemed

to be targeting a lot more strategic assets in the region that aren't necessarily linked

to U.S. bases or U.S. control centers.

This, I think, is perhaps marks a new chapter in this war, because they have attempted

to strike at the Fujera port a couple of times over the course of this weekend a key strategic

port not on the straits.

I should also remind viewers, this is a port that is on the Gulf of Iran, a key outlet

to get UAE oil out of the region.

The fact that they keep going after it suggests that not only is Iran focusing on that one

choke point around the Strait of Hormuz, but they're also beginning to target some of

the key ports around the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Iran as well.

Jumana, the Strait of Hormuz is clearly one of the areas of focus here.

President Trump has asked other nations to help secure the passage through the Strait

of Hormuz.

What do we know about any responses from any of our allies, I guess?

That's right.

So that was the main news overnight.

He's calling on what he says around seven nations to join in on this coalition to help

secure the safe passage of vessels through the straits, including the likes of UK and

France, obviously key NATO allies in an FD interview he hinted that there would be diplomatic

repercussions if the NATO allies did not join in on these efforts.

He's also suggested that South Korea, Japan, join in, we've heard from the Japanese Minister

of Defense overnight.

He said that the threshold for them to get involved is super high.

And the big one is China, of course, the lion's share of the oil that's transported

through the strait ends up in China's hands from an economic perspective.

Of course, they have a prerogative to ensure the safe passage of vessels, but they so

far have not put out any official commentary suggesting that they're willing to sign up

to this.

Jumana, one final question here and to your busy afternoon and the evening in Dubai.

Are the Arab nations together in an ancient view against Persia, or is it every tribe

for themselves?

Well, let me just point you to a call that took place between the Saudi from France,

his Royal Highness, MBS, with the president of the UEE, MBSED.

And for anyone who's been following the news in the region, even before this war erupted,

there had started to be some more regional friction between the UAE and Saudi Arabia

over their differing objectives around the war in Yemen, also in Sudan as well.

What we've seen since the inception of this war is a repression of sorts.

And what you are getting are these united communicates from GCC foreign ministers, more and

more of these calls taking place, all of them at condemning the attacks, the Iranian

attacks.

And in fact, going so far as calling them terrorist attacks and the territory, also reiterating

the right to self-defense.

But none of them, and I should say, have gone so far as to suggest that they would get

militarily involved in this war.

For the time being, they are just emphasizing their right to self-preservation and to self-defense.

And then, of course, later on down the track, they're going to have to do maybe a little

bit of soul-searching about the types of strategic alliances that they have.

A terrific brief.

Thank you so much.

I appreciate that.

Of course, driving all of our Middle East coverage of Bloomberg horizon out of Dubai.

Stay with us more from Bloomberg's surveillance coming up after this.

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In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessons after 4 p.m. until the next morning.

But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night.

Learn more at cmegroop.com slash equity futures.

So there's a lot of noise about AI, but times too tight for more promises.

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We agree with true excellence in hydrocarbons out of LSE operational research.

Julian Lee is definitive with Bloomberg News on oil.

What's the story Julian right now in oil that's not visible?

I think what's not visible at the moment is exports out of the Persian Gulf.

What we're seeing is a near total closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Yes, there have been a couple of small Indian oil tankers going through over the weekend.

They were likely carrying liquefied petroleum gases, which are popular as a cooking fuel

in India.

One thing I think that's interesting about those vessels is that they took a much more

northerly passage through Hormuz than is usual, much closer to the Iranian coast outside

of the normal shipping lanes.

They could mean a number of things.

It could mean that those shipping lanes have been mined as the Iranians would like us to

believe.

It could simply mean that the Iranians want to keep a better eye on what's going through

Hormuz.

Most of the rest of what's gone through is either Iranian owned or linked to China, but

that the movements of Hormuz are very, very small.

Paint the window in Singapore at the Strait of Malaka of the transformation of oil to

naphtha, naphtha to ethylene, and ethylene into all the plastics and petrochemicals that

are out there.

That sequence of what we do with oil is that shattered.

As well?

I think it's certainly coming under strain.

This is perhaps the other side of the oil market that we don't appreciate quite so much.

We're very used to crude oil going into refineries being turned into gasoline and diesel fuel

and jet fuel and heating oil.

The other side of that, and the side where all the longer term growth is in feedstocks

for plastics, but that is perhaps less the sort of base load coming out of the Middle

East.

A lot of that is heavier crude.

That tends to go into refineries for processing into fuels, but at some point this is going

to pinch perhaps.

The big problem, I think, at the moment is just that the amount of oil that has been

prevented from coming out of the Persian Gulf is bigger than the amount that can be diverted

elsewhere by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and to some extent Iraq.

Julianly, please stay with us right now.

We've got to get to the market open.

We're going to come back with Dr. Lee in London, of course, expert on all that we see here

in hydrocarbons.

And we do that with oil under 102, barely 101.93, generally signaling what we see in the

equity markets with futures up 61, the VIX under 25 earlier, a better take on a Monday

up morning with a market opening, Alexis Kustoffius.

Thanks so much, Tom, and we had a nice rally for stock futures heading into this Monday

morning opening bell, and it looks like it's a dipping over into regular trading.

S&P 500, up now about 60 points at 66.91, Dow Jones industrial average right out of the

gate up 377 points, level it 46,954, NASDAQ composite, climbing 228 points now, 223.29,

the Russell 2000 coming along for the ride up now, 33 points.

We do have oil pulling back a bit, Brent is at 101.90, the barrel, WTI crude 94.71, the

barrel.

We got a precious metals mixed, a spot gold now at 50, 22, the ounce and Bitcoin at 73,916

dollars.

Early Movers shares of Nebius up 13 and a half percent after Facebook parent Meta said

it's going to pay up to $27 billion over the next five years for access to AI infrastructure

from the NeoCloud company.

That's your Bloomberg opening bell report, Tom and Paul.

Alexis, thank you so much.

Appreciate it right now.

We're on the world across this nation.

It is Bloomberg surveillance, Paul Sweeney with Julian Leigh at Queen Victoria Street.

Julian, just for argument's sake, let's assume they were ended today.

Where would Brent get back to its pre-war levels and over what time frame might that occur?

Well, fortunately, I'm not in the business of price forecasting any longer.

I gave that up 12 years ago when I came to Bloomberg.

So I can't give you a forecast.

If you look at the market fundamentals, if you get the flow through hormones normalized,

the market was relatively weak, there's nothing significant that has changed in the supply

demand dynamics other than the closure of hormones.

We haven't had significant damage to oil production installations in the Middle East or

in Iran, thankfully.

So the supply side in time would get back to where it was.

But I think that would take time.

It's not a matter of simply turning on a tap and everything's back to normal.

There's all sorts of logistics that have to be sorted out.

If we look at what's happening now, Saudi Arabia has said it will divert crude to the Red

Sea.

It has a pipeline that has the capacity to take 7 million barrels a day.

The CEO of Saudi Aramco said last Tuesday that they were ramping up to that capacity.

But that's a 750 mile pipeline.

Oil doesn't move very fast through pipelines.

I mean, perhaps not much faster than a decent runner can run.

So that means it could take anywhere from four to 10 days for an additional input into

that pipeline to turn up in increased volumes coming out at the other end.

So that's the sort of logistical disruption or the sort of timeframes that we're looking

at just to make that switch from East to West.

Putting the whole thing back together would perhaps take even longer.

Julian Lee, thank you so much.

In London writing for Bloomberg News.

Stay with us more from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern.

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live

on YouTube.

Trisha Scarlotta joins us to get out the calendar, Paul March, College admissions.

Oh, boy.

If you're not early decision or whatever, the other eight times of the decision are, Trisha

Scarlotta has the worst job at JP Morgan.

His Jamie Diamond ever called you up and said, how about that tuition I'm paying?

Jamie has not, but I've had other senior executives who have called me for some advice for

some advice.

Not Jamie.

Okay.

Jasmine Lee kills it in the Wall Street Journal this week and the four zillion East Coast

brats going to St. Andrews, they go out on the pier walk there with their red robes and

all that.

Give us an update on the insanity of the college process as you see it at JP Morgan.

The process is insanity and I love that you mentioned the international schools because

they are certainly more cost effective and as I mentioned earlier, I had a nephew that

went to St. Andrews and did tremendously well.

I wish I could tell you that I thought costs were coming down.

They are not coming down.

They historically have never come down.

They're up five to seven percent every year, even during COVID costs continued to go

up.

So I don't see that changing.

I think what we need to make sure we tell families is they need to start early and do

it as often as they can make those contributions.

Look, the reality is, is we're getting less international students coming to the US, right?

Those were the people paying the full vote because they didn't get eight.

We also just have less kids.

So that means less tuition being paid.

These schools have created institutions that are so expensive because they have so many

programs.

When we went to college, there weren't 200, 300 programs.

They have to pay for that.

They've got to generate revenue.

So the costs are not going to come down and unfortunately, there's just not enough free

money to go around.

And having sat on a university board, I'll tell you right now, cut your cost by 50 percent,

start there, then come talk to your students and the families, but they won't do that.

Talk to us about $5.29 plans.

What are they?

How do they help parents?

Very, very simple.

The best thing about a $5.29 account is the fact that you can actually save on taxes.

So you're going to take your after-tax dollars, make a contribution into a $5.29 plan and

that's going to grow tax deferred over the lifetime of the account until you start making

those withdrawals and there are tons of qualified withdrawals that you can make.

And as long as it's qualified, there are no taxes to be had.

100 percent of your people use a $5.29.

Not enough.

So about 40 percent now.

So if you look at it, about 50 percent of Americans don't even know what a $5.29 account

is.

Can I just interject, please?

Wonderful.

Here's the reward.

What are you?

At least some a day.

Alexis, you just bought in and you don't ask the politeness is out here.

Ladies and gentlemen, Alexis, you know the rules.

I love the fact that you can roll over a $5.29.

Like let's say since my kids don't use all the money in there, which fat chance, I

can send it to my grandkids.

Absolutely.

Look, everybody worries they're going to overfund these accounts.

Trust me.

You are not going to overfund.

We just all talked about it.

You're not overfunding.

The average account size is somewhere in the $40,000 to $50,000 range.

Families are not over saving.

But yes, you can change beneficiaries.

There's so much flexibility in these accounts and we just did a survey on LinkedIn.

What's your biggest reason why you're not opening a $5.29 account?

And the biggest reason was because we don't think it's flexible.

You've got tons of flexibility.

Now you are.

So if you have too much money, you can roll over to a Roth IRA up to $35,000.

There's so much flexibility in terms of the withdrawals.

It's not just college anymore.

It's K through 12.

It's credentialing.

It's tutoring.

It continuously expands.

Yes.

Can you use 5.29 for SAT prep?

Yep.

You can.

There you go.

Think about all the money we spent as parents on SAT prep.

Exactly.

Use aid.

A lot of schools offer a lot of aid if you know where to look for it.

You bet.

Talk to us about how that factors into the equation.

Listen, I adore the families that have the conversation and say we can't pay $90,000 a year.

There are tons of state institutions that are wonderful that you could pay in state tuition.

There are also things called a safety, a safety school.

So if you're somebody who, because of your income level, which is probably somewhere

around 200 plus, you're not really going to get anything.

It's probably a little bit lower than that.

The key is to be applying to safety.

Because that school will give you money off the top because you're still more attractive

than somebody getting financial aid.

Okay.

Just as an aside, she mentioned full boat.

I saw full boat play at the cave in Durham.

He's a great band.

The fact of the matter is there's all this media blather about schools giving up tons

of scholarships.

Anybody who makes over 14,000 a year gets to go in all the way.

What I hear from our listeners and viewers is it's a travesty.

We're all paying full tuition room and board.

What percentage of people that in your research are paying full boat?

About 40% 40 to 50% yeah.

What's the good percentage?

Now that number is going to come down again because our international students are going

to come down.

International students coming just because of the whole thing with people coming into

the country.

They just don't feel comfortable coming.

That is correct.

When does this end?

I mean, I mentioned today at some point Marboral cigarettes became too expensive.

I don't know.

Are we at a point where this just becomes too expensive?

I don't know.

I mean, I have not seen it.

If we look at history, history has not shown it at all.

And we're looking at now, so 18 years from now, you want to send three kids to college.

And it's, you know, you're looking at millions.

If you ever had two pages in Jamie Dimons annual report letter, you deserve that.

Oh, thank you.

I appreciate that.

You know, work on that.

It's a crisis.

It for sure is a crisis.

It is the family's biggest expense.

Yeah, but then the Vatican, I mean, you can get two pages in or two paragraphs in to

his work.

I appreciate that.

Thank you.

This has been great.

Don't be a stranger.

Trisha Scarlotta here, full boat for Alexis Christopher and everybody else, that's what

she's going to wrangle.

Kind of education savings, a JP Morgan asset management.

Stay with us more from Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

So there's a lot of noise about AI, but times too tight for more promises.

So let's talk about results.

At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need.

Now, a global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving

94% of common questions.

Not noise.

Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off.

Deep in the work that moves the business.

Let's create smart to business.

IBM.

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Everyone has been there.

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It's a mess.

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m.

You sure?

We're going to work so hard for you.

We're going to play an Android Auto with the Bloomberg.

Or watch us live on YouTube.

Giving us a lighter touch.

Missed the staffer.

What do you have this for?

I went digging and I found this one in the Wall Street Journal that says when it comes

to income tax, red and blue states, they're growing further apart.

So that?

Yeah, I don't think this is a little cutesy, cutesy charts.

Yeah, it was actually quite, there's a lovely visual with this.

So Republican led states are looking to entice new residents with lower taxes.

Democratic led states are looking to hire taxes on top earners because they need to plug

those budget gaps and also to fund social services.

So in just the past five years, okay, 23 states have lowered their top income tax rates.

Mississippi and Oklahoma looking to eliminate it all together.

And then of course here in New York City, we've also got Washington State looking to raise

income taxes on high income households.

And here's another, I mean, I just looked at this stat.

I think this says it all.

According to the tax foundation, the middle ground is quickly disappearing 20 years ago.

15 states had top income tax rates on wage income below 5% and just one exceeded 10%

today.

More than half of the states have gone below 5%.

Over the weekend, the guy I can't pronounce who runs Uber, Dara, I just harm Dara.

Yeah, I can't, I gave up, okay, you know, Mark Rumpkin yelled at me, uh, Dara's moving,

he's moving to California, some, that's right.

Another executive, you just see it, they're fleeing from Seattle, from California.

And they're actually thinking New York is a haven.

I mean, that's telling you something.

I guess New York, I hate it.

I think that would be surprised to people at Bloomberg 1130.

Yeah.

Well, because I think relative to where income tax can go when the states of Seattle, you

have to say when you were gone, we talked to a gentleman from Seattle, and he said it's

tangible.

I mean, if you take the state taxes down, that, that, that's great.

But how do you plug that hole?

So if you're in Mississippi, where does, I guess you just lose that revenue and there's less

money for schools and social services and stuff like that?

I don't know.

I don't know how they've thought it out.

He said it has all different types of things that can tax you.

It's definitely on the ballot in the midterm elections.

That's for sure.

Yep.

All right.

Do you have another one?

I, of course, I do.

Um, this is from the New York Times.

Some Olympic officials want to have the winter games played in fixed cities, so no more,

you know, I mean, it's not, this is just a proposal right now.

But fewer cities are actually bidding for the Olympics, um, because they can't accommodate

every event.

You just look at the Milan games.

So we have them in Cortina as well.

It was sprawled out spanning 5, 8,500 square miles.

It did work though.

Yeah.

But, you know, a lot of the, they spend so much on the infrastructure and then they sit,

you know, weeds grow in between like the ski slide, you know, years later or so.

It's also an issue about the snow, not every place that has historically hosted winter

Olympics.

I feel like they can do it reliably with this lack of snow.

So like an aspect with snow, do they look at it as one off year or is it, is one off?

It was a one off year that so they say and, you know, but we were up there at 12, 13,000

feet.

Snow was great.

I don't know.

One more.

What are you?

All right.

Oh, this one made me so happy.

Tulips.

Have you seen tulips?

I saw in Park Avenue.

I can see they want to come up.

Yeah.

And they're so confused that it's not warmer yet.

But this year for the first time ever on the National Mall in D.C., this one's from the

Washington Post, people were able to come out.

They got free tickets over 12,000 people to come and pick 10 tulips and make a little

bouquet for themselves.

This is sort of reminiscent of what, like you see happening in Amsterdam and Berlin because

they have big tulip celebrations.

This is the first one on the National Mall in D.C. and it was a big hit apparently.

All right.

Those free tickets went like that, you know, what's the Washington Mall?

That's the Cherry Blossoms.

Yes, the Cherry Blossoms.

So now they have another thing.

Okay.

Well, the Cherry Blossoms are happening.

They're going to be happening.

That haven't happened yet.

Okay.

Can I add a twirlize?

Please.

I love the tulip bulbs on Park Avenue.

Yeah.

And what I love about Park Avenue is just building up the charity there, the government

services except Park Avenue has become third avenue because they ruined third avenue.

In the last six months, almost some of the traffic on third avenue, Park Avenue for a

whole bunch of blocks now every day is bumper to bumper, you know, but you know, at least

you still don't have the stores on Park, right?

They're free of like the commerce in the way that third avenue is.

It used to be, you know, that's the way it was.

Well, Lexus Christophers, thank you.

You're welcome.

So much.

The newspapers.

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