Trump’s Red State Sabotage

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1:23Get them done! Okay, just to reset here, Americans are presently struggling to afford gas and groceries, so President Trump is keeping gas prices high and making the cost of goods even more expensive. It is a terrible strategy for people across the country, but it is particularly bad for the very same people that Republicans are counting on to vote for them in November. Red State America, and in particular, farmers. The war in Iran and now the battlefront with Canada have driven up the cost of fuel, machinery, and fertilizer, which are all things that are essential to this industry. Here's rancher John Boyd, Jr., talking to CNN last week.

2:24This is not what Americans farm as need right now, when we are struggling with the press and as terrorists, we're struggling with the high input costs from fuel and diesel and fertilizer from the war in Iran, so it's a rippling fact. On top of this, the federal farm bill, which has been essential for folks working in agriculture, is stuck in Congress, and Republicans have tied emergency farm aid to more funding for the war in Iran, which is a big part of the reason farmers are in trouble in the very first place. In the meantime, Trump's tariffs are turning things from bad to worse, and especially so in states that do a lot of business with Canada, places like Michigan, and Maine, and Iowa, places where there are very important Senate races in just about two months. Here's Maine Senator Susan Collins in an interview with C-SPAN last week. So the implications are severe. Canada's not China. Canada is our best friend and ally, and our biggest trading partner.

3:30I know firsthand just how devastating these tariffs will be. Susan Collins is not alone. Our colleague, Republican Senator Tom Tillis, told Politico last week, we've got 71 days, and right now we don't have a positive message to tell farm country. Senator Kevin Kramer of North Dakota, also a Republican, said this, he's in serious trouble in farm country, he being Trump, and Trump is us. I'm not very optimistic. Whether they are saying it behind closed doors or actually out loud, Republicans believe that Trump is screwing the GOP and its supporters at exactly the wrong time. Now with all this anxiety over the party's prospects and the coming election, you might think that Trump would finally start spending some of the roughly $400 million in superpack sitting on, but so far, nada. Which begs the question, could one man be this spectacularly out of touch with reality?

4:32Or is Donald Trump actually just sabotaging his own party? I'm Alex Wagner and this week on Runaway Country, forget purple state America, what does it mean for the midterms if Republicans start losing red state voters? Is Trump's base in danger of just staying home this November? I'll be talking to the wonderful Brian Boydler, who is the author of the off message substack and co-host of politics.fm about Trump's strategy for lack thereof in America's heartland. But first, we are going to the Hawkeye State to talk to a farmer about Trump's numerous battles and what they mean for him and his community. Josh Lemansky is a fifth-generation farmer and the author of the Corn Belt newsletter on substack. He sat down with me to talk about his hopes and dreams for everything to somehow get back to normal. Here's our conversation. Welcome to Runaway Country, Josh. I will say we did meet in a previous, what feels like lifetime ago in 2024, but it is

5:32great to have you back in conversation on the podcast this time. And I am real eager to hear how it's going in farm country. I know that for people who don't know your bio, you're a fifth-generation farmer, I believe, in Iowa. First generation on the farm, not from Iowa that go the fifth generation comes back from my family that's across the border in Minnesota. Okay, fair enough. I have to. It's a very, it's a nuance. It's new. No, no, the Wagner's the Wagner's are from the Hawkeye State, so we need to be clear about who's from where? There you go. I'm first generation I, when if anybody wants to know. Okay, well congrats on making the right choice. Exactly. Born and raised. You grow corn and soybeans. You're also farm realtor. You have an amazing substack. What is the mood in farm country right now? You guys are dealing with a lot. A lot of things are going on, Alex. Believe it or not, price to corn just hit a three-year high here recently. So there is a small civil line on the horizon after about three years of a recession that

6:32we've been in, having to deal with all sorts of things from weather to uncertainty and policy, of course, trade. Yeah. And put prices being through the rough as well. It's a really important point I want to make, being squeezed on that end of things as well. A very trying time for all of us in the ag economy. There's so many other external factors which I want to talk to you about that making life expensive for everybody. Amen. That it is creating attention where none previously existed. Right. So talk to me about how the great battle against Canada has affected farmers and their way of life in terms of diesel fuel that powers farm equipment, farm supplies. There's a looming dairy and steel tariffs coming down the pike. What does that look like for you guys? Yeah. Everything of Canada is one of our strongest trading partners and allies for a long, long time. I know for the steel and aluminum, and of course, you have that as an equipment, of course,

7:34and then the price of farm equipment being more expensive because of that. One of our main fertilizers, Alex, is podash. And we get a lot of that from Canada. It seems like that's been under an exemption every time there's been a trade spat. But there's a fertilizer shortage from the war with Iran. Is there no? Well, it's okay. That's exactly right. A lot of our fertilizer that has to pass through the street of our removes right now. Of a sudden, the instability that that creates and like I said, on the input side of things. Now, the price of commodities have kind of come up here the last month or so. But again, we're having our inputs that are squeezing us. Yes. Absolutely. Right. You have a fertilizer cost, your seed cost, everything just keeps pushing up and up on that. You know, there's geopolitical reasons for that. But there's also concentration within agriculture, within fertilizer, within other parts of the industry that lack of competition creates the environment for input prices that are probably higher than they need to be. And then of course, what that does to us on our bottom lines.

8:35And of course, what we're trying to do on the operation in general, we're always trying to improve the operation, whether it be farm improvements, amongst other things. And of course, when you don't have extra dollars to do that, well, then what does that mean for your farming operation? What does that mean for the long term viability of the farming operation? And then how does that reverberate through your rural community because of those dollars not being used? Yeah. Right. So it's a whole cycle. Zanico system. Does it feel like farm again? Is that an overstatement? You know, farm again, if for those of us in the rural countries, you know, our, our Bibles may be better than most, I think the, that's like, seems like the end of things, right? And I don't necessarily think it's necessarily the end of things. I don't love that term for a lot of reasons, but it's definitely putting a squeeze on a lot of producers and, and then of course, when it ends up happening is more consolidation, not only just with an agriculture farm, but a business. Right. Farm's got a business. So then, you know, somebody's going to farm that land. So then all of a sudden, just everybody gets bigger and bigger and bigger and you have less and less people on the countryside.

9:36And then of course, that makes it difficult for you to have your, you know, your schools and your churches and those kind of things to stay viable. Policy, great plays a big role in this, right? It's some of these are policy choices that are making these things happen. Well, right. I mean, a war with Canada was not anything anyone had on their bingo card. And I would imagine that it's greatly frustrating to see this stuff unfold in context with everything else. You're talking about the war with Iran. I mentioned diesel prices. That's, that's a result of the war with Iran, not the battle with Canada. But like, you have a cascade. First of all, you guys are on the front lines of weather. You are, I've interviewed a lot of farmers, right? You're a hostage to the elements in a way that few other major, you know, industries are. And so there's a sort of reserve that I noticed farmers have, you know, your center of gravity is lower and you're able to weather things pardon the metaphor, I think with a stiff up. Pun intended, pun intended. Pun actually intended. You guys have stiff or upper upper lips. And yet these just seem like for lack of a better term own goals that we're shooting against

10:37ourselves when we do things. And I say, we, but I got to ask like, you know, the president of the United States is the person that has made a lot of these decisions. Is there frustration directed at him and what he's doing right now? Yeah, the administration certainly has made the things I've been preaching over the last of the seems a number of years. It's just, I'm some stability and return to normalcy, right? It's difficult enough having to deal with mother nature, right? I joke that I have seven weather apps on my phone, which is not a joke because I have seven. I want to know what they are when we finish recording. I'll give you the best ones, agweather.com, Eric Stingress, there's a plug for you, buddy. So like we have to deal with all these different things weather wise. And then we've had markets that have been established from previous generations, you know, are that market share to China that was established or all those difficult negotiations and trade groups and farm organizations that led those efforts. And all of a sudden that was tore up, you know, how many years ago and we've never regained that market share.

11:37Now China has come back and recently and has started to buy my soybeans again, but not to the level that they once did. And then of course you think of the trades that we're having with Canada, you know, there are biggest buyer of ethanol. So you're having to deal with mother nature and then you're having to deal with these policy decisions and mother nature and father Trump. I guess that's one way of putting it down. But what does it mean, Josh? Like are people mad? I would put it this way that there's frustration and it's not necessarily people are coming out and saying it is such. But definitely there's frustration. I mean, you're talking $5.50 diesel prices. I mean, I don't know if everybody necessarily appreciates that. That affects everybody in the United States. Of course. And I think of us just from our operation in general, yeah, that's dollars right off the top because we've got to get our grain to market and the cost of transportation. But it's right into the bottom line right out of the gate. I mean, the Pandora's box of opening what was what happened over in the Middle East,

12:40that is not something that's going to be repaired right away. And the reverberations that that's going to have for inflated prices. I mean, you're already hearing the Federal Reserve talking about raising interest rates to try to get their inflation target to 2% and they can't do it. You think of higher interest rates? Not only when it comes to consumers when you're trying to buy home or credit cards, but those of us on the farm when it comes to your line of credit. That's another thing. Your interest expats to be able to put a crop in the ground. Now that's all the sudden goes up again. Again, another pressure that is in a way a self-inflicted wound. So, I mean, I guess my question is you're using the term frustration. I'm asking about anger. We'll meet in the middle somewhere. The feelings are not positive. Do you feel like farmers and I would just say as you point out, very importantly, it's not just farmers. It's the entire community around farms. It's the churches and schools. The community is affected when farms and agricultural industries are affected. It's not just the people putting plants in the ground and growing our food. It's the people around them. Do people look at the coming election as a way to make their frustration heard?

13:45I mean, what can you tell me about the level of conversation around the midterm elections and the frustrations that people are feeling right now? It's been interesting to live in a fairly red part of the state of Iowa at the moment. And it's interesting to hear just conversations on the economy. I mean, I've talked to some individuals that go, oh, God, the economy looks really good on paper, but it doesn't feel very good. Yeah. Everybody just feels under pressure, right? Everything's expensive. Yeah. Everything's expensive. I was just talking to somebody the other day. They're like, well, I really like to take my kids to Disney World, but like this is, it's going to be a thousand dollar deal for us. And it's like that's, that's just not affordable. It's expensive to mail something to the post office. It's expensive debt. Yeah. It's not necessarily meant to be a joke, but in a way, it's like it's expensive to be alive, right? And if you, especially if you've got kids and you're like, how do people make it? There's sometimes you just crunch the numbers and you're like, I don't know how this is going down on all this. Yeah. Are people going to take that out of the ballot box? Are people going to say like, I need a chain?

14:46Like, is your sense that people see the, the elections as a lever to deal with their frustrations? Or is there a sense that some people are going to stay home? Because they're just like, this is all so messed up. Like I don't want to part of what are the Democrats are offering me? They're all socialists or whatever. Well, I don't know what the narrative is in red state America, but also Trump and his party haven't helped me. So like, I'm out. I think it's quite nuanced. I will say this much. I think that unfortunately, the country is in such a divided place where it's like people are just in their camps. And it's even though they're seeing things, you know, it's more expensive at the grocery store. You know, those kind of things. It's going to be something that's going to drive them to either change the party they're voting for or to stay. I think that maybe is the X factor is like, I'm not going to vote. Right. I think that could be the X, I think that could be the X factor in 26. I'm just, that's just from what other people I talk to and then, then of course, the industry, I mean, that's just maybe where people are at, right? Stay at home.

15:46God, that's the possibility. Possibly. I don't, I could be 100% wrong with what I'm saying. Well, you're on the ground. You're talking to people and it's really important to understand the like, first of all, the difficulty of life. People are saying, how do you do it? Like how do you survive? It is, Alex. It's expensive to live. Like, it's something we need to hear about because we talk about it in terms of affordability, but that sense of just, I don't even know if it's panic, but just like that it's not about the American dream. It's just American life is within, out of people, increasingly out of people's grasp is really profound. And that, you know, the reality is that many people may sit this one out. That's interesting in terms of dynamics across the country, right? Yeah. I will see that frustration. Definitely. I mean, I guess that I could be completely off base with that. But maybe you aren't. Yeah, I don't know. Just just, just to get me on my perspective, I guess, for whatever that is. No, it's so helpful, Josh. I'm sorry, I asked you to play political prognosticator, but we just are trying to get a sense of how the very real lived, the lived reality there dovetails with the political process

16:53that is upon us. So I am deeply appreciative of the perspective and, you know, it's like we got a lot of eyes on I.O.I. It's really interesting bell weather for what's happening in other parts of the country and may prove really pivotal, I guess, as we talk about the balance power in the legislative branch. But certainly be nice to see some balance back in Iowa. And we've been known to be a purple state. I think there's something to be said about good balance, right? We had Senator Harkin and Senator Grassley for a long time and it was, that was at least a decent balance and get back just in equilibrium. We'll see. All right, Joshua Mansky, fifth generation farmer, not all generations in Iowa needed. It's great to have you on the program. Please come back. Please keep us posted on what's happening in the Hawkeye state. Appreciate the time, Alex. Thank you. Thank you for the break putting this all into context with off messages, Brian Boydler. Runaway Country is brought to you by Miracle Made. Do you ever wake up sweaty, freezing or just plain uncomfortable?

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19:56That's 15% off oneskin.co with code Alex. So you purchase, they'll ask where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. Back on the show is the great Brian Boitler in a brand new podcasting room filled with a really interesting touch keys. Brian thinks for things we're doing this and thanks for getting the touch keys. If you're not watching on YouTube or subscribed, you should be because you're missing something. I moved my home office from one room to another in anticipation of being on this show and like ran to the antique store to buy various hands and a corn sorter and a cactus. You were like runaway country. Let me get a corn sorter stacked. Exactly. Well, it's so apropos because we are talking about farmers getting fucked over by Trump and red state Armageddon or really farmageddon as this being called. Brian, I will start there. We have a trade war with Canada, the great battle against Toronto or Ontario, whatever

21:02pick your city that is exploded tariffs on dairy and auto parts and steel. There is the war in Iran, which is exploded prices for diesel gas and fertilizer and machinery. Everything is incredibly expensive. Like I said, it's being dubbed farmageddon. Brian, what in the actual fuck? This seems ill advised even for someone as dumb as Donald Trump. Yeah, I mean, I don't want to pivot away from the prices thing and all the inputs going into why prices are going up. All the things Donald Trump is doing to make prices go up. But we did on Tuesday get a report from a whistleblower about how Donald Trump wants to throw like hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of male ballots in the trash. Most of which would go to democratic voters. I believe it is a third of all male and ballots could be discounted. Yeah. And so, you know, like you're, it is typical. I think what you're alluding to for like a governing party when they see things going

22:04sideways ahead of the election to try to write the ship of policy so that voters aren't mad so that they can, you know, at least stem their losses. But when the principle is like more interested in cheating on elections, as Trump has been in every election he's run in, then like the calculus changes. And so you see him essentially acting like he doesn't give a shit about the consequences of any of this stuff because he thinks he can just, you know, pull a rabbit out of the hat. I guess with Trump all reason and logic are usually out the window. But even on this, it's not like he has to go to war with Canada and Iran, right? He's choosing to do this because he's a petulant narcissist. And like his inability to control his worst impulses is so profound that he's sacrificing a potentially legitimate win in the midterms for it, right? I mean, because it's not like, it's not like he's just making that like an inconvenient political decisions here and saying I'll steal the election to keep power of the legislative

23:08branch. And dumbass like incredibly incoherent foreign policy and economic decisions just because they service his ego. I mean, that part is the crazy part to me. This isn't like a rock in a hard place typical like, oh, if you're going to reform this, you're going to have to do this. It's not going to be politically expeditious. It's just he's making bad decisions because he's having a tantrum and he's willing to sacrifice his party for it. Yes, if Trump had a more ethical and rational approach to elections, it might have overcome his impulsive desire to sort of lash out at whoever or meet out punishment when he feels like things aren't going his way. I mean, I think if you go back to before the before he started the war with Iran, it's not like Republicans were doing great in polls at the time. Like it, the smart money was still on Democrats to at least take the house. He's done since then has deteriorated his position and therefore Republicans in Congress's

24:10position. And I think you're right that particularly the trade war with Canada is a like an instance of his, you know, what's wrong with him, like his mental illness, like driving him to do something self-destructive rather than trying to at least retrench somewhat, right? Like if between when the Iran war started and now he's put the Senate in jeopardy, he might be able to save that by like trying to act normal for just a few months, but you write, he has a very hard time doing that because he's a malignant narcissist. Yeah. I am impressed, I guess I shouldn't be impressed by things that hurt Americans, but Canada has been incredibly strategic about these tariffs, right? That they are targeting, they do see the Senate map and they're like, we're going to, we're going to institute tariffs, we're going to put them into effect after Labor Day, which is a real fuck you to our American political system, right? Because Labor Day is the home stretch and we're going to put in place tariffs that are

25:11going to really adversely affect a couple key states, Michigan and Maine among them that do, I believe, 40, 39, 41% of their exports go to Canada. Iowa does $5 billion worth of business with Canada. These are all critical Senate races, Maine and Michigan in particular. I do wonder because these Canadian tariffs aren't going to kick in until September 8th, whether you think that there is a chance that Trump realizes the doom that he is setting his party on the path towards and we could be seeing Taco, Trump always chickens out, part 59. I wonder, I mean, you see, look like the Iranian government is different from the Canadian government is different from our government. Both strategic though. Right, but you know, what the Iranian government has clearly decided that absent some situation where Trump puts like waves the white flag of surrender and admits he lost the war, they're

26:12going to keep punishing him and us for him having done this in the first place. Mark Carney said something recently. He said, when the Americans stop doing memes, stop throwing shade and stop trying to be tough and start being serious about having those discussions, we can have those discussions. It's not constructive, but that's their democracy. And so it's not clear to me that like even if Trump came crawling back, pulled down the tariffs that he imposed on Canada, that Mark Carney would be willing to reciprocate until after the election. I'm not sure like a taco would be enough to get a trade deal done. Like I Trump could take the tariffs that he imposed off the table, but I don't know what Canada would do. It seems to me that Mark Carney wants to get Trump to stop acting like this in perpetuity.

27:15And so keeping the heat on through the election, like there's a real logic to it. Well, right. And kneecapping Trump wherever possible by ensuring that Democrats take over the legislative branch would be helpful to Canadians. I mean, you did at least have some curb on Trump's worst impulses and maybe Congress would get off its ass and do something. I think it's interesting. I mean, I think you may agree that it was a really good point, which is even if Trump chickens out in the end, the Canadians may say, fuck you, we don't do business like this anymore, which is actually the story of this era. We assume that like Trump leaves office or Trump turns tail and things can go back to normal, but we have so profoundly damaged our reputation as a country that the rest of the world is either saying like, fuck off until you change. We're not doing business with you. Or they're finding business partners elsewhere. I mean, the Canadians are doing business with the Chinese and the Koreans and other parts of Europe because they're like, you know what, you're right. Our relationship was too predicated on this back and forth between you and us. And we're opening up other our relationships, essentially. Yeah, it was in an accident that on Monday, I believe it was how Kim Jeffries was taking

28:19questions from the press corps and was asked essentially like, is there going to be a, like an agenda that you guys run on in the fall campaign? And, you know, he didn't, he didn't have like a, like a white paper prepared or whatever, but he said essentially like Democrats are united on ending the Iran war, ending the, the trade war and like repealing the main provisions of the OBBA. And he, you know, he said we're going to reclaim the terror of authority. Like that is something Mark Carney heard, right? He, he understands that like Trump, like forcing the American government to start acting more reasonable, runs through getting Republicans out of power. And like, you know, it's not that hard for Canada to target. Canadian interference. His election. It's a big. Like, Angela, the 2026 midterms, Canadian interference. Canada, if you're listening, you mentioned, you know, you mentioned that they're targeting

29:20the tariffs at, at, at Maine and, and Michigan. But like Trump picked the trade war with the big trading partner. We have it on Northern border where there's a bunch of people running for, for re-election to the Senate. So it's like, it's not like Mark Carney had to do something super devious or, or like, strained in order to target these at, at, at Republican candidates, right? It's just like almost like the nature of the geography. It's easy. More of my conversation with Brian in just a moment. But first, everyone, guys, my new book, The Steel, four right wing hardliners, one Republican presidency and the raid on America's court comes out September 15th. And you can pre-order it right now. If you want to hear more about the secret history behind the Supreme Court's steep, alert right word and the decades-long conservative plot to raid the bench, this book is for you. Also, I will be Chris Crossing the country this fall with book events in New York, with Melissa Murray at McNeil and Jackson Books on September 15th.

30:20Los Angeles, with John Loveett and Writers' block on September 17th. And San Francisco with Camao Bell at the Commonwealth Club on September 21st. Check online for tickets. Runaway country is brought to you by Honey Love. We all need a good bra. We all need a good bra. We need a supportive and comfortable bra, especially as we age, and we need a little bit more lift. Finding the right bra as you get older can be frustrating. What used to work just doesn't work anymore. You want that lift and you want shape and you want support, but without stiff wires digging into your back or bulky padding that makes you look like January Jones and Mad Men. That's exactly where Honey Love stands out. Air bras are designed to provide lift and structure using innovative bonding technology instead of uncomfortable underwire. The new crossover contour bra is a great example of that. It combines their best-selling wireless design with molded foam cups to help create a smooth natural shape, especially helpful for mature breasts that may want a little extra structure

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32:26like me. You can use them in an entryway or dare to dream. Put them in your kid's room. These are rugs that show up for real life without you having to hover over them. Visit fabled.com slash crooked and use code crooked 15 for 15% off your order. That's fabled.com slash crooked 15% off and a better way to bring things home. Well, let's talk about a little bit about the specific geography because I sort of wonder how you're thinking about the Senate map. We talk about Maine and Michigan. Susan Collins has been out there doing her version of guess I guess Susan Collins upset. Susan Collins concerned. Mike Rogers totally caught between a rock and a hard place. But like Iowa is interesting to me because we've been talking about the Senate map for Dems and how it sort of moves in their direction in a meaningful way. And people put Iowa I guess on the wish list, but the polling there, both on the gubernatorial level where you have Rob Sand, former Brown alum and former male model. I did not know this until I was today years old when I found out that Rob Sand used to

33:27be like a fashion model. And Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turrick, that polling looks increasingly tight, which is to say good for Dems. Do you feel like there are more pathways to flip the Senate than have been, I guess, established in the median narrative thus far? Is that overly optimistic thinking? No, I think that like the six months ago, three months ago, the idea was unless you win Maine and hold Michigan, it's going to be hard to take the Senate back, maybe impossible. And I don't think that's true anymore. Chuck Schumer said something in an interview, I think with the Washington Post a week or two ago, when we were like deeper in the Abdul Al-Sahead recrimination. Oh, are we past that now? I feel like it's on. I feel like it's dying down a bit. I feel like that was the last week thing. Oh, okay. Like buried in that story, he acknowledged that like throughout the story, he said we have

34:28to win Michigan, we're going to win Michigan is important. But he said like there are paths to the majority without Michigan. And you know, I think people are being a little oversensitive, people kind of want to maybe book evidence to build a case for being stabbed in the back if Abdul Al-Sahead loses to say it's because Democrats really weren't fully in support of him. I think Chuck Schumer was just acknowledging the mathematical reality that a few months ago, Poland was tighter. And now it's opened up in Alaska, in Texas, in Ohio, in Iowa, as you mentioned. North Carolina. North Carolina seems to have been a lock for months at this point, right? And so like now if Democrats were on the table, you're looking at like a 53 or 4 seats or something. Okay. Simmer down. No, but I mean like, like, but it's a real thing. You know, Nate Silver, it does the best kind of forecasting, right?

35:29And I think he's now in a part of the crooked media empire is just a note. And I think he said that like, you know, the Senate polling looks like what would have been like viewed as a fantasy just a few months ago. Well, in part because Trump has made the landscapes a tonightmare for Republicans. But wait, more importantly, did you, did you see that Chuck Grassley tweeted out a picture of Rob Sand? Oh, I sure did. Yeah. Chuck Grassley went to the archives of days, didn't confuse or whatever. That's a deep 90s magazine cut for those of you who celebrate. Uh, yeah, Chuck Grassley, pro, I mean, you know, Chuck Grassley's Twitter feed is his own podcast. But yeah, I'm glad he's like looking at black and white art shots with Rob Sand for on all of our behalf. Um, I am interested in a phenomenon that seems like it could, I don't know, shape races, maybe more house races than Senate races, um, which is the, the, the, the, the, the chill

36:30that is washing over red state America. Not purple states, not swing states that people have been focused on. But the way in which Trump has so demolished his party's platform in the course of the last year, that even the people who are sort of died in the wool, maga, um, acolytes are like either something their nose or maybe even staying home. I want to talk about ranchers in this special agricultural edition of, of runaway country. Um, ranchers are really mad at Trump. And they are traditionally the kind of core of his base, right? Both in terms of like the American imagination and the political reality, like the great American West and up, you know, the sort of like rancher mentality has found a home or at least maga has tried to co up that home. And I am sort of shocked by the actions of the Trump administration in the last week for people who haven't been following this issue. Beef prices are elevated in this country. Some would say very high in part because of external factors that have little to do with,

37:33you know, Trump booby traps. But also because of, you know, a host of a cascade of elements having to do very much with Trump, including feed prices, fertilizer, farm equipment and the rest. So beef prices are high. And Trump occasionally emerges from his like, cocoon of hate to pretend like he cares about affordability and did so a week ago and said, you know what we're going to start doing? Because beef prices are too high. We're going to start importing mystery meat at cheaper prices with relaxed tariffs. And people are like, well, where's the mystery meat coming from, dude? Nobody knows. But this beef price is going to be cheaper than American made beef, which has pissed off the cattle ranching industry. And they have been vocal about it. They are unhappy with this decision. They are just trying to find their footing after a couple years of a diminished herd. And they're angry. Do you think, Brian, that the, I guess, hat tip towards affordability and helping Americans with hamburger meat prices?

38:36Trump's pardon the metaphor, pissing off a core part of the Trump base, which is to say cattle ranchers and ag, aghens, if you will. I think if you want to look at it mathematically, Trump is essentially making a bet that the beef price is annoyed millions and millions of people who like to eat beef in this country. And there aren't that many cattle ranchers in the country. And they're not necessarily super, like, you know, they're probably not going to be the difference maker in a place like Texas or whatever. He doesn't just extend past that though. I'm maybe I'm being a little bit too sort of theoretical. But like American beef is like, like general motors. Yeah. Yeah. And people hear this and they see this and they're like, well, wait, why is you doing that? And I just, to me, it seems like the kind of thing that pissed people who aren't even cattle ranchers off. Yeah. I can definitely see that in like there isn't a whole lot of cattle ranching in Texas funny enough. They just kind of all think they're cowboys. And so like, there's definitely more people in Texas who would find this offensive.

39:39And it's not, you know, it's not just the small population of ranchers there or whatever. And I take the point. I think his bet is really something more like I have pissed off. I've done things that should have pissed off farmers every year. I've been president, which is now five and a half years, right? And they don't leave me. They like, you know, they remain like a loyal and reliable voting base because they like me for other reasons. And so I'm going to take them for granted again and try to do something that eases the pain point that's afflicting people broadly. And if I can get, I mean, he's not he's not talking in terms of percentages or whatever. But if I get point zero, one percent of people who are upset about the price of beef, right to chill out about it, that's thousands and thousands of votes or something like that. I mean, I think that's a rough calculation. I think it's unfortunate for him that he made Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Health and Human Services Secretary to prefigure a huge crisis of confidence and the safety of our food. So that when the news comes, don't worry, beef prices are going down because we're bringing in

40:43mystery beef. Everyone's like, okay, another way for me to get explosive diarrhea. Well, that's so funny that you say that because the other piece of it to placate the ranchers, is that Trump has decided he's proposed a new policy wherein ranchers can bypass inspection, USDA inspection of their meat at processing facilities and instead process their meat at their own facilities, which presumably do not have to go through the same rigorous health and safety inspections. An idea that was reportedly proposed to Trump by Glenn Beck. Yes, Brian, in this season of foodborne illness and explosive diarrhea, what could go wrong by letting people process meat in unregulated facilities? Yeah, I mean, I like a medium rare steak more than most people I think, but like I will be trying to get those from sources I trust and if I can, I will be cooking them

41:44past medium rare. That's going to be a well done steak this opportunity. It should be a jetteliner house. But like I think there is something actually profound here is that like there's no dial that says prices down and everyone gets like excited about the future all of a sudden. Like a lot of things are going wrong and they interact with each other and it's not like people haven't noticed that that there's many food recalls that there's a lot of foodborne illness happening and that it has something to do with the way Trump is running the country. And like maybe this brings us back to to where we started where Trump can't do anything rational. If it means subordinating his whims and his desire to be seen as the most powerful. But like what he's doing here is saying, hey, tariffs make prices go up. So instead of tariffing things, I'm going to like actually bring things in cheaper and it's going to bring prices down and that will make people less unhappy. And like

42:45what he could do is he could like if he could appease his friends in the cattle ranching community. But just lower tariffs on Canada and everyone else. And it would bring prices down across the board. And he wouldn't have to like worry about mystery meat and home cuts. Yeah, this specific of steer. But he refuses to be rational about things or to admit that his the thing he claims to believe about economic policy that tariffs are great for revenue and for manufacturing and for this and for that is like not true, not born out by reality has not been like the experienced who had he would have to admit he was wrong. And he would have to give up a huge source of corruption. Like he uses the tariffs to extort extort companies extort companies try to extort foreign governments. And and if that goes away, then he feels less powerful. So he won't do it. What folly? More of my conversation with Brian in just a moment. But first, at Crooked, we believe the answer

43:47to rising right wing authoritarianism is a big welcoming fun pro democracy movement. And that is why we want you to join us at Crooked con this November. Crooked con comes just after the midterms in Washington, DC from November 5th to 7th as a chance for everybody to gather in one place in real life to commiserate and learn from each other to politely disagree and sometimes impolitely disagree. Join us for more panels across bigger stages, candidate forums, live shows and interviews, organizing events and a drink or six. We cannot wait to see you there. Head to Crooked con.com for tickets, line up announcements and more. Runaway countries brought to you by forkful. Eating well can be difficult when life gets busy. Finding time for meal planning or cooking is a challenge. Most meal kits are promise promise convenience, but they require prep and cleanup, take out and process foods, often sacrifice quality ingredients and tastes. But what about meals that prioritize flavor function and health?

44:49Zero seed oils, chef cooked, fresh, never frozen, ready to eat meals made with high quality premium proteins, grass-fed bison, wild-cut salmon and fresh vegetables. There are delicious menus that fit your lifestyle and meal preferences, including gluten-free options, dairy-free, keto, plant-based GLP1 and low-carb options. Forkful, looks, tastes and smells amazing, who doesn't want to try chimichurri filet mignon I do. Can I get that delivered next week? I'll get back to you. Explore their plans and their menu of fresh, ready-to-eat meals at forkfulmeals.com and use code Alex to get 50% off your first order. That's forkfulmeals.com slash Alex and use promo code Alex for 50% off. Thanks to Forkful for sponsoring this episode. Head to forkfulmeals.com, backslashallix for 50% off your first order, today. I'm Nate Silver. I'm Galen Drook. And I'm Claremalone. We're back. This time with our friends at Crooked Media for a new show called Still Counting. Yeah, numbers are hard. Take ser easy. And frankly,

45:53numbers have only gotten harder. What does the data actually say? How do we reconcile that? What are the other things that we're seeing in American politics and around the world? And how do we use that data to understand or maybe even dare to predict the future of American politics? New episodes every Wednesday, starting September 9th. Subscribe to Still Counting on youtube.com slash at Still Counting podcast or wherever you get your podcast. The bull work obtained some audio from GOP congressman from Oklahoma, the blue blue state of Oklahoma, JK, the deep red state of Oklahoma, Stephanie Bice, speaking to a group of campus Republicans. And she's talking about the renaming of Lake Ontario as Lake America, and the fatigue that has set in among some of the people that she has been speaking to. And these would be red state voters. Let's take a listen. The challenge that we have is that we have to get over the narrative that I like this guy.

46:56So I'm going to vote for the Democrat because I'm telling you right now, I'm sharing it already. And what happens is that will impact me because the other two things are, two things believe they're happening. They're going to vote for the Democrat and they may split ticket and vote for me and few others. Or this is my bigger fear right now. People don't give vote. That I think is a very interesting dynamic. And I wonder whether you think one is more likely than the other split ticket voting or people staying home. I mean, I wonder in red state America, if you are disgusted by what is, you know, a perception that the Democrats have been co-opted by socialists and you can't vote for them. So you're not going to do a split ticket. But you also look at what Trump's done to the country and the economy. And you're like, I can no fucking way. You stay at home. That hurts Trump. That hurts Republican candidates. And it really does hurt, I think, some house candidates. I mean, the Senate map is what it is. And we've talked about that. But I just sort of wonder how plausible that dynamic is in your eyes. It's super plausible. We haven't talked about this. But but Trump is planning to have a convention.

48:01Oh, yes. We will talk about that. That's all about him. And you know, when they first started talking about doing this, I think last year, I actually thought it might not be a bad idea for them because their turnout collapses when Trump isn't on the ballot. And then as he gets unpopular, but it's also not on the ballot, it collapses further. So there was some logic to the idea of trying to make people feel like this is more of a regular presidential election, get people to associate voting for their incumbent Congressperson or for the Senate candidate with voting for Trump. But things are much different when you're at 45% approval than when you're at 35% approval. And now the dynamic is backwards. And of course, the convention is going to be reminding people about him instead of like anything that might make them feel better about Republicans. So it might like compound their disgust. And I like, I think that yeah, a Republican turnout collapses possible. I think that like the way they're running against people like Abdullah Sayed.

49:02And just kind of like talking about Democrats in general is both very extreme and conveys a level of desperation to terrify their voters into coming out to vote. But that's in a way, an admission that they haven't done anything to make those voters want to show up. And all they can do now is hope that they can say that things will be so horrible with Democrats win so much communism. So many, you know, male fashion models in office running state of Iowa. But like, but I biceps comments correct me if I'm wrong. Maybe you said this already like her point was sort of like we're doing all these stupid things in a climate where people are unhappy about the economy about prices. And we, and so we renamed Lake Ontario Lake America, like those kinds of tactics like to recall the the carnivore about about the government operating on memes and throwing shade is like those might go down okay when people are basically feeling

50:03fine about how the country's going overall. But when it's all that's on offer when Trump has degraded the country and and and and the the only sop he offers people is to try to kick Canadians in the teeth. It doesn't it doesn't make people feel good anymore. It's like no, no, no, no, that that was just icing on the cake. But where's the cake? Right. It's just a bunch of flower sugar and butter. I guess there's not flour and ice and butter and sugar. We need we need we need the where's the beef quite literally. Can I let's talk about this convention, which is I think one of the most ill conceived ideas. I mean, he's in a season of ill conceived ideas. Politico has a great poll. I don't know, it's like a straw poll out today. More than a political survey of more than 70 Republican candidates and members revealed that most either do not plan to attend or are still weighing whether to go dozens more decline. This is to the convention. Dozens more decline to share their plans. Some cited prior obligations like needing to wash

51:04their hair that Friday night, just kidding. They didn't say that. Such as fundraisers or events in their district that were planned before the convention was scheduled in June. Others had personal conflicts like weddings and family events and still others raised qualms about the five figure minimum fees that party officials want attending lawmakers to pony up. Like, first of all, this dude has a 32% approval rating. He's doing everything he can to seemingly sabotage his own party's chances. Then they have this completely ill conceived convention scheduled for September 9th, which will, I don't think, help anybody. And they want them to pay tens of thousands of dollars to attend to the thing. What? There's another aspect of this, which is that he's got hundreds of millions of dollars already. Yes. In his super PAC. He has 400 million dollars in his super PAC, that he has not spent on any of these vulnerable Republicans, trumped by his own estimations as it's 850 million. No one will ever know because is anybody going to see that money?

52:05Right. And I think the intimation is if he's going to spend it, it's going to be to remind people about how great he is, right? And people don't want that. They want to be like, they want distance from him at this point. And so it's kind of like a, we need the money, but not the way you want to spend it on us. Kind of dilemma for them. I like, I kind of think that there is something to, there's at least a theory out there, something to what you said about him kind of sabotaging his own party is that if he thinks he's like, like, like Congress has gone, that there is some value in making it clear that Republicans in Congress didn't run their campaigns the way he wanted them to. The Supreme Court didn't do what he wanted them to so that when they get wiped out, he can say, it wasn't me. It was because they didn't do what I said to do. And kind of blame their losses, which really are his fault for governing this way on them. That's in a weird way, like a bullish proposition because it means that it's like, maybe he doesn't, he's not going to try so hard to

53:09steal the election. If he's, if it might in some ways just be better for him to let them get wiped out and then blame them for it. But like, I don't know, he seems, he's. That's a long list checkers. That's it. That's, I mean, that's chess, not checkers. Yeah. He's definitely like, he's, he's moving in both directions simultaneously. And I think that we're kind of all awaiting for like October to figure out which, which the devil, the devil or the angel, I don't know who's what. I guess the angels, the one is the Trump that accepts this party's loss so that he can use it as a fuck you, come up in mechanism, come January. And then the devil is the Trump that just wants to steal the election so he can retain power. Yeah. I mean, the former is certainly like a better for us. Well, it allows a free and fair election, which is good for democracy. Exactly. I do just to sort of drill down into that big picture point before we go. The idea that Trump is actually sabotaging the party is really interesting. Maybe it's for theoretically. Maybe it would be so

54:12that he could say told just so like you need to listen to me. But also it seems to me that part of what he's doing right now and part of the reason he hasn't spent any of the hundreds of millions of dollars he has and he isn't helping out Republicans when they need him is because he's trying to consolidate. He's just trying to make the party his own like that that that absolute feelty is the most essential task of the hour. It doesn't matter if he has control of the legislative branch, although I would argue it does. But maybe in his mind, it's literally just about the carrot and the stick and making sure that when when the when the dice are rolled and the bets are in, the only people left at the craps table are the ones who are a legent to Donald Trump and that it's a real purge of the GOP that there are no moderates or independent thinkers left whatsoever. And that that's his ultimate goal for the last two years of being in office. Yeah, I mean the thing is he is almost entirely accomplished

55:13that already like how many yes. And so he is definitely like he seems to have dialed down his illusions to running for a third term and seems to be more publicly accepting of the fact that he's not going to run again. But he also has like simultaneously has like ratcheted up his interest in basically controlling the Republican party's future. I don't necessarily think that like a good way for him to go about that is to contribute to Republicans getting wiped out. Oh, I'm not saying this is a good idea. Well, I just need to say that like there is there is a scenario where it's true like mechanically when when this majority turns into minority, the members left over will be the more right wing ones. And so in generally more Trump loyal members. But if Trump loses his selection at 35% and then heads out of office even lower than that,

56:20that's when you get into like, hey, we need to George W. Bush this guy kind of place. And so he's like I don't know like really testing the power of the personality. If he's thinking, you know what, one of the upsides to losing this election is that I'll have even more control still over this party. Like he's got a lot. And if I were if I were him trying to inhabit that diseased mind of his, I would I would want to try to stem my losses here knowing that I was going to lose rather than be like, you know what? Like just just clear out all the underbrush. And just I just want a tiny group of total Trump loyalists so that I can feel good inside. Total fucking lunatics. I will say if he does succeed in this battle with Canada and win and manage to annex Canada as a 51st state, I think that would technically clean me in that Mark Carney could run for president come to 2028. Just think about that. Just an idea. Just came up with it just now probably completely incorrect. So

57:23how does it wait? No, that's you have to be a natural born citizen. Well, do you have can you can but if the country's changed its borders, does that retroactively make you a natural born citizen? I feel like there's like an expo. We'll test these propositions. It's the silver lining. It's kind of like if if you rob a bank and then they make robbing banks legal, you're still there's the next. Brand fathered in. I don't think you are. I think that I think that okay Brian, you know, I'm just I'm just I'm just spitball in here, man. In the age of Trump, what do facts? I was spitball right back at you. I respect it and I and I appreciate it. Brian Boitler in the new pod studio with even better brighter ideas and analysis. Didn't think it possible, but we've seen the proof. Thank you. Thank you for doing this episode of Runaway Country Brian, you're the best. Yeah, I can't wait to come back. That's our show for this week. Please don't forget to check out the show and our rapid response videos on our YouTube channel Runaway Country with Alex Wagner. And if you're somehow not sick of me yet, take a look at my sub stack. How the hell with Alex Wagner?

58:28Last but certainly not least, if you've been impacted directly by the Trump administration or its policies, send us an email or a one minute voice note at Runaway Country at Crooked.com and we may be in touch to feature your story. Big thanks to everybody who has written in already. Runaway Country is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Alonam and Kovsky, Emma Alek Frank, Haley Jones, and Anisha Banerjee with help from Eric Shude, Kenny Moffat, and Charlotte Landis. Production support from Ben Hethkote, Katie Long, Adrian Hill, and Matt DeGroat. Our staff is proudly unionized with the writer's skill of America East. I'm Nate Silver, I'm Gailan Drook, and I'm Claire Malone. We're back this time with our friends at Crooked Media for a new show called Still Counting. Yeah, numbers are hard, take ser easy, and frankly, numbers have only gotten harder. What does the data actually say? How do we reconcile that with the other things that we're seeing in American politics and around the world? And how do we use that data to understand or maybe even

59:29dare to predict the future of American politics? New episodes every Wednesday starting September 9th, subscribe to Still Counting on youtube.com, slash at Still Counting Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.