Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello

In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy! __ Follow Alf: https://x.com/MacroAlf  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance  __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london  __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):  http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):  vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:42) What’s Happening with Monetary Policy? (07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing? (10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening (13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse (14:51) VanEck Ad (15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse (19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits (24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild (29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders (30:04) VanEck Ad (35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth (36:59) European Markets (40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets (43:54) Commodities Outlook (47:03) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance